On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game."
Isn't canon rush a buildorder-win against a zealot rush?!
You wall the ramp, place a canon behind and the opponent will never be able to get into your base. Meanwhile you can slowly creep towards their nexus which they can't do anything about because they lack a ranged unit which could kill the probe and attack building canons without being in range of those that finished already.
So we are talking about a 6k player losing to a 4k player in a game where he has pretty much a default buildorderwin.
That in combination with rather unusual event of betting line change... I don't know Kev
Have followed this thread from the beginning as I always love these investigations. big props to OP for doing the work on the betting line ends and to the youtuber who posted his analysis of the replay.
In my opinion this is 100% match fixing if you look at either side of the evidence-- the replay or the betting lines-- and when you put the two together it is absolutely ridiculous to conclude that this was not a fixed game.
Walling off with the cannon not once, not twice, but three times when he had IN-GAME EVIDENCE that this did not work-- he literally saw the single zealot out dps a warping-in cannon multiple times; for anyone to discount this as bullshit is absolutely ridiculous. macsed is a professional sc2 player not some jobber they found on the street. he is clearly ignoring knowledge he possesses in order to throw the game. it is really sad that he had to expose himself so much to lose to this player, and he really flubbed every possible step.
It is absolutely unacceptable to lose scouting probes to zealots especially when you are cannon rushing and you have a cannon up and you are only facing zealots. we watched a 6k+ mmr protoss execute a cannon rush at a silver level in a game he knew he could lose and still win the series because his opponent is trash. i would like to see the other games in the series and note how he doesn't make silver league mistakes.
macsed should be blacklisted from any tournament that has any dignity. you don't have to invite him and even if we don't get more evidence i think what we have is enough that no one would want to work with him anymore.
Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
LOL thanks for posting this. i really wanted to see the other games in the series. i figured it would be night and day and what do you know. lock him up
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
imo they need to throw the book at him and make an example
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
The one consolation I guess, when somebody is this bad at throwing a game, it can safely be assumed that he hasnt been doing this for long, probably a first, fumbled attempt
I'm guessing the people who say in game evidence doesn't count have poor SC2 gamesense, haven't played the game at a high level, and aren't aware of how utterly incriminating this series actually is in reality.
The betting line is great evidence, yes, but the replay is equally great evidence if you really completely understand what you're seeing.
Anyway even if you only want to focus on the betting line non-serious bettors may not realize how rare/suspect a line move like this really is.
1) The super strange line movement only happened for this game out of all the games in the tournament
2) A player like Macsed doesn't have good chances to make a deep tournament run and is likely to be tempted by his most profitable option: matchfixing. He also wasn't required to lose the series so he has nothing to lose by dropping a game in the series for his partner in crime. He still has chances to do something in the tournament after that.
3) A line movement like this can literally only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on Seventy to win the game.
4) Who would bet a huge sum of money on exactly the correct game at huge underdog odds on a player who is so outclassed it's silly? That is, unless they knew it was prearranged?
5) Such drastic line moves are very rare because it basically only happens when someone knows 100% for sure who is going to win before it even begins
Combine all this with the outrageous events precisely pointed out by BeastyQT (who is a very strong former professional player) and we have more than enough of a fundamental base to justify doing something about this.
I'm guessing the people who say in game evidence doesn't count have poor SC2 gamesense, haven't played the game at a high level, and aren't aware of how utterly incriminating this series actually is in reality.
The betting line is great evidence, yes, but the replay is equally great evidence if you really completely understand what you're seeing.
Anyway even if you only want to focus on the betting line non-serious bettors may not realize how rare/suspect a line move like this really is.
1) The super strange line movement only happened for this game out of all the games in the tournament
2) A player like Macsed doesn't have good chances to make a deep tournament run and is likely to be tempted by his most profitable option: matchfixing. He also wasn't required to lose the series so he has nothing to lose by dropping a game in the series for his partner in crime. He still has chances to do something in the tournament after that.
3) A line movement like this can literally only mean one thing: someone bet a very large amount of money on Seventy to win the game.
4) Who would bet a huge sum of money on exactly the correct game at huge underdog odds on a player who is so outclassed it's silly? That is, unless they knew it was prearranged?
5) Such drastic line moves are very rare because it basically only happens when someone knows 100% for sure who is going to win before it even begins
Combine all this with the outrageous events precisely pointed out by BeastyQT (who is a very strong former professional player) and we have more than enough of a fundamental base to justify doing something about this.
I agree 100% I am thoroughly convinced macsed took part in match fixing. as i stated, the replay and the betting line changes independently were enough to raise suspicion but when taken together we can see there is no coincidence. lifetime ban worthy for sure
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
The one consolation I guess, when somebody is this bad at throwing a game, it can safely be assumed that he hasnt been doing this for long, probably a first, fumbled attempt
not much of a consolation. if you botch your first attempted rape the judge won't be so lenient-- "he's not a great rapist so i'l reduce the sentence! and he's a first time offender! community service!"
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
The one consolation I guess, when somebody is this bad at throwing a game, it can safely be assumed that he hasnt been doing this for long, probably a first, fumbled attempt
I have to point out that might actually be a mistaken assumption. I mean we are talking GM trying to lose against a diamond player, it is much easier to throw smoothly against an actual good player because you don't "need" to play stupid stupid to lose.
On March 15 2019 03:36 Starcloud wrote: Agreed with Beasty. You dont suddenly drop from GM - Silver in one game, how bad you try. That is a horrible game from silver-league, if not even from that. So bad. Sad for the Starcraft scene, hopefully this goes forward fast and judgements are given.
The one consolation I guess, when somebody is this bad at throwing a game, it can safely be assumed that he hasnt been doing this for long, probably a first, fumbled attempt
I have to point out that might actually be a mistaken assumption. I mean we are talking GM trying to lose against a diamond player, it is much easier to throw smoothly against an actual good player because you don't "need" to play stupid stupid to lose.
yes i think the most damning evidence is the 3 cannon placements to make the wall after the first one didn't work. and he knew the first one wouldn't work. its a damn disgrace it's the equivalent of a qb just throwing the ball to the other team over and over again and saying 'my arm hurt drrr'
On March 15 2019 04:46 NinjaNight wrote: Some people just can't see the truth if it slaps them in the face.
i appreciate you dedicating the time to investigate this. now, in my opinion, the only people defending macsed are delusional or misinformed. he probably figured this was his last tournament anyway. i don't think we will hear from him again
On March 15 2019 05:18 oXoCube wrote: Clear and obvious fixing.
It's an attempt so amateur hour that it's fairly shocking he thought he would get away with it.
i think he was counting on the game not being streamed and that no one would look into the other player's history
If there weren't a few people betting on this specific match, I doubt it would have been noticed even though it was streamed. It seems like an unlikely match to attract bets or attention to begin with.
On March 15 2019 05:18 oXoCube wrote: Clear and obvious fixing.
It's an attempt so amateur hour that it's fairly shocking he thought he would get away with it.
i think he was counting on the game not being streamed and that no one would look into the other player's history
If there weren't a few people betting on this specific match, I doubt it would have been noticed even though it was streamed. It seems like an unlikely match to attract bets or attention to begin with.
yeah. he should have known that if the fix was on more eyes would be on this match. seems like the word of the fix got out and a lot of people were in the know. that or he had multiple accounts bet against himself. idk why but the only thing i love more than esports is esports controversy.
EPT
