Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST)
On January 21 2015 04:40 dsousa wrote: Well, San did lose his MSC to a queen off creep.
Two things:
1. Look at the minimap. He's microing his stalkers to kill an overlord.
2. Look at his face after it happens.
Really, what is he doing from 8:04 to 8:08?
We're talking 8 seconds, at 200 apm that's a huge amount of actions to not even move your msc.
Is it better to recall instead of just move the msc?
Four seconds. Not eight. You're being overcritical. Even with 200 APM, mistakes happen. Especially for San, who's been notorious for making some of the dumbest mistakes in all of Starcraft 2.
Well the MSC was attacked for 8 seconds, but for the first 4 he was chasing the overseer.
Maybe he thought he had given the MSC a move command/Recall command? Maybe he was doing some macro? Rehotkeying stuff?
It's not like players look at EVERY SINGLE THING THEY OWN every 8 second cycle... We don't know.
Its certainly not conclusive evidence of a fix.
Does some else remember a time where a solo queen killed a MSC off creep though? Maybe its more common that I'm thinking.
Amazing how many people are still saying there is no evidence. There's tons of evidence, all circumstantial of course though.
1. Line opens some unknown amount but almost certainly nowhere near -300. Ends up being max bet likely dozens of times in Dark's favor. Someone with a Pinnacle account (I'm American) would know better than I, but clearly this is highly unusual esp considering San apparently crushed Dark in their last meeting.
2. A bettor whom I would consider sharp says it's one of the craziest lines and line movements he's ever seen.
3. San loses in part due to poor army control.
4. Most highly respected sports book in the world concludes there was possible match-fixing based on betting patterns. This book has more resources and experience investigating stuff like this than any other outfit in the world, as their livelihood as a business depends on it. They refund all wagers from the game.
I mean it would be pretty hard to have more circumstantial evidence. Not sure there's enough there to take any action against the guy, but if I were betting on these games, I would certainly steer clear of his as a precaution. As another poster said, it's doubtful Pinny will say anything more since they have a vested interest in keeping information out of the hands of potential fixers.
This quote from blah:
"You guys are forgetting that by betting on just 1 game player can theoretically earn more money than in a whole year from sc2 earnings. Just let that sink in for a bit."
Is the key factor that way too many people are simply not comprehending. When the amount the players in a sport make pales in comparison to what the can make for fixing the match, it becomes a serious and ever-present threat - this is why small markets like challenger circuit tennis and random tiny soccer league games are where this stuff happens. SC2 falls under this as well.
In conclusion, we can't know for sure if this was fixed, but people here are largely being way too naive about the situation. If you love this game as much I would guess you do from the fact you spend time on these forums, you should be vigilant and wary of stuff like this and give due diligence rather than just crying foul when someone (particularly the most respected sports book in the world!) says they see suspicious activity. Because that "not Player X, not in our game!" attitude is exactly the one in which match-fixing can thrive.
On January 21 2015 05:28 just_mo wrote: Amazing how many people are still saying there is no evidence. There's tons of evidence, all circumstantial of course though.
1. Line opens some unknown amount but almost certainly nowhere near -300. Ends up being max bet likely dozens of times in Dark's favor. Someone with a Pinnacle account (I'm American) would know better than I, but clearly this is highly unusual esp considering San apparently crushed Dark in their last meeting.
2. A bettor whom I would consider sharp says it's one of the craziest lines and line movements he's ever seen.
3. San loses in part due to poor army control.
4. Most highly respected sports book in the world concludes there was possible match-fixing based on betting patterns. This book has more resources and experience investigating stuff like this than any other outfit in the world, as their livelihood as a business depends on it. They refund all wagers from the game.
I mean it would be pretty hard to have more circumstantial evidence. Not sure there's enough there to take any action against the guy, but if I were betting on these games, I would certainly steer clear of his as a precaution. As another poster said, it's doubtful Pinny will say anything more since they have a vested interest in keeping information out of the hands of potential fixers.
This quote from blah:
"You guys are forgetting that by betting on just 1 game player can theoretically earn more money than in a whole year from sc2 earnings. Just let that sink in for a bit."
Is the key factor that way too many people are simply not comprehending. When the amount the players in a sport make pales in comparison to what the can make for fixing the match, it becomes a serious and ever-present threat - this is why small markets like challenger circuit tennis and random tiny soccer league games are where this stuff happens. SC2 falls under this as well.
In conclusion, we can't know for sure if this was fixed, but people here are largely being way too naive about the situation. If you love this game as much I would guess you do from the fact you spend time on these forums, you should be vigilant and wary of stuff like this and give due diligence rather than just crying foul when someone (particularly the most respected sports book in the world!) says they see suspicious activity. Because that "not Player X, not in our game!" attitude is exactly the one in which match-fixing can thrive.
it's not evidence. It's conjecture.
Now, could you stop trying to slander a progamer's reputation based on what you think and what has actually not been proven?
On January 21 2015 05:28 just_mo wrote: Amazing how many people are still saying there is no evidence. There's tons of evidence, all circumstantial of course though.
1. Line opens some unknown amount but almost certainly nowhere near -300. Ends up being max bet likely dozens of times in Dark's favor. Someone with a Pinnacle account (I'm American) would know better than I, but clearly this is highly unusual esp considering San apparently crushed Dark in their last meeting.
2. A bettor whom I would consider sharp says it's one of the craziest lines and line movements he's ever seen.
3. San loses in part due to poor army control.
4. Most highly respected sports book in the world concludes there was possible match-fixing based on betting patterns. This book has more resources and experience investigating stuff like this than any other outfit in the world, as their livelihood as a business depends on it. They refund all wagers from the game.
I mean it would be pretty hard to have more circumstantial evidence. Not sure there's enough there to take any action against the guy, but if I were betting on these games, I would certainly steer clear of his as a precaution. As another poster said, it's doubtful Pinny will say anything more since they have a vested interest in keeping information out of the hands of potential fixers.
This quote from blah:
"You guys are forgetting that by betting on just 1 game player can theoretically earn more money than in a whole year from sc2 earnings. Just let that sink in for a bit."
Is the key factor that way too many people are simply not comprehending. When the amount the players in a sport make pales in comparison to what the can make for fixing the match, it becomes a serious and ever-present threat - this is why small markets like challenger circuit tennis and random tiny soccer league games are where this stuff happens. SC2 falls under this as well.
In conclusion, we can't know for sure if this was fixed, but people here are largely being way too naive about the situation. If you love this game as much I would guess you do from the fact you spend time on these forums, you should be vigilant and wary of stuff like this and give due diligence rather than just crying foul when someone (particularly the most respected sports book in the world!) says they see suspicious activity. Because that "not Player X, not in our game!" attitude is exactly the one in which match-fixing can thrive.
A bunch of circumstantial evidence that proves only: odd bet placement patterns.
Most respected site in the world according to you only claims: odd bet placement patterns
San - someone who has been in the scene since the start, and who has seen a lot of success decides to take how small a cut of a small betting payout after the betting line moves so far?
It is as I have said, more likely that information related to San's condition impacted the betting line moreso than San's supposed decision to throw a match -_-
Stop slandering players without any more information.
And don't come to me with the Savior counter point related to San's prestige in SC2. Savior took a cut from a ring that manipulated games from less established players with Savior as a middle man. Not Savior losing a game he was never favoured to win to begin with one time with little evidence to make a stronger claim.
Until more direct information comes out, I do not and cannot believe in match fixing. Not at this time. Not based on a single instance of odd betting lines.
1. Look at the minimap. He's microing his stalkers to kill an overlord.
2. Look at his face after it happens.
Really, what is he doing from 8:04 to 8:08?
We're talking 8 seconds, at 200 apm that's a huge amount of actions to not even move your msc.
Is it better to recall instead of just move the msc?
Four seconds. Not eight. You're being overcritical. Even with 200 APM, mistakes happen. Especially for San, who's been notorious for making some of the dumbest mistakes in all of Starcraft 2.
On January 21 2015 05:28 just_mo wrote: In conclusion, we can't know for sure if this was fixed, but people here are largely being way too naive about the situation.
Yet your attitude actually shows (not saying you are) that you've already set your mind on what is really happening. You're on the other end of the specter, being way too accusing.
This is a discussion forum, so we can discuss issues and then form our own opinions.
Sorry if our words hurt your feels, its not personal, its just interesting. We should all be volunteering at orphanages right now, but we're not, we're talking about video games.
I think it's pretty clear that it was just a case of odd betting. Pinnacle has the right to void bets if the see suspicious activity. That does NOT however mean that the end all must be matchfixing. If they see something that doesn't look right, it's their prerogative to investigate it.
San is an honest competitor and has been since the start of the game, and the fact that people seriously consider that he actually threw a proleague match between two highly competitive, and personal teams, or that Dark or T1 or ST-Yoe or Kespa were involved in any way just because some guy who probably got screwed with his bets said so is kinda disgusting. Matchfixing is one of the most egregious things that can happen to the integrity and sanctity of a scene and to players, and I'm really shocked how many people will just turn their back on those whose passion gives life to this game.
I hope San's reputation isn't hurt too much by this and wish him good health.
Honestly don't know why this is deserving of front page TL news. Is it really newsworthy that a betting site voided bets? Because it's very far from proven that any matchfixing occurred. That should be reason enough for this not to be front page community news.
All we know is that a lot of bets were placed on Dark late and San didn't play very well. If you claim based on that that you think matchfixing occurred, then you need to learn what a leap of logic is.
That's funny, because I could very easily say that making a decision based on "circumstantial evidence" instead of seeing if there is any tangible proof could quickly lead to a huge number of false claims, misguided accusations and chasing after innocent people.
Pinnacle would not refund the bets unless they had pretty conclusive evidence. That's what people are not realizing.
I assume we know relatively little about player salaries but put yourself in the place of the players making peanuts. Someone offers you 2k to lose one random match that will be quickly forgotten about if you win the next few after that. How many of these guys are saying no to that? That's why this will always be a threat.
On January 21 2015 05:37 just_mo wrote: Pinnacle would not refund the bets unless they had pretty conclusive evidence. That's what people are not realizing.
I assume we know relatively little about player salaries but put yourself in the place of the players making peanuts. Someone offers you 2k to lose one random match that will be quickly forgotten about if you win the next few after that. How many of these guys are saying no to that? That's why this will always be a threat.
On January 21 2015 05:37 just_mo wrote: Pinnacle would not refund the bets unless they had pretty conclusive evidence. That's what people are not realizing.
I assume we know relatively little about player salaries but put yourself in the place of the players making peanuts. Someone offers you 2k to lose one random match that will be quickly forgotten about if you win the next few after that. How many of these guys are saying no to that? That's why this will always be a threat.
there's a fucking post above you with San's tournament winnings in 2014. 67 thousand American dollars. You have to be really fucking stupid to think that a player of San's caliber could matchfix
edit: also please take it off the frontpage until the thing is cleared out
Sans response seems legit, I wouldn't cast doubts on him never did. People just manipulated the bets with money and made it look dodgy, better you refund bets than be called out on dodgy goings on, even more so when esports seems to be doing them good (More bets than two mainstream sports and climbing)
On January 21 2015 05:37 just_mo wrote: Pinnacle would not refund the bets unless they had pretty conclusive evidence. That's what people are not realizing.
I assume we know relatively little about player salaries but put yourself in the place of the players making peanuts. Someone offers you 2k to lose one random match that will be quickly forgotten about if you win the next few after that. How many of these guys are saying no to that? That's why this will always be a threat.
It's not one random match; It's a team competition in which losing a match affects your chances at the playoffs. Being offerred 2k to basically give a giant fuck you to the entire team is incredibly unlikely, and if there's a player that would do that I surely think that they would not last long in this scene.
On January 21 2015 05:37 just_mo wrote: Pinnacle would not refund the bets unless they had pretty conclusive evidence. That's what people are not realizing.
I assume we know relatively little about player salaries but put yourself in the place of the players making peanuts. Someone offers you 2k to lose one random match that will be quickly forgotten about if you win the next few after that. How many of these guys are saying no to that? That's why this will always be a threat.
Yeah, I'm going to accept a bribe to throw a game that's being broadcast all around the world with some of the highest viewership in my profession, with the game's most thorough and professional governing body regulating my every move. KeSPA already had this happen to them once, the risks greatly, GREATLY outweigh the benefits, especially if it's a small percentage of what I made in winnings last year, as shown above.
EPT
