EPTI'd like to change my vote from abstain to Folca.
I'm not really sure about this but I have a feeling some voters started a let's lynch Ace bandwagon. Just going with my gut here.
TL Mafia 3 [Night 5] - Page 39
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wurm
Philippines2296 Posts
I'd like to change my vote from abstain to Folca. I'm not really sure about this but I have a feeling some voters started a let's lynch Ace bandwagon. Just going with my gut here. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Decaf did not die because of the coffee clue last game. Stop using this argument Folca. Decaf died because he misreported info to me when I was mayor, and along with the irc thing we assumed he had to be mafia. Thats why decaf died, we did it. Also there are not "several" clues pointing to me. There is one loose interpretation that the authority figure mentioned in the OP is referring to me. Also Folca I was not the one who called you on your flawed logic, I didn't even post till the next page. Get your facts straight. | ||
Empyrean
17004 Posts
See where I'm going with this? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
You seem so sure Folca is telling the truth, blind trust huh? | ||
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
On November 04 2008 10:04 Caller wrote: Here's an updated list because I'm nice  notes at bottomdecafchicken - 8 ~OpZ~ Amber[LighT] Alventenie Scorch xDark.Carnivalx goldenkrnboi KH1031 iNfuNdiBuLuM Folca - 15 Ace decafchicken Bockit bumatlarge MidnightGladius RtS)Night[Mare MTF BloodyC0bbler Camlito Jimtudor [GiTM]-Ace aZnvaLiaNce Mandalor nemY fusionsdf Ace - 15 HeRoS)Pink mikeymoo Empyrean araav Artanis G.s)NarutO ShadowDrgn Lenwe ZBiR fanatacist Caller Folca Falcynn clazziquai ulszz Abstain -4 XCetron KF91 wurm SoleSteeler Super Drunk (probably made out with a transvestite too) FakeSteve[TPR] MidnightGladius Plexa JeeJee Chezinu The bolded area is the Folca train, namely, four consecutive folca vote posts without any justification at all. Perhaps more interesting is that two of them are on my clues list. Italicized people are just general suspects of mine. I think there is a name missing... | ||
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Empyrean
17004 Posts
On November 04 2008 10:38 Ace wrote: Emp the medics don't know who each other are, so that idea goes out the window since it's not the mafia second guessing medic protection that's key but the medics guessing if the other medics will protect also. You seem so sure Folca is telling the truth, blind trust huh? Exactly. Each medic makes his/her individual random decision. If they would collude, it'd actually be worse for the town. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
On November 04 2008 10:36 Empyrean wrote: @MTF, Yes there is, and it's the possibility of him being able to use his powers again if some paramedics protect him. Mafia have the dilemma of how many hits to put on him and whether or not to use a suicide bomber on him, because they don't know what the paramedics are going to do. It's possible that none of them protect him, and mafia waste 3 hits on him, or even better, a suicide bomber, because they expect the paramedics to save him. So if they know this, they could use only one hit on him, knowing that paramedics might not save him. But then again, the paramedics might, so they just wasted a hit. See where I'm going with this? Yeah, this argument keeps being repeated. But the main problem I have with it is that there is equal opportunity for the same to happen to Ace if we lynch Folca and he turns up red. If Folca is red, then mafia has to decide whether or not to risk hitting Ace without knowing what sort of medic protection he will/will not get, same as with Folca. Both, if innocent, may absord hits the following night. In addition to this, Ace is not guaranteed to be under fire in the case that Folca turns up red, because mafia might reserve hits for others so that town has to decide whether or not to lynch Ace tomorrow or keep him alive. Folca will not get the same luxury, regardless. So, the question here is not whether or not hits will be used on whoever doesn't get lynched, but rather who we believe is more likely to be red and, if we are right, who would more likely live into the following day. The answer to the former can go either way, but the answer to the latter lies with Ace, not Folca. | ||
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[GiTM]-Ace
United States4935 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On November 04 2008 10:48 [GiTM]-Ace wrote: what if we lynch folca and hes regular towny? Then what will happen? we will be slightly annoyed and laugh it off, or think that a DT was speaking through him | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
edit: well, assuming the DT was legit. If Folca was green and randomly trusted some guy who said"Ace is mafia because I said, lulz" that would be ridiculous. | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
it would be really clever of mafia to feed false information to folca folca couldnt tell anyone who sent him the info because he cant trust any of us, but the mafia can manipulate the town to lynch, and by the time things are figured out folca is dead anyways and cant tell us which user manipulated him. Which is why townies should absolutely refuse to be mouthpieces for other players but folca says he is the DT, and not being fed info. So hopefully thats the truth | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
Ace Red -> dies: Means Folca is probably a detective, might or might not survive till day 2 to put down a list. If the Mafia don't kill him on night 2, this would be a very interesting situation. Ace Blue -> dies: Not good. Kill Folca, obviously. Ace Green -> dies: Repeat Folca Red -> dies: Means Ace is probably clear of any charges. Might or might not survive till day 2 which would be irrelevant if Ace has no specific role, and he would die pretty soon if he isn't mafia as well. Folca Blue -> dies: Not good. Kill Ace, obviously. Folca Green -> dies: wtf. The fact that Folca roleclaimed and said that he's a detective drastically reduces the chance of him being green. It means he's basically either a detective or mafia. Ace doesn't have this luxury, as there's a much bigger likeliness that Ace is green, statistically, then a detective. Since Folca can contribute more with his powers if he indeed is a detective then Ace could if he's green, coupled with the fact that Folca was willing to lynch himself at first (though this might've been part of the plan to sway votes, but I'm not completely convinced by that), I vote for Ace as I have already stated earlier. It will be a shame if Ace dies and is green, but let's face it: If Folca is mafia and gets lynched, it won't be long before the mafia kill Ace either. Statistically in terms of information the town can get, it would be a better idea to lynch Ace then Folca. | ||
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On November 04 2008 11:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Few situations: Ace Red -> dies: Means Folca is probably a detective, might or might not survive till day 2 to put down a list. If the Mafia don't kill him on night 2, this would be a very interesting situation. Ace Blue -> dies: Not good. Kill Folca, obviously. Ace Green -> dies: Repeat Folca Red -> dies: Means Ace is probably clear of any charges. Might or might not survive till day 2 which would be irrelevant if Ace has no specific role, and he would die pretty soon if he isn't mafia as well. Folca Blue -> dies: Not good. Kill Ace, obviously. Folca Green -> dies: wtf. The fact that Folca roleclaimed and said that he's a detective drastically reduces the chance of him being green. It means he's basically either a detective or mafia. Ace doesn't have this luxury, as there's a much bigger likeliness that Ace is green, statistically, then a detective. Since Folca can contribute more with his powers if he indeed is a detective then Ace could if he's green, coupled with the fact that Folca was willing to lynch himself at first (though this might've been part of the plan to sway votes, but I'm not completely convinced by that), I vote for Ace as I have already stated earlier. It will be a shame if Ace dies and is green, but let's face it: If Folca is mafia and gets lynched, it won't be long before the mafia kill Ace either. Statistically in terms of information the town can get, it would be a better idea to lynch Ace then Folca. We're not going to have those detective abilities by Day 2 if Folca is a detective. There is a 1/3 shot that Ace could be a mafia, while Folca is 1/2. I feel like the higher risk in this case is to keep Folca alive because we lose both. If we keep Ace alive and we accidentally do kill our detective, then the vigilante should step in and kill Ace overnight. I'm going to switch my vote from DecafChicken to Folca. | ||
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
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Empyrean
17004 Posts
On November 04 2008 11:30 Amber[LighT] wrote: We're not going to have those detective abilities by Day 2 if Folca is a detective. There is a 1/3 shot that Ace could be a mafia, while Folca is 1/2. I feel like the higher risk in this case is to keep Folca alive because we lose both. If we keep Ace alive and we accidentally do kill our detective, then the vigilante should step in and kill Ace overnight. I'm going to switch my vote from DecafChicken to Folca. This is just bullshit. Both of them have 1/5 chance of them being mafia and 3/50 chance of being detectives. To the town, their behaviors will "weight" what we think of these probabilities, that is, whether it's more or less likely for them to be mafia or detective, based on their behavior. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On November 04 2008 11:36 Empyrean wrote: This is just bullshit. Both of them have 1/5 chance of them being mafia and 3/50 chance of being detectives. To the town, their behaviors will "weight" what we think of these probabilities, that is, whether it's more or less likely for them to be mafia or detective, based on their behavior. You're willing to sacrifice a strong player because someone claims to be a DT? Cmon you've played this before. There is 1 outlandish clue about Ace that doesn't even really hold, and one rolecheck that evidently included other players as well. I'd rather vote based upon clues only, but in this case we cannot guarantee that the information provided is accurate. | ||
Mynock
4492 Posts
I don't think so. Please place yourselves into mafia shoes. If Folca was indeed lying, what would it bring to mafia? A dead mafia member, nothing more. If you start off from the basis, that only one of them is red, the only logical solution is indeed what Ace and others have proposed: to lynch the accuser. And I don't think the mafia is too stupid to not realize this. What I'm trying to do is, imagining all the possibilities, in case Folca is mafia - what would the mafia gain by such a move, what are the permutations that would make it worth it for mafia? So from my thinking, the possibilities are as follows: Ace is lynched, turns red. ->> The chance of Folca being a mafia is still there, but very slim. Folca claimed a detective role, and provided a test. If he is indeed blue, the mafia would be foolish to leave him alive, since if they did, the town would very soon suspect something and lynch him anyway, however in the meanwhile, Folca could gather a lot of information, so it's not an option for mafia IMHO. If the mafia wants an advantage from such a situation (Folca red, Ace green), they have to convince the town that lynching Ace before Folca is the right move to do. However Folca started off by saying that he himself should be lynched, so that doesn't seem VERY plausible (but not 0%). Ace is lynched, turns green. ->> Folca is mafia, and we have some stupid mafia this game. (Or Folca is a very bored towny, venting his frustration over a vanilla role - very slim chance tho). Ace then dies of a mafia attack, very soon. Folca is lynched, turnes green ->> Ace is mafia, no doubt about it. Also, lots of other people quickly ganging up upon Folca could quickly come under suspicion. Unfortunately, we lose a DT right away, and again, unfortunately, we won't know if Ace was indeed worth so much as to make such a sacrifice, but so far, he seems to have a lot of influence, so it was not completely irrational of Folca to come out like this (irrational, but with certain merits). Folca is lynched, turnes red ->> Ace could now very well be innocent, BUT! What if the mafia's plan was to plant into town a player who the town seems to inherently trust on the chance he is green based off of last game? Then Ace would be the #1 prime candidate (as well as Plexa, MTF, then some others...) for that sort of trick. So unfortunately, as I see it, if we lynch Folca and he turns red, it does not prove Ace is completely innocent at all. Especially, since if you consider that after the dust settles and Folca is painted red, Ace would become a #1 target for mafia as well. Or rather, SHOULD. Since if Ace is mafia, mafia would like to keep him in a leading role as long as possible. So a wasted towny is almost guaranteed in either case (unless both of them are red), as the suicide bomber is a constant threat, and we can't protect such prominent targets (DT, or a leader). So in all reality, according to those scenarios, BOTH should actually die soon, one way or another. The question is only, which one do we lynch ourselves, and who do we leave up to mafia? I say neither. There is a third option. We can pretend nothing much happened. Think with the mafia's heads. They want disorder, miscommunication, confusion. We want to think clearly. So how can we think clearly? We know the following, 100%: AT LEAST ONE of either Ace or Folca is MAFIA. Maybe both are. but at least one. This is information that helps the Town. Don't make hasty decisions. Weigh this information, act accordingly. I'm not going into personalities, post history, clues, none of that. Just plain logic. If mafia decides not to kill any of them, fine - we still retain the information, that's a gain for us. If mafia decides to kill Folca because they now know he's a detective - fine, we kill Ace once Folca flips blue. Mafia won't kill both, since one is mafia. So turn the position around on them. Have them make the decisions, let them think. Vot for someone else, and keep the most important thing in this game - information! Remember, right now, the individual chances of both Folca or Ace being mafia are more than 50%! That's important information! As for the vote: I myself, will vote for decafchiken. My reasons are a combination of the above, and the fact that I'm not good with clue interpretations, so I just try to listen to others about that. Mass abstaining doesn't seem too viable, and I don't want either Folca or Ace lynched right now (as explained above), so I will go with a vote that might hopefully override the current count. That's it from me for today, just one small addendum at the end: Ace is a smart guy, and an experienced mafia player. The way he jumped to the lynching conclusion is a bit weird to me, and makes me slightly suspicious. Slightly. Unless there is some flaw in my reasoning, which I leave up to you guys to point out. | ||
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Empyrean
17004 Posts
The fact that no other person claiming to be DT has spoken up saying that they investigated him and that Folca is mafia pretty much ensures that Folca isn't mafia. I'm pretty sure that once Folca roleclaimed DT, another one checked him out, found out he was DT, and decided to stay silent. They'd only pull the alarm if Folca were actually mafia. Honestly. If any of you guys were DT and someone claimed they were DT and accused Ace, wouldn't your natural reaction be to investigate Folca and see if he were lying? Exactly. I'm positive that some other DT has investigated Folca, found him to be DT, and is thus remaining silent. | ||
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decafchicken
United States20053 Posts
On November 04 2008 11:46 Empyrean wrote: The thing is, by roleclaiming DT, obviously some other DT would be suspicious and rolecheck him. The fact that no other person claiming to be DT has spoken up saying that they investigated him and that Folca is mafia pretty much ensures that Folca isn't mafia. I'm pretty sure that once Folca roleclaimed DT, another one checked him out, found out he was DT, and decided to stay silent. They'd only pull the alarm if Folca were actually mafia. Honestly. If any of you guys were DT and someone claimed they were DT and accused Ace, wouldn't your natural reaction be to investigate Folca and see if he were lying? Exactly. I'm positive that some other DT has investigated Folca, found him to be DT, and is thus remaining silent. or the other DTs already used their ability, don't want to die, etc. | ||
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