WCS Predictor 2015 - Page 28

Dingodile

4133 Posts

June 29 2015 10:52 GMT

#541

I feel the battles for being top16 is far less exciting than last year and 2 years ago.

Last season it felt like 12 players had to fight about the 13- 16th spots few weeks before blizzcon. I think this time only ~4 players in the same case.

Die4Ever

United States17601 Posts

June 29 2015 15:58 GMT

#542

WCS Predictor 2015
WCS Qualifiers Season 3

Players who would go over 0.01% Blizzcon Chances if they qualify
12.03% of the time.
ShoWTimE gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change ShoWTimE's chances
from 0.42% to 2.33%

12.35% of the time.
Happy gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Happy's chances
from 0.07% to 0.53%

12.26% of the time.
NaNiwa gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change NaNiwa's chances
from 0.06% to 0.44%

11.85% of the time.
uThermal gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change uThermal's chances
from 0.05% to 0.37%

12.13% of the time.
PtitDrogo gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change PtitDrogo's chances
from 0.04% to 0.33%
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

12.31% of the time.
Nerchio gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Nerchio's chances
from 0.04% to 0.28%

12.03% of the time.
TargA gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change TargA's chances
from 0.03% to 0.27%

12.22% of the time.
HeRoMaRinE gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change HeRoMaRinE's chances
from 0.03% to 0.25%

11.85% of the time.
Serral gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Serral's chances
from 0.03% to 0.23%

12.42% of the time.
PiG gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change PiG's chances
from 0.03% to 0.21%

11.8% of the time.
Welmu gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Welmu's chances
from 0.02% to 0.19%

13.08% of the time.
Scarlett gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Scarlett's chances
from 0.02% to 0.13%

11.83% of the time.
Zanster gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Zanster's chances
from 0.02% to 0.13%

12.39% of the time.
HuK gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change HuK's chances
from 0.01% to 0.05%

11.62% of the time.
Verdi gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Verdi's chances
from 0.01% to 0.04%

11.6% of the time.
Bly gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Bly's chances
from 0.01% to 0.03%

11.36% of the time.
Beastyqt gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Beastyqt's chances
from 0.01% to 0.03%

12.01% of the time.
KingKong gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change KingKong's chances
from 0.01% to 0.03%

12.37% of the time.
qxc gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change qxc's chances
from 0.01% to 0.03%

11.39% of the time.
Kas gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Kas's chances
from 0.01% to 0.02%

11.31% of the time.
Dayshi gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Dayshi's chances
from 0.01% to 0.02%

12.12% of the time.
puCK gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change puCK's chances
from 0.01% to 0.02%

12.39% of the time.
Bails gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Bails's chances
from 0.01% to 0.02%

11.3% of the time.
Boombox gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Boombox's chances
from 0.01% to 0.02%

Die4Ever

United States17601 Posts

June 29 2015 16:03 GMT

#543

On June 29 2015 16:34 karl1ok wrote:
Quite lucky that I won. Basically bought Classic out of pure trust and forgot about my team for a month or more xD Lets see if season 3 will be just as competetive

There's your TL+

Start of WCS Wars Season 3 in ~

Die4Ever

United States17601 Posts

June 30 2015 03:01 GMT

#544

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Season 2 Recap!
Tuesday, Jun 30 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim #2111)

WCS Wars Season 2 is now open! Starting points is now 18,000 and the base cost for a player has been increased to 2,000 to counter the increasing gap between top players and lower players.
I just added ASUS Summer with 4 players qualified, added IEM Cologne and MSI, and removed 10 Placeholder tournaments (3 of those being for the tournaments added). Down to just 7 Placeholders now.

Biggest Winners and Losers during Season 2 (Sim ID #1339 vs Sim ID #2111)
(from Tuesday, Apr 07 1:21am GMT (GMT+00:00) to Monday, Jun 29 10:51pm GMT (GMT+00:00))
Biggest Winners

Classic went up by 92.25%, going from 7.62% to 99.87%

ByuL went up by 71.87%, going from 8.99% to 80.86%

Rain went up by 55.49%, going from 44.51% to 100%

Dark went up by 32.08%, going from 36.68% to 68.76%

Rogue went up by 27.07%, going from 46.6% to 73.67%

Dream went up by 21.48%, going from 78.52% to 99.99%

Hydra went up by 19.36%, going from 80.64% to 100%
+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] +

FanTaSy went up by 17.24%, going from 25.98% to 43.21%

Lilbow went up by 15.72%, going from 0.78% to 16.5%

Jaedong went up by 12.3%, going from 0.91% to 13.21%

Zest went up by 8.88%, going from 65.78% to 74.66%

MyuNgSiK went up by 7.36%, going from 2.15% to 9.51%

Snute went up by 5.79%, going from 22.58% to 28.37%

Polt went up by 5.07%, going from 94.73% to 99.8%

sOs went up by 4.8%, going from 38.21% to 43.01%

Curious went up by 4.52%, going from 0.67% to 5.19%

Stats went up by 3.97%, going from 39.72% to 43.69%

StarDust went up by 3.5%, going from 0.08% to 3.59%

San went up by 2.71%, going from 1.45% to 4.16%

MarineLorD went up by 1.98%, going from 0.59% to 2.56%

TRUE went up by 1.75%, going from 1.15% to 2.9%

HyuN went up by 1.3%, going from 8.25% to 9.55%

Harstem went up by 0.57%, going from 0.21% to 0.78%

Petraeus went up by 0.37%, going from 0.28% to 0.65%

Ret went up by 0.18%, going from 0.06% to 0.25%

PartinG went up by 0.18%, going from 99.82% to 100%

elfi went up by 0.17%, going from 0.06% to 0.23%

GunGFuBanDa went up by 0.13%, going from 0.2% to 0.34%

Biggest Losers

Soulkey went down by 48.99%, going from 53.44% to 4.45%

ForGG went down by 43.06%, going from 59.05% to 15.98%

Bbyong went down by 41.64%, going from 47.81% to 6.16%

INnoVation went down by 38.26%, going from 70.26% to 31.99%

Trap went down by 22.85%, going from 48.68% to 25.83%

MMA went down by 20.18%, going from 21.03% to 0.85%

Dear went down by 19.67%, going from 29.85% to 10.18%
+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] +

soO went down by 18.63%, going from 24.16% to 5.53%

ShoWTimE went down by 15.17%, going from 15.59% to 0.42%

NaNiwa went down by 9.43%, going from 9.48% to 0.06%

Leenock went down by 8.55%, going from 9.91% to 1.35%

Terminator went down by 7.64%, going from 7.69% to 0.05%

Bomber went down by 7.32%, going from 8.33% to 1.01%

Solar went down by 7.29%, going from 16.61% to 9.31%

Hurricane went down by 7.06%, going from 7.34% to 0.28%

TY went down by 6.61%, going from 25.74% to 19.13%

MajOr went down by 6.43%, going from 6.87% to 0.44%

Super went down by 6.43%, going from 7.62% to 1.2%

Happy went down by 5.63%, going from 5.7% to 0.07%

viOLet went down by 4.58%, going from 5.01% to 0.42%

TargA went down by 4.58%, going from 4.61% to 0.03%

YoDa went down by 4.45%, going from 4.5% to 0.05%

Cure went down by 4.21%, going from 4.46% to 0.25%

FireCake went down by 3.67%, going from 4.88% to 1.2%

Bunny went down by 3.52%, going from 27.26% to 23.73%

GuMiho went down by 3.43%, going from 10.9% to 7.47%

Kane went down by 3.29%, going from 3.65% to 0.36%

PiG went down by 2.99%, going from 3.02% to 0.03%

Serral went down by 2.8%, going from 2.83% to 0.03%

MaNa went down by 2.79%, going from 4.45% to 1.67%

MarineKing went down by 2.74%, going from 2.75% to 0.01%

Creator went down by 2.54%, going from 2.56% to 0.02%

Flash went down by 2.39%, going from 2.84% to 0.45%

Welmu went down by 2.39%, going from 2.42% to 0.02%

MacSed went down by 2.21%, going from 2.21% to 0.01%

HuK went down by 1.81%, going from 1.81% to 0.01%

Sacsri went down by 1.67%, going from 1.96% to 0.29%

TaeJa went down by 1.59%, going from 1.6% to 0.01%

Sen went down by 1.55%, going from 1.75% to 0.19%

Losira went down by 1.41%, going from 1.42% to 0.01%

Symbol went down by 1.25%, going from 1.28% to 0.03%

Has went down by 1.13%, going from 1.23% to 0.1%

Patience went down by 0.92%, going from 1.04% to 0.12%

MorroW went down by 0.89%, going from 0.89% to 0.01%

Trust went down by 0.84%, going from 0.88% to 0.03%

uThermal went down by 0.78%, going from 0.83% to 0.05%

SuperNova went down by 0.78%, going from 0.78% to 0.01%

MC went down by 0.68%, going from 0.68% to 0.01%

Jim went down by 0.6%, going from 0.67% to 0.06%

Nerchio went down by 0.52%, going from 0.56% to 0.04%

+ Show Spoiler [Top 50 players by Blizzcon Chances] +

herO (CJ Entus) is at 100%, Min WCS Points: 5350, Median WCS Points: 6575
Life (KT) is at 100%, Min WCS Points: 5025, Median WCS Points: 5875
PartinG (Yoe) is at 100%, Min WCS Points: 4725, Median WCS Points: 5675
Maru (Jin Air) is at 100%, Min WCS Points: 4525, Median WCS Points: 5825
Hydra (ROOT) is at 100%, Min WCS Points: 4250, Median WCS Points: 5075
Rain (mYinsanity) is at 100%, Min WCS Points: 3900, Median WCS Points: 5075
Dream (SKT T1) is at 99.99%, Min WCS Points: 3800, Median WCS Points: 4750
Classic (SKT T1) is at 99.87%, Min WCS Points: 3025, Median WCS Points: 4500
Polt (CM Storm) is at 99.8%, Min WCS Points: 3200, Median WCS Points: 3900
ByuL (CJ Entus) is at 80.86%, Min WCS Points: 2375, Median WCS Points: 3350
Zest (KT) is at 74.66%, Min WCS Points: 2450, Median WCS Points: 3250
Rogue (Jin Air) is at 73.67%, Min WCS Points: 2300, Median WCS Points: 3225
Dark (SKT T1) is at 68.76%, Min WCS Points: 2050, Median WCS Points: 3200
Stats (KT) is at 43.69%, Min WCS Points: 2225, Median WCS Points: 2775
FanTaSy (dPix) is at 43.21%, Min WCS Points: 2150, Median WCS Points: 2775
sOs (Jin Air) is at 43.01%, Min WCS Points: 1850, Median WCS Points: 2725
INnoVation (SKT T1) is at 31.99%, Min WCS Points: 1700, Median WCS Points: 2500
Snute (Liquid) is at 28.37%, Min WCS Points: 1300, Median WCS Points: 2400
Trap (Jin Air) is at 25.83%, Min WCS Points: 1350, Median WCS Points: 2275
Bunny (Liquid) is at 23.73%, Min WCS Points: 1850, Median WCS Points: 2400
TY (KT) is at 19.13%, Min WCS Points: 1400, Median WCS Points: 2250
Lilbow (Millenium) is at 16.5%, Min WCS Points: 1475, Median WCS Points: 2075
ForGG (Millenium) is at 15.98%, Min WCS Points: 1325, Median WCS Points: 2000
Jaedong (EG) is at 13.21%, Min WCS Points: 1250, Median WCS Points: 2000
Dear (Samsung) is at 10.18%, Min WCS Points: 1200, Median WCS Points: 1875
HyuN (ROCCAT) is at 9.55%, Min WCS Points: 1125, Median WCS Points: 1800
MyuNgSiK (SBENU) is at 9.51%, Min WCS Points: 1400, Median WCS Points: 2000
Solar (Samsung) is at 9.31%, Min WCS Points: 800, Median WCS Points: 1600
GuMiho (MVP) is at 7.47%, Min WCS Points: 1550, Median WCS Points: 1925
Bbyong (CJ Entus) is at 6.16%, Min WCS Points: 1300, Median WCS Points: 1775
soO (SKT T1) is at 5.53%, Min WCS Points: 500, Median WCS Points: 1425
Curious (SBENU) is at 5.19%, Min WCS Points: 1150, Median WCS Points: 1775
Soulkey (TCM) is at 4.45%, Min WCS Points: 1825, Median WCS Points: 1975
San (Yoe) is at 4.16%, Min WCS Points: 775, Median WCS Points: 1475
StarDust is at 3.59%, Min WCS Points: 775, Median WCS Points: 1400
TRUE (dPix) is at 2.9%, Min WCS Points: 1000, Median WCS Points: 1550
MarineLorD (Millenium) is at 2.56%, Min WCS Points: 700, Median WCS Points: 1250
MaNa (Liquid) is at 1.67%, Min WCS Points: 575, Median WCS Points: 1075
TLO (Liquid) is at 1.48%, Min WCS Points: 1250, Median WCS Points: 1550
Leenock (Yoe) is at 1.35%, Min WCS Points: 1150, Median WCS Points: 1400
FireCake (PunchLine!) is at 1.2%, Min WCS Points: 850, Median WCS Points: 1200
Super (KT) is at 1.2%, Min WCS Points: 1025, Median WCS Points: 1325
Bomber (SBENU) is at 1.01%, Min WCS Points: 925, Median WCS Points: 1275
MMA (Acer) is at 0.85%, Min WCS Points: 1050, Median WCS Points: 1300
Harstem (Invasion) is at 0.78%, Min WCS Points: 775, Median WCS Points: 1125
Petraeus (mYinsanity) is at 0.65%, Min WCS Points: 450, Median WCS Points: 875
Flash (KT) is at 0.45%, Min WCS Points: 375, Median WCS Points: 850
MajOr is at 0.44%, Min WCS Points: 250, Median WCS Points: 725
ShoWTimE is at 0.42%, Min WCS Points: 950, Median WCS Points: 1325
viOLet (EnVy) is at 0.42%, Min WCS Points: 350, Median WCS Points: 725

Full Player List

Two more players have locked in for Blizzcon! Hydra from 80.64% to 100%, Rain from 44.51% to 100%. Three more players are now over 99% - Dream at 99.99%, Classic at 99.87% with 84.37% AFK Chances, and Polt at 99.8% with 97.38% AFK Chances.

+ Show Spoiler [Foreigner Hope] +

Chances of 1+ foreigners from 82.49% down to 63.98%
Chances of 2+ foreigners from 39.41% down to 15.59%
Chances of 3+ foreigners from 9.04% down to 1.08%
Chances of 4+ foreigners from 0.97% down to 0.01%

Snute 17.58% chance to be the only foreigner, 28.37% chance overall.

Bunny 14.33% chance to be the only foreigner, 23.74% chance overall.

Lilbow 9.62% chance to be the only foreigner, 16.5% chance overall.

MarineLorD 1.46% chance to be the only foreigner, 2.56% chance overall.

MaNa 0.96% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.67% chance overall.

TLO 0.8% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.48% chance overall.

FireCake 0.69% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.21% chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More Foreigner Hopes] +

Harstem 0.45% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.78% chance overall.

Petraeus 0.38% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.65% chance overall.

MajOr 0.25% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.44% chance overall.

ShoWTimE 0.22% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.42% chance overall.

Kane 0.21% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.36% chance overall.

MaSa 0.2% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.35% chance overall.

GunGFuBanDa 0.19% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.34% chance overall.

iaguz 0.17% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.29% chance overall.

Ret 0.14% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.25% chance overall.

elfi 0.13% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.23% chance overall.

Sen 0.11% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.19% chance overall.

iAsonu 0.07% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.12% chance overall.

Has 0.06% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.1% chance overall.

Happy 0.04% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.07% chance overall.

Jim 0.04% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.06% chance overall.

NaNiwa 0.03% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.06% chance overall.

uThermal 0.03% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.05% chance overall.

PtitDrogo 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.04% chance overall.

Nerchio 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.04% chance overall.

Kelazhur 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.04% chance overall.

TargA 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.03% chance overall.

HeRoMaRinE 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.03% chance overall.

Serral 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.03% chance overall.

PiG 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.03% chance overall.

Welmu 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall.

Elazer 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall.

Zanster 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall.

+ Show Spoiler [Headbands] +

Rain is the current #1 Headband holder with 0 defenses!

Classic is the current #2 Headband holder with 0 defenses!

ByuL is the current #3 Headband holder with 1 defenses!

sOs is the current #4 Headband holder with 0 defenses!

Defense History

Rain won the #1 from

ByuL at GSL Code S Season 2

Classic won the #2 from

Dream at StarLeague Season 2

Rain defended the #3 from

Curious at GSL Code S Season 2
+ Show Spoiler [More Defense History] +

ByuL defended the #1 from

sOs at GSL Code S Season 2

Rain won the #3 from

Maru at GSL Code S Season 2

sOs won the #4 from

MyuNgSiK at GSL Code S Season 2

Dream won the #2 from

herO at StarLeague Season 2

ByuL won the #1 from

herO at GSL Code S Season 2

ByuL won the #2 from

Dream at GSL Code S Season 2

herO won the #1 from

Dream at GSL Code S Season 2

MyuNgSiK won the #4 from

Bomber at GSL Code S Season 2

Bomber won the #4 from

Life at GSL Code S Season 2

Maru won the #3 from

MyuNgSiK at GSL Code S Season 2

MyuNgSiK defended the #3 from

Life at GSL Code S Season 2

Dream won the #1 from

Life at StarLeague Season 2

herO defended the #2 from

Maru at StarLeague Season 2

Dream won the #4 from

Flash at GSL Code S Season 2

herO defended the #2 from

Flash at GSL Code S Season 2

Flash won the #4 from

Dream at GSL Code S Season 2

herO defended the #2 from

Patience at GSL Code S Season 2

Dream defended the #4 from

Classic at StarLeague Season 2

Dream defended the #4 from

HyuN at StarLeague Season 2

herO defended the #2 from

Dark at KeSPA Cup 1

herO won the #2 from

ByuL at KeSPA Cup 1

ByuL won the #2 from

MyuNgSiK at KeSPA Cup 1

Life defended the #1 from

Dream at KeSPA Cup 1

ByuL won the #3 from

Maru at KeSPA Cup 1

MyuNgSiK defended the #2 from

Rogue at KeSPA Cup 1

Dream won the #4 from

Stats at KeSPA Cup 1

Stats defended the #4 from

herO at StarLeague Season 2

Stats won the #4 from

Dear at StarLeague Season 2

MyuNgSiK won the #2 from

PartinG at GSL Code S Season 2

PartinG defended the #2 from

RagnaroK at GSL Code S Season 2

Maru won the #3 from

Zest at StarLeague Season 2

Zest defended the #3 from

Leenock at StarLeague Season 2

PartinG defended the #2 from

MacSed at StarLeague Season 2

Dear won the #4 from

sOs at StarLeague Season 2

Zest defended the #3 from

Bbyong at StarLeague Season 2

PartinG defended the #2 from

FanTaSy at Copenhagen Spring

PartinG defended the #2 from

Ryung at Copenhagen Spring

PartinG defended the #2 from

elfi at Copenhagen Spring

sOs defended the #4 from

Heart at GSL Code A Season 2

PartinG defended the #2 from

SuperNova at Copenhagen Spring

PartinG defended the #2 from

TargA at Copenhagen Spring

PartinG defended the #2 from

Ryung at Copenhagen Spring

PartinG defended the #2 from

PappiJoe at Copenhagen Spring

PartinG defended the #2 from

Hydra at Gfinity Spring 1

PartinG defended the #2 from

Hydra at Gfinity Spring 1

PartinG defended the #2 from

Rain at Gfinity Spring 1

PartinG defended the #2 from

Rain at Gfinity Spring 1

PartinG defended the #2 from

Soulkey at Gfinity Spring 1

PartinG defended the #2 from

Soulkey at Gfinity Spring 1

PartinG defended the #2 from

Snute at Gfinity Spring 1

PartinG defended the #2 from

TRUE at Gfinity Spring 1

PartinG defended the #2 from

Snute at Gfinity Spring 1

PartinG defended the #2 from

TRUE at Gfinity Spring 1

Life defended the #1 from

PartinG at GSL Code S Season 1

Zest defended the #3 from

Trap at IEM Katowice

Zest won the #3 from

Bbyong at IEM Katowice

Bbyong won the #3 from

herO at IEM Katowice

herO defended the #3 from

Cure at IEM Katowice

PartinG defended the #2 from

MMA at GSL Code S Season 1

herO defended the #3 from

Rogue at GSL Code S Season 1

PartinG won the #2 from

Solar at GSL Code S Season 1

herO won the #3 from

Maru at GSL Code S Season 1

Maru won the #3 from

PartinG at GSL Code S Season 1

Solar defended the #2 from

Rogue at GSL Code S Season 1

Solar won the #2 from

Dream at GSL Code S Season 1

Dream won the #2 from

Dark at StarLeague Season 1

Dark defended the #2 from

TY at StarLeague Season 1

Life defended the #1 from

PartinG at IEM Taipei

PartinG defended the #3 from

Classic at IEM Taipei

PartinG won the #3 from

Maru at IEM Taipei

Maru won the #3 from

TRUE at IEM Taipei

Dark defended the #2 from

Dear at GSL Code S Season 1

Dark won the #2 from

MMA at GSL Code S Season 1

TRUE won the #3 from

Leenock at IEM Taipei Stage 1

Leenock defended the #3 from

jjakji at IEM Taipei Stage 1

Leenock defended the #3 from

Sacsri at IEM Taipei Stage 1

Leenock won the #3 from

Terminator at StarLeague Season 1

Terminator defended the #3 from

FanTaSy at StarLeague Season 1

Terminator won the #3 from

TaeJa at StarLeague Season 1

sOs won the #4 from

MarineKing at Hot6ix Cup

MarineKing won the #4 from

Zest at Hot6ix Cup

Zest won the #4 from

Soulkey at Hot6ix Cup

Soulkey won the #4 from

Flash at Hot6ix Cup

Flash won the #4 from

Classic at Hot6ix Cup

Life won the #1 from

MMA at Blizzcon 2014

MMA won the #2 from

Classic at Blizzcon 2014

Classic won the #4 from

herO at Blizzcon 2014

TaeJa won the #3 from

INnoVation at Blizzcon 2014

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

1.03% of the time 2500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
8.98% of the time 2650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
30.64% of the time 2800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
50.75% of the time 2900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
68.92% of the time 3000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
90.28% of the time 3175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
99.04% of the time 3400 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon

Closest to 99% went from 3425 points down to 3400 points.
Closest to 50% went from 2925 points down to 2900 points.
Closest to 1% stayed at 2500 points.

+ Show Spoiler [Races] +

Protoss went from 34.23% up to 39.79%
Terran went from 37.86% down to 28.42%
Zerg went from 27.91% up to 31.79%
Random is still at 0.01%

+ Show Spoiler [Countries] +

Korea 94.96% up from 91.75%
Norway 1.78% up from 1.7%
Denmark 1.48% down from 1.7%
France 1.27% up from 0.41%
Germany 0.14% down from 1.12%
Poland 0.11% down from 0.31%
Netherlands 0.07% from 0.07%
Canada 0.05% down from 0.39%
New Zealand 0.04% up from 0.02%

+ Show Spoiler [Teams] +

(Unfortunately WCS Predictor does not remember old teams for players.)
SKT T1 19.15% up from 13.64%
Jin Air 15.18% down from 15.44%
KT 14.95% down from 15.13%
CJ Entus 11.7% up from 9.89%
Yoe 6.6% down from 7.03%
mYinsanity 6.33% up from 3.33%
ROOT 6.29% up from 5.18%
CM Storm 6.24% up from 5.92%
Liquid 3.47% down from 3.62%
Dead Pixels 2.89% up from 1.76%

WCS Qualifiers Season 3 starts in ~
Players who would go over 0.01% Blizzcon Chances if they qualify
12.03% of the time.
ShoWTimE gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change ShoWTimE's chances
from 0.42% to 2.33%

12.35% of the time.
Happy gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Happy's chances
from 0.07% to 0.53%

12.26% of the time.
NaNiwa gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change NaNiwa's chances
from 0.06% to 0.44%

11.85% of the time.
uThermal gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change uThermal's chances
from 0.05% to 0.37%

12.13% of the time.
PtitDrogo gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change PtitDrogo's chances
from 0.04% to 0.33%
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Check out the fantasy league WCS Wars!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boucot

France15997 Posts

June 30 2015 03:45 GMT

#545

On June 29 2015 19:52 Dingodile wrote:
I feel the battles for being top16 is far less exciting than last year and 2 years ago.

Last season it felt like 12 players had to fight about the 13- 16th spots few weeks before blizzcon. I think this time only ~4 players in the same case.

There are still 4 months to go.

Die4Ever

United States17601 Posts

June 30 2015 03:58 GMT

#546

On June 30 2015 12:45 Boucot wrote:

Show nested quote +

There are still 4 months to go.

I just checked. Last year, June 28th 2015, there were 9 players above 90%
+----------+----------+
| name | chances |
+----------+----------+
| San | 100.0000 |
| HyuN | 100.0000 |
| MC | 100.0000 |
| TaeJa | 99.9996 |
| Classic | 99.9008 |
| Zest | 99.8693 |
| Polt | 99.8569 |
| Life | 92.9074 |
| soO | 90.5682 |
+----------+----------+

Right now there are also 9 players above 90%, although they're also all above 99%
+---------+----------+
| name | chances |
+---------+----------+
| Life | 100.0000 |
| PartinG | 100.0000 |
| Rain | 100.0000 |
| Maru | 100.0000 |
| Dream | 100.0000 |
| herO | 100.0000 |
| Hydra | 100.0000 |
| Classic | 99.8698 |
| Polt | 99.7996 |
+---------+----------+

So it's pretty close actually lol.

OtherWorld

France17333 Posts

July 01 2015 16:59 GMT

#547

Dammit I forgot that WCS Wars had opened again, I won't get the sweet WCS qualifiers points T_T

Die4Ever

United States17601 Posts

July 01 2015 23:17 GMT

#548

WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 3 Challenger Day 1

MyuNgSiK vs Journey in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

MyuNgSiK is at 8.41% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.19% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 14.82%, or 3.53% if they lose.

Journey is at 0.11% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.81% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.2%, or 0.01% if they lose.

soO vs Dear in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

soO is at 4.8% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.26% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.2%, or 1.5% if they lose.

Dear is at 9.34% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.74% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 15.11%, or 3.41% if they lose.

Maru vs Sora in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 63.87% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

Sora is at 0.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 36.13% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.07%, or 0.01% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [Other Matches] +

Rogue vs Heart in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Rogue is at 76.2% Blizzcon Chances, with a 64.57% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 87.13%, or 56.28% if they lose.

Heart is at 0.19% Blizzcon Chances, with a 35.43% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.52%, or 0.01% if they lose.

ByuL vs Shine in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

ByuL has the #3 Headband.

ByuL is at 82.45% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.91% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 92.23%, or 67.2% if they lose.

Shine is at 0.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.09% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.07%, or 0.01% if they lose.

sOs vs Solar in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

sOs has the #4 Headband.

sOs is at 36.76% Blizzcon Chances, with a 42.37% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 55.48%, or 22.99% if they lose.

Solar is at 8.8% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.63% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.39%, or 2.56% if they lose.

Zest vs San in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Zest is at 78.1% Blizzcon Chances, with a 68.14% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 89.44%, or 53.84% if they lose.

San is at 4.11% Blizzcon Chances, with a 31.86% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 9.3%, or 1.68% if they lose.

HyuN vs Dark in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

HyuN is at 10.4% Blizzcon Chances, with a 42.44% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 18.68%, or 4.3% if they lose.

Dark is at 66.62% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.56% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 80.8%, or 47.38% if they lose.

TY vs Trap in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

TY is at 16.52% Blizzcon Chances, with a 43.73% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 28.46%, or 7.24% if they lose.

Trap is at 24.11% Blizzcon Chances, with a 56.27% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 34.61%, or 10.58% if they lose.

Snute vs INnoVation in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Snute is at 23.98% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.7% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 38.47%, or 14.43% if they lose.

INnoVation is at 31.73% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.3% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 43.65%, or 13.63% if they lose.

Rain vs TooDming in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Rain has the #1 Headband.

Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 85.77% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

TooDming is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 14.23% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose.

Life vs aLive in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Life is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.44% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

aLive is at 0.1% Blizzcon Chances, with a 32.56% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.28%, or 0.02% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [SSL Winning Chances] +

Classic has a 10.11% chance to win
----going from 99.85% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.83% if they don't.

Rain has a 10.01% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Maru has a 6.97% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Dream has a 6.58% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

herO has a 6.5% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

Stats has a 5.57% chance to win
----going from 40.59% to 100% if they get 1st, or 37.08% if they don't.

Trap has a 5.55% chance to win
----going from 24.11% to 99.72% if they get 1st, or 19.66% if they don't.

Zest has a 5.39% chance to win
----going from 78.1% to 100% if they get 1st, or 76.85% if they don't.

Life has a 5.14% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Dark has a 4.82% chance to win
----going from 66.62% to 100% if they get 1st, or 64.93% if they don't.

INnoVation has a 4.55% chance to win
----going from 31.73% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 28.47% if they don't.

Solar has a 4.27% chance to win
----going from 8.8% to 77.76% if they get 1st, or 5.73% if they don't.

ByuL has a 2.77% chance to win
----going from 82.45% to 100% if they get 1st, or 81.95% if they don't.

Rogue has a 2.73% chance to win
----going from 76.2% to 100% if they get 1st, or 75.53% if they don't.

sOs has a 2.61% chance to win
----going from 36.76% to 100% if they get 1st, or 35.07% if they don't.

soO has a 2.5% chance to win
----going from 4.8% to 64.12% if they get 1st, or 3.28% if they don't.

Dear has a 2.28% chance to win
----going from 9.34% to 97.79% if they get 1st, or 7.28% if they don't.

TY has a 2.08% chance to win
----going from 16.52% to 99.93% if they get 1st, or 14.75% if they don't.

HyuN has a 2.04% chance to win
----going from 10.4% to 98.08% if they get 1st, or 8.58% if they don't.

Snute has a 1.93% chance to win
----going from 23.98% to 99.93% if they get 1st, or 22.48% if they don't.

Journey has a 1.51% chance to win
----going from 0.11% to 6.56% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

San has a 1.07% chance to win
----going from 4.11% to 85.4% if they get 1st, or 3.23% if they don't.

MyuNgSiK has a 0.9% chance to win
----going from 8.41% to 99.83% if they get 1st, or 7.57% if they don't.

Heart has a 0.57% chance to win
----going from 0.19% to 25.43% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't.

Sora has a 0.53% chance to win
----going from 0.03% to 4.06% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

aLive has a 0.53% chance to win
----going from 0.1% to 9.75% if they get 1st, or 0.05% if they don't.

Shine has a 0.46% chance to win
----going from 0.03% to 5.15% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

TooDming has a 0.02% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 3.44% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Darkdwarf

Sweden960 Posts

July 02 2015 19:34 GMT

#549

On June 30 2015 12:58 Die4Ever wrote:

Show nested quote +

If you don't mind the effort, how does the comparison look when you go down the list? Were there as many candidates (20+% or something)?

Die4Ever

United States17601 Posts

July 02 2015 20:14 GMT

#550

On July 03 2015 04:34 Darkdwarf wrote:

Show nested quote +

If you don't mind the effort, how does the comparison look when you go down the list? Were there as many candidates (20+% or something)?

comparing the top 50 (these are just sorted by chances, not fully sorted with the points, so the 100%s aren't in order, but that's not relevant for this anyways)
+ Show Spoiler +


last year 2014-07-01 21:40:31
+------------+----------+
| name       | chances  |
+------------+----------+
| HyuN       | 100.0000 |
| MC         | 100.0000 |
| San        | 100.0000 |
| TaeJa      |  99.9996 |
| Polt       |  99.9983 |
| Classic    |  99.8964 |
| Zest       |  99.8587 |
| Life       |  93.0276 |
| soO        |  90.5054 |
| StarDust   |  83.0311 |
| jjakji     |  79.9901 |
| herO       |  72.1006 |
| sOs        |  57.2991 |
| Bomber     |  53.0442 |
| Jaedong    |  51.8496 |
| ForGG      |  38.8842 |
| Alicia     |  27.5759 |
| VortiX     |  25.2347 |
| First      |  21.4699 |
| Maru       |  13.6700 |
| MMA        |  13.1782 |
| Welmu      |  12.2455 |
| viOLet     |  12.0154 |
| PartinG    |  11.5394 |
| HerO       |  11.2668 |
| INnoVation |  11.2406 |
| Rain       |  10.3233 |
| Heart      |   9.3518 |
| MajOr      |   8.7814 |
| Snute      |   8.3178 |
| Soulkey    |   7.8058 |
| Golden     |   7.0976 |
| Arthur     |   5.2784 |
| Patience   |   5.2232 |
| Oz         |   4.8917 |
| Pigbaby    |   4.7084 |
| Trap       |   4.3715 |
| Solar      |   4.3343 |
| Check      |   3.6327 |
| Revival    |   2.6047 |
| Dear       |   2.5498 |
| DongRaeGu  |   2.0849 |
| Bunny      |   1.9716 |
| Scarlett   |   1.9684 |
| Sen        |   1.6432 |
| Mvp        |   1.6265 |
| Nerchio    |   1.3705 |
| MaNa       |   1.3631 |
| Dayshi     |   1.3529 |
| Bbyong     |   1.3183 |
+------------+----------+

19 players over 20%

currently 2015-07-02 08:44:28
+------------+----------+
| name       | chances  |
+------------+----------+
| Rain       | 100.0000 |
| Hydra      | 100.0000 |
| herO       | 100.0000 |
| PartinG    | 100.0000 |
| Maru       | 100.0000 |
| Life       | 100.0000 |
| Dream      | 100.0000 |
| Classic    |  99.7951 |
| Polt       |  99.6030 |
| Zest       |  86.0540 |
| ByuL       |  82.9702 |
| Rogue      |  72.7400 |
| Dark       |  64.0158 |
| FanTaSy    |  49.8580 |
| INnoVation |  41.8671 |
| Stats      |  38.2978 |
| sOs        |  35.1133 |
| Bunny      |  27.2115 |
| Trap       |  22.9727 |
| Snute      |  22.8074 |
| TY         |  15.5556 |
| ForGG      |  14.3087 |
| Dear       |  14.2514 |
| MyuNgSiK   |  13.8201 |
| Lilbow     |  13.7411 |
| Jaedong    |  11.1392 |
| HyuN       |   9.7277 |
| GuMiho     |   9.7190 |
| Solar      |   8.3081 |
| Curious    |   6.5270 |
| Bbyong     |   5.3356 |
| San        |   3.8065 |
| Soulkey    |   3.2918 |
| TRUE       |   3.1781 |
| StarDust   |   2.9557 |
| ShoWTimE   |   2.8477 |
| MarineLorD |   1.9888 |
| MaNa       |   1.8556 |
| TLO        |   1.6214 |
| soO        |   1.3095 |
| FireCake   |   1.0614 |
| Leenock    |   1.0575 |
| Harstem    |   0.8671 |
| Bomber     |   0.8438 |
| Super      |   0.7920 |
| MMA        |   0.7173 |
| viOLet     |   0.5143 |
| Petraeus   |   0.4813 |
| Sacsri     |   0.3649 |
| MajOr      |   0.3428 |
+------------+----------+

20 players over 20%

So this time last year was 19 players over 20%, right now we're at 20 players over 20%. But this year does seem a little more settled overall. Last year was 3 players at 100%, now we're at 7. Also the 50th spot last year was at 1.3%, which is higher than this year's 50th spot at 0.3%. I didn't check to compare how many tournaments were completed or how far along they were in season 2 or anything like that.

Darkdwarf

Sweden960 Posts

July 02 2015 21:53 GMT

#551

I feel like the disparity between top performers and bottom performers has grown this year compared to last year. It feels natural, though, with the addition of KeSPA Cup/SSL and removal of HSC/etc.

intotheheart

Canada33091 Posts

July 02 2015 21:58 GMT

#552

On July 03 2015 06:53 Darkdwarf wrote:
I feel like the disparity between top performers and bottom performers has grown this year compared to last year. It feels natural, though, with the addition of KeSPA Cup/SSL and removal of HSC/etc.

Yeah I think that has contributed to the top players having higher staying power.

Are there fewer tournaments this year as well? It seems like I've only seen Polt play in WCS and in a couple of IEMs.

OtherWorld

France17333 Posts

July 02 2015 22:06 GMT

#553

On July 03 2015 06:58 IntoTheheart wrote:

Show nested quote +

-Less DreamHacks (dunno exactly how many less - we probably lost 3 or 4 DH)
-HSC doesn't give WCS points anymore
-No RedBull events
-Didnt we have one or two MLG last year that aren't scheduled for this year too? Or were they part of the RB events?
-However we gained GFinity events

Die4Ever

United States17601 Posts

July 02 2015 22:15 GMT

#554

On July 03 2015 06:58 IntoTheheart wrote:

Show nested quote +

Liquipedia pages for comparison
current http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2015_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series
10 partner tournaments completed, and there's also SSL

vs July 2nd 2014 http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/index.php?title=2014_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series&oldid=727384
12 partner tournaments completed, GSL season 2 completed

Die4Ever

United States17601 Posts

July 03 2015 04:26 GMT

#555

WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 3 Challenger Day 2

Heart vs Rogue in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Heart is at 0.16% Blizzcon Chances, with a 36.04% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.45%, or 0.01% if they lose.

Rogue is at 71.63% Blizzcon Chances, with a 63.96% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 83.38%, or 50.76% if they lose.

Shine vs ByuL in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

ByuL has the #3 Headband.

Shine is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.03% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.05%, or 0% if they lose.

ByuL is at 82.87% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.97% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 92.42%, or 67.96% if they lose.

sOs vs Solar in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

sOs has the #4 Headband.

sOs is at 35.83% Blizzcon Chances, with a 42.96% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 53.92%, or 22.2% if they lose.

Solar is at 8.84% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.04% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 13.52%, or 2.63% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [Other Matches] +

San vs Zest in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

San is at 3.71% Blizzcon Chances, with a 31.05% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 8.41%, or 1.59% if they lose.

Zest is at 86.6% Blizzcon Chances, with a 68.95% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 94.42%, or 69.24% if they lose.

Dark vs HyuN in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Dark is at 63.85% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.48% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 78.06%, or 44.65% if they lose.

HyuN is at 9.61% Blizzcon Chances, with a 42.52% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 17.32%, or 3.91% if they lose.

TY vs Trap in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

TY is at 15.43% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.45% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 26.39%, or 6.66% if they lose.

Trap is at 22.12% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.55% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 32.08%, or 9.67% if they lose.

Snute vs INnoVation in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Snute is at 21.79% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.49% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 35.37%, or 12.92% if they lose.

INnoVation is at 43.82% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.51% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 57.36%, or 23.08% if they lose.

Rain vs TooDming in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Rain has the #1 Headband.

Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 86.16% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

TooDming is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 13.84% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose.

Life vs aLive in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.

Life is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.67% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

aLive is at 0.08% Blizzcon Chances, with a 32.33% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.21%, or 0.01% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [SSL Winning Chances] +

Maru has a 10.92% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Rain has a 10.14% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Classic has a 9.48% chance to win
----going from 99.79% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.77% if they don't.

Dream has a 6.4% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

herO has a 6.03% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

Zest has a 5.64% chance to win
----going from 86.6% to 100% if they get 1st, or 85.8% if they don't.

Stats has a 5.61% chance to win
----going from 38.87% to 100% if they get 1st, or 35.24% if they don't.

Trap has a 5.04% chance to win
----going from 22.12% to 99.62% if they get 1st, or 18.01% if they don't.

Life has a 4.9% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

INnoVation has a 4.86% chance to win
----going from 43.82% to 100% if they get 1st, or 40.96% if they don't.

Dark has a 4.51% chance to win
----going from 63.85% to 100% if they get 1st, or 62.15% if they don't.

Dear has a 4.46% chance to win
----going from 14.58% to 97.14% if they get 1st, or 10.73% if they don't.

Solar has a 4.34% chance to win
----going from 8.84% to 75.64% if they get 1st, or 5.81% if they don't.

ByuL has a 2.68% chance to win
----going from 82.87% to 100% if they get 1st, or 82.4% if they don't.

sOs has a 2.61% chance to win
----going from 35.83% to 100% if they get 1st, or 34.1% if they don't.

Rogue has a 2.43% chance to win
----going from 71.63% to 100% if they get 1st, or 70.92% if they don't.

TY has a 1.98% chance to win
----going from 15.43% to 99.88% if they get 1st, or 13.73% if they don't.

MyuNgSiK has a 1.96% chance to win
----going from 13.97% to 99.76% if they get 1st, or 12.25% if they don't.

HyuN has a 1.91% chance to win
----going from 9.61% to 97.33% if they get 1st, or 7.91% if they don't.

Snute has a 1.7% chance to win
----going from 21.79% to 99.9% if they get 1st, or 20.44% if they don't.

San has a 0.96% chance to win
----going from 3.71% to 82.99% if they get 1st, or 2.94% if they don't.

Heart has a 0.53% chance to win
----going from 0.16% to 23.73% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't.

aLive has a 0.46% chance to win
----going from 0.08% to 8.47% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't.

Shine has a 0.44% chance to win
----going from 0.02% to 4.27% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

TooDming has a 0.02% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 3.6% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Die4Ever

United States17601 Posts

July 05 2015 22:22 GMT

#556

WCS Predictor 2015
KeSPA Cup 2 Day 1

Curious vs Flash in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.

Curious is at 5.49% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.26% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 7.15%, or 3.25% if they lose.

Flash is at 0.24% Blizzcon Chances, with a 42.74% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.35%, or 0.16% if they lose.

Classic vs Rogue in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.

Classic has the #2 Headband.

Classic is at 99.73% Blizzcon Chances, with a 62.03% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.98%, or 99.33% if they lose.

Rogue is at 81.47% Blizzcon Chances, with a 37.97% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 89.64%, or 76.47% if they lose.

soO vs San in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.

soO is at 1.47% Blizzcon Chances, with a 48.8% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.21%, or 0.78% if they lose.

San is at 3.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 51.2% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 3.81%, or 2.26% if they lose.

jjakji vs herO in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.

jjakji is at 0.12% Blizzcon Chances, with a 37.67% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.18%, or 0.09% if they lose.

herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 62.33% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

ByuL vs Pigbaby in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.

ByuL has the #3 Headband.

ByuL is at 91.79% Blizzcon Chances, with a 63.28% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 96.41%, or 83.83% if they lose.

Pigbaby is at 0.07% Blizzcon Chances, with a 36.72% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.1%, or 0.05% if they lose.

FanTaSy vs Dark in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.

FanTaSy is at 43.29% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.8% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 54.24%, or 34.41% if they lose.

Dark is at 63.29% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.2% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 74.5%, or 49.48% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [Day 2 Matches] +

Maru vs Impact in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.

Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 62.81% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

Impact is at 0.07% Blizzcon Chances, with a 37.19% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.11%, or 0.05% if they lose.

Dream vs TRUE in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.

Dream is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 53.34% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose.

TRUE is at 2.41% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.66% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 3.19%, or 1.73% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [KeSPA Cup 2 Winning Chances] +

Classic has a 13.67% chance to win
----going from 99.73% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.69% if they don't.

Maru has a 12.55% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Dark has a 11.3% chance to win
----going from 63.29% to 90.95% if they get 1st, or 59.77% if they don't.

herO has a 9.81% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

ByuL has a 7.09% chance to win
----going from 91.79% to 99.95% if they get 1st, or 91.17% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

soO has a 6.9% chance to win
----going from 1.47% to 4.34% if they get 1st, or 1.26% if they don't.

FanTaSy has a 6.22% chance to win
----going from 43.29% to 81.75% if they get 1st, or 40.74% if they don't.

Dream has a 5.35% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.

San has a 4.85% chance to win
----going from 3.06% to 7.9% if they get 1st, or 2.81% if they don't.

Rogue has a 4.81% chance to win
----going from 81.47% to 99.34% if they get 1st, or 80.57% if they don't.

Curious has a 4.19% chance to win
----going from 5.49% to 17.14% if they get 1st, or 4.98% if they don't.

TRUE has a 4.16% chance to win
----going from 2.41% to 7.86% if they get 1st, or 2.17% if they don't.

Flash has a 3.07% chance to win
----going from 0.24% to 1.05% if they get 1st, or 0.22% if they don't.

Impact has a 2.41% chance to win
----going from 0.07% to 0.4% if they get 1st, or 0.07% if they don't.

jjakji has a 2.13% chance to win
----going from 0.12% to 0.61% if they get 1st, or 0.11% if they don't.

Pigbaby has a 1.52% chance to win
----going from 0.07% to 0.44% if they get 1st, or 0.06% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [Branches] +

If Fantasy wins http://sc2.4ever.tv/?pid=300&sim_id=2152
(if Fantasy wins this and gets 4th at IEM Shenzhen, that puts him at 97.55%)

If Flash wins http://sc2.4ever.tv/?pid=55&sim_id=2150
(if Flash wins this and GSL Season 3, that puts him at 77.06%)

If Dark wins http://sc2.4ever.tv/?p=p&pid=76&sim_id=2151
(if Dark wins this and beats Hyun in SSL, that puts him at 98.18%)