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On April 16 2013 04:35 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
In 1993 Potvin's save percentage was .910
and Roy's was .894
Roy wins the Conne Smythe... Potvin is busy kicking pucks into his own net.
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Great example!!
Of cherry picking a stat from one year in order to make a false point. Notice that people are discussing Fleury's career playoff avergage? Whereas you picked one regular-season where Roy had some of the worst numbers of his career and Potvin had some of the best? These are called exceptions. And with your PhD in statistics from Hogwarts, you should know that the exception is not the norm. Wanna hear something crazy? Patrick Roy's career playoff save percentage is very, very good. Potvin's? Not so much. The system works!
You understand that what you just did completely undermines the concept of an average right? With an average, you want to use all of the data available to make it as useful as possible. Hence why we look at the sum of Fleury's career work including BOTH his good and his bad years.
This argument has gotten stupid.
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speaking of CUP WINZ, Steve Tambellini—whose single lap around the rink holding Lord Stanley makes him better than the linkes of Jarome Igilna, Marcel Dionne, Pat Lafontane, Mike Gartner, Pierre Turgeon, Adam Oates, Phil Housley, etc—was fired by the Loliers today
yay fraccid!
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Oilers are certainly not the most dysfunctional franchise. Otherwise the hockey gods would not smile upon them with 3 No. 1 overall picks. Also, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Toronto Maple Leafs are likely more dysfunctional.
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Can't believe dude's still arguing about Fleury being overrated... he played on a team that was basically at the level of a farm team for his first two years, he won a Stanley Cup and he's having another excellent season this year. If he's not a Top 5 goalie then he's Number 6.
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Lundqvist, Price, Rinne, Rask, Schneider, and even Miller are probably significantly better. Quick, Bernier, Howard, Luongo, and perhaps Crawford could make a case for being better. I'd put Fleury on the level of Emery, Bryzgalov, Niemi, and Anderson: definitely a starter with the ability to play well for stretches.
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On April 16 2013 06:22 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Can't believe dude's still arguing about Fleury being overrated... he played on a team that was basically at the level of a farm team for his first two years, he won a Stanley Cup and he's having another excellent season this year. If he's not a Top 5 goalie then he's Number 6.
They are arguing about his career playoff stats. When his team was Malkin-Crosby not the garbage he played behind. Remember last year when Philly scored 4 goals per game against him? Or the year before that when Tampa did the same. Was that a farm team?
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On April 14 2013 16:12 Flaccid wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2013 08:57 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
we can either go down the practical reality road of examining real results by real NHL goalies. In which case we can look at the numbers they put up in the NHL. Show nested quote + smart NHL teams know these statistics do not mean much they avoid risking big picks on goalies. Show nested quote +Patrick Roy was drafted 51st overall on the basis are great "averages" like GAA and SavePercentage .... etc etc.
Martin Brodeur ..20th. Show nested quote +NHL Teams realize how meaningless these statistics are... their drafting behaviour proves this Or not. Though I suppose theoretical statistics implies using statistics to back up a theoretical argument that no one had in the first place. Everyone knows that the how a player transitions from junior to NHL competition is unpredictable - especially for defenders and goaltenders. Which is why we were talking about NHL numbers. Also I'm a goalie in quidditch so don't argue with me.
In general, "career averages" of streaky players do not mean much because you're never getting that "average player".
And stats for goalies are even less meaningful than other positions.
in 1993 Potvin had a Save Percentage of .910 and Roy .. 0.875.
Those are NHL numbers.
Again, they don't mean much. Roy is far better than Potvin and was far better than Potvin in 1993.
There are dozens of VODs of every playoff game from 1993. Watch Potvin and Roy and see for yourself who the better goalie is.
Roy went 51st and Belfour went undrafted.
i can go on and on and on listing dozens of goalies whose "career save percentage" don't mean much.
the numbers are even less meaningful for streaky goalies.
Brodeur is getting bored tonight.
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I want Columbus to make the playoffs just so that Bobrovsky can win the Hart trophy.
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me too. except i dont think he should have to win the hart to get it. but of course, the voters will pick someone like Toews or Crosby because of all the media hype behind them.
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On April 17 2013 16:45 Sub40APM wrote:
me too. except i dont think he should have to win the hart to get it. but of course, the voters will pick someone like Toews or Crosby because of all the media hype behind them.
Goalies need to have a beyond amazing year to get harts. Bryz is close to that. Probably a vezina though for sure
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i dont think he is hart level (as much as i think it is bs that goalies hardly ever get the hard, sit was playing out of his damn mind) but probably bezina. in my mind, his closest competitors are schneidder, rask, hank and maybe niemi. All of those dudes have at least above average to great teams. columbus is pretty clearly bringing up the rear as far as talent level, and bobrovsky has better stats than everyone else.
if anderson played maybe 7-10 more games i could consider him. crawford played too little as well, plus I also think he's got a little bit of the MAF 'ho hum goalie on an insane team' thing going on as well
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Leafs finally have a result commensurate with their play.
They were awful against the Canadiens and Devils.
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It's interesting really because more often than not they're out shot and spend far less time with the puck and the turnovers. ._.
It's amazing that they have as many points as they do. I haven't really been impressed by their play for sometime.
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short season variance/luck + a pretty good offense + reimer/scrivens playing much better are the reason they are where they are now
all advanced stats point to leafs being one of the more lucky teams in the league this year.
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just a question for my fellow TLers
how would you compare Price to the rest of starters in the league?
Top 10 goalie? Top 15 ? just curious about other teams' fans perspective on him.
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Sorry, I only rank goalies with Cup rings and lots of wins
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On April 16 2013 05:48 Flaccid wrote:
This argument has gotten stupid.
its this simple ...
a streaky goalie's career average does a poor job describing his current play..
the other content i've provided just amplifies this basic point.
On April 18 2013 00:58 QuanticHawk wrote:
Sorry, I only rank goalies with Cup rings and lots of wins
like Felix Potvin and Justin Pogge and ...
On April 18 2013 00:50 QuanticHawk wrote:
short season variance/luck + a pretty good offense + reimer/scrivens playing much better are the reason they are where they are now
all advanced stats point to leafs being one of the more lucky teams in the league this year.
these are "advanced stats" ... woah... not "regular stats"
then pulling out the vague goalie thing...using all ur stats you should've predicted Reimer's improved play.
the playoffs are only BO7 any how... so does it really matter who is really better?
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thanks for all this hearsay... can you please be even more vague in your next evaluation.
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On April 18 2013 00:54 monx wrote:
just a question for my fellow TLers
how would you compare Price to the rest of starters in the league?
Top 10 goalie? Top 15 ? just curious about other teams' fans perspective on him.
It'd be harsh to put Price outside of the top 10. He's a top 6 or 7 for me. The only goaltender I would rank above the rest is Lundqvist.
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On April 18 2013 00:50 QuanticHawk wrote:
short season variance/luck + a pretty good offense + reimer/scrivens playing much better are the reason they are where they are now
all advanced stats point to leafs being one of the more lucky teams in the league this year.
They have the highest team PDO and one of the lower Fenwick Close %.
http://theleafsnation.com/2013/4/15/pdo-numbers-by-nhl-team-apr-15/score
Like you said, a short season doesn't provide enough time to regress back to the mean. So, if people believe the math, they have been the luckiest team in the league while also doing a poor job with puck possession in close games. Which is pretty much how it all looks when you watch a Leaf's game.
edit: These numbers are not always useful, but can indicate how well a team 'dictates' how a game unfolds, or how much control it exercises over its own destiny. A high FC% with a low PDO can mean a team is able to control games but is not getting the bounces - in which case they can still be having success but can expect more success as things level out. A low FC% with a high PDO means that a team is getting out-played but is still getting enough good fortune to have some success, such as Columbus.
What I mean is that the PDO value taken alone doesn't mean much. A team can create their own luck and have a high PDO simply by being good. But in conjunction with FC% it can illustrate the overall effectiveness of a team.
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EPT
