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Suspicious betting-odds changes at WESG 2018? - Page 20

Forum Index > SC2 General
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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote:
Macsed's response:

"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了"
My translation:
"The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Liquid`Snute
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Norway839 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 00:43:42
March 15 2019 00:42 GMT
#381
On March 15 2019 08:02 AusProbe wrote:
Rail didn't tell him to build the gateway in his base, that was seventy91's idea/mistake to try and trick macsed.

Source: talking to both of them over breakfast.

Also in general, the pro Protoss players who have watched the replay at the venue seem to all think it wasnt match fixing.

What are you protoss players' reasons here? There's nothing natural about the emergency response to the surprise zealot.

The clicks and action sequence in this vod is some of the ugliest stuff I've seen from a high gm/pro player, I would never imagine anyone even on their darkest and most tilted day with a fever and a hangover playing like this.

Also the whole magically blasting through game 3 like a boss as if nothing happened thing..
Team Liquid
NinjaNight
Profile Joined January 2018
428 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 01:01:17
March 15 2019 00:47 GMT
#382
On March 15 2019 09:42 Liquid`Snute wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 08:02 AusProbe wrote:
Rail didn't tell him to build the gateway in his base, that was seventy91's idea/mistake to try and trick macsed.

Source: talking to both of them over breakfast.

Also in general, the pro Protoss players who have watched the replay at the venue seem to all think it wasnt match fixing.

What are you protoss players' reasons here? There's nothing natural about the emergency response to the surprise zealot.

The clicks and action sequence in this vod is some of the ugliest stuff I've seen from a high gm/pro player, I would never imagine anyone even on their darkest and most tilted day with a fever and a hangover playing like this to then magically blast through game 3 like a boss as if nothing happened.


Thank god. Snute arrives with the great voice of reason. *bows* =P

That's exactly right. Having played protoss at a masters level for a long time I can say with 100% certainty I would never execute a cannon rush as poorly as Macsed did in this game under tournament conditions unless I was trying to lose. Not even close.

As if the "mistake" of walling with a gateway plus cannon when he could fill the gap with a gateway wasn't bad enough he then continually replaced that dead cannon with another cannon (which costs 150 like a gateway) instead of a gateway. He didn't even bother to cancel the cannons.

That alone is proof he was intentionally helping the zealots reach his mineral line over and over. And then he even surrounded the 2 zealots and let them go free at the last second when they were one more probe hit away from dying.

He purposefully made Seventy win in the only way he possibly could by using a super weak constructing cannon as part of the wall so Seventy could always get his zealots into the main base and kill his probes.

A cannon rush and early scout is the perfect build order win against proxy zealot. You simply wall your ramp with 2 pylons 1 gateway and place a cannon behind them and laugh as the opponent can't do anything. You don't use a cannon in the wall over and over unless you're begging him to come in and kill your base. You also don't suddenly build the wall super late when you scouted his lack of gasses a long time ago.

This is what the truth looks like and everyone would be very wise to listen up.
ZenithM
Profile Joined February 2011
France15952 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 01:00:48
March 15 2019 00:56 GMT
#383
It's funny to me that a lot of posters (allegedly or actually) close to the situtation, when giving a statement on this are always trying to involve some other people, as if to justify that maybe some insight escaped that MacSed would be playing like crap or jokingly. Like somehow this information was made known to a considerable amount of people (who might have placed bets, of course). Example of this is MacSed saying "Rail gave him this build, very good build that I wasn't expecting at all hurrdurr". Other example is post #230 from a new Chinese user, mentioning "MacSed's Chinese friends" pressuring him to win quickly. Another post #314 saying that Rail wasn't actually the one who came up with the build, but some other guy from a Whatsapp group of something. Finally post #365 where numerous but unnamed "pro Protoss players" at the venue thought this wasn't match fixing after viewing the replay.


There is nothing there, for sure, but that would actually be a very smart defense against match fixing allegations. Slowly but surely spreading out confusion and involving an increasing amount of random names close to the situation to make it seem like some inside information leaked in some way. This is not what's happening here of course, just thought it would be a "neat" defense. I do find very weird to involve anyone on the side of Seventy91, his build was irrelevant because the game was winnable several times over for MacSed, who cares who gave him the build... Really seems like a desperate version of my idea.
Wedge
Profile Joined March 2008
Canada580 Posts
March 15 2019 02:10 GMT
#384
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.

pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 03:03:13
March 15 2019 02:57 GMT
#385
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority? Did you watch how carefully Artosis, Incontrol, Feardragon, and Tempo treated this subject on the Pylon Show?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


I personally agree, by the way, that what we've seen so far from Macsed looks like matchfixing.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
NinjaNight
Profile Joined January 2018
428 Posts
March 15 2019 03:00 GMT
#386
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 03:10:51
March 15 2019 03:05 GMT
#387
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
NinjaNight
Profile Joined January 2018
428 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 03:22:04
March 15 2019 03:19 GMT
#388
On March 15 2019 12:05 pvsnp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.


That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.

There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.

It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 03:35:23
March 15 2019 03:28 GMT
#389
On March 15 2019 12:19 NinjaNight wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 12:05 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.


That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.

There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.

It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.


Then Macsed goes free.

And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.

Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.



"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."

- Benjamin Franklin
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
NinjaNight
Profile Joined January 2018
428 Posts
March 15 2019 03:42 GMT
#390
On March 15 2019 12:28 pvsnp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 12:19 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:05 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.


That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.

There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.

It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.


Then Macsed goes free.

And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.

Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.



"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."

- Benjamin Franklin


That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 03:48:32
March 15 2019 03:47 GMT
#391
On March 15 2019 12:42 NinjaNight wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 12:28 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:19 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:05 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.


That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.

There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.

It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.


Then Macsed goes free.

And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.

Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.



"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."

- Benjamin Franklin


That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.


It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.

And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
NinjaNight
Profile Joined January 2018
428 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 04:02:08
March 15 2019 03:58 GMT
#392
On March 15 2019 12:47 pvsnp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 12:42 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:28 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:19 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:05 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.


That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.

There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.

It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.


Then Macsed goes free.

And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.

Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.



"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."

- Benjamin Franklin


That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.


It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.

And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.


It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything or whatever stupid excuse you like.

The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 04:12:28
March 15 2019 04:09 GMT
#393
On March 15 2019 12:58 NinjaNight wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 12:47 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:42 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:28 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:19 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:05 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.


That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.

There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.

It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.


Then Macsed goes free.

And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.

Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.



"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."

- Benjamin Franklin


That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.


It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.

And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.


It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything.

The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.


Yes.

By refusing to accept the level of evidence you propose, society inevitably allows guilty people to go free. That's reality. That's the price of protecting the innocent. From the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Article 11, Section 1:

"Everyone charged with a penal offence has the right to be presumed innocent until proved guilty according to law in a public trial at which he has had all the guarantees necessary for his defence."

If you want to know why society has chosen to accept that price, I suggest you start with this short paper.

"The maxim,' innocent until proven guilty' was bom in the late thirteenth century, preserved in the universal jurisprudence of the lus commune, employed in the defense of marginalized defendants, Jews, heretics, and witches, in the early modem period, and finally deployed as a powerful argument against torture in the sixteenth, seventeenth, and eighteenth centuries."
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
NinjaNight
Profile Joined January 2018
428 Posts
March 15 2019 04:26 GMT
#394
As you admitted that can be sufficient to pass the standard of proof. So hopefully those with the power will completely understand these things or perhaps we need a new way to deal with things like this.
jy_9876543210
Profile Joined March 2016
265 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-15 05:58:24
March 15 2019 04:36 GMT
#395
My honest opinion about matchfixing and gambling, not related to the discussion here, just in general:

I don't understand why progamers accuse matchfixing but not so much on gambling.
Here's my thought:
I understand gambling on horse racing, dogfighting, cockfighting etc. People believe they have good judgement on the performance of these animals. Well, they are still managed by human beings after all but at least the animals themselves are trying their best not to get killed in the ring.
But gambling on human beings?
How do you feel when someone's cheering for you and shouting:"Beat your opponent! Knock him down! I bet 1000 dollars on you!" like you are a dog or a horse?
Well, you can ignore it like you don't understand what's happening, but someone inside the ring shows that they do have intelligence and decided to use this gambling system to make profit.
Well, that hurts the viewers, but seriously, should we expect human beings to behave like animals?
That just reminded me of a joke, or not a joke:
The horrifying thing is not AI beats human in games. It is AI loses to humans deliberately.
I know there are matchfixings in sports but I never really thought about it, I've stopped watching football/basketball/etc since I was 15 or so because it's mostly about muscles, not brains. And then I found strategy games which are more relevant to brains. Now that I think about it, I don't really blame the people in physical sports who don't mind the gambling on them - they are probably really proud of their muscle, and love to show off about it. But to someone who uses intelligence in their career - in my opinion, if they don't feel offended, they don't have dignity.
I'm not saying I encourage matchfixing, I'm just saying it's natural human behavior based on the fact that there's gambling on them. The only way to stop it is to stop gambling - well that's difficult, because human are dumb in general. But at least we can start with make gambling on human beings illegal worldwide - because in my point of view they just see the players like animals.

I never gambled before, or bought a lottery. Nowadays mathematics, statistics and probability theories on gambling is so well understood, even experts are most likely to lose everything in a casino. So those gamblers turn to the games by humans - and believe they can make profit on it. I say, you deserve to lose, you deserves to lose all your money just like gambling in a casino or on horse racing. Matchfixing or not, you deserve to lose anyways, and matchfixing happens only because of your gambling, and people who only want to enjoy the games instead of making profit from it are hurt the most.

But that's just words and opinions, deep inside people are still controlled by their animal instincts and reactions. Nothing would change in - well, within my lifespan, probably. I should just stop thinking about it and concentrate on better things that are worth the time.

I think this should be a separate thread but 1 thread on this topic is probably enough for this forum. I'll save it as a record of my thoughts and post it somewhere else in the future, maybe after I make my own blog.
Phase 1: F2    Phase 2: A   Phase 3: Profit!
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
March 15 2019 04:37 GMT
#396
On March 15 2019 13:26 NinjaNight wrote:
As you admitted that can be sufficient to pass the standard of proof. So hopefully those with the power will completely understand these things or perhaps we need a new way to deal with things like this.


I agree with you here. Thanks for keeping things civil.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
NinjaNight
Profile Joined January 2018
428 Posts
March 15 2019 04:40 GMT
#397
On March 15 2019 13:37 pvsnp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 13:26 NinjaNight wrote:
As you admitted that can be sufficient to pass the standard of proof. So hopefully those with the power will completely understand these things or perhaps we need a new way to deal with things like this.


I agree with you here. Thanks for keeping things civil.


Yea, glad we could come to a nice conclusion there.
ooCast1
Profile Joined March 2019
25 Posts
March 15 2019 05:07 GMT
#398
On March 15 2019 12:58 NinjaNight wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 12:47 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:42 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:28 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:19 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:05 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.


That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.

There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.

It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.


Then Macsed goes free.

And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.

Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.



"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."

- Benjamin Franklin


That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.


It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.

And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.


It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything or whatever stupid excuse you like.

The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.



BTW, this post just reminds me that Impact did use his drone to kill his own hatchery, back on OlimoLeague #120, in 2018.
Stream is https://www.twitch.tv/videos/256492017?filter=archives&sort=time at 2:51:07
HF lmao
NinjaNight
Profile Joined January 2018
428 Posts
March 15 2019 05:17 GMT
#399
On March 15 2019 14:07 ooCast1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 12:58 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:47 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:42 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:28 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:19 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:05 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:10 Wedge wrote:
Wow, this whole thing was a really interesting read.

Have to say that I agree with the thought that all the evidence compiled seemed too convincing, especially with the mind boggling level of mistakes that he was making in terms of not only micro, which can be tenuously argued, but just the high level decision making and counters he made were in my mind, indefensible. Its not like you just suddenly "forget" or "play bad" to that level, its unheard of.

Some posters here really showing how ignorant or naive they are in terms of wanting more evidence or proof. Especially the argument that he could have just been having a bad day or made some mistakes. Going by this logic, the only way you would be convinced he was match fixing is if you saw him attacking his own units, and even that you may give him a pass as it could have been a misclick lol.



You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.


That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.

There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.

It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.


Then Macsed goes free.

And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.

Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.



"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."

- Benjamin Franklin


That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.


It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.

And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.


It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything or whatever stupid excuse you like.

The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.



BTW, this post just reminds me that Impact did use his drone to kill his own hatchery, back on OlimoLeague #120, in 2018.
Stream is https://www.twitch.tv/videos/256492017?filter=archives&sort=time at 2:51:07
HF lmao


Hahaha... the hypothetical situation I was imagining was Macsed sending all his probes to attack his own nexus at the start of the game when nothing is happening. That situation happened because Impact misclicked 1 drone and didn't notice because he's involved in a very APM intensive macro game and that little drone blends in among all the mining drones.

That's super funny.

(I know you weren't arguing anything and were just bringing this up for fun)
ooCast1
Profile Joined March 2019
25 Posts
March 15 2019 05:38 GMT
#400
On March 15 2019 14:17 NinjaNight wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2019 14:07 ooCast1 wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:58 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:47 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:42 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:28 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:19 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:05 pvsnp wrote:
On March 15 2019 12:00 NinjaNight wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:57 pvsnp wrote:
[quote]

You do understand why laws and criminal justice systems exist right? Why convictions aren't decided by popular vote or sentences by vigilantism? Why the court of public opinion holds no legal authority?

"Ignorant" and "naive?" The irony is overwhelming.


That's why what we actually go by is the abundant evidence and the approval of the public opinion is just a little bonus.


This statement would be right if you were sitting in court as a juror for a criminal case being brought against Macsed. A juror having seen the case's evidence presented by professional investigators and argued by professional attorneys, before a duly appointed judge.

As it is, it's precisely the legal powerlessness of everyone on this forum that allows them to speculate, rant, and rage about Macsed's guilt and/or punishment to their heart's content.


That's the mindset that will get us nowhere toward solving the matchfixing problem. Do you know the reason Life was found guilty? It was only because the Korean police launched a huge investigation and eventually finally found some answers that allowed them to bust him. As I recall it took quite a while.

There will be no such thing here so I'm sure they will find nothing and proclaim his innocence despite being guilty. They don't have the power or the persistence that the Korean police possessed, what are they going to do? The matchfixers can just run free. On top of that it's a Chinese tournament so I wouldn't even trust them to be willing to claim his guilt even if they were aware of it. They aren't like the Koreans who would likely be quick to shun matchfixers.

It's time to move beyond these silly ways and go with something that is actually effective.


Then Macsed goes free.

And what's wrong with that? I assume that your kneejerk reaction is outrage that a player who seems probably guilty doesn't suffer for it. I assume you'll cry out for punishment, for retribution, for vengeance. I assume you'll call it a travesty of justice. All of that is probably justified. Macsed is probably guilty. Probably.

Sit down, take a deep breath, and think for a second about what that word means. Probably.



"It is better 100 guilty Persons should escape than that one innocent Person should suffer."

- Benjamin Franklin


That seems good unless you realize this is more than just "probably." This is "beyond any reasonable doubt," which is all that is required because complete, absolute proof is very rare and would allow almost everyone to get away with crimes.


It's not a smoking gun. It's not direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B. It's circumstantial.

And while circumstantial evidence can be and often is judged sufficient to pass the legal standard of proof, "beyond all reasonable doubt" within a court of law, I do hope that you are not so arrogant as to believe that you, a TL poster half a world away, are vested with the legal authority to deliver that judgement.


It's not quite direct and incontrovertible evidence of A therefore B, but it's about as close as you're ever going to get other than perhaps his own probes killing his nexus which I suppose you could also argue away by saying he misclicked and then had a heart attack and couldn't do anything or whatever stupid excuse you like.

The fact of the matter is we're never going to get anywhere on the issue if we refuse to accept such a high level of evidence. Our only hope then is rare situations like Life where the police launch their own huge investigation and pursue it persistantly for a long time until they uncover something.



BTW, this post just reminds me that Impact did use his drone to kill his own hatchery, back on OlimoLeague #120, in 2018.
Stream is https://www.twitch.tv/videos/256492017?filter=archives&sort=time at 2:51:07
HF lmao


Hahaha... the hypothetical situation I was imagining was Macsed sending all his probes to attack his own nexus at the start of the game when nothing is happening. That situation happened because Impact misclicked 1 drone and didn't notice because he's involved in a very APM intensive macro game and that little drone blends in among all the mining drones.

That's super funny.

(I know you weren't arguing anything and were just bringing this up for fun)



Exactly, just to add bit seasoning to the hot grill.
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