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Sydney2287 Posts
The argument that
losing a dt doesn't equal killing a mafia because they don't lose killing power
is incredibly flawed. Let me put it this way. If he is a dt and we lynch ace, he dies tonight, 100% guaranteed. There won't be any extra information to get, because he will be dead. If he isn't a dt, we just killed a mafia because I don't believe a townie is gonna be that stupid to roleclaim detective and accuse someone who has an important a role as ace.
Yes I'm saying ace has a role, it's not one of roles listed in the OP, it's a meta role. Ace will say something and people will listen. This is important to have, even if it is a double edged sword (If he's wrong... or mafia). If he is mafia, we find out if folca flips blue. And vigilantes or we kill him the next day. If Folca flips red, we still don't have confirmation on ace, but it looks better for him.
To emphasis this again.
If we don't kill folca today, and Ace flips red, he dies tonight. Any argument for getting extra information is flawed.
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Okay, I have had some time to think this over now.
##I change my vote to decafchicken
If my intuition serves me well, a vigilante may very well target either Folca or Ace tonight, depending on what happens after the lynch. Voting either Folca or Ace is way too risky for me: best case scenario, we get 1 mafia. Worst case, we lose either a DT or an extremely strong player first day... either way very bad. To me, lynching Ace on the chance that Folca is telling the truth is illogical.
I'm not expecting a mass change of votes to decaf here, i just want to express my feelings that voting either way for Folca or Ace will not have good results. abstaining provides no information to the town at all, so i figure that by changing to vote for decaf i can remain separate from this snafu while showing my discontent 
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Bockit, this is where the whole "Lynch Decaf" stigma came from, if we lynch ace we risk losing a valuable player, I admit that. If we lynch me and I am in fact a detective we have effectively done the mafia's job for the night, since if they wait and don't kill me in the night I get to check out another player and there are already some good suspects. So the chances are we would get 2 mafia from losing myself
The thing you said about the whole clue information is true, I agree. But clue information does not equal me getting to check one more person. Plus you IGNORE the fact that if I am indeed a detective theres a huge chance the mafia will kill me anyway, before I get to check another person. Meaning my true colors will be revealed, and well. If the mafia for some unknown reason doesn't kill me. Then you can always lynch me the next day.
Also keep in mind, there was minimal clues pointing to me so far, while there are several that hint Ace a bit. There was one person who barely mentioned it, I forgot their name. Something about the cute picture of my profile
Now to elaborate on something I feel I haven't covered quite well. The whole "Lynch Decaf" stigma, as pointed out before Chuiu accidentally said coffee last game which resulted in Decaf's premature death. Why would he release the same clue again when he stated that he does NOT purposely release red herring? Yet he does the same one again?
If I had it my way, we would vote Ace immdiately, however I understand how a lot of people didn't want to get rid of him that early based off of just my word, then someone mentioned an idea and voted decaf. In my opinion, the way Ace stepped up to defend Decaf was very suspicious, since I know Ace is Mafia, I can't see why he would try to save Decaf instead of trying to scape goat him instead. If we kill decaf it revelas nothing about either of us. However I know that if we kill Decaf there is a very good chance the mafia will kill me, which then also confirm Ace.
Thats my logic behind the whole "Lynch Decaf" thing, it isn't based off of a cup of coffee final meal reference. I put a lot more thought into it. Trying to figure out if Chuiu would make the same mistake twice? I decided I didn't think he did and even if I'm wrong about Decaf, since I admit, thats my guess work NOT my checking power. You can still vote to kill me if for some reason the mafia does, but at this point, if I am telling the truth you are all wasting a lynch and helping the mafia.
Oh and about my mistake in the how mafia can vote thing, I admit I was flawed in my logic there slightly, however Ace blew it way out of proportion, upon rereading the post with my information about how mafia can vote. It really didn't change that much, it just made me look a little misinformed/noobie to the game. Which it's my first time playing, I'm allowed to make mistakes, so please don't fully hold that one against me without reading the post.
I will change my vote back to decaf if I view it likely that we will get enough to lynch him, however the Ace band wagon is good as well, so I will stay there until then
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Sydney2287 Posts
On November 04 2008 09:25 Folca wrote:
Bockit, this is where the whole "Lynch Decaf" stigma came from, if we lynch ace we risk losing a valuable player, I admit that. If we lynch me and I am in fact a detective we have effectively done the mafia's job for the night, since if they wait and don't kill me in the night I get to check out another player and there are already some good suspects. So the chances are we would get 2 mafia from losing myself
This all works out if there wasn't the possibility you weren't a detective. See edit.
The thing you said about the whole clue information is true, I agree. But clue information does not equal me getting to check one more person. Plus you IGNORE the fact that if I am indeed a detective theres a huge chance the mafia will kill me anyway, before I get to check another person. Meaning my true colors will be revealed, and well. If the mafia for some unknown reason doesn't kill me. Then you can always lynch me the next day.
Please see my previous post, I just explained why we should lynch you based on the thing you just said I ignore.
At the moment the fact that you are a detective or not is worthless. If you are a detective, you are going to die before you can use your ability again. If you aren't a detective, then everything you've said gets to be used in looking for more mafia. (All your accusations etc).
EDIT: Actually your first point doesn't work out. If we lynch ace and he flips red, there is no way mafia will keep you alive this night. Detective is the most dangerous role for them. There won't be any extra information because you will be dead.
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Ok, since it seems theres a movement to lynch Ace tonight, which I think is faulty, I'll try to exemplify this for everyone:
Reasons to Lynch Ace:
Clues:
+ Show Spoiler +
""We can trust no mayor, no governor, no authority this day or the next."
May relate to his role in the last game as an authority figure.
Other:
+ Show Spoiler +
He has been accused of a rolecheck by Folca, who has made several posts trying to provide information.
Reasons to Lynch Folca:
Clues:
+ Show Spoiler +"Many in the crowd were excessively enthusiastic about the lynching and many were grave and quiet." May be a reference to his profile picture.
Other:
+ Show Spoiler +
He has accused Ace of being rolechecked as mafia and implicated several other prominent players, myself included, with faulty and rushed reasoning.
Overall View:
Lynching Ace or Folca is a fifty/fifty gamble, which is better than can be said of lynching any other person in the game right now. That being said, Ace has been setting plans into motion from the beginning and engaging in active discussion with the people trying to organize town. This is a good thing, and Ace's plans have not been openly malicious and have helped move town along in discussion and avoid the mistake (ironically) of revealing DT's for the towns gain due to the suicide bomber.
Now, this is not to say I believe Ace is town for sure, as what he has done is the only smart thing he could do given the previous game. Ace is not proven innocent by any means. Neither, however, is Folca. And Folca came out of nowhere with his accusation and proceeded to call out several people with absolutely no basis for most of it. Now, mafia or true detective, this was not a smart thing to do. Considering this, one must ask the origin of the actions' desperation: the only thing other than simple foolishness I can think of is that everything is less organized this early in the game. That can only benefit mafia, as they start off from the very beginning in a structured manner. Accusing key members early on would only benefit them.
Now, assuming Ace's innocence, implicating and taking him out this early on would eliminate one of the strongest structures that town could organize itself around. This alone may be worth the attempt by mafia, especially if they're banking on him having an additional role, as nearly half of all of the town does. I can see it argued the other way around easily enough, though, and it is a fair view to have that doing this as a mafia member or a true detective doesn't make much sense this early on. But Folca has done it, and we can only prove the why by lynching one tonight.
The evidence that either is telling the truth is about even. The matter of choosing is simply in the behavior, and the hoped-for outcome, as either way we risk losing someone of value. Personally, I think Folca is lying, and even if he weren't, town wouldn't get a proven DT the following day, because mafia would be insane to keep a revealed DT alive. So, there is only one argument for voting Ace over Folca: You believe Folca for whatever reason and want to make mafia waste a hit tonight. However, the same exact thing can be said of Ace, as if Folca is indeed red, then they wanted Ace dead early on, and will undoubtably use at least one hit on him tonight.
I guess that about sums up my feelings on the matter. Ace is inherently more valuable as a structure than an unproven detective that has been revealed if he is indeed innocent.
Edit: As I wrote this, Bockit essentially put it in a much more succient manner. :p
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On November 04 2008 09:05 Bockit wrote:
The argument that
losing a dt doesn't equal killing a mafia because they don't lose killing power
is incredibly flawed. Let me put it this way. If he is a dt and we lynch ace, he dies tonight, 100% guaranteed. There won't be any extra information to get, because he will be dead. If he isn't a dt, we just killed a mafia because I don't believe a townie is gonna be that stupid to roleclaim detective and accuse someone who has an important a role as ace.
Yes I'm saying ace has a role, it's not one of roles listed in the OP, it's a meta role. Ace will say something and people will listen. This is important to have, even if it is a double edged sword (If he's wrong... or mafia). If he is mafia, we find out if folca flips blue. And vigilantes or we kill him the next day. If Folca flips red, we still don't have confirmation on ace, but it looks better for him.
To emphasis this again.
If we don't kill folca today, and Ace flips red, he dies tonight. Any argument for getting extra information is flawed.
I dont know it seems to balance out to me
if we lynch folca, mafia wont kill ace (either he is mafia or an unattractive target)
So we will have to kill him the next night if he is mafia
if we lynch ace, and hes mafia, mafia will kill folca this night, but at least ace is dead
If we lynch ace and hes not mafia, we have to wait until the next night to lynch him
so really it comes down to who you believe more, and who would be more useful to the town. We know if folca is innocent he will be killed by mafia right away. If Ace is innocent, they might kill him right away (since town now knows he innocent, mafia might as well get him out of the way)
honestly, I dont know which way to go on this one
it seems we have to lynch either ace or folca (if you vote for neither I really dont know what the fuck youre doing), but its not clear which one is best to vote for
(this post is probably incomprehensible because Im tired as hell)
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MTF I love your clue analysis
<3
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On November 04 2008 09:43 fusionsdf wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2008 09:05 Bockit wrote:
The argument that
losing a dt doesn't equal killing a mafia because they don't lose killing power
is incredibly flawed. Let me put it this way. If he is a dt and we lynch ace, he dies tonight, 100% guaranteed. There won't be any extra information to get, because he will be dead. If he isn't a dt, we just killed a mafia because I don't believe a townie is gonna be that stupid to roleclaim detective and accuse someone who has an important a role as ace.
Yes I'm saying ace has a role, it's not one of roles listed in the OP, it's a meta role. Ace will say something and people will listen. This is important to have, even if it is a double edged sword (If he's wrong... or mafia). If he is mafia, we find out if folca flips blue. And vigilantes or we kill him the next day. If Folca flips red, we still don't have confirmation on ace, but it looks better for him.
To emphasis this again.
If we don't kill folca today, and Ace flips red, he dies tonight. Any argument for getting extra information is flawed. I dont know it seems to balance out to me if we lynch folca, mafia wont kill ace (either he is mafia or an unattractive target) So we will have to kill him the next night if he is mafia if we lynch ace, and hes mafia, mafia will kill folca this night, but at least ace is dead If we lynch ace and hes not mafia, we have to wait until the next night to lynch him so really it comes down to who you believe more, and who would be more useful to the town. We know if folca is innocent he will be killed by mafia right away. If Ace is innocent, they might kill him right away (since town now knows he innocent, mafia might as well get him out of the way) honestly, I dont know which way to go on this one it seems we have to lynch either ace or folca (if you vote for neither I really dont know what the fuck youre doing), but its not clear which one is best to vote for (this post is probably incomprehensible because Im tired as hell)
if mafia kills folca tonight then that's one hit for someone else who didn't play as boneheaded to be not dead. Not to mention they might suicide folca on the chance that someone is protecting him tonight.
If we lynch folca now we don't get that chance. He's dead today or tonight or tomorrow anyways, that's not an issue, worst case scenario we just vig him or something.
By the way mad hatters if you are out there i would put a bomb on midnightgladius and possibly decafchicken right now.
edit: MTF your argument does make sense but it is still flawed in the sense that you've forgotten what if both of them are mafia. Under the assumption that Folca did a dumb play (which I doubt as mafia is too highly organized for this), why would they do something so stupid? Answer: to keep one of their brethren and give them higher status. This would explain why a large amount of people voted for Folca randomly, as by lynching folca, if he flips red that would "mean" Ace is "green" which may or may not be the case.
Or they vote for him b/c he's a blue and by making us waste a lynch and not one of their hits they get an advantage here.
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I've finally caught up - tgwjiy
i have a few suspicions based on behaviour in this thread. but really, the outcome of folca/ace will reveal so much information; it's likely everything i have now will be rendered totally baseless, so i will wait. p.s. how long until day? and could we get an updated vote list?
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On November 04 2008 09:34 Bockit wrote:
At the moment the fact that you are a detective or not is worthless. If you are a detective, you are going to die before you can use your ability again.
The mafia will have to use more of their killing power to take him down if he's a DT because of potential paramedics, and he may even live. I think it's extremely unlikely that the suicide bomber would take himself out of the game on the first night, even if it makes strategic sense to take the risk.
I still think outing himself as a DT on the first day was a bad decision, but at least it has given us a ton of posts to analyze for later on. This is much better than taking a shot in the dark on day 1 clues.
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Here's an updated list because I'm nice notes at bottom
decafchicken - 8
~OpZ~
Amber[LighT]
Alventenie
Scorch
xDark.Carnivalx
goldenkrnboi
KH1031
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Folca - 15
Ace
decafchicken
Bockit
bumatlarge
MidnightGladius
RtS)Night[Mare
MTF
BloodyC0bbler
Camlito
Jimtudor
[GiTM]-Ace
aZnvaLiaNce
Mandalor
nemY
fusionsdf
Ace - 15
HeRoS)Pink
mikeymoo
Empyrean
araav
Artanis
G.s)NarutO
ShadowDrgn
Lenwe
ZBiR
fanatacist
Caller
Folca
Falcynn
clazziquai
ulszz
Abstain -4
XCetron
KF91
wurm
SoleSteeler
Super Drunk (probably made out with a transvestite too)
FakeSteve[TPR]
MidnightGladius
Plexa
JeeJee
Chezinu
The bolded area is the Folca train, namely, four consecutive folca vote posts without any justification at all. Perhaps more interesting is that two of them are on my clues list.
Italicized people are just general suspects of mine.
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On November 04 2008 09:58 JeeJee wrote:
I've finally caught up - tgwjiy
i have a few suspicions based on behaviour in this thread. but really, the outcome of folca/ace will reveal so much information; it's likely everything i have now will be rendered totally baseless, so i will wait. p.s. how long until day? and could we get an updated vote list?
Edit: Nevermind, Caller reposted it above me.
I obviously don't agree with the lynching of Decaf, MidnightGladius, or JeeJee, given our current situation and the fact that they're all being voted for based off of clues from the very first day.
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On November 04 2008 08:11 Caller wrote:Here's an updated list because I'm nice notes at bottom decafchicken - 7~OpZ~ Amber[LighT] Alventenie Scorch xDark.Carnivalx goldenkrnboi KH1031 Folca - 16Acedecafchicken Bockit bumatlarge MidnightGladiusRtS)Night[Mare MTF BloodyC0bbler Camlito Jimtudor clazziquai
[GiTM]-Ace
aZnvaLiaNce
Mandalor nemY fusionsdf Ace - 12HeRoS)Pink mikeymoo Empyrean araav Artanis G.s)NarutO ShadowDrgn Lenwe ZBiR fanatacist Caller Folca Abstain -7XCetron KF91 wurm Falcynn SoleSteeleriNfuNdiBuLuM Super Drunk (probably made out with a transvestite too) FakeSteve[TPR] MidnightGladius Plexa JeeJeeChezinu The bolded area is the Folca train, namely, four consecutive folca vote posts without any justification at all. Perhaps more interesting is that two of them are on my clues list. Italicized people are just general suspects of mine.
I explained in an earlier post i thought. voting decaf= stupid might as well pick a number on the list and vote them if your gonna vote decaf. So that leaves ace of folca and well I believe ace more so im voting folca. If folca is DT we kill ace no biggie. If folca is mafia we get rid of 1 plus keep a strong player. If we do ace and ace is mafia folca is dead anyway. So either way folca is gonna die right. But there is still a chance at an innocent making it out of this without dying.
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On November 04 2008 10:07 [GiTM]-Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2008 08:11 Caller wrote:Here's an updated list because I'm nice notes at bottom decafchicken - 7~OpZ~ Amber[LighT] Alventenie Scorch xDark.Carnivalx goldenkrnboi KH1031 Folca - 16Acedecafchicken Bockit bumatlarge MidnightGladiusRtS)Night[Mare MTF BloodyC0bbler Camlito Jimtudor clazziquai
[GiTM]-Ace
aZnvaLiaNce
Mandalor nemY fusionsdf Ace - 12HeRoS)Pink mikeymoo Empyrean araav Artanis G.s)NarutO ShadowDrgn Lenwe ZBiR fanatacist Caller Folca Abstain -7XCetron KF91 wurm Falcynn SoleSteeleriNfuNdiBuLuM Super Drunk (probably made out with a transvestite too) FakeSteve[TPR] MidnightGladius Plexa JeeJeeChezinu The bolded area is the Folca train, namely, four consecutive folca vote posts without any justification at all. Perhaps more interesting is that two of them are on my clues list. Italicized people are just general suspects of mine. I explained in an earlier post i thought. voting decaf= stupid might as well pick a number on the list and vote them if your gonna vote decaf. So that leaves ace of folca and well I believe ace more so im voting folca. If folca is DT we kill ace no biggie. If folca is mafia we get rid of 1 plus keep a strong player. If we do ace and ace is mafia folca is dead anyway. So either way folca is gonna die right. But there is still a chance at an innocent making it out of this without dying.
people have ignored information that pretty well saves decaf, and have voted anyway, but the majority has been smart and kept to voting for folca and ace which are the two predominant suspects for day 1. The people who have voted for decaf will most likely keep the vote that way as they don't read clue analysis by the looks of it.
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ok wow i didn't expect ace and folca to be so close
uh
in the meantime ill just vote for ## imDerek just to be on a non-abstained list for DTs sake and he was the first on the mafia player list
ill monitor the ace/folca votes though
chuiu please give ~30min notice before closing voting? i think many will appreciate it
here's my take on the situation
folca causes confusion, accused ace by claiming DT and now ace is actually being lynched? based off of what a person said? i myself think that folca's not lying but just believing him is pretty f'ing stupid. i thought alve made a decent argument for lynching folca on day2, but where the hell did the idea for lynching ace on day1 come from?
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On November 04 2008 10:07 [GiTM]-Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2008 08:11 Caller wrote:Here's an updated list because I'm nice notes at bottom decafchicken - 7~OpZ~ Amber[LighT] Alventenie Scorch xDark.Carnivalx goldenkrnboi KH1031 Folca - 16Acedecafchicken Bockit bumatlarge MidnightGladiusRtS)Night[Mare MTF BloodyC0bbler Camlito Jimtudor clazziquai
[GiTM]-Ace
aZnvaLiaNce
Mandalor nemY fusionsdf Ace - 12HeRoS)Pink mikeymoo Empyrean araav Artanis G.s)NarutO ShadowDrgn Lenwe ZBiR fanatacist Caller Folca Abstain -7XCetron KF91 wurm Falcynn SoleSteeleriNfuNdiBuLuM Super Drunk (probably made out with a transvestite too) FakeSteve[TPR] MidnightGladius Plexa JeeJeeChezinu The bolded area is the Folca train, namely, four consecutive folca vote posts without any justification at all. Perhaps more interesting is that two of them are on my clues list. Italicized people are just general suspects of mine. I explained in an earlier post i thought. voting decaf= stupid might as well pick a number on the list and vote them if your gonna vote decaf. So that leaves ace of folca and well I believe ace more so im voting folca. If folca is DT we kill ace no biggie. If folca is mafia we get rid of 1 plus keep a strong player. If we do ace and ace is mafia folca is dead anyway. So either way folca is gonna die right. But there is still a chance at an innocent making it out of this without dying.
what are you talking about
an innocent that makes it out of this dying? they'll kill someone else tonight either way. Better to let them kill an exposed DT than us. Ideally we wouldn't kill either, but people are blind so the 2nd best option is Ace.
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I'm catching up on this thread but people's reasoning is still making no sense.
Folca accused ME, I didn't accuse him. Keep this point in mind, because this is the whole entire basis of the logic tree.
Folca'a DT status can't be proven. We have no idea who the other DTs investigated, and we have no clue if they are going to hold off on any info knowing the truth about Folca's role (akin to what people said that if Folca was a real DT, he wouldn't have rushed this so fast).
It does not matter what kind of long term scenario you are thinking about, how many possible outcomes this can flip, who benefits the town more - FORGET IT.
You have to lynch the accuser that can't be verified. It's the only move that makes sense. It's day one of the game, anyone can claim anything and there aren't enough clues to make anyone's case stronger. You lynch the guy who is accusing, depending on what he flips the town takes action on the one who didn't get lynched.
Lynch me first, I flip green/blue and the mafia laugh as you've not only lost a strong player, but you can't use the plan I came up with, you know Folca is red but you are no closer to finding out any other critical info about the rest of the mafia since possibly innocent townies are duped into the backwards logic several people have been using and it's a big mess to figure out. A lot of people have been blindly supporting Folca's logic on the off chance that he COULD be blue - but it doesn't matter because you have to do the most sound plan that helps the town.
Lynch me first, I flip red and great! Folca would still die at night without killing the mafia Killing Power, and he can't use any more role checks.
Lynch Folca first, he flips blue/green. Well, that would be nasty but then you know for sure I'm mafia.Then you can question why I've defended decaf and Midnight Gladius all you want but it should be obvious why I have.
Lynch Folca first, he flips red. Great! We move on with the game and try to find out why players who couldn't have known so much info blindly supported Folca when he even messed up his reasoning a few times and named several players off of one role check.
Now out of these 4 situations which ones make SENSE?
The last 2. Because the burden of proof is on Folca, NOT me. Like I've said before, trying to ask "but why would mafia do that?" is pointless. It's day one, you can't possibly have any idea what their motives are because no one has died yet. Do the logical move, not the hopeful one. When I flip green/blue a lot of people are gonna be sorry.
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16945 Posts
Folca might get paramedic protection, but mafia might assume that he won't because of the threat of suicide bombers against the paramedics so just send in normal hits, but then Folca's paramedics will save him. Very hard to determine what'll happen from this, the best course of action is to just weight decisions and either protect him or not protect him randomly. Similarly, the best course of action for mafia if they want to kill Folca is to weight the decisions (using up a suicide bomber or however many hits) and go randomly from there.
Again, incomplete information sucks.
Also, having mafia send in at least one hit for Folca makes sure that another innocent townie doesn't die.
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On November 04 2008 09:58 Caller wrote:
edit: MTF your argument does make sense but it is still flawed in the sense that you've forgotten what if both of them are mafia. Under the assumption that Folca did a dumb play (which I doubt as mafia is too highly organized for this), why would they do something so stupid? Answer: to keep one of their brethren and give them higher status. This would explain why a large amount of people voted for Folca randomly, as by lynching folca, if he flips red that would "mean" Ace is "green" which may or may not be the case.
Or they vote for him b/c he's a blue and by making us waste a lynch and not one of their hits they get an advantage here.
This is definitely a possibility, though it would be even more of a gamble than any of the other scenarios put forth. That being said, my position still stands that it's worth more to take Folca down first with the possibility that Ace is alive than the other way around, as Folca will be a mafia target tonight if he is not lynched. Ace is pretty likely to be killed tonight by lynching or mafia, too, granted, but mafia are much more likely to leave him alive then they are Folca. Folca has a publically revealed role as a detective if we lynch Ace and find him red, whereas Ace will be under suspicion if we find red in Folca and Ace doesn't get killed.
So, Folca equals sure death in this cycle, making him of less worth than Ace, who equals probable death in this cycle. There's just no benefit to keeping Folca alive over Ace here.
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EPT
