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On January 18 2013 18:51 True_Spike wrote:A polish tv report about the tournament, for anyone's interested. There's some footage of the venue, the players (including a short interview with Parting, albeit in Polish) etc. http://www.tvs.pl/42848,juz_jutro_startuje_intel_extreme_masters_spodek_odleci_zdjecia.htmlThe most optimistic estimates expect around 30k people to show up at the venue throughout the whole event, mostly during the weekend, for obvious reasons.
i hope national tv will also get interesed in a possitive way
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Really interesting groups, I'm pretty hyped for this  Soooo hoping for TLO to win <3
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I hope this thread will be updated with informations. I'm at work, so I can't watch the games - but to take a look in the forums once in a while will be possible.
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On January 18 2013 19:20 TheBB wrote:It's probably the moment of truth! + Show Spoiler [Group A] +Group ASnute Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.21-3.79) Probability of achieving top 3: 88.64% Most likely place: 1st (48.54%) TLO Expected score: 3.17-1.83 (sets: 7.26-4.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 72.80% Most likely place: 2nd (26.96%) Dream Expected score: 2.86-2.14 (sets: 6.80-5.60) Probability of achieving top 3: 59.35% Most likely place: 3rd (21.67%) Grubby Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.08-6.00) Probability of achieving top 3: 44.68% Most likely place: 4th (26.79%) mOOnGLaDe Expected score: 2.23-2.77 (sets: 5.64-6.50) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.70% Most likely place: 5th (34.82%) Tarson Expected score: 0.48-4.52 (sets: 2.13-9.33) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.84% Most likely place: 6th (86.75%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
mOOnGLaDe: 5.51% 34.82% 25.97% 17.81% 10.87% 5.02%
Grubby: 2.70% 25.83% 26.79% 21.84% 15.29% 7.56%
Snute: 0.22% 3.30% 7.85% 14.71% 25.40% 48.54%
Dream: 3.66% 16.26% 20.74% 21.67% 21.32% 16.35%
TLO: 1.16% 9.62% 16.43% 23.31% 26.96% 22.53%
Tarson: 86.75% 10.18% 2.23% 0.66% 0.16% 0.01%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
mOOnGLaDe: 1.76% 20.87% 40.07% 27.99% 8.45% 0.87%
Grubby: 0.55% 13.87% 36.63% 34.93% 12.57% 1.45%
Snute: 0.03% 0.75% 7.73% 27.81% 41.42% 22.26%
Dream: 1.11% 9.07% 26.35% 35.49% 22.54% 5.43%
TLO: 0.17% 3.79% 19.76% 38.84% 29.74% 7.70%
Tarson: 59.67% 33.28% 6.47% 0.55% 0.02%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
mOOnGLaDe: 0.05% 0.29% 0.58% 1.13% 3.87% 6.98% 7.56% 9.51% 13.69% 13.09% 10.05% 10.27% 9.14% 5.22% 3.42% 2.86% 1.31% 0.53% 0.28% 0.12% 0.03%
Grubby: 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.47% 2.05% 4.35% 5.34% 7.25% 11.84% 12.83% 10.72% 11.98% 12.00% 7.61% 4.95% 4.30% 2.33% 0.88% 0.45% 0.31% 0.07%
Snute: 0.01% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.17% 0.33% 0.74% 1.77% 2.89% 3.69% 6.58% 10.06% 10.20% 10.61% 14.85% 13.30% 8.38% 7.85% 6.46% 2.03%
Dream: 0.02% 0.15% 0.31% 0.57% 1.47% 2.69% 3.49% 5.17% 8.09% 9.77% 9.21% 11.21% 12.39% 9.49% 7.97% 7.69% 4.76% 2.49% 1.85% 0.98% 0.22%
TLO: 0.00% 0.03% 0.05% 0.11% 0.47% 1.06% 1.51% 2.74% 5.73% 7.40% 7.94% 11.14% 14.07% 11.41% 9.78% 10.68% 7.33% 3.62% 2.71% 1.76% 0.45%
Tarson: 12.35% 23.90% 16.62% 11.94% 13.67% 10.15% 4.60% 3.05% 2.12% 0.92% 0.34% 0.21% 0.08% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% Group BPartinG Expected score: 4.51-0.49 (sets: 9.31-1.99) Probability of achieving top 3: 99.18% Most likely place: 1st (75.35%) LucifroN Expected score: 3.68-1.32 (sets: 7.99-3.71) Probability of achieving top 3: 91.46% Most likely place: 2nd (53.89%) Bly Expected score: 2.32-2.68 (sets: 5.65-6.19) Probability of achieving top 3: 40.86% Most likely place: 4th (31.25%) MaNa Expected score: 2.21-2.79 (sets: 5.52-6.39) Probability of achieving top 3: 35.00% Most likely place: 5th (33.37%) Tefel Expected score: 2.17-2.83 (sets: 5.30-6.52) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.47% Most likely place: 5th (33.74%) Siphonn Expected score: 0.12-4.88 (sets: 0.87-9.84) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.03% Most likely place: 6th (96.10%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Siphonn: 96.10% 3.55% 0.32% 0.03%
Bly: 0.78% 27.11% 31.25% 29.64% 9.77% 1.45%
LucifroN: 0.01% 2.13% 6.40% 16.82% 53.89% 20.75%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.11% 0.71% 3.61% 20.22% 75.35%
MaNa: 0.85% 33.37% 30.78% 24.18% 8.99% 1.83%
Tefel: 2.25% 33.74% 30.54% 25.73% 7.13% 0.61%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
Siphonn: 88.44% 11.16% 0.40% 0.00%
Bly: 0.40% 15.35% 43.79% 32.91% 7.17% 0.37%
LucifroN: 0.00% 0.50% 6.76% 30.17% 49.56% 13.01%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.01% 0.40% 6.45% 34.96% 58.18%
MaNa: 0.46% 21.28% 43.26% 27.71% 6.75% 0.53%
Tefel: 1.22% 20.15% 44.43% 29.39% 4.70% 0.10%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Siphonn: 43.39% 33.82% 9.95% 5.62% 4.83% 1.72% 0.35% 0.19% 0.10% 0.02% 0.01%
Bly: 0.01% 0.08% 0.15% 0.45% 2.43% 5.17% 5.95% 8.57% 15.32% 14.96% 10.95% 12.06% 11.21% 5.59% 3.01% 2.42% 1.17% 0.31% 0.14% 0.06% 0.01%
LucifroN: 0.00% 0.03% 0.11% 0.22% 0.43% 1.36% 2.53% 3.40% 6.14% 11.38% 10.88% 11.79% 18.11% 16.19% 7.14% 4.61% 4.26% 1.42%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.23% 0.64% 1.89% 2.92% 4.01% 9.76% 14.91% 11.79% 15.06% 24.37% 14.28%
MaNa: 0.02% 0.09% 0.18% 0.49% 3.27% 7.20% 7.64% 9.25% 15.33% 14.86% 10.11% 10.22% 9.34% 5.01% 2.89% 2.29% 1.17% 0.34% 0.20% 0.08% 0.02%
Tefel: 0.06% 0.26% 0.43% 1.05% 4.14% 7.28% 7.43% 10.41% 16.38% 14.22% 9.94% 11.31% 8.98% 3.86% 2.07% 1.48% 0.57% 0.09% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% Group CYoDa Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.23-3.90) Probability of achieving top 3: 89.85% Most likely place: 1st (57.05%) Socke Expected score: 2.85-2.15 (sets: 6.74-5.51) Probability of achieving top 3: 65.94% Most likely place: 2nd (25.88%) jookTo Expected score: 2.53-2.47 (sets: 6.22-6.16) Probability of achieving top 3: 52.55% Most likely place: 3rd (20.68%) DieStar Expected score: 2.01-2.99 (sets: 5.40-7.04) Probability of achieving top 3: 32.92% Most likely place: 6th (25.90%) Verdi Expected score: 2.02-2.98 (sets: 5.24-6.95) Probability of achieving top 3: 31.64% Most likely place: 5th (23.57%) Nerchio Expected score: 1.84-3.16 (sets: 5.03-7.29) Probability of achieving top 3: 27.11% Most likely place: 6th (31.10%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
jookTo: 12.47% 16.43% 18.56% 20.68% 20.64% 11.22%
Socke: 6.35% 11.08% 16.63% 22.54% 25.88% 17.53%
Nerchio: 31.10% 23.73% 18.06% 13.67% 9.52% 3.92%
YoDa: 1.16% 3.02% 5.98% 10.87% 21.93% 57.05%
Verdi: 23.03% 23.57% 21.77% 16.78% 10.76% 4.10%
DieStar: 25.90% 22.17% 19.01% 15.46% 11.28% 6.18%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
jookTo: 2.38% 14.00% 32.17% 33.75% 15.40% 2.30%
Socke: 0.58% 7.68% 27.65% 38.48% 21.60% 4.01%
Nerchio: 9.28% 29.53% 35.64% 19.89% 5.20% 0.45%
YoDa: 0.08% 1.15% 8.22% 26.46% 40.85% 23.24%
Verdi: 5.28% 24.74% 39.24% 24.96% 5.41% 0.36%
DieStar: 7.43% 25.86% 34.81% 23.33% 7.55% 1.01%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
jookTo: 0.08% 0.43% 0.75% 1.17% 2.60% 4.55% 5.37% 7.22% 10.69% 11.06% 10.09% 11.45% 11.09% 7.68% 5.73% 4.88% 2.78% 1.24% 0.71% 0.33% 0.08%
Socke: 0.01% 0.10% 0.19% 0.33% 1.14% 2.26% 3.03% 4.79% 8.38% 10.03% 9.73% 12.44% 13.49% 9.85% 7.90% 7.17% 4.72% 2.08% 1.37% 0.82% 0.18%
Nerchio: 0.41% 2.03% 3.24% 4.04% 7.02% 10.32% 9.82% 10.72% 12.68% 10.63% 7.97% 7.42% 5.73% 3.25% 2.20% 1.51% 0.60% 0.23% 0.13% 0.04% 0.01%
YoDa: 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.15% 0.26% 0.46% 0.98% 2.11% 3.00% 4.12% 6.57% 9.70% 9.88% 10.91% 14.42% 12.51% 8.52% 7.96% 6.36% 2.04%
Verdi: 0.25% 1.15% 1.80% 2.74% 5.73% 8.52% 8.68% 10.89% 13.76% 12.04% 9.23% 9.11% 7.33% 3.91% 2.15% 1.61% 0.72% 0.20% 0.12% 0.05% 0.01%
DieStar: 0.32% 1.40% 2.47% 3.26% 5.81% 8.94% 9.04% 9.55% 12.07% 11.07% 8.85% 8.62% 6.91% 4.25% 3.04% 2.28% 1.11% 0.52% 0.30% 0.17% 0.02% Group DVortiX Expected score: 3.84-1.16 (sets: 8.31-3.53) Probability of achieving top 3: 93.94% Most likely place: 1st (60.61%) First Expected score: 2.93-2.07 (sets: 6.91-5.41) Probability of achieving top 3: 67.97% Most likely place: 2nd (26.03%) Kas Expected score: 2.47-2.53 (sets: 6.04-6.18) Probability of achieving top 3: 50.45% Most likely place: 3rd (22.53%) Golden Expected score: 2.11-2.89 (sets: 5.42-6.83) Probability of achieving top 3: 36.07% Most likely place: 5th (22.47%) Daisy Expected score: 2.05-2.95 (sets: 5.31-6.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 32.18% Most likely place: 5th (24.40%) ParanOid Expected score: 1.60-3.40 (sets: 4.53-7.66) Probability of achieving top 3: 19.39% Most likely place: 6th (39.67%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Golden: 20.90% 22.47% 20.55% 18.15% 13.65% 4.27%
VortiX: 0.37% 1.59% 4.10% 9.83% 23.51% 60.61%
Kas: 11.55% 16.92% 21.08% 22.53% 19.85% 8.07%
First: 5.99% 10.47% 15.56% 20.80% 26.03% 21.14%
Daisy: 21.51% 24.40% 21.92% 17.39% 10.56% 4.23%
ParanOid: 39.67% 24.16% 16.78% 11.31% 6.40% 1.68%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
Golden: 5.01% 22.61% 37.22% 26.97% 7.76% 0.44%
VortiX: 0.00% 0.34% 5.07% 27.20% 44.69% 22.70%
Kas: 1.88% 14.11% 35.13% 34.56% 13.11% 1.21%
First: 0.67% 7.64% 25.25% 36.65% 23.86% 5.93%
Daisy: 5.00% 23.78% 39.17% 25.59% 6.06% 0.41%
ParanOid: 13.22% 34.88% 34.00% 14.99% 2.79% 0.12%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Golden: 0.22% 1.06% 1.77% 2.39% 4.96% 8.00% 8.14% 10.00% 13.31% 11.55% 9.52% 9.81% 7.87% 4.69% 3.07% 2.19% 0.97% 0.28% 0.10% 0.08% 0.01%
VortiX: 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.08% 0.13% 0.34% 1.14% 1.85% 2.68% 5.60% 9.55% 10.57% 10.76% 15.77% 14.98% 8.71% 8.04% 7.30% 2.47%
Kas: 0.08% 0.34% 0.63% 0.99% 2.56% 4.59% 5.55% 7.58% 11.80% 12.07% 10.46% 12.14% 11.37% 6.83% 5.28% 4.13% 2.24% 0.76% 0.38% 0.19% 0.02%
First: 0.02% 0.09% 0.20% 0.38% 0.99% 2.20% 3.02% 4.57% 7.58% 9.20% 9.10% 11.73% 12.77% 9.85% 8.45% 8.24% 5.33% 2.78% 2.09% 1.14% 0.26%
Daisy: 0.27% 1.01% 1.77% 2.49% 5.47% 8.41% 8.36% 10.44% 13.74% 12.29% 9.34% 9.50% 7.39% 4.01% 2.55% 1.79% 0.77% 0.24% 0.10% 0.06% 0.01%
ParanOid: 0.90% 3.14% 4.73% 5.49% 9.60% 12.49% 10.73% 11.05% 12.29% 9.59% 6.36% 5.67% 3.78% 1.98% 1.05% 0.76% 0.29% 0.07% 0.04% 0.02% Judging from the other predictions I've seen, people might be overestimating Nerchio and underestimating TLO. Then again, Nerchio has good results since last list update that are not yet accounted for.
lol @ Nerchio
Top 3 overalll this tour fo sho
Note that your stats dont take things like home advantage into account, something which should never be underestimated 
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There is going to be a lot of ppl watching Group A. Very popular players there
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Snute, Dream, Grubby
Parting, Lucifron, Mana
Yoda, Nerchio, Jookto
Vortix, Daisy, First
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On January 18 2013 19:32 Inzan1ty wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 19:20 TheBB wrote:It's probably the moment of truth! + Show Spoiler [Group A] +Group ASnute Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.21-3.79) Probability of achieving top 3: 88.64% Most likely place: 1st (48.54%) TLO Expected score: 3.17-1.83 (sets: 7.26-4.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 72.80% Most likely place: 2nd (26.96%) Dream Expected score: 2.86-2.14 (sets: 6.80-5.60) Probability of achieving top 3: 59.35% Most likely place: 3rd (21.67%) Grubby Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.08-6.00) Probability of achieving top 3: 44.68% Most likely place: 4th (26.79%) mOOnGLaDe Expected score: 2.23-2.77 (sets: 5.64-6.50) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.70% Most likely place: 5th (34.82%) Tarson Expected score: 0.48-4.52 (sets: 2.13-9.33) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.84% Most likely place: 6th (86.75%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
mOOnGLaDe: 5.51% 34.82% 25.97% 17.81% 10.87% 5.02%
Grubby: 2.70% 25.83% 26.79% 21.84% 15.29% 7.56%
Snute: 0.22% 3.30% 7.85% 14.71% 25.40% 48.54%
Dream: 3.66% 16.26% 20.74% 21.67% 21.32% 16.35%
TLO: 1.16% 9.62% 16.43% 23.31% 26.96% 22.53%
Tarson: 86.75% 10.18% 2.23% 0.66% 0.16% 0.01%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
mOOnGLaDe: 1.76% 20.87% 40.07% 27.99% 8.45% 0.87%
Grubby: 0.55% 13.87% 36.63% 34.93% 12.57% 1.45%
Snute: 0.03% 0.75% 7.73% 27.81% 41.42% 22.26%
Dream: 1.11% 9.07% 26.35% 35.49% 22.54% 5.43%
TLO: 0.17% 3.79% 19.76% 38.84% 29.74% 7.70%
Tarson: 59.67% 33.28% 6.47% 0.55% 0.02%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
mOOnGLaDe: 0.05% 0.29% 0.58% 1.13% 3.87% 6.98% 7.56% 9.51% 13.69% 13.09% 10.05% 10.27% 9.14% 5.22% 3.42% 2.86% 1.31% 0.53% 0.28% 0.12% 0.03%
Grubby: 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.47% 2.05% 4.35% 5.34% 7.25% 11.84% 12.83% 10.72% 11.98% 12.00% 7.61% 4.95% 4.30% 2.33% 0.88% 0.45% 0.31% 0.07%
Snute: 0.01% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.17% 0.33% 0.74% 1.77% 2.89% 3.69% 6.58% 10.06% 10.20% 10.61% 14.85% 13.30% 8.38% 7.85% 6.46% 2.03%
Dream: 0.02% 0.15% 0.31% 0.57% 1.47% 2.69% 3.49% 5.17% 8.09% 9.77% 9.21% 11.21% 12.39% 9.49% 7.97% 7.69% 4.76% 2.49% 1.85% 0.98% 0.22%
TLO: 0.00% 0.03% 0.05% 0.11% 0.47% 1.06% 1.51% 2.74% 5.73% 7.40% 7.94% 11.14% 14.07% 11.41% 9.78% 10.68% 7.33% 3.62% 2.71% 1.76% 0.45%
Tarson: 12.35% 23.90% 16.62% 11.94% 13.67% 10.15% 4.60% 3.05% 2.12% 0.92% 0.34% 0.21% 0.08% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% Group BPartinG Expected score: 4.51-0.49 (sets: 9.31-1.99) Probability of achieving top 3: 99.18% Most likely place: 1st (75.35%) LucifroN Expected score: 3.68-1.32 (sets: 7.99-3.71) Probability of achieving top 3: 91.46% Most likely place: 2nd (53.89%) Bly Expected score: 2.32-2.68 (sets: 5.65-6.19) Probability of achieving top 3: 40.86% Most likely place: 4th (31.25%) MaNa Expected score: 2.21-2.79 (sets: 5.52-6.39) Probability of achieving top 3: 35.00% Most likely place: 5th (33.37%) Tefel Expected score: 2.17-2.83 (sets: 5.30-6.52) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.47% Most likely place: 5th (33.74%) Siphonn Expected score: 0.12-4.88 (sets: 0.87-9.84) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.03% Most likely place: 6th (96.10%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Siphonn: 96.10% 3.55% 0.32% 0.03%
Bly: 0.78% 27.11% 31.25% 29.64% 9.77% 1.45%
LucifroN: 0.01% 2.13% 6.40% 16.82% 53.89% 20.75%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.11% 0.71% 3.61% 20.22% 75.35%
MaNa: 0.85% 33.37% 30.78% 24.18% 8.99% 1.83%
Tefel: 2.25% 33.74% 30.54% 25.73% 7.13% 0.61%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
Siphonn: 88.44% 11.16% 0.40% 0.00%
Bly: 0.40% 15.35% 43.79% 32.91% 7.17% 0.37%
LucifroN: 0.00% 0.50% 6.76% 30.17% 49.56% 13.01%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.01% 0.40% 6.45% 34.96% 58.18%
MaNa: 0.46% 21.28% 43.26% 27.71% 6.75% 0.53%
Tefel: 1.22% 20.15% 44.43% 29.39% 4.70% 0.10%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Siphonn: 43.39% 33.82% 9.95% 5.62% 4.83% 1.72% 0.35% 0.19% 0.10% 0.02% 0.01%
Bly: 0.01% 0.08% 0.15% 0.45% 2.43% 5.17% 5.95% 8.57% 15.32% 14.96% 10.95% 12.06% 11.21% 5.59% 3.01% 2.42% 1.17% 0.31% 0.14% 0.06% 0.01%
LucifroN: 0.00% 0.03% 0.11% 0.22% 0.43% 1.36% 2.53% 3.40% 6.14% 11.38% 10.88% 11.79% 18.11% 16.19% 7.14% 4.61% 4.26% 1.42%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.23% 0.64% 1.89% 2.92% 4.01% 9.76% 14.91% 11.79% 15.06% 24.37% 14.28%
MaNa: 0.02% 0.09% 0.18% 0.49% 3.27% 7.20% 7.64% 9.25% 15.33% 14.86% 10.11% 10.22% 9.34% 5.01% 2.89% 2.29% 1.17% 0.34% 0.20% 0.08% 0.02%
Tefel: 0.06% 0.26% 0.43% 1.05% 4.14% 7.28% 7.43% 10.41% 16.38% 14.22% 9.94% 11.31% 8.98% 3.86% 2.07% 1.48% 0.57% 0.09% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% Group CYoDa Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.23-3.90) Probability of achieving top 3: 89.85% Most likely place: 1st (57.05%) Socke Expected score: 2.85-2.15 (sets: 6.74-5.51) Probability of achieving top 3: 65.94% Most likely place: 2nd (25.88%) jookTo Expected score: 2.53-2.47 (sets: 6.22-6.16) Probability of achieving top 3: 52.55% Most likely place: 3rd (20.68%) DieStar Expected score: 2.01-2.99 (sets: 5.40-7.04) Probability of achieving top 3: 32.92% Most likely place: 6th (25.90%) Verdi Expected score: 2.02-2.98 (sets: 5.24-6.95) Probability of achieving top 3: 31.64% Most likely place: 5th (23.57%) Nerchio Expected score: 1.84-3.16 (sets: 5.03-7.29) Probability of achieving top 3: 27.11% Most likely place: 6th (31.10%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
jookTo: 12.47% 16.43% 18.56% 20.68% 20.64% 11.22%
Socke: 6.35% 11.08% 16.63% 22.54% 25.88% 17.53%
Nerchio: 31.10% 23.73% 18.06% 13.67% 9.52% 3.92%
YoDa: 1.16% 3.02% 5.98% 10.87% 21.93% 57.05%
Verdi: 23.03% 23.57% 21.77% 16.78% 10.76% 4.10%
DieStar: 25.90% 22.17% 19.01% 15.46% 11.28% 6.18%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
jookTo: 2.38% 14.00% 32.17% 33.75% 15.40% 2.30%
Socke: 0.58% 7.68% 27.65% 38.48% 21.60% 4.01%
Nerchio: 9.28% 29.53% 35.64% 19.89% 5.20% 0.45%
YoDa: 0.08% 1.15% 8.22% 26.46% 40.85% 23.24%
Verdi: 5.28% 24.74% 39.24% 24.96% 5.41% 0.36%
DieStar: 7.43% 25.86% 34.81% 23.33% 7.55% 1.01%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
jookTo: 0.08% 0.43% 0.75% 1.17% 2.60% 4.55% 5.37% 7.22% 10.69% 11.06% 10.09% 11.45% 11.09% 7.68% 5.73% 4.88% 2.78% 1.24% 0.71% 0.33% 0.08%
Socke: 0.01% 0.10% 0.19% 0.33% 1.14% 2.26% 3.03% 4.79% 8.38% 10.03% 9.73% 12.44% 13.49% 9.85% 7.90% 7.17% 4.72% 2.08% 1.37% 0.82% 0.18%
Nerchio: 0.41% 2.03% 3.24% 4.04% 7.02% 10.32% 9.82% 10.72% 12.68% 10.63% 7.97% 7.42% 5.73% 3.25% 2.20% 1.51% 0.60% 0.23% 0.13% 0.04% 0.01%
YoDa: 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.15% 0.26% 0.46% 0.98% 2.11% 3.00% 4.12% 6.57% 9.70% 9.88% 10.91% 14.42% 12.51% 8.52% 7.96% 6.36% 2.04%
Verdi: 0.25% 1.15% 1.80% 2.74% 5.73% 8.52% 8.68% 10.89% 13.76% 12.04% 9.23% 9.11% 7.33% 3.91% 2.15% 1.61% 0.72% 0.20% 0.12% 0.05% 0.01%
DieStar: 0.32% 1.40% 2.47% 3.26% 5.81% 8.94% 9.04% 9.55% 12.07% 11.07% 8.85% 8.62% 6.91% 4.25% 3.04% 2.28% 1.11% 0.52% 0.30% 0.17% 0.02% Group DVortiX Expected score: 3.84-1.16 (sets: 8.31-3.53) Probability of achieving top 3: 93.94% Most likely place: 1st (60.61%) First Expected score: 2.93-2.07 (sets: 6.91-5.41) Probability of achieving top 3: 67.97% Most likely place: 2nd (26.03%) Kas Expected score: 2.47-2.53 (sets: 6.04-6.18) Probability of achieving top 3: 50.45% Most likely place: 3rd (22.53%) Golden Expected score: 2.11-2.89 (sets: 5.42-6.83) Probability of achieving top 3: 36.07% Most likely place: 5th (22.47%) Daisy Expected score: 2.05-2.95 (sets: 5.31-6.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 32.18% Most likely place: 5th (24.40%) ParanOid Expected score: 1.60-3.40 (sets: 4.53-7.66) Probability of achieving top 3: 19.39% Most likely place: 6th (39.67%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Golden: 20.90% 22.47% 20.55% 18.15% 13.65% 4.27%
VortiX: 0.37% 1.59% 4.10% 9.83% 23.51% 60.61%
Kas: 11.55% 16.92% 21.08% 22.53% 19.85% 8.07%
First: 5.99% 10.47% 15.56% 20.80% 26.03% 21.14%
Daisy: 21.51% 24.40% 21.92% 17.39% 10.56% 4.23%
ParanOid: 39.67% 24.16% 16.78% 11.31% 6.40% 1.68%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
Golden: 5.01% 22.61% 37.22% 26.97% 7.76% 0.44%
VortiX: 0.00% 0.34% 5.07% 27.20% 44.69% 22.70%
Kas: 1.88% 14.11% 35.13% 34.56% 13.11% 1.21%
First: 0.67% 7.64% 25.25% 36.65% 23.86% 5.93%
Daisy: 5.00% 23.78% 39.17% 25.59% 6.06% 0.41%
ParanOid: 13.22% 34.88% 34.00% 14.99% 2.79% 0.12%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Golden: 0.22% 1.06% 1.77% 2.39% 4.96% 8.00% 8.14% 10.00% 13.31% 11.55% 9.52% 9.81% 7.87% 4.69% 3.07% 2.19% 0.97% 0.28% 0.10% 0.08% 0.01%
VortiX: 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.08% 0.13% 0.34% 1.14% 1.85% 2.68% 5.60% 9.55% 10.57% 10.76% 15.77% 14.98% 8.71% 8.04% 7.30% 2.47%
Kas: 0.08% 0.34% 0.63% 0.99% 2.56% 4.59% 5.55% 7.58% 11.80% 12.07% 10.46% 12.14% 11.37% 6.83% 5.28% 4.13% 2.24% 0.76% 0.38% 0.19% 0.02%
First: 0.02% 0.09% 0.20% 0.38% 0.99% 2.20% 3.02% 4.57% 7.58% 9.20% 9.10% 11.73% 12.77% 9.85% 8.45% 8.24% 5.33% 2.78% 2.09% 1.14% 0.26%
Daisy: 0.27% 1.01% 1.77% 2.49% 5.47% 8.41% 8.36% 10.44% 13.74% 12.29% 9.34% 9.50% 7.39% 4.01% 2.55% 1.79% 0.77% 0.24% 0.10% 0.06% 0.01%
ParanOid: 0.90% 3.14% 4.73% 5.49% 9.60% 12.49% 10.73% 11.05% 12.29% 9.59% 6.36% 5.67% 3.78% 1.98% 1.05% 0.76% 0.29% 0.07% 0.04% 0.02% Judging from the other predictions I've seen, people might be overestimating Nerchio and underestimating TLO. Then again, Nerchio has good results since last list update that are not yet accounted for. lol @ Nerchio Top 3 overalll this tour fo sho Note that your stats dont take things like home advantage into account, something which should never be underestimated
Sure, but top 3? Doubt it. Nerchio is on a downward trend. There are definitely more than two other players with a better chance here than him (most would agree on Vortix, Parting, Snute, Lucifron at least, personally I'd include TLO, Yoda, and First too.)
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On January 18 2013 19:37 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 19:32 Inzan1ty wrote:On January 18 2013 19:20 TheBB wrote:It's probably the moment of truth! + Show Spoiler [Group A] +Group ASnute Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.21-3.79) Probability of achieving top 3: 88.64% Most likely place: 1st (48.54%) TLO Expected score: 3.17-1.83 (sets: 7.26-4.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 72.80% Most likely place: 2nd (26.96%) Dream Expected score: 2.86-2.14 (sets: 6.80-5.60) Probability of achieving top 3: 59.35% Most likely place: 3rd (21.67%) Grubby Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.08-6.00) Probability of achieving top 3: 44.68% Most likely place: 4th (26.79%) mOOnGLaDe Expected score: 2.23-2.77 (sets: 5.64-6.50) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.70% Most likely place: 5th (34.82%) Tarson Expected score: 0.48-4.52 (sets: 2.13-9.33) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.84% Most likely place: 6th (86.75%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
mOOnGLaDe: 5.51% 34.82% 25.97% 17.81% 10.87% 5.02%
Grubby: 2.70% 25.83% 26.79% 21.84% 15.29% 7.56%
Snute: 0.22% 3.30% 7.85% 14.71% 25.40% 48.54%
Dream: 3.66% 16.26% 20.74% 21.67% 21.32% 16.35%
TLO: 1.16% 9.62% 16.43% 23.31% 26.96% 22.53%
Tarson: 86.75% 10.18% 2.23% 0.66% 0.16% 0.01%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
mOOnGLaDe: 1.76% 20.87% 40.07% 27.99% 8.45% 0.87%
Grubby: 0.55% 13.87% 36.63% 34.93% 12.57% 1.45%
Snute: 0.03% 0.75% 7.73% 27.81% 41.42% 22.26%
Dream: 1.11% 9.07% 26.35% 35.49% 22.54% 5.43%
TLO: 0.17% 3.79% 19.76% 38.84% 29.74% 7.70%
Tarson: 59.67% 33.28% 6.47% 0.55% 0.02%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
mOOnGLaDe: 0.05% 0.29% 0.58% 1.13% 3.87% 6.98% 7.56% 9.51% 13.69% 13.09% 10.05% 10.27% 9.14% 5.22% 3.42% 2.86% 1.31% 0.53% 0.28% 0.12% 0.03%
Grubby: 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.47% 2.05% 4.35% 5.34% 7.25% 11.84% 12.83% 10.72% 11.98% 12.00% 7.61% 4.95% 4.30% 2.33% 0.88% 0.45% 0.31% 0.07%
Snute: 0.01% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.17% 0.33% 0.74% 1.77% 2.89% 3.69% 6.58% 10.06% 10.20% 10.61% 14.85% 13.30% 8.38% 7.85% 6.46% 2.03%
Dream: 0.02% 0.15% 0.31% 0.57% 1.47% 2.69% 3.49% 5.17% 8.09% 9.77% 9.21% 11.21% 12.39% 9.49% 7.97% 7.69% 4.76% 2.49% 1.85% 0.98% 0.22%
TLO: 0.00% 0.03% 0.05% 0.11% 0.47% 1.06% 1.51% 2.74% 5.73% 7.40% 7.94% 11.14% 14.07% 11.41% 9.78% 10.68% 7.33% 3.62% 2.71% 1.76% 0.45%
Tarson: 12.35% 23.90% 16.62% 11.94% 13.67% 10.15% 4.60% 3.05% 2.12% 0.92% 0.34% 0.21% 0.08% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% Group BPartinG Expected score: 4.51-0.49 (sets: 9.31-1.99) Probability of achieving top 3: 99.18% Most likely place: 1st (75.35%) LucifroN Expected score: 3.68-1.32 (sets: 7.99-3.71) Probability of achieving top 3: 91.46% Most likely place: 2nd (53.89%) Bly Expected score: 2.32-2.68 (sets: 5.65-6.19) Probability of achieving top 3: 40.86% Most likely place: 4th (31.25%) MaNa Expected score: 2.21-2.79 (sets: 5.52-6.39) Probability of achieving top 3: 35.00% Most likely place: 5th (33.37%) Tefel Expected score: 2.17-2.83 (sets: 5.30-6.52) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.47% Most likely place: 5th (33.74%) Siphonn Expected score: 0.12-4.88 (sets: 0.87-9.84) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.03% Most likely place: 6th (96.10%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Siphonn: 96.10% 3.55% 0.32% 0.03%
Bly: 0.78% 27.11% 31.25% 29.64% 9.77% 1.45%
LucifroN: 0.01% 2.13% 6.40% 16.82% 53.89% 20.75%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.11% 0.71% 3.61% 20.22% 75.35%
MaNa: 0.85% 33.37% 30.78% 24.18% 8.99% 1.83%
Tefel: 2.25% 33.74% 30.54% 25.73% 7.13% 0.61%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
Siphonn: 88.44% 11.16% 0.40% 0.00%
Bly: 0.40% 15.35% 43.79% 32.91% 7.17% 0.37%
LucifroN: 0.00% 0.50% 6.76% 30.17% 49.56% 13.01%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.01% 0.40% 6.45% 34.96% 58.18%
MaNa: 0.46% 21.28% 43.26% 27.71% 6.75% 0.53%
Tefel: 1.22% 20.15% 44.43% 29.39% 4.70% 0.10%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Siphonn: 43.39% 33.82% 9.95% 5.62% 4.83% 1.72% 0.35% 0.19% 0.10% 0.02% 0.01%
Bly: 0.01% 0.08% 0.15% 0.45% 2.43% 5.17% 5.95% 8.57% 15.32% 14.96% 10.95% 12.06% 11.21% 5.59% 3.01% 2.42% 1.17% 0.31% 0.14% 0.06% 0.01%
LucifroN: 0.00% 0.03% 0.11% 0.22% 0.43% 1.36% 2.53% 3.40% 6.14% 11.38% 10.88% 11.79% 18.11% 16.19% 7.14% 4.61% 4.26% 1.42%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.23% 0.64% 1.89% 2.92% 4.01% 9.76% 14.91% 11.79% 15.06% 24.37% 14.28%
MaNa: 0.02% 0.09% 0.18% 0.49% 3.27% 7.20% 7.64% 9.25% 15.33% 14.86% 10.11% 10.22% 9.34% 5.01% 2.89% 2.29% 1.17% 0.34% 0.20% 0.08% 0.02%
Tefel: 0.06% 0.26% 0.43% 1.05% 4.14% 7.28% 7.43% 10.41% 16.38% 14.22% 9.94% 11.31% 8.98% 3.86% 2.07% 1.48% 0.57% 0.09% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% Group CYoDa Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.23-3.90) Probability of achieving top 3: 89.85% Most likely place: 1st (57.05%) Socke Expected score: 2.85-2.15 (sets: 6.74-5.51) Probability of achieving top 3: 65.94% Most likely place: 2nd (25.88%) jookTo Expected score: 2.53-2.47 (sets: 6.22-6.16) Probability of achieving top 3: 52.55% Most likely place: 3rd (20.68%) DieStar Expected score: 2.01-2.99 (sets: 5.40-7.04) Probability of achieving top 3: 32.92% Most likely place: 6th (25.90%) Verdi Expected score: 2.02-2.98 (sets: 5.24-6.95) Probability of achieving top 3: 31.64% Most likely place: 5th (23.57%) Nerchio Expected score: 1.84-3.16 (sets: 5.03-7.29) Probability of achieving top 3: 27.11% Most likely place: 6th (31.10%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
jookTo: 12.47% 16.43% 18.56% 20.68% 20.64% 11.22%
Socke: 6.35% 11.08% 16.63% 22.54% 25.88% 17.53%
Nerchio: 31.10% 23.73% 18.06% 13.67% 9.52% 3.92%
YoDa: 1.16% 3.02% 5.98% 10.87% 21.93% 57.05%
Verdi: 23.03% 23.57% 21.77% 16.78% 10.76% 4.10%
DieStar: 25.90% 22.17% 19.01% 15.46% 11.28% 6.18%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
jookTo: 2.38% 14.00% 32.17% 33.75% 15.40% 2.30%
Socke: 0.58% 7.68% 27.65% 38.48% 21.60% 4.01%
Nerchio: 9.28% 29.53% 35.64% 19.89% 5.20% 0.45%
YoDa: 0.08% 1.15% 8.22% 26.46% 40.85% 23.24%
Verdi: 5.28% 24.74% 39.24% 24.96% 5.41% 0.36%
DieStar: 7.43% 25.86% 34.81% 23.33% 7.55% 1.01%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
jookTo: 0.08% 0.43% 0.75% 1.17% 2.60% 4.55% 5.37% 7.22% 10.69% 11.06% 10.09% 11.45% 11.09% 7.68% 5.73% 4.88% 2.78% 1.24% 0.71% 0.33% 0.08%
Socke: 0.01% 0.10% 0.19% 0.33% 1.14% 2.26% 3.03% 4.79% 8.38% 10.03% 9.73% 12.44% 13.49% 9.85% 7.90% 7.17% 4.72% 2.08% 1.37% 0.82% 0.18%
Nerchio: 0.41% 2.03% 3.24% 4.04% 7.02% 10.32% 9.82% 10.72% 12.68% 10.63% 7.97% 7.42% 5.73% 3.25% 2.20% 1.51% 0.60% 0.23% 0.13% 0.04% 0.01%
YoDa: 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.15% 0.26% 0.46% 0.98% 2.11% 3.00% 4.12% 6.57% 9.70% 9.88% 10.91% 14.42% 12.51% 8.52% 7.96% 6.36% 2.04%
Verdi: 0.25% 1.15% 1.80% 2.74% 5.73% 8.52% 8.68% 10.89% 13.76% 12.04% 9.23% 9.11% 7.33% 3.91% 2.15% 1.61% 0.72% 0.20% 0.12% 0.05% 0.01%
DieStar: 0.32% 1.40% 2.47% 3.26% 5.81% 8.94% 9.04% 9.55% 12.07% 11.07% 8.85% 8.62% 6.91% 4.25% 3.04% 2.28% 1.11% 0.52% 0.30% 0.17% 0.02% Group DVortiX Expected score: 3.84-1.16 (sets: 8.31-3.53) Probability of achieving top 3: 93.94% Most likely place: 1st (60.61%) First Expected score: 2.93-2.07 (sets: 6.91-5.41) Probability of achieving top 3: 67.97% Most likely place: 2nd (26.03%) Kas Expected score: 2.47-2.53 (sets: 6.04-6.18) Probability of achieving top 3: 50.45% Most likely place: 3rd (22.53%) Golden Expected score: 2.11-2.89 (sets: 5.42-6.83) Probability of achieving top 3: 36.07% Most likely place: 5th (22.47%) Daisy Expected score: 2.05-2.95 (sets: 5.31-6.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 32.18% Most likely place: 5th (24.40%) ParanOid Expected score: 1.60-3.40 (sets: 4.53-7.66) Probability of achieving top 3: 19.39% Most likely place: 6th (39.67%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Golden: 20.90% 22.47% 20.55% 18.15% 13.65% 4.27%
VortiX: 0.37% 1.59% 4.10% 9.83% 23.51% 60.61%
Kas: 11.55% 16.92% 21.08% 22.53% 19.85% 8.07%
First: 5.99% 10.47% 15.56% 20.80% 26.03% 21.14%
Daisy: 21.51% 24.40% 21.92% 17.39% 10.56% 4.23%
ParanOid: 39.67% 24.16% 16.78% 11.31% 6.40% 1.68%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
Golden: 5.01% 22.61% 37.22% 26.97% 7.76% 0.44%
VortiX: 0.00% 0.34% 5.07% 27.20% 44.69% 22.70%
Kas: 1.88% 14.11% 35.13% 34.56% 13.11% 1.21%
First: 0.67% 7.64% 25.25% 36.65% 23.86% 5.93%
Daisy: 5.00% 23.78% 39.17% 25.59% 6.06% 0.41%
ParanOid: 13.22% 34.88% 34.00% 14.99% 2.79% 0.12%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Golden: 0.22% 1.06% 1.77% 2.39% 4.96% 8.00% 8.14% 10.00% 13.31% 11.55% 9.52% 9.81% 7.87% 4.69% 3.07% 2.19% 0.97% 0.28% 0.10% 0.08% 0.01%
VortiX: 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.08% 0.13% 0.34% 1.14% 1.85% 2.68% 5.60% 9.55% 10.57% 10.76% 15.77% 14.98% 8.71% 8.04% 7.30% 2.47%
Kas: 0.08% 0.34% 0.63% 0.99% 2.56% 4.59% 5.55% 7.58% 11.80% 12.07% 10.46% 12.14% 11.37% 6.83% 5.28% 4.13% 2.24% 0.76% 0.38% 0.19% 0.02%
First: 0.02% 0.09% 0.20% 0.38% 0.99% 2.20% 3.02% 4.57% 7.58% 9.20% 9.10% 11.73% 12.77% 9.85% 8.45% 8.24% 5.33% 2.78% 2.09% 1.14% 0.26%
Daisy: 0.27% 1.01% 1.77% 2.49% 5.47% 8.41% 8.36% 10.44% 13.74% 12.29% 9.34% 9.50% 7.39% 4.01% 2.55% 1.79% 0.77% 0.24% 0.10% 0.06% 0.01%
ParanOid: 0.90% 3.14% 4.73% 5.49% 9.60% 12.49% 10.73% 11.05% 12.29% 9.59% 6.36% 5.67% 3.78% 1.98% 1.05% 0.76% 0.29% 0.07% 0.04% 0.02% Judging from the other predictions I've seen, people might be overestimating Nerchio and underestimating TLO. Then again, Nerchio has good results since last list update that are not yet accounted for. lol @ Nerchio Top 3 overalll this tour fo sho Note that your stats dont take things like home advantage into account, something which should never be underestimated Sure, but top 3? Doubt it. Nerchio is on a downward trend. There are definitely more than two other players with a better chance here than him (most would agree on Vortix, Parting, Snute, Lucifron at least, personally I'd include TLO, Yoda, and First too.)
Usually I would agree but this is Poland, who knows, this might be the right moment for the Acer Ace to resurrect his strenght
Bold or not bold, Predicting PartinG to win here against Nerchio in the finals.
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On January 18 2013 19:41 Inzan1ty wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 19:37 TheBB wrote:On January 18 2013 19:32 Inzan1ty wrote:On January 18 2013 19:20 TheBB wrote:It's probably the moment of truth! + Show Spoiler [Group A] +Group ASnute Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.21-3.79) Probability of achieving top 3: 88.64% Most likely place: 1st (48.54%) TLO Expected score: 3.17-1.83 (sets: 7.26-4.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 72.80% Most likely place: 2nd (26.96%) Dream Expected score: 2.86-2.14 (sets: 6.80-5.60) Probability of achieving top 3: 59.35% Most likely place: 3rd (21.67%) Grubby Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.08-6.00) Probability of achieving top 3: 44.68% Most likely place: 4th (26.79%) mOOnGLaDe Expected score: 2.23-2.77 (sets: 5.64-6.50) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.70% Most likely place: 5th (34.82%) Tarson Expected score: 0.48-4.52 (sets: 2.13-9.33) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.84% Most likely place: 6th (86.75%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
mOOnGLaDe: 5.51% 34.82% 25.97% 17.81% 10.87% 5.02%
Grubby: 2.70% 25.83% 26.79% 21.84% 15.29% 7.56%
Snute: 0.22% 3.30% 7.85% 14.71% 25.40% 48.54%
Dream: 3.66% 16.26% 20.74% 21.67% 21.32% 16.35%
TLO: 1.16% 9.62% 16.43% 23.31% 26.96% 22.53%
Tarson: 86.75% 10.18% 2.23% 0.66% 0.16% 0.01%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
mOOnGLaDe: 1.76% 20.87% 40.07% 27.99% 8.45% 0.87%
Grubby: 0.55% 13.87% 36.63% 34.93% 12.57% 1.45%
Snute: 0.03% 0.75% 7.73% 27.81% 41.42% 22.26%
Dream: 1.11% 9.07% 26.35% 35.49% 22.54% 5.43%
TLO: 0.17% 3.79% 19.76% 38.84% 29.74% 7.70%
Tarson: 59.67% 33.28% 6.47% 0.55% 0.02%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
mOOnGLaDe: 0.05% 0.29% 0.58% 1.13% 3.87% 6.98% 7.56% 9.51% 13.69% 13.09% 10.05% 10.27% 9.14% 5.22% 3.42% 2.86% 1.31% 0.53% 0.28% 0.12% 0.03%
Grubby: 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.47% 2.05% 4.35% 5.34% 7.25% 11.84% 12.83% 10.72% 11.98% 12.00% 7.61% 4.95% 4.30% 2.33% 0.88% 0.45% 0.31% 0.07%
Snute: 0.01% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.17% 0.33% 0.74% 1.77% 2.89% 3.69% 6.58% 10.06% 10.20% 10.61% 14.85% 13.30% 8.38% 7.85% 6.46% 2.03%
Dream: 0.02% 0.15% 0.31% 0.57% 1.47% 2.69% 3.49% 5.17% 8.09% 9.77% 9.21% 11.21% 12.39% 9.49% 7.97% 7.69% 4.76% 2.49% 1.85% 0.98% 0.22%
TLO: 0.00% 0.03% 0.05% 0.11% 0.47% 1.06% 1.51% 2.74% 5.73% 7.40% 7.94% 11.14% 14.07% 11.41% 9.78% 10.68% 7.33% 3.62% 2.71% 1.76% 0.45%
Tarson: 12.35% 23.90% 16.62% 11.94% 13.67% 10.15% 4.60% 3.05% 2.12% 0.92% 0.34% 0.21% 0.08% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% Group BPartinG Expected score: 4.51-0.49 (sets: 9.31-1.99) Probability of achieving top 3: 99.18% Most likely place: 1st (75.35%) LucifroN Expected score: 3.68-1.32 (sets: 7.99-3.71) Probability of achieving top 3: 91.46% Most likely place: 2nd (53.89%) Bly Expected score: 2.32-2.68 (sets: 5.65-6.19) Probability of achieving top 3: 40.86% Most likely place: 4th (31.25%) MaNa Expected score: 2.21-2.79 (sets: 5.52-6.39) Probability of achieving top 3: 35.00% Most likely place: 5th (33.37%) Tefel Expected score: 2.17-2.83 (sets: 5.30-6.52) Probability of achieving top 3: 33.47% Most likely place: 5th (33.74%) Siphonn Expected score: 0.12-4.88 (sets: 0.87-9.84) Probability of achieving top 3: 0.03% Most likely place: 6th (96.10%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Siphonn: 96.10% 3.55% 0.32% 0.03%
Bly: 0.78% 27.11% 31.25% 29.64% 9.77% 1.45%
LucifroN: 0.01% 2.13% 6.40% 16.82% 53.89% 20.75%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.11% 0.71% 3.61% 20.22% 75.35%
MaNa: 0.85% 33.37% 30.78% 24.18% 8.99% 1.83%
Tefel: 2.25% 33.74% 30.54% 25.73% 7.13% 0.61%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
Siphonn: 88.44% 11.16% 0.40% 0.00%
Bly: 0.40% 15.35% 43.79% 32.91% 7.17% 0.37%
LucifroN: 0.00% 0.50% 6.76% 30.17% 49.56% 13.01%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.01% 0.40% 6.45% 34.96% 58.18%
MaNa: 0.46% 21.28% 43.26% 27.71% 6.75% 0.53%
Tefel: 1.22% 20.15% 44.43% 29.39% 4.70% 0.10%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Siphonn: 43.39% 33.82% 9.95% 5.62% 4.83% 1.72% 0.35% 0.19% 0.10% 0.02% 0.01%
Bly: 0.01% 0.08% 0.15% 0.45% 2.43% 5.17% 5.95% 8.57% 15.32% 14.96% 10.95% 12.06% 11.21% 5.59% 3.01% 2.42% 1.17% 0.31% 0.14% 0.06% 0.01%
LucifroN: 0.00% 0.03% 0.11% 0.22% 0.43% 1.36% 2.53% 3.40% 6.14% 11.38% 10.88% 11.79% 18.11% 16.19% 7.14% 4.61% 4.26% 1.42%
PartinG: 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.23% 0.64% 1.89% 2.92% 4.01% 9.76% 14.91% 11.79% 15.06% 24.37% 14.28%
MaNa: 0.02% 0.09% 0.18% 0.49% 3.27% 7.20% 7.64% 9.25% 15.33% 14.86% 10.11% 10.22% 9.34% 5.01% 2.89% 2.29% 1.17% 0.34% 0.20% 0.08% 0.02%
Tefel: 0.06% 0.26% 0.43% 1.05% 4.14% 7.28% 7.43% 10.41% 16.38% 14.22% 9.94% 11.31% 8.98% 3.86% 2.07% 1.48% 0.57% 0.09% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% Group CYoDa Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.23-3.90) Probability of achieving top 3: 89.85% Most likely place: 1st (57.05%) Socke Expected score: 2.85-2.15 (sets: 6.74-5.51) Probability of achieving top 3: 65.94% Most likely place: 2nd (25.88%) jookTo Expected score: 2.53-2.47 (sets: 6.22-6.16) Probability of achieving top 3: 52.55% Most likely place: 3rd (20.68%) DieStar Expected score: 2.01-2.99 (sets: 5.40-7.04) Probability of achieving top 3: 32.92% Most likely place: 6th (25.90%) Verdi Expected score: 2.02-2.98 (sets: 5.24-6.95) Probability of achieving top 3: 31.64% Most likely place: 5th (23.57%) Nerchio Expected score: 1.84-3.16 (sets: 5.03-7.29) Probability of achieving top 3: 27.11% Most likely place: 6th (31.10%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
jookTo: 12.47% 16.43% 18.56% 20.68% 20.64% 11.22%
Socke: 6.35% 11.08% 16.63% 22.54% 25.88% 17.53%
Nerchio: 31.10% 23.73% 18.06% 13.67% 9.52% 3.92%
YoDa: 1.16% 3.02% 5.98% 10.87% 21.93% 57.05%
Verdi: 23.03% 23.57% 21.77% 16.78% 10.76% 4.10%
DieStar: 25.90% 22.17% 19.01% 15.46% 11.28% 6.18%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
jookTo: 2.38% 14.00% 32.17% 33.75% 15.40% 2.30%
Socke: 0.58% 7.68% 27.65% 38.48% 21.60% 4.01%
Nerchio: 9.28% 29.53% 35.64% 19.89% 5.20% 0.45%
YoDa: 0.08% 1.15% 8.22% 26.46% 40.85% 23.24%
Verdi: 5.28% 24.74% 39.24% 24.96% 5.41% 0.36%
DieStar: 7.43% 25.86% 34.81% 23.33% 7.55% 1.01%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
jookTo: 0.08% 0.43% 0.75% 1.17% 2.60% 4.55% 5.37% 7.22% 10.69% 11.06% 10.09% 11.45% 11.09% 7.68% 5.73% 4.88% 2.78% 1.24% 0.71% 0.33% 0.08%
Socke: 0.01% 0.10% 0.19% 0.33% 1.14% 2.26% 3.03% 4.79% 8.38% 10.03% 9.73% 12.44% 13.49% 9.85% 7.90% 7.17% 4.72% 2.08% 1.37% 0.82% 0.18%
Nerchio: 0.41% 2.03% 3.24% 4.04% 7.02% 10.32% 9.82% 10.72% 12.68% 10.63% 7.97% 7.42% 5.73% 3.25% 2.20% 1.51% 0.60% 0.23% 0.13% 0.04% 0.01%
YoDa: 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.15% 0.26% 0.46% 0.98% 2.11% 3.00% 4.12% 6.57% 9.70% 9.88% 10.91% 14.42% 12.51% 8.52% 7.96% 6.36% 2.04%
Verdi: 0.25% 1.15% 1.80% 2.74% 5.73% 8.52% 8.68% 10.89% 13.76% 12.04% 9.23% 9.11% 7.33% 3.91% 2.15% 1.61% 0.72% 0.20% 0.12% 0.05% 0.01%
DieStar: 0.32% 1.40% 2.47% 3.26% 5.81% 8.94% 9.04% 9.55% 12.07% 11.07% 8.85% 8.62% 6.91% 4.25% 3.04% 2.28% 1.11% 0.52% 0.30% 0.17% 0.02% Group DVortiX Expected score: 3.84-1.16 (sets: 8.31-3.53) Probability of achieving top 3: 93.94% Most likely place: 1st (60.61%) First Expected score: 2.93-2.07 (sets: 6.91-5.41) Probability of achieving top 3: 67.97% Most likely place: 2nd (26.03%) Kas Expected score: 2.47-2.53 (sets: 6.04-6.18) Probability of achieving top 3: 50.45% Most likely place: 3rd (22.53%) Golden Expected score: 2.11-2.89 (sets: 5.42-6.83) Probability of achieving top 3: 36.07% Most likely place: 5th (22.47%) Daisy Expected score: 2.05-2.95 (sets: 5.31-6.91) Probability of achieving top 3: 32.18% Most likely place: 5th (24.40%) ParanOid Expected score: 1.60-3.40 (sets: 4.53-7.66) Probability of achieving top 3: 19.39% Most likely place: 6th (39.67%) details, data source, code Detailed placement probabilities
6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Golden: 20.90% 22.47% 20.55% 18.15% 13.65% 4.27%
VortiX: 0.37% 1.59% 4.10% 9.83% 23.51% 60.61%
Kas: 11.55% 16.92% 21.08% 22.53% 19.85% 8.07%
First: 5.99% 10.47% 15.56% 20.80% 26.03% 21.14%
Daisy: 21.51% 24.40% 21.92% 17.39% 10.56% 4.23%
ParanOid: 39.67% 24.16% 16.78% 11.31% 6.40% 1.68%
Match score
0-5 1-4 2-3 3-2 4-1 5-0
Golden: 5.01% 22.61% 37.22% 26.97% 7.76% 0.44%
VortiX: 0.00% 0.34% 5.07% 27.20% 44.69% 22.70%
Kas: 1.88% 14.11% 35.13% 34.56% 13.11% 1.21%
First: 0.67% 7.64% 25.25% 36.65% 23.86% 5.93%
Daisy: 5.00% 23.78% 39.17% 25.59% 6.06% 0.41%
ParanOid: 13.22% 34.88% 34.00% 14.99% 2.79% 0.12%
Set score
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Golden: 0.22% 1.06% 1.77% 2.39% 4.96% 8.00% 8.14% 10.00% 13.31% 11.55% 9.52% 9.81% 7.87% 4.69% 3.07% 2.19% 0.97% 0.28% 0.10% 0.08% 0.01%
VortiX: 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.08% 0.13% 0.34% 1.14% 1.85% 2.68% 5.60% 9.55% 10.57% 10.76% 15.77% 14.98% 8.71% 8.04% 7.30% 2.47%
Kas: 0.08% 0.34% 0.63% 0.99% 2.56% 4.59% 5.55% 7.58% 11.80% 12.07% 10.46% 12.14% 11.37% 6.83% 5.28% 4.13% 2.24% 0.76% 0.38% 0.19% 0.02%
First: 0.02% 0.09% 0.20% 0.38% 0.99% 2.20% 3.02% 4.57% 7.58% 9.20% 9.10% 11.73% 12.77% 9.85% 8.45% 8.24% 5.33% 2.78% 2.09% 1.14% 0.26%
Daisy: 0.27% 1.01% 1.77% 2.49% 5.47% 8.41% 8.36% 10.44% 13.74% 12.29% 9.34% 9.50% 7.39% 4.01% 2.55% 1.79% 0.77% 0.24% 0.10% 0.06% 0.01%
ParanOid: 0.90% 3.14% 4.73% 5.49% 9.60% 12.49% 10.73% 11.05% 12.29% 9.59% 6.36% 5.67% 3.78% 1.98% 1.05% 0.76% 0.29% 0.07% 0.04% 0.02% Judging from the other predictions I've seen, people might be overestimating Nerchio and underestimating TLO. Then again, Nerchio has good results since last list update that are not yet accounted for. lol @ Nerchio Top 3 overalll this tour fo sho Note that your stats dont take things like home advantage into account, something which should never be underestimated Sure, but top 3? Doubt it. Nerchio is on a downward trend. There are definitely more than two other players with a better chance here than him (most would agree on Vortix, Parting, Snute, Lucifron at least, personally I'd include TLO, Yoda, and First too.) Usually I would agree but this is Poland, who knows, this might be the right moment for the Acer Ace to resurrect his strenght Bold or not bold, Predicting PartinG to win here against Nerchio in the finals.
i guess Nerchio is a type of guy that may get rather intimidated by fans than motivated
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ya maybe, but he should stomp most of his group nonetheless
ending up 6th would be quite anticlimatic lol
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God the place is just awesome!!!!!!!!!!
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Polish fans are ready 
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bjuQD.jpg)
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With the exception of Snute, mOOnGLaDe gonna beat everyone in his group. Maybe Grubby can take him out, but I doubt it.
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Please, give me trolldesk already.
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Great work again TheBB, but I really can't agree with nerchio getting last, even if he had a few underwhelming performances I'm pretty sure he will top his group today. He is no full time progamer and has his up and downs since he studies, but I'm sure he prepared for a tournament in his home country. But maybe math will prove me wrong, we'll see .
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nerchio last place according to statistic ???dafuq aint gonna happen
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Delay is e-sports tradition. Don't mess with it!
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You just have to love Carmac. The guy is so passionate!
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EPT
