Suspicious betting-odds changes at WESG 2018? - Page 22

On March 15 2019 22:18 Boggyb wrote:
If I'm ever being tried for a crime, I want some of you guys on my jury. In the jury room, you'd say "Sure, he bought the same type of gun that was used in the murder a week before, was caught on film saying 'you better watch yourself' to the deceased, and his cell phone put him in the area when the murder happened, but that's all circumstantial, and if circumstantial evidence isn't enough to convict someone of match fixing, it isn't nearly enough for a murder trial no matter how damning that circumstantial evidence is.".

On March 15 2019 23:31 NinjaNight wrote:


Hahaha! I can't take you seriously after this.

Talk about "jumping to conclusions." I'm not racist at all. I'd be defending Macsed if I didn't feel the evidence was so overwhelmingly against him that there's little chance he didn't matchfix. On the contrary I hope the Chinese scene does well and stays honest.

On March 15 2019 23:07 Kaolla wrote:


It's also not nearly as hard as he makes it seem. I've received US dollar payments quite a few times here in China (on a Chinese bank account) and I've never had any issues with them or it has never taken me more than a few minutes to convert the foreign currency to Chinese currency. I think anyone who has actually seen the game knows this doesn't matter anyway as it's obvious the game was fixed.

On March 16 2019 00:35 deacon.frost wrote:

Most of the time if the cops don't have the murder weapon, eye witness(who can be dismantled by a good defendant because eye witnesses are very lousy evidence(not joking)) or other direct evidence, the circumstancial evidence have to be damn strong. That's how many innocents were executed in US. Later on it was found they were innocent. Read something about those cases. That's why the system should work on the premise, that it's better to leave someone dangerous free than to ruin someone who's innocent.

Even current DNA testing isn't as strong evidence as many would love to believe. There's plenty of what can go wrong during the murder investigation.

Since you're one of the lynch mobbing guys, let me ask you several questions:
1) How much money was involved in the betting?
2) How does the Pinnacle algorithm for betting weights the volatility. We have an unknown player who can have a fake account(smurf account) and is much higher in reality, we don't know. We have a game that's volatile(bo loss is still a thing) and we have a volatile format(considering map betting, you can have a lucky win, proleague showed us some games where the clear favorite lost, sure, there wasn't such high discrepancy between the MMR but still, even in BO3 the victor wouldn't have a chance)
3) What was the motive of MacSed? Why did he accepted it? If it's illegal in China you're trapping yourself with future blackmailing possibilities for what exactly?
4) Who contanted whom?
5) Can you clearly discard any other potential cases?

I can go on, but we don't know how much money was involved, who made the plan, why MacSed lost and how does the algorithm work. It may have been few hundred bucks or few thousand, we don't know.

All we know that there was some weird betting and that the game looked bad. But we, as a community, should demant thorough investigation, not a lynch.

Similarly to your example. You bought a gun - where's the gun? If you have the gun, you can easily prove your innocence. Your mobile phone said IT was there(not that you were there). Where's your mobile phone? You said you would kill him, how many people did you said that to? (it makes life easier if you threaten to everybody when in rage)

In case you will suddenly lose your gun, your phone and except this person you've never threatened to anybody else, it would look suspicious. On the other hand - leaving the crime scene without any trace of evidence is nowadays nearly impossible, for example, clothes. Did you burn them? How often were you at his home? because there's a high chance you lost something there that can be analyzed. Did you take all the shells with you? If not - did you use gloves while filling the gun/clip? Did you shoot with an overall, mask and such things on? (so you can't leave evidence)

There are ways how to kill safely, I guarantee you, but most of the time in the western countries in cases of murders - the general person will do a mistake. And it's not just this weak evidence (at least nowadays) to get you in jail.

I spend too much time with cops

On March 16 2019 00:58 Pilot912 wrote:


The Chinese government has gone through a Crypto Crack down (https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/08/23/china-continues-its-crypto-crackdown-blocks-public-access-to-offshore-exchanges/), precisely because its strong stance against "untraceable money movements". Using crypto currency in this case won't be as easy as somewhere else.

Again, back to the bank route, you can do foreign currency exchange and send money in and out of China, but I just don't see an easy way to do it without leave a trace, and this is known to most Chinese. That's why the "follow the money" suggestions works better than lynching around a VOD.

I don't think for such a small game that a lot of money would be involved, and considering all the hurdles/additional costs to do this secretly, I made the argument that it's unlikely happen.

If we are talking about a Chinese underground gamble site, then the story would sounds more reasonable. But Pinnacle is an open oversea site. Online Gambling is completely banned in China.

We do have a questionable VOD and weird betting pattern, but official investigation tracing the money should be the crucial evidence.

On March 16 2019 02:11 Kaolla wrote:


You can tell all you want about an official stance you want, but using crypto and trading in it is still pretty easy in China if you want to and despite online gambling being banned I am willing to bet no one really cares about it and no investigation would ever be launched into a single bet of a few hundred dollars and there is virtually no risk despite there being a 'trace'.

And then we're not even taken into account he was probably paid in another way and someone else put the bet up. So yea, it all sounds pretty scary, but in reality none of these are arguments have much credibility and none of them would be much of a hindrance for fixing the game.

On March 16 2019 03:05 Pilot912 wrote:


It is possible to be the case you stated, but again, it is not "pretty easy in China" in 2019. Just read some news (e.g. https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/07/09/china-crackdown-bitcoin/) and get a sense about how China's finance system these days work on the mechanism of tracking every single dollar of people's daily spending... There will be trace if match-fix is involved, and again, it is under investigation.

You make the case that "he could be paid in another way", but again, how? Now the story would be like, someone found a Chinese proxy agent, approached MacSed, had to win his trust (if someone you don't know came to you, say. "dude, want to make some quick cash?" What's your normal response?), found an untraceable way to make the payment, and then, for at most thousands of dollars?

Again, I don't believe a 32 year-old (yes, MacSed is that old) would take his daily job and career at risk for such small amount. I make the judgment from a working adult's common sense. I could be proved to be wrong. But before that, just don't be so determined that someone barely staying above MMR 6000 cannot lose to MMR4000 player in a hilarious way.

I will shut up from now on since I have made my points. The sad thing is, given how the community had responded, even official investigation result probably won't clear MacSed's name since so many people already rushed to the conclusion.

On March 16 2019 03:36 Aegwynn wrote:
This is the most fixed game i've ever seen.
I don't find what MacSed did wrong btw, cheers to him for ez money of people who are gambling on a video game.
One should have right to throw his own games, because anything you do to throw intentionally can be counted as "playing bad" or vice versa anyways. Just look how ridiculously naive these comments here about a %101 fixed game.

On March 16 2019 03:40 Xophy wrote:


Wait a second ... who ever claimed that it was a non-chinese who paid MacSed for throwing the map ... and it should easily be possible for a chinese to pay another chinese, right? So no cross-national transfer of money would be needed ... and only a few people questioned that a 6k MMR player can lose to a 4k MMR player ... However, the way MacSed lost that game is pretty indicative of intentionally throwing the map ...

On March 16 2019 03:54 Pilot912 wrote:


If it is a Chinese paid MacSed to do so, then why not gambling at a Chinese underground gambling site? Get my point? I am not rushing to any conclusion, just point out all the odd issues beyond the VOD. To go back to my original point, the story sounds more "persuasive or logic" if:

(1) not Pinnacle, but a Chinese underground gambling site showed the betting line changes, in this case, this could be a domestic affair, avoiding all the issues I raised.

(2) Someone found an established Chinese player, and another much stronger EU players, paid both to let the Chinese player to "match-fix" an unexpected win. Such situation won't trigger China's nationalistic fans' backlash.

What we have is the most unlikely situation: a semi-retired player is to match-fix knowing that such action would lead to online harassment from nationalistic fans, do it knowing the game is broadcasted, and after finished being laughed by all friends coming to the tournament.

Think about all these factors... I have to say, the money involved must be substantial, which, would leave trace. But as far as we know, such a smallish game won't attract that huge amount of money from the beginning.

On March 16 2019 03:05 Pilot912 wrote:


It is possible to be the case you stated, but again, it is not "pretty easy in China" in 2019. Just read some news (e.g. https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/07/09/china-crackdown-bitcoin/) and get a sense about how China's finance system these days work on the mechanism of tracking every single dollar of people's daily spending... There will be trace if match-fix is involved, and again, it is under investigation.

You make the case that "he could be paid in another way", but again, how? Now the story would be like, someone found a Chinese proxy agent, approached MacSed, had to win his trust (if someone you don't know came to you, say. "dude, want to make some quick cash?" What's your normal response?), found an untraceable way to make the payment, and then, for at most thousands of dollars?

Again, I don't believe a 32 year-old (yes, MacSed is that old) would take his daily job and career at risk for such small amount. I make the judgment from a working adult's common sense. I could be proved to be wrong. But before that, just don't be so determined that someone barely staying above MMR 6000 cannot lose to MMR4000 player in a hilarious way.

I will shut up from now on since I have made my points. The sad thing is, given how the community had responded, even official investigation result probably won't clear MacSed's name since so many people already rushed to the conclusion.

On March 16 2019 04:14 Kaolla wrote:


Like I said before, I live in China, I have crypto and I know it's not that hard to buy/sell crypto here if you want to and if we're not talking huge amounts. If you are from China you must know that too... Other than that it could be anyone that cooperated with him, not gonna speculate on that and I think it doesn't necessarily have to be a very well thought out plan. It seems like a simple idea, taking a loss for some cash, but as can be seen from the game itself, losing without raising any suspicion is harder than it might seem.

Anyway, to me its absolutely 100% clear he intentionally lost that game and a fix would then be most likely I guess. And no, I don't have 100% proof for that, but that theory fits the story best. I think most of the points raised against this are just not very strong (like your whole bitcoin/bank trouble, which is pretty much non-existent and I feel like you should know that if you live in China or have lived there).