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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote:
Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了"
My translation:
"The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game." |
On March 16 2019 19:23 Pangpootata wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:20 opisska wrote:On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money. Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive. It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets.
Exactly. Not voiding the bet is not great evidence.
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On March 16 2019 19:25 Pangpootata wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:23 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity? Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money. This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious. They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them. This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion. Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions.
This is all I’m trying to say, that it’s sad to see peoples opinions and not proof be so tainting for a guys career. There is no solid evidence on either side, yet people are posting with conspiracy theories that MacSed is making TL accounts to create support posts :’)
Through all of this I just wish people were more open minded rather than be so happy to say ‘he is 100% match fixing its not even funny’ etc. Its a bad attitude
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On March 16 2019 19:26 NinjaNight wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:23 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 19:20 opisska wrote:On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money. Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive. It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets. Exactly. Not voiding the bet is not great evidence.
Neither is all of the speculation being thrown around
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On March 16 2019 19:23 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity? Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money. This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
Pinnacle never loses money on such lines, which are moving around 1.5-2.5 . Instead, when chinese fixer did stop to bet on seventy91 winning a map, normal people gave pinnacle incredible money with buying MacSed's -1.5 (2-0 win) bet , cause in the end 2-0 of MacSed was 1.4~ . So in the end Pinnacle made a huge profit from it.
Only case Pinnacle would lose money is : when stacks for single bet are big enough (500$+) , matchfixer start to bet on huge underdog with high odds 3+ , and there is no response on favorite (who is fixing ) before match starts, So in the end pinnacle loses huge money there, without counter-money from normal people
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On March 16 2019 19:20 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:13 romson87 wrote:On March 16 2019 18:57 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:45 Powerfoe wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am: Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet. Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one. You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take. Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches. You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case. The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof. Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past. The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad. Just out of curiosity - what is the evidence and official investigators you're talking about saying about the whole thing?? The evidence is the lack of any action being taken. The betting site which has apparently lost thousands of dollars has not voided the bets which means they dont feel like it was suspicious & WESG had MacSed casting the chinese stream today which suggests they believe he is innocent. Also MacSeds statement bringing some more information than Seventy91 was given the build by Rail etc
Lack of any action being taken can be considered many things but I don't personally view it as an evidence of innocence, especially since there's no official information from the investigators. Also, do we even know how much money the betting site lost? MacSed's statement as many others pointed out in this thread can be interpreted both ways.
Having sad that, I don't disagree with you and I'm not 100% convinced MacSed did matchfix but the objective evidence that can be examined and evaluated is working against him. I suppose that's why it's hard to convince most ppl otherwise and it's perfectly understandable.
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On March 16 2019 19:29 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:25 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 19:23 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity? Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money. This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious. They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them. This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion. Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions. This is all I’m trying to say, that it’s sad to see peoples opinions and not proof be so tainting for a guys career. There is no solid evidence on either side, yet people are posting with conspiracy theories that MacSed is making TL accounts to create support posts :’) Through all of this I just wish people were more open minded rather than be so happy to say ‘he is 100% match fixing its not even funny’ etc. Its a bad attitude
Yeah you're right, nobody can say for sure whether it's 100% matchfixing or 0% matchfixing on circumstantial evidence.
But I think it is reasonable for people to debate the following issues:
1) What is the percentage certainty (in the poster's opinion) that Macsed is matchfixing
2) What is the threshold of certainty to be considered guilty beyond reasonable doubt (90%?, 99%?)
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On March 16 2019 19:20 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:13 romson87 wrote:On March 16 2019 18:57 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:45 Powerfoe wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am: Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet. Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one. You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take. Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches. You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case. The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof. Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past. The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad. Just out of curiosity - what is the evidence and official investigators you're talking about saying about the whole thing?? The evidence is the lack of any action being taken. The betting site which has apparently lost thousands of dollars has not voided the bets which means they dont feel like it was suspicious & WESG had MacSed casting the chinese stream today which suggests they believe he is innocent. Also MacSeds statement bringing some more information than Seventy91 was given the build by Rail etc
1) Not voiding the bet is not great evidence. It's a huge assumption that everyone would automatically void the bet if there was matchfixing
2) Of course they do, I have been saying they will almost certainly claim his innocence since the beginning. I can't see it going any other way guilty or not.
3) Macsed's statement seems contradictory as he said Rail gave him the build but there are conflicting things saying Seventy came up with the build or accidentally built that gateway in his main. This needs clarification. Besides that you really think it takes a high GM to give you a proxy zealot build? Seriously? It seems he's being mentioned purely to confuse about the matchfixing allegations
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On March 16 2019 19:23 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity? Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money. This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious.
Appreciate you weighing in on the issue Wardi, but I don't agree with you. You make some bold statements about how betting works and how the betting sites operates without (from what I know) no actual knowledge of it. We have had people here that knows the betting scene better than you or I that has added their knowledge. See this quote for example:
On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote:
If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
If this is a matchfix chances are the majority of the bets/all the bets were actually put in underground sites. That "some" of it spilled over on pinnacle signales like several people knowledgeable of the gambling scene has said that the information leaked outside of the inner circuit.
Others have also contributed with more information about roughly how pinnacles system works for figuring out betting lines to void or not and there are a lot of factors. For example if a lot of common bettors (that also usually lose a lot of money) makes a betting line skewed it is less likely to get flagged as suspicious. If information leaked outside of the circle and people that usually bet got this information and gambled? That explains perfectly how pinnacle hasn't void it.
Its important we do not spread misinformation but talk about what we actually know.
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"A couple hours after placing my bet, I noticed that the line for MacSed - 1.5 had moved tremendously, from 1.34 to 2.06. This type of line movement is almost unheard of in SC2."
I bet on Starcraft 2 over the space of six months (checking betting lines multiple times a day) before realising I was too emotional and prone to making degenerate bets when I lost, but I've seen line movements like that, and bigger than that before. There is a lot of dramatization in the OP. And phrases like 'huge money' are completely dependant upon how much money was already laid down on either side when you made your bet. It is rare. But 'completely unheard of' is hyperbole.
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On March 16 2019 19:29 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:25 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 19:23 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity? Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money. This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious. They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them. This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion. Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions. This is all I’m trying to say, that it’s sad to see peoples opinions and not proof be so tainting for a guys career. There is no solid evidence on either side, yet people are posting with conspiracy theories that MacSed is making TL accounts to create support posts :’) Through all of this I just wish people were more open minded rather than be so happy to say ‘he is 100% match fixing its not even funny’ etc. Its a bad attitude
The irony here is I'm very open minded, but being forced to argue powerfully against him makes it look like I'm not.
Before watching the game I expected to actually find that he's innocent and I thought I'd have to defend him on TL. After watching the game and looking at the betting line movement I came to the conclusion that there can't be any reasonable doubt he matchfixed. His statement was also poor.
I'm completely in favor of taking the investigation further and making sure we aren't missing something here. However I don't have the confidence that it will be a strong investigation. They will automatically find him innocent in my opinion.
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On March 16 2019 18:57 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 17:45 Powerfoe wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am: Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet. Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one. You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take. Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches. You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case. The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof. Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past. The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad.
It's not "just" about a big betting line movement. The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that. Yay! Unfortunately he did so in exactly the match with the strange line movement. The only one with strange line movement.
And then people started analyzing this specific match and confirmation bias aside, it does look extremely off, even more so compared to the other 2 maps played.
The people posting in this thread aren't burdened with any power to ban or convict anyone but they can and should be allowed to ventilate their opinions on this, in my view, pretty clear cut case. Expressing a view based on the data we have isn't necessarily to be called witch hunting, even though it is damning for someone.
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On March 16 2019 18:38 sertas wrote:
Ive checked this thread a few time and i keep seeing people with 0-10 posts coming here giving super stupid reasons to defend macsed. I wonder how many of these accounts are macsed himself, just saying. Should be looked into who this guy thats making 10+ accounts to come here and write stuff is.
well, no macsed here, and your speculation is kind of vicious.
actually these days he spends his time, as I know, playing Autochess, CS:GO with friends on stream, and company with his wife, his family. he looks really happy and focused on his life and work, he seems like never worried about this stuff.
and today works for WESG, well prepared, and good job.
that's kind of wierd, right? we are talking about such a serious thing which will impact his whole career and life. he just say some spiritless words about the game, and that's all...... he never try his best to prove(or pretend) his innocent about this accusation...
then, you can have your explaination, maybe he's so bold and unscrupulous.
but maybe, there is another possibility that he's not the witch, he is enjoying his life because he is innocent. so he is indifferent.
we can wait and see.
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On March 16 2019 19:40 Penev wrote:
It's not "just" about a big betting line movement. The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that. Yay! Unfortunately he did so in exactly the match with the strange line movement. The only one with strange line movement.
And then people started analyzing this specific match and confirmation bias aside, it does look extremely off, even more so compared to the other 2 maps played.
The people posting in this thread aren't burdened with any power to ban or convict anyone but they can and should be allowed to ventilate their opinions on this, in my view, pretty clear cut case. Expressing a view based on the data we have isn't necessarily to be called witch hunting, even though it is damning for someone.
"The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that." -- What were the implied odds of Drager taking a match off Elazer and Dark?
"The only one with strange line movement." -- How do you know that? How do we know that? The only reason we know about the line movements in this case (fluctuations that I've seen before in my experience of Starcraft 2 betting (albeit for much more competitive match ups)) is because the OP was personally invested in the outcome.
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On March 16 2019 19:45 JasonOfAeson wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:40 Penev wrote:
It's not "just" about a big betting line movement. The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that. Yay! Unfortunately he did so in exactly the match with the strange line movement. The only one with strange line movement.
And then people started analyzing this specific match and confirmation bias aside, it does look extremely off, even more so compared to the other 2 maps played.
The people posting in this thread aren't burdened with any power to ban or convict anyone but they can and should be allowed to ventilate their opinions on this, in my view, pretty clear cut case. Expressing a view based on the data we have isn't necessarily to be called witch hunting, even though it is damning for someone.
"The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that." -- What were the implied odds of Drager taking a match off Elazer and Dark? "The only one with strange line movement." -- How do you know that? How do we know that? The only reason we know about the line movements in this case (fluctuations that I've seen before in my experience of Starcraft 2 betting (albeit for much more competitive match ups)) is because the OP was personally invested in the outcome.
The only one with strange line movement in the 5 games Seventy91 played. Who is a player that is going to have a hard time winning a game vs some posters in this very thread and I don't mean Snute. You cannot compare a player like Drager to someone of this level.
The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
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On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote:
The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
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On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:45 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 16 2019 19:40 Penev wrote:
It's not "just" about a big betting line movement. The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that. Yay! Unfortunately he did so in exactly the match with the strange line movement. The only one with strange line movement.
And then people started analyzing this specific match and confirmation bias aside, it does look extremely off, even more so compared to the other 2 maps played.
The people posting in this thread aren't burdened with any power to ban or convict anyone but they can and should be allowed to ventilate their opinions on this, in my view, pretty clear cut case. Expressing a view based on the data we have isn't necessarily to be called witch hunting, even though it is damning for someone.
"The extra suspicious thing is a player who was very unlikely to win 1 map vs any of his 5 opponents in his group actually manages to do just that." -- What were the implied odds of Drager taking a match off Elazer and Dark? "The only one with strange line movement." -- How do you know that? How do we know that? The only reason we know about the line movements in this case (fluctuations that I've seen before in my experience of Starcraft 2 betting (albeit for much more competitive match ups)) is because the OP was personally invested in the outcome. The only one with strange line movement in the 5 games Seventy91 played. Who is a player that is going to have a hard time winning a game vs some posters in this very thread and I don't mean Snute. You cannot compare a player like Drager to someone of this level. The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
I agree with this, the likelihood of this being chance is very very small.
We have the following proof in my opinion.
- The betting line showed unusual movement towards almost all the bets favoring Seventy taking a map off of Macsed even though that would be a huge incredible upset. Biggest of the tournament without a doubt (and yes I know of Marus 0-2). This only happened for that one game versus Macsed were the outcome mirrored the bet.
- In the actual game Macsed loses on purpose, there is no way to argue for anything else unless he was having a seizure or similar. The judge says Macsed played as normal and Macsed himself never claims he was having a heartattack or similar.
- Macsed himself in his statements denies that he lost on purpose and doesn't even try to explain any of the XX amount of mistakes he made that not even a gold leaguer would do.
We can discuss if he is guilty of matchfixing, we can discuss if we should consider him innocent unless proven guilty but most of us can agree. During a game where the betting line moved unnaturally and showed mind baffling odds for Seventy taking that map (it was the second map) Macsed lost on purpose and later on denies it.
I cannot see any other option then that he matchfixed, for whatever other reason would he lose on purpose and then lie about it?
Edit: Don't forget he played like a champ in game 3.
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On March 16 2019 20:06 JasonOfAeson wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote:
The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents.
Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is.
"So you say there's a chance?"
Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
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On March 16 2019 20:19 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 20:06 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote:
The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents. Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is. "So you say there's a chance?" Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
The majority of this guy's 20 posts have been in this thread alone. That alone should tell you something.
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On March 16 2019 22:31 mierin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 20:19 Penev wrote:On March 16 2019 20:06 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote:
The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents. Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is. "So you say there's a chance?" Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation? The majority of this guy's 20 posts have been in this thread alone. That alone should tell you something.
It does but there's still value in giving a clear response. It's a public thread.
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I will be not surprised , if Wardi was the one , who did matchfix with MacSed's map against Seventy91, and then he promised MacSed those money in real cash , no bank transfers required.
Wardi seems to be pretty known with pinnacle
He defends that miserable chinese fixer with no reason, game was thrown 1000% , Wardi with all his 5k MMR experience won't ever find an excuse for MacSed to wall-off three times in a row with a photon cannon.
Im also super well known with Pinnacle's system and i can guarantee ,
Pinnacle will find suspicious activity and void your bet only if tens thousands of dollars were lost by Pinnacle there. Only if they are negative balanced.
And as i written above that match was positive in cash for Pinnacle, as more people did bet on MacSed's 2-0 win, than on Seventy91's map.
User was warned for this post
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EPT
