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Forum Index > SC2 General
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l3iRdMaN
Profile Joined February 2004
United States72 Posts
May 06 2011 19:33 GMT
#401
On May 07 2011 02:53 Cloak wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 07 2011 01:09 l3iRdMaN wrote:
On May 06 2011 15:44 Cloak wrote:
On May 06 2011 14:29 l3iRdMaN wrote:
On May 06 2011 02:42 War Horse wrote:
On May 06 2011 00:47 l3iRdMaN wrote:
lol sample size

8000 games is a pretty good sample size bro

User was warned for this post



was referring to the 1k korean sample size... brooooooo

anything <3-4k is subject to variance. perfect example is the apparent inferiority that is protoss on the korean ladder.

however when we look at the international graph everything's pretttttyyyy, pretty even.


Actually all samples are subject to variance, which is why we do significance tests. A chi square will tell you how confident you can be that the lopsided ratios are nonrandom.



the confidence level of a 1k sample size is somewhere between 40-60% (nowhere near enough to make an accurate assessment of 1's EV), where anything over 4k is probably above 85%. these numbers are just off the top of my head but if you could enlighten us with your fancy chi square math maybe we could get some specific numbers? everyone making a huge fuss about protoss inferiority is jumping the gun imo. (i play protoss as well)


I'm not saying either/or, just saying that there is a legit way to determine the statistic's validity. I'm just shutting down the notion that we have any idea what's a sufficient sample size without involving math.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson's_chi-square_test

Point is that the null hypothesis (null= itz balanced guis, itz just randum) gets far less likely when the outcomes get far beyond the standard deviation. I'm too lazy to crunch though. Other people are more inclined.


i'm speaking from poker experience so i could be completely off... but any sample size >4k games had a relatively high %%% chance of being an accurate gauge of one's EV. the thing that makes it tough with SC2 is the vast range of skill between a bronze level nub and some of the top pros. what might appear as "imba" in gold could be easily countered in masters... as a result we have heaps of opinions clashing from all levels of skill into this huge never-ending debate
ATUkno
Profile Joined May 2011
United States17 Posts
June 08 2011 20:28 GMT
#402
is there an updated version of this?
Dalguno
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States2446 Posts
June 08 2011 20:29 GMT
#403
On June 09 2011 05:28 ATUkno wrote:
is there an updated version of this?


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=231113
"I'm gonna keep making drones cause I'm a baller, and ballers make drones." -Snute
trippycarrot
Profile Joined June 2010
United States37 Posts
June 08 2011 20:30 GMT
#404
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=231113
Rasun
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States787 Posts
June 08 2011 20:33 GMT
#405
Very interesting stuff, the difference in Korea is surprising, but like you said its a much smaller sample size so that could be a big part of it.
"People need to just settle the fuck down!"- Djwheat <3
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