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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote:
Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧，第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜，当然所有人都和我这么说，我也觉得他很菜，然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢，但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿，我就封了他得气，一旦封了他拿什么打我低保？可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的，因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的，所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的，因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束，然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了，当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误，但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了，因为我家里已经挡不住了，他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我，太丢人了"
My translation:
"The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game." |
If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
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I feel like TL is becoming reddit :D so quick to pull your pitchforks out of the closet, its a mirror matchup, MacSeed out of practice, shit happens and ppl go bonkers because of betting line...
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On March 14 2019 21:59 inermis wrote:
I feel like TL is becoming reddit :D so quick to pull your pitchforks out of the closet, its a mirror matchup, MacSeed out of practice, shit happens and ppl go bonkers because of betting line...
If you disagree with the "pitchforks" then you got to offer counter-arguments and not this petulant crap.
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Another player giving Seventy91 his strategy makes this even more likely to be match fixing because MacSed transitions from a failed cannon rush and beats a Seventy91 in a macro game 99/100 times. If it is cheese vs cheese, MacSed has to try a lot less to throw the game.
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On March 14 2019 22:03 Puosu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 21:59 inermis wrote:
I feel like TL is becoming reddit :D so quick to pull your pitchforks out of the closet, its a mirror matchup, MacSeed out of practice, shit happens and ppl go bonkers because of betting line... If you disagree with the "pitchforks" then you got to offer counter-arguments and not this petulant crap.
Because arguing with lynch mobs is so productive? Any game lost to a 4k MMR player is going to look suspicious when seen through the eyes of someone looking for confirmation of match-fixing after those betting odd swings.
Leave the investigating to WESG and Blizzard, who at least won't start with assumptions of guilt--but maybe the fact that they have some standards of evidence and aren't guaranteed to condemn MacSed is a problem to you.
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On March 14 2019 23:48 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 22:03 Puosu wrote:On March 14 2019 21:59 inermis wrote:
I feel like TL is becoming reddit :D so quick to pull your pitchforks out of the closet, its a mirror matchup, MacSeed out of practice, shit happens and ppl go bonkers because of betting line... If you disagree with the "pitchforks" then you got to offer counter-arguments and not this petulant crap. Because arguing with lynch mobs is so productive? Any game lost to a 4k MMR player is going to look suspicious when seen through the eyes of someone looking for confirmation of match-fixing after those betting odd swings. Leave the investigating to WESG and Blizzard, who at least won't start with assumptions of guilt--but maybe the fact that they have some standards of evidence and aren't guaranteed to condemn MacSed is a problem to you.
yo i get it, we got to stop all discussion and debate because pitchforks, lynch mobs and worst of all redditors
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All I'm reading from Macsed's statement is that Rail was also involved in this to help cover it up.
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On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote:
If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious?
I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted.
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On March 14 2019 17:32 Geo.Rion wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 17:22 opisska wrote:
I continue to dislike the "betting line movement" witchhunts. This is simply something out of control for the players. Someone can ruin their reputation by placing weird bets without them having any idea it's happening and no recourse. Finding "suspicious" ingame behavior to boost your confirmation bias will never be super hard. I mean, sure, it's theoretically possible, but the chances are so minuscule for scenarios like that. Someone maliciously wanted to target a mid-tier Chinese (semi-)pro player, by placing weird bets, risking his own money, and happens to nail the one game that it actually pans out? There's a non-zero chance for that, sure, as there is a non-zero chance for someone just blindly picking out that map of that meaningless and low profile series, betting against the odds, and hitting the jackpot. As it was said before, if only irrefutable and tangible proof paired with a confession would be enough basis for proving any sort of cheating, than pretty much all the cheaters would get away with everything. I also agree, that those competent with investigating it should do so, but in the meantime, it's completely fine for the community to form an opinion based on what we do know. If the actual investigation turns up other things, and arrives at a different conclusion (i really dont see it in this case), then sure, that has to be taken as the final ruling. Until then....
Great post!
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On March 15 2019 01:12 Ctone23 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote:
If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious? I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted.
It's a one-direction large move, not a swing in a narrow band.
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On March 15 2019 01:12 Ctone23 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote:
If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious? I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted.
Don't read much of anything into this. If someone bet $10,000 or whatever amount on a huge underdog, that would raise major red flags. A smart person could reduce that risk by making smaller bets with a bunch of different accounts.
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On March 14 2019 18:40 ZenithM wrote:
Something that we couldn't have imagined yet that could maybe start convincing us he's innocent. Personal circumstance, specific pro-gamer type reads that would justify to us peasants the multiple mistakes, I don't know. What MacSed just said was "ohhh what a good build, I lost so easily!".
And to reiterate what I said earlier, his message doesn't change my view that a replay and a weird betting pattern are not enough to ban him from tournaments. But "justice" and people's beliefs are two separate things. I can believe he match fixed but also think you can't ban him yet.
Completely understand this, but there needs to be a point where the evidence is just too strong. In my opinion we already have enough to work with. I have a feeling the investigators won't find their standard of "sufficient evidence" because the matchfixers effectively keep their dealings secret. So he can do this crap and just get away with it, no problem. While Life gets all kinds of serious punishment just because he was the one that didn't hide his dealings well enough. We're rewarding the more competent criminals essentially.
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On March 15 2019 01:12 Ctone23 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote:
If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious? I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted.
Hey good question. I'll try my best to answer. It's not about the "speed" it changes. It's the money that comes in that changes the line. When a low volume game like sc2 (compared to football), the line can change easily in the beginning. Let's say you bet 100$, it might shift a bit. But the more money comes in (= later), the bigger bets it requires to move. So for example in the beginning you'd need 100$ to move the line 0.1, but in the end you'd need 1000$. If it takes a longer period for the line to move, that actually means there's more time for other people to adjust and bet against it. So it likely meant even more money went in with absurd odds.
Rotterdam commented on reddit that he'd lose 1 game every 30 or 50 games with 2000 MMR difference. I think that's already a bit generous if you think about a tournament setting and playing seriously. But let's go with 30. The line went up 2.06, meaning the probability of MacSeD winning 2-0 was ~45%.
If you lose 1 every 30 games, that's 3,3% probability to lose a game. In order to go 2-0 that's ~93%.
93% vs 45%. In sports betting even 1% is enough to get the edge for profitable betting. The difference is completely absurd. The fact that it look longer meant other people would resist the line moving that way. It means someone is dumping lots and lots of money - because he knows the outcome.
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On March 14 2019 19:57 Stormhoof wrote:Hello, I felt obliged to participate in this thread since my and Seventy names are in it. Someone obviosly made fake Seventy91 profile on reddit and is writing complete bs because seventy cannot spend more then 5 mins on fb or tw before connection colapse. Dont know if Chinese state is to be blamed for this but he is out of our sc2 viber group since he left, we cant communicate much with him. I only saw sshots of his writings to us that he heard of matchfixing but has no idea if its true. One gate in base and 3 proxied was hisnidea to confuse macsed and his roommate Rail told.him its good so he tried. Just want to say that he wasnt involved. I dont kniw for Macsed. If u ask me, its impossible for him to lose even 1 unit and not a map to seventy and it should be investigated but lets not drag Serbian into this. I am not defending him because we are countrymans, just because i know he was trying hard for this and it was macseds bs if he let him take a map for money. If you ask me personally, no one of us from Serbia who played in qualifier cant take map from and player with 5000 and more mmr. So MacSed should be bannes for this but Seventy has nothing to do with that. Kind regards to all, (Zerox, stormhoof, nithala) 
Very interesting thanks for your thoughts!
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On March 14 2019 20:15 DwD wrote:
The explanation given is something completely different when you actually watch the actual game. There is just no way this isn't a match fix. So many WTF moments from a pro player.
And then add into the fact that someone, out in the nether bets HEAVY on this outcome to occur but doesnt bet like that on any other match.
Blizzard should investigate this and I would say I'm at least 99% certain this is a fix.
Good detective work by OP, hope you can re-earn your loss.
Exactly but according to some people we can't use the actual game as evidence *rolls eyes*. Lmao...
That's an insult to our intelligence, essentially saying that no one can distinguish between matchfixing behavior and non-matchfixing behavior. Maybe you can't do that with high reliability and you don't know how to do it scientifically. That doesn't mean it's impossible.
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On March 14 2019 21:19 travis wrote:
Macsed's reply is like when a 6 year old tries to use random unrelated facts to conceal the real truth because they don't want to admit they took the cookie.
Bingo!
User was warned for this post
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Hey Ninja, I can see that you care deeply about this issue, but you're borderline spamming there bud.
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If it walks like a matchfix, talks like a matchfix and looks like a matchfix, it is a very possible matchfix. Perfect game and situation to pull one off.
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On March 15 2019 01:31 Jarree wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2019 01:12 Ctone23 wrote:On March 14 2019 21:41 Jarree wrote:
If the betting lines are correct, there is no other explanation than matchfixing. 2,06 for 2-0 is completely absurd. That's around 45% probability. The betting lines move through the collective intelligence on the bettors and they represent very closely to the best possible estimate of the actual probability.
The skill difference in these players suggest easily 90+% probability for 2-0. If it was 5% or even 10% off, that could be because of something else. But when the betting line moves to below 50%, it means it's more likely that MacSeD drops a map. And (some) bettors knew it.
In my 10+ years in the gambling industry, this is one of the dumbest matchfixes I've seen. I think the information of him losing a map on purpose might have leaked out of the inner circle of the fixers, since it was seen on Pinnacle. Usually these fixers only place bets on unofficial and unregulated sites (such as the chinese underground sites).
Between the 16 minutes the first and second bet OP made, the line changed from 1.371 to 1.341, or -.001875 per minute. OP says a "couple hours later" that the line moves tremendously from 1.34 to 2.06, but looking at the screenshots, those couple hours were really 5.5 hours. A .72 change over 5.5 hours comes out to .002181 per minute. Is a .000306 difference per minute really that suspicious? I'm definitely not an expert on suspicious betting lines, I just did some quick math and it seemed like the rate of change was not hugely different, aside from the line going in the opposite direction. I guess i'm not understanding and am curious as to what stands out, other than the skill difference noted. Hey good question. I'll try my best to answer. It's not about the "speed" it changes. It's the money that comes in that changes the line. When a low volume game like sc2 (compared to football), the line can change easily in the beginning. Let's say you bet 100$, it might shift a bit. But the more money comes in (= later), the bigger bets it requires to move. So for example in the beginning you'd need 100$ to move the line 0.1, but in the end you'd need 1000$. If it takes a longer period for the line to move, that actually means there's more time for other people to adjust and bet against it. So it likely meant even more money went in with absurd odds. Rotterdam commented on reddit that he'd lose 1 game every 30 or 50 games with 2000 MMR difference. I think that's already a bit generous if you think about a tournament setting and playing seriously. But let's go with 30. The line went up 2.06, meaning the probability of MacSeD winning 2-0 was ~45%. If you lose 1 every 30 games, that's 3,3% probability to lose a game. In order to go 2-0 that's ~93%. 93% vs 45%. In sports betting even 1% is enough to get the edge for profitable betting. The difference is completely absurd. The fact that it look longer meant other people would resist the line moving that way. It means someone is dumping lots and lots of money - because he knows the outcome.
I see, thanks for taking the time to explain. I'm not much of a gambler.
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On March 15 2019 01:42 travis wrote:
Hey Ninja, I can see that you care deeply about this issue, but you're borderline spamming there bud.
I know, that's why I stopped posting there. I don't plan to post again for at least another 12 hours or longer.
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EPT
