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On April 15 2015 22:48 TBO wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:46 Swoopae wrote:
Of course, it allows the player throwing one map a chance to advance, which in turn would make it cheaper for the match fixers to pay the player as he isn't sacrificing as much, and the bettors can just bet on Map 1 instead of the whole series (which is what happened today in Soulkey vs Creator Map 1 - Soulkey was still a favourite to win the series, but Creator was bet in from being a big underdog to being a big favourite in Map 1 specifically) disadvantage for them should be that the volume bet on single maps probably is quite a bit lower than volume bet on matches so manipulation is more easily detectable? Or am I wrong to assume that more people bet on whole series than single maps?
The first map lines go up at the same time as match as a whole lines so the limits are usually the same or similar. Maps 2 and later only go up after the completion of the previous map so limits are lower - I assume this is why we are seeing this occur so frequently on Map 1 of a series.
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On April 15 2015 22:40 TBO wrote:
so rather than Soulkey being involved it imo is possible that someone knew what both Soulkey and Creator were going to do in the first map, which could give enough confidence to bet with such quotes. That could be either leaked insider information as well as trojans on their PCs or something similar.
Probably below 1% chance. Its a pure denial to consider these conspiracy theories at this point.
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I have a limited understanding of betting but are Pinnacle (or any betting agency for that matter) not just protecting there own money when they void bets? i.e they think soulkey will win but when they see creator getting a lot of betting support and he wins they void it because they have to pay out?
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On April 15 2015 22:34 digmouse wrote:
Oh god please no more.
According to that Huk statement on the first page of this thread, the problem isn't getting any better in Korea.
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On April 15 2015 22:15 ZAiNs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:On April 15 2015 22:09 Boucot wrote:No sound ? :/ Youtube vods are usually up a day or two after. There is sound. It's just a Twitch glitch when you click a hyperlink with a timestamp. Just refresh the page and its fine.
Ah thanks. So what I get from what HuK is saying is that one potential solution to prevent this would be to reward players for every map they win.
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Why is pinnacle always the one place we hear news from? is it where the majority of sc2 betting takes place?
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On April 15 2015 22:55 Boucot wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:15 ZAiNs wrote:On April 15 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:On April 15 2015 22:09 Boucot wrote:No sound ? :/ Youtube vods are usually up a day or two after. There is sound. It's just a Twitch glitch when you click a hyperlink with a timestamp. Just refresh the page and its fine. Ah thanks. So what I get from what HuK is saying is that one potential solution to prevent this would be to reward players for every map they win.
Need money for that...
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On April 15 2015 22:52 Exstasy wrote:
I have a limited understanding of betting but are Pinnacle (or any betting agency for that matter) not just protecting there own money when they void bets? i.e they think soulkey will win but when they see creator getting a lot of betting support and he wins they void it because they have to pay out?
1) They voided the bets a long time before its even started.
2) The amount of money they will "have to pay out" will probably be below 0.1% or even way less of their daily volume
3) If they think "Soulkey will win" (which is already the absurd statement, but lets roll with it), they would be happy to see a lot of money coming on Creator in the first place.
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On April 15 2015 22:52 Exstasy wrote:
I have a limited understanding of betting but are Pinnacle (or any betting agency for that matter) not just protecting there own money when they void bets? i.e they think soulkey will win but when they see creator getting a lot of betting support and he wins they void it because they have to pay out?
They would just be shooting themselves in the foot. It's hard to have customers as a sportsbook if people think you're closing bets you're losing on. The idea that they would void bets to prevent losing money on this is also ridiculous when you consider that they are also a book for real sports, which see much more money than SC2 probably does. They advertised single bet limits of up to 1 million USD for the world cup final last year. SC2 is chump change compared to that.
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On April 15 2015 22:56 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:55 Boucot wrote:On April 15 2015 22:15 ZAiNs wrote:On April 15 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:On April 15 2015 22:09 Boucot wrote:No sound ? :/ Youtube vods are usually up a day or two after. There is sound. It's just a Twitch glitch when you click a hyperlink with a timestamp. Just refresh the page and its fine. Ah thanks. So what I get from what HuK is saying is that one potential solution to prevent this would be to reward players for every map they win. Need money for that...
And bettors could still overbid that easily, no? That's no real solution.
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On April 15 2015 22:57 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:52 Exstasy wrote:
I have a limited understanding of betting but are Pinnacle (or any betting agency for that matter) not just protecting there own money when they void bets? i.e they think soulkey will win but when they see creator getting a lot of betting support and he wins they void it because they have to pay out? 1) They voided the bets a long time before its even started. 2) The amount of money they will "have to pay out" will probably be below 0.1% or even way less of their daily volume 3) If they think "Soulkey will win" (which is already the absurd statement, but lets roll with it), they would be happy to see a lot of money coming on Creator in the first place.
Ok so what is leading them to void the bet, simply that an unusual amount of bets are being made one way?
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On April 15 2015 22:57 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:52 Exstasy wrote:
I have a limited understanding of betting but are Pinnacle (or any betting agency for that matter) not just protecting there own money when they void bets? i.e they think soulkey will win but when they see creator getting a lot of betting support and he wins they void it because they have to pay out? 1) They voided the bets a long time before its even started. 2) The amount of money they will "have to pay out" will probably be below 0.1% or even way less of their daily volume 3) If they think "Soulkey will win" (which is already the absurd statement, but lets roll with it), they would be happy to see a lot of money coming on Creator in the first place.
Aren't these betting lines and odds created that way, so the site ALWAYS makes money no matter what?
I think that's how it works, no?
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On April 15 2015 22:52 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:40 TBO wrote:
so rather than Soulkey being involved it imo is possible that someone knew what both Soulkey and Creator were going to do in the first map, which could give enough confidence to bet with such quotes. That could be either leaked insider information as well as trojans on their PCs or something similar. Probably below 1% chance. Its a pure denial to consider these conspiracy theories at this point.
For the other matches I'd agree as the betting lines were just way beyond anything normal, and beyond anyhing where knowing the build orders is enough to bet with those lines. However it would also be naive to assume that criminals don't try to get an information advantage for free instead of having to pay bribes. Infecting a korean teamhouse is probably not that hard. I don't have any firsthand information about kespa teams but knowing what a mess korean non-kespa teams make out of their PCs then it should not be that hard to infect them remotely or have it being infected with a USB-stick by a B-Teamer, cleaning lady, visitor etc.
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On April 15 2015 22:59 The_Red_Viper wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:57 maGicc wrote:On April 15 2015 22:52 Exstasy wrote:
I have a limited understanding of betting but are Pinnacle (or any betting agency for that matter) not just protecting there own money when they void bets? i.e they think soulkey will win but when they see creator getting a lot of betting support and he wins they void it because they have to pay out? 1) They voided the bets a long time before its even started. 2) The amount of money they will "have to pay out" will probably be below 0.1% or even way less of their daily volume 3) If they think "Soulkey will win" (which is already the absurd statement, but lets roll with it), they would be happy to see a lot of money coming on Creator in the first place. Aren't these betting lines and odds created that way, so the site ALWAYS makes money no matter what? I think that's how it works, no?
The first rule of gambling is that you never bet against the house and they house ALWAYS, and I do mean ALWAYS makes money. If there is any chance they will take even a dollar loss, they will stop all activity related to it immediately.
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Good god how many more are gonna happen?!
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Austria18724 Posts
Since the games turned out to be normal I would say this was a false alarm
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
The fixes have been in since the very beginning of SC2, the BW fixing scandal didn't deter anyone. It may have actually made the problem bigger because it was huge advertising for the fact that you can bet on these kind of things online illegal very easily in Korea (online illegal betting has grown to be HUGE in Korea since then).
Matchfixing is impossible to detect if done correctly. The only reason pinnacle is voiding these matches is because someone in the fixing ring is really dumb/greedy and leaking/selling information to too many people who then in turn tell more and more then too much money goes in on the match making it obvious to the sports books that there's a fix.
A common way that they make money off their matches is to bet on 'game will end under x minutes' (a popular prop bet on korean betting sites) and then they do an all-in build where they'll win or lose under that time frame 100%. That way they still have a chance to win and get paid win or lose.
Matchfixing exists and continues to exist in all sports and games that you place bets on, it's just always going to happen. You can't demonize KESPA for not investigating and trying to do something about it, because frankly theres really nothing they can do without putting themselves out of business. You can't really demonize players either because unless theres a huge breakthrough of evidence or admission of guilt all evidence will be circumstantial. Take MKP's loss for example; the evidence that he threw that match is overwhelming (and I believe he did throw that), but it's not 100% provable. Though I do wish KESPA would release that replay so we can see FPV if he actually looked at the spine or not.
Funnily enough, when a match gets fixed these things happen:
1. The progamer who's semi-famous and on TV but still making dogshit money actually gets some cash.
2. The sportsbooks who are the roots of these problems lose some money.
3. Vast majority of people don't notice. A small percentage of the fans who are smart enough to realize the truth are dissapointed but even most of them just enjoy the drama or don't care LOL
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On April 15 2015 23:01 LongShot27 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:59 The_Red_Viper wrote:On April 15 2015 22:57 maGicc wrote:On April 15 2015 22:52 Exstasy wrote:
I have a limited understanding of betting but are Pinnacle (or any betting agency for that matter) not just protecting there own money when they void bets? i.e they think soulkey will win but when they see creator getting a lot of betting support and he wins they void it because they have to pay out? 1) They voided the bets a long time before its even started. 2) The amount of money they will "have to pay out" will probably be below 0.1% or even way less of their daily volume 3) If they think "Soulkey will win" (which is already the absurd statement, but lets roll with it), they would be happy to see a lot of money coming on Creator in the first place. Aren't these betting lines and odds created that way, so the site ALWAYS makes money no matter what? I think that's how it works, no? The first rule of gambling is that you never bet against the house and they house ALWAYS, and I do mean ALWAYS makes money. If there is any chance they will take even a dollar loss, they will stop all activity related to it immediately.
I'm still reading about betting lines etc so i get a better picture but I'm pretty sure it boils down to this, If we're losing money void the bet. What other motivation do they have?
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On April 15 2015 23:05 sharkie wrote:
Since the games turned out to be normal I would say this was a false alarm
People crave drama. And people don't think before they start this kind of stuff. Why would soulkey match-fix, he's already made 100k plus from SC2 and he stands to make nothing from this. And I will fucking fight anyone to the death who accuses Creator of colluding in matchfixing. You could hold a gun to his head and tell him to lose a game and he'd say "fuck you I'm gonna win everything because Im going to be the best."
Call common sense nativity if you want. But the court of public opinion is a court of bullshit
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On April 15 2015 22:52 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:40 TBO wrote:
so rather than Soulkey being involved it imo is possible that someone knew what both Soulkey and Creator were going to do in the first map, which could give enough confidence to bet with such quotes. That could be either leaked insider information as well as trojans on their PCs or something similar. Probably below 1% chance. Its a pure denial to consider these conspiracy theories at this point.
Is it's more likely to convince a player to throw than it would be to get someone within each practice environment to share information?
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EPT
