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[July] TLPD Race Winrate Graphs - Page 27

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Clog
Profile Joined January 2011
United States950 Posts
August 08 2011 04:42 GMT
#521
By my math, the KR PvT data that everyone is talking about is around 8 games away from being 45-55, which is considered as approximately balanced. Protoss probably is weak here, but man, I hate having so little data. And like a lot of people have been saying, a lot of terrans have been winning in a similar manner - one basing it up. Would like to see more time for pro P's to find out ways to handle those all ins, although a slight P buff isn't out of the question imo
NesTea | LosirA | MVP | CoCa | Nada | Ryung | DRG | YongHwa
ZenithM
Profile Joined February 2011
France15952 Posts
August 08 2011 05:01 GMT
#522
On August 08 2011 13:42 Clog wrote:
By my math, the KR PvT data that everyone is talking about is around 8 games away from being 45-55, which is considered as approximately balanced. Protoss probably is weak here, but man, I hate having so little data. And like a lot of people have been saying, a lot of terrans have been winning in a similar manner - one basing it up. Would like to see more time for pro P's to find out ways to handle those all ins, although a slight P buff isn't out of the question imo


You actually don't need to see these graphs to notice that 1-1-1 is screwing up Protoss lately. It's merely a numerical confirmation. Whether or not it's OP is another question, maybe top players can figure out a way to deal with it without being screwed against other openings, we'll see (or it'll be patched huhu).

Still happy to play Protoss, and don't listen to those who tell you that it's the "OP herp derp A-move no micro race yo".
Drowsy
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United States4876 Posts
August 08 2011 05:04 GMT
#523
On August 08 2011 12:42 sjschmidt93 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 12:33 Drowsy wrote:
On August 07 2011 10:13 dooraven wrote:
That 38% win rate is pretty much due to the fact that Terrans have been using the 111 all month on non large maps and protoss haven't learnt to effectively deal with it yet.

Hate to say it, but I agree. There's been a rise in 1 base terran play, but protosses are continuing with FE happy play. 2 gate robo can melt most of those builds.


And anything but an all in "melts" 2 gate robo.



true : (
Our Protoss, Who art in Aiur HongUn be Thy name; Thy stalker come, Thy will be blunk, on ladder as it is in Micro Tourny. Give us this win in our daily ladder, and forgive us our cheeses, As we forgive those who play zerg against us.
pwadoc
Profile Joined August 2010
271 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 05:14:00
August 08 2011 05:12 GMT
#524
On August 08 2011 12:42 Ryder. wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 12:39 Jesushooves wrote:
On August 08 2011 12:18 pwadoc wrote:
You can't compare terran drops and protoss drops. Terran dropships are faster, don't require a speed upgrade, heal the units they drop, and drop units that intelligently spread their fire, don't overkill, and out-dps gateway units.

Actually warp prisms are much faster than terran dropships.

They are the same speed until you upgrade them. All his other points stand though.


Sorry yes, same speed, but dropships accelerate faster.
Ryder.
Profile Joined January 2011
1117 Posts
August 08 2011 05:14 GMT
#525
On August 08 2011 12:43 SoLaR[i.C] wrote:
The only thing that one can deduce from these graphs is that making inferences based on a single month's results is utterly pointless.

But its not a single month. It is every month since April, this month just happens to be the worst.
Drake
Profile Joined October 2010
Germany6146 Posts
August 08 2011 05:25 GMT
#526
last month wasnt funny as protoss but still protoss get flamed as imba race every time they win of their 30% ^^
Nb.Drake / CoL_Drake / Original Joined TL.net Tuesday, 15th of March 2005
skatbone
Profile Joined August 2010
United States1005 Posts
August 08 2011 05:28 GMT
#527
On August 07 2011 20:00 Gheizen64 wrote:
Warpgate is a mechanic that promote too much offensive advantage (all-ins) and force most gateway units to be bad. However changing how the warpgate work would be a too big of a change for Toss, until HotS at least.

That aside, Blizzard should seriously consider nerfing 1-1-1. The Thor was nerfed for a lot less. This is almost as bad as looking 5-rax reapers, it's frustrating even for a viewer. Dunno how you can nerf that without making too big since Terran already feel the weakest race after midgame. Make Marine 40 hp without the shields to nerf early-game all-ins overall? Add a 5-10 secs switch time when you connect an add-on to delay all those timing?

We'll see.


What do you mean by "force most gateway units to be bad"? I realize there was an all-collosus-all-the-time trend in TvP for a months; but haven't we moved beyond that? Numerous pro players have pioneered styles that showcase the strength of upgraded gateway units (templar included).

While the long-term viability of these styles (and current success, I guess, seeing as toss isn't faring well against T according to these stats) is still a question, the warpgate mechanic, imo, gives toss a unique late-game vs T as 20 gates allow me to bank money and hit massive resupplies.

And how is T the weakest late-game race? That too, sounds like an outdated sentiment (Thorzain almost always plays for the late-game.).

tl;dr I don't see how, in your reasoning, warp gate mechanics are part of the problem of toss losing a lot to terran.
Mercurial#1193
Z3kk
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
4099 Posts
August 08 2011 05:32 GMT
#528
Whoa, protoss indeed seems to have a subpar winrate D:

Come on guys, you can do it! ^^ hehe
Failure is not falling down over and over again. Failure is refusing to get back up.
figq
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
12519 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 07:00:05
August 08 2011 06:57 GMT
#529
Just made a fun sum - by race the participation in all Code S GSLs + Super tournament and World Championship. Here are the numbers:
P T Z
9 15 8
16 29 19
10 14 8
6 4 6
9 15 8
9 14 9
12 24 27
20 29 15
27 21 16
118 165 116

=> Consistently over the whole year terrans are about 50% more represented at the top (Code S level)
If you stand next to my head, you can hear the ocean. - Day[9]
Toadvine
Profile Joined November 2010
Poland2234 Posts
August 08 2011 07:14 GMT
#530
On August 08 2011 14:28 skatbone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2011 20:00 Gheizen64 wrote:
Warpgate is a mechanic that promote too much offensive advantage (all-ins) and force most gateway units to be bad. However changing how the warpgate work would be a too big of a change for Toss, until HotS at least.

That aside, Blizzard should seriously consider nerfing 1-1-1. The Thor was nerfed for a lot less. This is almost as bad as looking 5-rax reapers, it's frustrating even for a viewer. Dunno how you can nerf that without making too big since Terran already feel the weakest race after midgame. Make Marine 40 hp without the shields to nerf early-game all-ins overall? Add a 5-10 secs switch time when you connect an add-on to delay all those timing?

We'll see.


What do you mean by "force most gateway units to be bad"? I realize there was an all-collosus-all-the-time trend in TvP for a months; but haven't we moved beyond that? Numerous pro players have pioneered styles that showcase the strength of upgraded gateway units (templar included).

While the long-term viability of these styles (and current success, I guess, seeing as toss isn't faring well against T according to these stats) is still a question, the warpgate mechanic, imo, gives toss a unique late-game vs T as 20 gates allow me to bank money and hit massive resupplies.

And how is T the weakest late-game race? That too, sounds like an outdated sentiment (Thorzain almost always plays for the late-game.).

tl;dr I don't see how, in your reasoning, warp gate mechanics are part of the problem of toss losing a lot to terran.


Imagine if Terran could reinforce bio instantly (by dropping stuff down from orbit like in the campaign) anywhere on the map. Think Marines and Marauders could stay the way they are with this option available?

That is how Warpgate makes gateway units worse than they should be.
"There are always some Eskimos ready to instruct the Congolese on how to cope with heat waves." - S.J.Lec
Amui
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada10567 Posts
August 08 2011 07:22 GMT
#531
On August 08 2011 16:14 Toadvine wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 14:28 skatbone wrote:
On August 07 2011 20:00 Gheizen64 wrote:
Warpgate is a mechanic that promote too much offensive advantage (all-ins) and force most gateway units to be bad. However changing how the warpgate work would be a too big of a change for Toss, until HotS at least.

That aside, Blizzard should seriously consider nerfing 1-1-1. The Thor was nerfed for a lot less. This is almost as bad as looking 5-rax reapers, it's frustrating even for a viewer. Dunno how you can nerf that without making too big since Terran already feel the weakest race after midgame. Make Marine 40 hp without the shields to nerf early-game all-ins overall? Add a 5-10 secs switch time when you connect an add-on to delay all those timing?

We'll see.


What do you mean by "force most gateway units to be bad"? I realize there was an all-collosus-all-the-time trend in TvP for a months; but haven't we moved beyond that? Numerous pro players have pioneered styles that showcase the strength of upgraded gateway units (templar included).

While the long-term viability of these styles (and current success, I guess, seeing as toss isn't faring well against T according to these stats) is still a question, the warpgate mechanic, imo, gives toss a unique late-game vs T as 20 gates allow me to bank money and hit massive resupplies.

And how is T the weakest late-game race? That too, sounds like an outdated sentiment (Thorzain almost always plays for the late-game.).

tl;dr I don't see how, in your reasoning, warp gate mechanics are part of the problem of toss losing a lot to terran.


Imagine if Terran could reinforce bio instantly (by dropping stuff down from orbit like in the campaign) anywhere on the map. Think Marines and Marauders could stay the way they are with this option available?

That is how Warpgate makes gateway units worse than they should be.


It's not quite that bad, the terran equivalent would be the campaign upgrade, and you can drop anywhere within sight range of a supply depot.
Porouscloud - NA LoL
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 08 2011 07:30 GMT
#532
That korean PvZ graph looks cwaaazy lol.

Don't worry, T "imba" will go away once all their builds + counters are figured out. It's just gonna take a while since they have so many...
A backwards poet writes inverse.
IIIOmegaIII
Profile Joined May 2011
Sweden319 Posts
August 08 2011 07:33 GMT
#533
doesnt look all that good for us fellow brotosses
fant0m
Profile Joined May 2010
964 Posts
August 08 2011 07:40 GMT
#534
It seems to be mostly 1/1/1 in PvT.

PvZ I think it's more the fact that Z are "figuring out" FFE and 3 gate sentry expand. Z are starting to know exactly how to be greedy enough to take a 3rd and retain the economic advantage.
Yaotzin
Profile Joined August 2010
South Africa4280 Posts
August 08 2011 07:45 GMT
#535
On August 08 2011 16:40 fant0m wrote:
It seems to be mostly 1/1/1 in PvT.

PvZ I think it's more the fact that Z are "figuring out" FFE and 3 gate sentry expand. Z are starting to know exactly how to be greedy enough to take a 3rd and retain the economic advantage.

PvZ I think is the maps. There's been a backlash from the Steppes days into giant open maps, and these are pretty damn Zerg favored. Things will swing back there.

I agree 1/1/1 is mostly it in PvT. It's probably ~25% of pro PvTs, and it's something like 95% winrate.
CruelZeratul
Profile Joined May 2010
Germany4588 Posts
August 08 2011 08:07 GMT
#536
So Terran has been winning more nearly the whole time span this graph is showing and still no Terrans wants to think about his race perhaps being slightly to strong?
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8266 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 08:16:20
August 08 2011 08:10 GMT
#537
On August 08 2011 14:04 Drowsy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 12:42 sjschmidt93 wrote:
On August 08 2011 12:33 Drowsy wrote:
On August 07 2011 10:13 dooraven wrote:
That 38% win rate is pretty much due to the fact that Terrans have been using the 111 all month on non large maps and protoss haven't learnt to effectively deal with it yet.

Hate to say it, but I agree. There's been a rise in 1 base terran play, but protosses are continuing with FE happy play. 2 gate robo can melt most of those builds.


And anything but an all in "melts" 2 gate robo.



true : (


Thats the big issue. If you do a build thats somewhat safe against an 1-1-1 allin, then you'll end up behind if the terran onerax expands. Since you wont be able to scout anything but a bunker and some marines, you can't know whats what until it happends.
DoofUndance
Profile Joined April 2011
Netherlands22 Posts
August 08 2011 08:17 GMT
#538
People don't understand variance/statistics at all. If you flip a perfectly balanced coin, what should be 50/50 it could still be 60/40 after 400 flips.

Look at professional poker players. They play millions of hands each month and can have losing/break even streaks of a year (!) purely because of variance and still can be winning players long term.

Can I borrow some ambition?
jmbthirteen
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States10734 Posts
August 08 2011 08:18 GMT
#539
On August 08 2011 17:07 CruelZeratul wrote:
So Terran has been winning more nearly the whole time span this graph is showing and still no Terrans wants to think about his race perhaps being slightly to strong?

And it has nothing to do with Terran being the most popular race...

Even in July, as the graphs show a high Terran win% we see the other races doing very well. ZvZ Code S finals, PvP Code A finals. Even this weekend we saw + Show Spoiler +
Zergs win both Assembly and EU invitational, both in PvZ no less
.

But no, Terran being the most popular race isn't why they are winning more games. Not like the five that finished at the top of MLG were Korean trained or anything...
www.superbeerbrothers.com
CruelZeratul
Profile Joined May 2010
Germany4588 Posts
August 08 2011 08:33 GMT
#540
On August 08 2011 17:18 jmbthirteen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 17:07 CruelZeratul wrote:
So Terran has been winning more nearly the whole time span this graph is showing and still no Terrans wants to think about his race perhaps being slightly to strong?

And it has nothing to do with Terran being the most popular race...

Even in July, as the graphs show a high Terran win% we see the other races doing very well. ZvZ Code S finals, PvP Code A finals. Even this weekend we saw + Show Spoiler +
Zergs win both Assembly and EU invitational, both in PvZ no less
.

But no, Terran being the most popular race isn't why they are winning more games. Not like the five that finished at the top of MLG were Korean trained or anything...


So how does popularity influence winrates? And what do you mean by popularity? The number of pro's for one race? Overall Terran doesn not have more players than the other races.
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