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[July] TLPD Race Winrate Graphs - Page 26

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Ryder.
Profile Joined January 2011
1117 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 03:35:56
August 08 2011 03:34 GMT
#501
Eh I do love some of the excuses people come up with to justify why protoss is so weak atm. Between 'protoss players just aren't that good' and 'use moar warp prisms lol' to 'nah bro 38% isn't weak its just how the metagame is at the moment'. Yet you still get an abundance of 'toss ez 1a OP gogo'.

Yeah sure the metagame changes, but if you look at the graphs toss has been below the other races since around April (slightly before then in Korea). That was 4 months ago, which is quite a long time considering the game is barely a year old.

Though I guess the arguement that 'protoss players are just not as good' does make some sense...if statistically your chance of winning a game vs terran was less than 50%, why would choose toss?
WindCalibur
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Canada938 Posts
August 08 2011 03:34 GMT
#502
Protoss may need a buff. Terran and zerg are fine where they are (maybe nerf the infestor a bit but buff something else back).

The problem with protoss especially in PvT is that not only are they losing to 1/1/1 builds because they need more time to figure it out, but also that the ball vs ball metagame is being shifted towards the terran as they learn to micro better and use ghosts more often. I personally think the whole shift towards archons and zeals are really hurting the protoss a lot. I do not know how many times a protoss ball mainly comprised of archons and zeals get owned by a marine heavy ball and emps.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 03:40:09
August 08 2011 03:39 GMT
#503
On August 08 2011 12:33 Drowsy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2011 10:13 dooraven wrote:
That 38% win rate is pretty much due to the fact that Terrans have been using the 111 all month on non large maps and protoss haven't learnt to effectively deal with it yet.

Hate to say it, but I agree. There's been a rise in 1 base terran play, but protosses are continuing with FE happy play. 2 gate robo can melt most of those builds.


I don't think that the 1-1-1 build is working because all protoss are going for the FE. The 1-1-1 build is extremely strong vs 1 base protoss play as well.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
jHERO
Profile Joined August 2010
China167 Posts
August 08 2011 03:39 GMT
#504
heya guys, i know this looks awful for protoss, but look in feb when protoss had really good win rate vs t, i mean, lets take a look at the graph, its like the s&p 500, it fluctulates, who knows if toss is going to bouce back up soon?
Jesushooves
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada553 Posts
August 08 2011 03:39 GMT
#505
On August 08 2011 12:18 pwadoc wrote:
You can't compare terran drops and protoss drops. Terran dropships are faster, don't require a speed upgrade, heal the units they drop, and drop units that intelligently spread their fire, don't overkill, and out-dps gateway units.

Actually warp prisms are much faster than terran dropships.
Lose its good, after will be win.
dooraven
Profile Joined December 2010
Australia2820 Posts
August 08 2011 03:40 GMT
#506
On August 08 2011 12:39 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 12:33 Drowsy wrote:
On August 07 2011 10:13 dooraven wrote:
That 38% win rate is pretty much due to the fact that Terrans have been using the 111 all month on non large maps and protoss haven't learnt to effectively deal with it yet.

Hate to say it, but I agree. There's been a rise in 1 base terran play, but protosses are continuing with FE happy play. 2 gate robo can melt most of those builds.


I don't think that the 1-1-1 build is working because all protoss are going for the FE. The 1-1-1 build is extremism strong vs 1 base protoss play as well.


! gate FE is the best way to deal with this. Kind of stupid that the best way to deal with an allin is to be greedy.
Go go Alliance.
HolyArrow
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7116 Posts
August 08 2011 03:41 GMT
#507
On August 08 2011 12:39 jHERO wrote:
heya guys, i know this looks awful for protoss, but look in feb when protoss had really good win rate vs t, i mean, lets take a look at the graph, its like the s&p 500, it fluctulates, who knows if toss is going to bouce back up soon?


That was when Toss still had KA. Since then, Protoss has never gone above a 50% winrate vT.
sjschmidt93
Profile Joined April 2010
United States2518 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 03:42:12
August 08 2011 03:42 GMT
#508
On August 08 2011 12:33 Drowsy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2011 10:13 dooraven wrote:
That 38% win rate is pretty much due to the fact that Terrans have been using the 111 all month on non large maps and protoss haven't learnt to effectively deal with it yet.

Hate to say it, but I agree. There's been a rise in 1 base terran play, but protosses are continuing with FE happy play. 2 gate robo can melt most of those builds.


And anything but an all in "melts" 2 gate robo.
My grandpa could've proxied better, and not only does he have arthritis, he's also dead. -Sean "Day[9]" Plott
Ryder.
Profile Joined January 2011
1117 Posts
August 08 2011 03:42 GMT
#509
On August 08 2011 12:39 Jesushooves wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 12:18 pwadoc wrote:
You can't compare terran drops and protoss drops. Terran dropships are faster, don't require a speed upgrade, heal the units they drop, and drop units that intelligently spread their fire, don't overkill, and out-dps gateway units.

Actually warp prisms are much faster than terran dropships.

They are the same speed until you upgrade them. All his other points stand though.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
August 08 2011 03:43 GMT
#510
On August 08 2011 12:39 Jesushooves wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 12:18 pwadoc wrote:
You can't compare terran drops and protoss drops. Terran dropships are faster, don't require a speed upgrade, heal the units they drop, and drop units that intelligently spread their fire, don't overkill, and out-dps gateway units.

Actually warp prisms are much faster than terran dropships.


They go the exact same speed if they are not upgraded. The speed upgrade for obs is a better investment and its comes from the same building(along with thermal lace).
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
SoLaR[i.C]
Profile Blog Joined August 2003
United States2969 Posts
August 08 2011 03:43 GMT
#511
The only thing that one can deduce from these graphs is that making inferences based on a single month's results is utterly pointless.
lizzard_warish
Profile Joined June 2011
589 Posts
August 08 2011 03:44 GMT
#512
On August 08 2011 12:40 dooraven wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 12:39 Plansix wrote:
On August 08 2011 12:33 Drowsy wrote:
On August 07 2011 10:13 dooraven wrote:
That 38% win rate is pretty much due to the fact that Terrans have been using the 111 all month on non large maps and protoss haven't learnt to effectively deal with it yet.

Hate to say it, but I agree. There's been a rise in 1 base terran play, but protosses are continuing with FE happy play. 2 gate robo can melt most of those builds.


I don't think that the 1-1-1 build is working because all protoss are going for the FE. The 1-1-1 build is extremism strong vs 1 base protoss play as well.


! gate FE is the best way to deal with this. Kind of stupid that the best way to deal with an allin is to be greedy.
Nah, its just the mechanics of RTS games and was true for BW, as well as other matchups in sc2. Its not stupid, it certainly is counter intuitive.
Crisco
Profile Joined March 2011
1170 Posts
August 08 2011 03:49 GMT
#513
On August 08 2011 12:43 SoLaR[i.C] wrote:
The only thing that one can deduce from these graphs is that making inferences based on a single month's results is utterly pointless.


Exactly. Someone will innovate a new playstyle for PvT at one point or another that will completely shift the metagame once again. It's just a game of tug o war. Mapping this trend over the long run... may help identify weaknesses in races though
HolyArrow
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7116 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 03:53:59
August 08 2011 03:51 GMT
#514
On August 08 2011 12:43 SoLaR[i.C] wrote:
The only thing that one can deduce from these graphs is that making inferences based on a single month's results is utterly pointless.


No. One can deduce other things. One can also look at Terran winrates compared to those of other races and confirm that, at worst for Terran, they break even near 50%, and, at best, they have a ton of nice spikes in winrates ranging from the high 50s to low 60s. Meanwhile, look at the other races: Zerg and Protoss are pretty even against each other, fluctuating wildly and pretty evenly (though it's easy to see that Zerg spikes have almost always been greater). ZvT is perhaps the most depressing since it's easy to see that it's mostly been a huge period of Terran dominance with smaller portions of equality. Instead of focusing on this month alone, it's quite revealing to look at the entire graph since it spans all the way to September.
SxYSpAz
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1451 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 04:00:03
August 08 2011 03:55 GMT
#515
On August 07 2011 09:51 Darclite wrote:
It's funny, I'm not as bothered as much by Protoss being weak as I am by people telling me how OP it is.

Omg that's so true. If it's weak now, we'll find something in the metagame that will bump us back up. If it is (and i'm not at all saying it is) imbalanced, blizzard will eventually patch things up. so no need to bitch.

except about marine tank banshee. bitch... and don't stop. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a huge majority of the reason T is p-p-pwning P. I see this build in 1 of around 4 pvt matches.

But yeah, let's give the rest some time.

Edit:
On August 08 2011 12:42 Ryder. wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 12:39 Jesushooves wrote:
On August 08 2011 12:18 pwadoc wrote:
You can't compare terran drops and protoss drops. Terran dropships are faster, don't require a speed upgrade, heal the units they drop, and drop units that intelligently spread their fire, don't overkill, and out-dps gateway units.

Actually warp prisms are much faster than terran dropships.

They are the same speed until you upgrade them. All his other points stand though.

okay, why do you have my name? and u play protoss?

we're so awesome
thezergk
Profile Joined October 2009
United States492 Posts
August 08 2011 04:04 GMT
#516
damn look how volatile the PvZ/ZvP matchup is... It just shifts non stop.
Nada vs. TLO Results: "Nada 1 TLO 1 Bnet 2 KESPA 1"
Skwid1g
Profile Joined April 2011
United States953 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 04:12:24
August 08 2011 04:09 GMT
#517
On August 07 2011 10:08 awesomoecalypse wrote:
Show nested quote +
yes that means that zergs looks waaaay better than they are because of nestea and losira


They undoubtedly have some influence, but should they somehow be ignored because they're good. Should we ignore MC's results when evaluating Toss?

If a race's best player is capable of dominating the way Nestea does, then thats useful to know for balance purposes, because it means that at the very highest skill level we can at the very least say the race is not UP. Like, towards the end of Savior's peak he was really the only Zerg stomping everybody, but simply because he was kicking everyone's ass, no one would ever try to claim Zerg was UP in any way (until Bisu showed up, but thats a different story).


That logic is kind of dumb. Just because someone is stomping with a race doesn't mean it's not UP, nor does it mean it's OP. Nestea could just be THAT much better than the competition.

Honestly this graph doesn't mean all that much, just fun to look at. A lot of good Terrans have switched and the Korean Terrans are very refined. Honestly the only thing that makes the graph look bad is the TvP, which I'd blame at least in part on the marine/tank/banshee all-in.
NaDa/Fantasy/Zero/Soulkey pls
Drowsy
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United States4876 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 04:15:05
August 08 2011 04:14 GMT
#518
On August 07 2011 17:11 wolfe wrote:
I all honesty I feel like these statistics are doing more harm than good atm. It's just leading to a lot of QQing and balance whining. This is a small sample size of the top players and as we can see it can vary drastically based on the meta. Drawing conclusions here only fuels rather pointless fires.



No. There is no sample size here. Nobody in their right mind is setting this up as population = ladder population and sample = top tournament players. At this point, the population being examined is top tournament games. You have no sample because your data corresponds to the entire population, which is nearly 20k games and is more than enough. This would still realistically be suitable in examining the balance of upper masters/gm as well, where a whole lot of teamliquid posters are. (and if you're not there then don't even worry about balance).
Our Protoss, Who art in Aiur HongUn be Thy name; Thy stalker come, Thy will be blunk, on ladder as it is in Micro Tourny. Give us this win in our daily ladder, and forgive us our cheeses, As we forgive those who play zerg against us.
Amui
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada10567 Posts
August 08 2011 04:18 GMT
#519
On August 08 2011 12:42 sjschmidt93 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 12:33 Drowsy wrote:
On August 07 2011 10:13 dooraven wrote:
That 38% win rate is pretty much due to the fact that Terrans have been using the 111 all month on non large maps and protoss haven't learnt to effectively deal with it yet.

Hate to say it, but I agree. There's been a rise in 1 base terran play, but protosses are continuing with FE happy play. 2 gate robo can melt most of those builds.


And anything but an all in "melts" 2 gate robo.


Actually the 1-1-1 allin soft counters any robo build, but it's our goto safe build if we can't see what terran is doing. A bunker with 3 marines inside could be anything, especially if T just hides the rest of his units.

On the earlier pages, the people who say colossus drops are dumb. I rarely ever see a terran attempt to engage a protoss army with 2+ colossi without vikings, and guess what colossus drops don't shoot?(up)

Even storm drops aren't that good against terran/zerg. Storm does damage in 10 damage ticks. It takes 2.5 seconds in a storm to kill terran/zerg workers in the AoE. Assuming equal reaction time from all the races, you know what you can do against a storm drop that you can't do as effectively against MM drops and bane/ling drops? run. I feel like storm drops against terran are good simply because terrans aren't used to having to monitor the minimap like a hawk against protoss.

Nerfing the 1/1/1 allin would probably entail making it's damage 10+3 against light. That way they wouldn't beat stalkers 1v1.

Banshees still serve the same role in TvT - punishing meching terrans without air control, and TvZ I guess roach rushes against cloak banshee would be more scary.
Porouscloud - NA LoL
flowSthead
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
1065 Posts
August 08 2011 04:28 GMT
#520
It's funny to me that Zergs whined all the time, not because they weren't UP (I think they were), but because they were whining about Protoss instead of Terran. A look at the graphs for both international and Korean TvZ shows Terrans dominating Zergs for most of the match up over a long period of time. PvZ is much closer internationally, while in Korea it shifts from one to the other all the time.

That is the reason I especially dislike Zergs who whine. Not because they aren't right, but because their anger was always misplaced. Fucking Protoss has to always be the bad guy just because we don't have mouths. Man, do you know how much I miss ice cream now that I'm a Protoss? No empathy at all.

On a serious note, I don't think Protoss is UP, or Terran is OP. I think it's too early to tell. I would love a new harass unit for Protoss in the next expansion, but things are fine for now. I do like data though, and the graphs are pretty so mad props to that.
"You can be creative but I will crush it under the iron fist of my conservative play." - Liquid`Tyler █ MVP ■ MC ■ Boxer ■ Grubby █
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