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On September 18 2019 18:20 MyLovelyLurker wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 16:43 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 13:06 Pandain wrote:
Since April or May 2018 serral has either won every offline tournament or got eliminated by the eventual champion.
Anyone who doesn't say that is the craziest period of consistency and yes dominance is just delusional at this point.
But yeah I mean this debate has been the same for a year now and no one is gonna change their mind Numbers disagree with you, aside from WCS dominance which the other players don't have access to Serral hasn't been more dominant than Inno, Maru etc. Didn't know your result becomes more impressive if the player that beats you happens to win the tournament - is that one of the new criteria Serral fans made up to make him look as good as possible? If you're that desperate to find things that make him look dominant then maybe he actually is not that dominant. You are the delusional one. Which specific numbers are you referring to ? Like I said before, since Jan18, Serral is 80%+ winrate in matches *vs Koreans*, Maru is 65% (66% vs 60% in games respectively). Do you have alternative evidence to offer ?
I'm not talking about some cherry-picked statistics - I'm talking about the actual success they had at tournaments.
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On September 18 2019 18:57 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 18:20 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 16:43 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 13:06 Pandain wrote:
Since April or May 2018 serral has either won every offline tournament or got eliminated by the eventual champion.
Anyone who doesn't say that is the craziest period of consistency and yes dominance is just delusional at this point.
But yeah I mean this debate has been the same for a year now and no one is gonna change their mind Numbers disagree with you, aside from WCS dominance which the other players don't have access to Serral hasn't been more dominant than Inno, Maru etc. Didn't know your result becomes more impressive if the player that beats you happens to win the tournament - is that one of the new criteria Serral fans made up to make him look as good as possible? If you're that desperate to find things that make him look dominant then maybe he actually is not that dominant. You are the delusional one. Which specific numbers are you referring to ? Like I said before, since Jan18, Serral is 80%+ winrate in matches *vs Koreans*, Maru is 65% (66% vs 60% in games respectively). Do you have alternative evidence to offer ? I'm not talking about some cherry-picked statistics - I'm talking about the actual success they had at tournaments.
Winrate vs Koreans cherry-picked ? Winrates are literally assumption-free (until you condition them), that's probability 101. You don't think a high winrate is a necessary condition to win tournaments over the long run ? If anything, these numbers are conservative, so as not to skew stats positively by including winrate vs foreigners.
Also funny you should say that in the Power Rank thread, which is literally opening with these arguments '(but also in his losing streak to Solar (who beat him 6-2 in maps over three different series)' to assess rankings. But now in your own words...
On September 17 2019 23:32 Charoisaur wrote:
Yeah surprise surprise - if you avoid the real competition you tend to lose less.
Just gonna leave this here  ... More seriously, you're otherwise a reasonable guy, dismissing hard data like historical frequency of wins with a simple sleight of hand is not a particularly good look. Especially when claiming unreasonableness from the 'other side'.
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On September 18 2019 18:20 MyLovelyLurker wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 16:43 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 13:06 Pandain wrote:
Since April or May 2018 serral has either won every offline tournament or got eliminated by the eventual champion.
Anyone who doesn't say that is the craziest period of consistency and yes dominance is just delusional at this point.
But yeah I mean this debate has been the same for a year now and no one is gonna change their mind Numbers disagree with you, aside from WCS dominance which the other players don't have access to Serral hasn't been more dominant than Inno, Maru etc. Didn't know your result becomes more impressive if the player that beats you happens to win the tournament - is that one of the new criteria Serral fans made up to make him look as good as possible? If you're that desperate to find things that make him look dominant then maybe he actually is not that dominant. You are the delusional one. Which specific numbers are you referring to ? Like I said before, since Jan18, Serral is 80%+ winrate in matches *vs Koreans*, Maru is 65% (66% vs 60% in games respectively). Do you have alternative evidence to offer ?
I think compared to other player's peaks in LotV, Serral's is the best but not by a long shot. Inno had very similar winrate in his peak (over far more games) while Maru and Rogue (especially if Maru wins this GSL) have been around as good in terms of winning a high percentage of big tournaments during their peak. Arguably, in 2018 Maru had a better peak in terms of the prestige of the tournaments he won (this depends on how you value WCS, which I value as being worth a GSL semifinal).
That said, what Serral has that is special is that he has kept up his peak for a very long time. Maru has as well (considering he might win 2/3 GSL this year) but has looked a lot more shaky with considerably worse winrates. Innovation and Rogue both had a much shorter peak than Serral too, even though it was arguably nearly as bright when it happened. In summary, there have been players who matched a component of Serral's peak but I don't think anyone has matched all of them, particularly his consistency.
However, to say people are delusional for questioning whether he has greatest peak I think is not fair. It's not really delusional to question whether his peak is the greatest because the competition isn't as deep among other reasons. If Maru won 3 GSLs in a row in HotS, he would be called bonjwa or GOAT but many people point out that nowadays GSL isn't what it was. If so, they have to apply this the same way to Serral; they can't have their cake and eat it too. In spite of these considerations, I believe he still has the greatest pea.
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On September 18 2019 20:17 Anc13nt wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 18:20 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 16:43 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 13:06 Pandain wrote:
Since April or May 2018 serral has either won every offline tournament or got eliminated by the eventual champion.
Anyone who doesn't say that is the craziest period of consistency and yes dominance is just delusional at this point.
But yeah I mean this debate has been the same for a year now and no one is gonna change their mind Numbers disagree with you, aside from WCS dominance which the other players don't have access to Serral hasn't been more dominant than Inno, Maru etc. Didn't know your result becomes more impressive if the player that beats you happens to win the tournament - is that one of the new criteria Serral fans made up to make him look as good as possible? If you're that desperate to find things that make him look dominant then maybe he actually is not that dominant. You are the delusional one. Which specific numbers are you referring to ? Like I said before, since Jan18, Serral is 80%+ winrate in matches *vs Koreans*, Maru is 65% (66% vs 60% in games respectively). Do you have alternative evidence to offer ? I think compared to other player's peaks in LotV, Serral's is the best but not by a long shot. Inno had very similar winrate in his peak (over far more games) while Maru and Rogue (especially if Maru wins this GSL) have been around as good in terms of winning a high percentage of big tournaments during their peak. Arguably, in 2018 Maru had a better peak in terms of the prestige of the tournaments he won (this depends on how you value WCS, which I value as being worth a GSL semifinal). That said, what Serral has that is special is that he has kept up his peak for a very long time. Maru has as well (considering he might win 2/3 GSL this year) but has looked a lot more shaky with considerably worse winrates. Innovation and Rogue both had a much shorter peak than Serral too, even though it was arguably nearly as bright when it happened. In summary, there have been players who matched a component of Serral's peak but I don't think anyone has matched all of them, particularly his consistency. However, to say people are delusional for questioning whether he has greatest peak I think is not fair. It's not really delusional to question whether his peak is the greatest because the competition isn't as deep among other reasons. If Maru won 3 GSLs in a row in HotS, he would be called bonjwa or GOAT but many people point out that nowadays GSL isn't what it was. If so, they have to apply this the same way to Serral; they can't have their cake and eat it too. In spite of these considerations, I believe he still has the greatest pea.
I believe these are great points, thanks for making them. Precisely as you mention, no single player will be uniformly the best across a wide range of estimators, which is why you need several of them, maybe by considering several time horizons; and due to variance biases in Aligulac reverting to vs Kor winrates over X amount of time makes the most sense.
On the final point, it's relatively easy to denoise this, either by using an 'average top 8 korean' as a baseline for Aligulac ranking (differences in ELO don't drift over time), or by calling on some predictive value of winrates and make relatively safe statements like 'conditional on reaching Ro8, which he's always done, Serral would have more than 50% chance of winning GSL should he enter it, which means he'd win 1 if not 2 in a full season, with high probability'.
When I get a sec and I'm done writing a couple papers, I'll fire up Python and do the data science for other players - Serral looks slightly better than Maru but like you said, I am curious as to how Innovation, Life or Rogue have fared historically on that measure.
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On September 18 2019 20:15 MyLovelyLurker wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 18:57 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 18:20 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 16:43 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 13:06 Pandain wrote:
Since April or May 2018 serral has either won every offline tournament or got eliminated by the eventual champion.
Anyone who doesn't say that is the craziest period of consistency and yes dominance is just delusional at this point.
But yeah I mean this debate has been the same for a year now and no one is gonna change their mind Numbers disagree with you, aside from WCS dominance which the other players don't have access to Serral hasn't been more dominant than Inno, Maru etc. Didn't know your result becomes more impressive if the player that beats you happens to win the tournament - is that one of the new criteria Serral fans made up to make him look as good as possible? If you're that desperate to find things that make him look dominant then maybe he actually is not that dominant. You are the delusional one. Which specific numbers are you referring to ? Like I said before, since Jan18, Serral is 80%+ winrate in matches *vs Koreans*, Maru is 65% (66% vs 60% in games respectively). Do you have alternative evidence to offer ? I'm not talking about some cherry-picked statistics - I'm talking about the actual success they had at tournaments. Winrate vs Koreans cherry-picked ? Winrates are literally assumption-free (until you condition them), that's probability 101. You don't think a high winrate is a necessary condition to win tournaments over the long run ? If anything, these numbers are conservative, so as not to skew stats positively by including winrate vs foreigners. Also funny you should say that in the Power Rank thread, which is literally opening with these arguments '(but also in his losing streak to Solar (who beat him 6-2 in maps over three different series)' to assess rankings. But now in your own words... Show nested quote +On September 17 2019 23:32 Charoisaur wrote:
Yeah surprise surprise - if you avoid the real competition you tend to lose less.
Just gonna leave this here ... More seriously, you're otherwise a reasonable guy, dismissing hard data like historical frequency of wins with a simple sleight of hand is not a particularly good look. Especially when claiming unreasonableness from the 'other side'.
Well, Maru faces koreans much more often and thus has a much larger sample size of games.
Keeping up a high winrate over a high number of games is harder than having a high winrate over a low number of games. Thus the stats you looked at naturally favor Serral.
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1. Serral started winning in 2018 and he is already earned the second most price money in SC2 history.
2. He has held the top spot on Aligulac for more than 1.5 years now.
3. Gameplay wise is the closest to flawless anyone has ever been in SC2.
Arguing that is not the number one SC2 player of all time is a bit absurd in my opinion.
The argument should instead be about who is number two, behind Serral.
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On September 18 2019 20:15 MyLovelyLurker wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 18:57 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 18:20 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 16:43 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 13:06 Pandain wrote:
Since April or May 2018 serral has either won every offline tournament or got eliminated by the eventual champion.
Anyone who doesn't say that is the craziest period of consistency and yes dominance is just delusional at this point.
But yeah I mean this debate has been the same for a year now and no one is gonna change their mind Numbers disagree with you, aside from WCS dominance which the other players don't have access to Serral hasn't been more dominant than Inno, Maru etc. Didn't know your result becomes more impressive if the player that beats you happens to win the tournament - is that one of the new criteria Serral fans made up to make him look as good as possible? If you're that desperate to find things that make him look dominant then maybe he actually is not that dominant. You are the delusional one. Which specific numbers are you referring to ? Like I said before, since Jan18, Serral is 80%+ winrate in matches *vs Koreans*, Maru is 65% (66% vs 60% in games respectively). Do you have alternative evidence to offer ? I'm not talking about some cherry-picked statistics - I'm talking about the actual success they had at tournaments. Winrate vs Koreans cherry-picked ? Winrates are literally assumption-free (until you condition them), that's probability 101. You don't think a high winrate is a necessary condition to win tournaments over the long run ? If anything, these numbers are conservative, so as not to skew stats positively by including winrate vs foreigners. Also funny you should say that in the Power Rank thread, which is literally opening with these arguments '(but also in his losing streak to Solar (who beat him 6-2 in maps over three different series)' to assess rankings. But now in your own words... Show nested quote +On September 17 2019 23:32 Charoisaur wrote:
Yeah surprise surprise - if you avoid the real competition you tend to lose less.
Just gonna leave this here ... More seriously, you're otherwise a reasonable guy, dismissing hard data like historical frequency of wins with a simple sleight of hand is not a particularly good look. Especially when claiming unreasonableness from the 'other side'.
Several people including myself have been calling out mr. Charoisaur to provide any conclusive quantitative justification for their claims, yet instead they consistently respond with fake facts like:
On September 18 2019 20:50 Charoisaur wrote:
Keeping up a high winrate over a high number of games is harder than having a high winrate over a low number of games.
This is mathematically and historically incorrect. And there are more like that, including my favorite "GSL is by far the most competitive and hardest competition in the world" and "to prove you are no1 you have to travel to Korea and live there for 3 months". Wait and see them respond to the easiest points in this message (if respond at all). Don't waste your time.
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On September 18 2019 21:08 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:Several people including myself have been calling out mr. Charoisaur to provide any conclusive quantitative justification for their claims, yet instead they consistently respond with fake facts like: Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 20:50 Charoisaur wrote:
Keeping up a high winrate over a high number of games is harder than having a high winrate over a low number of games.
This is mathematically and historically incorrect. And there are more like that, including my favorite "GSL is by far the most competitive and hardest competition in the world" and "to prove you are no1 you have to travel to Korea and live there for 3 months". Wait and see them respond to the easiest points in this message (if respond at all). Don't waste your time.
Yes, it does look like we went from 'winrates are irrelevant and nitpicky hurr durr' to 'let me argue about the partial derivative of confidence interval width, with respect to sample size' pretty quickly, didn't we.
For the benefit of other posters I did do the math quickly and find a corrective impact to historical winrates of 1% to 3% maximum (see en.wikipedia.org), as opposed to Serral's 15% lead; so it's safe to say that we're done here.
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On September 18 2019 20:59 MockHamill wrote:
1. Serral started winning in 2018 and he is already earned the second most price money in SC2 history.
2. He has held the top spot on Aligulac for more than 1.5 years now.
3. Gameplay wise is the closest to flawless anyone has ever been in SC2.
Arguing that is not the number one SC2 player of all time is a bit absurd in my opinion.
The argument should instead be about who is number two, behind Serral.
He is definitely close to number 1 in terms of skill but nearly all GOAT discussions relate to how many tournaments a player has won. In that regard, I think he is probably around to 10-12th place at the moment (haven't thought that placement through but that is my initial guess).
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nvm this is not going anywhere.
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Canada8991 Posts
On September 18 2019 21:42 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:
nvm this is not going anywhere.
Nah I'm sure we are just one of two post away from all understanding each other.
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On September 18 2019 21:26 MyLovelyLurker wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 21:08 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:Several people including myself have been calling out mr. Charoisaur to provide any conclusive quantitative justification for their claims, yet instead they consistently respond with fake facts like: On September 18 2019 20:50 Charoisaur wrote:
Keeping up a high winrate over a high number of games is harder than having a high winrate over a low number of games.
This is mathematically and historically incorrect. And there are more like that, including my favorite "GSL is by far the most competitive and hardest competition in the world" and "to prove you are no1 you have to travel to Korea and live there for 3 months". Wait and see them respond to the easiest points in this message (if respond at all). Don't waste your time. Yes, it does look like we went from 'winrates are irrelevant and nitpicky hurr durr' to 'let me argue about the partial derivative of confidence interval width, with respect to sample size' pretty quickly, didn't we. For the benefit of other posters I did do the math quickly and find a corrective impact to historical winrates of 1% to 3% maximum (see en.wikipedia.org), as opposed to Serral's 15% lead; so it's safe to say that we're done here.
Thanks for that, the numbers speak for themselves.
For me Maru and Serral are neck in neck, the upcoming GSL games, Blizzcon and homestory will really make things clearer. In the end no one has pointed out any koreans that match Serrals consistency only looking at tournments with korean opposition which also says a lot. That is without even measuring in wcs at all, measure it in and even if you value wcs very low Serral comes out as the most dominant player bar Maru.
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On September 18 2019 21:08 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 20:15 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 18:57 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 18:20 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 16:43 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 13:06 Pandain wrote:
Since April or May 2018 serral has either won every offline tournament or got eliminated by the eventual champion.
Anyone who doesn't say that is the craziest period of consistency and yes dominance is just delusional at this point.
But yeah I mean this debate has been the same for a year now and no one is gonna change their mind Numbers disagree with you, aside from WCS dominance which the other players don't have access to Serral hasn't been more dominant than Inno, Maru etc. Didn't know your result becomes more impressive if the player that beats you happens to win the tournament - is that one of the new criteria Serral fans made up to make him look as good as possible? If you're that desperate to find things that make him look dominant then maybe he actually is not that dominant. You are the delusional one. Which specific numbers are you referring to ? Like I said before, since Jan18, Serral is 80%+ winrate in matches *vs Koreans*, Maru is 65% (66% vs 60% in games respectively). Do you have alternative evidence to offer ? I'm not talking about some cherry-picked statistics - I'm talking about the actual success they had at tournaments. Winrate vs Koreans cherry-picked ? Winrates are literally assumption-free (until you condition them), that's probability 101. You don't think a high winrate is a necessary condition to win tournaments over the long run ? If anything, these numbers are conservative, so as not to skew stats positively by including winrate vs foreigners. Also funny you should say that in the Power Rank thread, which is literally opening with these arguments '(but also in his losing streak to Solar (who beat him 6-2 in maps over three different series)' to assess rankings. But now in your own words... On September 17 2019 23:32 Charoisaur wrote:
Yeah surprise surprise - if you avoid the real competition you tend to lose less.
Just gonna leave this here ... More seriously, you're otherwise a reasonable guy, dismissing hard data like historical frequency of wins with a simple sleight of hand is not a particularly good look. Especially when claiming unreasonableness from the 'other side'. Several people including myself have been calling out mr. Charoisaur to provide any conclusive quantitative justification for their claims, yet instead they consistently respond with fake facts like: Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 20:50 Charoisaur wrote:
Keeping up a high winrate over a high number of games is harder than having a high winrate over a low number of games.
This is mathematically and historically incorrect. And there are more like that, including my favorite "GSL is by far the most competitive and hardest competition in the world" and "to prove you are no1 you have to travel to Korea and live there for 3 months". Wait and see them respond to the easiest points in this message (if respond at all). Don't waste your time.
This is getting funny. GSL has always universally been regarded as the most competitive competition in the world, only lately Serral fanboys have started claiming it's "not important" because they are so insecure and desperate in wanting to make him look as good as possible.
I already provided my "conclusive quantitative justification" multiple times with actual tournament results and not with some random meaningless winrates.
Out of the last 7 non-region locked premier events Serral has won 4. Impressive but not unprecended. Other players have done the same. The only reason you and others think he's literal starcraft jesus is because his results are boosted by WCS.
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On September 18 2019 20:59 MockHamill wrote:
1. Serral started winning in 2018 and he is already earned the second most price money in SC2 history.
2. He has held the top spot on Aligulac for more than 1.5 years now.
3. Gameplay wise is the closest to flawless anyone has ever been in SC2.
Arguing that is not the number one SC2 player of all time is a bit absurd in my opinion.
The argument should instead be about who is number two, behind Serral.
Prize money is a complete joke. Serral won $300K from one event, and gets four free tournaments a year with $20K for 1st place. And aligulac is more of a joke.
The only argument for Serral here is his gameplay. And even then it's not like he's dominated harder than INno, Mvp, Zest, Maru, Life etc at their peaks. They're actually pretty comparable.
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On September 18 2019 22:28 Shuffleblade wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 21:26 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 21:08 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:Several people including myself have been calling out mr. Charoisaur to provide any conclusive quantitative justification for their claims, yet instead they consistently respond with fake facts like: On September 18 2019 20:50 Charoisaur wrote:
Keeping up a high winrate over a high number of games is harder than having a high winrate over a low number of games.
This is mathematically and historically incorrect. And there are more like that, including my favorite "GSL is by far the most competitive and hardest competition in the world" and "to prove you are no1 you have to travel to Korea and live there for 3 months". Wait and see them respond to the easiest points in this message (if respond at all). Don't waste your time. Yes, it does look like we went from 'winrates are irrelevant and nitpicky hurr durr' to 'let me argue about the partial derivative of confidence interval width, with respect to sample size' pretty quickly, didn't we. For the benefit of other posters I did do the math quickly and find a corrective impact to historical winrates of 1% to 3% maximum (see en.wikipedia.org), as opposed to Serral's 15% lead; so it's safe to say that we're done here. Thanks for that, the numbers speak for themselves. For me Maru and Serral are neck in neck, the upcoming GSL games, Blizzcon and homestory will really make things clearer. In the end no one has pointed out any koreans that match Serrals consistency only looking at tournments with korean opposition which also says a lot. That is without even measuring in wcs at all, measure it in and even if you value wcs very low Serral comes out as the most dominant player bar Maru.
I recall beeing at somewhat the same point a year ago. Since then Serral has won a shitton and so has Maru ^^
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On September 18 2019 23:00 Charoisaur wrote:
This is getting funny. GSL has always universally been regarded as the most competitive competition in the world, only lately Serral fanboys have started claiming it's "not important" because they are so insecure and desperate in wanting to make him look as good as possible.
"Has been", as in the past tense 
Nowadays almost nobody thinks that anymore. Most people hold Blizzcon and IEM with much higher regard.
And the only "desperate" people in this thread (and all the others discussing pretty much the same thing) seem to be you and deacon
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On September 18 2019 23:00 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 21:08 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:On September 18 2019 20:15 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 18:57 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 18:20 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 16:43 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 13:06 Pandain wrote:
Since April or May 2018 serral has either won every offline tournament or got eliminated by the eventual champion.
Anyone who doesn't say that is the craziest period of consistency and yes dominance is just delusional at this point.
But yeah I mean this debate has been the same for a year now and no one is gonna change their mind Numbers disagree with you, aside from WCS dominance which the other players don't have access to Serral hasn't been more dominant than Inno, Maru etc. Didn't know your result becomes more impressive if the player that beats you happens to win the tournament - is that one of the new criteria Serral fans made up to make him look as good as possible? If you're that desperate to find things that make him look dominant then maybe he actually is not that dominant. You are the delusional one. Which specific numbers are you referring to ? Like I said before, since Jan18, Serral is 80%+ winrate in matches *vs Koreans*, Maru is 65% (66% vs 60% in games respectively). Do you have alternative evidence to offer ? I'm not talking about some cherry-picked statistics - I'm talking about the actual success they had at tournaments. Winrate vs Koreans cherry-picked ? Winrates are literally assumption-free (until you condition them), that's probability 101. You don't think a high winrate is a necessary condition to win tournaments over the long run ? If anything, these numbers are conservative, so as not to skew stats positively by including winrate vs foreigners. Also funny you should say that in the Power Rank thread, which is literally opening with these arguments '(but also in his losing streak to Solar (who beat him 6-2 in maps over three different series)' to assess rankings. But now in your own words... On September 17 2019 23:32 Charoisaur wrote:
Yeah surprise surprise - if you avoid the real competition you tend to lose less.
Just gonna leave this here ... More seriously, you're otherwise a reasonable guy, dismissing hard data like historical frequency of wins with a simple sleight of hand is not a particularly good look. Especially when claiming unreasonableness from the 'other side'. Several people including myself have been calling out mr. Charoisaur to provide any conclusive quantitative justification for their claims, yet instead they consistently respond with fake facts like: On September 18 2019 20:50 Charoisaur wrote:
Keeping up a high winrate over a high number of games is harder than having a high winrate over a low number of games.
This is mathematically and historically incorrect. And there are more like that, including my favorite "GSL is by far the most competitive and hardest competition in the world" and "to prove you are no1 you have to travel to Korea and live there for 3 months". Wait and see them respond to the easiest points in this message (if respond at all). Don't waste your time. This is getting funny. GSL has always universally been regarded as the most competitive competition in the world, only lately Serral fanboys have started claiming it's "not important" because they are so insecure and desperate in wanting to make him look as good as possible. I already provided my "conclusive quantitative justification" multiple times with actual tournament results and not with some random meaningless winrates. Out of the last 7 non-region locked premier events Serral has won 4. Impressive but not unprecended. Other players have done the same. The only reason you and others think he's literal starcraft jesus is because his results are boosted by WCS.
Great, then please show me what "other players" have done the same. Which players have played exclusively in tournaments against top koreans and won 4/7 and placed 1 RO8, 1 semifinal and one silver medal in the remaining three.
Sorry but you can't cherry pick results either, show me which player had a streak of seven tournaments in a row with results at least as good as Serrals. You say plenty of players have done that, then tell me their names and their streaks.
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On September 18 2019 23:11 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 23:00 Charoisaur wrote:
This is getting funny. GSL has always universally been regarded as the most competitive competition in the world, only lately Serral fanboys have started claiming it's "not important" because they are so insecure and desperate in wanting to make him look as good as possible.
"Has been", as in the past tense Nowadays almost nobody thinks that anymore. Most people hold Blizzcon and IEM with much higher regard. And the only "desperate" people in this thread (and all the others discussing pretty much the same thing) seem to be you and deacon
If you mean with "most people" only insecure Serral fanboys then yes.
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On September 18 2019 23:11 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 23:00 Charoisaur wrote:
This is getting funny. GSL has always universally been regarded as the most competitive competition in the world, only lately Serral fanboys have started claiming it's "not important" because they are so insecure and desperate in wanting to make him look as good as possible.
"Has been", as in the past tense Nowadays almost nobody thinks that anymore. Most people hold Blizzcon and IEM with much higher regard.And the only "desperate" people in this thread (and all the others discussing pretty much the same thing) seem to be you and deacon
They do? Since when? (The answer is since Serral won blizzcon and his fans needed a reason to overblow that result btw)
Blizzcon is somewhat arguable because of the hype and such, but IEM is literally the same players in GSL (plus Serral) except in a weekender instead of a starleague. I've never seen someone actually put IEM over GSL when soO, Rogue, or TY were champion. They probably would had Serral won it though.
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On September 18 2019 23:21 Shuffleblade wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2019 23:00 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 21:08 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:On September 18 2019 20:15 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 18:57 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 18:20 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On September 18 2019 16:43 Charoisaur wrote:On September 18 2019 13:06 Pandain wrote:
Since April or May 2018 serral has either won every offline tournament or got eliminated by the eventual champion.
Anyone who doesn't say that is the craziest period of consistency and yes dominance is just delusional at this point.
But yeah I mean this debate has been the same for a year now and no one is gonna change their mind Numbers disagree with you, aside from WCS dominance which the other players don't have access to Serral hasn't been more dominant than Inno, Maru etc. Didn't know your result becomes more impressive if the player that beats you happens to win the tournament - is that one of the new criteria Serral fans made up to make him look as good as possible? If you're that desperate to find things that make him look dominant then maybe he actually is not that dominant. You are the delusional one. Which specific numbers are you referring to ? Like I said before, since Jan18, Serral is 80%+ winrate in matches *vs Koreans*, Maru is 65% (66% vs 60% in games respectively). Do you have alternative evidence to offer ? I'm not talking about some cherry-picked statistics - I'm talking about the actual success they had at tournaments. Winrate vs Koreans cherry-picked ? Winrates are literally assumption-free (until you condition them), that's probability 101. You don't think a high winrate is a necessary condition to win tournaments over the long run ? If anything, these numbers are conservative, so as not to skew stats positively by including winrate vs foreigners. Also funny you should say that in the Power Rank thread, which is literally opening with these arguments '(but also in his losing streak to Solar (who beat him 6-2 in maps over three different series)' to assess rankings. But now in your own words... On September 17 2019 23:32 Charoisaur wrote:
Yeah surprise surprise - if you avoid the real competition you tend to lose less.
Just gonna leave this here ... More seriously, you're otherwise a reasonable guy, dismissing hard data like historical frequency of wins with a simple sleight of hand is not a particularly good look. Especially when claiming unreasonableness from the 'other side'. Several people including myself have been calling out mr. Charoisaur to provide any conclusive quantitative justification for their claims, yet instead they consistently respond with fake facts like: On September 18 2019 20:50 Charoisaur wrote:
Keeping up a high winrate over a high number of games is harder than having a high winrate over a low number of games.
This is mathematically and historically incorrect. And there are more like that, including my favorite "GSL is by far the most competitive and hardest competition in the world" and "to prove you are no1 you have to travel to Korea and live there for 3 months". Wait and see them respond to the easiest points in this message (if respond at all). Don't waste your time. This is getting funny. GSL has always universally been regarded as the most competitive competition in the world, only lately Serral fanboys have started claiming it's "not important" because they are so insecure and desperate in wanting to make him look as good as possible. I already provided my "conclusive quantitative justification" multiple times with actual tournament results and not with some random meaningless winrates. Out of the last 7 non-region locked premier events Serral has won 4. Impressive but not unprecended. Other players have done the same. The only reason you and others think he's literal starcraft jesus is because his results are boosted by WCS. Great, then please show me what "other players" have done the same. Which players have played exclusively in tournaments against top koreans and won 4/7 and placed 1 RO8, 1 semifinal and one silver medal in the remaining three. Sorry but you can't cherry pick results either, show me which player had a streak of seven tournaments in a row with results at least as good as Serrals. You say plenty of players have done that, then tell me their names and their streaks.
While I won't go deep into whatever statistical readings you might want, I did this in a thread not too long ago so I'll just copy what I wrote there
Serral went 3/8 in big/premier tournaments (with koreans only) in 18 months (although he reached at least ro8 in all of them).
Here are some examples of koreans doing equal/better in a smaller time frame, and none of them received the same hype as Serral. None of them are considered bonjwas.
INno went 4/10 in 9 months
Rogue went 4/6 in 8 months.
Maru went 4/7 in 7 months.
Zest went 3/7 in 8 months.
Mvp went 6/12 in 12 months
Life went 3/5 in 4 months.
And that's not even going into the fact that all of these (except Rogue) were winning starleagues not just weekenders.
Also an extra fun stat: Zest, Maru, Life, and Rogue made at least ro8 in each event during said streak. INno made ro8 in all but two.
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EPT
