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Pinnacle voids ByuL vs MarineKing Match - Page 48

Forum Index > SC2 General
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maGicc
Profile Joined March 2015
Finland134 Posts
March 26 2015 20:00 GMT
#941
I could argue that knowing that Byul is going to proxy match MKP instead of playing his normal style would actually bring odds in a favour of MKP anyway.
ZenithM
Profile Joined February 2011
France15952 Posts
March 26 2015 20:35 GMT
#942
On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:
On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:
On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:
On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:

And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know...
Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations.


So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing?

That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed.

Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible.

And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them.

So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened?


The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed.


This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable.


Exactly.

And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts.

But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts.

And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't.

Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand...
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
March 26 2015 20:35 GMT
#943
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.
Blargh
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2103 Posts
March 26 2015 21:04 GMT
#944
On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:
On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:
On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:
On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:
On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:

And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know...
Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations.


So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing?

That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed.

Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible.

And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them.

So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened?


The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed.


This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable.


Exactly.

And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts.

But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts.

And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't.

Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand...

Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game.
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-26 21:15:54
March 26 2015 21:14 GMT
#945
Personally unless a solid defence is released for mkp I'm going to assume he's guilty based on the circumstantial evidence we have, even if there is no investigation or punishment
skatblast
Profile Joined September 2011
United States784 Posts
March 26 2015 21:46 GMT
#946
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place
maGicc
Profile Joined March 2015
Finland134 Posts
March 26 2015 21:47 GMT
#947
At the moment the best we have so far is the upcoming statement from the MVP team.

Also i really would really like to hear the translations from korean forums that Wolf promised to deliver sometime soon.
Caihead
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada8550 Posts
March 26 2015 22:44 GMT
#948
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world. If anything it breeds opportunists who believe they would rather leave their wealth and social worth in the hands of others than themselves, which is antithesis to existentialism and pretty much the central philosophical necessity of free will.
"If you're not living in the US or are a US Citizen, please do not tell us how to vote or how you want our country to be governed." - Serpest, American Hero
KingAlphard
Profile Blog Joined August 2012
Italy1705 Posts
March 26 2015 23:00 GMT
#949
On March 27 2015 07:44 Caihead wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world. If anything it breeds opportunists who believe they would rather leave their wealth and social worth in the hands of others than themselves, which is antithesis to existentialism and pretty much the central philosophical necessity of free will.


Free will is being able to decide whether you want to bet or not, making sports betting illegal is against freedom if anything.
UberNuB
Profile Joined December 2010
United States365 Posts
March 26 2015 23:21 GMT
#950
On March 27 2015 08:00 KingAlphard wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 07:44 Caihead wrote:
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world. If anything it breeds opportunists who believe they would rather leave their wealth and social worth in the hands of others than themselves, which is antithesis to existentialism and pretty much the central philosophical necessity of free will.


Free will is being able to decide whether you want to bet or not, making sports betting illegal is against freedom if anything.


While we're at it -- not allowing a player to throw a match for money is also against freedom.

Yay, playing devil's advocate is fun!
the absence of evidence, is not the evidence of absence.
hypercube
Profile Joined April 2010
Hungary2735 Posts
March 26 2015 23:50 GMT
#951
On March 27 2015 07:44 Caihead wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world.


Well, I hope you do now and we can move on to better solutions.
"Sending people in rockets to other planets is a waste of money better spent on sending rockets into people on this planet."
Caihead
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada8550 Posts
March 27 2015 01:14 GMT
#952
On March 27 2015 08:00 KingAlphard wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 07:44 Caihead wrote:
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world. If anything it breeds opportunists who believe they would rather leave their wealth and social worth in the hands of others than themselves, which is antithesis to existentialism and pretty much the central philosophical necessity of free will.


Free will is being able to decide whether you want to bet or not, making sports betting illegal is against freedom if anything.


That's just about the most systematically wrong assumption about freedom or civil liberty championed by western liberalism. Freedom is about the extent of constraint a society should or could impose on an individual. Those who want themselves to be free to do anything they want at the expense of others, who want to exercise their will absolutely with no restrictions, are the real tyrants.
"If you're not living in the US or are a US Citizen, please do not tell us how to vote or how you want our country to be governed." - Serpest, American Hero
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-27 01:32:25
March 27 2015 01:21 GMT
#953
It seems the betters are reckless in that they will do things that risk throwing a site's fraud alerts. Some have asked why the betters, if in fact this match was fixed, would be so brazen. The answer, I'll bet, is that there's no consequence for them. Also Pinnacle is only a small slice of the pie, so the risk is worth it for them to take, because they have money already coming in from other places too.

To me, this seals the question of whether match fixing is occurring. The evidence here is too great. MarineKing should be ashamed of himself, and should be banned for years from competition (not permanently IMO).

Very interested to see statements from MVP, KeSPA, Blizzard, etc. Has any party actually made any kind of statement on match fixing yet? Other than smaller tournament organizers and those affected directly. Are the major parties involved in SC2 really just going to ignore this? If so, then SC2 competition in Korea truly is a farce. Now THAT is an elephant in the room .

The more I witness internet criminals exploit every activity conceivable on the internet, the more I think that even giving them avenues to commit crime is not worth it. The potential for crime and exploitation in any conceivable online activity means that activities involving lots of money just shouldn't be allowed. Bitcoin is an inevitable disaster, as we've already seen ample evidence of, sports betting is insidious for smaller viewership markets, etc.

Grizvok
Profile Joined August 2014
United States711 Posts
March 27 2015 01:29 GMT
#954
On March 27 2015 10:14 Caihead wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 08:00 KingAlphard wrote:
On March 27 2015 07:44 Caihead wrote:
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world. If anything it breeds opportunists who believe they would rather leave their wealth and social worth in the hands of others than themselves, which is antithesis to existentialism and pretty much the central philosophical necessity of free will.


Free will is being able to decide whether you want to bet or not, making sports betting illegal is against freedom if anything.


That's just about the most systematically wrong assumption about freedom or civil liberty championed by western liberalism. Freedom is about the extent of constraint a society should or could impose on an individual. Those who want themselves to be free to do anything they want at the expense of others, who want to exercise their will absolutely with no restrictions, are the real tyrants.


Haha well said.
DuckloadBlackra
Profile Joined July 2011
225 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-27 01:47:03
March 27 2015 01:46 GMT
#955
On March 27 2015 08:21 UberNuB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 08:00 KingAlphard wrote:
On March 27 2015 07:44 Caihead wrote:
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world. If anything it breeds opportunists who believe they would rather leave their wealth and social worth in the hands of others than themselves, which is antithesis to existentialism and pretty much the central philosophical necessity of free will.


Free will is being able to decide whether you want to bet or not, making sports betting illegal is against freedom if anything.


While we're at it -- not allowing a player to throw a match for money is also against freedom.

Yay, playing devil's advocate is fun!



What a logical fallacy... sports betting doesn't hurt anyone. Throwing matches for money DOES. There is no comparison here, this is a really dumb thing to say.
Blargh
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2103 Posts
March 27 2015 01:58 GMT
#956
On March 27 2015 10:46 DuckloadBlackra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 08:21 UberNuB wrote:
On March 27 2015 08:00 KingAlphard wrote:
On March 27 2015 07:44 Caihead wrote:
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world. If anything it breeds opportunists who believe they would rather leave their wealth and social worth in the hands of others than themselves, which is antithesis to existentialism and pretty much the central philosophical necessity of free will.


Free will is being able to decide whether you want to bet or not, making sports betting illegal is against freedom if anything.


While we're at it -- not allowing a player to throw a match for money is also against freedom.

Yay, playing devil's advocate is fun!



What a logical fallacy... sports betting doesn't hurt anyone. Throwing matches for money DOES. There is no comparison here, this is a really dumb thing to say.

This type of argument is similar to saying "Making/selling drugs doesn't hurt anyone. Only using them does."

But regardless, I think this discussion (regarding whether or not betting should be allowed) should be for another time and another place, other than this thread. Additionally, it's pointless discussing it, because 1) betting will never be completely banned and 2) even if it was completely illegal in every part of the world (lol), underground betting would still go on. For all we know, a majority of it is being done illegally anyway.
RenSC2
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States1083 Posts
March 27 2015 01:58 GMT
#957
Let's look at the situation from the two sides.

1) Assume MK is not match-fixing.
We'd need to explain the betting. On the betting, we could say that there are significant MK anti-fans (or Byul fans) who know little about betting and odds, but are on Pinnacle anyways, and bet a large amount of money on Byul right before the match. With the odd betting coming late and large, aware bettors may have assumed that something was wrong and also put money on MK to profit from what they assumed was a fixed match. The combination of foolish money and assumed match-fixing pushed the betting into absurd territories. Pretty farfetched, but remotely plausible.

Alternatively, if someone spread a believable rumor that the match would be fixed, it could cause a stampede to be on the rumored winning side while everyone shies away from the rumored losing side. This would result in a very easy shift in the betting odds where the rumor spreader could take the other side and make some big money if MK happened to win a fair game that day. It would depend on where exactly the rumor came from, but it could be plausible.

We also need to explain MKs play. He wasn't wearing glasses or contacts and his vision is bad? That's why he moved forward in his seat when he scouts the pool, so that he could see it. It would explain why he didn't notice the yellow (or red) dot on his minimap for over a minute, he couldn't see. And then from there, he made a bad MK decision to go 3-CC despite his basic scouting information that pointed to aggression. It all seems extremely farfetched.

2) Assume MK is match-fixing.

The betting line makes perfect sense, but was pushed too far. It may have been too much greed on one person's part. Or it could be some bandwagon bettors that realized something was up and jumped on or it could be that the match-fixing information was sold to too many people. Any of those possibilities seems much more likely than our non match-fixing assumption.

MK's play is also easily explained by the match-fixing assumption. He started out with a safe rax-first play. If Byul goes heavy eco, MK continues to play a safe game and then gets rolled in the mid to late game by a good player with a mass economic advantage. If he scouts aggression, then MK goes into a 3-CC build (as he did) and makes it look like he was caught off guard. He scouts the minimal possible except to know if his opponent is going aggro or eco so that he doesn't blind counter his opponent.

Instead, he accidentally scouted the proxy spine. There's no way a pro doesn't notice that spine on his minimap for over a minute. So he's stuck with a hard choice. He can pretend like he doesn't see it, go 3-CC and lose or start to sloppily defend it and risk Byul quitting. He pretends to be blind, goes forward with 3-CC and loses. It all fits perfectly.

This isn't a simple misclick which happens all the time. This isn't a misread of the opposing strategy and blind following of a build, which can happen, and MK seems to be especially prone to. This is a blatant situation with almost zero grey area where MK had to see what was happening outside his base and chose to do exactly the wrong thing about it to ensure that his opponent wins.

Is there an extremely farfetched alternative? Yes. But match-fixing seems like the much more likely cause of what we saw.

We are not the judge, jury, or executioner. However, pressure needs to be put on KESPA and the teams to ensure that this gets investigated. If we apply no pressure, then it's not in KESPA or the team's interest to make this issue public. So, that's what we're starting to do here. We're making the issue public and forcing an investigation so that hopefully we can clean up this game before everyone gets sick of the corruption and walks away.
Playing better than standard requires deviation. This divergence usually results in sub-standard play.
DuckloadBlackra
Profile Joined July 2011
225 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-27 02:07:18
March 27 2015 02:05 GMT
#958
On March 27 2015 10:58 Blargh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 10:46 DuckloadBlackra wrote:
On March 27 2015 08:21 UberNuB wrote:
On March 27 2015 08:00 KingAlphard wrote:
On March 27 2015 07:44 Caihead wrote:
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world. If anything it breeds opportunists who believe they would rather leave their wealth and social worth in the hands of others than themselves, which is antithesis to existentialism and pretty much the central philosophical necessity of free will.


Free will is being able to decide whether you want to bet or not, making sports betting illegal is against freedom if anything.


While we're at it -- not allowing a player to throw a match for money is also against freedom.

Yay, playing devil's advocate is fun!



What a logical fallacy... sports betting doesn't hurt anyone. Throwing matches for money DOES. There is no comparison here, this is a really dumb thing to say.

This type of argument is similar to saying "Making/selling drugs doesn't hurt anyone. Only using them does."

But regardless, I think this discussion (regarding whether or not betting should be allowed) should be for another time and another place, other than this thread. Additionally, it's pointless discussing it, because 1) betting will never be completely banned and 2) even if it was completely illegal in every part of the world (lol), underground betting would still go on. For all we know, a majority of it is being done illegally anyway.


Bullshit. Is giving students tests to take wrong because some people cheat on them? No? Likewise giving people betting rights isn't wrong just because some people cheat the system.

Most illegal drugs have harmful side effects, so it is wrong to give them out. You're trying to compare apples and oranges here when there's only vague similarities.
darkscream
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada2310 Posts
March 27 2015 02:13 GMT
#959
On March 27 2015 10:46 DuckloadBlackra wrote:
What a logical fallacy... sports betting doesn't hurt anyone. Throwing matches for money DOES. There is no comparison here, this is a really dumb thing to say.


someone gets shot BAN ALL GUNS

someone overdoses BAN ALL DRUGS

someone commits suicide citing bullying BAN ALL CRITICISM

someone redistributes copyrighted content BAN ALL INTERNET ANONYMITY

its pretty much what people do these days
Blargh
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2103 Posts
March 27 2015 02:19 GMT
#960
On March 27 2015 11:05 DuckloadBlackra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2015 10:58 Blargh wrote:
On March 27 2015 10:46 DuckloadBlackra wrote:
On March 27 2015 08:21 UberNuB wrote:
On March 27 2015 08:00 KingAlphard wrote:
On March 27 2015 07:44 Caihead wrote:
On March 27 2015 06:46 skatblast wrote:
On March 27 2015 05:35 Doodsmack wrote:
If sports betting were to go away, the world would be a better place.


The world would be a much more boring place


I didn't realize redistributing social wealth based on the future outcomes of events we are supposedly already sentimentally invested in or find conscious reaffirmation from brings a net increase in excitement in the world. If anything it breeds opportunists who believe they would rather leave their wealth and social worth in the hands of others than themselves, which is antithesis to existentialism and pretty much the central philosophical necessity of free will.


Free will is being able to decide whether you want to bet or not, making sports betting illegal is against freedom if anything.


While we're at it -- not allowing a player to throw a match for money is also against freedom.

Yay, playing devil's advocate is fun!



What a logical fallacy... sports betting doesn't hurt anyone. Throwing matches for money DOES. There is no comparison here, this is a really dumb thing to say.

This type of argument is similar to saying "Making/selling drugs doesn't hurt anyone. Only using them does."

But regardless, I think this discussion (regarding whether or not betting should be allowed) should be for another time and another place, other than this thread. Additionally, it's pointless discussing it, because 1) betting will never be completely banned and 2) even if it was completely illegal in every part of the world (lol), underground betting would still go on. For all we know, a majority of it is being done illegally anyway.


Bullshit. Is giving students tests to take wrong because some people cheat on them? No? Likewise giving people betting rights isn't wrong just because some people cheat the system.

Most illegal drugs have harmful side effects, so it is wrong to give them out. You're trying to compare apples and oranges here when there's only vague similarities.

No... I was just saying that sports betting hurts people because of the consequences that go with it. Allowing X makes Y (something bad) possible. It's a valid argument, but it really depends on how bad or big of a problem Y is. But this discussion is becoming worse at an astonishing rate, so I shall leave it here.
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