On November 11 2014 10:17 Xeris wrote:
Article on espn saying Davis may be a better player than LeBron one day... anyone read the article know if they're simply saying Davis will be the next best player in the league, or if he'll historically be considered a better player than LeBron?
Tonight, Anthony Davis and LeBron James will meet in Cleveland, when Davis' New Orleans Pelicans face James' Cleveland Cavaliers. That might not be the last time their paths intersect in the near future, and not only in terms of the return matchup Dec. 12 in the Big Easy.
As both players age, it's seemingly inevitable that Davis will catch James, possibly sooner rather than later.
(Gradual) Decline of the King
Of all the explanations posited for James' slow start in his return to Cleveland, from his offseason weight loss to a hidden injury, the simplest one is his age. James will be 30 on Dec. 30, putting him firmly beyond the peak age for an NBA star. In general, NBA players appear to peak statistically at age 27, although it's more accurate to describe a peak range between ages 25 and 29.
While stars play by a slightly different set of rules, they too are generally in decline by age 30. Here's how the 12 players with at least 150 career wins above replacement player who have entered the league since 1990 have aged on average, as a percentage of their best single-season rating:
Kevin Pelton/ESPN.com
This group peaked at age 28, and just two of the players (point guards Jason Kidd and Steve Nash) enjoyed their best season after age 29.
As important as the concept of peak age is, a single aging curve obscures some of the important details about the aging process. Really, there are two effects battling against each other. Players peak athletically before age 27, but they continue to add skills and experience throughout their career.
To try to quantify the distinction, I separated statistics that largely measure athleticism (offensive rebound percentage, steal percentage and block percentage) from those that primarily measure learned skills (shooting, turnover percentage and foul percentage). Among players with careers of 10 years or longer, here are the average aging curves for both types of stats, along with the combination of the two.
Kevin Pelton/ESPN.com
The graph shows that athleticism-based stats (blue) generally peak at the start of a player's career and trend downward over time. Meanwhile, players continue to improve their skills and experience (red) until late in their careers. The green line approximates the overall aging curve. Before age 27, players gain more skills and experience than they lose athleticism. After this point, the athleticism drain causes them to decline.
That's generally what we've seen with James. His improvement as a shooter, along with the selectivity playing with great teammates in Miami afforded him, allowed James to become more efficient than ever deep into his 20s. We'll likely see that continue with the Cavaliers once James is comfortable with his new teammates -- and, perhaps more importantly, as the younger ones improve at running the offense.
At the same time, James' waning athleticism has manifested itself in weaker defensive stats, particularly in terms of blocked shots, and fewer offensive rebounds. It became clear during the Heat's 2014 playoff run that James wasn't merely coasting during the regular season. He isn't the same athlete he once was, and he shouldn't be expected to be. We're at the point where James' gains in skills and experience are unlikely to entirely overcome this drop-off.
The rise of Davis
The same aging curve working against James continues to push Davis inexorably toward superstardom. At 21, the Pelicans' big man needn't yet worry about losing athleticism, and he seems to improve his skills by the day. Early in the season, Davis leads qualified players in PER and win percentage (the equivalent per-minute WARP rating); he is second in win shares per 48 minutes and box plus-minus.
Davis will have a tough time sustaining some of his early numbers, most notably a substantial uptick in his block percentage from last season's league-leading mark that can be traced to a nine-block season opener. Other improvements are likely to be more sustainable, such as his increased usage rate and a drop in turnover rate. We'll see where that leaves Davis relative to James and Kevin Durant in the NBA's hierarchy of stars, once Durant has returned from the fractured bone in his foot that has sidelined him.
It's now clearer than ever that, barring injury, Davis is on track to become the league's best player.
And that moment, which once seemed distant in the future, might already be within view. It's simply a matter of time -- and age.
EPT
