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I added KeSPA Cup 3 with a 25% chance to exist, removed placeholder #7, and made all placeholders exist 99% of the time instead of 100% of the time. Also I added the 4 qualified players for IEM Gamescom.
Here are the Biggest Winners/Losers from just today http://sc2.4ever.tv/?sim_id=2277&comp_sim_id=2264#biggest-winners-section
soO and Dark had some gains because if KeSPA Cup does exist then they will be seeded into it.
I also made a branch for when the placeholders don't exist, and a branch for when KeSPA Cup 3 exists.
Here is what happens if we assume that the placeholders won't exist http://sc2.4ever.tv/?sim_id=2280#biggest-winners-section
The WCS Points Cutoffs fall by about 200 points, so players mostly past 50% chances had some gains. Strong players who were expected to do well in the placeholders and have low number of points (like Fantasy) lose chances.
Here is what happens if we assume that KeSPA Cup 3 does exist and gives WCS Points for 2015 http://sc2.4ever.tv/?sim_id=2281#biggest-winners-section
Dark and soO would see some gains from it since they would be seeded into KeSPA Cup 3. Players with a good chance to make the finals of SSL or GSL that need the points would also see good gains.
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WCS Predictor 2015
GSL Code A Season 3 Day 4   Sleep vs  Panic in in GSL Code A Season 3 round of 48. Sleep is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 49.34% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. Panic is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 50.66% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose.  KeeN vs INnoVation in in GSL Code A Season 3 round of 48. KeeN is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 28.69% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose. INnoVation is at 76.95% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.31% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 81.99%, or 64.42% if they lose. Dark vs aLive in in GSL Code A Season 3 round of 48. Dark has the #3 Headband. Dark is at 51.9% Blizzcon Chances, with a 70.78% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 60.95%, or 29.99% if they lose. aLive is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 29.22% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.02%, or 0.01% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [Code A Winning Chances] + Zest has a 74.17% chance to win ----going from 97.19% to 98.29% if they get 1st, or 94.03% if they don't. INnoVation has a 71.31% chance to win ----going from 76.95% to 81.99% if they get 1st, or 64.42% if they don't. Dark has a 70.78% chance to win ----going from 51.9% to 60.95% if they get 1st, or 29.99% if they don't. herO has a 64.6% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Bbyong has a 60.13% chance to win ----going from 3.17% to 5.14% if they get 1st, or 0.21% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Hurricane has a 59.22% chance to win ----going from 0.08% to 0.14% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. FanTaSy has a 57.37% chance to win ----going from 35.93% to 45.29% if they get 1st, or 23.32% if they don't. Trap has a 57.25% chance to win ----going from 5.59% to 9.47% if they get 1st, or 0.41% if they don't. Dream has a 56.79% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. HyuN has a 53.48% chance to win ----going from 27.27% to 35.26% if they get 1st, or 18.09% if they don't. Impact has a 51.19% chance to win ----going from 0.02% to 0.04% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Panic has a 50.66% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Cure has a 50.55% chance to win ----going from 0.11% to 0.21% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. jjakji has a 50.46% chance to win ----going from 0.03% to 0.06% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Bomber has a 50.18% chance to win ----going from 0.45% to 0.88% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. First has a 49.82% chance to win ----going from 0.05% to 0.11% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Trust has a 49.54% chance to win ----going from 0.02% to 0.04% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sacsri has a 49.45% chance to win ----going from 0.36% to 0.72% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sleep has a 49.34% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Flash has a 48.81% chance to win ----going from 0.29% to 0.59% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. GuMiho has a 46.52% chance to win ----going from 5.3% to 9.69% if they get 1st, or 1.48% if they don't. Hack has a 43.21% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Life has a 42.75% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. San has a 42.63% chance to win ----going from 0.48% to 1.09% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't. Symbol has a 40.78% chance to win ----going from 0.02% to 0.05% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Super has a 39.87% chance to win ----going from 0.43% to 1.05% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Armani has a 35.4% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.02% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. aLive has a 29.22% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.02% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. KeeN has a 28.69% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Patience has a 25.83% chance to win ----going from 0.27% to 0.92% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't. Solar, Trap, Bbyong, Curious, GuMiho, Sacsri, Flash, MMA, Bomber, San, Super, and Patience must win this tournament! Rain has a 10.34% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. PartinG has a 8.68% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Maru has a 7.09% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. soO has a 6.68% chance to win ----going from 16.21% to 99.28% if they get 1st, or 10.27% if they don't. Classic has a 6.6% chance to win ----going from 99.94% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.94% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + sOs has a 4.68% chance to win ----going from 49.27% to 100% if they get 1st, or 46.78% if they don't. INnoVation has a 4.53% chance to win ----going from 76.95% to 100% if they get 1st, or 75.85% if they don't. Zest has a 4.15% chance to win ----going from 97.19% to 100% if they get 1st, or 97.07% if they don't. Solar has a 4.1% chance to win ----going from 4.3% to 79.93% if they get 1st, or 1.07% if they don't. Trap has a 3.63% chance to win ----going from 5.59% to 97.11% if they get 1st, or 2.15% if they don't. Dark has a 3.59% chance to win ----going from 51.9% to 100% if they get 1st, or 50.11% if they don't. Dear has a 3.4% chance to win ----going from 18.49% to 99.93% if they get 1st, or 15.62% if they don't. ByuL has a 2.97% chance to win ----going from 90.82% to 100% if they get 1st, or 90.54% if they don't. Rogue has a 2.54% chance to win ----going from 64.72% to 100% if they get 1st, or 63.8% if they don't. herO has a 2.52% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Life has a 2.28% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Dream has a 2.04% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Bbyong has a 2.03% chance to win ----going from 3.17% to 95.41% if they get 1st, or 1.26% if they don't. HyuN has a 1.84% chance to win ----going from 27.27% to 99.99% if they get 1st, or 25.9% if they don't. FanTaSy has a 1.79% chance to win ----going from 35.93% to 100% if they get 1st, or 34.76% if they don't. Curious has a 1.43% chance to win ----going from 2.03% to 84.34% if they get 1st, or 0.83% if they don't. MyuNgSiK has a 1.29% chance to win ----going from 11.99% to 99.98% if they get 1st, or 10.85% if they don't. GuMiho has a 1.22% chance to win ----going from 5.3% to 99.88% if they get 1st, or 4.13% if they don't. Sacsri has a 1.06% chance to win ----going from 0.36% to 27.34% if they get 1st, or 0.07% if they don't. Flash has a 0.97% chance to win ----going from 0.29% to 25.28% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't. MMA has a 0.83% chance to win ----going from 0.8% to 71.11% if they get 1st, or 0.21% if they don't. Pigbaby has a 0.77% chance to win ----going from 0.07% to 7.87% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Cure has a 0.76% chance to win ----going from 0.11% to 12.26% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Hurricane has a 0.64% chance to win ----going from 0.08% to 11.21% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Bomber has a 0.63% chance to win ----going from 0.45% to 54.8% if they get 1st, or 0.1% if they don't. San has a 0.57% chance to win ----going from 0.48% to 57.9% if they get 1st, or 0.15% if they don't. Losira has a 0.51% chance to win ----going from 0.03% to 5.15% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Super has a 0.49% chance to win ----going from 0.43% to 67.98% if they get 1st, or 0.1% if they don't. Impact has a 0.45% chance to win ----going from 0.02% to 4.53% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Trust has a 0.44% chance to win ----going from 0.02% to 4.08% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. jjakji has a 0.41% chance to win ----going from 0.03% to 6.19% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. First has a 0.41% chance to win ----going from 0.05% to 11.54% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. sKyHigh has a 0.34% chance to win ----going from 0.03% to 7.94% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Armani has a 0.3% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 2.22% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Patience has a 0.2% chance to win ----going from 0.27% to 67.81% if they get 1st, or 0.14% if they don't. Stork has a 0.17% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.9% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. aLive has a 0.17% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 2.65% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Symbol has a 0.15% chance to win ----going from 0.02% to 12.82% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Hack has a 0.13% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 2.96% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Panic has a 0.08% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 2.82% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sleep has a 0.05% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.96% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. KeeN has a 0.04% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 3.73% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.
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This year is quite different from the last one with the big WCS change and two big leagues in Korea. Foreigners are basically screwed and the top 16 is mostly people doing just well in Korea with the expections of Polt and ForGG reaping the WCS, Parting winning every possible foreinger event and Zest somehow being there only because of the IEM WC. On one hand it is probably much more fair and we get the highest possible level of competition for Blizzcon, on the other it seems much less exciting.
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On July 16 2015 01:59 opisska wrote:
This year is quite different from the last one with the big WCS change and two big leagues in Korea. Foreigners are basically screwed and the top 16 is mostly people doing just well in Korea with the expections of Polt and ForGG reaping the WCS, Parting winning every possible foreinger event and Zest somehow being there only because of the IEM WC. On one hand it is probably much more fair and we get the highest possible level of competition for Blizzcon, on the other it seems much less exciting.
Surely you mean Polt and Hydra, ForGG (assuming he keeps on playing like he did recently) has little to no chance to get to the top16 (and even if he starts playing godly, he'd still have to win WCS to begin with). But yeah the battle for the last spots feel less exciting/close than last year, although I have the feeling Lilbow and Bunny will bring in some excitement with WCS S3
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Polt is the only one in the top16 undeserving imo.
Hydra definitely has the skill to contend with the top Koreans, Polt - not anymore
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On July 16 2015 02:52 sharkie wrote:
Polt is the only one in the top16 undeserving imo.
Hydra definitely has the skill to contend with the top Koreans, Polt - not anymore
In one season Polt defeated Hydra, in the other it was the other way around. That doesn't look to me like Hydra was so much better. Polt always seems weak against weak oponents, it has been like that since forever. That doesn't mean he can't do well in big competition.
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On July 16 2015 02:54 opisska wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 02:52 sharkie wrote:
Polt is the only one in the top16 undeserving imo.
Hydra definitely has the skill to contend with the top Koreans, Polt - not anymore In one season Polt defeated Hydra, in the other it was the other way around. That doesn't look to me like Hydra was so much better. Polt always seems weak against weak oponents, it has been like that since forever. That doesn't mean he can't do well in big competition.
If you watched that final you'd know that hydra lost the series several times.
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On July 16 2015 03:22 sharkie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 02:54 opisska wrote:On July 16 2015 02:52 sharkie wrote:
Polt is the only one in the top16 undeserving imo.
Hydra definitely has the skill to contend with the top Koreans, Polt - not anymore In one season Polt defeated Hydra, in the other it was the other way around. That doesn't look to me like Hydra was so much better. Polt always seems weak against weak oponents, it has been like that since forever. That doesn't mean he can't do well in big competition. If you watched that final you'd know that hydra lost the series several times.
I watched the final live yet I have no idea what point are you trying to make.
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On July 16 2015 03:28 opisska wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 03:22 sharkie wrote:On July 16 2015 02:54 opisska wrote:On July 16 2015 02:52 sharkie wrote:
Polt is the only one in the top16 undeserving imo.
Hydra definitely has the skill to contend with the top Koreans, Polt - not anymore In one season Polt defeated Hydra, in the other it was the other way around. That doesn't look to me like Hydra was so much better. Polt always seems weak against weak oponents, it has been like that since forever. That doesn't mean he can't do well in big competition. If you watched that final you'd know that hydra lost the series several times. I watched the final live yet I have no idea what point are you trying to make.
That hydra was a lot better and Polt only got lucky hydra totally threw the series several times?
Hell, Polt should have lost to Bunny in the semis. If Bunny were Korean, Polt would have never sniffed the final.
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On July 16 2015 03:46 sharkie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 03:28 opisska wrote:On July 16 2015 03:22 sharkie wrote:On July 16 2015 02:54 opisska wrote:On July 16 2015 02:52 sharkie wrote:
Polt is the only one in the top16 undeserving imo.
Hydra definitely has the skill to contend with the top Koreans, Polt - not anymore In one season Polt defeated Hydra, in the other it was the other way around. That doesn't look to me like Hydra was so much better. Polt always seems weak against weak oponents, it has been like that since forever. That doesn't mean he can't do well in big competition. If you watched that final you'd know that hydra lost the series several times. I watched the final live yet I have no idea what point are you trying to make. That hydra was a lot better and Polt only got lucky hydra totally threw the series several times? Hell, Polt should have lost to Bunny in the semis. If Bunny were Korean, Polt would have never sniffed the final.
I don't subscribe to this notion of "being better". If you lose 3 games in a row, you are clearly not commandingly better than your oponent. Throwing games is not a sign of a good player.
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On July 16 2015 01:59 opisska wrote:
This year is quite different from the last one with the big WCS change and two big leagues in Korea. Foreigners are basically screwed and the top 16 is mostly people doing just well in Korea with the expections of Polt and ForGG reaping the WCS, Parting winning every possible foreinger event and Zest somehow being there only because of the IEM WC. On one hand it is probably much more fair and we get the highest possible level of competition for Blizzcon, on the other it seems much less exciting.
I said this when the format was first announced. The regional requirements for WCS SOUND good until you realize that with 2 Korean leagues (which for the sake of the Korean scene I'm glad they exist) its completely pointless. No foreigner was going to make it threw, hell no one from WCS will likely make it in outside of the champions.
Here's hoping for an even more improved format in 2016
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On July 16 2015 03:53 chipmonklord17 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 01:59 opisska wrote:
This year is quite different from the last one with the big WCS change and two big leagues in Korea. Foreigners are basically screwed and the top 16 is mostly people doing just well in Korea with the expections of Polt and ForGG reaping the WCS, Parting winning every possible foreinger event and Zest somehow being there only because of the IEM WC. On one hand it is probably much more fair and we get the highest possible level of competition for Blizzcon, on the other it seems much less exciting. I said this when the format was first announced. The regional requirements for WCS SOUND good until you realize that with 2 Korean leagues (which for the sake of the Korean scene I'm glad they exist) its completely pointless. No foreigner was going to make it threw, hell no one from WCS will likely make it in outside of the champions. Here's hoping for an even more improved format in 2016
WCS EU/US format is fine. It's the foreigner's own fault if they can not stay consistent. They get enough points from all the tournaments for at least one of them to make Blizzcon but each of Bunny, Snute and Lilbow start to fail suddenly.
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On July 16 2015 03:55 sharkie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 03:53 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 16 2015 01:59 opisska wrote:
This year is quite different from the last one with the big WCS change and two big leagues in Korea. Foreigners are basically screwed and the top 16 is mostly people doing just well in Korea with the expections of Polt and ForGG reaping the WCS, Parting winning every possible foreinger event and Zest somehow being there only because of the IEM WC. On one hand it is probably much more fair and we get the highest possible level of competition for Blizzcon, on the other it seems much less exciting. I said this when the format was first announced. The regional requirements for WCS SOUND good until you realize that with 2 Korean leagues (which for the sake of the Korean scene I'm glad they exist) its completely pointless. No foreigner was going to make it threw, hell no one from WCS will likely make it in outside of the champions. Here's hoping for an even more improved format in 2016 WCS EU/US format is fine. It's the foreigner's own fault if they can not stay consistent. They get enough points from all the tournaments for at least one of them to make Blizzcon but each of Bunny, Snute and Lilbow start to fail suddenly.
The format is absolutely not fine. There is no reason why exclusively the champion gets seeded into the next season when neither Korean league follow that format. It artificially inflates the Korean's points for no reason. Also all of the regions need a better challenger system. One best of 5 isn't enough to decide your fate for an entire season, when one season basically changes your entire year. The return of groups or a full tournament/up and downs should be the standard across all regions. Hell there should BE a standard across all regions. Like if the league has X players than Y amount need to be seeded into the next season.
And WCS (read WCS + SSL + GSL) need to be weighed even more than WCS partnered tournaments. I like Zest/Dark and they're probably much better than most players than most below them, but their WCS performances aren't good and they shouldn't be ranked so highly in the system off of partnered events when you have a player like Bunny who has multiple ro4 performances and is in jeopardy of not being at Blizzcon
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WCS Predictor 2015
IEM Shenzhen Open Bracket IEM Shenzhen Open Bracket in ~ Losira has a 88.76% chance to win ----going from 0.07% to 0.07% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't. YongHwa has a 85.02% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Alicia has a 75.51% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. SuperNova has a 73.67% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Seed has a 72.98% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.  Cyan has a 50.74% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Saber has a 27.84% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.  Bistork has a 25.49% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [Ro16 Groups] + Heart vs TY in in IEM Shenzhen round of 16. Heart is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 58.65% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose. TY is at 10.96% Blizzcon Chances, with a 71.84% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 12.32%, or 7.51% if they lose. Rain,  Snute, and Classic in in IEM Shenzhen round of 16. Rain has the #1 Headband. Rain is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 64.7% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Classic is at 99.94% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.99%, or 99.85% if they lose. Snute is at 5.57% Blizzcon Chances, with a 45.12% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 6.9%, or 4.48% if they lose. herO, Jim, and  uThermal in in IEM Shenzhen round of 16. herO is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 68.74% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. uThermal is at 0.38% Blizzcon Chances, with a 57.36% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.49%, or 0.22% if they lose. Jim is at 0.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 39.86% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.12%, or 0.02% if they lose. PartinG, XY, and  Kelazhur in in IEM Shenzhen round of 16. PartinG is at 100% Blizzcon Chances, with a 85.4% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 100%, or 100% if they lose. Kelazhur is at 0.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 31.82% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.06%, or 0.02% if they lose. XY is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 29.87% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose. PartinG has a 23.29% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Rain has a 17.8% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. Classic has a 17.09% chance to win ----going from 99.94% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.93% if they don't. herO has a 11.48% chance to win ----going from 100% to 100% if they get 1st, or 100% if they don't. TY has a 8.74% chance to win ----going from 10.96% to 24.43% if they get 1st, or 9.68% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + Snute has a 6.28% chance to win ----going from 5.57% to 12.35% if they get 1st, or 5.12% if they don't. uThermal has a 3.47% chance to win ----going from 0.38% to 1.39% if they get 1st, or 0.34% if they don't. Heart has a 2.5% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.02% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Losira has a 2.33% chance to win ----going from 0.07% to 0.39% if they get 1st, or 0.06% if they don't. Jim has a 1.88% chance to win ----going from 0.06% to 0.56% if they get 1st, or 0.05% if they don't. SuperNova has a 1.37% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. YongHwa has a 1.25% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Seed has a 1.13% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Alicia has a 0.68% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Kelazhur has a 0.55% chance to win ----going from 0.03% to 0.33% if they get 1st, or 0.03% if they don't. XY has a 0.16% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.
WCS Predictor 2015
DreamHack Valencia Day 1 DreamHack Valencia in ~ FanTaSy has a 7.97% chance to win ----going from 35.68% to 78.01% if they get 1st, or 32.01% if they don't. GuMiho has a 6.91% chance to win ----going from 5.11% to 17.57% if they get 1st, or 4.18% if they don't.  Lilbow has a 6.5% chance to win ----going from 26.03% to 57.9% if they get 1st, or 23.82% if they don't. HyuN has a 6.47% chance to win ----going from 26.94% to 56.7% if they get 1st, or 24.88% if they don't.  Bunny has a 4.93% chance to win ----going from 26.34% to 66.4% if they get 1st, or 24.26% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] + MarineLorD has a 4.91% chance to win ----going from 3.01% to 8.01% if they get 1st, or 2.75% if they don't. TaeJa has a 4.84% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Sacsri has a 4.55% chance to win ----going from 0.33% to 1.39% if they get 1st, or 0.28% if they don't. PtitDrogo has a 4.09% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.02% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.  MaNa has a 4.04% chance to win ----going from 0.59% to 2.56% if they get 1st, or 0.51% if they don't. San has a 4.01% chance to win ----going from 0.45% to 1.67% if they get 1st, or 0.4% if they don't. TRUE has a 3.79% chance to win ----going from 0.46% to 3.87% if they get 1st, or 0.32% if they don't. Curious has a 3.53% chance to win ----going from 1.91% to 6.9% if they get 1st, or 1.73% if they don't. Leenock has a 2.77% chance to win ----going from 0.06% to 0.87% if they get 1st, or 0.04% if they don't. Patience has a 2.72% chance to win ----going from 0.25% to 1.44% if they get 1st, or 0.22% if they don't. Pigbaby has a 2.68% chance to win ----going from 0.06% to 0.52% if they get 1st, or 0.05% if they don't. Terminator has a 2.64% chance to win ----going from 0.03% to 0.48% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't. viOLet has a 2.39% chance to win ----going from 0.18% to 1.32% if they get 1st, or 0.15% if they don't.  Zanster has a 1.88% chance to win ----going from 0.1% to 0.72% if they get 1st, or 0.09% if they don't. Harstem has a 1.82% chance to win ----going from 0.57% to 2.32% if they get 1st, or 0.53% if they don't.  HuK has a 1.77% chance to win ----going from 0.06% to 0.68% if they get 1st, or 0.05% if they don't. HerO has a 1.75% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. Ryung has a 1.7% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.  Serral has a 1.58% chance to win ----going from 0.16% to 0.93% if they get 1st, or 0.15% if they don't. Symbol has a 1.39% chance to win ----going from 0.02% to 0.2% if they get 1st, or 0.02% if they don't.  Verdi has a 1.3% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Ret has a 1.29% chance to win ----going from 0.09% to 0.59% if they get 1st, or 0.09% if they don't.  TLO has a 0.99% chance to win ----going from 0.82% to 5.53% if they get 1st, or 0.77% if they don't. Dayshi has a 0.92% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.04% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. MorroW has a 0.74% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.01% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't. PsiOniC has a 0.64% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. DnS has a 0.63% chance to win ----going from 0.01% to 0.06% if they get 1st, or 0.01% if they don't.  Blysk has a 0.51% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Jona has a 0.32% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.  Majestic has a 0.32% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't.  Arium has a 0.21% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Lambo has a 0.19% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. MiNiMaTh has a 0.1% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. jeysen has a 0.06% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Botvinnik has a 0.03% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. Chubz has a 0.02% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. FeaR has a 0.01% chance to win ----going from 0% to 0% if they get 1st, or 0% if they don't. viOLet vs Ryung in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. viOLet is at 0.18% Blizzcon Chances, with a 80.55% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.2%, or 0.09% if they lose. Ryung is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 77.22% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. MorroW vs FanTaSy in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. MorroW is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 68.61% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0% if they lose. FanTaSy is at 35.68% Blizzcon Chances, with a 89.52% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 37.08%, or 23.68% if they lose. Verdi vs Sacsri in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. Verdi is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 73.6% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose. Sacsri is at 0.33% Blizzcon Chances, with a 85.37% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.36%, or 0.18% if they lose. Bunny vs Lilbow in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. Bunny is at 26.34% Blizzcon Chances, with a 83.81% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 27.8%, or 18.78% if they lose. Lilbow is at 26.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 84.92% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 27.31%, or 18.82% if they lose. Symbol vs Serral in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. Symbol is at 0.02% Blizzcon Chances, with a 75.83% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.02%, or 0.01% if they lose. Serral is at 0.16% Blizzcon Chances, with a 79.34% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.18%, or 0.11% if they lose. MaNa vs Pigbaby in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. MaNa is at 0.59% Blizzcon Chances, with a 81.95% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.65%, or 0.31% if they lose. Pigbaby is at 0.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 80.36% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.07%, or 0.03% if they lose. San vs PtitDrogo in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. San is at 0.45% Blizzcon Chances, with a 82.26% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.49%, or 0.28% if they lose. PtitDrogo is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 82.39% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose. HerO vs MarineLorD in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. HerO is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 76.04% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose. MarineLorD is at 3.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 85.01% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 3.19%, or 1.96% if they lose. GuMiho vs Harstem in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. GuMiho is at 5.11% Blizzcon Chances, with a 88.42% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 5.4%, or 2.88% if they lose. Harstem is at 0.57% Blizzcon Chances, with a 74.72% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.62%, or 0.41% if they lose. Dayshi vs TRUE in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. Dayshi is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 73.05% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose. TRUE is at 0.46% Blizzcon Chances, with a 84.19% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.51%, or 0.15% if they lose. TLO vs Terminator in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. TLO is at 0.82% Blizzcon Chances, with a 73.25% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.89%, or 0.62% if they lose. Terminator is at 0.03% Blizzcon Chances, with a 81.87% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.04%, or 0.01% if they lose. Curious vs Jona in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. Curious is at 1.91% Blizzcon Chances, with a 85.66% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 2.01%, or 1.34% if they lose. Jona is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 65.47% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose. TaeJa vs Ret in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. TaeJa is at 0.01% Blizzcon Chances, with a 85.53% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.01%, or 0.01% if they lose. Ret is at 0.09% Blizzcon Chances, with a 75.03% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.1%, or 0.06% if they lose. Leenock vs HuK in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. Leenock is at 0.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 81.08% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.08%, or 0.02% if they lose. HuK is at 0.06% Blizzcon Chances, with a 77.7% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.07%, or 0.03% if they lose. HyuN vs Blysk in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. HyuN is at 26.94% Blizzcon Chances, with a 87.78% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 27.89%, or 20.07% if they lose. Blysk is at 0% Blizzcon Chances, with a 67.58% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0%, or 0% if they lose. Patience vs Zanster in in DreamHack Valencia round of 64. Patience is at 0.25% Blizzcon Chances, with a 80.5% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.28%, or 0.15% if they lose. Zanster is at 0.1% Blizzcon Chances, with a 78.41% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 0.11%, or 0.05% if they lose.
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Where did aligulac get so much confidence in Fanta? There are like five players I would think to win the thing before him.
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On July 16 2015 06:09 opisska wrote:
Where did aligulac get so much confidence in Fanta? There are like five players I would think to win the thing before him.
Who? Fantasy is my top pick too.
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On July 16 2015 06:11 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 06:09 opisska wrote:
Where did aligulac get so much confidence in Fanta? There are like five players I would think to win the thing before him. Who? Fantasy is my top pick too.
Really, the guy who never won anything in SC2 and whose unbeliavble position in WCS points is based only upon doing rounds of all possible tournaments and never getting anywhere (except for one finals). My question stands, how the hell does Aligulac and you think about him so highly? I haven't seem him play so much, but at every occasion he seemed pretty lost and died to dumb things.
From the player lineup, I would definitely rate HyuN, Curious and Gumiho above him and there is like ten another Koreans who can reasonably beat him on any day (and then there is MarineKing ...), not to mention that the foreigner lineup ain't that bad edither.
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On July 16 2015 06:23 opisska wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 06:11 Die4Ever wrote:On July 16 2015 06:09 opisska wrote:
Where did aligulac get so much confidence in Fanta? There are like five players I would think to win the thing before him. Who? Fantasy is my top pick too. Really, the guy who never won anything in SC2 and whose unbeliavble position in WCS points is based only upon doing rounds of all possible tournaments and never getting anywhere (except for one finals). My question stands, how the hell does Aligulac and you think about him so highly? I haven't seem him play so much, but at every occasion he seemed pretty lost and died to dumb things. From the player lineup, I would definitely rate HyuN, Curious and Gumiho above him and there is like ten another Koreans who can reasonably beat him on any day (and then there is MarineKing ...), not to mention that the foreigner lineup ain't that bad edither.
MarineKing isn't going. Curious, Hyun, Gumiho, and TRUE make sense though. Lilbow and Bunny I guess it's possible. I still put Fantasy at least at top 3 here. Not like these other players have accomplished much more than Fantasy lately.
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Curious got Ro4 GSL not long ago, that's nothing to ignore. The rest are not current champions, but there are so many players who have been to so many DH-like tourneys and they just know their business. And for example Gumi can imho beat absolutely anyone if he decides to fo so.
And I just noticed that Taeja is apparently coming, that would be hilarious if he won that out of the blue, just because it is in July 
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EPT
