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On December 13 2014 09:54 sibs wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2014 09:47 SC2Toastie wrote:On December 13 2014 09:43 sibs wrote:On December 13 2014 09:35 SC2Toastie wrote:On December 13 2014 09:24 sibs wrote:On December 13 2014 09:21 SC2Toastie wrote:On December 13 2014 09:11 sibs wrote:On December 13 2014 05:20 keglu wrote:On December 13 2014 05:15 sibs wrote:On December 13 2014 05:10 keglu wrote:
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I was interested who is considered Top Zerg now ouside of obvious like Soo and Life
BTW for Hot6ix winrates were
PvT 44–51 (46.32%)
PvZ 42–31 (57.53%)
TvZ 43–44 (49.43%)
Yea unfiltered stats are pretty bad, the random mismatches add a lot of noise, I'd like to see AntiRW update his stats and see if Zerg/Protoss are getting less rekt by T at the top. Initial data seems to point maps will not fix balance, so maybe blizzard should actually do something  . Both hot6ix and SL are basically only Korean pros. What do you want to filter? To me it seems : only good stats are ones fitting my agenda. Just being a korean pro does not make you a code S caliber player come on now, go and look at the people who attempted to qualify for these tournaments, there's quite a few players that I've never heard about such as http://aligulac.com/players/4735-SpeeD/ or http://aligulac.com/players/5203-Dynamite/ . There's a ton of data that points to T considerably stronger at the top. More tournament wins, almost double of P/Z individually..More qualified players. More players making deep runs into tournaments... This type of thing will only show when you filter for skill. The most recent majors are hero, sOs and Life, AFAIK. Since the patch. Yea the SSL qualifiers used a different map pool, all maps that are at least decent for Zerg. Maybe blizz will release a bunch of reaaaally zerg favored maps, would be interesting. I'm sorry, but your bias is showing. After a patch players need time to adapt. Also, it's not like Daybreak, Overgrowth and King Sejong (IIRC SSL map pool) are perfect maps. Add to that that balance in Top 3 is as perfect as you can ask for. Yes, sadly, they didn't manage to qualify, but with such a tiny sample and Top 3 being that balanced, that is no reason to cry imbaimba. Most recent results look really damn fair. Sorry. "Add to that that balance in Top 3 is as perfect as you can ask for. Yes, sadly, they didn't manage to qualify, but with such a tiny sample and Top 3 being that balanced, that is no reason to cry imbaimba." I don't even understand what you're trying to say. Balance in top3? SSL. Racial distribution in Top 3 of the brackets is near perfect. Top 3 on those brackets means close to nothing players got there beating 1 player or ZERO players in the case of aphrodite, are you being serious? DRG beat some protoss named "Stun". I really rather use tournament wins or deep tournament finishes (ro4) or Code S player winrates.
Aphrodite was not Top3, DRG won two games to be TOP3
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As usual a lot of people are arguing balance along very vague lines and the problem with using aliguiac or for that matter tournament results to argue balance actually do not even understand what they are arguing about.
Ok. First off. The level of play to discuss balance. Most arguments cannot even get off this most important question. So we have people quoting aliguiac of top 50 plays. Top 100 players. And god forbid, all games played at all levels and use this numbers as indication of balance. If minigun beat demuslim, should that result really counts for stats in discussion of balance. Sure, they will beat 99% of people posting in these boards, the diamonds and plats, but is their result really relevant? If not. Then whose results are relevant?
I don't play the game anymore but watches a lot of tournament. But very interested in the discussion of balance from a pure academic subject.
Now imagine this hypothetical experiment being set up. All zergs in the world play a game against each and every terran and Protoss in the world. Likewise for terran and Protoss players. Then the 3 players with the most wins for each race then plays a best of 1000 again the other 2 players. Now let's say the results is such. The P won 1002 games, the T won 999 games, the Z won 999 games. Then yes. You can infer that Protoss is indeed op at the very highest currently achieve able skill level. Now let's break down the numbers again. The P won 1000-0 against the Z. The Zerg won 999-1 against the T. The T won 998-2 against the P. Is the game balanced?
Now the experiment is repeated for the 2nd to the nth player for each race. The results will then be the balance level at that level of play. Oh wait. But some will argue that maybe there are 2 times as many Zerg players in the world as terran in the world and by probability of distribution, the match should be in terms of percentile. The number 5 terran should play the number 10 Zerg. 20:40, 100:200 etc. pronto? Agreed? Disagreed? Why this has implication? Because if 2 people arguing about balance with very specific design of experiment for determining balance, 100th vs 100th or 100th vs 200th in this case, bringing up say for example sOs beating marineking has next to zero or no meaning to balance discussion.
Ok. I guess at this juncture, some will say, only the best matter. Numero uno vs número uno. That should give us balance. I brought up this hypothesis before. Imagine in an alternate universe. At mid 2013, something changed. A meteor stuck earth and everyone on earth died except the South American and Central American. For the next 1.5 years, Major won every single tournament he attended with only American participation (which is what he did by winning god knows how many copa in a row). Well he and his other 2 South American z and p counterpart are the best in the diminished world. Therefore balance testing at the very highest level attainable by mankind shows that terran is OP. I'm sure no terrans on this thread would agree that this is the case during the blink era.
Does this mean we cannot discuss balance? Instead of the usual argument we have been hearing on this thread since the start, like cherry picking aliguiac data. Oh pro X beat pro Y when pro Y is so obviously the better players, race X won X number of tournaments in said period. Therefore it must be op. None of these points actually means anything. But many still think of it as gospel truths.
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So what are you getting at with that post? Good job on knowing how to set up and ideal and impossible experiment and think of unreasonable scenario's, but this does nothing to further this discussion, at all. The only thing I can infer is you stating we will never be able to statistically derive perfect balance everybody and impossible theories can agree on?
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SSL 2015 Season 1 Qualifiers
Updating from here since Liquipedia changed some stuff in the brackets.
Qualified players: http://i.gyazo.com/5665b30f7704f72732b4887385610535.png
Add Yonghwa for a total of 11P 12T 6Z
TvP = 41-55 (+0-2 for Terran)*
+ Show Spoiler [With Wildcard] +
TvZ = 51-45 (+0-2 for Terran, +0-4 for Zerg)*
+ Show Spoiler [With Wildcard] +53-47 (+0-3 for Terran, +0-5 for Zerg)*
ZvP = 51-45 (+0-3 for Zerg, +0-1 for Protoss)*
+ Show Spoiler [With Wildcard] +53-47 (+0-4 for Zerg, +0-3 for Protoss)*
8 PvP series (8W)
10 TvT series (11W)
0 ZvZ series (5W)
40 TvP series (41W)
41 TvZ series (43W)
40 ZvP series (44W)
203-213* PvX played (+10-14W)
212-223* TvX played (+8-12W)
185-200* ZvX played (+22-32W)
* Depending on the unknown scores of the loser for various series
(W) = Wildcard included
48 different Protoss players
50 different Terran players
37 different Zerg players
Bronze medals = 3P 3T 8Z
Notable absents (for whatever reason):
Protoss: Avenge, JYP, StarDust
Terran: ForGG, Mvp, Polt
Zerg: hitmaN, hyvaa, Hydra, Jaedong, Life (invited), viOLet
Recent notable retirements:
Protoss: Squirtle
Terran: none
Zerg: EffOrt, Golden, RorO, Sniper
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Wow 1 Zerg actually won his code S qualifier group...
In the meanwhile Apocalypse almost qualified.
Getting really depressing.
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On December 13 2014 22:16 TheDwf wrote:+ Show Spoiler +SSL 2015 Season 1 QualifiersUpdating from here since Liquipedia changed some stuff in the brackets. Qualified players: http://i.gyazo.com/5665b30f7704f72732b4887385610535.pngAdd Yonghwa for a total of 11P 12T 6Z TvP = 41-55 (+0-2 for Terran)* + Show Spoiler [With Wildcard] +TvZ = 51-45 (+0-2 for Terran, +0-4 for Zerg)* + Show Spoiler [With Wildcard] +53-47 (+0-3 for Terran, +0-5 for Zerg)* ZvP = 51-45 (+0-3 for Zerg, +0-1 for Protoss)* + Show Spoiler [With Wildcard] +53-47 (+0-4 for Zerg, +0-3 for Protoss)* 8 PvP series (8W) 10 TvT series (11W) 0 ZvZ series (5W) 40 TvP series (41W) 41 TvZ series (43W) 40 ZvP series (44W) 203-213* PvX played (+10-14W) 212-223* TvX played (+8-12W) 185-200* ZvX played (+22-32W) * Depending on the unknown scores of the loser for various series (W) = Wildcard included 48 different Protoss players 50 different Terran players 37 different Zerg players Bronze medals = 3P 3T 8Z Notable absents (for whatever reason): Protoss: Avenge, JYP, StarDust Terran: ForGG, Mvp, Polt Zerg: hitmaN, hyvaa, Hydra, Jaedong, Life (invited), viOLet Recent notable retirements: Protoss: Squirtle Terran: none Zerg: EffOrt, Golden, RorO, Sniper
GSL 2015 Season 1 Qualifiers
Qualified = 13T 12P 7Z
TvP = 41-50
TvZ = 52-41
ZvP = 42-44
12 PvP maps
32 TvT maps
14 ZvZ maps
39 TvP series
38 TvZ series
35 ZvP series
189 PvX maps played
216 TvX maps played
193 ZvX maps played
45 different Protoss players
53 different Terran players
38 different Zerg players
Bronze medals = 3P 5T 8Z
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What are those? OLD gsl of another balance patch? Are you another of those morons who advocate seasonal imbalance instead of balance?
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It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3.
Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that.
Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool?
On December 15 2014 19:52 Karpfen wrote:What are those?
If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1.
What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered.
I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at.
EDITED you edited the post
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On December 15 2014 19:56 SC2Toastie wrote:It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3. Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that. Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool? If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1. What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered. I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at. EDITED you edited the post
You realise in most of those qualifier groups there are only 3/4 decent players that can actually compete for a code S spot?
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On December 15 2014 20:01 mCon.Hephaistas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2014 19:56 SC2Toastie wrote:It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3. Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that. Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool? On December 15 2014 19:52 Karpfen wrote:What are those? If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1. What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered. I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at. EDITED you edited the post You realise in most of those qualifier groups there are only 3/4 decent players that can actually compete for a code S spot?
Yes, I do. I haven't looked at specifics, but it's notable that Zerg has performed a tiny margin below the other races in a couple of qualifiers and for quite a while. Dreampool obviously did nothing to help us in this, so it's something to keep an eye out on for sure.
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On December 15 2014 20:02 SC2Toastie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2014 20:01 mCon.Hephaistas wrote:On December 15 2014 19:56 SC2Toastie wrote:It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3. Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that. Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool? On December 15 2014 19:52 Karpfen wrote:What are those? If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1. What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered. I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at. EDITED you edited the post You realise in most of those qualifier groups there are only 3/4 decent players that can actually compete for a code S spot? Yes, I do. I haven't looked at specifics, but it's notable that Zerg has performed a tiny margin below the other races in a couple of qualifiers and for quite a while. Dreampool obviously did nothing to help us in this, so it's something to keep an eye out on for sure.
"wait and see" is normally a bad idea if the first season of the two biggest tournaments of the year are played with the current mappool. (Or won't they? Maybe the tournament organizers want to see some Zerg in Ro8 and adhust the mappool themselves? During #Dreampool that should be allowed?)
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Czech Republic12133 Posts
On December 15 2014 20:01 mCon.Hephaistas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2014 19:56 SC2Toastie wrote:It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3. Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that. Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool? On December 15 2014 19:52 Karpfen wrote:What are those? If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1. What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered. I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at. EDITED you edited the post You realise in most of those qualifier groups there are only 3/4 decent players that can actually compete for a code S spot?
That's why I think people qualified for 1 tourney were not supposed to qualify for 2nd, because there are many good Korean players. It's hard time to be a Korean SC2 player nowadays  With current ladder and map pool not helping, that's for sure ><
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On December 15 2014 20:05 Swisslink wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2014 20:02 SC2Toastie wrote:On December 15 2014 20:01 mCon.Hephaistas wrote:On December 15 2014 19:56 SC2Toastie wrote:It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3. Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that. Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool? On December 15 2014 19:52 Karpfen wrote:What are those? If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1. What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered. I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at. EDITED you edited the post You realise in most of those qualifier groups there are only 3/4 decent players that can actually compete for a code S spot? Yes, I do. I haven't looked at specifics, but it's notable that Zerg has performed a tiny margin below the other races in a couple of qualifiers and for quite a while. Dreampool obviously did nothing to help us in this, so it's something to keep an eye out on for sure. "wait and see" is normally a bad idea if the first season of the two biggest tournaments of the year are played with the current mappool. (Or won't they? Maybe the tournament organizers want to see some Zerg in Ro8 and adhust the mappool themselves? During #Dreampool that should be allowed?)
The map pool for WCS 2015 Season 1 is yet to be announced
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Czech Republic12133 Posts
On December 15 2014 20:07 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2014 20:05 Swisslink wrote:On December 15 2014 20:02 SC2Toastie wrote:On December 15 2014 20:01 mCon.Hephaistas wrote:On December 15 2014 19:56 SC2Toastie wrote:It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3. Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that. Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool? On December 15 2014 19:52 Karpfen wrote:What are those? If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1. What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered. I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at. EDITED you edited the post You realise in most of those qualifier groups there are only 3/4 decent players that can actually compete for a code S spot? Yes, I do. I haven't looked at specifics, but it's notable that Zerg has performed a tiny margin below the other races in a couple of qualifiers and for quite a while. Dreampool obviously did nothing to help us in this, so it's something to keep an eye out on for sure. "wait and see" is normally a bad idea if the first season of the two biggest tournaments of the year are played with the current mappool. (Or won't they? Maybe the tournament organizers want to see some Zerg in Ro8 and adhust the mappool themselves? During #Dreampool that should be allowed?) The map pool for WCS 2015 Season 1 is yet to be announced
Yeah, but qualification was on old maps, which is stupid, wrong and stuff. Last few weeks were really bad managed from my view. Old map pool, dreampool, no new maps, but WCS 2015 points and qualifications?! WTF?
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On December 15 2014 19:56 SC2Toastie wrote:It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3. Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that. Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool? If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1. What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered. I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at. EDITED you edited the post
Just to put it into perspective, S2 GSL qualifiers were similar for Terran this year. Tons of third places and a voluntary dropout from Code S led to the 4 Ts. (After bomber had already voluntarily dropped out in the season before).
It swung back to 7Terrans without a patch just through mappool changes.
The mapa in the last two qualifiers werent bad for Z, but whatever. Maybe a tiny balance adjustment would be nice.
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On December 15 2014 20:07 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2014 20:05 Swisslink wrote:On December 15 2014 20:02 SC2Toastie wrote:On December 15 2014 20:01 mCon.Hephaistas wrote:On December 15 2014 19:56 SC2Toastie wrote:It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3. Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that. Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool? On December 15 2014 19:52 Karpfen wrote:What are those? If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1. What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered. I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at. EDITED you edited the post You realise in most of those qualifier groups there are only 3/4 decent players that can actually compete for a code S spot? Yes, I do. I haven't looked at specifics, but it's notable that Zerg has performed a tiny margin below the other races in a couple of qualifiers and for quite a while. Dreampool obviously did nothing to help us in this, so it's something to keep an eye out on for sure. "wait and see" is normally a bad idea if the first season of the two biggest tournaments of the year are played with the current mappool. (Or won't they? Maybe the tournament organizers want to see some Zerg in Ro8 and adhust the mappool themselves? During #Dreampool that should be allowed?) The map pool for WCS 2015 Season 1 is yet to be announced
I know, but GSL/SSL start before WCS 2015. I assume that Blizzard's gonna start the new ladder season at the same time (and therefore with the same map pool) as WCS S1.
But what about the tournaments that happen before that (-> during "offseason", or #Dreampool)? Are they forced to use the 2014 S3 map pool or are they allowed to come up with their own maps?
And since SSL starts... the day after tomorrow... So... which map pool will they use there? xD
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They are allowed to use whatever Maps they want.
Sadly most teams use S3 Pool.
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On December 15 2014 20:11 Swisslink wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2014 20:07 TheDwf wrote:On December 15 2014 20:05 Swisslink wrote:On December 15 2014 20:02 SC2Toastie wrote:On December 15 2014 20:01 mCon.Hephaistas wrote:On December 15 2014 19:56 SC2Toastie wrote:It's slightly worrysome Zerg manages to BARELY not get to the top all the time. Most qualified locations are Rank 2 for Zerg, and they have the most players at number 3. Whilst Top 3 balance looks good, Zerg is in the bottom of that. Problem is, how (if we want to) could we adjust this? We're talking about the tiniest of tiny margins. Should we just wait it out a little bit for the new map pool? On December 15 2014 19:52 Karpfen wrote:What are those? If I recall correctly, that is Code S racial distribution of 2014 S2, 2014 S3 and 2015 S1. What he is saying is that things aren't as bad as they were when Terran was underpowered. I personally disagree with the sentiment "Protoss and Zerg was OP early 2014 so now its our turn NAH NAH!", but well, that seems to be what he's aiming at. EDITED you edited the post You realise in most of those qualifier groups there are only 3/4 decent players that can actually compete for a code S spot? Yes, I do. I haven't looked at specifics, but it's notable that Zerg has performed a tiny margin below the other races in a couple of qualifiers and for quite a while. Dreampool obviously did nothing to help us in this, so it's something to keep an eye out on for sure. "wait and see" is normally a bad idea if the first season of the two biggest tournaments of the year are played with the current mappool. (Or won't they? Maybe the tournament organizers want to see some Zerg in Ro8 and adhust the mappool themselves? During #Dreampool that should be allowed?) The map pool for WCS 2015 Season 1 is yet to be announced I know, but GSL/SSL start before WCS 2015. I assume that Blizzard's gonna start the new ladder season at the same time (and therefore with the same map pool) as WCS S1. But what about the tournaments that happen before that (-> during "offseason", or #Dreampool)? Are they forced to use the 2014 S3 map pool or are they allowed to come up with their own maps? And since SSL starts... the day after tomorrow... So... which map pool will they use there? xD
Code S starts in January, so the new map pool will be announced by then. But no idea for SSL indeed.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://fs1.directupload.net/images/141215/aps9d9sx.png)
![[image loading]](http://fs1.directupload.net/images/141215/tbwufnrd.png)
![[image loading]](http://fs1.directupload.net/images/141215/goqj9yy9.png)
