On March 25 2015 12:48 Rinny wrote: Going to defend MKP a bit here under assumption he is guilty. These guys drop out when they are 14, alienate their families, and get fucked over by KeSPA with slave contracts.They are like NFL players from the U.S except NFL players get to finish high school.. and they are compensated decently.
These guys are told by their coaches and sponsors their only self worth comes from winning... what do you do when you stop winning and you have nowhere to go?
well it seems that you`re quite mistaken.
first, they cannot drop out when they`re 14; secondary education is compulsory and most of players get high school diplomas,
second, E-sport`s contract system is not that diabolic as you think; we cannot say pro-gamers are "not compensated" for a salary of 4~50 grands.
On March 25 2015 14:21 Lunareste wrote: This thread reminds me so much of the Rekrul BW scandal, right down to the posters vehemently denouncing him.
I'm really, really fucking scared that this is true, and Rekrul's track record regarding this exact situation is fucking obscenely good.
I don't know whether MKP is innocent or not. On the one hand, it seems like the kind of mistake I could make. On the other hand, it seems like the kind of mistake I could make. Progamers are supposed to be better than that, but I suppose that this IS MarineKong.
Do you guys seriously think one would match-fix in a that obvious way? Seeing something on the minimap and pretending not seeing is the stupidest way to match-fix. Unless you are an idiot, you know that the spectators can know if you saw it or not. If MK were trying to lose on purpose, he would have reacted right, and lost with some more natural ways, such as making a bunker but with a poor micro or over reacting to the rush as how flash lost to trap in the latest IEM(like more than half of your scvs trying to reparing a full health bunker). Why would you choose the way that you will get the biggest attention? That's like one's robbing a bank in a Batman costume, riding a Batmobile.
I do not have the time right now, woke up and need to be at work in 15 minutes, but lets say this game was fixed. Someone should atleast take a second look at the game vs Fantasy where he got 3-0ed (dont remember what tournament? NSSL?).
I remember I was thinking during that game that it cant be possible to play so bad in TvT. I actually said "WTF? Feels like MKP is trying his best to just lose here".
Note: I am not saying anything more than that MKP must have had a really bad game that day. But if this Byul-game turns out to be match fixed, these games might aswell been - given the way they played out.
As said before, it's only suspicious in combination with the betting lines. MarineKing has been known to lose in such horrible ways before. Would not be the first time he's busted by random zerg units while building a 3rd CC even with all the scouting tools available. And I fear that even if the game hadn't looked as suspicious as it did, the betting lines would have been enough to incriminate him in some sort of match fixing scandal (like it's so often the case these days for less suspicious-looking games). Well, I'll hold off my personal judgment for now, the more I think about it the more MarineKing seems innocent to me and the sadder I am that the Korean pro-scene is so obviously corrupt :D, as paradoxical as it sounds.
Edit: Wait, come to think about it, in what way were the betting lines weird this time. Is it just the balance? Or some last-minute shift like last time? Because honestly, I think it wouldn't take me much to bet a lot of money on ByuL. Let's say I'm vaguely aware that MarineKing isn't practicing and that he's losing to any random zerg on ladder, that would prompt me to bet, if I was the mildly betting type, so the odds themselves don't sound that weird given how bad MarineKing has played recently.
On March 25 2015 15:01 egernya wrote: Do you guys seriously think one would match-fix in a that obvious way? Seeing something on the minimap and pretending not seeing is the stupidest way to match-fix. Unless you are an idiot, you know that the spectators can know if you saw it or not. If MK were trying to lose on purpose, he would have reacted right, and lost with some more natural ways, such as making a bunker but with a poor micro or over reacting to the rush as how flash lost to trap in the latest IEM(like more than half of your scvs trying to reparing a full health bunker). Why would you choose the way that you will get the biggest attention?
because what you believe to be so low probability has happened before.
On March 25 2015 13:32 ElMeanYo wrote: Guys, does it really matter if match fixing is rampant? I mean, look at pro-wrestling. Everyone knows its fake but it is still hugely popular with millions of fans.
It's all a show, you just have to use your imagination and pretend it isn't fantasy.
Except people don't bet real money on fake wrestling. Try a better analogy next time
Yes they do. You can bet on all the payper view matches. Millions are bet on wrestlmania
On March 25 2015 15:05 Glorfindel! wrote: I do not have the time right now, woke up and need to be at work in 15 minutes, but lets say this game was fixed. Someone should atleast take a second look at the game vs Fantasy where he got 3-0ed (dont remember what tournament? NSSL?).
I remember I was thinking during that game that it cant be possible to play so bad in TvT. I actually said "WTF? Feels like MKP is trying his best to just lose here".
no, marineking is garbage tier in TvT. he has one of the worst TvTs in korea
On March 25 2015 13:32 ElMeanYo wrote: Guys, does it really matter if match fixing is rampant? I mean, look at pro-wrestling. Everyone knows its fake but it is still hugely popular with millions of fans.
It's all a show, you just have to use your imagination and pretend it isn't fantasy.
Except people don't bet real money on fake wrestling. Try a better analogy next time
Yes they do. You can bet on all the payper view matches. Millions are bet on wrestlmania
People also throw billions of dollars away at any number of idiotic investments and fads, it's a bad comparison because people don't watch wrestling for competition, they watch it for drama and storylines and to see people beat the shit out of each other. I don't watch SC2 for any of those things.
I held off on creating this thread myself and making a direct accusation due to the negative reaction last time (and my Marineking fanboyism) but had to put the info out there. I did tweet the info to Kespa/TL/Pinnacle after the wager was officially cancelled as you can see in the OP.
Byul opened at -137 or 1.73. The line was taken down when he was bet into 1.09 or -1100, meaning you have to risk 1100 dollars to win 100 on a best of 1. Obviously these odds do not represent the actual chance for Marineking and Byul to win the game (which depending on your analysis, could be anywhere from -150 for Byul to about -300 for Byul to win)
I placed a wager on Byul at the opening line (for $120ish). Between opening lines a few days ago and one minute before match time, the line had settled at something like 1.53 or -190, which is close to what I would consider the 'sharp' or accurate betting line to be (Byul is in better form, and the map is slightly Z favoured, but it's best of 1, and it feels reasonable that if they played 10 times it would go something like 7-3 or 6-4 Byul on average in maps based on the players current form/abilities, which would ). 7-3 on average over 10 maps would make Byul a -233 favourite. 6-4 would make him a -150 favourite. 8-2 on average would make him a -400 favourite. 9-1 would make him a -900 favourite.
Yes, at this betting line when Pinnacle took the odds down due to suspicious bets, if this match were played as a bo10, the AVERAGE result at the closing line would be between 9-1 and 10-0 to Byul. For every time Marineking lost a bo10 8-2, Byul would have to win multiple series 10-0 for these bets on Byul to just be breakeven.
While Byul is clearly a favourite in a legitimate match between the two players (Marineking's not in the best TvT or TvZ form atm) it's not like Marineking is totally incompetent/won't win about a third to a quarter or maps when these two play a best of 1.
A few minutes before the match, the insane betting steam started. You can see what happened within a minute or two, Marineking went from being a 2-1 underdog to being over a 10-1 underdog. A very large amount of money would have to have been bet on Byul over and over at increasingly awful odds. I say this as a bettor who had a wager on Byul; and a lifetime winning bettor on Esports matches; there is no way a wager on Byul yields a positive expectation beyong him being a -400 or 1.25 favourite and that's being very generous.
The steam showed no signs of stopping even at 1.09 and then Pinnacle took the betting line down. As you can see on the twoplustwo thread where we discuss esports betting, we were all very concerned by the line movement before the result was known, and even though my bet won in this instance and I was positively affected by the potential match fixing I knew it would be cancelled, then it was due to 'bets on this match were placed in a fraudulent manner'. Pinnacle haven't elaborated I assume because they were attacked so heavily by esports fans when they made a statement, but this is code for 'the match was not played on a fair basis'
I haven't read the thread in full yet i'll do so now and comment more when I have.
On March 25 2015 15:05 Glorfindel! wrote: I do not have the time right now, woke up and need to be at work in 15 minutes, but lets say this game was fixed. Someone should atleast take a second look at the game vs Fantasy where he got 3-0ed (dont remember what tournament? NSSL?).
I remember I was thinking during that game that it cant be possible to play so bad in TvT. I actually said "WTF? Feels like MKP is trying his best to just lose here".
no, marineking is garbage tier in TvT. he has one of the worst TvTs in korea
As someone who regularly bets on matches this is accurate, Marineking has always been terrible at TvT.
Unless the betting markets are being manipulated, it is unlikely that matches are being fixed because nobody would stand to gain. Betting markets have been manipulated on a number of matches over the past few months and in all but one case the player all of the money was bet on won. I suspect the one game that the player bet on lost was the match fixers attempting to throw Pinnacle's fraud team off the trail. I don't want to go into detail naming names here but it's all on the twoplustwo thread for anyone who wants to read it.
On March 25 2015 05:14 SixStrings wrote: I just wonder how many of these we've missed so far. How long has this been going on?
I have a comprehensive list if anyone's interested along with other serious bettors from 2p2. Most of the info is in the thread there over time, but there have been I believe 4-5 wagers cancelled by Pinnacle and another 2-3 we have deemed suspicious enough to suspect the match was fixed.
It's either been going on since the Hot6 cup (I don't have the betting lines for the suspicious games in question there) or since the San vs Dark match in Proleague r1.
On March 25 2015 16:02 lichter wrote: I could try contacting them again but I doubt I'd get a more detailed answer than last time. There's really not much TL can do about this.
I've also asked them to make a statement but didn't get a reply.
I don't think they liked the hostility from the esports community last time, but they didn't handle it that well.
That said they did agree to assist Kespa with an investigation so maybe TL can put pressure on Kespa somehow to actually investigate?
On March 25 2015 05:30 ilikeredheads wrote: I think we need to see mkp's first person view of that game.
I haven't reached the end of the thread yet but this is important if it is possible. Also analysis from the player camera on whether he's checking minimap or not etc
On March 25 2015 16:02 lichter wrote: I could try contacting them again but I doubt I'd get a more detailed answer than last time. There's really not much TL can do about this.
I've also asked them to make a statement but didn't get a reply.
I don't think they liked the hostility from the esports community last time, but they didn't handle it that well.
That said they did agree to assist Kespa with an investigation so maybe TL can put pressure on Kespa somehow to actually investigate?
I already told Kespa about Pinnacle's willingness to cooperate, and linked them to the thread and your posts. I have no information whether or not Kespa and Pinnacle have talked about it, since they are mum on the whole thing. Unfortunately they aren't very open to discussing it with third parties.
On March 25 2015 15:01 egernya wrote: Do you guys seriously think one would match-fix in a that obvious way? Seeing something on the minimap and pretending not seeing is the stupidest way to match-fix. Unless you are an idiot, you know that the spectators can know if you saw it or not. If MK were trying to lose on purpose, he would have reacted right, and lost with some more natural ways, such as making a bunker but with a poor micro or over reacting to the rush as how flash lost to trap in the latest IEM(like more than half of your scvs trying to reparing a full health bunker). Why would you choose the way that you will get the biggest attention? That's like one's robbing a bank in a Batman costume, riding a Batmobile.
This!!! All of you who are overlooking this don't seem too intelligent...
On March 25 2015 06:10 boxerfred wrote: So, we have two scenarios, aye?
1. MK is guilty. He saw the spine on the minimap. Since he wants to lose (assuming Byul is not involved), he's kinda glad that Byul gives him an easy way to throw by simply ignoring the fact that he saw that. Easiest proof for that would be the first person view of the replay, MKP might've done an instinctive check.
I don't see any other way to legitimately prove that MK saw the spine. You guys can bring up more snippets, but as long as there is no rock solid proof, it's in no way (neither morally nor legally) allowed to judge and potentially ruin MK's career. In dubio pro reo.
2. MK is innocent. Given that he SCV scouted, he knew that Byul would allin him. His SCV checked the gold bases. This is the first point where it gets interesting: if MK uses the minimap to confirm that no gold base has been taken, he should see the spine. If he checks by camera (assuming he grouped the scout scv which is likely), he wouldn't check the minimap. Then, remember: many pros go in early game for apm spams. Spamming control groups, spamming camera positions is a normal thing. While doing so, one might actually not check the minimap. The third thing to check would be which colours MK used. Did he use the "friendly green, hostile red"-thing, or did he have original colours turned on? Yellow is much harder to see for the eye, while red is a signal colour.
Assuming MK really missed the spine building, I think that he thought a bust was coming. He was clearly not expecting roaches (he wouldn't have rushed hellions else) but a baneling bust, and relied on his fast hellions to hold. The fact that Byul wouldn't have been able to kill him without queens and spines supports that thought.
I even think he would've held a one base bust with 3cc and would've been miles ahead thereafter.
tl;dr
don't judge him without any proof, in dubio pro reo. two possibilities: a) guilty, b) he mistakenly took a proxy hatch he did not see for a one base baneling bust.
____
This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol.
I think from his perspective, and apparently to anyone in the betting world, this is as close to proof as it gets.
It seems like the only reason this thing hasn't been blown open is that no one seems to be investigating it.
and I think you're reading the odds wrong.
This. I can never be 100% sure short of a confession. There have been numerous games I haven't brought to TL that I think have a greater than 50% chance of being fixed due to the line movement + how the match played out. The only two I am over 90% sure of are San vs Dark and now Marineking vs Byul.
Some innocent players will always be suspected when widespread match fixing is exposed. A proper investigation would clear them. I've refrained from angry twitter rants, i'm just making information publicly available. I could list all of the players I suspect of match fixing (5-6 of them) but i'm only bringing attention to the most obvious cases as the average esports fan (myself included) wants to believe their favourite players are innocent.
EPT
