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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote:
Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了"
My translation:
"The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game." |
On March 16 2019 08:14 Excalibur_Z wrote:
It's certainly true that some posters are more zealous than others with regard to convicting MacSed in the court of public opinion. What I believe you may be missing is the game in the greater context of the match. If you take Game 2 out of context, then it could be reasonably assumed that he was just messing around for the first half of the match and had mentally given up in the second half.
However, things get much more damning when we look at the skills he showed in the other two games. Even if we say that he's a rusty GM player and that 6000 MMR doesn't accurately describe his current ability, we would have a very difficult time making that argument when we are watching Game 3 which immediately followed. Game 3 looks like he's in good competitive shape, a modern contender in SC2.
There is a "mental defeat threshold" that exists in games. This is a threshold which defines a state of mind that prevents a player from rallying because of a perceived foregone conclusion. If you're playing basketball and you're 40 points down with 2 minutes remaining in the final quarter, that's statistically impossible to win. 40 points down with 5 minutes remaining? Not absolutely impossible, but so extremely unlikely that you probably crossed your mental defeat threshold. You've already written off the outcome, so you just stop trying. I think we can probably outline whether that was a factor in this game:
1. Poor pylon placement (in plain view): MacSed might be feeling confident.
2. Poor cannon placement (easily thwarted): MacSed might still be feeling confident.
3. Cannon to seal the ramp opening: ???
4. Probes fail to kill Zealots: Mentally defeated. "Even if I kill them, I can't win. GG."
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated.
I agree with the points listed here and will see if I can translate them back to the China side to get them investigated.
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On March 16 2019 08:14 Excalibur_Z wrote:
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated.
Yep, that's single handedly the best piece of in-game evidence. It would've been even easier (!) for him to simply complete the wall with a gateway and place a cannon anywhere behind it. Instead he makes an elaborate wall of gateway + cannon which is not only harder to build but also is incredibly weak and guarantees the zealots get inside his base.
Then the ultimate proof that this was not a "mistake." He always rewalls that same spot with a cannon when obviously he could still use a gateway and have a secure wall. The only reason this could ever happen is because he wants the zealots to get into his base and wants to make it look like he's trying to keep them out.
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On March 16 2019 08:22 NinjaNight wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 08:14 Excalibur_Z wrote:
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated. Yep, that's single handedly the best piece of in-game evidence. It would've been even easier (!) for him to simply complete the wall with a gateway and place a cannon anywhere behind it. Instead he makes an elaborate wall of gateway + cannon which is not only harder to build but also is incredibly weak and guarantees the zealots get inside his base. Then the ultimate proof that this was not a "mistake." He always rewalls that same spot with a cannon when obviously he could still use a gateway and have a secure wall. The only reason this could ever happen is because he wants the zealots to get into his base and wants to make it look like he's trying to keep them out.
Also the fact that:
1. He lost those 2 probes in Seventy's base to 1 Zealot (which you can kite for days)
2. He lost 1 or 2 proxy cannons without cancelling
3. Blocking his own wall with cannons twice both times no cancel.
4. Probes surround on the 2 zealots in his own mineral line attacking them both 2 red health and then decides to click on mineral patch to stack probes instead of killing the 2 zealots off??
I don't know if he's matchfixing but I know that if you showed anyone game 2 and this whole series with decent knowledge about SC2, they would find game 2 highly suspicious and when you add in the betting odds, this can only make people think there's something not right about this whole thing. It's really hard to believe that he can play that bad at that MMR level.
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If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Also, it was obvious that Macsed was not getting out of his group, so he would win $0 for playing. If someone offered him cash to throw game 2, against an opponent so weak he knew 100% he could win 2-1 after throwing a map, this was the most ripe opportunity for this match fixing to happen.
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TLADT24920 Posts
On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote:
If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus?
Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
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On March 16 2019 10:36 BigFan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote:
If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus? Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
No it is not viable at all, which is why it’s not believable that Macsed thought that was happening instead of proxy gateways. When you scout what Macsed saw, 99% of the time it is proxy gateway zealot, yet Macsed does not fully wall off with a cannon behind it despite ample opportunity.
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lol i know its subtle but i still think building the pylon when he already had like 20 free supply was the most telling.
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On March 16 2019 10:47 SolaR- wrote:
lol i know its subtle but i still think building the pylon when he already had like 20 free supply was the most telling.
Or noticing that the Protoss you are cannon rushing has almost nothing in his main, no gas, and not responding by fully walling off at home with 1 gateway and 1 cannon behind it. You don’t even have to see the zealot to know what is happening.
Even though this game throwing didn’t change the outcome of this group, it’s still so egregious that if it goes unpunished, it only invites more game throwing, whatever the reason it was that he wanted to lose that game so badly.
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On March 16 2019 08:03 Pilot912 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 07:53 NinjaNight wrote:On March 16 2019 07:45 Pilot912 wrote:On March 16 2019 07:09 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 16 2019 05:25 Pilot912 wrote:On March 16 2019 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Pilot912, do you think that macsed did or did not deliberately lose the game?
Whether he was persuaded by a substantial amount of money or not does not matter.
I feel that he did not deliberately lose the game. Then you cannot see the obvious. Everything you have written, which may be true, is irrelevant to that he has deliberately chosen to lose. Macsed could had just as easily been blackmailed, or the betting ratio changing was just a coincidence, and so macsed gets no money, and has to endure "losing face", but that game can only be a game where Macsed chose to lose. For me, all the conversations here are a classic example of confirmation bias. Once the consensus was built among several posters, then they stop listening to the other side of story, and take people's input as offence. Nope. For me at least what anyone else argues about this doesn't have any effect on my belief that the evidence is very strong against him. And I'm all for investigating this more deeply before coming to a conclusion... However, I don't know how they could attain your decisive evidence of money movement. The only reason they were able to do that in Life's case was because the Korean police launched a huge investigation. Are the investigators here really going to have the power to uncover that kind of thing? OK, I get both you and Dangermousecatdog's perspectives and let's disagree with respect. As far as I know from online conversations in Chinese forums, there are internal forces pushing within China's SC2 online community to get things clear out, and WESG organizer now feels a little humiliated by the noise we created here at TL. MacSed himself probably wants to get his name cleared too if he's truly innocent. We will see some official result soon, and which should show more inside evidence (e.g. Rail's comment about providing Seventy91 the strategy, etc.). Keep an eye on the updates.
The Rail thing is nothing but a smokescreen imo. Everybody close to the situation has said something about this Rail guy like they're trying to involve a third party in this mess. Seventy91's build was almost completely irrelevant, MacSed had countless opportunities to get some sort of advantage and ignored them each time or straight up dug himself further in shit. This build is not fucking sorcery, it's a bad proxy gate build... The only thing it did was making very hard for MacSed to conceal his intention to lose the set.
Pretending like a competitive player gave a diamond player some kind of secret build was a nice try, but it doesn't come even remotely close to healing the mistrust users here have built when presented with all the facts.
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United Kingdom20321 Posts
On March 16 2019 10:36 BigFan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote:
If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus? Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
Since LOTV somewhat viable but not common; may not be strictly safe in very high level PvP. It works at high master although with a second gate following the cyber core after your nexus is down and i've played many games out from that opening, even against people who knew that it was coming out.
Your units come a bit later but defenders advantage generally makes up for it and it can hold 2gate pressures, proxy stargate/robo etc. The second chrono from the earlier nexus helps, as do defensive shield batteries in some situations.
If you're doing that kind of nexus before second gate build you're putting the nexus down long before you can have any ranged unit out - sometimes before you even start the cyber core - so it's obvious to any probe scout what's going on.
Overall i'd say that people are way too quick to dismiss openings like that as implausible as a whole (as if nobody would ever use them and they're a nonfactor in sc2) because such a nexus-after-1-gate opening can be pulled off well over 1000 MMR higher than the weaker player in question, probably 1500+ MMR which is a completely different level of play.
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Looking at that game in particular: It's so explicit that this kind of opening is not happening that it's completely implausible that macsed would read it as such and misplay in the ways that he did. There's no gas and no nexus, the gateway timing is way off. Probe count is too low. A bit later there is no second pylon and no cyber core. The question is not if there's a proxy or not, it's what and where the proxy is.
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On March 16 2019 10:36 BigFan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote:
If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus? Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol.
Absolutely not with a late gateway like that. You'd die every time to a competent protoss. What he scouted means proxy zealot nearly every time. It's impossible that he was legitimately fooled and thought his opponent was going for an expansion without even considering the possibility of proxy zealots. No way. So even his statement heavily points to his guilt.
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On March 16 2019 12:10 Cyro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 10:36 BigFan wrote:On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote:
If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus? Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol. Since LOTV somewhat viable but not common; may not be strictly safe. It works at high master although with a second gate following the cyber core after your nexus is down and i've played many games out from that opening, even against people who knew that it was coming out. Your units come a bit later but defenders advantage generally makes up for it and it can hold 2gate pressures, proxy stargate/robo etc. The second chrono from the earlier nexus helps, as do defensive shield batteries in some situations. It's probably not as all-around good as other builds and i can't even name any specific high level pro games that have used it recently. The 2gate+core before nexus sentry-stalker opening gets you a lot more safe scouting info (very fast halluc) and doesn't delay cyber core production from either gateway so your less vulnerable to early game fuckery with it. If you're doing that kind of nexus before second gate build you're putting the nexus down long before you can have any ranged unit out - sometimes before you even start the cyber core - so it's obvious to any probe scout what's going on.
Nope nope nope... You're going to confuse people who don't know better. I've played Protoss nonstop since 2011 and have reached a low/mid GM level. Also seen a ton of professional level play in the same time period.
His gateway in his main was late because he proxied a pylon out on the map. It's very easy to see that it's late. A 1 gate expand with a late gateway is certainly not viable at all and even if it was he has nothing to worry about since cannon rush would be a hard counter to that.
What he scouted (no gasses, late gateway) in the main immediately tells him there's gateways (maybe a forge with some very wonky cheeses) proxied somewhere out on the map. He knows at that moment this is almost always going to be a proxy zealot rush. He proceeds to play dumb.
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United Kingdom20321 Posts
On March 16 2019 12:34 NinjaNight wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 12:10 Cyro wrote:On March 16 2019 10:36 BigFan wrote:On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote:
If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus? Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol. Since LOTV somewhat viable but not common; may not be strictly safe. It works at high master although with a second gate following the cyber core after your nexus is down and i've played many games out from that opening, even against people who knew that it was coming out. Your units come a bit later but defenders advantage generally makes up for it and it can hold 2gate pressures, proxy stargate/robo etc. The second chrono from the earlier nexus helps, as do defensive shield batteries in some situations. It's probably not as all-around good as other builds and i can't even name any specific high level pro games that have used it recently. The 2gate+core before nexus sentry-stalker opening gets you a lot more safe scouting info (very fast halluc) and doesn't delay cyber core production from either gateway so your less vulnerable to early game fuckery with it. If you're doing that kind of nexus before second gate build you're putting the nexus down long before you can have any ranged unit out - sometimes before you even start the cyber core - so it's obvious to any probe scout what's going on. Nope nope nope... You're going to confuse people who don't know better. I've played Protoss nonstop since 2011 and have reached a low/mid GM level. Also seen a ton of professional level play in the same time period. His gateway in his main was late because he proxied a pylon out on the map. It's very easy to see that it's late. A 1 gate expand with a late gateway is certainly not viable at all and even if it was he has nothing to worry about since cannon rush would be a hard counter to that. What he scouted (no gasses, late gateway) in the main immediately tells him there's gateways (maybe a forge with some very wonky cheeses) proxied somewhere out on the map. He knows at that moment this is almost always going to be a proxy zealot rush. He proceeds to play dumb.
Read the rest of my post. I maintain that you can play nexus before second gate openings very successfully and in much higher level pvp than 4k MMR - i've played dozens myself in the 5k's on the current patch.
Those builds, while somewhat effective, are hardly relevant to this game because it's not happening and it's completely implausible that Macsed would think that it was. The building timings (and lack of them) give it away 100% that it's an early proxy rather than a greedy expand and that's only a fraction of the info that was available.
You're going to confuse people who don't know better.
I don't think so! It's a truthful answer to a subject that i have far more experience with than the average TL poster and it avoids some of the recent hyperbole. It doesn't affect my opinions on the game and they're also clearly explained.
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On March 16 2019 12:35 Cyro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 12:34 NinjaNight wrote:On March 16 2019 12:10 Cyro wrote:On March 16 2019 10:36 BigFan wrote:On March 16 2019 10:33 Zzoram wrote:
If Winter was casting this as Bronze League Heroes, it wouldn’t be out of the normal.
I haven’t seen a cannon rush and follow up this bad even in platinum league. What Protoss vs Protoss player in his right mind sees 1 pylon 1 gateway no gas no wall when scouting and thinks the other Protoss is planning to take a nexus? Is 1 gate expand common or even viable at all in SCII PvP? In BW, it's not the most viable since someone can just make several gates and kill you lol. Since LOTV somewhat viable but not common; may not be strictly safe. It works at high master although with a second gate following the cyber core after your nexus is down and i've played many games out from that opening, even against people who knew that it was coming out. Your units come a bit later but defenders advantage generally makes up for it and it can hold 2gate pressures, proxy stargate/robo etc. The second chrono from the earlier nexus helps, as do defensive shield batteries in some situations. It's probably not as all-around good as other builds and i can't even name any specific high level pro games that have used it recently. The 2gate+core before nexus sentry-stalker opening gets you a lot more safe scouting info (very fast halluc) and doesn't delay cyber core production from either gateway so your less vulnerable to early game fuckery with it. If you're doing that kind of nexus before second gate build you're putting the nexus down long before you can have any ranged unit out - sometimes before you even start the cyber core - so it's obvious to any probe scout what's going on. Nope nope nope... You're going to confuse people who don't know better. I've played Protoss nonstop since 2011 and have reached a low/mid GM level. Also seen a ton of professional level play in the same time period. His gateway in his main was late because he proxied a pylon out on the map. It's very easy to see that it's late. A 1 gate expand with a late gateway is certainly not viable at all and even if it was he has nothing to worry about since cannon rush would be a hard counter to that. What he scouted (no gasses, late gateway) in the main immediately tells him there's gateways (maybe a forge with some very wonky cheeses) proxied somewhere out on the map. He knows at that moment this is almost always going to be a proxy zealot rush. He proceeds to play dumb. Read the rest of my post. I maintain that you can play nexus before second gate openings very successfully and in much higher level pvp than 4k MMR (i've played dozens myself above 5k) although that's hardly relevant to this game because it's not happening and both players know it 1000%.
Maybe so, but I'm sure your build doesn't involve the gateway being late due to a proxied pylon  . Also I still doubt it would be viable against a player like Macsed. And again even if it was he has the perfect counter to it, a cannon rush. The only thing he needed to worry about was proxy zealots and he knew it.
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United Kingdom20321 Posts
IDD It does not, i've clearly said as much
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I didn't even consider blackmail. China can be a relatively oppressive country (no offense intended, all countries and political systems have shortcomings) but it certainly is within the realm of possibility that Macsed really had no say in the matter. He was told by people 'higher up' to throw the game and he did what he was told.
Scary thought... if this gets thrown under the rug then that would be my guess.
And yes, I know this is seriously tangential - but still an interesting postulation, which may ultimately be relavent. Time will tell. Pun intended? Maybe, consider it a GEM of a joke. Or a Jim of a joke?
Ok I'll leave.
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On March 16 2019 10:47 SolaR- wrote:
lol i know its subtle but i still think building the pylon when he already had like 20 free supply was the most telling.
Where he built the pylon also made it so he couldn't get a full surround on the first zealot when it walked in, making his probes take more damage
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On March 16 2019 08:14 Excalibur_Z wrote:
It's certainly true that some posters are more zealous than others with regard to convicting MacSed in the court of public opinion. What I believe you may be missing is the game in the greater context of the match. If you take Game 2 out of context, then it could be reasonably assumed that he was just messing around for the first half of the match and had mentally given up in the second half.
However, things get much more damning when we look at the skills he showed in the other two games. Even if we say that he's a rusty GM player and that 6000 MMR doesn't accurately describe his current ability, we would have a very difficult time making that argument when we are watching Game 3 which immediately followed. Game 3 looks like he's in good competitive shape, a modern contender in SC2.
There is a "mental defeat threshold" that exists in games. This is a threshold which defines a state of mind that prevents a player from rallying because of a perceived foregone conclusion. If you're playing basketball and you're 40 points down with 2 minutes remaining in the final quarter, that's statistically impossible to win. 40 points down with 5 minutes remaining? Not absolutely impossible, but so extremely unlikely that you probably crossed your mental defeat threshold. You've already written off the outcome, so you just stop trying. I think we can probably outline whether that was a factor in this game:
1. Poor pylon placement (in plain view): MacSed might be feeling confident.
2. Poor cannon placement (easily thwarted): MacSed might still be feeling confident.
3. Cannon to seal the ramp opening: ???
4. Probes fail to kill Zealots: Mentally defeated. "Even if I kill them, I can't win. GG."
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt in #4, but #3 is where I can't in good faith reasonably say that MacSed was in an unwinnable position. That was salvageable by even average players, let alone 4000-MMR players, not to mention 6000-MMR players. If you seal that wall with a Gateway, you'll fully recover, stabilize, and potentially win. Nobody would make a decision to seal that choke with a Cannon.
Lots of players in tournaments do risky or wacky builds when they're ahead in a series. However, the riskier the build, the faster they concede when it fails because whatever happens, the result occurs quickly. But they still try to win those high-risk games. If someone cannon rushes and it completely fails, they GG and go to the next game. If it does moderate damage, they transition into the mid-game and things eventually start to play out more normally. That transition was possible for MacSed, but he didn't even make an effort. The outcome of the game was already determined not by the actions of his opponent, but by his own decisions. And then when you factor in the suspicious bet lines, it becomes very difficult to argue that this was anything but orchestrated.
What a perfectly based argues (not)
Why you, not beeing a player, and it seems like you certainly under 5k MMR , trying to analyze MacSed's actions?
You pointed 4 silly moves and thinking thats all we need to think about here?
Only player can understand other player, not a random user without game experience.
There is already vod's up from pro players like BeastyQT or Marsman explanation of all the dumb mistakes in text form.
And this is much more than your's poor 4 "mistakes" , around 15 maybe ? And they all heavy and stupid.
For example : you write "probes fail to kill zealots , GG ",- but i still stay in a game for another 20 seconds. What gg are you talking about ? He would gg-out already, when he saw 2 zealots in mineral line.
Players do risky and wacky builds only when opponent even deserves it, all the low-tier players 100% dying to any 3-min timing - like 2 gate stalker pressure, proxy sg oracles with adepts runby etc. Cannons take same time for win, but they are 1000x time less skill based and easier to defend. You will never see Showtime cannon rushing diamon player in go4sc2.
There is basically no explanation of MacSed walling-off 3 times with cannons instead of pylon (which is cheaper and gaining more hp and gives you ability to survive) or cybercore. That only factor leaded to obvious matchfix and lose.
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On March 16 2019 07:27 Uberfather wrote:If a player simply does a worker rush then loses can we conclude he lost on purpose? maybe if he completely miss microes his workers in a way they arent atacking? what if the player, as was already mentioned here,before mining any minerals just kills his own nexus? Then of course right? So at some point we can conclude by in game evidence that the player lost on purpose. That byun vs mkp game that had lot of people were dead sure i still had imo reasonable doubt, this one though... so many blatant plays he had to make, one after the other, to make sure he coudnt win by mistake against a player so much worse than him. Of course in the early part, if I were watching live, to give him the benefit of the doubt i could possibly consider that the first mistakes was him playing with his food, (like letting his opponent know he was canon rushing) making the game harder or something, since he would be still be confident he would win. Even failing the canon rush or letting one zealot in. But then repeatedly letting the zealots in and eventualy losing the game? i mean is there anyone that doubts that he knows that a cannon woudnt close the ramp??? 99.5% he lost on purpose. Why is the matter for an investigation. Hope it doesn't find anything. Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 13:14 hiro protagonist wrote:
I would love to know if we can find out if anyone bet for a 2-1 outcome on any other of seventy91’s series. I would also like to know if more than one bet was made or it was just one bet that changed the line so much. Like, giving his MMR disparity from everyone else in his group, you could have picked anyone he played against as it was a long shot he would win regardless.
Knowing this info would make things a lot clearer imo. Nice name. When will they make the series or movie? edit: damnit byul not byun
I am just not completely sure if I actually want to see that universe 
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On March 16 2019 08:03 Pilot912 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 07:53 NinjaNight wrote:On March 16 2019 07:45 Pilot912 wrote:On March 16 2019 07:09 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On March 16 2019 05:25 Pilot912 wrote:On March 16 2019 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Pilot912, do you think that macsed did or did not deliberately lose the game?
Whether he was persuaded by a substantial amount of money or not does not matter.
I feel that he did not deliberately lose the game. Then you cannot see the obvious. Everything you have written, which may be true, is irrelevant to that he has deliberately chosen to lose. Macsed could had just as easily been blackmailed, or the betting ratio changing was just a coincidence, and so macsed gets no money, and has to endure "losing face", but that game can only be a game where Macsed chose to lose. For me, all the conversations here are a classic example of confirmation bias. Once the consensus was built among several posters, then they stop listening to the other side of story, and take people's input as offence. Nope. For me at least what anyone else argues about this doesn't have any effect on my belief that the evidence is very strong against him. And I'm all for investigating this more deeply before coming to a conclusion... However, I don't know how they could attain your decisive evidence of money movement. The only reason they were able to do that in Life's case was because the Korean police launched a huge investigation. Are the investigators here really going to have the power to uncover that kind of thing? OK, I get both you and Dangermousecatdog's perspectives and let's disagree with respect. As far as I know from online conversations in Chinese forums, there are internal forces pushing within China's SC2 online community to get things clear out, and WESG organizer now feels a little humiliated by the noise we created here at TL. MacSed himself probably wants to get his name cleared too if he's truly innocent. We will see some official result soon, and which should show more inside evidence (e.g. Rail's comment about providing Seventy91 the strategy, etc.). Keep an eye on the updates.
Well, then the discussion here had at least one positive effect.
Regarding if Rail gave Seventy91 the strategy or whatever, that has basically nothing at all to do with MacSed (possibly) trying to throw the game (apart from making it harder and thus more obvious to throw).
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EPT
