WCS Predictor 2015 - Page 30

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 09 2015 22:26 GMT

#581

On July 10 2015 07:15 Circumstance wrote:

Correct, so Snute does not get any points if he loses, just as Jim, MacSed, and Scarlett did not get points after losing their SSL Challenger matches.

MacSed did get points though apparently http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2015_StarCraft_II_StarLeague_Season_2/Challenge#Prize_Pool

OtherWorld

France17333 Posts

July 09 2015 22:46 GMT

#582

On July 10 2015 07:26 Die4Ever wrote:

Show nested quote +

MacSed did get points though apparently http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2015_StarCraft_II_StarLeague_Season_2/Challenge#Prize_Pool

What? That's ridiculous

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 09 2015 22:50 GMT

#583

On July 10 2015 07:46 OtherWorld wrote:

Show nested quote +

What? That's ridiculous

And his WCS Points match at 500 across the Blizzard WCS website, Liquipedia, and WCS Predictor
http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/players/macsed

Jim however did not get points for being a Global Seed for SSL season 1.... I have no clue why not lol

BTW, ~~I fixed some of the WCS points, wrote a script to compare mine vs liquipedia's, now only Rain and FireCake are off, working on those now.~~
Fixed all of the WCS points issues (FireCake was just cause Liquipedia hadn't updated with the MSI qualifier yet). I'll continue to use this script to verify WCS Points discrepancies against Liquipedia.

chipmonklord17

United States11944 Posts

July 09 2015 23:13 GMT

#584

On July 10 2015 07:50 Die4Ever wrote:

Show nested quote +

Weirdly Toodming isn't updated for his season 3 challenger nor SSL so I can't figure out if he's also been given the points

sharkie

Austria18396 Posts

July 09 2015 23:15 GMT

#585

On July 10 2015 07:50 Die4Ever wrote:

Show nested quote +

Good job! Yeah I've already updated FireCake's points but my changes always have to be approved so it doesn't show them yet. ^^

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 10 2015 00:30 GMT

#586

So it's been confirmed that MacSed received the points in error and they have been removed.
http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/players/macsed

Toodming will not be gaining points for SSL this season. I just fixed both of these on WCS Predictor, MacSed is now at 450 points, and Toodming is at 250.

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 10 2015 04:09 GMT

#587

WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 3 Challenge Day 4

Snute vs INnoVation in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.
Snute is at 16.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 38.34% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 28.3%, or 8.4% if they lose.
INnoVation is at 47.27% Blizzcon Chances, with a 61.66% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 60.55%, or 25.9% if they lose.

Life vs aLive in
in StarLeague Season 3 round of 24.
Life is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 64.37% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
aLive is at 0.07% Blizzcon Chances, with a 35.63% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.18%, or 0.01% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [SSL Winning Chances] +

Rain has a 11.76% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Maru has a 10.02% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Classic has a 9.24% chance to win
----going from 99.97% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.97% if they don't.

Zest has a 8.19% chance to win
----going from 98.33% to 100% if they get 1st, or 98.18% if they don't.

sOs has a 6.22% chance to win
----going from 57.38% to 100% if they get 1st, or 54.55% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

Dream has a 6.08% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.

herO has a 5.9% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

HyuN has a 5.4% chance to win
----going from 33.08% to 99.7% if they get 1st, or 29.28% if they don't.

Stats has a 5.33% chance to win
----going from 41.75% to 100% if they get 1st, or 38.48% if they don't.

ByuL has a 5.09% chance to win
----going from 95.94% to 100% if they get 1st, or 95.72% if they don't.

INnoVation has a 4.93% chance to win
----going from 47.27% to 100% if they get 1st, or 44.53% if they don't.

Dear has a 4.92% chance to win
----going from 22.8% to 99.47% if they get 1st, or 18.84% if they don't.

Life has a 4.78% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

TY has a 4.14% chance to win
----going from 14.4% to 99.53% if they get 1st, or 10.73% if they don't.

Rogue has a 4.06% chance to win
----going from 72.79% to 100% if they get 1st, or 71.64% if they don't.

MyuNgSiK has a 1.85% chance to win
----going from 14.81% to 99.83% if they get 1st, or 13.21% if they don't.

Snute has a 1.57% chance to win
----going from 16.03% to 99.83% if they get 1st, or 14.69% if they don't.

aLive has a 0.52% chance to win
----going from 0.07% to 6.99% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't.

WCS Predictor 2015
GSL Code A Season 3 Day 3

HerO vs Classic in
in GSL Code A Season 3 round of 48.
Classic has the #2 Headband.
HerO is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.5% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.03%, or 0.01% if they lose.
Classic is at 99.97% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.5% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.93% if they lose.

soO vs Leenock in
in GSL Code A Season 3 round of 48.
soO and Leenock must win this match!
soO is at 2.25% Blizzcon Chances, with a 63.89% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 3.45%, or 0.13% if they lose.
Leenock is at 0.7% Blizzcon Chances, with a 36.11% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.82%, or 0.08% if they lose.

YongHwa vs MMA in
in GSL Code A Season 3 round of 48.
MMA must win this match!
YongHwa is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.81% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose.
MMA is at 0.66% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.19% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.09%, or 0.05% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [Code A Winning Chances] +

Zest has a 73.99% chance to win
----going from 98.33% to 99.03% if they get 1st, or 96.34% if they don't.

Classic has a 71.5% chance to win
----going from 99.97% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 99.93% if they don't.

INnoVation has a 69.78% chance to win
----going from 47.27% to 53.84% if they get 1st, or 32.08% if they don't.

Dark has a 68.62% chance to win
----going from 50.82% to 59.76% if they get 1st, or 31.27% if they don't.

herO has a 65.69% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

soO has a 63.89% chance to win
----going from 2.25% to 3.45% if they get 1st, or 0.13% if they don't.

Hurricane has a 60.78% chance to win
----going from 0.16% to 0.27% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Bbyong has a 60.32% chance to win
----going from 4.23% to 6.64% if they get 1st, or 0.57% if they don't.

MMA has a 59.19% chance to win
----going from 0.66% to 1.09% if they get 1st, or 0.05% if they don't.

Trap has a 57.95% chance to win
----going from 7.53% to 12.24% if they get 1st, or 1.06% if they don't.

FanTaSy has a 57.58% chance to win
----going from 28.5% to 37.54% if they get 1st, or 16.23% if they don't.

Dream has a 55.42% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.

HyuN has a 53.02% chance to win
----going from 33.08% to 41.94% if they get 1st, or 23.08% if they don't.

Cure has a 51.43% chance to win
----going from 0.16% to 0.3% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Panic has a 50.64% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

jjakji has a 50.41% chance to win
----going from 0.04% to 0.09% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Impact has a 50.39% chance to win
----going from 0.06% to 0.12% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Bomber has a 50.24% chance to win
----going from 0.63% to 1.21% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't.

First has a 49.76% chance to win
----going from 0.08% to 0.16% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Flash has a 49.61% chance to win
----going from 0.43% to 0.84% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

Trust has a 49.59% chance to win
----going from 0.03% to 0.06% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Sleep has a 49.36% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

Sacsri has a 48.57% chance to win
----going from 0.4% to 0.8% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

GuMiho has a 46.98% chance to win
----going from 7.57% to 13.08% if they get 1st, or 2.69% if they don't.

Hack has a 44.58% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.02% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

San has a 42.42% chance to win
----going from 0.65% to 1.44% if they get 1st, or 0.06% if they don't.

Life has a 42.05% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

YongHwa has a 40.81% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Super has a 39.68% chance to win
----going from 0.54% to 1.3% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't.

Symbol has a 39.22% chance to win
----going from 0.03% to 0.08% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Leenock has a 36.11% chance to win
----going from 0.7% to 1.82% if they get 1st, or 0.08% if they don't.

Armani has a 34.31% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.03% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

aLive has a 31.38% chance to win
----going from 0.07% to 0.18% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

KeeN has a 30.22% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

HerO has a 28.5% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.03% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Patience has a 26.01% chance to win
----going from 0.23% to 0.78% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [Code S Winning Chances] +

Solar, Trap, soO, Bbyong, Curious, Flash, Sacsri, Bomber, San, MMA, Super, Leenock, and Patience must win this tournament!

Rain has a 10.79% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

PartinG has a 9.14% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Maru has a 7.49% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Classic has a 5.26% chance to win
----going from 99.97% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.97% if they don't.

sOs has a 4.98% chance to win
----going from 57.38% to 100% if they get 1st, or 55.14% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

Zest has a 4.45% chance to win
----going from 98.33% to 100% if they get 1st, or 98.25% if they don't.

Solar has a 4.37% chance to win
----going from 5.45% to 84.39% if they get 1st, or 1.84% if they don't.

Trap has a 4.07% chance to win
----going from 7.54% to 97.91% if they get 1st, or 3.7% if they don't.

INnoVation has a 3.83% chance to win
----going from 47.26% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 45.16% if they don't.

Dark has a 3.75% chance to win
----going from 50.82% to 100% if they get 1st, or 48.9% if they don't.

Dear has a 3.62% chance to win
----going from 22.8% to 99.96% if they get 1st, or 19.9% if they don't.

ByuL has a 3.46% chance to win
----going from 95.95% to 100% if they get 1st, or 95.8% if they don't.

herO has a 2.95% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

soO has a 2.72% chance to win
----going from 2.25% to 57.24% if they get 1st, or 0.71% if they don't.

Rogue has a 2.7% chance to win
----going from 72.78% to 100% if they get 1st, or 72.02% if they don't.

Life has a 2.32% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Bbyong has a 2.14% chance to win
----going from 4.23% to 96.46% if they get 1st, or 2.21% if they don't.

Dream has a 2.05% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.

HyuN has a 1.94% chance to win
----going from 33.08% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 31.76% if they don't.

FanTaSy has a 1.92% chance to win
----going from 28.5% to 100% if they get 1st, or 27.1% if they don't.

Curious has a 1.6% chance to win
----going from 2.78% to 87.91% if they get 1st, or 1.39% if they don't.

GuMiho has a 1.36% chance to win
----going from 7.57% to 99.93% if they get 1st, or 6.3% if they don't.

MyuNgSiK has a 1.24% chance to win
----going from 14.8% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 13.73% if they don't.

Flash has a 1.08% chance to win
----going from 0.43% to 29.66% if they get 1st, or 0.11% if they don't.

Sacsri has a 0.99% chance to win
----going from 0.4% to 29.99% if they get 1st, or 0.1% if they don't.

Hurricane has a 0.88% chance to win
----going from 0.16% to 15.5% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't.

Pigbaby has a 0.85% chance to win
----going from 0.1% to 9.66% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

Cure has a 0.81% chance to win
----going from 0.16% to 15.74% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't.

Bomber has a 0.67% chance to win
----going from 0.63% to 62.32% if they get 1st, or 0.21% if they don't.

San has a 0.61% chance to win
----going from 0.65% to 63.36% if they get 1st, or 0.26% if they don't.

Losira has a 0.58% chance to win
----going from 0.05% to 7.54% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

MMA has a 0.52% chance to win
----going from 0.66% to 77.03% if they get 1st, or 0.26% if they don't.

Impact has a 0.51% chance to win
----going from 0.06% to 10.06% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Super has a 0.48% chance to win
----going from 0.54% to 74.18% if they get 1st, or 0.18% if they don't.

Trust has a 0.47% chance to win
----going from 0.03% to 5.85% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Leenock has a 0.46% chance to win
----going from 0.7% to 87.11% if they get 1st, or 0.3% if they don't.

First has a 0.45% chance to win
----going from 0.08% to 14.59% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

jjakji has a 0.44% chance to win
----going from 0.04% to 8.41% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

sKyHigh has a 0.36% chance to win
----going from 0.05% to 11.25% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Armani has a 0.28% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 3.05% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Patience has a 0.23% chance to win
----going from 0.23% to 58.9% if they get 1st, or 0.09% if they don't.

aLive has a 0.22% chance to win
----going from 0.07% to 11.64% if they get 1st, or 0.05% if they don't.

Stork has a 0.19% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.36% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Symbol has a 0.16% chance to win
----going from 0.03% to 15.11% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Hack has a 0.14% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 4.6% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

HerO has a 0.13% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 5.52% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

YongHwa has a 0.1% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 4.53% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Panic has a 0.09% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 4.1% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Sleep has a 0.06% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.14% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

KeeN has a 0.04% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 2.65% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 10 2015 16:02 GMT

#588

WCS Predictor 2015
WCS Qualifiers Season 3
Updated after AM Qualifier 4, before EU last chance Qualifier

Players who would go over 0.01% Blizzcon Chances if they qualify for WCS
1.02% of the time.
PtitDrogo gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change PtitDrogo's chances
from 0.01% to 0.43%

1.11% of the time.
TargA gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change TargA's chances
from 0.01% to 0.2%

1.38% of the time.
Verdi gets 1st place in WCS Qualifiers Season 3
This would change Verdi's chances
from 0.01% to 0.02%

sharkie

Austria18396 Posts

July 10 2015 22:27 GMT

#589

Man... I don't know who to buy for Kespa cup x.x

OtherWorld

France17333 Posts

July 10 2015 22:31 GMT

#590

Looking at the matchups any investment in KeSPA Cup (apart from Maru and Dream) is too dangerous imo.

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 10 2015 23:07 GMT

#591

Ah crap, Maru is probably gonna face Dream, and that match is going to be played tonight so I might not have time between rounds to sell Dream before then lol.

And soO vs herO, I might have to sell soO

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 10 2015 23:49 GMT

#592

WCS Predictor 2015
KeSPA Cup 2 Day 2

Maru vs Impact in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.
Maru is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 62.79% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.
Impact is at 0.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 37.21% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.09%, or 0.04% if they lose.

Dream vs TRUE in
in KeSPA Cup 2 round of 16.
Dream is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 52.74% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 99.99% if they lose.
TRUE is at 0.65% Blizzcon Chances, with a 47.26% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.01%, or 0.33% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [Quarterfinals] +

Classic vs Flash in
in KeSPA Cup 2 quarterfinals.
Classic has the #2 Headband.
Classic is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.42% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.98% if they lose.
Flash is at 0.41% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.58% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.58%, or 0.29% if they lose.

soO vs herO in
in KeSPA Cup 2 quarterfinals.
soO is at 3.48% Blizzcon Chances, with a 46.28% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 4.62%, or 2.5% if they lose.
herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 53.72% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

Dark vs ByuL in
in KeSPA Cup 2 quarterfinals.
ByuL has the #3 Headband.
Dark is at 50.74% Blizzcon Chances, with a 60.81% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 58.34%, or 38.94% if they lose.
ByuL is at 95.89% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.19% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 98.69%, or 94.09% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [KeSPA Cup 2 Winning Chances] +

Classic has a 20.22% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.

Dark has a 17.52% chance to win
----going from 50.74% to 76.62% if they get 1st, or 45.24% if they don't.

herO has a 14.13% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

soO has a 12.2% chance to win
----going from 3.48% to 7.05% if they get 1st, or 2.98% if they don't.

Maru has a 10.63% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

ByuL has a 9.13% chance to win
----going from 95.89% to 99.95% if they get 1st, or 95.48% if they don't.

Flash has a 6.33% chance to win
----going from 0.41% to 1.21% if they get 1st, or 0.36% if they don't.

Dream has a 4.29% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they don't.

TRUE has a 3.52% chance to win
----going from 0.65% to 3.84% if they get 1st, or 0.54% if they don't.

Impact has a 2.03% chance to win
----going from 0.06% to 0.34% if they get 1st, or 0.05% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [If Flash Wins] +

Branch #2231

-If Flash wins this and also wins Code S then he goes up to 73.83%
-If Flash wins this and gets 2nd in Code S then he goes up to 11.08%
-If Flash wins this and Dreamhack Stockholm then he goes up to 5.8%

Biggest Winners

Flash went up by 0.81%, going from 0.41% to 1.22%

Rogue went up by 0.49%, going from 72.39% to 72.88%

Stats went up by 0.44%, going from 41.25% to 41.69%

sOs went up by 0.31%, going from 56.72% to 57.03%

FanTaSy went up by 0.29%, going from 28.35% to 28.64%

INnoVation went up by 0.26%, going from 61.97% to 62.23%

HyuN went up by 0.25%, going from 32.55% to 32.8%
+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] +

Bunny went up by 0.24%, going from 22.96% to 23.2%

MyuNgSiK went up by 0.2%, going from 14.35% to 14.55%

Dear went up by 0.18%, going from 22.17% to 22.35%

TY went up by 0.16%, going from 14.02% to 14.18%

Jaedong went up by 0.14%, going from 10.16% to 10.29%

ByuL went up by 0.12%, going from 95.89% to 96.01%

Trap went up by 0.11%, going from 7.34% to 7.45%

Biggest Losers

Dark went down by 4.2%, going from 50.74% to 46.54%

soO went down by 0.54%, going from 3.48% to 2.93%

+ Show Spoiler [If Dark Wins] +

Branch #2232

-If Dark wins this and gets 8th place in Code S then he goes up to 98.97%
-If Dark wins this and gets 16th place in Code S then he goes up to 89.57%
-If Dark wins this and Dreamhack Stockholm then he goes up to 99.98%
-If Dark wins this and gets 8th place at IEM Shenzhen then he goes up to 92.7%

Biggest Winners

Dark went up by 25.87%, going from 50.74% to 76.61%

Biggest Losers

ByuL went down by 2.58%, going from 95.89% to 93.31%

Rogue went down by 2.4%, going from 72.39% to 69.99%

Stats went down by 2.37%, going from 41.25% to 38.89%

sOs went down by 2.06%, going from 56.72% to 54.66%

INnoVation went down by 1.91%, going from 61.97% to 60.06%

FanTaSy went down by 1.74%, going from 28.35% to 26.6%

HyuN went down by 1.55%, going from 32.55% to 30.99%
+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] +

Bunny went down by 1.33%, going from 22.96% to 21.62%

Dear went down by 1.13%, going from 22.17% to 21.04%

MyuNgSiK went down by 1.03%, going from 14.35% to 13.32%

TY went down by 0.93%, going from 14.02% to 13.09%

GuMiho went down by 0.58%, going from 7.45% to 6.87%

Jaedong went down by 0.53%, going from 10.16% to 9.63%

soO went down by 0.52%, going from 3.48% to 2.95%

Snute went down by 0.45%, going from 7.31% to 6.86%

Lilbow went down by 0.42%, going from 9.39% to 8.97%

ForGG went down by 0.37%, going from 10.55% to 10.18%

Trap went down by 0.35%, going from 7.34% to 6.99%

Zest went down by 0.34%, going from 98.32% to 97.98%

Solar went down by 0.33%, going from 5.24% to 4.92%

Bbyong went down by 0.26%, going from 4.1% to 3.85%

Polt went down by 0.23%, going from 99.01% to 98.78%

Soulkey went down by 0.22%, going from 1.62% to 1.4%

Curious went down by 0.2%, going from 2.66% to 2.45%

TRUE went down by 0.2%, going from 0.65% to 0.45%

StarDust went down by 0.18%, going from 1.99% to 1.8%

ShoWTimE went down by 0.17%, going from 2.82% to 2.65%

MarineLorD went down by 0.17%, going from 1.52% to 1.35%

MaNa went down by 0.1%, going from 1.06% to 0.96%

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 12 2015 01:44 GMT

#593

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WCS Challenger Matches Selected and IEM Shenzhen Groups Set!
Sunday, Jul 12 1:45am GMT (GMT+00:00) (Sim #2245)

Biggest Winners and Losers during Season 2 (Sim ID #2238 vs Sim ID #2245)
Biggest Winners

ForGG went up by 2.38%, going from 10.42% to 12.8%

MyuNgSiK went up by 1.18%, going from 13.96% to 15.14%

Lilbow went up by 0.83%, going from 9.23% to 10.06%

Dark went up by 0.66%, going from 59.77% to 60.43%

soO went up by 0.28%, going from 4.75% to 5.03%

FireCake went up by 0.17%, going from 1.44% to 1.61%

MarineLorD went up by 0.13%, going from 1.47% to 1.6%

Biggest Losers

StarDust went down by 1.02%, going from 1.93% to 0.92%

TY went down by 0.77%, going from 13.65% to 12.89%

Snute went down by 0.71%, going from 7.17% to 6.45%

Jaedong went down by 0.54%, going from 9.96% to 9.42%

GuMiho went down by 0.4%, going from 7.25% to 6.85%

ShoWTimE went down by 0.36%, going from 2.75% to 2.39%

Bunny went down by 0.31%, going from 22.45% to 22.14%
+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] +

MaNa went down by 0.24%, going from 1.03% to 0.79%

ByuL went down by 0.23%, going from 93.97% to 93.74%

Stats went down by 0.23%, going from 40.44% to 40.21%

FanTaSy went down by 0.19%, going from 27.72% to 27.52%

sOs went down by 0.15%, going from 55.94% to 55.8%

Dear went down by 0.1%, going from 21.74% to 21.64%

+ Show Spoiler [Top 50 players by Blizzcon Chances] +

herO is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 5600, Median Points: 6500
Life is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 5275, Median Points: 5975
Maru is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 5150, Median Points: 6175
PartinG is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 4625, Median Points: 5800
Hydra is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 4200, Median Points: 5050
Dream is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 4175, Median Points: 5000
Rain is at 100%, 100% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 4125, Median Points: 5825
Classic is at 99.97%, 98.02% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 3325, Median Points: 4475
Polt is at 98.95%, 93.17% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 3200, Median Points: 3750
Zest is at 98.21%, 57.44% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2950, Median Points: 3975
ByuL is at 93.74%, 41.9% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2875, Median Points: 3625
Rogue is at 71.52%, 1.08% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2525, Median Points: 3250
INnoVation is at 61.22%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2075, Median Points: 3150
Dark is at 60.43%, 0.14% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2425, Median Points: 3075
sOs is at 55.8%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2200, Median Points: 3050
Stats is at 40.21%, 0.02% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2350, Median Points: 2825
HyuN is at 31.99%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1525, Median Points: 2625
FanTaSy is at 27.52%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 2075, Median Points: 2600
Bunny is at 22.14%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1950, Median Points: 2500
Dear is at 21.64%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1625, Median Points: 2400
MyuNgSiK is at 15.14%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1725, Median Points: 2325
TY is at 12.89%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1650, Median Points: 2250
ForGG is at 12.8%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1325, Median Points: 1925
Lilbow is at 10.06%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1475, Median Points: 1975
Jaedong is at 9.42%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1400, Median Points: 2000
Trap is at 7.12%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1350, Median Points: 1800
GuMiho is at 6.85%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1550, Median Points: 2025
Snute is at 6.45%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1325, Median Points: 1850
Solar is at 5.1%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1150, Median Points: 1650
soO is at 5.03%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 925, Median Points: 1600
Bbyong is at 3.99%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1300, Median Points: 1675
Curious is at 2.58%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1150, Median Points: 1650
ShoWTimE is at 2.39%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1000, Median Points: 1500
FireCake is at 1.61%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 975, Median Points: 1350
MarineLorD is at 1.6%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 700, Median Points: 1075
Soulkey is at 1.49%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1725, Median Points: 1850
MMA is at 1.03%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1100, Median Points: 1400
StarDust is at 0.92%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 650, Median Points: 1025
MaNa is at 0.79%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 575, Median Points: 950
Harstem is at 0.75%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 900, Median Points: 1275
TLO is at 0.73%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1250, Median Points: 1500
Flash is at 0.64%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 625, Median Points: 1000
San is at 0.6%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 850, Median Points: 1225
Bomber is at 0.58%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 925, Median Points: 1175
Super is at 0.5%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 1025, Median Points: 1275
uThermal is at 0.43%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 525, Median Points: 900
Sacsri is at 0.43%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 500, Median Points: 875
Happy is at 0.32%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 250, Median Points: 600
Petraeus is at 0.32%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 450, Median Points: 800
Welmu is at 0.29%, 0% AFK Chances, Min WCS Points: 400, Median Points: 775

Full Player List

Right now we have 7 players locked in at 100% - herO, Life, Maru, Parting, Hydra, Dream, and Rain. And then Classic is up at 99.97%, with 97.95% AFK Chances.
The Point Cutoff for 90% chances right now is 3275 WCS Points, so I'll use that this for analysis. Keep in mind that minimum points already counts future guaranteed points.
Players who need 500 more points or less (2nd place at a Dreamhack or 8th at WCS for example) - Polt, Zest, and ByuL.
Players who need 750 (1st at a Dreamhack or 4th at WCS) - Rogue.
Players who need 1,400 (4th at WCS + 2nd at a Dreamhack) - Dark, Stats, sOs, INnoVation, FanTaSy, and Bunny.
Players who need 1,650 (4th at WCS + 1st at a Dreamhack) - MyuNgSiK, Soulkey, TY, and Dear.
Players who need 2,000 (1st at WCS or 2nd at WCS + 1st at a Dreamhack) - GuMiho, HyuN, Lilbow, Jaedong, Trap, ForGG, Snute, and Bbyong.

+ Show Spoiler [Foreigner Hope] +

Chances of 1+ foreigners from 45.22% down to 44.73%
Chances of 2+ foreigners from 5.46% down to 5.28%
Chances of 3+ foreigners from 0.14% down to 0.13%

Bunny 18.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 22.14% chance overall.

Lilbow 7.77% chance to be the only foreigner, 10.06% chance overall.

Snute 4.85% chance to be the only foreigner, 6.45% chance overall.

ShoWTimE 1.8% chance to be the only foreigner, 2.39% chance overall.

MarineLorD 1.24% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.6% chance overall.

FireCake 1.22% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.61% chance overall.

MaNa 0.61% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.79% chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More Foreigner Hopes] +

Harstem 0.57% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.75% chance overall.

TLO 0.54% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.73% chance overall.

uThermal 0.34% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.43% chance overall.

Petraeus 0.25% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.32% chance overall.

Happy 0.25% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.32% chance overall.

NaNiwa 0.23% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.29% chance overall.

Welmu 0.22% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.29% chance overall.

MajOr 0.21% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.27% chance overall.

GunGFuBanDa 0.13% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.17% chance overall.

Nerchio 0.11% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.14% chance overall.

Serral 0.11% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.13% chance overall.

Kane 0.1% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.12% chance overall.

iaguz 0.09% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.11% chance overall.

Zanster 0.09% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.11% chance overall.

Jim 0.08% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.11% chance overall.

MaSa 0.08% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.1% chance overall.

HeRoMaRinE 0.08% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.1% chance overall.

Sen 0.08% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.1% chance overall.

HuK 0.07% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.09% chance overall.

Ret 0.07% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.08% chance overall.

Kelazhur 0.05% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.06% chance overall.

iAsonu 0.05% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.06% chance overall.

elfi 0.04% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.05% chance overall.

Has 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall.

Bails 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall.

Bly 0.01% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.02% chance overall.

+ Show Spoiler [Headbands] +

Rain is the current #1 Headband holder with 0 defenses!

Flash is the current #2 Headband holder with 0 defenses!

Dark is the current #3 Headband holder with 0 defenses!

sOs is the current #4 Headband holder with 1 defenses!

Defense History

Dark won the #3 from

ByuL at KeSPA Cup 2

Flash won the #2 from

Classic at KeSPA Cup 2

Classic defended the #2 from

HerO at GSL Code A Season 3
+ Show Spoiler [More Defense History] +

ByuL defended the #3 from

Pigbaby at KeSPA Cup 2

Classic defended the #2 from

Rogue at KeSPA Cup 2

sOs defended the #4 from

Solar at StarLeague Season 3

ByuL defended the #3 from

Shine at StarLeague Season 3

Rain won the #1 from

ByuL at GSL Code S Season 2

Classic won the #2 from

Dream at StarLeague Season 2

Rain defended the #3 from

Curious at GSL Code S Season 2

ByuL defended the #1 from

sOs at GSL Code S Season 2

Rain won the #3 from

Maru at GSL Code S Season 2

sOs won the #4 from

MyuNgSiK at GSL Code S Season 2

Dream won the #2 from

herO at StarLeague Season 2

ByuL won the #1 from

herO at GSL Code S Season 2

ByuL won the #2 from

Dream at GSL Code S Season 2

herO won the #1 from

Dream at GSL Code S Season 2

MyuNgSiK won the #4 from

Bomber at GSL Code S Season 2

Bomber won the #4 from

Life at GSL Code S Season 2

Maru won the #3 from

MyuNgSiK at GSL Code S Season 2

MyuNgSiK defended the #3 from

Life at GSL Code S Season 2

Dream won the #1 from

Life at StarLeague Season 2

herO defended the #2 from

Maru at StarLeague Season 2

Dream won the #4 from

Flash at GSL Code S Season 2

herO defended the #2 from

Flash at GSL Code S Season 2

Flash won the #4 from

Dream at GSL Code S Season 2

herO defended the #2 from

Patience at GSL Code S Season 2

Dream defended the #4 from

Classic at StarLeague Season 2

Dream defended the #4 from

HyuN at StarLeague Season 2

herO defended the #2 from

Dark at KeSPA Cup 1

herO won the #2 from

ByuL at KeSPA Cup 1

ByuL won the #2 from

MyuNgSiK at KeSPA Cup 1

Life defended the #1 from

Dream at KeSPA Cup 1

ByuL won the #3 from

Maru at KeSPA Cup 1

MyuNgSiK defended the #2 from

Rogue at KeSPA Cup 1

Dream won the #4 from

Stats at KeSPA Cup 1

Stats defended the #4 from

herO at StarLeague Season 2

Stats won the #4 from

Dear at StarLeague Season 2

MyuNgSiK won the #2 from

PartinG at GSL Code S Season 2

PartinG defended the #2 from

RagnaroK at GSL Code S Season 2

Maru won the #3 from

Zest at StarLeague Season 2

Zest defended the #3 from

Leenock at StarLeague Season 2

PartinG defended the #2 from

MacSed at StarLeague Season 2

Dear won the #4 from

sOs at StarLeague Season 2

Zest defended the #3 from

Bbyong at StarLeague Season 2

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

0.87% of the time 2575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
10.67% of the time 2775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
28.88% of the time 2900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
48.62% of the time 3000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
71.06% of the time 3125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
90.17% of the time 3275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
98.96% of the time 3475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Challenger Winning Chances] +

WCS Challenger Season 3
SEA/OCE starts in ~
AM starts in
EU starts in

ForGG has a 82.03% chance to win
----going from 12.8% to 15.48% if they get 1st, or 0.58% if they don't.

Sen has a 76.56% chance to win
----going from 0.1% to 0.12% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Polt has a 75.42% chance to win
----going from 98.95% to 99.53% if they get 1st, or 97.18% if they don't.

Has has a 75.19% chance to win
----going from 0.02% to 0.03% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Lilbow has a 72.71% chance to win
----going from 10.06% to 13.56% if they get 1st, or 0.74% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

StarDust has a 71.47% chance to win
----going from 0.91% to 1.28% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

GunGFuBanDa has a 69.76% chance to win
----going from 0.17% to 0.25% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Jaedong has a 67.79% chance to win
----going from 9.42% to 13.41% if they get 1st, or 1.04% if they don't.

MarineLorD has a 67.42% chance to win
----going from 1.6% to 2.36% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

Petraeus has a 63.36% chance to win
----going from 0.32% to 0.5% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

HeRoMaRinE has a 62.92% chance to win
----going from 0.1% to 0.16% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Bunny has a 62.84% chance to win
----going from 22.14% to 30.86% if they get 1st, or 7.4% if they don't.

viOLet has a 61.03% chance to win
----going from 0.26% to 0.42% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Snute has a 60.49% chance to win
----going from 6.45% to 10.21% if they get 1st, or 0.71% if they don't.

iaguz has a 59.48% chance to win
----going from 0.11% to 0.19% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

HuK has a 58.69% chance to win
----going from 0.09% to 0.16% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Welmu has a 56.64% chance to win
----going from 0.29% to 0.51% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

uThermal has a 55.6% chance to win
----going from 0.44% to 0.78% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Xenocider has a 54.8% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

Nerchio has a 52.83% chance to win
----going from 0.14% to 0.27% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Happy has a 52.47% chance to win
----going from 0.32% to 0.61% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

MaSa has a 52.19% chance to win
----going from 0.1% to 0.2% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

TLO has a 51.56% chance to win
----going from 0.73% to 1.38% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't.

ShoWTimE has a 50.76% chance to win
----going from 2.39% to 4.58% if they get 1st, or 0.14% if they don't.

Zanster has a 50.25% chance to win
----going from 0.11% to 0.22% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

FireCake has a 49.75% chance to win
----going from 1.61% to 3.16% if they get 1st, or 0.07% if they don't.

NaNiwa has a 49.24% chance to win
----going from 0.29% to 0.58% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Bly has a 48.44% chance to win
----going from 0.02% to 0.04% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Bails has a 47.81% chance to win
----going from 0.02% to 0.04% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

MaNa has a 47.53% chance to win
----going from 0.79% to 1.65% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

Harstem has a 47.17% chance to win
----going from 0.75% to 1.55% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't.

Hitman has a 45.2% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

elfi has a 44.4% chance to win
----going from 0.05% to 0.12% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Elazer has a 43.36% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Kane has a 41.31% chance to win
----going from 0.12% to 0.3% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Blysk has a 40.52% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

Serral has a 39.51% chance to win
----going from 0.13% to 0.34% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

qxc has a 38.97% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.03% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Starbuck has a 37.16% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.02% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

Ret has a 37.08% chance to win
----going from 0.08% to 0.23% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

NXZ has a 36.64% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

DmC has a 32.58% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Semper has a 32.21% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

DnS has a 30.24% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.02% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

neeb has a 28.53% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

SortOf has a 27.29% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

JonSnow has a 24.58% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

Dayshi has a 17.97% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [KeSPA Cup 2 Winning Chances] +

KeSPA Cup 2 in ~

Dark has a 35.53% chance to win
----going from 60.43% to 77.13% if they get 1st, or 51.23% if they don't.

soO has a 30.2% chance to win
----going from 5.03% to 7.37% if they get 1st, or 4.02% if they don't.

Dream has a 17.41% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Flash has a 16.87% chance to win
----going from 0.64% to 1.32% if they get 1st, or 0.5% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Premier Winning Chances] +

WCS Premier Season 3 in ~
ForGG, Lilbow, Jaedong, MarineLorD, Snute, StarDust, MaNa, ShoWTimE, FireCake, uThermal, Harstem, TLO, and Kane must win this tournament!

Hydra has a 16.42% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

ForGG has a 9.35% chance to win
----going from 12.8% to 97.18% if they get 1st, or 4.1% if they don't.

Polt has a 7.57% chance to win
----going from 98.95% to 100% if they get 1st, or 98.86% if they don't.

Lilbow has a 5.9% chance to win
----going from 10.06% to 99.49% if they get 1st, or 4.45% if they don't.

Jaedong has a 4.68% chance to win
----going from 9.42% to 99.39% if they get 1st, or 5.01% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

MarineLorD has a 4.06% chance to win
----going from 1.59% to 34.37% if they get 1st, or 0.21% if they don't.

Bunny has a 3.93% chance to win
----going from 22.14% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 18.96% if they don't.

MajOr has a 3.54% chance to win
----going from 0.27% to 7.17% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

Snute has a 3.25% chance to win
----going from 6.46% to 98.65% if they get 1st, or 3.36% if they don't.

Happy has a 3.13% chance to win
----going from 0.32% to 9.48% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

NaNiwa has a 2.93% chance to win
----going from 0.29% to 9.15% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

StarDust has a 2.91% chance to win
----going from 0.92% to 27.85% if they get 1st, or 0.11% if they don't.

Nerchio has a 2.28% chance to win
----going from 0.14% to 5.82% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Petraeus has a 2.08% chance to win
----going from 0.32% to 13.99% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't.

MaNa has a 2.08% chance to win
----going from 0.79% to 32.22% if they get 1st, or 0.12% if they don't.

HeRoMaRinE has a 1.94% chance to win
----going from 0.1% to 4.76% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

ShoWTimE has a 1.89% chance to win
----going from 2.39% to 83.58% if they get 1st, or 0.82% if they don't.

viOLet has a 1.61% chance to win
----going from 0.26% to 14.47% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't.

Welmu has a 1.55% chance to win
----going from 0.29% to 16.55% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't.

MaSa has a 1.49% chance to win
----going from 0.1% to 6.47% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

FireCake has a 1.48% chance to win
----going from 1.61% to 77.52% if they get 1st, or 0.47% if they don't.

uThermal has a 1.38% chance to win
----going from 0.44% to 27.41% if they get 1st, or 0.06% if they don't.

GunGFuBanDa has a 1.38% chance to win
----going from 0.17% to 11.53% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Zanster has a 1.03% chance to win
----going from 0.11% to 9.75% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Jim has a 0.93% chance to win
----going from 0.11% to 10.49% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

HuK has a 0.88% chance to win
----going from 0.09% to 9.56% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

elfi has a 0.79% chance to win
----going from 0.05% to 6.12% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Sen has a 0.73% chance to win
----going from 0.1% to 12.14% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

iAsonu has a 0.73% chance to win
----going from 0.06% to 7.95% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Bails has a 0.71% chance to win
----going from 0.02% to 2.42% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Harstem has a 0.71% chance to win
----going from 0.75% to 71.59% if they get 1st, or 0.25% if they don't.

Serral has a 0.62% chance to win
----going from 0.13% to 19.03% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

iaguz has a 0.61% chance to win
----going from 0.11% to 16.57% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Bly has a 0.58% chance to win
----going from 0.02% to 2.99% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Kelazhur has a 0.51% chance to win
----going from 0.06% to 11.45% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Ret has a 0.46% chance to win
----going from 0.08% to 16.17% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

TLO has a 0.44% chance to win
----going from 0.73% to 94.58% if they get 1st, or 0.32% if they don't.

Kane has a 0.37% chance to win
----going from 0.12% to 29.93% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Starbuck has a 0.33% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.96% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

qxc has a 0.27% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 3.57% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

DnS has a 0.26% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.97% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

SortOf has a 0.25% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.57% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Xenocider has a 0.23% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 2.47% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Elazer has a 0.22% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 2.34% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Has has a 0.22% chance to win
----going from 0.02% to 9.16% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Semper has a 0.21% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.49% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Hitman has a 0.19% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.07% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

DmC has a 0.17% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 2.28% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Dayshi has a 0.16% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.35% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

XiGua has a 0.15% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 3.65% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Blysk has a 0.1% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.38% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

NXZ has a 0.09% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.3% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

neeb has a 0.08% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.76% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Shana has a 0.07% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.44% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

JonSnow has a 0.05% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.74% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.

Ian has a 0.01% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.82% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [GSL Code S Season 3] +

GSL Code S Season 3 (unscheduled)
soO, Solar, Trap, Bbyong, Curious, Flash, Sacsri, MMA, Bomber, San, Super, and Patience must win this tournament!

Rain has a 10.45% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

PartinG has a 8.83% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Maru has a 7.21% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Classic has a 6.69% chance to win
----going from 99.97% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.97% if they don't.

sOs has a 4.76% chance to win
----going from 55.79% to 100% if they get 1st, or 53.58% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

soO has a 4.59% chance to win
----going from 5.03% to 73.58% if they get 1st, or 1.73% if they don't.

Zest has a 4.23% chance to win
----going from 98.22% to 100% if they get 1st, or 98.14% if they don't.

Solar has a 4.17% chance to win
----going from 5.1% to 83.8% if they get 1st, or 1.68% if they don't.

INnoVation has a 4.05% chance to win
----going from 61.22% to 100% if they get 1st, or 59.58% if they don't.

Dark has a 3.95% chance to win
----going from 60.43% to 100% if they get 1st, or 58.8% if they don't.

Trap has a 3.89% chance to win
----going from 7.12% to 97.92% if they get 1st, or 3.45% if they don't.

Dear has a 3.46% chance to win
----going from 21.64% to 99.96% if they get 1st, or 18.84% if they don't.

ByuL has a 3.04% chance to win
----going from 93.74% to 100% if they get 1st, or 93.54% if they don't.

Rogue has a 2.59% chance to win
----going from 71.51% to 100% if they get 1st, or 70.75% if they don't.

herO has a 2.55% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Dream has a 2.38% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Life has a 2.29% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Bbyong has a 2.08% chance to win
----going from 3.99% to 96.31% if they get 1st, or 2.04% if they don't.

HyuN has a 1.87% chance to win
----going from 31.99% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 30.7% if they don't.

FanTaSy has a 1.86% chance to win
----going from 27.53% to 100% if they get 1st, or 26.15% if they don't.

Curious has a 1.52% chance to win
----going from 2.58% to 87.27% if they get 1st, or 1.28% if they don't.

MyuNgSiK has a 1.34% chance to win
----going from 15.14% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 13.99% if they don't.

GuMiho has a 1.24% chance to win
----going from 6.85% to 99.92% if they get 1st, or 5.68% if they don't.

Flash has a 1.17% chance to win
----going from 0.64% to 39.67% if they get 1st, or 0.18% if they don't.

Sacsri has a 1.09% chance to win
----going from 0.43% to 29.92% if they get 1st, or 0.11% if they don't.

MMA has a 0.86% chance to win
----going from 1.03% to 75.87% if they get 1st, or 0.38% if they don't.

Pigbaby has a 0.79% chance to win
----going from 0.08% to 9.05% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Cure has a 0.77% chance to win
----going from 0.14% to 15.08% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't.

Hurricane has a 0.69% chance to win
----going from 0.11% to 14.05% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.

Bomber has a 0.64% chance to win
----going from 0.58% to 60.52% if they get 1st, or 0.2% if they don't.

San has a 0.58% chance to win
----going from 0.59% to 62.47% if they get 1st, or 0.23% if they don't.

Losira has a 0.5% chance to win
----going from 0.04% to 6.9% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Super has a 0.46% chance to win
----going from 0.5% to 73.12% if they get 1st, or 0.16% if they don't.

Trust has a 0.45% chance to win
----going from 0.03% to 5.33% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Impact has a 0.44% chance to win
----going from 0.03% to 6.22% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

jjakji has a 0.42% chance to win
----going from 0.04% to 8.09% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

First has a 0.42% chance to win
----going from 0.07% to 14.09% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

sKyHigh has a 0.34% chance to win
----going from 0.04% to 10.48% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Armani has a 0.31% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 3.11% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Patience has a 0.21% chance to win
----going from 0.2% to 57.33% if they get 1st, or 0.08% if they don't.

aLive has a 0.19% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 3.79% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Stork has a 0.18% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 1.27% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Symbol has a 0.15% chance to win
----going from 0.03% to 14.45% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Hack has a 0.13% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 3.96% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Panic has a 0.08% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 3.67% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

Sleep has a 0.05% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 0.89% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

KeeN has a 0.05% chance to win
----going from 0.01% to 2.77% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [SSL S3 Winning Chances] +

StarLeague Season 3 (unscheduled)

Rain has a 11.41% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Maru has a 9.64% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

INnoVation has a 8.49% chance to win
----going from 61.22% to 100% if they get 1st, or 57.62% if they don't.

Classic has a 8.27% chance to win
----going from 99.97% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.97% if they don't.

Zest has a 7.67% chance to win
----going from 98.22% to 100% if they get 1st, or 98.07% if they don't.
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

Life has a 7.4% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Dream has a 6.58% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

sOs has a 5.94% chance to win
----going from 55.79% to 100% if they get 1st, or 52.99% if they don't.

herO has a 5.26% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

HyuN has a 5.21% chance to win
----going from 31.99% to 99.69% if they get 1st, or 28.28% if they don't.

Stats has a 5.02% chance to win
----going from 40.21% to 100% if they get 1st, or 37.05% if they don't.

Dear has a 4.67% chance to win
----going from 21.64% to 99.48% if they get 1st, or 17.83% if they don't.

ByuL has a 4.58% chance to win
----going from 93.74% to 100% if they get 1st, or 93.44% if they don't.

TY has a 3.99% chance to win
----going from 12.89% to 99.49% if they get 1st, or 9.28% if they don't.

Rogue has a 3.92% chance to win
----going from 71.51% to 100% if they get 1st, or 70.34% if they don't.

MyuNgSiK has a 1.96% chance to win
----going from 15.14% to 99.85% if they get 1st, or 13.45% if they don't.

Check out the fantasy league WCS Wars!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 12 2015 03:39 GMT

#594

WCS Predictor 2015
KeSPA Cup 2 Day 3

Flash vs soO in
in KeSPA Cup 2 semifinals.
Flash has the #2 Headband.
Flash is at 0.64% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.01% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.92%, or 0.45% if they lose.
soO is at 5.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.99% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 6.02%, or 3.55% if they lose.

Dark vs Dream in
in KeSPA Cup 2 semifinals.
Dark has the #3 Headband.
Dark is at 60.43% Blizzcon Chances, with a 59.63% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 68.9%, or 47.92% if they lose.
Dream is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 40.37% chance to win this match.
If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose.

+ Show Spoiler [KeSPA Cup 2 Winning Chances] +

Dark has a 35.52% chance to win
----going from 60.43% to 77.12% if they get 1st, or 51.24% if they don't.

soO has a 30.2% chance to win
----going from 5.03% to 7.37% if they get 1st, or 4.02% if they don't.

Dream has a 17.41% chance to win
----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't.

Flash has a 16.87% chance to win
----going from 0.64% to 1.32% if they get 1st, or 0.5% if they don't.

+ Show Spoiler [If Flash Wins] +

Branch #2248
-If Flash wins this and Dreamhack Stockholm he goes up to 6.11%
-If Flash wins this and Code S he goes up to 73.9%
-If Flash wins this and gets 2nd in Code S he goes up to 11.13%

Biggest Winners

Rogue went up by 0.95%, going from 71.51% to 72.46%

Stats went up by 0.92%, going from 40.21% to 41.12%

sOs went up by 0.81%, going from 55.79% to 56.59%

FanTaSy went up by 0.72%, going from 27.53% to 28.25%

INnoVation went up by 0.7%, going from 61.21% to 61.92%

Flash went up by 0.68%, going from 0.64% to 1.32%

Bunny went up by 0.58%, going from 22.14% to 22.72%
+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] +

HyuN went up by 0.55%, going from 31.98% to 32.53%

ByuL went up by 0.44%, going from 93.74% to 94.18%

MyuNgSiK went up by 0.43%, going from 15.15% to 15.57%

Dear went up by 0.42%, going from 21.65% to 22.07%

TY went up by 0.36%, going from 12.89% to 13.25%

GuMiho went up by 0.2%, going from 6.85% to 7.05%

Lilbow went up by 0.16%, going from 10.06% to 10.23%

ForGG went up by 0.15%, going from 12.8% to 12.95%

Snute went up by 0.15%, going from 6.46% to 6.61%

Zest went up by 0.15%, going from 98.22% to 98.36%

Jaedong went up by 0.15%, going from 9.43% to 9.57%

Solar went up by 0.14%, going from 5.1% to 5.24%

Trap went up by 0.13%, going from 7.12% to 7.25%

Polt went up by 0.1%, going from 98.95% to 99.05%

Biggest Losers

Dark went down by 8.36%, going from 60.43% to 52.08%

soO went down by 1.36%, going from 5.03% to 3.67%

+ Show Spoiler [If Dark Wins] +

Branch #2249
-If Dark wins this and Code A he goes up to 84.59%
-If Dark wins this and gets 2nd in Dreamhack Stockholm he goes up to 99.14%
-If Dark wins this and gets 8th place in Code S he goes up to 99.03%

Biggest Winners

Dark went up by 16.69%, going from 60.43% to 77.12%

Biggest Losers

Rogue went down by 1.58%, going from 71.51% to 69.92%

Stats went down by 1.56%, going from 40.21% to 38.65%

sOs went down by 1.38%, going from 55.79% to 54.41%

INnoVation went down by 1.22%, going from 61.21% to 59.99%

FanTaSy went down by 1.18%, going from 27.53% to 26.35%

soO went down by 1.05%, going from 5.03% to 3.98%

HyuN went down by 0.99%, going from 31.98% to 30.99%
+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] +

Bunny went down by 0.95%, going from 22.14% to 21.2%

Dear went down by 0.72%, going from 21.65% to 20.93%

ByuL went down by 0.72%, going from 93.74% to 93.02%

MyuNgSiK went down by 0.71%, going from 15.15% to 14.44%

TY went down by 0.59%, going from 12.89% to 12.3%

GuMiho went down by 0.37%, going from 6.85% to 6.48%

Jaedong went down by 0.32%, going from 9.43% to 9.11%

ForGG went down by 0.3%, going from 12.8% to 12.5%

Lilbow went down by 0.28%, going from 10.06% to 9.78%

Zest went down by 0.24%, going from 98.22% to 97.97%

Trap went down by 0.24%, going from 7.12% to 6.88%

Snute went down by 0.23%, going from 6.46% to 6.22%

Solar went down by 0.21%, going from 5.1% to 4.89%

Polt went down by 0.19%, going from 98.95% to 98.76%

Bbyong went down by 0.15%, going from 3.99% to 3.84%

Flash went down by 0.13%, going from 0.64% to 0.51%

Curious went down by 0.13%, going from 2.58% to 2.45%

Soulkey went down by 0.13%, going from 1.48% to 1.36%

MarineLorD went down by 0.11%, going from 1.59% to 1.48%

ShoWTimE went down by 0.1%, going from 2.39% to 2.29%

+ Show Spoiler [If Dream Wins] +

Branch #2250
-If Dream wins this and Dark gets 8th in Code S then Dark goes up to 80.52%
-If Dream wins this and soO wins Code S then soO goes up to 69.72%
-If Dream wins this and Flash wins Code S then Flash goes up to 36.33%

Biggest Winners

Rogue went up by 1.35%, going from 71.51% to 72.86%

Stats went up by 1.28%, going from 40.21% to 41.48%

sOs went up by 1.16%, going from 55.79% to 56.95%

INnoVation went up by 1.09%, going from 61.21% to 62.31%

FanTaSy went up by 0.95%, going from 27.53% to 28.48%

HyuN went up by 0.86%, going from 31.98% to 32.85%

Bunny went up by 0.79%, going from 22.14% to 22.93%
+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] +

ByuL went up by 0.62%, going from 93.74% to 94.36%

MyuNgSiK went up by 0.6%, going from 15.15% to 15.75%

Dear went up by 0.58%, going from 21.65% to 22.23%

TY went up by 0.48%, going from 12.89% to 13.37%

GuMiho went up by 0.31%, going from 6.85% to 7.16%

Jaedong went up by 0.31%, going from 9.43% to 9.74%

ForGG went up by 0.23%, going from 12.8% to 13.03%

Zest went up by 0.21%, going from 98.22% to 98.42%

Lilbow went up by 0.21%, going from 10.06% to 10.27%

Snute went up by 0.21%, going from 6.46% to 6.66%

Trap went up by 0.2%, going from 7.12% to 7.32%

Polt went up by 0.17%, going from 98.95% to 99.11%

Bbyong went up by 0.16%, going from 3.99% to 4.16%

Solar went up by 0.16%, going from 5.1% to 5.26%

Curious went up by 0.11%, going from 2.58% to 2.7%

Biggest Losers

Dark went down by 12.4%, going from 60.43% to 48.03%

soO went down by 0.58%, going from 5.03% to 4.45%

+ Show Spoiler [If soO Wins] +

Branch #2251
-If soO wins this and Code S then he goes up to 94.89%
-If soO wins this and gets 2nd in Code S then he goes up to 24.43%
-If soO wins this and wins Dreamhack Stockholm then he goes up to 24.45%
-If soO wins this and gets 2nd in Dreamhack Stockholm then he goes up to 15.41%

Biggest Winners

soO went up by 2.34%, going from 5.03% to 7.37%

Stats went up by 0.58%, going from 40.21% to 40.79%

Rogue went up by 0.56%, going from 71.51% to 72.06%

sOs went up by 0.5%, going from 55.79% to 56.29%

FanTaSy went up by 0.44%, going from 27.53% to 27.97%

INnoVation went up by 0.41%, going from 61.21% to 61.62%

HyuN went up by 0.35%, going from 31.98% to 32.34%
+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] +

Bunny went up by 0.34%, going from 22.14% to 22.48%

Dear went up by 0.28%, going from 21.65% to 21.93%

MyuNgSiK went up by 0.24%, going from 15.15% to 15.39%

ByuL went up by 0.24%, going from 93.74% to 93.98%

TY went up by 0.22%, going from 12.89% to 13.11%

GuMiho went up by 0.15%, going from 6.85% to 6.99%

ForGG went up by 0.13%, going from 12.8% to 12.93%

Lilbow went up by 0.13%, going from 10.06% to 10.19%

Jaedong went up by 0.12%, going from 9.43% to 9.54%

Biggest Losers

Dark went down by 7.81%, going from 60.43% to 52.62%

Flash went down by 0.17%, going from 0.64% to 0.47%

sharkie

Austria18396 Posts

July 12 2015 08:34 GMT

#595

soO giving ton of points to my competitors. x.x

OtherWorld

France17333 Posts

July 12 2015 08:37 GMT

#596

On July 12 2015 17:34 sharkie wrote:
soO giving ton of points to my competitors. x.x

soOjwa the Great rewards faith

sharkie

Austria18396 Posts

July 12 2015 17:12 GMT

#597

yay Lilbow and Happy made it!

OtherWorld

France17333 Posts

July 12 2015 17:57 GMT

#598

soO gained only 200 points from KeSPA Cup semifinalist to winner? ):

Die4Ever

United States17671 Posts

July 12 2015 18:14 GMT

#599

On July 13 2015 02:57 OtherWorld wrote:
soO gained only 200 points from KeSPA Cup semifinalist to winner? ):

2nd place vs 1st place is only a difference of 250 points, between 4th place and 1st place is only a difference of 375 points. 200 points seems reasonable. Maybe he'll go up a bit more when I run the update today with his updated Aligulac rating.

I need to start slowly removing placeholder tournaments as the year comes to an end, right now there are 7 placeholders. I plan to remove 1 today, and 1 about every 2 weeks after that. I'm going to give back points lost because of this in WCS Wars so you don't get punished for having players on your team.

I'm going to have a 1% chance that no placeholders exist and make a branch to show the stats for when no placeholders exist.

Also I'm going to add KeSPA Cup 3, and since it hasn't been announced to be giving WCS Points I'm going to make it just have a ~25% chance to exist.

karl1ok

Norway85 Posts

July 12 2015 19:18 GMT

#600

Man, vacation sucks. Cant keep up to date and too buisy to micro my WCS wars squad. Well you cant win every season.

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