On March 25 2015 16:28 magicallypuzzled wrote: first let me say that if I had to call it one way or the other i'd call this match fixing.
but I am not sure I mean we have seen Korean pros do some really stupid stuff. forgetting warp gate while four gating. I think either myungsik or paralyze forgot a forge while cannon rushing. even things you think are too basic or noticeable to be forgotten or not seen can be.
unless of course we are going to say all those were match fixing too. lets not
The difference is tens of thousands of dollars more than the usual amount bet on matches weren't bet on those players opponents in those cases.
so maybe someone or someones with a lot of money to burn felt like the odds were good that marineking would marineking I know I have been tempted to bet heavily against him.
Yes. Everyone said that last time too, and the time before that. It's possible, but the odds are so abysmally bad after a few bets anyone with the wherewithal to successfully deposit 100k+ to a sportsbetting site would know that they are making bets that yield a negative return
As I said myself I thought Byul would win I bet on him at 1.73 because the TRUE price is probably somewhere in the 1.40 to 1.65 range (I could narrow it further, but almost any educated bettor would guess it's in that range)
A massive number of massive wagers continued to be played on Byul when the price was like 1.11, which is just burning money objectively on a fair match between these two.
eh you say the person or persons that felt like putting a lot of money on the chance marineking failing like he so often does won't get a return for making the bet. you also say the match fixers would make a bunch of money on the bets which is it?
On March 25 2015 07:57 Welmu wrote: Just to give fast opinion from pro player's perspective that it's painfully obvious from MKP's in-game reactions and not noticing in this situation instantly creep and spine crawler in minimap that he is trying to lose on purpose here. Every progamer should be able to notice that instantly let alone for so long time not noticing anything and you can clearly even see from MKP's eyes that he looks spontaneously at minimap even if he tries to avoid it and only reason I could see this actually happening is that he is playing heavily drunk, which is obviously not the case.
There has been a lot of shady cases happening for quite some time in small online cups and on proleague especially as of late and I've heard about a couple of players getting offers to throw games and even though I don't want to believe it I think it's best to get everything investigated as fast as possible. There has been from what I've heard some odd line movements in other betting sites other than pinnacle too and in korea online betting is illegal, but there is illegal websites where you can appreantly even bet on game lenght where odds can go very high. Anyways match fixing must have been under investigation, but I hope this gets priorized and done with as fast as possible. On twoplus poker forums there is some discussion about line movements so people interested about this should go check that out also http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sports-betting/esport-betting-1497866/index71.html
Thank you for giving your opinion Welmu, i'm a big fan, and GL in WCS. I'm glad players like you and mYiKane have spoken out about this.
For what it's worth I heard there were huge line movements on the same suspicious matches on Bitcoin books like Nitrogensports although I heard that second hand someone who watches the line there in real time would have to confirm
(still catching up on the thread and replying to relevant posts)
1. illegal sports betting in korea is much bigger than it was during the BW scandal so there is more $ to be earned from throwing matches, pinnacle is just a small piece of the pie
2. everyone in the korean sc2 scene already knows that fixing is rampant in proleague especially among players who don't make much money and aren't good enough to dominate individual leagues (where it definitely happens sometimes as well)
3. sc2 is already suffering in korea as is, them investigating or going public trying to stop it is not only futile with the given industry dynamics, but would also likely destroy sc2 in korea
Thanks for weighing in Rekrul. If you're at the WSOP this year i'll buy you a beer (do you still play poker professionally or semi-pro?)
For those who are arguing based on "if he were to fixed the match he should have... not something as obvious as this" I have two things to say:
1. He had to make decisions right at the moment (because he probably didn't practice that much how to lose a game without raising a flag when you accidentally scouted your opponent's proxy hatch), so his decisions (given he was fixing the match) can certainly be flawed.
2. Do you have a much more likely explanation for his play, given that he was playing his best to win? If not, it becomes a question of "bad fixed match play" vs. "ridiculous defending proxy hatch play." But he certainly had more chance to practice how to win a match instead of how to lose a match, and in my eyes the "bad way to fix a match" is not remotely as bad as the "bad way to defend if you are playing to win".
TL;DR, his play might be a bad way to fix the match, but is a much worse play if he was playing to win. Adding the fact that he should know a lot better how to play for win than how to lose without being noticed, well the conclusion is somewhat onesided...
On March 25 2015 08:10 Caihead wrote: Also what's the highest ratio ever recorded on pinnacle that wasn't voided?
I guess we need SwoopAE as well
SwoopAE pls
The biggest line movement I can recall offhand was in WOL, for some reason some weaker Terran opened as an underdog to DRG when he was dominant and DRG became about a 2-1 favourite (1.5) and won as expected, that was more a case of the opening betting line being inaccurate as the closing line was closer to the true odds
I don't think they voided Bunny vs Yoda last week as well, Yoda opened at something like -150 and closed about +200 (1.5 to 3.0). The betting and map was certainly deemed suspicious by my fellow bettors at 2p2 but I was doing something else that night and didn't catch the betting or match in real time. I still haven't seen it actually, will watch it later tonight
It's not uncommon for a player to go from say 1.80 to 1.50, or 2.72 to 2.10 or something but the money is usually coming in to 'sharpen' the line meaning move it closer to the true percentage
I think that was the case here for Byul being slowly bet over several days from 1.73 to 1.50, but the 1.50 to 1.09 in 2 minutes was clearly not legitimate and is overwhelmingly suspicious as the true price is anywhere from about 1.60 to 1.40 in a best of 1 here for Byul (I can do some in detailed handicapping on the match if anyone wants, but I feel like about 1.50 for Byul 3.00 for Marineking or thereabouts is the line where i'd be happy to put my money on either side in a legitimate match)
On March 25 2015 08:08 Caihead wrote: Just wondering, how much money do you actually need to put on either side to tilt the odds to that ratio on pinnacle?
Must be at least 10k propably way more than that
It'd be in the 10k-100k range. I'd estimate wagering high 5 figs to 100kish to win lower-mid 5 figs, but only Pinnacle would have the actual answer.
I think the main problem here is that people don't understand how the betting and odds work and don't want to believe the numbers. Numbers don't lie.
If someone argues that it's too obvious to throw a match like this - MK has emotional stability of 13 years old teenage girl, it was probably his first time of throwing the match on TV. This is EXACTLY how you should expect him to react in such situation. MK scouted what's going on and had to figure out the best way how to lose the game just in few seconds, knowing that shitstorm is coming anyway, because everyone saw that he saw.
Also, the way he acted before the game... I could've doubts with San, but not with MK.
On March 25 2015 08:08 Caihead wrote: Just wondering, how much money do you actually need to put on either side to tilt the odds to that ratio on pinnacle?
Must be at least 10k propably way more than that
Wouldn't that depend heavily on the total amount wagered on a given match?
Yea I want to know what the ratio of money on mk / byul was
It would have been over 95% Byul. I don't recall a single line move in Marineking's favour at any stage from opening line to when they took the lines down, although small bets like $20 don't move the line so the tens of thousands or more coming on Byul would have overwhelmed all casual bettor money bet on Marineking anyway.
It's a call out against the people who are saying he match-fixed. There's an implicit assumption that the people who are calling him out are the people who lost betting on him.
"Gambler trash couldn't possibly know... What the "pro" in "progamer" means... Most of us had to go against disapproval from our parents since we were young, and we earned the title of Progamer because we wanted it that much and worked that hard for it. It's our pride in that title that lets us live through repetitive and hard lives. People like you who don't have any dreams and pass through life like water -- who come to know of us through illegal betting -- you don't have any right to gossip about or insult us. For a single game, waking and sleeping, we wrack our brains like crazy, planning and discussing with our teammates -- that's what you need to win a precious victory. Losers like you wouldn't know that for your entire lives. It's pathetic how you say players who lose are fixing matches. Because you guys will never know what it feels, that heart-pounding satisfaction when you win."
If it's a call out then
Hey Marineking, I bet on Byul at opening lines (can provide proof) and I still emailed Pinnacle with my suspicions. I would have won money if your loss stood and lost money if you had won.
That said I really hope you're innocent, i've been a big fan for a long time.
Innocent until proven guilty, but he looks guilty.
Just a note but Rekrul, Welmu, Kane or any other progamer who has spoken out against match fixing who has any inside info and wants to remain anonymously i'm happy to release your information for you anonymously via whatever medium you choose so you don't get backlash from your peers. Feel free to get in touch.
Going out for a while, in closing everyone is innocent until proven guilty, but match fixing is clearly going on and needs to be investigated by Kespa or the proper channels.
I'm happy to act as whistleblower if anyone wants to release information anonymously through me, my reputation on 2p2 is stellar (i've paid investors over 100k with no hassles in poker, and have a spotless record within the industry) and you will remain anonymous should you choose to do so.
Match fixing is clearly happening in esports but let's not make this a witch hunt not every match is fixed and many players are innocent but there are some that are guilty. We should apply pressure on Kespa to investigate and find which ones. That is all.
On March 25 2015 17:31 LastManProductions wrote: What I don't get is, if you were fixing a match, why would you bet a ridiculous amount of money so much so that the betting site closes the bets.
It's possible that the successive bets aren't "in on it" per se, and are just trying to get a piece of the action once they notice that the match might be fixed. If you were a gambler, you'd put money on a sure thing if you felt good enough about it. So it's possible that the bets after the initial few big ones were just other bettors trying to catch a ride.
This personnal Swoopae crusade is getting boring, he's the author of half the post in this thread.
Btw why isn't that thread moderated as the San/dark one was. Cause really the "Innocent until proven guilty, but he looks guilty" thing is kinda of disgusting.
I mean I couldn't say "Swoopae is a cool guy, until proven full of shit, but he really sound like a fat bag of horse poo?", could I?
On March 25 2015 17:31 LastManProductions wrote: What I don't get is, if you were fixing a match, why would you bet a ridiculous amount of money so much so that the betting site closes the bets.
Rumor has it there are a lot of shady illegal betting sites in Korea, which would make it fairly easy for someone to see if the lines are moving weirdly on those and then run to Pinnacle and dump all your money on it without being in the know of anything, which creates a situation like this.
On March 25 2015 17:45 Gwavajuice wrote: This personnal Swoopae crusade is getting boring, he's the author of half the post in this thread.
Btw why isn't that thread moderated as the San/dark one was. Cause really the "Innocent until proven guilty, but he looks guilty"thing is kinda of disgusting.
I mean I couldn't say "Swoopae is a cool guy, until proven full of shit, but he really sound like a fat bag of horse poo?", could I?
I wish the information available to Pinnacle was more specifically and widely known. Approximate money wagered against, betting swings, betters under investigation betting out of character. Everything I want compromises future investigations ><
On March 25 2015 16:21 Gwavajuice wrote: Hehe this has not slowed down during the night
I'll reiterate :
1 -the outcome is not surprising, Byul is arguably the best ZvT in the world along with Dark, and MK is the worst TvZ (0-6 in proleague). It's time to realize that MK is totally tilted in this match up! Nobody knowing sc2 would have bet on MK vs Byul.
2 - MK always had these kind of bad moments, we should do a thread named "embarassing MK losses" we'd all have a good laugh (his 0-3 against Symbol in Iron Squid 1 is my personnal favorite)
3 - The legendary map awarness of pros is sometimes just a legend. 10 days ago we had Maru himself humiliated by dark with Nydus right inside of his main, you forgot this ? check it out again :
Yes MK had much more time to react, but Maru is a much much better player, some on these very boards even say he's the best terran in the world, yet he does something that even a Gold leaguer would be ashamed to do. The replay itself is available, check Maru's camera if you want to laugh (or cry). Shit happens that's all.
All in all, at this point these match fixing accusation are just crap. .
I agree with 1 and 2, but your third argument is just nonsense. How can you not see there's a huge difference between Maru missing a nydus for 15 seconds while controlling a cloaked banshee and having a huge production tab:
And Marineking scv scouting late pool, then idlling his reapers even though the first one was out before the pool even finished!? He'd have ages before speed was done to use his reapers. Then missing a spinecrawler that has to attack your rocks for a complete minute sitting on your map while MK did nothing at the same time! He's not controlling his reapers, not building units and upgrades... He's just inside his base building scv's.
I mean don't get me wrong Maru should have noticed the nydus as a pro but these situations are leagues apart and not similar at all! Maru's game is just a mistake. Marineking's game nothing makes sense, nothing.
In Esport SM Naniwa and Demuslim both proxied each other on Secret Springs, their workers met in the middle and went through each other, but neither of them saw the other's worker. This is at a time in the game when absolutely nothing happens at like 1-2 minutes. So there are other examples.
EPT
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/qbbzhhw.jpg)
