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[July] TLPD Race Winrate Graphs - Page 28

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
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jmbthirteen
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States10734 Posts
August 08 2011 08:36 GMT
#541
On August 08 2011 17:33 CruelZeratul wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 17:18 jmbthirteen wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:07 CruelZeratul wrote:
So Terran has been winning more nearly the whole time span this graph is showing and still no Terrans wants to think about his race perhaps being slightly to strong?

And it has nothing to do with Terran being the most popular race...

Even in July, as the graphs show a high Terran win% we see the other races doing very well. ZvZ Code S finals, PvP Code A finals. Even this weekend we saw + Show Spoiler +
Zergs win both Assembly and EU invitational, both in PvZ no less
.

But no, Terran being the most popular race isn't why they are winning more games. Not like the five that finished at the top of MLG were Korean trained or anything...


So how does popularity influence winrates? And what do you mean by popularity? The number of pro's for one race? Overall Terran doesn not have more players than the other races.

Most popular race, more players playing the race, larger amount of better players.
www.superbeerbrothers.com
FYRE
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
New Zealand314 Posts
August 08 2011 08:50 GMT
#542
LOL at korean TvP.
CruelZeratul
Profile Joined May 2010
Germany4588 Posts
August 08 2011 08:50 GMT
#543
On August 08 2011 17:36 jmbthirteen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 17:33 CruelZeratul wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:18 jmbthirteen wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:07 CruelZeratul wrote:
So Terran has been winning more nearly the whole time span this graph is showing and still no Terrans wants to think about his race perhaps being slightly to strong?

And it has nothing to do with Terran being the most popular race...

Even in July, as the graphs show a high Terran win% we see the other races doing very well. ZvZ Code S finals, PvP Code A finals. Even this weekend we saw + Show Spoiler +
Zergs win both Assembly and EU invitational, both in PvZ no less
.

But no, Terran being the most popular race isn't why they are winning more games. Not like the five that finished at the top of MLG were Korean trained or anything...


So how does popularity influence winrates? And what do you mean by popularity? The number of pro's for one race? Overall Terran doesn not have more players than the other races.

Most popular race, more players playing the race, larger amount of better players.


http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all
There are not significantly more Teran players so the fact that the race has more players at the top can't be explained that way.
Amui
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada10567 Posts
August 08 2011 08:54 GMT
#544
On August 08 2011 17:33 CruelZeratul wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 17:18 jmbthirteen wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:07 CruelZeratul wrote:
So Terran has been winning more nearly the whole time span this graph is showing and still no Terrans wants to think about his race perhaps being slightly to strong?

And it has nothing to do with Terran being the most popular race...

Even in July, as the graphs show a high Terran win% we see the other races doing very well. ZvZ Code S finals, PvP Code A finals. Even this weekend we saw + Show Spoiler +
Zergs win both Assembly and EU invitational, both in PvZ no less
.

But no, Terran being the most popular race isn't why they are winning more games. Not like the five that finished at the top of MLG were Korean trained or anything...


So how does popularity influence winrates? And what do you mean by popularity? The number of pro's for one race? Overall Terran doesn not have more players than the other races.


In Korea(the most skilled server by a decent margin), there are far more masters+ terrans than any other race. As a result, the terrans look for ways to distinguish themselves as better players than all the other terrans, and as such become refined far more quickly through intense competition. Add in the fact that terran out of all the races allows for the most different styles, and you get popularity = increase in skill. It only takes one terran to create a build.
Porouscloud - NA LoL
Ganseng
Profile Joined July 2011
Russian Federation473 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 09:12:24
August 08 2011 09:08 GMT
#545
these statistics represent absolutely insufficient number of games. you can just look at the rapid changes (plunges and peaks from 60 % to 40 % and other way) and see how little these graphs really represent.
jmbthirteen
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States10734 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 09:15:26
August 08 2011 09:14 GMT
#546
On August 08 2011 17:50 CruelZeratul wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 17:36 jmbthirteen wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:33 CruelZeratul wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:18 jmbthirteen wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:07 CruelZeratul wrote:
So Terran has been winning more nearly the whole time span this graph is showing and still no Terrans wants to think about his race perhaps being slightly to strong?

And it has nothing to do with Terran being the most popular race...

Even in July, as the graphs show a high Terran win% we see the other races doing very well. ZvZ Code S finals, PvP Code A finals. Even this weekend we saw + Show Spoiler +
Zergs win both Assembly and EU invitational, both in PvZ no less
.

But no, Terran being the most popular race isn't why they are winning more games. Not like the five that finished at the top of MLG were Korean trained or anything...


So how does popularity influence winrates? And what do you mean by popularity? The number of pro's for one race? Overall Terran doesn not have more players than the other races.

Most popular race, more players playing the race, larger amount of better players.


http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all
There are not significantly more Teran players so the fact that the race has more players at the top can't be explained that way.


Except the major difference in win% isn't global, its in Korea. And when looking at the race distribution in Korea, there are more Terrans by a good bit.

http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/fea/1/all
www.superbeerbrothers.com
nihlon
Profile Joined April 2010
Sweden5581 Posts
August 08 2011 09:14 GMT
#547
Well you can cleary see the international graph have less fluctuations most likely because it's a much larger sample of games. It definatly has some merit.
Banelings are too cute to blow up
Elefanto
Profile Joined May 2010
Switzerland3584 Posts
August 08 2011 10:01 GMT
#548
On August 08 2011 17:54 Amui wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 17:33 CruelZeratul wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:18 jmbthirteen wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:07 CruelZeratul wrote:
So Terran has been winning more nearly the whole time span this graph is showing and still no Terrans wants to think about his race perhaps being slightly to strong?

And it has nothing to do with Terran being the most popular race...

Even in July, as the graphs show a high Terran win% we see the other races doing very well. ZvZ Code S finals, PvP Code A finals. Even this weekend we saw + Show Spoiler +
Zergs win both Assembly and EU invitational, both in PvZ no less
.

But no, Terran being the most popular race isn't why they are winning more games. Not like the five that finished at the top of MLG were Korean trained or anything...


So how does popularity influence winrates? And what do you mean by popularity? The number of pro's for one race? Overall Terran doesn not have more players than the other races.


In Korea(the most skilled server by a decent margin), there are far more masters+ terrans than any other race. As a result, the terrans look for ways to distinguish themselves as better players than all the other terrans, and as such become refined far more quickly through intense competition. Add in the fact that terran out of all the races allows for the most different styles, and you get popularity = increase in skill. It only takes one terran to create a build.


It was stated on numerous korean streams that in korea it's the perception that terran is the strongest race. That's the reason so many people in korea play it.
I won't judge if it's imbalanced or design, maybe both of them.
wat
Schnullerbacke13
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany1199 Posts
August 08 2011 10:21 GMT
#549
On August 07 2011 09:41 ZappaSC wrote:
Wow that looks crazy... what have the terrans learned since last month that i have completly missed? o.O


getting into an aeroplane and own foreigner tournees
21 is half the truth
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8225 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 10:29:43
August 08 2011 10:22 GMT
#550
On August 08 2011 17:17 DoofUndance wrote:
People don't understand variance/statistics at all. If you flip a perfectly balanced coin, what should be 50/50 it could still be 60/40 after 400 flips.

Look at professional poker players. They play millions of hands each month and can have losing/break even streaks of a year (!) purely because of variance and still can be winning players long term.



If you get 60/40 after 19710 flips (about the same amount of tournament games played this month), I'd probably start looking at the coin you where using as well. Terran has been the overall dominating race since release. They have been on top constantly for the last 7 months, and you still don't think that the statistics can be used as an indication that something is wrong?
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8225 Posts
August 08 2011 10:31 GMT
#551
On August 08 2011 18:08 Ganseng wrote:
these statistics represent absolutely insufficient number of games. you can just look at the rapid changes (plunges and peaks from 60 % to 40 % and other way) and see how little these graphs really represent.


One month of evolution in gameplay, and patches, can be more than enough to change the tide. I'd say 19710 games played in tournaments only, is a very good number for statistical analyzis.
Zealot Lord
Profile Joined May 2010
Hong Kong747 Posts
August 08 2011 10:32 GMT
#552
On August 07 2011 11:06 Liquid`Jinro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2011 09:59 Zealot Lord wrote:
On August 07 2011 09:50 OrchidThief wrote:
On August 07 2011 09:41 ZappaSC wrote:
Wow that looks crazy... what have the terrans learned since last month that i have completly missed? o.O


The marine/tank/raven timing attack is really giving protoss some problems at least.


This. The Korea TvP graph shouldn't look this bad if not for protoss players going something like 0-10 in the GSL up & down matches thanks to this all in lol.

Id expect it to look better next month (unless some new allin is discovered), because Ps on ladder seem 10x better at dealing with 1-1-1 builds than they did 2-3 weeks ago.

Obviously this wont show up in statistics until next month, however.


It isn't happening so far yet.. I think protoss is like 0-3 with this already this month =(
Dommk
Profile Joined May 2010
Australia4865 Posts
August 08 2011 16:26 GMT
#553
On August 08 2011 19:32 Zealot Lord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2011 11:06 Liquid`Jinro wrote:
On August 07 2011 09:59 Zealot Lord wrote:
On August 07 2011 09:50 OrchidThief wrote:
On August 07 2011 09:41 ZappaSC wrote:
Wow that looks crazy... what have the terrans learned since last month that i have completly missed? o.O


The marine/tank/raven timing attack is really giving protoss some problems at least.


This. The Korea TvP graph shouldn't look this bad if not for protoss players going something like 0-10 in the GSL up & down matches thanks to this all in lol.

Id expect it to look better next month (unless some new allin is discovered), because Ps on ladder seem 10x better at dealing with 1-1-1 builds than they did 2-3 weeks ago.

Obviously this wont show up in statistics until next month, however.


It isn't happening so far yet.. I think protoss is like 0-3 with this already this month =(

Hmm, 0-3. Ganzi 1/1/1'd every Protoss in the qualifiers. Every Protoss in the up and down lost to 1/1/1 :X

PvT is fine if you exclude 1/1/1. But really, this build has been around for so long, so depressing that there isn't a good response to it .__.
Drowsy
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United States4876 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 20:07:22
August 08 2011 20:00 GMT
#554
Maybe Blizzard should man up and just nerf marine's damage output already (base attack speed specifically), seems like it would fix both the 1/1/1 dominance as well as zvt.
Our Protoss, Who art in Aiur HongUn be Thy name; Thy stalker come, Thy will be blunk, on ladder as it is in Micro Tourny. Give us this win in our daily ladder, and forgive us our cheeses, As we forgive those who play zerg against us.
sleepingdog
Profile Joined August 2008
Austria6145 Posts
August 08 2011 20:21 GMT
#555
On August 09 2011 05:00 Drowsy wrote:
Maybe Blizzard should man up and just nerf marine's damage output already (base attack speed specifically), seems like it would fix both the 1/1/1 dominance as well as zvt.


You can't nerf damage itself though, otherwise marines would suffer way too much from guardian shield. Only cooldown is/would be an option.
"You see....YOU SEE..." © 2010 Sen
Yew
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States940 Posts
August 08 2011 20:24 GMT
#556
GSL spoilers! + Show Spoiler +
August isn't looking better for Protoss. They have gone 0-4 so far, and the one protoss that moved on was in a PvP D:
pwadoc
Profile Joined August 2010
271 Posts
August 08 2011 20:28 GMT
#557
On August 09 2011 05:21 sleepingdog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2011 05:00 Drowsy wrote:
Maybe Blizzard should man up and just nerf marine's damage output already (base attack speed specifically), seems like it would fix both the 1/1/1 dominance as well as zvt.


You can't nerf damage itself though, otherwise marines would suffer way too much from guardian shield. Only cooldown is/would be an option.


I think bio movement speed would be a better nerf target. It would blunt the offensive power of bio without sacrificing too much defensive capability.
Amui
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada10567 Posts
August 08 2011 21:04 GMT
#558
On August 09 2011 05:28 pwadoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2011 05:21 sleepingdog wrote:
On August 09 2011 05:00 Drowsy wrote:
Maybe Blizzard should man up and just nerf marine's damage output already (base attack speed specifically), seems like it would fix both the 1/1/1 dominance as well as zvt.


You can't nerf damage itself though, otherwise marines would suffer way too much from guardian shield. Only cooldown is/would be an option.


I think bio movement speed would be a better nerf target. It would blunt the offensive power of bio without sacrificing too much defensive capability.

Well protoss can deal with marine tank for the most part, and so can zerg. Any marine change would have huge repercussions in the tvz mu. Only unit which could be changed without much feedback is the banshee. 9+3 or 10+2 to light would really only hurt the banshee against queens, which is fine. 2 port won't be as autowin against a zerg with only 3 queens
Porouscloud - NA LoL
tdt
Profile Joined October 2010
United States3179 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 21:44:19
August 08 2011 21:42 GMT
#559
It's not just 1/1/1 it's a series of nerfs that removed Protoss' ability to harrass, and slow down or keep up with opponents who have better econ mechanics. VR from 40 dps to 20 something. WG nerf so all pushes comes later making them rather benign. KA which allowed for taking expos for slow protoss army was removed.

I don't buy the the infestors buff. Hardly anyone in Korea uses infestors anyway not to mention it's just a slight buff. What happened is now Zerg can take fast 3rds with little risks burying protoss later with numbers of any number of units. 1/1/1 has always been around since beta, the counter was gate pushes, which now come too late so Terran is free to do them with little risk.

Until Protoss gets reliable and effective harass again they will stay behind economically and continue to lose mid and late game due to sheer numbers.
MC for president
tdt
Profile Joined October 2010
United States3179 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-08 21:57:40
August 08 2011 21:56 GMT
#560
On August 08 2011 17:36 jmbthirteen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 08 2011 17:33 CruelZeratul wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:18 jmbthirteen wrote:
On August 08 2011 17:07 CruelZeratul wrote:
So Terran has been winning more nearly the whole time span this graph is showing and still no Terrans wants to think about his race perhaps being slightly to strong?

And it has nothing to do with Terran being the most popular race...

Even in July, as the graphs show a high Terran win% we see the other races doing very well. ZvZ Code S finals, PvP Code A finals. Even this weekend we saw + Show Spoiler +
Zergs win both Assembly and EU invitational, both in PvZ no less
.

But no, Terran being the most popular race isn't why they are winning more games. Not like the five that finished at the top of MLG were Korean trained or anything...


So how does popularity influence winrates? And what do you mean by popularity? The number of pro's for one race? Overall Terran doesn not have more players than the other races.

Most popular race, more players playing the race, larger amount of better players.



Only recently is terran most played

Prior to patch 1.3 Protoss was most played at grandmaster in korea
http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/fea/1/all/0/130
MC for president
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