On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
the people who don't think this is a matchfix simply don't grasp statistics or probability. i don't know much about gambling, but the OP laid out the data in a plain and detailed way about how the lines work and why they move in certain ways, and it's consistent with expert info i've read in the past. "maybe he just dropped a map to a diamond" is one thing, "maybe he just dropped a map to a diamond and a bunch of people randomly predicted it in an exact enough fashion to profit from it"? are we braindead?
the fact that the builds were cheesy also has nothing to do with anything, because intentionally doing weird builds is a common and obvious way to cover matchfixing as it gives you an automatic excuse for why you might have fucked up against a weaker player. it would have been planned, just like the whole thing would have been planned
i'm not a witch hunt person, but without a gambling expert coming in with an alternate take on what happened with the lines i don't see how you can think he's innocent at this point. by all means if someone has some real analysis based on real knowledge that shows the betting lines weren't anomalous, please post it
On March 13 2019 22:53 brickrd wrote: but without a gambling expert coming in with an alternate take on what happened with the lines
Without taking a side on the issue, that has already happened, as Pinnacle hasn't voided the bets when they've done so in the past when they thought it was clear.
On March 13 2019 15:54 Drake wrote: a persson with ZERO evidence blames a player for matchfixing just cause he had a good cheese or defended a good cheese ? this whole topic is a shame NOT BLAME PEOPLE WITHOUT EVIDENCE
he provided pretty strong evidence in the OP and cheese is not reason for blaming the player for matchfixing, the suspicion was there even before the game started you seem to have ZERO understanding of the topic and still you try to preach something to others WITH CAPSLOCK? really? your whole post is a shame
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
lets just assume he DID matchfix here for the sake of the argument.
why temporary? why the double standard? life has to go permanently because he had the bigger name and for macsed it would be ok to play again in a few months?
seriously, the illegal betting in esports is huge and i wouldnt even blame the players anymore at this point. wouldnt be surprised if they get forced / blackmailed into it.
Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Yes, looking at the replay is something that needs to be done but regardless of however it looks the real evidence in cases like this is the weird betting line behavior.
The OP explains it very clearly but some people in this thread don't seem to realize: 1 or more people bet thousands of dollars on a far inferior player to lose 2-1, so take 1 map, vs MacSed and MacSed alone.
And this is exactly what happened.
Should be needless to say this is VERY suspicious.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
On March 13 2019 23:27 Penev wrote: Yes, looking at the replay is something that needs to be done but regardless of however it looks the real evidence in cases like this is the weird betting line behavior.
The OP explains it very clearly but some people in this thread don't seem to realize: 1 or more people bet thousands of dollars on a far inferior player to lose 2-1, so take 1 map, vs MacSed and MacSed alone.
And this is exactly what happened.
Should be needless to say this is VERY suspicious.
It is, but it's not a prove of anything. It just shows this needs to be inspected and so far all the sides caring about this are saying it's fine. We have here a referee posting it looked normal, we have the betting side saying there's nothing. All we have is "it looks shady"...
On March 13 2019 23:17 skdsk wrote: Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Except that this is a Diamond 2 ~4000 MMR player beating a KR GM >6000MMR. Very suspicious. Nothing concrete to prove one way or the other but definitely smells fishy.
ok, two things: did anyone had a look at the first game of the series? because, if you plan to lose one map of a Bo3 intentionally against a player who is that much weaker than you that the other two wins are practically guaranteed, you should probably already try to play a bit sloppy on the first map to give the worse player a chance to already win this one without having to use absolutely obvious sloppy play. Second, just the timing of the first cannonrush probe seems to be very, doesn't it? Normally, it should arrive ahead of the forge being finished to start the pylon and build the first cannon as soon as the pylon is up. Then MacSed seems to intentionally try to show his probe to his opponent, which seems also kind of suspicious. Together with the various other "mistakes", what are the odds of losing such a game? like, 5 to 10 percent? And what are the odds that someone places bets in the way they did? Again, probably <5 percent? Which would make that matchfixing with a probablity of over 99,5 percent, assuming that the assumptions are correct. Well, I guess people have been convicted with less certainty ...
On March 13 2019 23:08 M3t4PhYzX wrote: FUCK. BETTING. SITES.
They're destroying everything.. Even e-sports..
Dont know about that, half of the professional sport leagues would flat out go bankrupt if there werent for gambling.
Most of the "casual" fans wouldnt follow games that dont feature their favorites / hometown teams. But if you re gambling, you suddenly have a vested interest in totally irrelevant games.
That is also the main reason, why betting companies and websites give incentives / force you to make bets that include multiple results, not just the one.
On March 13 2019 23:17 skdsk wrote: Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Except that this is a Diamond 2 ~4000 MMR player beating a KR GM >6000MMR. Very suspicious. Nothing concrete to prove one way or the other but definitely smells fishy.
Sure but its possible. But even though i master back in the day, i was terrible, and didnt understand anything about the game, i didnt even bother checking replays.
On March 13 2019 09:38 tcb wrote: the match casted by chinese side channal.the game was macsed played a cannon rush while seventy91 played a 4 gateway zealot rush,that was a funny game. I tend to this only a coincidence～
Could we have the replay?
On March 13 2019 09:40 Saggymidgetbooty6969 wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:34 Xain0n wrote:
On March 13 2019 09:05 Nakajin wrote: Fuck
Not gonna lie it make me a bit nervous about Drager taking a map of Dark and Elazer, is he a legit pretty good player/ are the betting lines ok?
Drager is 1400 on Aligulac, his single map against Dark was actually more likely than MeomaikA beating Maru 2-0.
didnt see Meomaika maru but i assume nydus allins were involved, its incredibly easy to lose to them and theyre also insanely easy to execute to perfection so i am not suprised maru can drop a series vs a 6k zerg if the zerg is using some new nydus meme
Don't worry no one thinks Maru is matchfixing, even Life couldn't spend all the cash he made
Yes please! Gogo! Can you also upload the first game as well? We need to see the entire series.
sorry…I don't have a experence use OBS or youtube so the video quanlity is very low
Ignoring that MacSed, scouted this coming. Ignoring that macsed went for the strangest cannon rush ever, just not making cannons when he has the money to do so and then making it where a zealot can just kill it safely. Ignoring that Macsed apparently doesn't know how to wall a ramp. Ignoring that macsed decides to fully wall his ramp with a cannon only after the zealot is on top of the ramp even though he had the money for a while. Ignoring that Macsed totally fumbled the zealot surround with the probes, alternating between the surround of the zealots for no real reason, such that attack move would had been faster at killing the 2 zealots (not that he did anyways). Ignoring that Macsed decided to remake the cannon on his ramp even though any other building would be better when a zealot is next to it.
How can anyone excuse that Macsed simply decides not to kill two surrounded Zealots on red health and runs away with the probes in circles, never taking the opportunity to kill the red health zealots even when it would be easy to do so? It was kind of an "oh shit I might actually win this game, I have to do something to make sure the other guy doesn't accidently surrender" moment.
But failing a cannon rush on the back of "silly" mistakes seems like a surefire way to intentionally lose a game to a worse player. I bet MacSed could have made it look even more credible if Seventy hadn't proxied him, he was probably confused as to how to best lose in these circumstances. Failing a cannon rush gracefully might even be the kind of thing you can practice for, and the practice is useless if you're getting cheesed yourself. There is a slew of dumb mistakes by the Protoss (losing the probes, floating minerals, not canceling cannons, not finishing off the zealots), that alone are not worth much and wouldn't raise anyone's eyebrows, but combined with the betting pattern make for a very compelling case imo.
On March 13 2019 23:17 skdsk wrote: Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Yes, what you describe sounds possible, you had a very specific build (probably more than one since you state you won the series). A unique cheese build can work if its wonky enough and you get lucky.
Is a scouted proxy gate the kind of build/situation that a GM level protoss should be totally baffled by and lack knowledge how to counter? Eh no, your example is so far away from the actual situation at hand that its not relevant.
For anyone taking pinnacles lack of voiding the bet as proof in Macseds favor, it is not.
I'm not a gamble expert but I can tell you this, sudden and weird bets can happen in gambling. A company/bettingsite like Pinnacle can't keep their credibility if they void a bet just because they lost a lot of money on it. It could be that for some strange reason, person x felt like taking a wild gamble and put a lot of money on macsed losing this one game. The line movement is not normal, it is weird and unnatural but it is probably not enough money to be worth voiding the bet for the company.
Most times when gamblers put a lot of money on big underdogs the betters lose that money, to call foul just because the betters won is not an easy decision to make as Pinnacle. The situation when betts have been voided have probably been when huge amounts of money have been involved, this is obviously a lot but probably not enough for Pinnacle to void it.
Its important to also consider that Pinnacle as a company has a lot of variables to consider when deciding if they want to void a bet, it effects their business in more ways than just not losing the money.
For the lines to move like they do and for Macsed to lose the game as he does it is not conclusive evidence but I would say that it is above 99% likelihood it was matchfixed. It is just to many super unlikely things that happened at once, thats without even looking at the actual game which makes me personally even more sure it was matchfixed.
On March 13 2019 23:17 skdsk wrote: Actually i think its possible that master player can win vs GM/Progamer in offline tourney, because i did that myself back in the day, i had very specific tvp mass banshee/helion wol timing build and managed beat progamer with it (won the series 2-1). Though i met the same progamer later in the bracket and he beat me 2-0 then (because he already knew the build, it didnt work anymore)
Yes, what you describe sounds possible, you had a very specific build (probably more than one since you state you won the series). A unique cheese build can work if its wonky enough and you get lucky.
Is a scouted proxy gate the kind of build/situation that a GM level protoss should be totally baffled by and lack knowledge how to counter? Eh no, your example is so far away from the actual situation at hand that its not relevant.
For anyone taking pinnacles lack of voiding the bet as proof in Macseds favor, it is not.
I'm not a gamble expert but I can tell you this, sudden and weird bets can happen in gambling. A company/bettingsite like Pinnacle can't keep their credibility if they void a bet just because they lost a lot of money on it. It could be that for some strange reason, person x felt like taking a wild gamble and put a lot of money on macsed losing this one game. The line movement is not normal, it is weird and unnatural but it is probably not enough money to be worth voiding the bet for the company.
Most times when gamblers put a lot of money on big underdogs the betters lose that money, to call foul just because the betters won is not an easy decision to make as Pinnacle. The situation when betts have been voided have probably been when huge amounts of money have been involved, this is obviously a lot but probably not enough for Pinnacle to void it.
Its important to also consider that Pinnacle as a company has a lot of variables to consider when deciding if they want to void a bet, it effects their business in more ways than just not losing the money.
For the lines to move like they do and for Macsed to lose the game as he does it is not conclusive evidence but I would say that it is above 99% likelihood it was matchfixed. It is just to many super unlikely things that happened at once, thats without even looking at the actual game which makes me personally even more sure it was matchfixed.
Agree with all of this. It does look super shady, but cmon dude, why are you betting on map score?
On March 13 2019 23:46 ZenithM wrote: Probably nothing to do at this point anymore.
But failing a cannon rush on the back of "silly" mistakes seems like a surefire way to intentionally lose a game to a worse player. I bet MacSed could have made it look even more credible if Seventy hadn't proxied him, he was probably confused as to how to best lose in these circumstances. Failing a cannon rush gracefully might even be the kind of thing you can practice for, and the practice is useless if you're getting cheesed yourself. There is a slew of dumb mistakes by the Protoss (losing the probes, floating minerals, not canceling cannons, not finishing off the zealots), that alone are not worth much and wouldn't raise anyone's eyebrows, but combined with the betting pattern make for a very compelling case imo.
Yep, definitely a perfect strat for faking a loss vs a worse player.
But the probes suddenly escaping instead of delivering 2 more shots and killing both those zealots was a bit too much. There is absolutely 0 reason for doing that and he was right there microing the probes so no way he can claim he was distracted at that moment.
People need to watch the video. This sounds shady in theory but the actual match was even worse.
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
lets just assume he DID matchfix here for the sake of the argument.
why temporary? why the double standard? life has to go permanently because he had the bigger name and for macsed it would be ok to play again in a few months?
seriously, the illegal betting in esports is huge and i wouldnt even blame the players anymore at this point. wouldnt be surprised if they get forced / blackmailed into it.
>> #FREELIFE <<
Do you not understand the phrase "at least temporary?"
On March 13 2019 22:48 NinjaNight wrote: If anyone still has serious doubts after posts 115 & 116 you probably won't be convinced until you have proof that's impossible to deny. Unfortunately we live in a world where such proof is very hard to come by. Or perhaps you haven't played protoss at a masters or higher level and that blinds you from seeing that a professional protoss cannot possibly play this way in a major tournament unless they want to lose.
Macsed needs to be given at least a temporary ban from starcraft for this immediately.
Yeah, let's punish a player we have no solid evidence against. Seriously?
How can you honestly believe there's no solid evidence?
Let's start with one aspect. Can you explain to me from the perspective of someone who believes he didn't matchfix why he suddenly pulled his probes off the 2 zealots they were attacking right when the zealots were about to die? I can tell you exactly why this is one piece of evidence (among many) that he was matchfixing in great detail.
EPT
