As another writer's need to write a passionate argument shows, the Code S seed situation is not exactly clear cut. In 2012, the seed system changed to be one of pure discretion on GomTV's part, a marked change from the 2011 system, where there was a specific, pure merit based system that awarded a Code S seed to the highest placing player at an MLG event who did not already have a Code S seed.

In 2012's first season, the results of the change could not have been more apparent: EG.IdrA and GAMANIASen were awarded the seeds without having notable tournament results in the months preceding. Off the top of my head, EG.PuMa and Liquid`HerO were more deserving if you consider only tournament finishes (the new system also allowed GomTV to award seeds to Koreans). We all know the results: IdrA and Sen bombed out of Code S as last place in their groups. IdrA continued his fall into Code B, though Sen recovered and found a way into the Up-Down matches.

It was nothing if not predictable. If you exclude singular success story EG.HuK, the combined record of the thirteen international seed recipients was 14 wins and 51 losses in 2011. Oh, and most of them were seeded into Code A.

The GSL can't possibly think that their Code S picks for 2012 Season One were a success (unless, I dunno, a few thousand of you bought season tickets in order to see IdrA once). Perhaps Sen and IdrA could have done better in different groups, on a different day, but as the results stand, it was a blemish on the GSL's reputation as the most prestigious, difficult league in the world. Some kind of move back to a more meritocratic system is inevitable.

However, it's not possible to just pick guys that are known to be good. The selection should be justifiable in some kind of way (even if it is not completely transparent or explicit), and tournament results are the most convenient place to default to. At the same time, the aspect of making a calculated risk and discovering the new HuK (or, maybe just getting the old HuK) must still be considered, as a good gamble could draw a ton of international eyeballs. With those factors in mind, here are the three candidates that seem the most likely: EG.HuK, QxG.NaNiwa, and TSL_Polt. The two that are chosen will depend on how GSL weighs the various factors.


EG.HuK

After a disappointing finish to 2011, HuK took an extended vacation in Canada. In his first games back from his break, he produced yet another disappointing loss, losing to BumblebeePrime and fell to Code B. It was no cause for alarm, however, as it turned out to just be the bottom of yet another up and down cycle for HuK. He bounced back with a third place finish at MLG Winter Arena, similar to how he bounced back from a minor slump to win MLG Orlando last year.

HuK's recent tournament resume is a bit thin. He basically didn't do anything in 2012 until MLG Winter Arena, where he came in and blasted his way to third place. Other candidates either went all the way and took first place, or defeated a stronger pool of players in a non-first finish.

However, it doesn't really matter, as third place is a good pretty decent excuse to throw in the only blooded and proven Code S class foreigner, the only one that has shown he can actually stick around for a few rounds. There is a market out there, for whom the tipping point of buying a single Code S season ticket is seeing a foreigner duke it out evenly with the Koreans. HuK is the only person in the world who can honestly sell that ticket.


Quantic.NaNiwa

Well, no one is ever going to tell us if NaNiwa's reward for placing second at MLG Providence actually was the GSL Blizzard Cup, or if it was just something the GSL made up to revoke his 2012 Code S seed as punishment for his probe rush. In any case, he was considered before, and he will probably be considered again.

NaNiwa's performances vary wildly, but at least when he hits his highs, he could be even better than HuK. His MLG Providence run is fresh in everyone's memory, and he just added yet another Nestea kill and a Leenock revenge kill to his list of famous heads poached. As a guy who has the potential, at least, to make a very deep run into Code S, GSL must be very intrigued in NaNiwa. Some people would buy GSL tickets for a single series, if NaNiwa ever made the finals. Of course, the looming 0 – 10 record in GSL represents his lows quite well (although, you could argue many of those came before he hit his current skill level).

Top eight IEM Kiev and top eight MLG New York don't look very good on paper, but they're not things that will stop GomTV if they really wanted NaNiwa. I mean, does anyone even remember why mouzMorroW got an Up/Down seed, or even remember asking? A willingness to come to Korea and improve is all GomTV really needs to see. Add the flair NaNiwa's bad guy streak would add to an otherwise timid league, and you've got an enticing package.


TSL_Polt

As mentioned above, the GSL is willing to seed a player who does not have the best tournament results, as long as they really want him. Polt will test if they're ready to do the inverse: deny a seed to a player who DOES have all the tournament results. Polt has a first place finish at ASUS ROG Assembly Winner, two MSI Pro Cup victories, and a qualification for IPL4 through a very tough bracket as recent achievements. A foreigner with that resume would easily be called the best foreigner in the world.

As Fionn has so adeptly shown, you can almost shame the GSL into seeding Polt after the abysmal performances of foreigners this season. Forget his merits as a player (he's definitely Code S class, a guy who can keep bringing his best in the later rounds, and knows how to prepare for a series) – if the GSL doesn't seed Polt in favor of a foreigner, it would show GomTV doesn't mind tarnishing their reputation a little, in order to sell more tickets. It's something every tournament does to some degree, but it would be one of the most explicit admissions of that fact.

It's a delicate balance, as the GSLs reputation for being the world's most elite league is something that sells tickets as well. New viewers might come to watch NaNi or HuK, but the dissatisfaction of hardcore GSL fans might grow further if they were to bomb out like Sen and IdrA. The GSL will have to measure this choice very carefully.



Unlikely candidates (some more than others).

For fun, here are a few of the less likely, but still possible seed candidates.

Empire|viOLet: Like Polt, viOLet's championship performance at IEM Sao Paulo necessitates some form of recognition. Unfortunately for viOLet, the perception has been established that Assembly > IEM non-final events. IEM Global Challenge events are the kind of thing GomTV uses to justify splendid ideas like "let's put DongRaeGu in the Blizzard Cup," and not much else. The only way I see him getting the seed is if it Gom goes 100% conciliatory mode for Sen/IdrA, and go purely merit based with Polt and viOLet.

MarineKingPrime: If he should somehow lose his Code A match, and then drop out of the Up-Downs, then obviously MKP will get in.

EG.IdrA: If you're willing to sacrifice integrity, why not go the full nine yards?

EG.DeMusliM: Three conditions for this to even begin to be possible. 1) GomTV just can't stomach giving IdrA a seed next season, 2) They still have a grudge against NaNiwa/think he had enough chances, 3) DeMusliM states his desire to go to Korea in time.

Mill.Stephano: It's his the second he asks for it, so it's all contingent on his will to go to Korea. GomTV might really have to bribe him to make this worth his while.

Non-Code S, Winner of IEM Grand Finals: DRG, MC, and MMA already have Code S seeds. Zenio, SuperNoVa, and JYP could have them too, depending on how the up-downs go. Perhaps a high finish from Ret, and...


Whoever they choose, it will be a business decision for the GSL, and I think our collective acceptance of business decisions has grown considerably this weekend. It looks like MLG's paid off. Your move, GSL.






This article does not endorse the seeding of a specific player. It is a look at the factors that would affect such a decision, and speculation on the likely candidates based on those factors.