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Race balance last 6 months. - Page 19

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Zhou
Profile Joined February 2009
United States832 Posts
May 05 2011 14:23 GMT
#361
Despite a small amount of time for the game to develop, and a ton of patches I think the best thing to take away from here is the change of play style from place to place; even if the Korean pool is smaller.

The interesting thing to note is how big the changes are patch after patch, and the its somewhat balancing out though. Of course, there a lot of things elsewhere to consider. Nice job OP!

Very neato-burrito to look at and think about.
Geovu
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Estonia1344 Posts
May 05 2011 14:30 GMT
#362
On May 05 2011 22:11 magha wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 04 2011 17:49 jmbthirteen wrote:
On May 04 2011 05:25 Nakas wrote:
On May 04 2011 04:48 Executor1 wrote:
On May 04 2011 01:05 MrCon wrote:
On May 03 2011 23:27 nihlon wrote:
On May 03 2011 22:10 MrCon wrote:
NASL stats after 3 weeks
Protoss Terran Zerg

Protoss [17-17] | 50%[21-17] | 55%[15-20] | 43%

Terran [17-21] | 45%[18-18] | 50%[25-27] | 48%

Zerg [20-15] | 57%[27-25] | 52%[13-13] | 50%

Not 70% winrate in NASL for ZvP :o


If I'm understanding your post correctly it's 57% ZvP. That may not be 70 % but it's still really high if we assume those numbers would be a fair representation of ZvP generally in high level play (It's not). So I'm not really sure what your point is.

No point, 2 times in this thread people talked about zergs having a 70% winrate in NASL, so I just checked and posted the facts because I don't like misinformation spreading, that's all.

That's exactly the same as people here ignoring the significant graph and pointing to the 200 games sample graph to strengthen their "point" (which has the word imbalance in it obviously). The korean graph means absolutly nothing, I feel OP shouldn't even have posted it because it's just a justification for trolls now.


I was one of the people that said it but it wasn't exactly misinformation it was outdated information I didn't realize they had updated the statistics yet (I checked 2 days ago) and zvp was 68 % in zergs favor. 57 percent is still quite substantial though I guess Protoss had a decent week in nasal though^^


Two games were WhiteRa's forfeit to July, four were due to Artosis simply being out of his league at the moment (both figuratively and literally). Ignore those 6 outlier datapoints, and the percentage actually falls below 50%.


Do you really want to go there? I mean I can understand the point about July's WO wins. But come on. Haypro lost 0-2 to Squirtle. When was the last time Haypro won a match against anyone? So take those two Protoss wins out of the equation. Moonglade lost to Axslav. Moonglade is in the same boat as Haypro. He hasn't been playing well at all lately. Machine lose to Hasuobs. I think everyone would agree that Hasu is the far superior player. So get rid of those two losses too. Ignore those 6 outlier datapoints and things dont look so bad again do they?

You can't just go ignoring matches on one side because of player skill and not ignore matches on the other side.


Haypro won that TL tourney over TLO and Nony. He lives and trains in Korea. Dont for a moment think Haypro isnt one of the best Zergs in the world.

It's hard to believe one of the best Zergs in the world would forget drones in gas and stockpile 2k minerals in the midgame, like in NASL week 1.

Nearly every game I watch of Hapro he just seems to stockpile extra minerals everywhere. He always seems to cripple himself in some way. Granted, I haven't watched many of his games, but at least half of the dozen games I've seen have had him do facepalm worthy novice mistakes, over and over.
Yaotzin
Profile Joined August 2010
South Africa4280 Posts
May 05 2011 14:34 GMT
#363
On May 05 2011 23:09 hifriend wrote:
I think regardless of whether z or p has the advantage in that matchup, it's pretty poorly designed and not that enjoyable right now from a spectator point of view. Zergs tend to have to find a way to end the games at an early stage, and don't have the tools to compete in late game scenarios. Even if the matchup is at a perfect 50% win rate right now, I still wouldn't mind blizzard making some pretty large adjustments.

It's heavily in flux at the moment. If it settles down into something unenjoyable ala PvP, that would be the time to change it.
MuazizTremere
Profile Joined September 2010
Netherlands67 Posts
May 05 2011 14:55 GMT
#364

It's heavily in flux at the moment. If it settles down into something unenjoyable ala PvP, that would be the time to change it.


Really?

I find PvZ probably the most unenjoyable matchup to watch at the moment. When watching it live, it's without exception extremely 1-sided.

If Protoss forge fast-expands, Zerg takes 3 bases and powers 70 drones freely and wins with a-move.

If Protoss 3 warpgate expands, Zerg rolls them over with this new ling/roach bust unless they blindly make 4 cannons in which case freely powers 70 drones and wins. With a-move.

If Protoss does some sort of 1-base all-in there's actually some enjoyable micro to watch and then it usually ends with Zerg holding it with emergency spines and winning.

If Zerg somehow fuck up during the first 15 minutes and let Protoss start the deathball and take a third, Protoss a-moves the ball all over whatever Zerg has.

How is that a fun matchup to watch? I take 4-gate micro over that any day.

Yaotzin
Profile Joined August 2010
South Africa4280 Posts
May 05 2011 15:02 GMT
#365
On May 05 2011 23:55 MuazizTremere wrote:
Really?

Yes? There's very little stable play in the MU at the moment. Protoss and Zerg are both doing either greedy or allinish plays and ending it early.

If Protoss forge fast-expands, Zerg takes 3 bases and powers 70 drones freely and wins with a-move.

FFE doesn't really fall behind on workers but OK. You must know something other Zergs don't.

If Protoss 3 warpgate expands, Zerg rolls them over with this new ling/roach bust unless they blindly make 4 cannons in which case freely powers 70 drones and wins. With a-move.

1 cannon holds it. Greedy tosses haven't even been making that, so they die.

How is that a fun matchup to watch? I take 4-gate micro over that any day.

I said it was in flux, not that it was a fun matchup.
hugman
Profile Joined June 2009
Sweden4644 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-05 15:27:23
May 05 2011 15:25 GMT
#366
On May 05 2011 23:55 MuazizTremere wrote:
Show nested quote +

It's heavily in flux at the moment. If it settles down into something unenjoyable ala PvP, that would be the time to change it.


Really?

I find PvZ probably the most unenjoyable matchup to watch at the moment. When watching it live, it's without exception extremely 1-sided.

If Protoss forge fast-expands, Zerg takes 3 bases and powers 70 drones freely and wins with a-move.


You don't usually hatch first vs FFE because cannons rushes can be so powerful, and with pool first you fall behind economically. Just because you've seen Sheth mass expand and not get punished for it that doesn't mean that the matchup usually plays out that way,

On May 05 2011 23:55 MuazizTremere wrote:
If Protoss 3 warpgate expands, Zerg rolls them over with this new ling/roach bust unless they blindly make 4 cannons in which case freely powers 70 drones and wins. With a-move.


Or they do a 2-base Warp Gate timing, or they turtle properly and get to 3-base and roll the Zerg over.

You're just being silly.
l3iRdMaN
Profile Joined February 2004
United States72 Posts
May 05 2011 15:47 GMT
#367
lol sample size

User was warned for this post
War Horse
Profile Joined January 2011
United States247 Posts
May 05 2011 17:41 GMT
#368
On May 02 2011 23:46 Ctuchik wrote:
Alright, so here are some charts I made on race winrates.

All data is from TLPD, so this is ONLY pro games from tournaments and leagues. NO ladder games. Mirror matchups are completely excluded from the data set since they would skew the results towards 50%.

MLG dallas is not included in April since they haven't released all their replays yet.

First one is from the international scene:

[image loading]


And here is the korean version. NOTE THAT THE KOREAN VERSION HAS A MUCH LOWER SAMPLE SIZE! The number of players and tournaments in Korea is much lower, so therefore these numbers are more volatile.
[image loading]


More stuff on my twitter here and on reddit here.

Can you combine the data so we get a global vision?
Why appeal to God when you can appeal to Apaches?
War Horse
Profile Joined January 2011
United States247 Posts
May 05 2011 17:42 GMT
#369
On May 06 2011 00:47 l3iRdMaN wrote:
lol sample size

8000 games is a pretty good sample size bro

User was warned for this post
Why appeal to God when you can appeal to Apaches?
1Eris1
Profile Joined September 2010
United States5797 Posts
May 05 2011 17:49 GMT
#370
On May 05 2011 23:55 MuazizTremere wrote:
Show nested quote +

It's heavily in flux at the moment. If it settles down into something unenjoyable ala PvP, that would be the time to change it.


Really?

I find PvZ probably the most unenjoyable matchup to watch at the moment. When watching it live, it's without exception extremely 1-sided.

If Protoss forge fast-expands, Zerg takes 3 bases and powers 70 drones freely and wins with a-move.

If Protoss 3 warpgate expands, Zerg rolls them over with this new ling/roach bust unless they blindly make 4 cannons in which case freely powers 70 drones and wins. With a-move.

If Protoss does some sort of 1-base all-in there's actually some enjoyable micro to watch and then it usually ends with Zerg holding it with emergency spines and winning.

If Zerg somehow fuck up during the first 15 minutes and let Protoss start the deathball and take a third, Protoss a-moves the ball all over whatever Zerg has.

How is that a fun matchup to watch? I take 4-gate micro over that any day.


Lol what games have you been watching?



User was warned for this post
Known Aliases: Tyragon, Valeric ~MSL Forever, SKT is truly the Superior KT!
War Horse
Profile Joined January 2011
United States247 Posts
May 05 2011 17:53 GMT
#371
On May 03 2011 00:17 dismiss wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2011 00:11 57 Corvette wrote:
Hmm, seems Protoss is having a hard time recently in Korea.


And for all those who say "XvX Matchup is Imba!", look at the International stats. They are currently all pretty much at 50%w/L ratio. So shut up, this game isn't Imba in any way shape or form at this time.

The problem with these statistics is that they take neither the different maps nor the the difference in playskill into account, which, at least in my opinion, is much bigger in the foreign scene than in the GSL. So a matchup might look "more balanced" than it actually is due to a few top players beating worse players over and over.

Over 8000+ games this will balance out. Also its including data from good players beating other good players


There's no way for it to control by "player skill", how would you even quantify that?
Why appeal to God when you can appeal to Apaches?
taintmachine
Profile Joined May 2010
United States431 Posts
May 05 2011 18:10 GMT
#372
blizzard must be very happy if their data is similar to the data portrayed by the graph of the international scene.
natehhggh
Profile Joined December 2010
United States33 Posts
May 05 2011 22:19 GMT
#373
On May 06 2011 02:42 War Horse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 00:47 l3iRdMaN wrote:
lol sample size

8000 games is a pretty good sample size bro

it's a small sample size for something like balance
sAfuRos
Profile Joined March 2009
United States743 Posts
May 05 2011 22:31 GMT
#374
On May 06 2011 07:19 natehhggh wrote:
it's a small sample size for something like balance

Not really
Take stats before you make comments like this
sAfuRos // twitch.tv/sAfuRos // contact for coaching
Yaotzin
Profile Joined August 2010
South Africa4280 Posts
May 05 2011 22:36 GMT
#375
On May 06 2011 07:31 sAfuRos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 07:19 natehhggh wrote:
it's a small sample size for something like balance

Not really
Take stats before you make comments like this

Well, technically the number of games since the last patch is much less, and that's only what truly matters. Still gives a very good view though.
awesomoecalypse
Profile Joined August 2010
United States2235 Posts
May 05 2011 22:40 GMT
#376
On May 06 2011 07:19 natehhggh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 02:42 War Horse wrote:
On May 06 2011 00:47 l3iRdMaN wrote:
lol sample size

8000 games is a pretty good sample size bro

it's a small sample size for something like balance


and yet people constantly use anecdotal evidence of a couple games to declare "imbalance"
He drone drone drone. Me win. - ogsMC
Stiluz
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway688 Posts
May 05 2011 22:52 GMT
#377
Regarding the sample size and the number of games. 8000 seems much, if you compare it to the number of respondents to a questionaire in a smaller country. There is a formula to calculate the needed sample size based on the population (can't remember it off the top of my head), but in this case, the "population" would be the total number of games played, ever (region specific), or a more specific sample from all games in a region since patch X. Interesting graphs though.
Eppa!
Profile Joined November 2010
Sweden4641 Posts
May 05 2011 23:19 GMT
#378
On May 05 2011 23:55 MuazizTremere wrote:
Show nested quote +

It's heavily in flux at the moment. If it settles down into something unenjoyable ala PvP, that would be the time to change it.


Really?

I find PvZ probably the most unenjoyable matchup to watch at the moment. When watching it live, it's without exception extremely 1-sided.

If Protoss forge fast-expands, Zerg takes 3 bases and powers 70 drones freely and wins with a-move.

If Protoss 3 warpgate expands, Zerg rolls them over with this new ling/roach bust unless they blindly make 4 cannons in which case freely powers 70 drones and wins. With a-move.

If Protoss does some sort of 1-base all-in there's actually some enjoyable micro to watch and then it usually ends with Zerg holding it with emergency spines and winning.

If Zerg somehow fuck up during the first 15 minutes and let Protoss start the deathball and take a third, Protoss a-moves the ball all over whatever Zerg has.

How is that a fun matchup to watch? I take 4-gate micro over that any day.


PvZ is currently the most volatile MU atm which is why Toss and Zerg both have roll over wins. I think the MU has bigger potential than TvP where it is basically lesser drop play and ball vs ball moving around because the defender advantage is crazy for Toss and good for terran(which have the more mobile army).

FFE is ahead of a pool hatch build in terms of worker + cb.
3 wg is 100% safe if you build a forge next to Nexus and have 1-3 cannons depending on maps.
"Can't wait till Monday" Cixah+Waveofshadow. "Needs to be monday. Weekend please go by quickly." Gahlo
Tiegrr
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States607 Posts
May 05 2011 23:32 GMT
#379
70% win rate for ZvP..

Glad I'm not the only one getting stomped by everything Zerg..
Drowsy
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
United States4876 Posts
May 05 2011 23:37 GMT
#380
Impressive work by blizz, the game is pretty damn balanced really.
Our Protoss, Who art in Aiur HongUn be Thy name; Thy stalker come, Thy will be blunk, on ladder as it is in Micro Tourny. Give us this win in our daily ladder, and forgive us our cheeses, As we forgive those who play zerg against us.
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