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On January 19 2018 20:24 Snarosc wrote:
The only way I see a non sOs vs Zest finals is DnS actually upsetting sOs.. And given DnS recent performances in korea that wouldn't be such an upset (+ it's PvP).
Zest & sOs playing foreign zergs right after the Hydralisk nerf.. Can't see them lose, especially in a Bo5.
Seems like a lot of people missed DnS' improvement. He is the #3 foreign Protoss in my book behind Neeb and Showtime, although that may be my German bias and I saw uThermal rank DnS above Showtime yesterday. He probably has his reasons.
I completely agree that sOs shouldn't lose to foreign Zergs and let's not even talk about the Terrans. And since he could not have been seeded against Zest, I think the strongest foreign Protoss at the event was the worst draw sOs could've gotten.
Of course sOs still has a 70% chance of winning in my book, but it's still the worst draw for him imo.
On January 19 2018 10:24 Kovzirg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2018 04:06 Musicus wrote:
Honestly, DNS might be the most dangerous opponent sOs could've gotten I think. Lol’d.
Explained it a bit more above, most dangerous does not mean that it's a 50/50 matchup or anything like that.
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Poor stephano. That's a though one to beat.
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sOs is top 3 PvP player of all time. Assuming he takes the event seriously (which he normally doesn't unless it's GSL) there's no chance he loses to a protoss (outside Classic or Zest)
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Canada8991 Posts
On January 19 2018 20:42 Pr0wler wrote:
It turns out that SC2 is actually a winter sport... Who knew ?
Tod must be so mad
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On January 19 2018 03:39 Lysergic1 wrote:
Anyone want to bet against a Zest/SoS finals? If Zest practices his PvZ, that covers all 3 of the threats on his side of the bracket.
Good luck finding anyone that foolish. Also, what "threats"? This is gonna be as straightforward as we always knew right from when the format was announced. The bracket is rather irrelevant as long as Zest and $o$ are in separate halves.
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Canada8991 Posts
On January 20 2018 03:13 opisska wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2018 03:39 Lysergic1 wrote:
Anyone want to bet against a Zest/SoS finals? If Zest practices his PvZ, that covers all 3 of the threats on his side of the bracket. Good luck finding anyone that foolish. Also, what "threats"? This is gonna be as straightforward as we always knew right from when the format was announced. The bracket is rather irrelevant as long as Zest and $o$ are in separate halves.
Stephano 3-1 Zest calling it now.
sOs still win the whole thing.
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Good luck finding anyone that foolish. Also, what "threats"? This is gonna be as straightforward as we always knew right from when the format was announced. The bracket is rather irrelevant as long as Zest and $o$ are in separate halves.
Zest has really a small chance getting past both Elazer and Serral. On the other side of the bracket SoS might also have a bumpy road to the final. I would say there is a realistic chance for a foreigner final.
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No WCS points is a good thing, given the way the qualifiers were structured. "Olympic-style" events that invite a few competitors from each country can be entertaining for fans of that, but they're a pretty bad form of actual competition.
Just look at WESG last year. And the one this year. And this IEM.
On January 20 2018 04:47 Kafka777 wrote:Show nested quote +Good luck finding anyone that foolish. Also, what "threats"? This is gonna be as straightforward as we always knew right from when the format was announced. The bracket is rather irrelevant as long as Zest and $o$ are in separate halves. Zest has really a small chance getting past both Elazer and Serral. On the other side of the bracket SoS might also have a bumpy road to the final. I would say there is a realistic chance for a foreigner final.
Depends on how far you stretch "realistic."
Zest and sOs aren't Korean Terrans, but even still, given Neeb's WCS performance last year against foreign Zergs, a Korean final is the most likely outcome.
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On January 20 2018 04:47 Kafka777 wrote:Show nested quote +Good luck finding anyone that foolish. Also, what "threats"? This is gonna be as straightforward as we always knew right from when the format was announced. The bracket is rather irrelevant as long as Zest and $o$ are in separate halves. Zest has really a small chance getting past both Elazer and Serral. On the other side of the bracket SoS might also have a bumpy road to the final. I would say there is a realistic chance for a foreigner final.
The continued delusion of TL is remarkable. Or did you fail to notice which country do Zest and sOs come from?
I am not trying to diss korea-west competition, I like to watch it, especially now that it is so rare, but the realistic chance of foreigners beating koreans in high-profile matches is still extremely slim.
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On January 20 2018 05:15 opisska wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2018 04:47 Kafka777 wrote:Good luck finding anyone that foolish. Also, what "threats"? This is gonna be as straightforward as we always knew right from when the format was announced. The bracket is rather irrelevant as long as Zest and $o$ are in separate halves. Zest has really a small chance getting past both Elazer and Serral. On the other side of the bracket SoS might also have a bumpy road to the final. I would say there is a realistic chance for a foreigner final. The continued delusion of TL is remarkable. Or did you fail to notice which country do Zest and sOs come from? I am not trying to diss korea-west competition, I like to watch it, especially now that it is so rare, but the realistic chance of foreigners beating koreans in high-profile matches is still extremely slim.
To be fair Zest's PvZ looked like utter garbage against soO in his GSL group. If he plays like that again, Elazer or Serral beating him doesn't sound too unlikely.
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On January 20 2018 03:15 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2018 03:13 opisska wrote:On January 19 2018 03:39 Lysergic1 wrote:
Anyone want to bet against a Zest/SoS finals? If Zest practices his PvZ, that covers all 3 of the threats on his side of the bracket. Good luck finding anyone that foolish. Also, what "threats"? This is gonna be as straightforward as we always knew right from when the format was announced. The bracket is rather irrelevant as long as Zest and $o$ are in separate halves. Stephano 3-1 Zest calling it now. sOs still win the whole thing.
You are a believer Godphano will repay you that. :> GO STEPHANO <3
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The continued delusion of TL is remarkable. Or did you fail to notice which country do Zest and sOs come from?
I am not trying to diss korea-west competition, I like to watch it, especially now that it is so rare, but the realistic chance of foreigners beating koreans in high-profile matches is still extremely slim.
Lets look at Elazer - Zest - historical results 7:8 map score. I would say Elazer's form is still improving while Zest's is declining. Aligulac prediction
(2668) Elazer 0-0 Zest (2486)
-----------------------------------------
19.51% 3-0 0-3 7.41%
24.59% 3-1 1-3 12.89%
20.65% 3-2 2-3 14.95%
-----------------------------------------
64.75% 35.25%
Median outcome: Elazer 3-2 Zest[
with Serral it gets even better - historical score -1 in favour of Serral
(2859) Serral 0-0 Zest (2486)
-----------------------------------------
28.76% 3-0 0-3 3.93%
29.33% 3-1 1-3 7.78%
19.94% 3-2 2-3 10.27%
-----------------------------------------
78.03% 21.97%
Median outcome: Serral 3-1 Zest[
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On January 20 2018 05:38 Kafka777 wrote:Show nested quote +The continued delusion of TL is remarkable. Or did you fail to notice which country do Zest and sOs come from?
I am not trying to diss korea-west competition, I like to watch it, especially now that it is so rare, but the realistic chance of foreigners beating koreans in high-profile matches is still extremely slim. Lets look at Elazer - Zest - historical results 7:8 map score. I would say Elazer's form is still improving while Zest's is declining. Aligulac prediction (2668) Elazer 0-0 Zest (2486) ----------------------------------------- 19.51% 3-0 0-3 7.41% 24.59% 3-1 1-3 12.89% 20.65% 3-2 2-3 14.95% ----------------------------------------- 64.75% 35.25% Median outcome: Elazer 3-2 Zest[ with Serral it gets even better - historical score -1 in favour of Serral (2859) Serral 0-0 Zest (2486) ----------------------------------------- 28.76% 3-0 0-3 3.93% 29.33% 3-1 1-3 7.78% 19.94% 3-2 2-3 10.27% ----------------------------------------- 78.03% 21.97% Median outcome: Serral 3-1 Zest[
Aligulac, aside from being notoriously unreliable for predicting h2h matches (because it uses career history instead of current form), is even more notoriously unreliable for comparing Koreans and foreigners (because Koreans play mostly Koreans and foreigners play mostly foreigners).
Serral, for instance, is currently ranked #1 on aligulac. Unless you think Serral is actually stronger than all the Koreans right now, you should probably hesitate before using aligulac in this case.
You may be right, you may be wrong, but aligulac predictions don't do much to show either one. If you're going to argue something, at least be convincing.
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I agree with flaws Aligulac offers, however the point is these players already have a close or better historical result vs Zest. They are much younger players who are improving their skill while Zest top form is past and there is no way it will get better. This results from mechanical limitations associated with age. The argument of Opisska - that Koreans are unbeatable in important matches is also flawed as Koreans have lost quite a lot of important games even at Blizzcon.
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On January 20 2018 05:58 Kafka777 wrote:
I agree with flaws Aligulac offers, however the point is these players already have a close or better historical result vs Zest. They are much younger players who are improving their skill while Zest top form is past and there is no way it will get better. This results from mechanical limitations associated with age. The argument of Opisska - that Koreans are unbeatable in important matches is also flawed as Koreans have lost quite a lot of important games even at Blizzcon.
https://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/7bgdt3/since_last_years_blizzcon_foreigners_are_359/
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On January 20 2018 06:19 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2018 05:58 Kafka777 wrote:
I agree with flaws Aligulac offers, however the point is these players already have a close or better historical result vs Zest. They are much younger players who are improving their skill while Zest top form is past and there is no way it will get better. This results from mechanical limitations associated with age. The argument of Opisska - that Koreans are unbeatable in important matches is also flawed as Koreans have lost quite a lot of important games even at Blizzcon. https://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/7bgdt3/since_last_years_blizzcon_foreigners_are_359/
Why do you keep on pulling out that worthless post where you chose parameters specifically to prove your point? Plus it's outdated. Everyone knows Koreans are still better than foreigners--you don't have to carefully construct your statistics to include a bunch of top Koreans beating up C-tier foreigners.
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These results from reddit are manipulated to prove a misguided point as they leave out some events. For example the event that Neeb has won in Korea. They ignore some other HSC, they ignore bo 3. etc. This year we really should see the effect of separating WCS from Koreans. Neeb, Special, Elazer and Serral should be on the forefront of proving that.
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On January 20 2018 06:25 Kafka777 wrote:
These results from reddit are manipulated to prove a misguided point as they leave out some events. For example the event that Neeb has won in Korea. They ignore some other HSC, they ignore bo 3. etc. This year we really should see the effect of separating WCS from Koreans. Neeb, Special, Elazer and Serral should be on the forefront of proving that.
Kespa Cup was before Blizzcon 2017 which was my starting point. the other HSC took place after I collected the data.
On January 20 2018 06:25 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2018 06:19 Charoisaur wrote:On January 20 2018 05:58 Kafka777 wrote:
I agree with flaws Aligulac offers, however the point is these players already have a close or better historical result vs Zest. They are much younger players who are improving their skill while Zest top form is past and there is no way it will get better. This results from mechanical limitations associated with age. The argument of Opisska - that Koreans are unbeatable in important matches is also flawed as Koreans have lost quite a lot of important games even at Blizzcon. https://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/7bgdt3/since_last_years_blizzcon_foreigners_are_359/ Why do you keep on pulling out that worthless post where you chose parameters specifically to prove your point? Plus it's outdated. Everyone knows foreigners are still better than Korean--you don't have to carefully construct your statistics to include a bunch of top Koreans beating up C-tier foreigners.
I don't want to prove a point, the numbers speak for itself. dominating results in bo5 show koreans are more favored the longer the series goes. 59-3 doesn't happen randomly.
Everyone knows foreigners are still better than Korean
no
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On January 20 2018 06:30 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2018 06:25 Kafka777 wrote:
These results from reddit are manipulated to prove a misguided point as they leave out some events. For example the event that Neeb has won in Korea. They ignore some other HSC, they ignore bo 3. etc. This year we really should see the effect of separating WCS from Koreans. Neeb, Special, Elazer and Serral should be on the forefront of proving that. Kespa Cup was before Blizzcon 2017 which was my starting point. the other HSC took place after I collected the data. Show nested quote +On January 20 2018 06:25 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On January 20 2018 06:19 Charoisaur wrote:On January 20 2018 05:58 Kafka777 wrote:
I agree with flaws Aligulac offers, however the point is these players already have a close or better historical result vs Zest. They are much younger players who are improving their skill while Zest top form is past and there is no way it will get better. This results from mechanical limitations associated with age. The argument of Opisska - that Koreans are unbeatable in important matches is also flawed as Koreans have lost quite a lot of important games even at Blizzcon. https://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/7bgdt3/since_last_years_blizzcon_foreigners_are_359/ Why do you keep on pulling out that worthless post where you chose parameters specifically to prove your point? Plus it's outdated. Everyone knows foreigners are still better than Korean--you don't have to carefully construct your statistics to include a bunch of top Koreans beating up C-tier foreigners. I don't want to prove a point, the numbers speak for itself. dominating results in bo5 show koreans are more favored the longer the series goes. 59-3 doesn't happen randomly.
Bullshit. You chose that criterion specifically so it would include a bunch of huge mismatches at HSC--stuff like GuMiho beating Rotterdam. The numbers speak of nothing except you manipulating the dataset.
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On January 20 2018 06:36 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2018 06:30 Charoisaur wrote:On January 20 2018 06:25 Kafka777 wrote:
These results from reddit are manipulated to prove a misguided point as they leave out some events. For example the event that Neeb has won in Korea. They ignore some other HSC, they ignore bo 3. etc. This year we really should see the effect of separating WCS from Koreans. Neeb, Special, Elazer and Serral should be on the forefront of proving that. Kespa Cup was before Blizzcon 2017 which was my starting point. the other HSC took place after I collected the data. On January 20 2018 06:25 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On January 20 2018 06:19 Charoisaur wrote:On January 20 2018 05:58 Kafka777 wrote:
I agree with flaws Aligulac offers, however the point is these players already have a close or better historical result vs Zest. They are much younger players who are improving their skill while Zest top form is past and there is no way it will get better. This results from mechanical limitations associated with age. The argument of Opisska - that Koreans are unbeatable in important matches is also flawed as Koreans have lost quite a lot of important games even at Blizzcon. https://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/7bgdt3/since_last_years_blizzcon_foreigners_are_359/ Why do you keep on pulling out that worthless post where you chose parameters specifically to prove your point? Plus it's outdated. Everyone knows foreigners are still better than Korean--you don't have to carefully construct your statistics to include a bunch of top Koreans beating up C-tier foreigners. I don't want to prove a point, the numbers speak for itself. dominating results in bo5 show koreans are more favored the longer the series goes. 59-3 doesn't happen randomly. Bullshit. You chose that criterion specifically so it would include a bunch of huge mismatches at HSC--stuff like GuMiho beating Rotterdam. The numbers speak of nothing except you manipulating the dataset.
Even without the mismatches at HSC the important games at Blizzcon, Katowice and WESG were all dominantly won by koreans. series winrate without HSC would be 1-19. Is that better?
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EPT
