[IEM] Katowice Day 2

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arctics86

Germany797 Posts

January 18 2013 06:49 GMT

Friday, Jan 18 11:00 GMT (+00:00)

IEM Season VII - Katowice

ESL TV |

TaKeTV |

ESL TV Poland

casted by Apollo, Kaelaris & Khaldor

1st Place => Quarterfinals, 2nd and 3rd => Ro12
(Wiki)

IEM Season VII - Katowice

On January 18 2013 19:20 TheBB wrote:
It's probably the moment of truth!

+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +

Group A

Snute
      Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.21-3.79)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 88.64%
      Most likely place: 1st (48.54%)

TLO
      Expected score: 3.17-1.83 (sets: 7.26-4.91)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 72.80%
      Most likely place: 2nd (26.96%)

Dream
      Expected score: 2.86-2.14 (sets: 6.80-5.60)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.35%
      Most likely place: 3rd (21.67%)

Grubby
      Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.08-6.00)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 44.68%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.79%)

mOOnGLaDe
      Expected score: 2.23-2.77 (sets: 5.64-6.50)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 33.70%
      Most likely place: 5th (34.82%)

Tarson
      Expected score: 0.48-4.52 (sets: 2.13-9.33)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.84%
      Most likely place: 6th (86.75%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
     mOOnGLaDe:    5.51%   34.82%   25.97%   17.81%   10.87%    5.02%
        Grubby:    2.70%   25.83%   26.79%   21.84%   15.29%    7.56%
         Snute:    0.22%    3.30%    7.85%   14.71%   25.40%   48.54%
         Dream:    3.66%   16.26%   20.74%   21.67%   21.32%   16.35%
           TLO:    1.16%    9.62%   16.43%   23.31%   26.96%   22.53%
        Tarson:   86.75%   10.18%    2.23%    0.66%    0.16%    0.01%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
     mOOnGLaDe:    1.76%   20.87%   40.07%   27.99%    8.45%    0.87%
        Grubby:    0.55%   13.87%   36.63%   34.93%   12.57%    1.45%
         Snute:    0.03%    0.75%    7.73%   27.81%   41.42%   22.26%
         Dream:    1.11%    9.07%   26.35%   35.49%   22.54%    5.43%
           TLO:    0.17%    3.79%   19.76%   38.84%   29.74%    7.70%
        Tarson:   59.67%   33.28%    6.47%    0.55%    0.02%         

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
     mOOnGLaDe:    0.05%    0.29%    0.58%    1.13%    3.87%    6.98%    7.56%    9.51%   13.69%   13.09%   10.05%   10.27%    9.14%    5.22%    3.42%    2.86%    1.31%    0.53%    0.28%    0.12%    0.03%
        Grubby:    0.01%    0.09%    0.19%    0.47%    2.05%    4.35%    5.34%    7.25%   11.84%   12.83%   10.72%   11.98%   12.00%    7.61%    4.95%    4.30%    2.33%    0.88%    0.45%    0.31%    0.07%
         Snute:             0.01%    0.00%    0.02%    0.06%    0.17%    0.33%    0.74%    1.77%    2.89%    3.69%    6.58%   10.06%   10.20%   10.61%   14.85%   13.30%    8.38%    7.85%    6.46%    2.03%
         Dream:    0.02%    0.15%    0.31%    0.57%    1.47%    2.69%    3.49%    5.17%    8.09%    9.77%    9.21%   11.21%   12.39%    9.49%    7.97%    7.69%    4.76%    2.49%    1.85%    0.98%    0.22%
           TLO:    0.00%    0.03%    0.05%    0.11%    0.47%    1.06%    1.51%    2.74%    5.73%    7.40%    7.94%   11.14%   14.07%   11.41%    9.78%   10.68%    7.33%    3.62%    2.71%    1.76%    0.45%
        Tarson:   12.35%   23.90%   16.62%   11.94%   13.67%   10.15%    4.60%    3.05%    2.12%    0.92%    0.34%    0.21%    0.08%    0.02%    0.01%    0.00%

+ Show Spoiler [Group B] +

Group B

PartinG
      Expected score: 4.51-0.49 (sets: 9.31-1.99)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 99.18%
      Most likely place: 1st (75.35%)

LucifroN
      Expected score: 3.68-1.32 (sets: 7.99-3.71)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 91.46%
      Most likely place: 2nd (53.89%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.32-2.68 (sets: 5.65-6.19)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 40.86%
      Most likely place: 4th (31.25%)

MaNa
      Expected score: 2.21-2.79 (sets: 5.52-6.39)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 35.00%
      Most likely place: 5th (33.37%)

Tefel
      Expected score: 2.17-2.83 (sets: 5.30-6.52)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 33.47%
      Most likely place: 5th (33.74%)

Siphonn
      Expected score: 0.12-4.88 (sets: 0.87-9.84)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.03%
      Most likely place: 6th (96.10%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
       Siphonn:   96.10%    3.55%    0.32%    0.03%                  
           Bly:    0.78%   27.11%   31.25%   29.64%    9.77%    1.45%
      LucifroN:    0.01%    2.13%    6.40%   16.82%   53.89%   20.75%
       PartinG:    0.00%    0.11%    0.71%    3.61%   20.22%   75.35%
          MaNa:    0.85%   33.37%   30.78%   24.18%    8.99%    1.83%
         Tefel:    2.25%   33.74%   30.54%   25.73%    7.13%    0.61%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
       Siphonn:   88.44%   11.16%    0.40%    0.00%                  
           Bly:    0.40%   15.35%   43.79%   32.91%    7.17%    0.37%
      LucifroN:    0.00%    0.50%    6.76%   30.17%   49.56%   13.01%
       PartinG:    0.00%    0.01%    0.40%    6.45%   34.96%   58.18%
          MaNa:    0.46%   21.28%   43.26%   27.71%    6.75%    0.53%
         Tefel:    1.22%   20.15%   44.43%   29.39%    4.70%    0.10%

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
       Siphonn:   43.39%   33.82%    9.95%    5.62%    4.83%    1.72%    0.35%    0.19%    0.10%    0.02%    0.01%                                                                                          
           Bly:    0.01%    0.08%    0.15%    0.45%    2.43%    5.17%    5.95%    8.57%   15.32%   14.96%   10.95%   12.06%   11.21%    5.59%    3.01%    2.42%    1.17%    0.31%    0.14%    0.06%    0.01%
      LucifroN:                      0.00%             0.03%    0.11%    0.22%    0.43%    1.36%    2.53%    3.40%    6.14%   11.38%   10.88%   11.79%   18.11%   16.19%    7.14%    4.61%    4.26%    1.42%
       PartinG:                                        0.00%    0.00%             0.01%    0.03%    0.12%    0.23%    0.64%    1.89%    2.92%    4.01%    9.76%   14.91%   11.79%   15.06%   24.37%   14.28%
          MaNa:    0.02%    0.09%    0.18%    0.49%    3.27%    7.20%    7.64%    9.25%   15.33%   14.86%   10.11%   10.22%    9.34%    5.01%    2.89%    2.29%    1.17%    0.34%    0.20%    0.08%    0.02%
         Tefel:    0.06%    0.26%    0.43%    1.05%    4.14%    7.28%    7.43%   10.41%   16.38%   14.22%    9.94%   11.31%    8.98%    3.86%    2.07%    1.48%    0.57%    0.09%    0.02%    0.02%    0.00%

+ Show Spoiler [Group C] +

Group C

YoDa
      Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.23-3.90)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 89.85%
      Most likely place: 1st (57.05%)

Socke
      Expected score: 2.85-2.15 (sets: 6.74-5.51)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 65.94%
      Most likely place: 2nd (25.88%)

jookTo
      Expected score: 2.53-2.47 (sets: 6.22-6.16)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 52.55%
      Most likely place: 3rd (20.68%)

DieStar
      Expected score: 2.01-2.99 (sets: 5.40-7.04)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 32.92%
      Most likely place: 6th (25.90%)

Verdi
      Expected score: 2.02-2.98 (sets: 5.24-6.95)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 31.64%
      Most likely place: 5th (23.57%)

Nerchio
      Expected score: 1.84-3.16 (sets: 5.03-7.29)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 27.11%
      Most likely place: 6th (31.10%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
        jookTo:   12.47%   16.43%   18.56%   20.68%   20.64%   11.22%
         Socke:    6.35%   11.08%   16.63%   22.54%   25.88%   17.53%
       Nerchio:   31.10%   23.73%   18.06%   13.67%    9.52%    3.92%
          YoDa:    1.16%    3.02%    5.98%   10.87%   21.93%   57.05%
         Verdi:   23.03%   23.57%   21.77%   16.78%   10.76%    4.10%
       DieStar:   25.90%   22.17%   19.01%   15.46%   11.28%    6.18%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
        jookTo:    2.38%   14.00%   32.17%   33.75%   15.40%    2.30%
         Socke:    0.58%    7.68%   27.65%   38.48%   21.60%    4.01%
       Nerchio:    9.28%   29.53%   35.64%   19.89%    5.20%    0.45%
          YoDa:    0.08%    1.15%    8.22%   26.46%   40.85%   23.24%
         Verdi:    5.28%   24.74%   39.24%   24.96%    5.41%    0.36%
       DieStar:    7.43%   25.86%   34.81%   23.33%    7.55%    1.01%

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
        jookTo:    0.08%    0.43%    0.75%    1.17%    2.60%    4.55%    5.37%    7.22%   10.69%   11.06%   10.09%   11.45%   11.09%    7.68%    5.73%    4.88%    2.78%    1.24%    0.71%    0.33%    0.08%
         Socke:    0.01%    0.10%    0.19%    0.33%    1.14%    2.26%    3.03%    4.79%    8.38%   10.03%    9.73%   12.44%   13.49%    9.85%    7.90%    7.17%    4.72%    2.08%    1.37%    0.82%    0.18%
       Nerchio:    0.41%    2.03%    3.24%    4.04%    7.02%   10.32%    9.82%   10.72%   12.68%   10.63%    7.97%    7.42%    5.73%    3.25%    2.20%    1.51%    0.60%    0.23%    0.13%    0.04%    0.01%
          YoDa:             0.01%    0.01%    0.04%    0.15%    0.26%    0.46%    0.98%    2.11%    3.00%    4.12%    6.57%    9.70%    9.88%   10.91%   14.42%   12.51%    8.52%    7.96%    6.36%    2.04%
         Verdi:    0.25%    1.15%    1.80%    2.74%    5.73%    8.52%    8.68%   10.89%   13.76%   12.04%    9.23%    9.11%    7.33%    3.91%    2.15%    1.61%    0.72%    0.20%    0.12%    0.05%    0.01%
       DieStar:    0.32%    1.40%    2.47%    3.26%    5.81%    8.94%    9.04%    9.55%   12.07%   11.07%    8.85%    8.62%    6.91%    4.25%    3.04%    2.28%    1.11%    0.52%    0.30%    0.17%    0.02%

+ Show Spoiler [Group D] +

Group D

VortiX
      Expected score: 3.84-1.16 (sets: 8.31-3.53)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 93.94%
      Most likely place: 1st (60.61%)

First
      Expected score: 2.93-2.07 (sets: 6.91-5.41)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 67.97%
      Most likely place: 2nd (26.03%)

Kas
      Expected score: 2.47-2.53 (sets: 6.04-6.18)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.45%
      Most likely place: 3rd (22.53%)

Golden
      Expected score: 2.11-2.89 (sets: 5.42-6.83)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 36.07%
      Most likely place: 5th (22.47%)

Daisy
      Expected score: 2.05-2.95 (sets: 5.31-6.91)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 32.18%
      Most likely place: 5th (24.40%)

ParanOid
      Expected score: 1.60-3.40 (sets: 4.53-7.66)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 19.39%
      Most likely place: 6th (39.67%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
        Golden:   20.90%   22.47%   20.55%   18.15%   13.65%    4.27%
        VortiX:    0.37%    1.59%    4.10%    9.83%   23.51%   60.61%
           Kas:   11.55%   16.92%   21.08%   22.53%   19.85%    8.07%
         First:    5.99%   10.47%   15.56%   20.80%   26.03%   21.14%
         Daisy:   21.51%   24.40%   21.92%   17.39%   10.56%    4.23%
      ParanOid:   39.67%   24.16%   16.78%   11.31%    6.40%    1.68%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
        Golden:    5.01%   22.61%   37.22%   26.97%    7.76%    0.44%
        VortiX:    0.00%    0.34%    5.07%   27.20%   44.69%   22.70%
           Kas:    1.88%   14.11%   35.13%   34.56%   13.11%    1.21%
         First:    0.67%    7.64%   25.25%   36.65%   23.86%    5.93%
         Daisy:    5.00%   23.78%   39.17%   25.59%    6.06%    0.41%
      ParanOid:   13.22%   34.88%   34.00%   14.99%    2.79%    0.12%

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
        Golden:    0.22%    1.06%    1.77%    2.39%    4.96%    8.00%    8.14%   10.00%   13.31%   11.55%    9.52%    9.81%    7.87%    4.69%    3.07%    2.19%    0.97%    0.28%    0.10%    0.08%    0.01%
        VortiX:                      0.00%    0.00%    0.03%    0.08%    0.13%    0.34%    1.14%    1.85%    2.68%    5.60%    9.55%   10.57%   10.76%   15.77%   14.98%    8.71%    8.04%    7.30%    2.47%
           Kas:    0.08%    0.34%    0.63%    0.99%    2.56%    4.59%    5.55%    7.58%   11.80%   12.07%   10.46%   12.14%   11.37%    6.83%    5.28%    4.13%    2.24%    0.76%    0.38%    0.19%    0.02%
         First:    0.02%    0.09%    0.20%    0.38%    0.99%    2.20%    3.02%    4.57%    7.58%    9.20%    9.10%   11.73%   12.77%    9.85%    8.45%    8.24%    5.33%    2.78%    2.09%    1.14%    0.26%
         Daisy:    0.27%    1.01%    1.77%    2.49%    5.47%    8.41%    8.36%   10.44%   13.74%   12.29%    9.34%    9.50%    7.39%    4.01%    2.55%    1.79%    0.77%    0.24%    0.10%    0.06%    0.01%
      ParanOid:    0.90%    3.14%    4.73%    5.49%    9.60%   12.49%   10.73%   11.05%   12.29%    9.59%    6.36%    5.67%    3.78%    1.98%    1.05%    0.76%    0.29%    0.07%    0.04%    0.02%

Judging from the other predictions I've seen, people might be overestimating Nerchio and underestimating TLO. Then again, Nerchio has good results since last list update that are not yet accounted for.

MoooN1

Germany128 Posts

January 18 2013 07:09 GMT

yea these are pretty tought groups

c seems to be the "easiest"

good luck to tlo, snute and socke

styLesdavis

Germany833 Posts

January 18 2013 07:10 GMT

TLO! SNUTE!
Liquid fighting!

inFeZa

Australia556 Posts

January 18 2013 07:13 GMT

looking gooooooooooood!

kafkaesque

Germany2006 Posts

January 18 2013 07:14 GMT

Who are the English casters for this?

Rewera

Poland354 Posts

January 18 2013 07:26 GMT

6 from Poland vs. 6 from Korea.

Fight of the century upon us.

This will determine order of Starcraft world in the hearts, for those who will in years look back to reminisce.

Laryleprakon

New Zealand9496 Posts

January 18 2013 07:31 GMT

Yoda to win it all!!

Should be a fun day.

True_Spike

Poland3433 Posts

January 18 2013 07:32 GMT

On January 18 2013 16:14 kafkaesque wrote:
Who are the English casters for this?

Khaldor/ Apollo/ Kaelaris + the troll couch in the form of Tod / qxc / Jarret Cale (from PP).

StelleWind

China76 Posts

January 18 2013 07:33 GMT

parting fighting !

still cant believe he lost to nestea in iron squid

Daswollvieh

5553 Posts

January 18 2013 07:36 GMT

#10

On January 18 2013 16:26 Rewera wrote:
6 from Poland vs. 6 from Korea.

Fight of the century upon us.

This will determine order of Starcraft world in the hearts, for those who will in years look back to reminisce.

7 from Korea. My condolences.

True_Spike

Poland3433 Posts

January 18 2013 07:38 GMT

#11

Pictures:

http://www.rakaka.se/index.php?newsID=20542

GulpyBlinkeyes

United States1449 Posts

January 18 2013 07:41 GMT

#12

Those are some really nice groups! Good racial distribution and pretty even skill levels.

If I had to pick a most difficult group, I might give D the nod, just barely. It may not have some of the very tip top players like Parting or Lucifron, but the overall skill of all those guys is so high that it feels like the most competitive group to me.

Rewera

Poland354 Posts

January 18 2013 07:43 GMT

#13

On January 18 2013 16:36 Daswollvieh wrote:

Show nested quote +

7 from Korea. My condolences.

Even more glorious victory when comes.

FrostedMiniWheats

United States30730 Posts

January 18 2013 07:44 GMT

#14

C'mon Yoda, it's time to become a Jedi Master :p

First winning would be cool too. IM's gone a couple of months without a new championship, that's unacceptable.

ROOTheognis

United States4482 Posts

January 18 2013 08:08 GMT

#15

Are they doing all the groups today? O_o seems like a lot.

Inzan1ty

1163 Posts

January 18 2013 08:35 GMT

#16

PartinG will have a field day crushing those weak souls

Zerg.Zilla

Hungary5029 Posts

January 18 2013 08:38 GMT

#17

Didn't watch the open bracket...Ret already eliminated?!

Anyway Go Go JookTo,mOOnGLaDe,VortiX!

Flamehaze

Poland67 Posts

January 18 2013 08:38 GMT

#18

A:Snute,Dream,Grubby
B

arting,Mana,Lucifron
C:Nerchio,Yoda,jookTo
D:Golden,Vortix,First.

In no particular oder.

Rewera

Poland354 Posts

January 18 2013 08:53 GMT

#19

I bet:

A: 1) Dream 2) Grubby 3) Snute 4) TLO 5) Moonglade 6) Tarson
B: 1) Lucifron 2) PartinG 3) Bly 4) Tefel 5) Mana 6) Siphonn
C: 1) Yoda 2) Verdi 3) Nerchio 4) Socke 5) YookTO 6) DieStar
D: 1) Golden 2) Daisy 3) Vortix 4) First 5) Kas 6)Paranoid

Musicus

Germany23579 Posts

January 18 2013 08:53 GMT

#20

In all honesty, IEM often has the most interesting groups for me, right amount of koreans too. Also the venue looks absolutley sick, this should be a great tournament since polish fans a crazy

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