EPTI think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything.
Suspicious betting-odds changes at WESG 2018? - Page 25
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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response: "说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game." | ||
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HolydaKing
21254 Posts
I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. | ||
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Wardi
England897 Posts
On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote: MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai | ||
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phodacbiet
United States1740 Posts
On March 16 2019 15:39 PaulB1337 wrote: What a perfectly based argues (not) Why you, not beeing a player, and it seems like you certainly under 5k MMR , trying to analyze MacSed's actions? You pointed 4 silly moves and thinking thats all we need to think about here? Only player can understand other player, not a random user without game experience. There is already vod's up from pro players like BeastyQT or Marsman explanation of all the dumb mistakes in text form. And this is much more than your's poor 4 "mistakes" , around 15 maybe ? And they all heavy and stupid. For example : you write "probes fail to kill zealots , GG ",- but i still stay in a game for another 20 seconds. What gg are you talking about ? He would gg-out already, when he saw 2 zealots in mineral line. Players do risky and wacky builds only when opponent even deserves it, all the low-tier players 100% dying to any 3-min timing - like 2 gate stalker pressure, proxy sg oracles with adepts runby etc. Cannons take same time for win, but they are 1000x time less skill based and easier to defend. You will never see Showtime cannon rushing diamon player in go4sc2. There is basically no explanation of MacSed walling-off 3 times with cannons instead of pylon (which is cheaper and gaining more hp and gives you ability to survive) or cybercore. That only factor leaded to obvious matchfix and lose. You do realize he's arguing that Macsed matchfixed right? | ||
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Powerfoe
Canada167 Posts
On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote: I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am: Pinnacle is the most trusted and reputable sportsbook in the world. That reputation is their most valuable asset. They are going to be very hesitant to ever cancel bets unless they are absolutely sure the fix was in as it is a bad look for a gambling business. I know that sounds crazy to most who bet online because most other books are always a bit shady and love any excuse to cancel a winning bet. Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one. You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take. | ||
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sertas
Sweden888 Posts
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NinjaNight
428 Posts
Judging by this I think the declaration of Macsed's innocence by their investigation might be inevitable. I'm seeing low quality everywhere, why should the investigation be any different? | ||
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JasonOfAeson
33 Posts
On March 16 2019 18:38 sertas wrote: Ive checked this thread a few time and i keep seeing people with 0-10 posts coming here giving super stupid reasons to defend macsed. I wonder how many of these accounts are macsed himself, just saying. Should be looked into who this guy thats making 10+ accounts to come here and write stuff is. If the arguments are 'super stupid' they should be quite easy for you to dismantle. I mean, really, think about it, chief -- you're the one who's now arguing on the basis of post counts and essentially suggesting that there is a conspiracy... and yet... we're supposed to be the stupid ones? | ||
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sertas
Sweden888 Posts
On March 16 2019 18:47 JasonOfAeson wrote: If the arguments are 'super stupid' they should be quite easy for you to dismantle. I mean, really, think about it, chief -- you're the one who's now arguing on the basis of post counts and essentially suggesting that there is a conspiracy... and yet... we're supposed to be the stupid ones? If you defend macssed and think this wasnt matchfixing you are not the brightest person. Also wouldnt surprise me if all these 1 post guys giving long statements what an amazing guy macsed is and that he would never cheat comes from the same ip, given how bad the fix was. | ||
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Wardi
England897 Posts
On March 16 2019 17:45 Powerfoe wrote: First of all, you need to realize that Pinnacle is the largest offshore sportsbook in the world and that losing thousands on a small match is nothing to them. To quote /u/Frammow1 from /r/starcraft, who is a lot more knowledgeable about the industry than I am: Based on this info, it's not surprising to me that their algorithm doesn't catch the irregular betting pattern of a super small time line such as this one. You might not like this, but most people agree that viewing this as a match fix is a reasonable take. Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches. You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case. The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof. Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past. The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad. | ||
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Wardi
England897 Posts
On March 16 2019 18:43 NinjaNight wrote: Wow the incompetence of this tournament makes me even less confident that the investigation will be a competent one. All kinds of production issues prior to today. Then earlier today Rotti makes a tweet suggesting even he doesn't know exactly what is going on in terms of the tournament schedule. Now on what everyone thought was going to be the final day they only give us a little over 2 hours of action before ending it leaving the finals and 3rd place match for tomorrow. What offline tournament concludes a day with only a couple hours of games when there's still more left to be played? This is bizarre. Judging by this I think the declaration of Macsed's innocence by their investigation might be inevitable. I'm seeing low quality everywhere, why should the investigation be any different? Rottis tweet said the schedule may change depending on other games, because they share the stage with other titles. Its impossible to predict delays / fast matches so there was a possibility of schedule changes on the day. Grand finals and third place match has always been scheduled forSunday, if you thought otherwise then you have bad information. Its been public knowledge for a while too. You have to understand this is a tournament with more than just SC2 and so the schedule reflects that. What offline tournanent concludes a day with only two hours played when there is more to be played? GSL maybe? They have days of 2 BO5 or 1 BO7. Its really not that ridiculous | ||
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JasonOfAeson
33 Posts
On March 16 2019 18:52 sertas wrote: If you defend macssed and think this wasnt matchfixing you are not the brightest person. Also wouldnt surprise me if all these 1 post guys giving long statements what an amazing guy macsed is and that he would never cheat comes from the same ip, given how bad the fix was. Yeah, of course, man. MacSed with the multi-account damage control propaganda campaign, but also too stupid to make his loss look as convincing as possible. Match fixed games don't look match fixed. That's how people get away with them for so long. Even the best player in the world can play an absolute trash can of a game from time to time. Some of my worst games are when I didn't take my opponent seriously at all. | ||
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NinjaNight
428 Posts
On March 16 2019 19:01 Wardi wrote: Rottis tweet said the schedule may change depending on other games, because they share the stage with other titles. Its impossible to predict delays / fast matches so there was a possibility of schedule changes on the day. Grand finals and third place match has always been scheduled forSunday, if you thought otherwise then you have bad information. Its been public knowledge for a while too. You have to understand this is a tournament with more than just SC2 and so the schedule reflects that. What offline tournanent concludes a day with only two hours played when there is more to be played? GSL maybe? They have days of 2 BO5 or 1 BO7. Its really not that ridiculous Agreed on Rottis tweet. Everyone I've talked to was shocked that the day ended so early, the chat was too. Even TL calendar only had it listed for today, there's nothing tomorrow. So apparently they were taken by surprise as well. GSL is different. I knew someone would bring that up. There you consistently have a few people in a group and the matches just take however long they take. Usually there's 4 players who duke it out to advance with multiple series. This tournament is more like IEM where you go all day. In GSL it makes sense for it to rarely conclude in only a couple hours if the games happen to be very short. Suddenly stopping WESG after only 2 series and a couple hours is the strangest thing I've ever seen in an SC2 tournament. I feel it would've been the perfect length had they also played the 3rd place match and the final. Anyway regardless of that there have been major production issues. I don't mean to be too harsh, this just makes me lose confidence in what we're going to get. I have still definitely enjoyed this tournament and it was worth it. | ||
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romson87
Poland487 Posts
On March 16 2019 18:57 Wardi wrote: Yet they have voided bets in the past for matches that had line swings and suspicious betting patterns and yet no accusations of match fixing came from any of the matches. You can cherry pick information however you want, but it is wrong to accuse a guy of match fixing and to keep accusing him of it even when the evidence/investigations starts to say its not the case. The witch hunt that has gone on here is disgusting. Did the game look weird? Yes, but it was a very weird situation and we can analyze it as much as we want but there is no proof. Were the betting lines weird? Yes. But betmakers have had wrong lines in the past, have voided matches before too. When they say there was no suspicious betting its probably because there was no suspicious betting, not because they have a reputation to upkeep considering this didn’t stop them voiding bets in the past. The sad thing is no matter what happens right now people are always going to hear MacSed and say ‘the matchfixer?’ Which is why this entire thing has been handled awfully. He was guilty from the start because thats how it was portrayed, which is sad. Just out of curiosity - what is the evidence and official investigators you're talking about saying about the whole thing?? | ||
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Pangpootata
1838 Posts
On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote: I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. | ||
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Wardi
England897 Posts
On March 16 2019 19:13 romson87 wrote: Just out of curiosity - what is the evidence and official investigators you're talking about saying about the whole thing?? The evidence is the lack of any action being taken. The betting site which has apparently lost thousands of dollars has not voided the bets which means they dont feel like it was suspicious & WESG had MacSed casting the chinese stream today which suggests they believe he is innocent. Also MacSeds statement bringing some more information than Seventy91 was given the build by Rail etc | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote: Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money. | ||
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JasonOfAeson
33 Posts
It doesn't seem probable MacSed's motive is greed, because his career after progaming is completely dependant on his reputation. The risk vs. reward scenario is ridiculous. Or are there people that think he made thousands upon thousands of dollars off of this? In most match fixing scenarios, the players aren't the organisers and only take an insignificant cut. Noone knows how much money had to be placed to move the betting lines as much as they did. In my experience, the betting lines on Starcraft 2 move around quite a lot because it's a low volume betting scene. So it's entirely possible this was done with thousands of dollars rather than tens of thousand. In which case the overall profit isn't really much to divvy out. So either MacSed is legitimately the worst match fixer in the world, who somehow manages not to get picked up on by WESG, Pinnacle or anyone else. Or... MacSed played a shitty game because he didn't take his opponent seriously, got flustered, and got a well deserved smack down... and OP shouldn't have bet $300 if he couldn't bare losing it. | ||
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Wardi
England897 Posts
On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote: Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity? Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money. This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious. | ||
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Pangpootata
1838 Posts
On March 16 2019 19:20 opisska wrote: Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money. Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive. It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets. | ||
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Pangpootata
1838 Posts
On March 16 2019 19:23 Wardi wrote: So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity? Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money. This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious. They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them. This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion. Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions. | ||
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