|
On March 27 2015 10:21 Doodsmack wrote:
It seems the betters are reckless in that they will do things that risk throwing a site's fraud alerts. Some have asked why the betters, if in fact this match was fixed, would be so brazen. The answer, I'll bet, is that there's no consequence for them. Also Pinnacle is only a small slice of the pie, so the risk is worth it for them to take, because they have money already coming in from other places too.
My guess is that information is simply leaking out. E.g. if you know these shady illegal betting sites and you see strange line movements there's a huge incentive to try to make a last minute bet on Pinnacle and try to get on in the action. I bet the people who are responsible for these line movements are not the original match fixers, just people further down the totem pole who are the last to get their hands on the privileged information.
|
The only thing I don´t understand about this is the behaviour of the bettors. Why do they submit all their bets so late? I mean if they put half of their money on ByuL a day before the match starts, the line gets pushed. So people might actualy start betting on MK, because you will get a lot of money if he wins. That would lead to the line getting back to a "normal" point. After this they spend the rest of their money on ByuL and they win more and the line might not look as suspcious/obvious.
Or am I getting something wrong?
|
On March 27 2015 06:04 Blargh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar.  Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand... Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game.
No worries, I also think he's guilty so that's that, but I speak for other fans, who imo have the right to still believe until the truth comes out. And what the hell is up with:
And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't.
Like, yeah, let me judge random posters based on what they say about a nerdy kid match fixing a not-so-popular video game match.
|
XPA: money was consistently bet on Byul from the starting line of 1.73, which is normal since at that price the correct bet value wise is Marineking. It was at something like 1.50 a few minutes before the match which is close to what most educated bettors thought the true line was when suddenly all of the major money came in to move it to 1.09. On this match, judging by the line movement, more money was bet in the final couple minutes than several days combined beforehand by a very substantial and unusual margin.
One of the reasons the major money comes in late is Pinnacle's business model. The maximum bet starts at $100 when lines open then as more money comes in on both sides they gradually increase the betting limits to $200 then $500 then $1k and sometimes higher because their risk is limited as they have enough money on both sides and the line has been sharpened by their dynamic model to lines accurately reflecting the market's view of win percentages.
Because of this, the players who want to bet a lot of money can do it in a smaller number of actual bets (and therefore move the line less and get a better average price on their bets) the later they do it. Rather than betting $100 20 times, they could bet $1k two times, or similar. In this case maybe they made 20 max bets on Byul rather than making 200 which would have set off Pinnacle's alarms even more.
Pinnacle also flags winning bettors accounts (mine included) the adjust the dynamic betting line further than losing bettors accounts do per bet. A substantially losing account will barely move the line at all even with large bets while a substantial winning account may move it a lot with even smaller bets. A bet I make personally from my Pinnacle account on a proleague match will probably move the line twice as far as a new accounts bet for the same amount of money because I have an extensive history as a winning bettor on Starcraft 2 there.
|
This would all be explained by two things:
1) Marineking saw the spine and chose not to alert buyl, and thought he had several minutes more time to react than he actually had.
2) The illegal betting information was false, and marineking was either never approached or did not accept to throw.
I choose to believe...
|
On March 27 2015 12:05 cheekymonkey wrote:
This would all be explained by two things:
1) Marineking saw the spine and chose not to alert buyl, and thought he had several minutes more time to react than he actually had.
2) The illegal betting information was false, and marineking was either never approached or did not accept to throw.
I choose to believe...
Your point number 1 is idiotic at best. He sees a proxy hatchery and seriously thinks he can throw down an early third command center and be fine? A freaking platinum player wouldn't do that.
|
On March 27 2015 12:16 Grizvok wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 12:05 cheekymonkey wrote:
This would all be explained by two things:
1) Marineking saw the spine and chose not to alert buyl, and thought he had several minutes more time to react than he actually had.
2) The illegal betting information was false, and marineking was either never approached or did not accept to throw.
I choose to believe... Your point number 1 is idiotic at best. He sees a proxy hatchery and seriously thinks he can throw down an early third command center and be fine? A freaking platinum player wouldn't do that.
This is not about the command center. Of course it's grasping, but building additional barracks, a factory or a starport at this point would change nothing. He could and probably should have built a bunker, but reapers and hellions are better on the move. If he didn't realize there was going to be more than 1 spine, or that byul wouldnt be able to move it near his buildings, and he assumed that there was mainly mass ling to deal with only, AND assuming he massively underestimated the timing of the attack (supported by the assumption of 1 spine only) his choices are not necessarily entirely absurd.
|
On March 27 2015 06:04 Blargh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand... Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game.
When you know someone for a long time, you don`t just throw them under the bus. You give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them to explain themselves.
Who here is an expert at reading Korean facial expressions? Nobody
You can bold and say it's close to certainty all you want. I'll take MKP's word over betting irregularities any day.
|
On March 27 2015 13:11 TRaFFiC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 06:04 Blargh wrote:On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand... Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game. When you know someone for a long time, you don`t just throw them under the bus. You give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them to explain themselves.
In what capacity have you known MarineKing for a long time?
|
On March 27 2015 13:29 pure.Wasted wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 13:11 TRaFFiC wrote:On March 27 2015 06:04 Blargh wrote:On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand... Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game. When you know someone for a long time, you don`t just throw them under the bus. You give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them to explain themselves. In what capacity have you known MarineKing for a long time?
I think he's referring to the quote "Every Single Person around him" not himself personally
|
On March 27 2015 13:11 TRaFFiC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 06:04 Blargh wrote:On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand... Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game. When you know someone for a long time, you don`t just throw them under the bus. You give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them to explain themselves. Who here is an expert at reading Korean facial expressions? Nobody You can bold and say it's close to certainty all you want. I'll take MKP's word over betting irregularities any day.
Someone knew ahead of time that MarineKing would lose. Even if MarineKing has a perfectly good explanation for the peculiar manner in which the game was lost, that won't change.
|
On March 27 2015 13:34 showstealer1829 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 13:29 pure.Wasted wrote:On March 27 2015 13:11 TRaFFiC wrote:On March 27 2015 06:04 Blargh wrote:On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand... Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game. When you know someone for a long time, you don`t just throw them under the bus. You give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them to explain themselves. In what capacity have you known MarineKing for a long time? I think he's referring to the quote "Every Single Person around him" not himself personally
"I'll take MKP's word over betting irregularities any day."
...would suggest against your interpretation. I'll wait for his answer.
|
MKP already said something in Korean on his facebook about it
|
On March 27 2015 13:37 hangarninetysix wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 13:11 TRaFFiC wrote:On March 27 2015 06:04 Blargh wrote:On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand... Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game. When you know someone for a long time, you don`t just throw them under the bus. You give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them to explain themselves. Who here is an expert at reading Korean facial expressions? Nobody You can bold and say it's close to certainty all you want. I'll take MKP's word over betting irregularities any day. Someone knew ahead of time that MarineKing would lose. Even if MarineKing has a perfectly good explanation for the peculiar manner in which the game was lost, that won't change.
To be fair though, the way MK has been playing in PL lately knowing he'd lose isn't that hard 
|
On March 27 2015 13:11 TRaFFiC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 06:04 Blargh wrote:On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand... Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game. When you know someone for a long time, you don`t just throw them under the bus. You give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them to explain themselves. Who here is an expert at reading Korean facial expressions? Nobody You can be bold and say it's close to certainty all you want. I'll take MKP's word over betting irregularities any day.
It's not just betting patterns... It's also the fact that the game looked like one of the most derpy games ever. No pro player would ever respond the way he did. Even if the player up there was my best friend, I'd still think he threw that game. You don't need to publicly say that he threw the game to think that he did.
Plus, if he threw a game, he wouldn't ever say that he did. So what value is his word?
While I don't think there's enough evidence to actually do anything to him (legally or whatever), I still believe the current evidence against him is very strong, and trumps his word (what he said on FB).
|
On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand...
I ride my high horse all day. Born that way.
|
According to Reddit, this is MKP's quote:
"Gambler trash couldn't possibly know... What the "pro" in "progamer" means...
Most of us had to go against disapproval from our parents since we were young, and we earned the title of Progamer because we wanted it that much and worked that hard for it. It's our pride in that title that lets us live through repetitive and hard lives.
People like you who don't have any dreams and pass through life like water -- who come to know of us through illegal betting -- you don't have any right to gossip about us or insult us.
For a single game, waking and sleeping, we wrack our brains like crazy, planning and discussing with our teammates -- that's what you need to win a precious victory. Losers like you wouldn't know that for your entire lives. It's pathetic how you say players who lose are fixing matches. Because you guys will never know what it feels like, that heart-pounding satisfaction when you win."
It's not a bad statement at all if in fact he's lying. It certainly sounds heartfelt. I'm not sure what to make of it, but he would need to address the game in question in order to persuade me.
|
On March 25 2015 04:47 c0ldfusion wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 04:39 Hider wrote:On March 25 2015 04:28 Jono7272 wrote:
Looks pretty bad this time, but surely if MKP was going to throw he's smart enough to do it in a better way than that..? I guess pressure would affect that though.
Byul is also the better player, MKP would have most likely lost even if it wasn't such a weird game. He didn't scout it intentionally though. When the CC got started, the Reaper was pushed down so it scouted the Spine. Unlucky for Marineking as that probably destroyed his career. And I do agree that if he was smart, he probably would still have reacted and send his Reapers down to attack it (because you can't really fake it), but I think most will agree that Marineking has never been the most logical player, and to be fair to him, he had to make this decision pretty quickly. Damn that actually makes a lot of sense. It was pretty planned and MKP had to decide whether to continue with the plan after accidentally scouting the proxy.
It might have been planned by both players. MKP seemed to know what was coming and tried keeping his reapers from scouting.
|
On March 27 2015 13:56 Dodgin wrote:
MKP already said something in Korean on his facebook about it
He didn't actually make a useful statement, just a tantrum basically telling the bettors to gtfo, and claiming it's because people lost money betting on him (in reality the vast majority of money wagered was on Byul)
If he actually wanted to talk through his thought process at each moment of the game and released the replay that would be something worth looking at. If he match fixed though which is likely he needs time to rehearse and get his story straight if he's going to deny it.
On March 27 2015 13:59 showstealer1829 wrote:To be fair though, the way MK has been playing in PL lately knowing he'd lose isn't that hard
That isn't how betting works, everyone knew Byul was the favourite and wins more than half the time. The odds showed that even before all of the money was bet on Byul. What happened is that so much money was bet on Byul that the odds were implausible for anyone who sports bets, even the worst bettor, to continue to bet at that price.
If you pick any two proleague players, 90% of the posters on this forum could tell you who the betting favourite would be, but a small minority could pinpoint the actual win percentages with a high degree of accuracy.
For example (a hypothetical scenario), let's use JinAir Greenwings vs Samsung Galaxy as an example.
The matchups are
Maru vs Solar
sOs vs Reality
Rogue vs Dear
Cure vs Shine
ACE MATCH
Most people, simply looking at that matchup, would tell you that JinAir are favourites. Maru and Cure have drawn Zerg opponents and are good at the matchup, Reality's drawn his worst matchup and Dear might be a small favourite over Rogue. In an assumed ace match, Maru might be a small favourite over Dear. For the sake of this post we'll assume every match is played on a neutral map with neither race favoured.
On the surface you could say the correct play is to bet on Jin Air. But that's not the whole story, the odds matter. If you were getting even money, yes, you would bet on Jin Air probably in this matchup with these odds. If these teams met 10 times, how many times would Jin Air win? It probably wouldn't be 10, some of their players would have an off day, or get cheesed, or Samsung's players could play really well. Certainly, they'd be favoured to win more than 5 times. Maybe 7 or 8 at most on average?
So what if the odds change and are no longer even money? Samsung are now paying 3.00. That would require they win an average of 3.33 times per 10 matches for a bet on Samsung to break even. Better, but not quite worth it.
But then more bets are made and now Samsung are paying 4.00 to win. This means they only need to win an average of 2.5 out of 10 matches for a bet to break even... starting to seem more attractive to bet on Samsung now, isn't it?
Then more bets are made. Samsung are now paying 10.00 to win. If you bet $100 on Samsung ten times at this price over ten seperate matches... sure, they'll lose more than half the time. But you're going to show profit in the long run.
In total, you're risking $1000, over ten seperate hypothetical times this match up occurs.
If Jin Air win 100% of the time and go 10-0, you lose $1000
If Jin Air win 90% of the time and win 9-1, you win win $900 profit to get $1000 back once, and lose $100 9 times to break even.
If Jin Air win 80% of the time and win 8 matches and Samsung win 2, you get $1000 back twice and lose $100 8 times for a profit of $1200
If Jin Air win 60% of the time and win 6 matches and Samsung win 4, you get $1000 back four times and lose $100 6 times for a profit of... $3400. And that's with JinAir still winning a majority of the time that these two teams play!
Even Prime, arguably the worst team in Proleague, won 2 matches last round out of 7. Upsets happen. You have to factor those possibilities in when you bet.
Byul was an 11-1 favourite and Marineking was an 8-1 underdog when the betting lines closed. If they played 11 times in a row with these betting prices, and Byul won 9-2, the correct and profitable bet STILL would have been on Marineking. With results of 10-1 to Byul, you would have shown a small loss betting on either player and the odds would be 'accurate' in that only the sports book wins.
Would you bet on CJ Hero or Innovation to beat any Proleague player 10-1 or more in a hypothetical best of 19 series at even money? No, because nobody is that big of a favourite over any other proleague player. Even a player like Terror, Departure or Keen would be a favourite to get at least two maps in a best of 19 series.
I filtered some of the elite players results to show ONLY matches vs Foreigners over the last 5 tournaments. If you want to check the data for yourself it is on aligulac. I added an extra couple for Maru and Life and sOs because a few of their tournaments only had one match.
CJ Hero's is 24-7 in maps vs foreigners over his last 5 tournaments
Innovation is 16-6 in maps vs foreigners over his last 5 tournaments
Maru is 18-5 in maps vs foreigners over his last 7 tournaments
Life is 19-3 in maps vs foreigners over his last 6 tournaments
Byul is 21-3 in maps vs foreigners over his last 5 tournaments
sOs is 18-7 in maps vs foreigners over his last 8 tournaments
Polt is 28-14 in maps vs foreigners over his last 5 tournaments
Combined, this comes to a record of 144-45 in maps for good Koreans vs foreigners recently. This makes the Korean player about a 76.1% favourite per map in a best of 1. This would equal betting odds of 5.20 for the foreigner player and 1.24 for the Korean player.
And does anyone really believe Marineking has less of a chance against Byul than sOs does against Incubus or Byul does against Kifire or herO does against Cloudy, Sleet, Ret and Petraeus? Because these are the players that we're talking about in this simulation to get the odds to 1.24 for the Korean in a bo1
It is literally impossible for a progamer to be an 11-1 favourite over a random assortment of FOREIGNER progamers in a bo1 series in the long term let alone a proleague caliber player even a lower one like Marineking.
Huk recently lost a series 5-1 to Innovation. If the odds were the same per map as Byul vs Marineking you still would have showed a large profit betting on Huk in each match even though Innovation won the series 5-1 and you would have made a substantial loss if you bet on Innovation in each match at the Byul vs Marineking prices.
I hope this explanation was helpful to some of you who don't really understand the odds side of betting
|
On March 27 2015 13:29 pure.Wasted wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 13:11 TRaFFiC wrote:On March 27 2015 06:04 Blargh wrote:On March 27 2015 05:35 ZenithM wrote:On March 27 2015 03:33 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 03:26 JoeCool wrote:On March 27 2015 03:09 Grizvok wrote:On March 27 2015 02:58 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 27 2015 02:48 Big J wrote:And now Flash says he lost to the build today because he didn't have it on the radar. Even after all the scandal around it he didn't know... Like others have already said, the game looks fishy in the context of the betting. But some of the conclusions drawn can have very simple other explanations. So you can explain it with a simpler explanation than it was match fixing? That was the whole point I was making earlier. We all have the information from the OP and the no one has any advantage in predictive power, so the explanation that makes the least assumptions (relies the most on the facts) is that the match was fixed. Otherwise you go into crazy stories (assuming) and reasoning about why MK did what he did, and why the betting lines were such. And those assumptions could just as easily be turned around, which is why at the moment, we should on the facts as much as possible. And you can't separate the betting lines from what happened, which is what you've been trying to do in this thread. They both happened and are correlated, you're taking the situation out of context when you separate them. So please, where is that simple explanation for everything that happened? The simple explanation is right here: the match was fixed. This! I'm quite surprised by the amount of people that still believe it was just "badly played". MK threw this game on purpose, this is non debatable. Exactly. And there are two arguments against. The first is that it can be explained somehow easily, but then people realize it can't be explained easily so they move to the second, which is that we shouldn't judge because we don't have all the facts. But we have enough facts to make a judgement. So they are wrong on both counts. And I'd love to see their investing decisions, because the vast majority of decisions you make in life are based on judging something without know all the facts. Some people are good at it, some people aren't. Get off your high horse. Some people just don't want their favorite player to be branded the worst stuff of eSportS (which a match-fixer is), how hard is that to understand... Shit man, if he's still your favorite player after that game, then there's something seriously wrong. None of us have 100% evidence that it was fixed. True (100%) certainty is impossible to achieve. But when the game, facial expressions, etc. are THIS absurd, you'd be a bit of a fool not to think he intentionally threw the match. Even if no clear evidence linking him directly to match fixing comes out, and he keeps continuing to play in PL, every single person around him will know that he threw that game. When you know someone for a long time, you don`t just throw them under the bus. You give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them to explain themselves. In what capacity have you known MarineKing for a long time?
I'm not trying to personally be MKP's character witness. I'm sure they are people who could do that. I'm referring to his record up to this point in terms of being cheat free. This would be his first offense. So, in my opinion, people are way too fast to pass judgment.
As for "throwing the game" I agree with MKP's sentiment. Nobody here knows what it's like to be a pro gamer on TV. Any number of things could've been on his mind which affected his performance.
Considering how much being a programmer defines MKP's life, it would be epically stupid to match fix as the punishment is being banned from KESPA. Surely, that would be career suicide.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
