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On May 03 2011 07:21 Barca wrote: Love the excuses people are making up to justify their belief that Protoss is OP.
People are just so defensive.
ahha i agree
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On May 04 2011 02:48 MrCon wrote: Sv1, the examples you take have absolutely no effect on the data, it just change the sample size but has no effect on the actual graph, because the graph don't care about groups or what, the graph just takes XvsY and who wins and who loses. If of the 10000 games, 9999 would be TvZ and 1 would be TvP, it would just mean that the TvP graph is meaningless and no conclusion can be made of it. But it wouldn't mean that the result of the 9999 other games is meaningless.
Well that's kind of what I was pointing out, that because it's just looking at solely at matchups. Some other factors that may contribute to those very lofty win percentages. The graphs are a nice start, but I'd like to see something a little more robust. We also can't run out of the house screaming that any particular race is overpowering another based on these graphs.
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But that's the thing, the other factors are maps and patches basically (and metagame/builds evolution). There are no other factors when the sample is big enough.
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On May 04 2011 01:05 MrCon wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2011 23:27 nihlon wrote:On May 03 2011 22:10 MrCon wrote: NASL stats after 3 weeks Protoss Terran Zerg
Protoss [17-17] | 50%[21-17] | 55%[15-20] | 43%
Terran [17-21] | 45%[18-18] | 50%[25-27] | 48%
Zerg [20-15] | 57%[27-25] | 52%[13-13] | 50%
Not 70% winrate in NASL for ZvP :o If I'm understanding your post correctly it's 57% ZvP. That may not be 70 % but it's still really high if we assume those numbers would be a fair representation of ZvP generally in high level play (It's not). So I'm not really sure what your point is. No point, 2 times in this thread people talked about zergs having a 70% winrate in NASL, so I just checked and posted the facts because I don't like misinformation spreading, that's all. That's exactly the same as people here ignoring the significant graph and pointing to the 200 games sample graph to strengthen their "point" (which has the word imbalance in it obviously). The korean graph means absolutly nothing, I feel OP shouldn't even have posted it because it's just a justification for trolls now. I was one of the people that said it but it wasn't exactly misinformation it was outdated information I didn't realize they had updated the statistics yet (I checked 2 days ago) and zvp was 68 % in zergs favor. 57 percent is still quite substantial though I guess Protoss had a decent week in nasal though^^
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On May 04 2011 04:48 Executor1 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 01:05 MrCon wrote:On May 03 2011 23:27 nihlon wrote:On May 03 2011 22:10 MrCon wrote: NASL stats after 3 weeks Protoss Terran Zerg
Protoss [17-17] | 50%[21-17] | 55%[15-20] | 43%
Terran [17-21] | 45%[18-18] | 50%[25-27] | 48%
Zerg [20-15] | 57%[27-25] | 52%[13-13] | 50%
Not 70% winrate in NASL for ZvP :o If I'm understanding your post correctly it's 57% ZvP. That may not be 70 % but it's still really high if we assume those numbers would be a fair representation of ZvP generally in high level play (It's not). So I'm not really sure what your point is. No point, 2 times in this thread people talked about zergs having a 70% winrate in NASL, so I just checked and posted the facts because I don't like misinformation spreading, that's all. That's exactly the same as people here ignoring the significant graph and pointing to the 200 games sample graph to strengthen their "point" (which has the word imbalance in it obviously). The korean graph means absolutly nothing, I feel OP shouldn't even have posted it because it's just a justification for trolls now. I was one of the people that said it but it wasn't exactly misinformation it was outdated information I didn't realize they had updated the statistics yet (I checked 2 days ago) and zvp was 68 % in zergs favor. 57 percent is still quite substantial though I guess Protoss had a decent week in nasal though^^
Two games were WhiteRa's forfeit to July, four were due to Artosis simply being out of his league at the moment (both figuratively and literally). Ignore those 6 outlier datapoints, and the percentage actually falls below 50%.
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SUGGESTION: Add a vertical dotted line for each major patch
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On May 04 2011 05:25 Nakas wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 04:48 Executor1 wrote:On May 04 2011 01:05 MrCon wrote:On May 03 2011 23:27 nihlon wrote:On May 03 2011 22:10 MrCon wrote: NASL stats after 3 weeks Protoss Terran Zerg
Protoss [17-17] | 50%[21-17] | 55%[15-20] | 43%
Terran [17-21] | 45%[18-18] | 50%[25-27] | 48%
Zerg [20-15] | 57%[27-25] | 52%[13-13] | 50%
Not 70% winrate in NASL for ZvP :o If I'm understanding your post correctly it's 57% ZvP. That may not be 70 % but it's still really high if we assume those numbers would be a fair representation of ZvP generally in high level play (It's not). So I'm not really sure what your point is. No point, 2 times in this thread people talked about zergs having a 70% winrate in NASL, so I just checked and posted the facts because I don't like misinformation spreading, that's all. That's exactly the same as people here ignoring the significant graph and pointing to the 200 games sample graph to strengthen their "point" (which has the word imbalance in it obviously). The korean graph means absolutly nothing, I feel OP shouldn't even have posted it because it's just a justification for trolls now. I was one of the people that said it but it wasn't exactly misinformation it was outdated information I didn't realize they had updated the statistics yet (I checked 2 days ago) and zvp was 68 % in zergs favor. 57 percent is still quite substantial though I guess Protoss had a decent week in nasal though^^ Two games were WhiteRa's forfeit to July, four were due to Artosis simply being out of his league at the moment (both figuratively and literally). Ignore those 6 outlier datapoints, and the percentage actually falls below 50%.
Do you really want to go there? I mean I can understand the point about July's WO wins. But come on. Haypro lost 0-2 to Squirtle. When was the last time Haypro won a match against anyone? So take those two Protoss wins out of the equation. Moonglade lost to Axslav. Moonglade is in the same boat as Haypro. He hasn't been playing well at all lately. Machine lose to Hasuobs. I think everyone would agree that Hasu is the far superior player. So get rid of those two losses too. Ignore those 6 outlier datapoints and things dont look so bad again do they?
You can't just go ignoring matches on one side because of player skill and not ignore matches on the other side.
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Thanks for publishing this data. Now whenever a zerg complains I can just link him to this thread 
Basically pro zergs state that they are afraid of ZvP in their pre-match interviews but then proceed to win more than they lose. Rinse and repeat for 6 months, to instill the image that ZvP is imbalanced.
You can't argue against statistics. Sweeeeeeeet.
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On May 04 2011 19:15 W2 wrote:You can't argue against statistics. Sweeeeeeeet. actually you CAN argue against these statistics as theyre not here to prove anything but simply to showcase the.. well.. win/loss ratio per race in international tournaments. it still seems like 80% of the ppl posting in this thread have still not understood this thread wasnt ever, is not and will never be about race imbalance. and besides, whats being said around 10 times now, these statistics are VERY fragile as they only contain wins and losses in the official tournaments and therefore only few games overall.
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Do bear in mind that ZvP could quite easily be balanced (or even Z favoured!) if Zerg has some favourable (or at leas 50% success) all-ins, or Protoss executes their 50%ish allins quite often. Top level Z play has pretty much moved toward just that. I can't recall seeing a top level ZvP that didn't involve an all-in from one side or the other.
That's not a good game though!
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On May 04 2011 Dragar wrote: Do bear in mind that ZvP could quite easily be balanced (or even Z favoured!) if Zerg has some favourable (or at leas 50% success) all-ins, or Protoss executes their 50%ish allins quite often. Top level Z play has pretty much moved toward just that. I can't recall seeing a top level ZvP that didn't involve an all-in from one side or the other.
That's not a good game though!
The game has developed to the point where zerg players need to be aggressive vs protoss most of the time, but calling all aggressive zerg wins "allin" is retarded, which I think is what people seem to want to do.
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Alot of the wins I've been seeing zvp haven't been aggressive all INS. I've seen Alot of success with baneling long investor with baneling carpet bombs on army and probes. Ive seen spanishiwa style were you go broods or ultras wiith infestors and lings and possible some roaches. So many zergs try to defend they are up. The last thing they would want would to be on even footing in a matchup what would they complain about then.
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On May 04 2011 05:25 Nakas wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 04:48 Executor1 wrote:On May 04 2011 01:05 MrCon wrote:On May 03 2011 23:27 nihlon wrote:On May 03 2011 22:10 MrCon wrote: NASL stats after 3 weeks Protoss Terran Zerg
Protoss [17-17] | 50%[21-17] | 55%[15-20] | 43%
Terran [17-21] | 45%[18-18] | 50%[25-27] | 48%
Zerg [20-15] | 57%[27-25] | 52%[13-13] | 50%
Not 70% winrate in NASL for ZvP :o If I'm understanding your post correctly it's 57% ZvP. That may not be 70 % but it's still really high if we assume those numbers would be a fair representation of ZvP generally in high level play (It's not). So I'm not really sure what your point is. No point, 2 times in this thread people talked about zergs having a 70% winrate in NASL, so I just checked and posted the facts because I don't like misinformation spreading, that's all. That's exactly the same as people here ignoring the significant graph and pointing to the 200 games sample graph to strengthen their "point" (which has the word imbalance in it obviously). The korean graph means absolutly nothing, I feel OP shouldn't even have posted it because it's just a justification for trolls now. I was one of the people that said it but it wasn't exactly misinformation it was outdated information I didn't realize they had updated the statistics yet (I checked 2 days ago) and zvp was 68 % in zergs favor. 57 percent is still quite substantial though I guess Protoss had a decent week in nasal though^^ Two games were WhiteRa's forfeit to July, four were due to Artosis simply being out of his league at the moment (both figuratively and literally). Ignore those 6 outlier datapoints, and the percentage actually falls below 50%. Lol that's a little bit ridiculous like the other guy said may as well ignore a bunch of protoss matches too then like squirtle cd haypro or Haskins vs machine then as well if your going to ignore artosis match as those players have been having a bad streak and were outclassed as well.
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On May 04 2011 22:23 Sajiki wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 19:15 W2 wrote:You can't argue against statistics. Sweeeeeeeet. actually you CAN argue against these statistics as theyre not here to prove anything but simply to showcase the.. well.. win/loss ratio per race in international tournaments. it still seems like 80% of the ppl posting in this thread have still not understood this thread wasnt ever, is not and will never be about race imbalance. and besides, whats being said around 10 times now, these statistics are VERY fragile as they only contain wins and losses in the official tournaments and therefore only few games overall. Like day 9 said yesterday what do we have to judge racial balance beyond wins and losses. It's the best way to judge without being subjective.
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Thanks for publishing this data. Now whenever a zerg complains I can just link him to this thread
Basically pro zergs state that they are afraid of ZvP in their pre-match interviews but then proceed to win more than they lose. Rinse and repeat for 6 months, to instill the image that ZvP is imbalanced.
You can't argue against statistics. Sweeeeeeeet. Before you do that I suggest you realise that the only statistic in favor of zerg in ZvP is one based on 10 games played in the GSL in April.
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On May 04 2011 17:49 jmbthirteen wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 05:25 Nakas wrote:On May 04 2011 04:48 Executor1 wrote:On May 04 2011 01:05 MrCon wrote:On May 03 2011 23:27 nihlon wrote:On May 03 2011 22:10 MrCon wrote: NASL stats after 3 weeks Protoss Terran Zerg
Protoss [17-17] | 50%[21-17] | 55%[15-20] | 43%
Terran [17-21] | 45%[18-18] | 50%[25-27] | 48%
Zerg [20-15] | 57%[27-25] | 52%[13-13] | 50%
Not 70% winrate in NASL for ZvP :o If I'm understanding your post correctly it's 57% ZvP. That may not be 70 % but it's still really high if we assume those numbers would be a fair representation of ZvP generally in high level play (It's not). So I'm not really sure what your point is. No point, 2 times in this thread people talked about zergs having a 70% winrate in NASL, so I just checked and posted the facts because I don't like misinformation spreading, that's all. That's exactly the same as people here ignoring the significant graph and pointing to the 200 games sample graph to strengthen their "point" (which has the word imbalance in it obviously). The korean graph means absolutly nothing, I feel OP shouldn't even have posted it because it's just a justification for trolls now. I was one of the people that said it but it wasn't exactly misinformation it was outdated information I didn't realize they had updated the statistics yet (I checked 2 days ago) and zvp was 68 % in zergs favor. 57 percent is still quite substantial though I guess Protoss had a decent week in nasal though^^ Two games were WhiteRa's forfeit to July, four were due to Artosis simply being out of his league at the moment (both figuratively and literally). Ignore those 6 outlier datapoints, and the percentage actually falls below 50%. Do you really want to go there? I mean I can understand the point about July's WO wins. But come on. Haypro lost 0-2 to Squirtle. When was the last time Haypro won a match against anyone? So take those two Protoss wins out of the equation. Moonglade lost to Axslav. Moonglade is in the same boat as Haypro. He hasn't been playing well at all lately. Machine lose to Hasuobs. I think everyone would agree that Hasu is the far superior player. So get rid of those two losses too. Ignore those 6 outlier datapoints and things dont look so bad again do they? You can't just go ignoring matches on one side because of player skill and not ignore matches on the other side.
Haypro won that TL tourney over TLO and Nony. He lives and trains in Korea. Dont for a moment think Haypro isnt one of the best Zergs in the world.
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On May 04 2011 22:30 Dragar wrote: Do bear in mind that ZvP could quite easily be balanced (or even Z favoured!) if Zerg has some favourable (or at leas 50% success) all-ins, or Protoss executes their 50%ish allins quite often. Top level Z play has pretty much moved toward just that. I can't recall seeing a top level ZvP that didn't involve an all-in from one side or the other.
That's not a good game though! Allins are a common and necessary phase. The way Zerg allins are killing so many Protoss players, indicates they are being too greedy. Their builds will adjust for this, and the allins will stop working. In exchange, the Protoss mid-late game will suffer.
It's indisputably possible for ALL of the allins being used now to be stopped. It's just about figuring out how to stop it without hamstringing yourself economically.
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I think part of this "P is OP and Z is UP" comes from the fact that many top Zerg players whine about balance and the power of toss. Idra being the most upfront. And that reflects to these forums and other players.
Statistics threads are a slap to the face for "I think that...." threads.
More of this thank you!
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I think regardless of whether z or p has the advantage in that matchup, it's pretty poorly designed and not that enjoyable right now from a spectator point of view. Zergs tend to have to find a way to end the games at an early stage, and don't have the tools to compete in late game scenarios. Even if the matchup is at a perfect 50% win rate right now, I still wouldn't mind blizzard making some pretty large adjustments.
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