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Phredxor
New Zealand15076 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:14 DuckloadBlackra wrote: This!!! All of you who are overlooking this don't seem too intelligent... If he did counter it properly ByuL might well have left the game since he had exactly nothing at home and no expansions. I imagine if you are meant to be throwing a game but end up winning it by accident, thereby costing someone thousands of dollars, shit might get ugly for you. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:12 lichter wrote: I already told Kespa about Pinnacle's willingness to cooperate, and linked them to the thread and your posts. I have no information whether or not Kespa and Pinnacle have talked about it, since they are mum on the whole thing. Unfortunately they aren't very open to discussing it with third parties. Likewise, i've messaged Kespa's official twitter account privately a couple of times with my concerns. I've never received a reply. Neither Pinnacle or Kespa owe me any explanation i'm just a random esports fan who bets on esports sometimes. They do owe the esports community a real statement though (especially Kespa, as Pinnacle have made it clear what they think is happening) Would the TL community want me to post an unsolicited PM I got on 2p2 from a person who claims to have received an offer to pay money to know the result of approximately 4 fixed SC2 matches a year? It's unsubstantiated as I know nothing about the poster who PM'd me and he could be trolling me or whatever, but i'm happy to make it public if people want that | ||
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Gwavajuice
France1810 Posts
 I'll reiterate : 1 -the outcome is not surprising, Byul is arguably the best ZvT in the world along with Dark, and MK is the worst TvZ (0-6 in proleague). It's time to realize that MK is totally tilted in this match up! Nobody knowing sc2 would have bet on MK vs Byul. 2 - MK always had these kind of bad moments, we should do a thread named "embarassing MK losses" we'd all have a good laugh (his 0-3 against Symbol in Iron Squid 1 is my personnal favorite) 3 - The legendary map awarness of pros is sometimes just a legend. 10 days ago we had Maru himself humiliated by dark with Nydus right inside of his main, you forgot this ? check it out again : Yes MK had much more time to react, but Maru is a much much better player, some on these very boards even say he's the best terran in the world, yet he does something that even a Gold leaguer would be ashamed to do. The replay itself is available, check Maru's camera if you want to laugh (or cry). Shit happens that's all. All in all, at this point these match fixing accusation are just crap. Edit : Btw I don't see where people got this idea that if he had reacted 30 seconds earlier, MK would have got an autowin, there are plenty examples outhere were proxy hatch are scouted late (i.e. after the hatch is complete and spines are started) were the terran doesn't win just because he knows (Life vs Taeja, blizzcon for example). building a tank doesn't gives you a win, it just gives you the opporutnity to stay alive... | ||
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FabledIntegral
United States9232 Posts
On March 25 2015 15:01 egernya wrote: Do you guys seriously think one would match-fix in a that obvious way? Seeing something on the minimap and pretending not seeing is the stupidest way to match-fix. Unless you are an idiot, you know that the spectators can know if you saw it or not. If MK were trying to lose on purpose, he would have reacted right, and lost with some more natural ways, such as making a bunker but with a poor micro or over reacting to the rush as how flash lost to trap in the latest IEM(like more than half of your scvs trying to reparing a full health bunker). Why would you choose the way that you will get the biggest attention? That's like one's robbing a bank in a Batman costume, riding a Batmobile. Yes. It happened in BW too. | ||
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Gwavajuice
France1810 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:19 Swoopae wrote: Likewise, i've messaged Kespa's official twitter account privately a couple of times with my concerns. I've never received a reply. Neither Pinnacle or Kespa owe me any explanation i'm just a random esports fan who bets on esports sometimes. They do owe the esports community a real statement though (especially Kespa, as Pinnacle have made it clear what they think is happening) Would the TL community want me to post an unsolicited PM I got on 2p2 from a person who claims to have received an offer to pay money to know the result of approximately 4 fixed SC2 matches a year? It's unsubstantiated as I know nothing about the poster who PM'd me and he could be trolling me or whatever, but i'm happy to make it public if people want that No please don't, as you said you have no information. Thank you for bringing up the subject, your posts about San/Dark were very informative, but don't make a personnal crusade of it, it will do nothing good for the community nor for yourself... If you have real proof on the other hand, KeSPA official would be the ones to be contacted I guess... | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 25 2015 06:40 thOr6136 wrote: people see what they want to see hopefully this doesn't ruin mkp's life if he is innocent I had money on Byul (at 1.73, as I bet the opening line not closing line). I win money if this match is NOT fixed. I'm a massive Marineking fan. This match being allegedly fixed actually cost me about $120. This is absolutely not what I wanted to see. And I agree, MKP should not be judged as guilty without a proper investigation but there is certainly enough circumstantial evidence to warrant an investigation. I'm not trying to play judge jury and executor, i'm playing prosecutor because nobody else is. MKP is innocent until proven guilty, so is San, and so were the other players whose matches were cancelled by Pinnacle (not going to name everyone as there's a good chance some of them are guilty and others innocent) The thing is, if nobody investigates we will never know, matches will continue to be fixed (which is overwhelmingly likely to be occurring right now, look at Savior SC1 scandal, CSGO scandal, matchfixers DDOSing DOTA players to try and influence outcomes and the circumstantial evidence of what's going on right now in SC2 with crazy unwarranted line movements/the player bet against making super obvious mistakes to lose) | ||
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nunez
Norway4003 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:02 lichter wrote: I could try contacting them again but I doubt I'd get a more detailed answer than last time. There's really not much TL can do about this. nonsense. tl can highlight the issue, whilst actively contributing to a shitstorm in the community. show some balls. highlight this thread, encourage posters to tweet, #blizzardmatchfixing #crookedkespa, modnotes encouraging bold statements and flaming, stop giving kespa exposure on tl, etc.. | ||
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magicallypuzzled
United States588 Posts
but I am not sure I mean we have seen Korean pros do some really stupid stuff. forgetting warp gate while four gating. I think either myungsik or paralyze forgot a forge while cannon rushing. even things you think are too basic or noticeable to be forgotten or not seen can be. unless of course we are going to say all those were match fixing too. lets not | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 25 2015 07:07 TheNewEra wrote: I'm a noob in terms to betting. Can someone explain to me why this 1:8 rates for a MK win are evidence? Shouldn't it be the other way round in these scenarios, that the player with the high chance of winning fixes his match so he( or whoever is behind this) gets more money by betting on the 'underdog'? It also draws more attention to the match if a big underdog wins. You can still win an enormous amount of money betting on favourites if you know the outcome. Also, it's cheaper to buy the player off who is expected to lose as they a) generally have less money due to being less successful and b) don't have as much to lose because they're expected to lose the match anyway and it won't look as suspicious. Marineking being an underdog was expected, but at 11-1 I would bet on any player who has been fielded in Proleague against Byul in a best of 1 for reasons described a few posts up (he would have to win 9-1 or 10-0 in EVERY best of 10 to make a bet at those odds break even) In proleague this season I think the biggest favourite in any match that actually won was TY vs Guilty (Guilty was on like an 11 series losing streak) so it's safe to assume he's a bigger underdog than Marineking who while in bad form did win a TvZ vs Leenock in Proleague a couple weeks ago. Guilty was about a 5-1 underdog. He also opened as something like a 4-1 underdog from memory and there was no massive suspicious betting steam. He also played one of the best games he's ever played. Marineking was an 11-1 underdog and lost in suspicious fashion after opening as a 1.37-1 underdog and objectively being anywhere from a 3-2 to 3-1 underdog. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:28 magicallypuzzled wrote: first let me say that if I had to call it one way or the other i'd call this match fixing. but I am not sure I mean we have seen Korean pros do some really stupid stuff. forgetting warp gate while four gating. I think either myungsik or paralyze forgot a forge while cannon rushing. even things you think are too basic or noticeable to be forgotten or not seen can be. unless of course we are going to say all those were match fixing too. lets not The difference is tens of thousands of dollars more than the usual amount bet on matches weren't bet on those players opponents in those cases. | ||
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Jacenoob
299 Posts
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lichter
1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:19 Swoopae wrote: Likewise, i've messaged Kespa's official twitter account privately a couple of times with my concerns. I've never received a reply. Neither Pinnacle or Kespa owe me any explanation i'm just a random esports fan who bets on esports sometimes. They do owe the esports community a real statement though (especially Kespa, as Pinnacle have made it clear what they think is happening) Would the TL community want me to post an unsolicited PM I got on 2p2 from a person who claims to have received an offer to pay money to know the result of approximately 4 fixed SC2 matches a year? It's unsubstantiated as I know nothing about the poster who PM'd me and he could be trolling me or whatever, but i'm happy to make it public if people want that All they are willing to say publicly is that they "will look into it" and I can't really blame them from not wanting to say more. But they really need to say something eventually. I don't think those PMs will really make a difference. If anything it will just derail people from the facts (cancelled bets) that we have, at least. Better to just focus on facts. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 25 2015 07:09 Zidane wrote: The reason the odds are that lopsided is because someone made a big bet on Byul Winning. They should have been closer prior. Not one bet. They made a large number of maximum bets. There is a maximum bet per match on most bookmakers including Pinnacle. To move the line this far it would have to look something like this (just an example) with all bets being placed in about 2 minutes. Assuming the max 'to win' bet is 1k per bet (it's usually 1k on game day, I don't recall what the max bet was for this match) (These numbers are accurate representations of the amount risked, with each bet to win 1k just for illustration purposes. The actual betting pattern would have been similar to this to move the line this far. It is just an estimate however based on my extensive experience as an esports bettor, only Pinnacle has the actual numbers that were wagered on this match, we just know that the odds slowly moved from 1.73 to about 1.53 which is close to an accurate betting line, then in a 1-2 minute period right before the match this happened) $2000 on Byul at 1.50 $2040 on Byul at 1.49 $2127 on Byul at 1.47 $2173 on Byul at 1.46 $2222 on Byul at 1.45 $2272 on Byul at 1.44 $2381 on Byul at 1.42 $2500 on Byul at 1.40 $2631 on Byul at 1.38 $2702 on Byul at 1.37 $2857 on Byul at 1.35 $2941 on Byul at 1.34 $3125 on Byul at 1.32 $3333 on Byul at 1.30 $3571 on Byul at 1.28 $3846 on Byul at 1.26 $4166 on Byul at 1.24 $4545 on Byul at 1.22 $5000 on Byul at 1.20 $5555 on Byul at 1.18 $6666 on Byul at 1.15 $7690 on Byul at 1.13 $9090 on Byul at 1.11 $10,000 on Byul at 1.10 $11,000 on Byul at 1.091 Then the odds were taken down due to the bets being deemed suspicious. Using this example (again this is an estimate, Pinnacle have the actual numbers but it would be something like this) the bettors would stand to win 25k, 1k per bet but they are risking an absolute fortune at awful prices to do it. Bettors will only bet on a player they think will win up to the point where the bet no longer yields a positive return due to probability. For example i'd bet on CJ Hero over Center at even money, or even at 1.33 or something (which is about where the price was for the actual game yesterday) but if the price was bet to 1.09, that means I could get 8.00 or more on Center, so I would bet on Center because even though he is not the favourite, he will win more than 1 in 8 best of 1s on average against Hero. | ||
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DuckloadBlackra
225 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:18 Phredxor wrote: If he did counter it properly ByuL might well have left the game since he had exactly nothing at home and no expansions. I imagine if you are meant to be throwing a game but end up winning it by accident, thereby costing someone thousands of dollars, shit might get ugly for you. There's a huge difference between doing what he did and countering it properly. If you're match fixing there's just NO WAY you would ever make it seem so obvious. It's very easy to make a much more convincing show and still ensure that you lose the game in the end. | ||
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magicallypuzzled
United States588 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:34 Swoopae wrote: The difference is tens of thousands of dollars more than the usual amount bet on matches weren't bet on those players opponents in those cases. so maybe someone or someones with a lot of money to burn felt like the odds were good that marineking would marineking I know I have been tempted to bet heavily against him. I don't see how the betting in and of it's self can prove anything. yeah I know that gets into the area of never having indisputable proof. but eh if its a case of never being able to prove it verse proving someone guilty when they are innocent i'd rather not prove anyone guilty. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:47 magicallypuzzled wrote: so maybe someone or someones with a lot of money to burn felt like the odds were good that marineking would marineking I know I have been tempted to bet heavily against him. Yes. Everyone said that last time too, and the time before that. It's possible, but the odds are so abysmally bad after a few bets anyone with the wherewithal to successfully deposit 100k+ to a sportsbetting site would know that they are making bets that yield a negative return As I said myself I thought Byul would win I bet on him at 1.73 because the TRUE price is probably somewhere in the 1.40 to 1.65 range (I could narrow it further, but almost any educated bettor would guess it's in that range) A massive number of massive wagers continued to be played on Byul when the price was like 1.11, which is just burning money objectively on a fair match between these two. | ||
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
On March 25 2015 16:14 DuckloadBlackra wrote: This!!! All of you who are overlooking this don't seem too intelligent... But Byul went for a crazy one base strat... MKP should have seen and reacted accordingly, which would have put Byul in too far a disadvantage to come back. By Byul going for such a non-standard play, he unintentionally forced MKP to react in such a way that caused this issue of match-fixing in the first place. He would have had a much easier time hiding throwing a game if it was a standard game | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 25 2015 07:35 Wuster wrote: To be fair, any investigation might be done very quietly so as not to tip people off. Since this involves gambling this may involve criminal charges too and that would definitely be done quietly as police usually don't talk about what they're doing. IIRC this is what happened with the Savi0r case, everything was dropped at once on the public. This is a strong possibility as to why we haven't heard from Kespa, but so is the possibility that Kespa is doing nothing/trying to sweep it under the rug because it looks bad | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 25 2015 07:48 EtherealDeath wrote: Of course this is happening to players on teams with likely questionable finances... would be sad if this were done to help the team stay afloat. edit - Statement made under the memory (is it true?) that Pinnacle also voided one of Prime's games entirely ahead of, which they went on to 0-3 in. As well as Yoda games. Pinnacle refused to offer odds on Prime vs Samsung this week. I emailed asking why and was told 'we have no comment but lines will not be available'. This is unusual and possibly the first time ever for a Proleague match since they started offering odds. There was suspicious line movement against Yoda in the Yoda vs Bunny match last week for what it's worth. Not as extreme as this, but Pinnacle may have decided better to be safe than sorry. Again i'm not making an accusation here just making information available as to why Pinnacle may not have offered a line on that match. Prime losing 3-0 in itself isn't suspicious as they are arguably the worst team but if Pinnacle continues to not offer wagering on Prime matches then that is very unusual. We'll find out next week. | ||
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