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On March 16 2012 21:51 Acritter wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 21:47 Utinni wrote:On March 16 2012 21:40 neoghaleon55 wrote:On March 16 2012 21:37 tomatriedes wrote:
It does confuse me that DRG whines about toss so much when he loses more to terrans these days. Maybe his ladder games are different. He even whined during his GSL championship acceptance speech lol gotta love DRG TBH everyone complains about every match up, it's really how loud you can voice it or if anyone actually listens. Not Stephano, also known as "My race is too strong against Protoss." I think he's exaggerating a little, because we haven't seen anyone else do what Stephano does. Might not even be possible for anyone else to do.
MVP also said that 1-1-1 is too strong vs Toss; and I think a bunch of people of other races were arguing that Zerg was weak, when the game came out.
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So, while Terrans defend their race furiously ( At least these coule of people from the last pages ), hasn't anyone checked the latest W/L graphs of the races? In Korea, Zerg was AGAIN close to 40% W/L against Terran, with never being actually at 50% or over.
Is this because of the fact that.. I don't know? The Zergs players in Code A are so bad?
Blizzard hasn't really done anything to the real problem of ZvT, which is the marine. With the microcababilities of the top-tier Terrans, marine becomes a unit which beats every single Zerg unit cost-effective. Good split against banelings and they're done for, the same against infestors. It's always funny to see Terran 200/200 which consist of 7 siegetanks, 80 marines, a thor, and the rest in medivacs if you count in the 80~ish scvs.
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Have you even thought about the amount of games played?!?!? So Kas is bad for having 60% winrates in all matchups, WITH OVER 1000 games played! If i win 1 time and have a 100% winrate, doesn't mean im a god at SC2!!! Think about the amount of games next time omfg. And 60-64% is very good imo.
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Well we all know that Korean Terran's have been dominant at GSL code S level for ages. There have been more code s Terran players by a fair ammount so these statistics will not surprise most. Not to say that Zergs have not been successful though as Zerg as a race has nearly won as many code S championships as Terran.
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To take these stats to discuss about the actual balance or metagame situation is not clever. Too many old games are taken into account here, maybe even out of the open seasons back in 2010. These were played in a total different balance eviroment and on total different maps. (Remember steppes of war being part of the GSL mappool for the first 3 seasons LOL!)
look at the actual statistics and then analyse them. You'll get much more viable information then
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On March 16 2012 21:58 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 21:51 Acritter wrote:On March 16 2012 21:47 Utinni wrote:On March 16 2012 21:40 neoghaleon55 wrote:On March 16 2012 21:37 tomatriedes wrote:
It does confuse me that DRG whines about toss so much when he loses more to terrans these days. Maybe his ladder games are different. He even whined during his GSL championship acceptance speech lol gotta love DRG TBH everyone complains about every match up, it's really how loud you can voice it or if anyone actually listens. Not Stephano, also known as "My race is too strong against Protoss." I think he's exaggerating a little, because we haven't seen anyone else do what Stephano does. Might not even be possible for anyone else to do. MVP also said that 1-1-1 is too strong vs Toss; and I think a bunch of people of other races were arguing that Zerg was weak, when the game came out.
when was that? mid 2011? quoting progamers that they mightve even said jokingly and a long time ago does not support your argument. everyone whines about every race and tactics that some race can use thats just the way it is nowadays because people refuse to accept they might not be as good as the other person and when it comes to this thread tournament results dont reflect on balance like wtf those win rates are going to drop down even 60 % at a high level tournament such as GSL is sick good
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On March 16 2012 22:21 KAmaKAsa wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 21:58 Big J wrote:On March 16 2012 21:51 Acritter wrote:On March 16 2012 21:47 Utinni wrote:On March 16 2012 21:40 neoghaleon55 wrote:On March 16 2012 21:37 tomatriedes wrote:
It does confuse me that DRG whines about toss so much when he loses more to terrans these days. Maybe his ladder games are different. He even whined during his GSL championship acceptance speech lol gotta love DRG TBH everyone complains about every match up, it's really how loud you can voice it or if anyone actually listens. Not Stephano, also known as "My race is too strong against Protoss." I think he's exaggerating a little, because we haven't seen anyone else do what Stephano does. Might not even be possible for anyone else to do. MVP also said that 1-1-1 is too strong vs Toss; and I think a bunch of people of other races were arguing that Zerg was weak, when the game came out. when was that? mid 2011? quoting progamers that they mightve even said jokingly and a long time ago does not support your argument. everyone whines about every race and tactics that some race can use thats just the way it is nowadays because people refuse to accept they might not be as good as the other person and when it comes to this thread tournament results dont reflect on balance like wtf those win rates are going to drop down even 60 % at a high level tournament such as GSL is sick good
My really wild guess would be, that this was at the time when fucking 1-1-1 killed Protoss all the time.
But really... It's just a "wild" guess...
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On March 16 2012 22:10 TeeTS wrote:
To take these stats to discuss about the actual balance or metagame situation is not clever. Too many old games are taken into account here, maybe even out of the open seasons back in 2010. These were played in a total different balance eviroment and on total different maps. (Remember steppes of war being part of the GSL mappool for the first 3 seasons LOL!)
look at the actual statistics and then analyse them. You'll get much more viable information then
Your post is so controversial. If we take latest 30 games as data you will say the sample size is too small. If we take 100 games you'll probably say games are too old.
I mean, cmon, why there are always some people who jump in the middle of discussion and say we're all wrong and shouldn't be discussing. Mostly those, to whom discussing balance is 'tabu' or whining, who are in complete denial and think blizzard doing everything perfectly. The game is not balanced yet (but its close to). Why can't we discuss it and try to find some solutions. Blizzard reads TL, they may take our advices. Afterall, they're humans too, there might something they overlooked.
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On March 16 2012 22:21 KAmaKAsa wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 21:58 Big J wrote:On March 16 2012 21:51 Acritter wrote:On March 16 2012 21:47 Utinni wrote:On March 16 2012 21:40 neoghaleon55 wrote:On March 16 2012 21:37 tomatriedes wrote:
It does confuse me that DRG whines about toss so much when he loses more to terrans these days. Maybe his ladder games are different. He even whined during his GSL championship acceptance speech lol gotta love DRG TBH everyone complains about every match up, it's really how loud you can voice it or if anyone actually listens. Not Stephano, also known as "My race is too strong against Protoss." I think he's exaggerating a little, because we haven't seen anyone else do what Stephano does. Might not even be possible for anyone else to do. MVP also said that 1-1-1 is too strong vs Toss; and I think a bunch of people of other races were arguing that Zerg was weak, when the game came out. when was that? mid 2011? quoting progamers that they mightve even said jokingly and a long time ago does not support your argument. everyone whines about every race and tactics that some race can use thats just the way it is nowadays because people refuse to accept they might not be as good as the other person and when it comes to this thread tournament results dont reflect on balance like wtf those win rates are going to drop down even 60 % at a high level tournament such as GSL is sick good
MVP didnt say it jokingly, it was before the Immortal patch rax nerf, map changes...
I don't know what you want to tell me with "support your argument". I didn't state any argument, apart from the implied "not every progamer is a whiner". And no, as showed, not everyone whines about everything all the time. Only a vocal minority of progamers whine around, most of them actually try to improve their play instead of commenting on balance, or do it in a very cautious way.
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Erm, I'm not trying to be sarcastic here, but can someone tell me why there's such a discrepancy in the number of games played for each matchup, (for DongRaeGu) but people are treating the percentages as if they're not?
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On March 16 2012 22:03 TimeRunnerS wrote:
Have you even thought about the amount of games played?!?!? So Kas is bad for having 60% winrates in all matchups, WITH OVER 1000 games played! If i win 1 time and have a 100% winrate, doesn't mean im a god at SC2!!! Think about the amount of games next time omfg. And 60-64% is very good imo.
The error in on the winrate measurement is proportional to the Sqrt(1/n), where 'n' is the number of games played.
So, the error for different total number of games played:
50 games: 14%
100 games: 10%
200 games: 7.1%
1000 games: 3.2%
There is diminishing returns on error reduction for increasing the total sample size.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error#Calculations_assuming_random_sampling
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On March 16 2012 22:27 bokeevboke wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 22:10 TeeTS wrote:
To take these stats to discuss about the actual balance or metagame situation is not clever. Too many old games are taken into account here, maybe even out of the open seasons back in 2010. These were played in a total different balance eviroment and on total different maps. (Remember steppes of war being part of the GSL mappool for the first 3 seasons LOL!)
look at the actual statistics and then analyse them. You'll get much more viable information then Your post is so controversial. If we take latest 30 games as data you will say the sample size is too small. If we take 100 games you'll probably say games are too old. I mean, cmon, why there are always some people who jump in the middle of discussion and say we're all wrong and shouldn't be discussing. Mostly those, to whom discussing balance is 'tabu' or whining, who are in complete denial and think blizzard doing everything perfectly. The game is not balanced yet (but its close to). Why can't we discuss it and try to find some solutions. Blizzard reads TL, they may take our advices. Afterall, they're humans too, there might something they overlooked.
But the problem is, the OP didn't write anything to show that there is an imbalance between Z and T. So what is there to discuss?
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On March 16 2012 22:30 Hulavuta wrote:
Erm, I'm not trying to be sarcastic here, but can someone tell me why there's such a discrepancy in the number of games played for each matchup, (for DongRaeGu) but people are treating the percentages as if they're not?
Cuz there wasn't many P in the GSL until the recent season.
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Lets not forget that MMA > DRG so statistically MMA should always have the better stats... And did you not see MMA vs Zenio? MMA's multitasking is off the charts. And of course I'm pretty sure MVP who was once deemed as unbeatable just a few months ago is no slouch nor are the other players who are just almost about as good as them..
64% means your winning, lets not forget that DRG only won his first gsl tournament and is still a rising player, and lets not forget that code s terrans are a special rare breed of pure korean mechanics and dominance.
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On March 16 2012 14:29 Pocketpurple wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 11:14 neoghaleon55 wrote:Edit 1: On March 16 2012 11:24 Mentalizor wrote:
When you "only" have a 50 game sample (DRG's ZvT is 50games) small mistakes, missmicroes can easilly cost 2-5 games. if just 5 games a lost due to mistakes, that will alter your statistics by 10% which is pretty much. Get bigger samples before comparing statistics. They are just not viable to look at. The optimal minimum sample size is 20. Above 20, the n value does not relevantly contribute over all (n-1) to the statistics. I'm sure you remember from your AP stats class and college. The statistics presented in the OP are greater than 20 sample sizes and thus are relevant. Edit 2: Maybe presenting that article wasn't such a good idea as it only confuses people more. Let me try to explain this in easier terms to understand. So how about this...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation lol Statistics is very dependent on standard deviations which accounts for your confidence interval. Standard deviation (SI) uses an (N-1) factor, which contributes less and less as N gets larger. at 20 or above, N-1 is seen as negligible in mathematics terms. I actually use 20 or greater in my research and published works as well... it's quite well known. Haha, you claim to be a relatively high level statistician and then you say that as long as the sample size is above 20 it is relevant? That is a completely arbitrary number that differs on most textbooks and in most research. For instance, my textbook says that 30 is the minimum sample size to assume a normal distribution. Furthermore, you are ignoring countless factors that influence data, for instance, basic independence, or even..opponent skill level... This is silly.
I never said that you couldn't perform your fancy mathematics on this sample size. I just said there are too many variables to make it a trustworthy result with factors like: Mistakes, maps and spawns favoring one player over the other, enemy skill, metagame, blind counters, cheese and every little factor like that. If you had a huge sample those would somewhat fade away. But when only having 50games imagine if 4 games were cheese and 6 were blindcounters. I'm saying you just need a bigger size unless you somehow find variables that can count in every aspect of game. And finding a way to measure skill level of one player vs another is kind of hard in my opinion. But yeah, nice way to twist my words.
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On March 16 2012 22:31 Fubi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 22:27 bokeevboke wrote:On March 16 2012 22:10 TeeTS wrote:
To take these stats to discuss about the actual balance or metagame situation is not clever. Too many old games are taken into account here, maybe even out of the open seasons back in 2010. These were played in a total different balance eviroment and on total different maps. (Remember steppes of war being part of the GSL mappool for the first 3 seasons LOL!)
look at the actual statistics and then analyse them. You'll get much more viable information then Your post is so controversial. If we take latest 30 games as data you will say the sample size is too small. If we take 100 games you'll probably say games are too old. I mean, cmon, why there are always some people who jump in the middle of discussion and say we're all wrong and shouldn't be discussing. Mostly those, to whom discussing balance is 'tabu' or whining, who are in complete denial and think blizzard doing everything perfectly. The game is not balanced yet (but its close to). Why can't we discuss it and try to find some solutions. Blizzard reads TL, they may take our advices. Afterall, they're humans too, there might something they overlooked. But the problem is, the OP didn't write anything to show that there is an imbalance between Z and T. So what is there to discuss?
what you expect us to discuss?
Should we say smth like DRG-King of ZvT only 64%, good to know! lets just move on! I think no.
The point of the thread is that the best ZvTer has only 64% and most of Zergs have less than 50% which implies that zergs are doing poor against terrans. There might two reasons for that: either zergs are bad or ZvT is terran favoured, which is kinda related to balance. see?
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On March 16 2012 22:32 Fubi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 22:30 Hulavuta wrote:
Erm, I'm not trying to be sarcastic here, but can someone tell me why there's such a discrepancy in the number of games played for each matchup, (for DongRaeGu) but people are treating the percentages as if they're not? Cuz there wasn't many P in the GSL until the recent season.
No I mean like, he has 18 losses 32 wins for Terran, and that's 64 percent. But versus Protoss he only has 27 wins and 10 losses, just a bit less games played than his versus terran. But people treat the 72 percent as if it was the same number of games played as he played against Terran.
again, not trying to be sarcastic, I am just wondering why this is.
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On March 16 2012 22:34 Raid wrote:
Lets not forget that MMA > DRG so statistically MMA should always have the better stats... And did you not see MMA vs Zenio? MMA's multitasking is off the charts. And of course I'm pretty sure MVP who was once deemed as unbeatable just a few months ago is no slouch nor are the other players who are just almost about as good as them..
64% means your winning, lets not forget that DRG only won his first gsl tournament and is still a rising player, and lets not forget that code s terrans are a special rare breed of pure korean mechanics and dominance.
Just out of curiosity, what makes you think MMA>DRG?
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On March 16 2012 22:38 chosenkerrigan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 22:34 Raid wrote:
Lets not forget that MMA > DRG so statistically MMA should always have the better stats... And did you not see MMA vs Zenio? MMA's multitasking is off the charts. And of course I'm pretty sure MVP who was once deemed as unbeatable just a few months ago is no slouch nor are the other players who are just almost about as good as them..
64% means your winning, lets not forget that DRG only won his first gsl tournament and is still a rising player, and lets not forget that code s terrans are a special rare breed of pure korean mechanics and dominance. Just out of curiosity, what makes you think MMA>DRG?
Maybe because MMA just beat DRG in that blizz cup tournament a couple months ago?
Lets not forget every terran recently interviewed and other races have said MMA is the best terran in the world. Even nestea has said it. How can we doubt son of Boxer?
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based on 15 peoples statistics terran has a better chance of winning in tvz? or did i misunderstand something?
i think you need to look at the overall graphs for racewinrate in Korea to judge it like that.
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EPT
