EPTWinter Warfare Mafia
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
 Excited for the 12 player game. Increases my chance of finding mafia to 27.2%, higher than my normal 25% average! | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 12:04 Alakaslam wrote: No idea. I'm gonna use smilies because I'm smily, simple as that.Wait didn't someone once say smilies are sus? Was that during the 3 year absence? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I do find it interesting that there is a mason mechanic this game. Not sure if there is any way to realistically use that to our advantage, but I guess it probably doesn't hurt? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 12:49 sandroba wrote: Can I ask about your thoughts on Alakaslam? Like, what was the mentality behind posting the bolded section?Hi everyone, excited to be playing a game after being away from Mafia for so long! I believe I have some familiarity with most if not all players on the list, although I might be very outdated in accessing their meta. So far we have Alakaslam who I feel is posting within what I expected, not leaning one way or the other based on his initial posts. I like the poking about smiles being sus, but at the same time, it's phrased as a question so there is a bit of avoidance in there as well. Again, not very telling. For Trfel, some might say I'm nit-picking, but I don't like the self-demeaning tone about his performance right out of the gate. Also, some generic advice and deadlines which sounds like trying to say something just to fit in. This could be understandable because we are mostly trying to generate some content at this point and get the discussion going, but this advice at this point so far away from the deadline doesn't do us much good at face value or as a conversation starter. Leaning suspicious from what I've seen so far. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 12:49 sandroba wrote: I guess instead of waiting I'll let the cat out of the bag, I'm impatient.Hi everyone, excited to be playing a game after being away from Mafia for so long! I believe I have some familiarity with most if not all players on the list, although I might be very outdated in accessing their meta. So far we have Alakaslam who I feel is posting within what I expected, not leaning one way or the other based on his initial posts. I like the poking about smiles being sus, but at the same time, it's phrased as a question so there is a bit of avoidance in there as well. Again, not very telling. For Trfel, some might say I'm nit-picking, but I don't like the self-demeaning tone about his performance right out of the gate. Also, some generic advice and deadlines which sounds like trying to say something just to fit in. This could be understandable because we are mostly trying to generate some content at this point and get the discussion going, but this advice at this point so far away from the deadline doesn't do us much good at face value or as a conversation starter. Leaning suspicious from what I've seen so far. This post seems very wishy-washy, non-committal, and pointless. The first paragraph doesn't really say anything of substance (not that it's wrong per se, just doesn't really contribute anything meaningful to the game). The second paragraph is the same way. To me, he seems to end with exactly no read (and next to no thoughts) on Alakaslam. There's even "I like the poking about smiles, but it's phrased as a question so there is avoidance as well" which seems like aggressive-but-with-a-heavy-grain-of-salt that is easy to say without actually committing to it. "Posting within what I expected" and "not leaning one way or the other based on initial posts" doesn't end up meaning much at all. The other thing I want to note is all of the caveats and grain of salts and backtracking in sandroba's post. Not exactly sure how to phrase what I mean, but see here, in red: On December 10 2023 12:49 sandroba wrote: He's shying away from saying something, like making a read and then backing off from it. Or giving a reason to doubt what he just said, or placing a limiter on it. For such a small post, it's riddled with it. To me, this comes across as trying to be non-committal and playing the "safe game" while making it look like you are saying things and trying to figure things out.So far we have Alakaslam who I feel is posting within what I expected, not leaning one way or the other based on his initial posts. I like the poking about smiles being sus, but at the same time, it's phrased as a question so there is a bit of avoidance in there as well. Again, not very telling. For Trfel, some might say I'm nit-picking, but I don't like the self-demeaning tone about his performance right out of the gate. Also, some generic advice and deadlines which sounds like trying to say something just to fit in. This could be understandable because we are mostly trying to generate some content at this point and get the discussion going, but this advice at this point so far away from the deadline doesn't do us much good at face value or as a conversation starter. Leaning suspicious from what I've seen so far. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 13:23 sandroba wrote: I guess what I meant moreso was, why did you post that section? Since you seemed to end up with no read whatsoever, I'm just curious what the motivation/mindset/purpose was?I remember him being a bit wacky, careless, and somewhat random. Always found him hard to access in terms of alignment, but mostly remember he goes into more self-preservation mode and tones it down when mafia. Not sure how much that still applies, but I found his initial posts care-free, with a bit of prodding which I kinda liked, but done in a lighthearted way which could just again be his care-free nature | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 13:30 Alakaslam wrote: You're off of work now, right? I admit I was pretty surprised that you were so active and excited and then suddenly vanished.I hope not. But who knows? I am back for a time! | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 13:40 sandroba wrote: To clarify, did you mean for this specifically in response to my question about your thoughts on Alakaslam, or just in general?I'm trying to convey how confident I am about the things I'm saying, not pretending to be confident when I'm not. The point of my commentary is to share my thoughts, generate discussion and drive it toward people's alignments, which I find very useful to kick start the game. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 17:49 Palmar wrote: May I ask what I'm missing? I do lean towards Alakaslam being town but I am not sure where 100% confirmed town is coming from.I like slam and it annoys me that no one has yet said he’s 100% town confirmed. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 14:00 sandroba wrote: I guess I meant the conclusion, but fair enough.It's not "no read", it's a few things that point one way or the other. The point of sharing inconclusive thoughts is that it helps other players make sense of my alignment and also invites others to partake in the discussion. On December 10 2023 14:17 Alakaslam wrote: I just wasn't sure if you meant that you were agreeing or something else. Just wanted to check if I was missing something. Perhaps I was overly cautious but I didn't want to assume and be wrong.Hi Chezinu, I'm Trfel! Hope you have been well these past few years.That you are also right, what could it also mean? I am dense regarding my vagueness On December 10 2023 17:10 DarthPunk wrote: I'm not expecting some huge commitment or 100% certain reads or anything like that. But I think it's reasonable to expect something of substance. Sandroba failed to provide that. I understand people wanting to share thoughts, even if they aren't sure about the conclusions, but at the same time it's a game of mafia where the conclusions about people's alignments is ultimately what matters. My point about sandroba isn't that he didn't have any strong conclusions, it's the amount of thoughts he shared without any conclusions whatsoever and the way that he seemingly undermined any conclusion he could have made with doubt and take-backsies or whatever you want to call it. I don't think that everything needs to progress the game necessarily, or have a distinct purpose, it's that sandroba's post is the type of post that should have a purpose but just doesn't.Trfel, what kind of committed position would you reasonably expect sandroba to have at that point in the game? @Alakaslam, I'm getting lost in my quotes but this is in reference to what I asked earlier, where you said you agreed with my points about sandroba's post. On December 10 2023 17:45 Alakaslam wrote: This seems surprising. In multiple ways to be honest. First, why did you agree with my post if it's just an overreaction? Second, wouldn't an overreaction by both imply that both are town, but then you said it could be mafia/mafia? Am I misreading something here? The first question is what I wanted to get at though, since it seems that this is quite the shift in direction.Early game overreaction by both! They threw suspicion around kinda quick If I saw later it was M/M I would chuckle at the cojones and be unsurprised | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 19:31 Trfel wrote: Also I'm actually going to take back that Alakaslam town lean, the more I think about it the more incongruous his read progression on me/my posts has been. Pending his answer to my question. I get that Alakaslam is someone who posts what he is thinking a lot, but still, the way he follows DarthPunk's entrance/sentiment doesn't seem right to me.May I ask what I'm missing? I do lean towards Alakaslam being town but I am not sure where 100% confirmed town is coming from. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 19:56 marvellosity wrote: Thought about it, but in the end I don't have much of a read on him. I look forward to getting to interact with him a bit, I think his posts have given a reasonable picture of how he is approaching the game and I am interested to see how that develops.Why aren’t you just outright omgusing DP here Trfel? I know that’s what I’d be doing in your spot On December 10 2023 19:52 marvellosity wrote: I did attempt to engage in light conversation too, but no one seemed interested.Jeez, so srs | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 20:01 DarthPunk wrote: This is particularly interesting, didn't you literally call Sandroba's first post "meh"?That's funny, I feel pretty much the exact opposite. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 20:13 marvellosity wrote: I think DarthPunk is focusing more on the way I brought up suspicion about sandroba's post rather than just that I did it, but I could be wrong?If I came In the the thread first and had called out sandro’s post, I would think it was insane DP was calling me on it. Just sayin. On December 10 2023 20:14 DarthPunk wrote: If you go back to that quote I made with the red and take out the stuff in red then it would have had substantial conclusions.What kind of substance are you expecting? he literally posted the 10th post of the game? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 20:21 marvellosity wrote: I mean I don't like that DarthPunk is disagreeing with me, I don't know if that makes him mafia though. Townies disagree about things fairly often. I can still stand by my view of sandroba and not be sure about DarthPunk, no?Yes, he is, but I don’t understand why you’d legitimise the attack on what, I would assume, would be your legit read on sandro’s post. Now I don’t like any of you :/ On December 10 2023 20:24 DarthPunk wrote: Of sandroba's alignment? Not very. His opening post felt very suspicious, but it's just one post. That could just be the way he thinks and communicates his thoughts. I'm very interested to see how he follows it up.How confident would you say you were of sandroba's alignment when you wrote that post? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 20:22 marvellosity wrote: To be honest I was starting to worry I was going insane when no one else thought sandroba's post was worth discussing.This might just be a reflection on just how poor I thought sandro’s opening post was, though. Maybe. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 20:29 marvellosity wrote: I guess this just surprised me. The first part, that is.I dunno. I have a lot of respect for sandro, and time off or nay, I don’t think that’s what I expect from him. I know I don’t like Trfel’s responses either though, so I’m looking forward to the rest of the day 🍿 If sandroba is capable of great things, would being mafia cause the disparity between said great things and his play this game? And if not, what would? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 17:14 DarthPunk wrote: DarthPunk, care to explain this?The level 1 analysis of this is that a player is being aggressive early, not afraid to post and that would be good for Trfel. My initial feelings reading the post was that it felt forced, with a lot of generic statements to try and make Sandroba's post seeem worse than it was. I disagree that at the point of the game in which we are right now, that everything said needs to progress the game in a meaningful way. Sure, I would like that to be the case, but I also don't think that someone being non-committal is alignment indicative, in fact, someone being strongly committed early tends to make me lean mafia more than town, Town are trying to figure shit out at the start and are more curious than committed. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 21:16 DarthPunk wrote: I assume you are talking to me, I am having a bit of trouble understanding what you are actually getting at here though.It just seems to me that you came roaring out of the gate with a huge case, based on some nitpicking really early in the thread, and you end up going nowhere on anything which is the essence of what the case you wrote on Sandro in the first place. Now fair enough, sandroba hasn't been around so you haven't been able to pursue things further. But your level of aggression just didn't really match with what was going on in the thread at the time, which you kind of acknowledge at the start of said post. It's almost like an apology, like what were you waiting for? And now you are kind of backtracking, which also doesn't match with the way you lead out originally. it's all quite jarring to me. Yes, I think sandroba is suspicious. No, I wouldn't wager high stakes on it. He's one of the people I'm most interested in (along with Alakaslam and perhaps yourself and an off-chance of Vivax), but I'm not certain yet. I posted the way I did to try and figure out sandroba's alignment (and eventually everyone else's). Just because I'm not very confident yet doesn't mean that I can't figure things out and investigate and that sort of thing. I didn't bring any aggression, that's just me trying to ask questions and figure things out. If there is anything you'd like me to clear up please don't hesitate to ask, I'm just having a bit of trouble understanding this post though, it feels a bit nebulous to me. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 21:18 DarthPunk wrote: You said that being aggressive early is good, right? I assume good meaning town-indicative, as opposed to mafia-indicative.What exactly do you want me to explain about it? So why then is someone being strongly committed a mafia trait? Does that mean that if someone is aggressive early but not committed then that indicates town? That doesn't make much sense to me, why would someone be aggressive without commitment, in fact how is that even possible? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 21:27 DarthPunk wrote: Wait, what?ok. that's fine. Unvote I'm gonna need you to explain this one as well. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 21:40 DarthPunk wrote: So did you not think I was mafia?I applied pressure, you held up well to the pressure, I am less inclined to lynch you now. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 21:50 Vivax wrote: Mostly just this:Do you have a riddle for me Trfel? On December 10 2023 21:13 Vivax wrote: That last question to sandroba. If he just says, "I wrote it just to create a discussion about Trfel's and Alakaslam's alignments" then what have you gained from this whole post? I guess I'm confused, if that is an acceptable answer, then why give it to him as an option, like it invalidates the whole purpose of asking the question, no?Hello. We have Trfel and Slam entering the thread rather casually in my opinion. This approach by Sandro sticks out as overthinking and doesn't really seem like he's attempting to form some kind of real contact with them. I don't like the phrasing in parts either (bolded). 'Posting within what I expected' comes out of the blue as you should be expectation-free if you don't know his alignment. 'Self-demeaning tone' is something I don't spot, where is the part of his filter that suggests that? This is a piece of pseudo-information as it doesn't really help in reaching a conclusion on Slam either. Sandroba, are these posts your legitimate opinion or did you write them mostly with the intent of creating a discussion surrounding Trfels and Slams alignments? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 21:51 DarthPunk wrote: I see, that makes a little more sense. I was finding it suspicious that you seemed so sure of me being mafia (see here for example) and then call it a pressure and back off. Conveniently after people such as marvellosity and Vivax also show suspicion about sandroba's opening post and your push onto me didn't seem to get much support. It feels like you're giving up really easily, for being so certain, unless it was just a pressure, but it doesn't read like a pressure to me? Or maybe that's the point of the pressure.I think you could be, but I am less inclined to try and lynch you right now because: 1.) you are active and engaged in the thread, and 2.) transparent about your thought processes and reasoning Regardless though, the timing feels rather convenient. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 21:55 Vivax wrote: What does that acknowledgment provide?It gives him an option to acknowledge it was a terrible post without saying it was a terrible post. Also, any thoughts on Alakaslam? I know he plays a bit on impulse but I still find it very strange how his thoughts followed the thread sentiment so directly. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 02:48 Chezinu wrote: I eagerly await your report.Hello Mr. Truffles!! I haven't eaten a truffle in a few years. However, I have embarked on a journey to the Citdal to understand the underworlings of the sentinels. I'm in deep. Deep within beyond the convulsional layers form by the kernels. I will try and send you photos of my findings. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 01:54 Alakaslam wrote: I do remember your views changing, and that isn't necessarily a bad thing. It felt to me like your views were changing at a convenient time if you were mafia, but that may just be how you play (again, not a bad thing, just stuck out to me). I think I'll let you do your thing and come back to this at a future point.Always pliable, dunno if this is a change or not as we sense change least in ourselves. Meh I ought not mindd suspicion. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 03:14 raynpelikoneet wrote: Looking at it a third time I guess it's less than I thought. Mostly here, where Vivax jumped ahead to get the top quote from marvellosity. Otherwise, his catch-up is in chronological order and reasonably focused (if slightly uninspired imo). This strikes me as odd though, it makes it feel like he's already caught up with the thread while the surrounding posts (here and here suggest that he's posting as he's catching up. Not a huge thing, honestly his lack of thread presence at this point is probably more indicative. The Vivax I remember is a very strong player, and he just hasn't seemed invested so far.Can you explain this further, which posts are in wrong order? Side note, I feel similarly about DarthPunk though (lack of thread presence), since he dropped his push on me he seems content to not do too much. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 03:21 Holyflare wrote: How are you doing, Holyflare? Curious why you think raynpelikoneet is mafia?hi | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 03:23 raynpelikoneet wrote: Possibly, but the posts before and after are well before marvellosity's post. It just shows that most likely he was reading some more current posts while also catching up. That doesn't necessarily mean he's mafia, just strikes me as odd and I'm not quite sure what to make of it. Now that I reread it, I think it's not that helpful, and the point about his lack of involvement is much more meaningful.Isn't it just like he read marv's post, went back to check what DP said and made a conclusion of "i agree" of the post DP made (bolded part)? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
 | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 03:41 Chezinu wrote: What is the sentinel that you are referring to? Please enlighten me/refresh my memory?I work for a methlab? Here I was undercover working to understand the meaning of the sentinel, but never consider being one myself. Was I created as a replica of another? What if Vivax knows more about me than I as my memories were erased... if that was the case, I wouldn't be Chezinu but rather a sentinel Chez. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 10 2023 21:41 Vivax wrote: I believe this is the post in question.Palmar a bit too sure of himself in tone for my liking. Like he's got somebody lined up to be gifted a pair of shiny concrete boots, maybe a weak teammate under threat (which could be sandro). He's very conscious of the Trfel/Sandro dichotomy here but not as motivated to deliver much explanation of his own as he is to appear motivated to lynch into it. Raynpelikoneet, other than the above question though, can you help me understand why you are so confident Holyflare is mafia? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 04:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: To be honest I think you are nitpicking a bit. Even if we say you are right and Holyflare isn't, I'm not sure what that demonstrates. It means he messed up in reading the thread maybe, I don't think it makes him mafia. I think that the overall picture of Holyflare's play is much more important.I am gonna take a little break. My feet have been cold for like 3 days because of shitty socks, and i just want to go to sauna now that i can. Will be back in an hour. If anyone would like to have an opinion on Holyflare, and especially on what i said on him, i would appreciate. Holyflare, thoughts on DarthPunk? I get that it's night in Australia but he still feels a bit off to me. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 05:25 Chezinu wrote: But Chezinu, what color are you?Dear Mafias, You do not have to follow the path of redness though your name is stained with red. You can live without eliminating the green and blue. You can resist the urge to kill!! It is not too late for a blue priest to make you green!! Just repent openly and confess to the priest and He will remove your redness. You could be green or even perhaps blue!! | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 05:03 Vivax wrote: I don't know, I am not that confident in anyone. My best guesses would be you, DarthPunk, Koshi, and sandroba (not in any particular order).Interesting position in that he suspects you. Who would you vote right now? And why didn't you vote? @Holyflare, I have not made a reads list. The above people are the ones I'm most interested in currently though. @Chezinu, what happened to the house of brown? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 05:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: Sorry, I am not sure what you mean? Who are we talking about?Are you comfortable on his position that "Interesting position in that he suspects you.", Trfel? Why do you just leave it like that? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 06:16 DarthPunk wrote: Two things. First is that after you unvoted me you seemed content to have no strong suspicion or push or thread presence, though I may be underestimating the impact of it being nighttime in Australia. Second thing is that some of your reasoning really doesn't line up. For example, what raynpelikoneet mentioned, your reason to townread sandroba being that he was suspicious of marvellosity. He didn't engage marvellosity or push for his lynch, he's wanting to lynch Vivax, it's easy to say "this person is mafia" and not back it up or push it at all.Trfel can you explain why I am suspicious to you very briefly. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 06:08 DarthPunk wrote: Here @DarthPunkI also tend to think that with the pressure that Sandro has been under picking a fight with marv seems like a terrible play as mafia, so it feels genuine to me. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 05:03 Vivax wrote: Oh you mean this? I think it's fine that Vivax thought DarthPunk being suspicious of me was interesting. I think it's less fine that Vivax dodged my question and hasn't been very invested in this game. But I don't think I would lynch him before Koshi.Interesting position in that he suspects you. Who would you vote right now? And why didn't you vote? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 06:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: I never said I thought Holyflare was town (or mafia for that matter), I just agreed with that one point. Can I not agree with something that someone said without knowing their alignment?If it's not a townread then what is it??Holyflare is not townie in any way, in any point of his game. He might be misguided as fuck but never ever has he done anything townie. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 06:40 DarthPunk wrote: I don't want to lynch you for what you said about sandroba's posts. Why are you quoting things that aren't my reasoning and calling it my reasoning? And it's not that you stopped posting during the night, it's the way you left with seemingly no direction and how content you felt to do so. Yes, it can be explained (to some extent) by being asleep, but the timing seems rather suspect as well due to making a push, backing off when it seems clear to not be working, and then leaving since you've "done something" already.Wait wtF?!? I am your second biggest lynch candidate because: 1.) I stopped posting for 6 hours in the middle of the night and 2.) for saying pretty much exactly what you are saying about sandroba's recent posts??? That doesn't make any fucking sense. Are you for real right now? ##vote: Trfel | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 05:42 DarthPunk wrote: Sandroba also looks good to me when he posts, so again, don't understand the scum reads on him. On December 11 2023 06:03 DarthPunk wrote: Basically because in isolation his posts resonate with my own thinking in some way. I do think you had one of the best reasons to call him mafia though, which I hadn't read when I made that post. But I still don't think I would lynch him at this point. On December 11 2023 06:08 DarthPunk wrote: Like I agree with the observations in this post, while I disagree with the conclusion. It makes me feel like he is reading the thread closely and thinking about what things mean, I think that is hard to fake as mafia. I also tend to think that with the pressure that Sandro has been under picking a fight with marv seems like a terrible play as mafia, so it feels genuine to me. On December 11 2023 06:21 DarthPunk wrote: To me, these posts say that you think sandroba is town. Not like 100% bet your life on it certainty or anything, but if you had to guess you'd say he's town. So, townread. You're defending him, bringing up reasons why he is town, saying his play doesn't make sense as mafia. What else am I supposed to think? If this isn't a townread then what is?I mean I understand that, but I also think I could see it from Sandro's perspective, I don't see how making this accusation actually does anything positive for Sandro's agenda if he is mafia. I also tend to think that townies will make really dumb reads a lot, but as long as I feel like I can understand the reasons for the read in some way, it's fine. With his marv read the observations are correct to me, I just think the conclusion is wrong because marv tends to be more of a jerk (in the nicest possible way) as town and more conciliatory as mafia. But I don't expect Sandro to have that information or arrive at that conclusion based on how long he has been away. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 06:46 DarthPunk wrote: It's literally not my reason, are you reading my posts at all?So explain to me Trfel, why us agreeing on sandro's recent posts is one of the top 2 reasons you think I am mafia. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 06:36 Trfel wrote: Here, I'll quote it again.Here @DarthPunk | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 06:58 DarthPunk wrote: 1 - Okay, I'll leave this post:Quoting it again doesn't magically make it worthwhile. 1.)I didn't call sandro town. If I think someone is town I will say they are town. 2.) You said basically the same thing about sandro as me regarding his posting revealing his mindset. 3.) I left the thread in the middle of the night. Therefore I am mafia. On December 11 2023 06:49 Trfel wrote: to stand for itself. If people choose to believe that you don't think sandroba is town and yet you made these posts, then whatever.To me, these posts say that you think sandroba is town. Not like 100% bet your life on it certainty or anything, but if you had to guess you'd say he's town. So, townread. You're defending him, bringing up reasons why he is town, saying his play doesn't make sense as mafia. What else am I supposed to think? If this isn't a townread then what is? 2 - So? I don't care. That's not why you are mafia. You can agree with me on something and still be mafia. 3 - We discussed this. Please stop being intentionally obtuse. I don't care if you think I am mafia, but the constant badgering with questions, ignoring the answers, and then misrepresenting me is getting really annoying really quick. Gotta head out for a bit, going to clear my head. Yeesh. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 07:13 Chezinu wrote: That's quite the honor, I can do my best, but I don't know if I am worthy.Mr. truffles responded when I wrote a letter to the Mafias and then said what is wrong with being brown, meaning he doesn't want to go full green. So either blue or red, but I R red/blue blind. Mr. Truffle, will you play the brown? Somewhere along the lines of sandroba or Vivax or maybe Koshi seems reasonable. I see what marvellosity is saying about Koshi though, it's really just a policy lynch, which isn't the worst, but is far from the best. Koshi isn't even playing that poorly, I know he's capable of much more and that's very disappointing to me, but he is at least sharing a small number of somewhat relevant thoughts (quality aside). @Koshi: On December 10 2023 23:59 Koshi wrote: Why are you ready to be lynched/why do you want to be lynched?Ready to be lynched. I am so happy. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 13:41 DarthPunk wrote: I'm asleep.Trfel are you around? Can you give me your updated reads now you are voting vivax I think Vivax is the best chance at mafia. His play is very underwhelming and uninspired, in contrast to his town play where he is capable of being a very strong player. He also seems to not care about his relatively poor performance/lack of investmemt. Sandroba and Koshi might be worth considering but I think I like lynching Vivax more by a decent margin. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 16:59 Koshi wrote: Thank you for answering, even though I heavily disagree with that perspective.1) My town game is too stereotypical. So people are calling me town D1. I am getting shot N1. My mafia game suffers because I am unable to produce the same as mafia. I am not capable to up my mafia game. But I am very capable to downgrade my townplay. So I need to get lynched a bunch of times so that my future mafia teams have a chance. 2) Pretty sure I am not the only one who should try to hide his alignment better. Even Slam is being tip top town this game. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 17:17 DarthPunk wrote: I'm taking a break from reading you since it wasn't being very productive. Will re-evaluate at some point.For the record trfel what is your read on me right now, you seem to have dropped it entirely. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 22:16 Vivax wrote: It's not me you have to tell that to. It's a shit wagon on the wrong player This is where you can already start judging who jumps on it. Palmar is probably town in this case. It's the bottom feeders latching to it that are more interesting. On December 11 2023 23:22 Vivax wrote: Vivax, what gives?##Vote: Palmar First vote on mafia probably. All combinations have Sandro in them though. DP + Trfel + Sandro for the more tinfoily world and Palmar + DMB + Sandro for the actual safe scumplay because there's nothing in Palmar's filter not making me thing that his read on Sandro is a bus at best and fake on town at worst. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 12 2023 00:53 Vivax wrote: So you're voting for Palmar but you don't even think he is mafia?In this dynamic, the wagon initiator is more frequently town in my experience. I banished that thought cause I think Sandro is inifinitely more scummy and Palmar at this point is just a malevolent push. Fair enough, I suppose. Do we still do baby seals around here? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 12 2023 01:01 Vivax wrote: I've read your filter and I've read it again, I'm literally not seeing why you changed your mind to think Palmar is mafia besides the association with sandroba?I think he is mafia. I just explained to you why my opinion had a change. That doesn't make anyone mafia. I'm not necessarily opposed to other lynches but you're really not giving me much of a reason. You're scumreading sandroba seemingly most of all, marvellosity is on sandroba, much of the game is on sandroba, by playing the game a bit we both know you could prove your (assumed) towniness and not only keep going but get a favorable lynch. Your lack of will to even do that much is deeply incriminating. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Can you summarize why I/we should be lynching sandroba (or whoever you want, really)? If you want to quote previous posts that explain it that's fine, I just can't really look on my own for a little. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 12 2023 18:45 DarthPunk wrote: It's also like sandroba wasn't doing much so there was no new information to share or discuss?I wonder if trfel would open with a bus on his own teammate. That whole thing was really weird and forced. And then it kind of disappeared. Like for how aggro trfel was at the start on sandro, he dropped that whole thing and then he dropped the stuff with me too. It’s almost like all the proactivity at the start ended up with nothing. And at the end he just flipped onto vivax. On December 12 2023 23:00 raynpelikoneet wrote: I didn't think that was a reason for Vivax being mafia. It was just something weird that I noticed and didn't know what to make of it. (I also don't think it makes Holyflare or anyone else mafia, Holyflare's case is different since he openly said he wasn't reading closely anyway though)So i see both Trfel and sandroba have entered the thread after i left, both of them are calling Vivax mafia because Vivax is not reading the thread in correct order, but neither of them recognizes the fact that Holyflare did the exact same thing (or rather voted for someone, said he didn't didn't read up to point of a certain post before voting, but still had read posts after that point). Especially for someone who thinks Vivax is mafia because Vivax quoted posts in wrong order, HF should be like double mafia. On December 13 2023 12:10 Chezinu wrote: Sorry, I'm not sure what you are asking about here?Mr. truffles, why!?!?!? On December 13 2023 20:19 marvellosity wrote: Maybe my reasoning was flawed. I realize that people have to sleep, it just felt like a convenient time to do so. To me there's a standard pattern of:Honestly Trfel, this is the 3rd time I counted that you have brought up DP being afk while asleep. I don’t understand why you’re expecting him to completely flesh out a new view on the game after he has unvoted you, less than 24h into the game? Can you explain? Push something -> back off But then what do you do when you back off? Town wants to figure out the game, so they need to find something else. Mafia just did a bunch of work, so they look busy, so they don't need to do anything. I quite likely overestimated this heavily, considering it being night in Australia and fairly early day 1. On December 13 2023 20:24 marvellosity wrote: I mean Vivax didn't respond, or do anything until much later when I was no longer around. I don't know what more I was supposed to do, I wanted to play but Vivax didn't give me anything to work with and I didn't see much of a reason to view him as town at the time.Really disappointing that Trfel posted this then afked. Caught up now. Need to do a TON of rereading but my inclinations are that Chezinu is mafia, sandroba is maybe town, and I really need to look at die_meatbaby now that she (?) has actually posted some things. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
##vote Chezinu The house of brown has found it time to end your mafia-ness. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 02:55 Holyflare wrote: I mean I have other thoughts but they don't really go anywhere.Are these really your only current thoughts? Nothing about anyone that's talking? I really do think that marvellosity is town, I had thought that raynpelikoneet was maybe town but I can't remember much of what he has done so I don't think he is town anymore. Palmar I think is town. Koshi and Alakaslam I think are town. Sandroba I truly think is town. I realize I have too many townreads, I have some work to do to figure it out but there are reasons for them all being town. Marvellosity: feels very present and engaging while having less drive/presence than the marvellosity of old. But I don't think the latter part of that sentence makes him mafia. I generally like the places he is choosing to engage and think it makes sense for him. I don't have a great explanation but it feels like town to me. Palmar: The involvement and directness and aggressiveness all indicate town to me. I feel like when Palmar is this heavily involved early on he is very likely to be town. I remember one game this was false, I think, but I think I'm willing to bet on it for now at least. Koshi: His reads make sense and it seems like he is critically thinking about the game, even if he is doing so in a painfully annoying way. Alakaslam: high involvement, good thoughts and presence. If he is mafia it would be an absolutely outstanding performance, I can't entirely put it past him since I know he loves playing as mafia but if he isn't town this game I don't know how I'd ever townread him again. sandroba: read him as a defensive waffle and he's town. I like his involvement as of late, even as the thread sentiment has soured against him he's stayed involved and hasn't given up. I think this is a strong town indicator. I actually like his thoughts, they're unique and show that he's thinking, even if I don't always (or even often) agree with the sentiments and conclusions. Holyflare and raynpelikoneet I don't know, I really think Chezinu is mafia and needs to go. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 03:05 Holyflare wrote: I have one, take it or leave it.##vote trfel Figure out some scum reads | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 03:13 Holyflare wrote: I don't have any thoughts on them yet. I kinda just ignored everything they said in preparation for reading their filter later. It's almost later.I already have that read and I'd like some more. What do you think of DMB? You make no mention of them in the entirety of your list. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 03:16 Trfel wrote: So apparently die_meatbaby's filter doesn't take very long to read.I don't have any thoughts on them yet. I kinda just ignored everything they said in preparation for reading their filter later. It's almost later. I'd be okay lynching them too, they are on Chezinu level. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 03:18 Holyflare wrote: I thought raynpelikoneet was town but I honestly forget why. Now I kinda think he's mafia but I need to reread him (next on the list), it irks me since I think I had a reason to townread him and forgot it though.Gut read on me or rayn? I always think you're town. This game is no exception. Sometimes you end up being mafia. It's sad but I have no idea how to change this. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 03:38 marvellosity wrote: People never think what I am thinking That’s what smart players do, though. They make good points and look like they are thinking about the game. But somehow they don’t line up with how you’re thinking… In all seriousness though, if you guys lynch sandroba then I hope I am wrong. But I'm just not seeing it, so unless something dramatically changes then you won't have my vote. Why not Chezinu or die_meatbaby? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Lots of posts but minimal presence. Doesn't feel like he is pushing much here compared to how active he has been. Two exceptions: his "catch" on Holyflare not reading (more on this later) and his scumreading Palmar. Look at the way he scumreads Palmar, he isn't very committed to it or upset that no one is listening, he feels largely content to just say "Palmar could be mafia" and then move on with life. This isn't how I am used to raynpelikoneet playing as town, nor is it town motivated. His "catch" on Holyflare. He's so stubborn about this, but town!raynpelikoneet that I'm used to is more willing to try and see things from other people's perspectives, even on "logic" disagreements. Don't misunderstand, he's still super stubborn, but he won't hold onto things literally forever anymore. The fact that he hasn't let it go, but simultaneously isn't passionately driving it in everyone's face and calling for Holyflare's lynch seems very off. I don't understand how this in-between world exists for town raynpelikoneet. Then there are little things that probably don't mean much. Part of me wants to think that saying "do you have a vig" to die_meatbaby is a slip but I also don't really believe in slips. His post-d1 lynch apology to Vivax feels more told-you-so than actually apologetic, given that he was scumreading and voting for Vivax before the lynch, and the way it comes off feels wrong. But the main two points are above. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Chezinu/die_meatbaby/raynpelikoneet I think are more likely still, but yeah. Uneasy feelings. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm fairly happy with Chezinu/die_meatbaby/raynpelikoneet/maybe Koshi though. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
If sandroba is mafia then he masoned with Palmar (or had Palmar mason with him but whatever) to try and survive. Surprised he would be so stubborn in this case. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 22:12 marvellosity wrote: That's fair, I guess I was reading sandroba's stubbornness in contrast to Palmar's stubbornness and it didn't feel too out of place then but I can see that.Not so much resistant as apparently not capable It’s harder to escape the narrative you’ve written for yourself as mafia. As town you’re a lot freer with your thoughts as nothing is predetermined | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 11 2023 12:36 sandroba wrote: This post really does come out of nowhere right after the Vivax wagon is building momentum, doesn't it. I think it's plausible town without the context but the context looks pretty bad, especially given how old the post sandroba is referencing is. Maybe I'm just hard scumsiding I feel like this post sounds very unnatural, and also has some confusion about things that were already clarified in the thread at the point this post was made. The 'Posting within what I expected' part was asked by Trfel and I did clarify what I meant. 'Self-demeaning tone about his performance' is something very obvious if you read the post if you read the post I was talking about which he mentions his chances of finding mafia. The reasoning to me sound extremely contrieved, trying to blend in with thread sentiment while appearing to be putting in an effort.  | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 22:53 Palmar wrote: That's not something that is in my control? I am truly confused, I can say what I say but it's up to others if they believe it or not?Show me where you've actually had an impact on town sentiment. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 12 2023 00:19 sandroba wrote: So he is questioning his townread of me (which soon becomes a scumread) due to how I voted for Vivax. But the post after, he appears to be townreading Palmar due to Palmar voting for Vivax, since he thinks Vivax is mafia? If he is that certain about Vivax being mafia why does he talk about what town Vivax should do in reference to me being mafia? I get that Palmar was the one with the big "case" on Vivax but it doesn't feel quite right.Trfel I had been leaning town from the burst of engagement, but this post really set off some alarms for me. Vivax mentioned that he was weary from the bottom feeders on his wagon, and if I was town Vivax I would definitely be all over this post in particular. The wording, tone and reasoning on this post don't seem to match the rest of his filter. Seems like a formal way to justify a vote, looks like it's fabricated and a chore. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 23:06 Palmar wrote: With all due respect, that hasn't been my experience. And while you've played as much mafia as anyone, I've played a decent amount myself.This is not true. A good townie who actually believes his ideas will push for his ideas to be recognized. Aimless commentary that no one listens to is what mafia really, really wants. Just surprised you see it so differently from me. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 01:56 sandroba wrote: Sandroba, can I ask what your reasoning was at this time? About 20 hours ago or so? Or really just post Day 1 flip.I'm not rulling off palmar as mafia, but I don't think it's worth considering for now | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 23:25 sandroba wrote: Your initial townread of Palmar was due to thinking Vivax was mafia, correct? Since Palmar was the main person pushing Vivax, it makes sense that if Vivax is mafia, Palmar is town.Can you rephrase the question, don't know what exactly you are asking based on the post you are quoting I am wondering why you kept thinking Palmar is town after Vivax flipped town? I know you recently flipped to scumread him but there was quite a delay between those events. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 23:31 Palmar wrote: While I think raynpelikoneet is pretty suspicious, it looks like something came up IRL for him, he's been away for quite a while. I wouldn't consider that alignment indicative.pretty scummy of rayn to not have a vote down. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 23:32 Palmar wrote: Isn't that the definition of an association read? Specifically an unflipped association read (which then becomes flipped)?This is not how the game works. If sandroba believed I was town for pushing Vivax because he agreed, why would me being wrong change his mind? By that logic he should scumread himself for also having been wrong. It's one thing if he said that the way you were pushing Vivax was towny. As far as I could tell, he said that he thought you were towny because you were pushing Vivax and Vivax was very likely mafia. That's a key difference. But yes, I do think that if you are townreading someone because you think they are right and they end up being wrong, you shouldn't townread them for that anymore. Obviously that doesn't apply to oneself because you don't need to have a read on oneself. Very confused. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 23:37 Palmar wrote: I agree that association reads are generally poor but I don't think that is relevant to the line of questioning?yeah but all the people who like association reads are terrible at mafia. Thanks for answering, sandroba. I want to check what you are saying about the thread sentiment being against Vivax before Palmar started pushing him. That would actually be rather interesting. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 23:39 Trfel wrote: Looked into this, seemed to be unclear though. No one voted for Vivax or really pushed him before Palmar did, but several people had expressed suspicions of him. That's enough for mafia to capitalize on, but still took work from Palmar to shift the thread sentiment and make the Vivax lynch actually happen.I agree that association reads are generally poor but I don't think that is relevant to the line of questioning? Thanks for answering, sandroba. I want to check what you are saying about the thread sentiment being against Vivax before Palmar started pushing him. That would actually be rather interesting. Will have to think more about this. I'm not used to Palmar putting in all that much effort as mafia but I know he is capable when he tries. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 23:54 Palmar wrote: Fair enough, albeit self meta. I hate that my reasons to townread you are mostly meta/effort related, not that you are playing poorly, just that I haven't noticed much alignment indicative otherwise. The meta/effort read says strongly town though I think. But those can always be broken.I often put effort into day 1 as mafia. What I don't do is agonize over the lynch on day 2 when I'm not even on the menu. I'm not sure if I am ready to lynch Palmar today no matter what, unrelatedly I do kinda still think he is town, his interactions with marvellosity feel genuine, he does things that make sense, etc. But it's worth looking into for sure. Just I think there are better lynches for today by a huge margin. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2023 23:54 Palmar wrote: Is this what agonizing over the lynch looks like for Palmar though? He's discussing things but constantly seems set on lynching sandroba?I often put effort into day 1 as mafia. What I don't do is agonize over the lynch on day 2 when I'm not even on the menu. Genuine question. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 15 2023 00:16 marvellosity wrote: If you have to lynch Chezinu sooner or later anyway, does the information gained matter? Like sure you maybe have more info for day 3 LYLO but you lynch Chezinu anyway so did it get you anywhere? Or are you saying you POE Chezinu's alignment?94 pages of game and our best d2 lynch is Chez? I just don’t buy it. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 15 2023 01:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: Huh, I could have sworn you were voting for Vivax before switching to sandroba. You're right though, my bad.Why are people, name Trfel and Koshi saying i have voted for Vivax or even scumread him? On page 84 Trfel has just read my filter apparently, and is claiming i hvae voted for Vivax. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 15 2023 02:11 raynpelikoneet wrote: I guess it's implied that why would he do that after asking to mason with Palmar. My thinking is that if you want to play that game, you don't mason with Palmar. If you mason with Palmar, you want to talk as much as possible to try and convince him you are town.If you are town it gives the least amount of information out. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 15 2023 03:44 marvellosity wrote: Yikes, sorry to hear that Just had doors smashed in and watched someone absolutely beat the shit out of someone outside our window. Totally horrific tbh. May or may not play anymore tonight as a result. Don’t really know what rayn is doing. Hope things can get figured out okay. That sounds awful. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 15 2023 04:11 marvellosity wrote: No need to apologize, that sounds very scary. Take care of yourself please. Take whatever time you need, it's just a game.Yeah we live in a block of 6 flats and the front door to the building got smashed in. We called the police and then we watched this dude jump another dude and punch the shit out of him like 8 times. Really seriously injured. Sorry to dump on the thread but it’s just an outlet that’s here | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I don't like how quickly and easily everyone got suspicious of raynpelikoneet. That makes me much more hesitant to think he is mafia, I think there was a time when literally everyone seemed okay lynching him. Some of his recent posts felt towny as well. To be honest I am having a bit of trouble understanding what die_meatbaby says sometimes, I need to read her filter again and try and get a better idea of what is going on there. Someone did a weird read switch where they called someone mafia and then soon after said that two other people were mafia and if they said what changed about the first person I didn't see it at all. I forget who did that but if that happened as I read it, it is quite suspicious. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
marvellosity die_meatbaby raypelikoneet Palmar Alakaslam sandroba Holyflare + Show Spoiler [night kill analysis] + Honestly I really don't understand the Koshi kill. I thought Koshi was playing well and I don't think it's bad by any means, but in my interpretation of the situation that kill was marvellosity's 100% of the time, since he has been so involved and influential, and an involved marvellosity is as big of a threat as anyone. I have a hard time seeing marvellosity being mafia this game, if he is though this kill is a major indicator as to why. Part of me wonders if it really could be marvellosity + Palmar as mafia, it's not really what it looks like to me right now but it'd be worth looking into. I could see one reason for keeping town!marvellosity alive and killing Koshi instead is if Palmar is mafia (or if mafia wanted to try and incriminate Palmar, but this is less likely). Koshi was coming down on Palmar pretty hard towards end of night, and marvellosity has been about as big of a Palmar supporter as there is. This suggests to me that at least one of marvellosity and Palmar is mafia. I don't have any other reasons to support this, at least not yet, this is just night kill analysis. But I think it's worth keeping in mind. I'm not going to do seven filter dives right now, that sounds like quite a pain. So time to make some assumptions. Assumption 1: marvellosity is town. I think this is just a necessary assumption (for now) for the sake of processing what's going on and understanding the game. His play also feels very towny to me. I don't believe I have ever played with mafia!marvellosity who actually played the game, from what I've heard it was pretty legendary, so that casts bits of doubt, but I'm still going to go with it for now, I think it makes the most sense. Assumption 2: Holyflare is town. I just can't read this guy for the life of me, there have been multiple times in the past I've literally thought he was confirmed town and he ended up being mafia. So I'm just going to hope he is town, I don't know what else to do. Assumption 3: sandroba is town. This one's a bit tougher to make, I still see a lot of the early points against sandroba, and we still have a lot of disagreeing reads/contradicting thoughts. His play and involvement and investment have been continuing to rise though. If he is mafia he's been really growing in confidence lately, which is impressive given the start. The overall investment feels towny, and it does seem like he is critically thinking about the game. I liked his defense throughout day 2, the stubbornness and refusal to give up feels very very towny. And his continued increased presence since then feels hard to fake as mafia (though I don't know sandroba very well so maybe this is not worth considering). I definitely read sandroba as town, I should reread his filter/reevaluate this at some point but for now it will be an assumption. Adding later, I suppose Chezinu flipping mafia probably makes sandroba look worse due to Chezinu's day 1 vote, I don't think this is enough to change this assumption at this time though. Assumption 4: Alakaslam is town. I'm hesitant about this as well since I have a hard time telling his town and mafia games apart. He plays by feels and that makes it really hard since I normally read people based on how their reads change over time due to the information that happened. Since town!Alakaslam can see something happen once and think one thing, and then see someone post about it later and think a different thing about the initial event, that really messes with my ability to read him. Everyone says he is town, and hopefully that's good enough, I like his involvement and open-feeling play, but I think he is very scary as mafia and I could see him being mafia here. So he goes in the same category as sandroba, should reevaluate but for now, town. Leaves die_meatbaby, Palmar, and raynpelikoneet. Really makes me think I need to re-evaluate sandroba and Alakaslam sooner rather than later, I'll try to get to it before the end of the day. die_meatbaby Really thought she could be mafia earlier. Now I'm not so sure, some moments have felt very genuine. As I said before, I've had somewhat of a hard time understanding what she is saying at points, so I'll do my best. + Show Spoiler [analysis] + On December 11 2023 10:35 die_meatbaby wrote: (emphasis mine)So really think we just found 2 of 3 with this useless 30 pages of nothingness? Koshi + T +3rd person who trys to avoid the conversation between them and try to win alone most likely you/vivax or rayn It would never be this easy. But yes vivax filter is looking bad. To me, this reads like she is saying Koshi is mafia. Her only previous post on Koshi is here: On December 11 2023 10:10 die_meatbaby wrote: which doesn't sound very convinced. Not sure where such a confident scumread of Vivax comes from here?sorry getting active now. The thing is i don´t like how Koshi is just like 100% sure that Trfel is Town and just almost every post from him is like trying to save him. But also if Koshi is mafia he wouldn´t be that activ. On December 11 2023 10:39 die_meatbaby wrote: Too scummy to be scum feels like a very poor reason to doubt. But the notion of power roles playing differently is corroborated later. Not sure what to think.The problem is he looks so fucking scummy right now but i am not sure if i miss a blue point here. Defently not so green, but not worth a vote (for now) On December 11 2023 10:54 die_meatbaby wrote: Then there's the questions about Palmar, this is the second time she brings this up. Part of it feels like an easy mafia play, bring up something suspicious but give a way to back out of it. Of course, I would never be guilty of anything like that Why is Palmar so confident about his opinion on who is scum. It´s D1 and this dude things he can just read everybody and knows thats scum. Is he like god of this game or why i nobody suspect about his conidence here? Very interested how she follows up when Palmar's play is discussed later though, since she seems quite interested in Palmar.On December 11 2023 11:26 die_meatbaby wrote: This wasn't the impression I got about her view on Palmar earlier but I don't think it's particularly scummy either so idk?Just to make this clear my decision to vote for Vivax is based on my own analysis and not because your ego convinced me to vote who ever you think is scum. And yes your filter looks good but you still not town for me and I will read and analysis every post you will make until you lose a bit of this self believing god player stuff here. Then, probably most importantly, the vote for Vivax (yes, I pulled the previous Palmar quote ahead of this, thought it made sense even though it's technically not chronological). On December 11 2023 11:16 die_meatbaby wrote: Okey what kind of wagon are you trying to build here. Like i really really try to see it but now you making my opinion on you even worse #vote vivax On December 11 2023 11:26 die_meatbaby wrote: So I literally don't know why she thinks Vivax is mafia? There hasn't been a single reason given. That sends all kinds of alarm bells to me.Just to make this clear my decision to vote for Vivax is based on my own analysis and not because your ego convinced me to vote who ever you think is scum. And yes your filter looks good but you still not town for me and I will read and analysis every post you will make until you lose a bit of this self believing god player stuff here. On December 11 2023 11:48 Grackaroni wrote: This is the vote count after die_meatbaby's vote. I know others had expressed interest in lynching Vivax as well, sandroba and I voted for Vivax in the next few hours. Basically saying that the momentum is going towards Vivax's lynch, but it's not secured yet.Day One Vote Count Vivax (3): Palmar, DarthPunk, die_meatbaby Sandroba (1): Trfel (1): Koshi (1): Holyflare, marvellosity (1): Koshi Holyflare (1): raynpelikoneet raynpelikoneet (0): Not Voting (4):Chezinu, Sandroba, Trfel, Vivax With 3 votes, Vivax is currently set to be lynched! The deadline is Tuesday, Dec 12 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in This is the first thing that really sticks out for me about die_meatbaby's filter. In my opinion, her vote on Vivax looks really bad. There is zero explanation and zero push, even when she votes her "explanation" is more defensive and doesn't seem to be encouraging anyone to want to lynch Vivax either. Even saying she has her own reasons but not sharing said reasons seems suspicious as all heck to me. Then she is gone for about 24 hours and comes back with 2 hours to go before the lynch. On December 12 2023 10:08 die_meatbaby wrote: She says she would vote for me or sandroba but still talks about Palmar. No reasons given why sandroba or I are suspicious.Tbh this last 3-4 posts from Vivax looks like a Townie who trys to stay alive, but just the rest from his Filter looks still worse then anyone else here. Also We are 9 vs 3 One miss lynch+ the night kill will leave us 6 vs 3. I really hope we don't fuck up with the lynch. On December 12 2023 12:30 die_meatbaby wrote: Says Chezinu looks suspicious post-Vivax flip, will see if there is followup. Another 24 hour or so break.It really looks bad, I need to sleep now On December 13 2023 22:29 die_meatbaby wrote: Here she kinda goes into why she wanted to lynch Vivax. The Vivax I remember can play a pretty good mafia game, doing things besides trolling, but maybe that hasn't been true in die_meatbaby's experience? Either way, it feels off to say that Vivax was mafia due to trolling because I don't think he was trolling, I wouldn't characterize his play that way at all.Vivax was excited to play again and special because of Palmar. I will not try to lynch my happy amore when Sandro and Palmar lookd suspicious as well in my eyes. Before the game started V said to me when Palmar is Mafia, Town is fucked. Why should I be suspicious about Palmar when I already know he is one of the strongest player here. Newbie Mafia vs Palmar would be the stupiest thing what a mafia me could do. Also as I never played as mafia a game am already bored as Town and because of work and this why I may was not around or activ as you used to see me in a game here. I voted on Vivax because I felt that this was scum. He is most likly a troll poster when he is red. I thought he makes here troll wagons and just look on his filter page 1-5 this looks all just scummy. I think I don´t have to quote any post from him because, if you see this as Town you are scum. But at the point the lnych comes near and he was working, I could see the stress full posts not trying to get lynched at work, but in a Townie way. Also i was with Dp the first who changed vote and tried to change the lynch. When I am rolling Town every fucking game then I want to win as Town. I have to go to work now. I will try to post more, and i will post a Town/Mafia List after work On December 14 2023 22:31 die_meatbaby wrote: Meta dives, to be honest I have no idea what to make of this post. I don't know what she thinks about Palmar after reading the meta. She seems to be scumreading me instead of sandroba at this point, which is reasonable enough given her perspective, again just going to see how she follows it up. Still suspicious of Chezinu as well. Palmar seems like her top scumread from the possible scumteams post earlier, #1680.Palmar: If you look on his older games like SNMMII, Personality, Liar Game Mini Mafia he is an insane mafia player (don´t want to push your ego more, but I have to say it.) You don´t change you play style like other players does and this mabye scares me to just not see it, but we have to think of you as mafia as well. In Liar Game Mini Mafia you also lead Town to Vote on Townies and won as Mafia (yeah I know you got lynched but still the first 4 Days was amazing fucking game. When Koshi is Mafia he is lazy and tired of beeing Mafia. He is here also bit lazy here but not lazy enough for beeing Mafia (atm) Also by every other player you can see slightly difference how they play as Mafia and how the play as Town. You pushing Town to vote on Vivax makes you the townleader who direction Towns but also makes you insane mafia, because you already did that stuff. You manged in LGMM to lead the town to vote a weak townie out D1 everbody voted VE out and I know to get VE wagon is not hard at all just smart and an asshole move btw, because VE is always a easy lynch (We all know that) I know over years you change normaly, but you do not. When you look at Koshi playing Mafia years ago he was activ and agressvily playing, now he just don´t want to be mafia and is lazy, don´t post much and just go on a randon voting train from town. Thats why I think Koshi is Town atm. He is more activ here than he would as Mafia Sandro: You looks less scum to me since I checked you profile as well. You are weak Mafia or it appears to me like this. But what I can say is that you ask so many question as Town. Like in every Town game what I could find you just asked everybody question over question and I don´t feel like this insane question routine you had is happening here. Maybe you changed. But I have to read more from your old games as soon as I find time for it. Trfl (worst gamername btw) Noir Mini Mafia is the best game to see how you play as Town, because you show emotions about voting a Town a you take way more pressure on your main mafia thought. You are a very emotional townie and easy to read as Town as well. In this game it seems you don´t take afford to find scum and just jump on an vote wagon from other people. I will quote you later and show you what i mean. But for now i have time problems for the next hours i try to post more and more specif as well. On December 15 2023 09:10 die_meatbaby wrote: Ends up voting for Chezinu instead of Palmar when Palmar was seemingly her biggest focus. This is the eighth (and final) vote on Chezinu.Yeah as Mafia I would be more active I am just bored already to get all the time same role and not playing finaly mafia. You, Marv and Dp knew how excited I was about playing mafia when we had to cancel the game after few hours because of stupid shit what happend. But I would prefer that you call me mafia instead of bad town. I just didn't had so much time play. Will get more time at the weekend, to play. Anyway Chez was around when Vivax already made the Townisch posts and didn't chance to. Never got a reason why he still was at Vivax not on Sandro. I am on the Chez lynch because if he his scum then there is a reason why he is not voting on sandro even though Vivax looked at the end so fucking more town than most of the players here and definitely more townisch then sandro. Chez posted 1 and a half our before lynch and don't tell you were not here at the lynch time when you active this shortly before lynch and in Europe it was 4 am but in America a good/normal time to be here #Vote Chez If he flips mafia it explains why he don't vote Sandro and just vote Trfl. chez/Sandro/Palmar Main scum thoughts I have in my head. If Chez flips green or blue I will have to figure out if trfel or Sandro is scum. But either one of them is. And as this less Townplayers we shouldn't not get any more Townlynchs. When I am already just getting the same fucking role I will win this shit against fucking scum. To me, this screams like a bus and is the second main point I see in die_meatbaby's filter. She seems very confident here that Chezinu is mafia, see the last sentence of the above quote. But this doesn't really make sense to me from a town perspective for two reasons. 1 - Nothing changed since EoD1 to make her want to lynch Chezinu, except that that's the consensus lynch everyone else went for. Her reasoning was true as soon as Chezinu voted for Vivax and remained unchanged. Chezinu was suspicious but seemingly not her top scumread then, why did this change now? Except for that Chezinu became a major wagon. 2 - No protest against lynching Chezinu or wanting to lynch Palmar, who seems to be her top scumread. Suddenly Chezinu is just as likely to be mafia. This feels very suspicious to me. On December 15 2023 09:49 die_meatbaby wrote: Emphasis mine, relevant sentence bolded. I get the reasoning but given her perspective going into this, it doesn't make sense at all to me.No it´s one of them you and chez. If chez flips red we will see that. i read antoher mafia game of yours and it just makes me so mad how you go on weak players and get Town to lynch them. You saw the mistakes that Vivax made on D1 and you took you chance to make first a safe Townread from almost everybody here and second to get a town lynch. Chez not voting Sandro 1 1/2 hour before lynch and not on D2 means something and you voting chez for saftey now. Chez has so many votes means mafia is already on him as well if he flips red. If he flips green you are still my preferred lynch after chez. Voting on you make now no sense because to less votes, you still have to many townreads. Or it is chez knowing he get caught and vote on Trfel so we think Sandro is with you guys but it will actually be Trfel, chez and you. Mafia loss this game. You can give up if you want as well Town will win anyway if chez flips red in 2 hours On December 15 2023 12:08 die_meatbaby wrote: Then she goes on to say I'm more likely mafia than sandroba. This really sticks out to me since it's post Chezinu flip, and she was using associations about Chezinu's vote making sandroba look really bad earlier. So why post-Chezinu flipping mafia would she lean towards ME being mafia and not sandroba, whereas she should be leaning towards sandroba being mafia more than me, given her position before the flip and how the flip should change her view?Dp was already at the start suspicious of Trfel. We all thinking of differnt scum in here. Sandro thinks me and Palmar. palmar have thoughts on Sandro and Trfel and so on, but most of us has one of them in our "scumlist" chez not voting sandro and just Trfel makes it seem like Sandro is on the team, but as he played to today and tried to not get lynched and this would just be to easy to be the truth it has to be Chez, Trfel, and ."?"... in my opinion still Palmar. This would explain the first NK as well. On December 15 2023 12:30 die_meatbaby wrote: Okay, the word still is crucial here. For how long has Palmar been her top scumread? This reinforces the aforementioned point about the vote onto Chezinu.Koshi and Rayn are not so activ in this game or at least I have the feeling of this and as I know Koshi is a lazy Mafia and Rayn is strange as well. Palmar is still my top scum read here. I sure he playing around with Town. Conclusion I think die_meatbaby is mafia. I think that this is indicated most by the way she has voted. Day 1, die_meatbaby voted for Vivax without giving a single reason why Vivax is mafia (other than just saying his filter is bad, which to me isn't a reason). She seems to have gone along with the thread sentiment really easily, and also didn't seem very passionate about lynching Vivax. Day 2, die_meatbaby voted for Chezinu while seemingly having Palmar as top scumread. She absolutely did not seem to care that Palmar wasn't being lynched or that she hadn't been sure that Chezinu was mafia, and nothing changed since her vague suspicion about Chezinu to being content with lynching Chezinu over even Palmar. See the analysis spoiler for more detail, but I'm just going to post this now. Will now read Palmar, and then raynpelikoneet if I have enough energy. I'm going to vote for die_meatbaby though, I think that the votes and explanations are very incriminating. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:02 marvellosity wrote: Yeah I get that. To the best of my knowledge, night kill analysis says you or Palmar (or I guess both) is mafia, but I don't believe that very much yet.THere is gonna be an absolute shit ton of wifom about this NK because of the loop of people being suspicious of Palmar (inc Koshi) and the fact I have been defending Palmar. I don’t know how you’re supposed to successfully escape this loop with a conclusion one way or another, it feels impossible. Any thoughts about die_meatbaby? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:17 marvellosity wrote: Hm. I guess I never felt like just calling something bad was a fair descriptor. It still feels so thread-sentiment driven that it's weird for it to be a coincidence, I'll have to think about it though.So I think your point d1 about Vivax is bad - actuallly you don’t need a better reason than thinking Vivax’s filter was bad. That was the gist of the whole case. I liked your bit about the vote on Chez. Something I am thinking about is the tone of DMB’s posts. Because actually a lot seems to come down to this. Palmar (without talking about his alignment for the moment) basically has a tone read that she is town, as in he is buying how she reacts to things in the thread. There’s another option though, that I want to get to a laptop for at some point to see if I want to make a post about (see that waffle!) - and that is some of the emotion is contrived. Maybe sand is right about his comment on DMB talking about Palmar’s filter. But on top of that there is sort of stuff in there where DMB is… over emotional? Or maybe better wording, over angry at town at certain points? Or maybe it feels like she is leaning too much into “not rolling mafia”, but shouldn’t that come across a bit less angry and a bit more sad or bored? I may not be explaining this very well, partly because I haven’t really put in the work to see if these preliminary thoughts are accurate or not. I'm not good about tonereads, it's really hard for me to tell what emotion is genuine and what is not over text, and especially using that to figure out alignments is a nightmare. If you think you can make more sense of it then I await your report. I see what you are saying about the die_meatbaby/Vivax thing I suppose. I saw someone mention that die_meatbaby usually jumps all over whatever she thinks Vivax says that is suspicious since they know each other, it still just feels off to me, but I get that I could be wrong. Meh. You still think Palmar is town, right? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point. + Show Spoiler [analysis] + It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster. On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote: Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this.This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it. Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case". This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town. But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today. This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though. On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote: Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh.Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch. On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote: Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all.Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think Then we have slam and chez On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote: Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness).Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk.My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can. If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game. Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game. I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing. On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote: Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid.The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare. You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me". Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now? On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote: How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this.stay safe Marv This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea. On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote: Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated.Day Two Vote Count Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi sandroba (2): Trfel (1): die_meatbaby (0): Palmar (0): Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched! The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote: Okay I just really don't get it.I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away. Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch. Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't. It's largely an emotional read on sandro. On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote: But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in?My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows. On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote: Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam.Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further. No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out. 1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect. 2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read. In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:45 marvellosity wrote: Sorry I am confused, doesn't that support what I am saying?Remember Slam masoned Palmar on d1 Trfel | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:45 marvellosity wrote: My interpretation was that you were more just doubting. Palmar was sometimes doubting and sometimes certain. But maybe that's just the way he is.Isn’t that exactly what I did for a lot of it? Maybe I'm just not thinking clearly anymore, sorry if that is the case | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:50 marvellosity wrote: Fair enough. I just don't know what to make of Palmar and I respect your ability to read him, so as a result I am very interested in your thoughts. Perhaps the things that stick out to me aren't the important things though.I don’t have the truth for you, just asking questions! | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:49 Palmar wrote: What happened to me being possible mafia?Neither really. We’re weekend posting. The game is actually quite simple from my point of view. There are only 3 options. Rayn HF Sandroba. All I need to do is figure out who is the best lynch | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:56 marvellosity wrote: That's fair enough. I would still guess that Palmar is town, just not as certain of him being town as I was before.Eh… maybe. I can see why you think it and I’m not gonna tell you you’re wrong. Maybe I will pay attention to that on a reread. My gut reaction is meh though, which I understand isn’t very helpful right now. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 16 2023 18:01 marvellosity wrote: Wouldn't mafia Palmar push Vivax because it was an easy push to make himself look towny?Thinking about d1. Palmar started Vivax wagon, at that point you had 3 votes and no one else had more than 1. So from a gameplay perspective, if palmar is mafia then he’s doing it to distract from you. Of course he could potentially be doing it to wrest control of the thread to lynch Vivax, but why? He risks Vivax making himself look v town (the unfortunate fact is the deadline and when people are around meant that even high Vivax became clearly town it was too late) The town explanation is really, really easy. Palmar wakes up on 2nd 48h of day 1. Decides to filter Vivax. Sees it’s trash. Wants to lynch him. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [analysis] + On December 11 2023 03:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: To be honest I am having a hard time figuring out what raynpelikoneet is getting at here. But the point is that he is suspicious of Holyflare and thinks he is mafia for two reasons. If I recall correctly, this didn't gain much momentum and I am interested to see how exactly raynpelikoneet reacted to that.because he is trying to say (1) palmar made a post about sandroba, which he considers bussing. (2) because of that, he votes for me, because i think palmar is town (for whatever reason) (3) after catching up he is now suspicious of vivax, who shares the whole sentiment of him thinking palmar is bussing sandroba, which doesnt make any sense. and even if he changed his mind, then (2) should not apply because we all 4 cannot be mafia... On December 11 2023 04:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: I do like the followup. It may not be what I'm used to from raynpelikoneet (no shouting) but it's still solid, I'll take it.I am gonna take a little break. My feet have been cold for like 3 days because of shitty socks, and i just want to go to sauna now that i can. Will be back in an hour. If anyone would like to have an opinion on Holyflare, and especially on what i said on him, i would appreciate. On December 11 2023 06:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: Surprised he doesn't include sandroba, given the discussions he had and some suspicions shared, but I don't know if it's super alignment indicative other than possible TMI that sandroba is town but that's on pretty sketchy ground. This is post #412, at this point die_meatbaby's only post in the game is this:koshi, hf, dmb best lynch On December 11 2023 01:23 die_meatbaby wrote: Which really sticks out to me. I'm very surprised that raynpelikoneet would include die_meatbaby in the best lynch list, alongside Holyflare, who he is strongly scumreading, and more than sandroba, who he is suspicious of. Why not include Chezinu, if it's a pure policy? This by itself isn't the most incriminating (though I do think it sticks out) but I'm very interested to see what he thinks about policy lynches/Chezinu lynch later. If he's one of the people that speaks out against policy/gamble lynches then this looks decently suspicious to me.Unless raynpelikoneet actually thought something about this is suspicious?Hello nice do play again. Didn't post anything and there are already votes. I will catch up in a few hours as soon as my shift is finished On December 11 2023 06:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: And also suspicious of Vivax? It's possible there is a line of reasoning/association I am missing here, but this doesn't seem like a town thought process to me. Yet he never voted for Vivax.maybe actually when she flips mafia, lynch vivax, then lynch anyone who thought vivax is town other than me :D Raynpelikoneet ended up switching from Holyflare to sandroba at end of day to save Vivax, seeing that Vivax had been active. This is understandable, as he'd been out for a while and was just coming back with 13 minutes until end of day. On December 13 2023 00:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: Here I'm very surprised that die_meatbaby ended up not on this list? Wasn't raynpelikoneet saying we should lynch her earlier? To be fair she'd only made one post at that time, by now she'd posted more, but this means there must have been something that raynpelikoneet liked about die_meatbaby's posts. This is post 1195, before this point what did die_meatbaby do? Answer: just a page and a half of filter. I'm going to assume that the (presumed) townread is for being around at EoD and trying to save Vivax. This is reasonable ish I suppose.I ended up with list of: Holyflare Chezinu sandroba Trfel Koshi in no particular order atm. Everyone else i think is more or less town. On December 13 2023 02:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: Here's the explanation. I actually think this makes sense, this is actually a very valid point. Props to raynpelikoneet.Also why i think DMB is town, i see like 0% reason DMB does not lynch Vivax D1 here as mafia. Hell Vivax even scumreads her, i see no world where mafia!DMB does not lynch Vivax. On December 13 2023 02:20 raynpelikoneet wrote: So Chezinu is more than just a policy...I also want to lynch Chezinu because i think he implied someone is blue or red but didn't go further into it when i asked. On December 13 2023 04:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: Says Palmar may not be town. I don't quite follow the reasoning but it seems understandable that raynpelikoneet could think this.There are some points where he breaks character. Like all up to his p2 of filter is fine very Palmar-esque, but then he makes a weird list post (not that it's bad). I find it out of character anyways and i don't know what it means. It's all like full Palmar mode into tunneling Vivax into "hey here are my reads and these people i am up to lynching".... Idk it just feels very out of place to me. Then it's all back to said "character". It's like it's a different person writing that one post. On December 13 2023 05:09 raynpelikoneet wrote: Still confident in sandroba being mafia.Why is Palmar top 1 contributor in his list when Palmar just lead a mislynch and DP top 2 was probably on mafia sandroba? On December 13 2023 09:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: Still confident in sandroba.Like i think i nailed HF to the wall regardless if i am right or wrong. sandroba is mafia though Koshi is prolly town tbh, i am just so sad. trfel trfel... can trfel be mafia with sandroba? On December 15 2023 01:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why are people, name Trfel and Koshi saying i have voted for Vivax or even scumread him? On page 84 Trfel has just read my filter apparently, and is claiming i hvae voted for Vivax. Confused by what raynpelikoneet was talking about in the post about lynching Vivax, maybe it was a joke that I missed? Because I generally thought you lynch people you are scumreading... On December 15 2023 01:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: Ends up voting for Chezinu. No reason given.Why are people, name Trfel and Koshi saying i have voted for Vivax or even scumread him? On page 84 Trfel has just read my filter apparently, and is claiming i hvae voted for Vivax. On December 15 2023 02:28 raynpelikoneet wrote: You talked ~20 pages about same stuff we did D1. Then Slam (and Trfel) orchestrated a switch to Chezinu, who everyone seems to think is mafia, but noone wants to vote for. Then i voted for Chezinu. On December 15 2023 02:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: This is interesting. Suddenly actually thinks Chezinu is mafia:Like i still think sandroba is mafia, but i also think Chezinu is mafia and noone seems to be willing to vote for him while thinking he is mafia and drawing some random conclusions about it. On December 15 2023 02:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: That wasn't what I got before, I thought he only had one thought on Chezinu other than seemingly POEing him? To be fair it's possible that that one thought was enough here.I think chezinu is mafia I think sandroba is mafia I think HF is mafia there is 3 reasons On December 15 2023 02:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: Raynpelikoneet stands by this. I don't know if this logic for reading Chezinu makes much sense, but that doesn't matter, all that matters is if raynpelikoneet thinks it makes sense, and that I cannot say.I heavily dislike this post and i want HF to put a vote on Chezinu no matter his alignment. Chezinu is genuinely scummy, i tried to get into conversation with him about if he actually believes Trfel is blue or red. It didn't happen. He just kept repeating the same stuff. On December 15 2023 22:28 raynpelikoneet wrote: How impactful raynpelikoneet was in getting Chezinu lynched has already been debated for a while, I don't care to argue about that. I am interested though how important raynpelikoneet thought his own vote on Chezinu was, like how passionate he was about it. Because I didn't get a ton of passion. His scumreads have felt fairly static this game to be honest.First of all there is no way i am voting for Chezinu over sandroba D2 when i did if i was mafia. Not even in the scenario where i am mafia with Chezinu and sandroba. I was the key person to actually make Chezinu lynch even viable option at that time. So i guess it's time to look through all the people who are telling i am mafia because i voted for Chezinu, or whatever i did during D2. There is mafia there and there is probably 2 mafia in there. That means i don't care about Slam, Trfel, DMB. Then he seems to think that Koshi could be mafia. On December 16 2023 03:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: Then surprised that Koshi or I aren't worth considering? Or sandroba? He said that the game is likely solved, but it seems like there are a lot of people he is still suspicious of here?Im thinking most likely answer atm is HF + Palmar. This was pretty funny. On December 16 2023 08:09 raynpelikoneet wrote: But they aren't on his scum team and the game is solved? Confused.I really don't know how Koshi and sandroba look really good even from your perspective. It's tough for me to get any conclusions about raynpelikoneet. If he's town I think he's played a solid game. If he's mafia I think he's played a very strong and impressive game. There's a lot of little nitpicky things, but I don't really think those are alignment indicative. The most alignment indicative things I see are: Static scumreads. This isn't a reason to be suspicious of people that I'm used to using, but I know people mention it a lot. Raynpelikoneet's scumreads do seem rather static here, compared to what I generally expect from him. Lots of suspicion. He seems to have cleared very few people as being town throughout the game, and while he has top lynches he seems to want to get more than others, he keeps throwing suspicion at a large amount of people. And he seems to be very content with suspecting a large amount of people, extremely content even. His vote onto Chezinu. I actually do think it's suspicious, how he voted for Chezinu despite seemingly being more invested in Holyflare and/or sandroba being mafia and talking more about them. I know he's said that he thinks he had the pivotal vote on Chezinu that enabled the lynch to happen. People have debated this but let's assume that this is true for a moment, with this assumption in place I'm surprised that he then didn't seem very invested in the actual wagon/lynch itself? Not long after voting he even said something to the effect of "I think sandroba is mafia and I also think Chezinu is mafia but I'll lynch Chezinu since sandroba has a higher chance of providing new information later" which is a valid perspective but he doesn't seem very passionate about lynching Chezinu over sandroba. Not sure if I said that in a way that makes sense. I could see raynpelikoneet being town or mafia, which isn't very helpful, if he is mafia though I think it is due to the above reasons. It's like he's suspicious of a lot of people but isn't actually passionate about any votes he makes or actually lynching anyone? That does seem off to me. Maybe slight leaning mafia, to be honest. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote: Palmar, do you have any thoughts on point (1) above? Something I am missing or not understanding maybe?Palmar I should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point. + Show Spoiler [analysis] + It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster. On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote: Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this.This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it. Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case". This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town. But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today. This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though. On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote: Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh.Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch. On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote: Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all.Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think Then we have slam and chez On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote: Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness).Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk.My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can. If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game. Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game. I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing. On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote: Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid.The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare. You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me". Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now? On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote: How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this.stay safe Marv This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea. On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote: Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated.Day Two Vote Count Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi sandroba (2): Trfel (1): die_meatbaby (0): Palmar (0): Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched! The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote: Okay I just really don't get it.I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away. Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch. Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't. It's largely an emotional read on sandro. On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote: But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in?My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows. On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote: Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam.Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further. No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out. 1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect. 2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read. In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 03:50 Palmar wrote: Oh, I see. I suppose that's understandable. Thanks.No not really. Slam is a troll player who did some things that I thought might be townie. Day 1: slam does something townie so he gets a pass N1/D2: slam does very little I think is townie, so my townread fades a little N2/D3: slam helped kill mafia, so he renews his pass I would still fully support a vigilante killing him. He is very difficult to read and because he doesn't really play the game it's hard to figure out his alignment. But what little I can divine into his alignment leads me to think that he's more likely to be town than not. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 05:40 raynpelikoneet wrote: + Show Spoiler [Wingspan] +Wingspan is a really nice game I do really like Wingspan, engine builders in general are pretty fun. I do think that if you only have the base game (no expansions), the wild nests get a bit unbalanced. If you are able to get a few birds with wild nest types, you can pretty easily win each end-of-round condition since they are all related to nest types. I have heard that the expansions make this less pronounced by adding other end-of-round bonus point conditions unrelated to nest types, but I haven't tried any expansions yet. Glad you are enjoying it @Holyflare, do you know when you might be able to share your reasoning for Palmar being mafia? I still need to look over sandroba's reasoning again but right now I'm just not seeing it Feeling pretty blind. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Like I could see raynpelikoneet being mafia, it wouldn't really surprise me, but it doesn't make anywhere near as much sense as I would like to have any sort of confidence in it. I need to reread Alakaslam, Holyflare, and sandroba. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 10:32 raynpelikoneet wrote: I think die_meatbaby is mafia. For realzies, all the bells and whistles and all that.would like to see who you ACTULLY DO think is mafia, please? Past that I don't know. I'm missing something in this game, my best reason for that is that someone who is good at mafia is completely fooling me. The hard part is figuring out who that could be. Holyflare says Palmar is obvious mafia, which I find very interesting, I look forward to hearing why. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I also don't feel like the desire to get Palmar lynched is genuine. Could be wrong about this for sure, she says a lot of words on Palmar, but my instinct is that the motivation isn't really behind it. Could be wrong. That's most of it, I also don't really have a ton of reasons to townread her I suppose? Other than the Vivax thing. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 10:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: Honestly I'm just not seeing Palmar as mafia. Like theoretically it could be possible, but I'm not sure if Palmar's play this game is in the range of his scum play (to be fair I don't really know what his scum play range is, I just was under the impression that it wasn't quite on the level of someone like you or Holyflare). I looked through his filter, there were a few things that came up but nothing seriously scummy. One of the main points I had on him ended up having a somewhat plausible explanation. Furthermore, I do believe marvellosity is town and I trust marvellosity's read on Palmar, he said he's going to re-evaluate that over the course of the day but for now that's still a townread.I am also saying Palmar is obvious mafia barring the conversation we had. Do you have an opinion of yours on that? I think perhaps the most likely answer is that one of my assumptions are wrong and that Holyflare or sandroba or Alakaslam is mafia. I have no idea why they would be mafia though, I'm hoping to get through some filter dives sooner or later. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I don't really see anything atypical from Palmar's posting, which is why I have a hard time seeing him as mafia. I'd normally townread him but I'm having a lot of trouble finding the last mafia. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 11:04 raynpelikoneet wrote: Not a ton to be honest? You guys were both kinda agreeing, in the case that you're both town. IIRC you said sandroba would be the most likely mafia in this case? I'd have to check.So you don't have anything to say about what we discussed here just for like for two hours? What was I supposed to have gathered from the discussion? Like not that it was bad by any means, but I didn't get the same takeaways from it that you and Palmar seem to have. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 11:14 raynpelikoneet wrote: If I'm being honest I don't know what your takeaways were. I might need to reread it because I feel like it went completely over my head, I can try and look again once I get through Holyflare's filter.If you don't get the same takeaways we did, why don't you disagree with them? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 04:29 Holyflare wrote: I thought you were also suspicious of raynpelikoneet and to a lesser extent sandroba? When you have a moment, I'm curious why die_meatbaby is more likely mafia than them?but I still think it's DMB with him Holyflare's reads have been changing a lot, probably the person with the most fluid reads I've read so far. Really the only person in the game with truly fluid reads, except for possibly Alakaslam? But that's a bit different. I don't know if this makes Holyflare mafia or town, I don't see a ton of mafia motivation in his posts though. I don't really like his day 2 stance about saying Chezinu was mafia but not wanting to lynch him because a non-policy lynch gives more information, but I can't say that Holyflare doesn't actually think this. The main thing that sticks out to me is the day2 -> day 3 read progression. He was heavily suspicious of sandroba, and raynpelikoneet, and Palmar, and then ends up with a scumteam of Palmar and die_meatbaby. I feel like there are a lot of missing steps there. To be fair Holyflare said he didn't have much time to explain, so I am guessing an explanation is coming, but for now that's the thing I find most suspicious. I guess also, the way Holyflare bounced around day 2 between all the aforementioned suspects without seeming to really settle on a preferred lynch/push seems kinda weird, just letting thread sentiment go ahead and lynch Chezinu without much protest? But I can't say for sure he wouldn't do that as town. I also kinda think that the asking how many mafia there are thing is suspicious but that's really stupid and pointless and if Holyflare is mafia surely there are better reasons to find than that. In conclusion I don't really think Holyflare is mafia but he's burned me a million times so who knows. If he's mafia I don't really have any reasons as to why. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 11:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Die_meatbaby is just mafia?Can you ever make a read that is not "i think mafia but also town"? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Day 1, she voted for Vivax despite saying very little about Vivax and focusing on Palmar and a few other things. It feels like she didn't really believe Vivax was mafia but just went along with it. Day 2, most incriminating imo, she voted for Chezinu despite focusing on Palmar all day. Her read progressions/view of the game doesn't line up with being content to lynch Chezinu, to me anyway. It feels like a bus. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 11:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am in bed and don't really want to get up and go to my computer and pull up a bunch of quotes but I suppose I can if necessary. Honestly it is just the impression I got though.Can you also make me a big ass post on this, what you actually think about this, so i can make some sense of this train of thought of yours? You spent more time talking about and pushing Holyflare and sandroba, then seemed content to lynch Chezinu and mostly talked about him after the wagon got going. This partially has a plausible explanation in that it's kinda hard to discuss Chezinu a ton. Holyflare was kinda similar for example (being okay with Chezinu's lynch but not passionate about it, and focusing on other things) but he said he would have preferred a different lynch for more information. You didn't have a reason like that. Like it isn't unreasonable to see that coming from a town perspective, it makes enough sense. But I do think it was natural for this to happen as mafia too, like it makes sense for mafia to act that way. I don't think you are mafia, I'm kinda grasping at straws and don't know who is mafia though Bleh. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 11:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: I was ignoring the deadline play. Iirc she came back with about an hour and a half until the flip, I was ignoring this period. BEFORE the vote switch and that last deadline activity, I stand by my statements.D1 end she almost ended up lynching sandroba (votes were 6-6). At the end yeah she didnt really believe Vivax was mafia. What's wrong with her play here on D1? I don't like defending other people but you, jsut like fucking Koshi and HF for instance like to take half of the story and try to make it fit your narrative, it's fucking annoying. I was there, she tried to make sandroba lynch instead of Vivax, anything else you claim is wrong. She could be bussing D2, i can see that. I don't think that die_meatbaby's flailing at eod1 is easy to get much from. I could see arguments both ways, and it's also tough without knowing sandroba's alignment for sure. Your point about how it makes her town is probably the best. But I think the points before (before those last few hours to the deadline) and after (day 2) are more impactful. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
1392 on Palmar 1471 on Holyflare and moreso on sandroba 1944 on Chezinu, Holyflare, and sandroba I think the point on Holyflare came from how you were sticking with the misreading/not reading thing from early on. I think I attributed more passion to this than maybe was appropriate. Regardless, you did discuss Holyflare and sandroba and reasons to be suspicious of them more than you did Chezinu. I already said that since posting I realized that one plausible explanation for this is that discussing Chezinu is difficult, there isn't a ton to say. I don't know why this did not occur to me earlier. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 17 2023 12:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: I stand by what I said. I checked your filter and it matches my claims.Every single thing i have pointed out, with Koshi, with HF, the explanation is always "i am sorry i didn't read so well". No more, how the fuck do you explain that train of thought from yours Trfel. I don't think those claims mean a ton anymore due to the aforementioned explanation I missed, but that doesn't change that the claims match the evidence.. I don't mean to be frustrating and I am sorry it comes off that way. If I may, may I ask why this is so irritating? I'm not saying you are mafia, and especially not over this. I'm not trying to misconstrue or manipulate anything. Even if I am wrong, which I don't think I am, but even if somehow I am, I'm not trying to be malicious? Like I'm not attacking you or anyone else. i'm just doing my best to play in a hard game. I'm sorry if I can't live up to any standards people may have, I never pretended to be good at this. I'm happy to discuss this but I don't want to make anyone upset or angry and am truly confused how it has come to that point. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
The thing is, it's just not like that for everyone else. You're just super freaking good at this in particular. No one else can match that. I get how it can be frustrating, but it's just the reality that if you hold others to the same standards you set for yourself in terms of logic, most people won't be able to keep up. It's just the way it is and it's not really something that can be changed. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Marvellosity, do you not think die_meatbaby is mafia? I'm confused as to what you think of her. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I would very much like to lynch die_meatbaby but if that isn't possible I would lynch Holyflare over Palmar. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Which I will do if it comes to it, would just really rather lynch die_meatbaby. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 18 2023 08:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: Also voting Holyflare I guess.##vote Holyflare Out ofthese three i am voting here. I had least somewhat productive discussion with Palmar last night, DMB i dont think is mafia. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 18 2023 12:29 sandroba wrote: I wanted to lynch die_meatbaby but was unable to do so. Tried to make the best of bad options and failed.Trfel, you ruined your amazing D2 dude, sad indeed Will do my best going forward, I dunno if my reads change a ton though tbh. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Sorry Holyflare, I just wasn't sure what to do. Bleh. Agree about die_meatbaby. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 18 2023 12:59 sandroba wrote: Nah I think what you did was reasonable, it just was unfortunate with the deadline and for some reason people just don't want to lynch die_meatbaby which still boggles my mind. It was worth a try, it was the rest of us that let you down.I should probably accept that I'm probably the baddie here and psyched myself out thinking about this palmar blue retarded theory. If I kept my vote on Palmar the outcome would have been a lot better. Even if Palmar flipped blue, I'd rather work with VT HF any day of the week. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 18 2023 13:01 sandroba wrote: Checked my role PM again, wouldn't have been that surprised if I misread it and am actually mafia but sadly I am not.There is at least one townie in here, but he is probably confused about his role pm. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Not sure if marvellosity came up with much via his blue role, will take a look though. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I think Palmar is probably my strongest townread, with sandroba not too far behind (I don't see how Palmar could be mafia unless he is mafia with marvellosity). Will have a lot of reevaluating to do. I still think die_meatbaby is mafia and don't really understand why people disagree. I need to catch up on the last 10 pages but I'll be here on-and-off for a while. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 19 2023 12:32 sandroba wrote: I don't think a tracker is a super useful role most of the time. I had a hunch marvellosity was quite possibly our other power role. The tough part is that even if you track someone and they don't visit anyone, they could still easily be mafia. I wouldn't even be surprised to see the mafia team having 2 regular goons. In fact, I would be very surprised if they have more than the (already flipped) roleblocker that visits people. Since they can have the same person deliver KP and roleblock, that leaves a 2/3 chance of the tracker being on mafia and still giving no information.Possible Marv tracked Palmar at some point and didn't see Palmar visit anyone. My heart says palmar, my head says sleep. Got Masoned by Trfel today, let's see if I can learn something Thus, I think the only information to be gained by a tracker is incriminating someone. I'm guessing that did not happen or that would have been claimed and/or that person would have been lynched. I'll try and take a look through his filter anyway though sometime before the end of the day. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 19 2023 06:51 die_meatbaby wrote: I reread the game and this d2 is just confusing as hell. The thing what really bothers me is T right before the lynch T writing this: the vote looked like this: Palmar (3): Holyflare (2): marvellosity, Palmar, die_meatbaby (2): Trfel, sandroba Not Voting (1): raynpelikoneet With 3 votes, Palmar is currently set to be lynched! The deadline is Monday, Dec 18 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in Rayn comes out of nowhere like a Pokemon tells us why he is voting on HF in the shortes, less taking afford way he can do. On December 18 2023 08:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: ##vote Holyflare Out ofthese three i am voting here. I had least somewhat productive discussion with Palmar last night, DMB i dont think is mafia. And Trfel directly chance his vote to HF and saved Palmar. It was 3 vs 3 votes and Palmar was the first high votest so he would still get lynched. Trfel stopped the Palmar lynch and chance his decision to vote on Palmar when nobody votes on me in 20 minutes without explanation why HF and not anymore Palmar. And don´t tell me this one post from rayn chanced your mind. On December 18 2023 09:12 Trfel wrote: [/QUOTE]In case I am wrong and you are town.Also voting Holyflare I guess. Raynpelikoneet's reasoning did not change my mind. My mind did not change. My first thought was that I would vote for Palmar to help consolidate votes (get all the votes on the same person to prevent last second moves from the mafia team). I did not want to lynch Palmar, but if he was getting lynched anyway, that was my best play. Once raynpelikoneet voted, I had a choice where my vote determined if Palmar or Holyflare was lynched. I chose to vote for Holyflare, for better or worse. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I will post my reasoning for die_meatbaby being mafia tomorrow, when I am back on my computer. I think the case for her being mafia is very strong. Alakaslam and raynpelikoneet, I would very much like to discuss this with you, I think it is of utmost importance. In the meantime, I ask, why do people think die_meatbaby is town? I understand the point about the day 1 lynch with Vivax. But that seems like the only reason I've heard with any merit. Everything else I have seen comes down to tone or stuff which I don't think makes much sense. Please help me understand, since if die_meatbaby is in fact town then this is very critical. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
In case I am wrong and you are town. Fixed the quotes Raynpelikoneet's reasoning did not change my mind. My mind did not change. My first thought was that I would vote for Palmar to help consolidate votes (get all the votes on the same person to prevent last second moves from the mafia team). I did not want to lynch Palmar, but if he was getting lynched anyway, that was my best play. Once raynpelikoneet voted, I had a choice where my vote determined if Palmar or Holyflare was lynched. I chose to vote for Holyflare, for better or worse. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I believe that die_meatbaby is mafia due to the cognitive dissonance in her posts. As in, I cannot put together a town mindset that die_meatbaby's play is coming from that makes sense. For example, if someone says "I want to lynch person A" but their actions do not indicate that they think player A is mafia or that they actually care about lynching player A, that would be an example of the cognitive dissonance I am referring to. Cognitive dissonance 1: Palmar is mafia, but die_meatbaby doesn't take any actions towards lynching Palmar + Show Spoiler + I thought Holyflare made a post about this but I can't seem to find it. It must have been someone else. Die_meatbaby has been scumreading Palmar the whole game, it's been quite the anti-Palmar crusade. However, she hasn't actually made any efforts to trying to lynch Palmar. She didn't even vote for Palmar until late day 3! Sure, die_meatbaby was scumreading Palmar night 1, and seemed pretty upset about it night 2. But when it actually comes down to it, die_meatbaby seems exceptionally content to vote for people other than Palmar, while Palmar is by far her biggest scumread. This doesn't match the mindset of someone who has been dead set on lynching Palmar this whole game. If you doubt this, read her filter yourself, or check the vote thread. When it's time to vote, die_meatbaby doesn't seem to care if Palmar lives or dies. Cognitive dissonance 2: Suspicious of everyone, not inquisitive/not trying to figure things out + Show Spoiler + This has become more clear towards the later portions of the game. Look at this series of posts after the day 3 lynch: On December 18 2023 22:04 die_meatbaby wrote: So, Palmar is mafia. Sandroba was saved by Chezinu when he voted for Vivax, which means sandroba is mafia, right? But Trfel is also maybe mafia! But there are only two members left alive for mafia?Trfel just waiting on which vote rayn was going and then voting on HF instead of Palmar... and I am more suspicious then this???? Maybe I am really wrong with Palmar and its Sandro and Trfel or Sandro and Palmar. How the fuck do I end up as scum in this bullshit scenario. I voted for Palmar. I was against HF lynch. I chanced my vote on Vivax as soon it was clear that he was town and we weren't anoth Townies at that lynch to chance it. Chez was suspicious for me just not my main scum reason and as I already said he is hard to read at least for me. Chez voting an 1 1/2 before lynch and not beeing here till lynch of Vivax is fucking suspicious. In America it's not fucking 4 am tell me that chez just safed you sandro. Because if Vivax didn't get lynched you would and he saved you!!! Tell me I am fucking right with this!! If you are scum just give up. Letting the newbie alive because it's always save to have somebody you can easy lynch. I am just a another version of VE. Always mafia lets VE alive. In every game VE was misslynch from Town (if he was Town) and you guys using me as your next misslynch for Town just because newbie looks scummy. "she writes different" She compares old games with the actual play still using here" She is not playing like the other that looks scummy". No you fucking with the wrong Town here. I am not VE and will do everything what this Town needs and if nobody sees this how chez just safed you at the vivax lynch I am obviously playing with the wrong people here. You all telling me how high you meta is and the experience you guys have over the last decade... yes we talking about a fucking decade and you don't see that. On December 18 2023 22:21 die_meatbaby wrote: Fuck off with this Palmar tunnel I have. I don't care who is mafia with you but you fucking are. Chez didn't vote on you at first and second lynch. It was so obvious that we couldn't believe it. But now I see the light at the end of my tunnel and this light is you. I can't step on the gas pedal, because the traffic light is so red... On December 18 2023 22:47 die_meatbaby wrote: Suddenly posting about raynpelikoneet as well. Is she suspicious of him also? That makes four mafia in a two player game.I already said lets fucking vote this ego busted dickhead and the people here voting still on HF Rayn isn't here the hole day votes on HF instead of Palmar and Trfel waiting to see what rayn is going to do and votes then also on HF. Why not TRFEL and Rayn or Trfel and you or Trfel and Palmar. Why was he waiting? He is sad about HF and votes on him. What did he expect? Why didn't the people vote on Palmar here ot least on me as I said lynch rather me then HF. Yes I was also wrong but I knew he was at least not scum. On December 18 2023 23:38 die_meatbaby wrote: And here goes marvellosity and Alakaslam too.The actuall fuck is goeing on here. I am at the point were i am just pissed on mafia for fooling us so hard. You got almost lynched 2 times at the first two lynches and chez saved you all two lynches even at the second one he rather voted on Trefel then on you. It is so obvious that i can´t believe it myself that that could actually be true. Rayn coming, telling in 2 or 3 sentences why he rather vote on HF than on me or Palmar. Trefel beeing around and just waiting with his vote what was the main reason why HF was lynched because he could have let it on me or on Palmar and then beeing sad about HF lynch. WTF is this here. MARV not even thinking a bit of Palmar beeing scum And Slam starts posting like chez and I don´t understand what he wants to say with his strange posts The hell i am suspicious of to many people here right now Please understand, it's not scummy to be suspicious of lots of people. The suspicious thing is the lack of desire to figure out which suspicious people are actually mafia and which are town. Die_meatbaby is very content to just have everyone as suspicious, which is extremely mafia motivated and shows no desire to solve the game. On December 18 2023 23:44 die_meatbaby wrote: I fucking tell you why. Lynch Nr. 1 Most people are on Vivax second most voted train Sandro. Chez voted 1 hour before lynch on Vivax. At this point he should aready know that Vivax will get emtional now and he has good scum player should also know that maybe the vote train will go on sandro, but sadly not anoth town people here at that moment to save Vivax, Second lynch almost everbody on chez at the end of the timer but few hours before there was voting train on chez or on sandro and chez still rather voting on Trfel then on Sandro why should he do that. She's just coming up with whatever reason to be suspicious of anyone that she can, here it relies on me being town. This all makes no sense from a town perspective. Cognitive dissonance 3: lots of emotional energy, little/no scumhunting energy + Show Spoiler + Die_meatbaby is very angry and emotionally invested. But you don't see that investment in actual scumhunting. If someone is angry, if they are spending a lot of energy in the thread, it's because they care about the game, and thus presumably want to find mafia and win. But you don't see die_meatbaby trying to figure out people's alignments on anywhere NEAR the same magnitude as she is emotionally invested. Lots of the quotes above support this, or you can read her filter. She finds lots of things suspicious but doesn't seem to care to figure out who is actually mafia and who isn't. Then there are smaller things. For example, when Holyflare asks die_meatbaby who is mafia with Palmar, she answers: On December 18 2023 00:35 die_meatbaby wrote: There a people NOW who are thinking of him as scum, but not after the first lynch. I was alone with my thoughts there. I never votet on Palmar because it would just be a useless vote. First vote i need to safe vivax. (altough we missed one vote to safe him) Second 10 votes on chez... 1 vote on Palmar will chance the lynch... yeah.. I most likley think it would be Trfel or you! On December 18 2023 04:12 die_meatbaby wrote: But four hours later the second post comes. Which one is it? If Holyflare is one of the most likely candidates for being the remaining mafia member, why would she say he is blue and want herself lynched instead? And if she thinks Holyflare is blue, how would have have a chance of being mafia? This is not the view of someone who is looking at the game and actually trying to figure out people's alignments.rather lynch me than HF. Better do lose a normal Town then losing a blue one! I will die for Town and i will not care but i will not be with a lynch our hope for a vigi or something else what could help. I'm convinced that die_meatbaby is mafia. If you are not, please talk to me and help me to understand why, since it is very important that town is in agreement this phase. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Because I am not mafia and if you are town playing like this is losing the game. I do not get the impression you are paying any attention to what I am saying. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
You haven't responded to any posts I've made this game (if I recall correctly) since my response to sandroba's first post. At the very start of the game. I'm sorry for getting irritated, but I'm doing my best here and it feels like I am talking to an empty room. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 20 2023 07:37 Alakaslam wrote: I don't think English comprehension plays a significant effect on my reasoning but you are free to correct me if I am missing something?I admit, not much to anyone. I will filter you next but I just see DMB as ESL and you seem to be the only EPL pushing for her to die. I could be wrong | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 20 2023 09:20 die_meatbaby wrote: What changed between posts #2629 and #2714 that made you think this?I was. Thats the only reason why I wanted that you guys rather lynch me then him. Better losing normal Town than power role. I wanted to die for Town and you telling me i did nothing for Town here. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
It just makes me think you aren't actually trying to figure out Holyflare's alignment because your view completely changed for seemingly no reason. Like you forgot your own reasons. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I'll be around if anyone wants to talk. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 20 2023 18:25 Palmar wrote: It matters eventually.Does that matter Trfel? We're lynching your scumread. On December 20 2023 22:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: For point 2, it's suspicious regardless of whether or not Palmar is mafia for die_meatbaby. It means that she is looking active by posting about Palmar, but not actually caring. This is only mafia indicative.I think Trfel is just mafia here. - Trfel has been very wishy-washy on his reads during the whole game. I know town!Trfel is wishy-wasy, i just think he is overplaying it here. Basically every read until last night ends up being "could be or is not mafia" category. Basically Trfel has called everyone mafia except for Palmar. Only after marv starts getting suspicious of him and his town read on Palmar he starts getting these hard stances on people. I understand the less people we have the less room there is also for error, but it just doesn't seem natural at all to me. - Trfel calls DMB mafia for scumreading Palmar, but not doing anything with the read. Now this makes sense if the mafia team is exactly DMB and Palmar, but Trfel doesn't think this is the case because he townreads and has townread Palmar all game (except for one point where he thinks Palmar + marv could be mafia). This sort of behavior should only be suspicious for DMB if Palmar is mafia in his mind, because otherwise it doesn't make any sense to act like that, Palmar has been suspected by everyone pretty much during the whole game. - I still don't know understand this: Basically everything Trfel writes, even his case on DMB, should be in towards Palmar being mafia, yet Palmar is his strongest town read. So i am going to guess he thinks i am mafia or Slam is mafia. But he already said he doesn't think i am mafia. Does Slam being mafia make sense to anyone else? Based on Trfel's reads, how is he going to put up a mafia team of two people here? At least he hasn't contributed towards that in any sense, just that DMB is mafia.You are misrepresenting my points but I believe this is intentional so I will let you say whatever you feel like I suppose. - If Trfel really believes DMB is mafia, he didn't do anything to change the lynch on D3 to DMB. After i voted, he did absolutely nothing to contribute towards his preferred lynch DMB, just voted for HF and "gave up" for the day for whatever reason. Now the only reason i can of here, is that he wants to keep DMB as a lynch bait. The case he has presented against DMB was all there during D3, why didn't he act on it during D3? - Minor point but still a point, Trfel has (as Koshi did) misrepresented my actions during D1. We all know, or should know Koshi didn't read the thread properly, because he said so, and agreed to that when i was talking with him around the Chezinu lynch. Now Trfel has been reading the thread, at least he is trying to show such M.O. My interpretation is, that he knew Koshi is town, and took Koshi's statement of me having voted for Vivax D1 (when i never really did -- i called Vivax town) at face value without checking it even when i clearly expressed that earlier already, that i never did such thing!!. ##vote Trfel For point 3, this is answered by point 2. Point 4, I did want to lynch die_meatbaby during day 3 and I pushed this. See this case. I can't help it that not enough people wanted to join. If you actually read the portion of the post on die_meatbaby, which it seems like unfortunately most people did not do, it's actually very strong reasoning towards die_meatbaby being mafia. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
For me it has nothing to do with who I want to lose to and who I don't. Raynpelikoneet is playing an amazing game as mafia, this is true. I can look through his filter and only this last day imo is where he has started to give himself away. The most obvious reasons that make him mafia relate to his townread of die_meatbaby, there is absolutely no way that he should have such strong of a townread with so little doubt. His arguments have become increasingly irrational and the situation we have put him in, with a lot of pressure on his remaining mafia partner, has forced his hand. But this relies somewhat on associations with die_meatbaby so we can leave that for later. Die_meatbaby is mafia for the aforementioned reasons. Once she (presumably) flips mafia, the rest becomes obvious. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 21 2023 07:03 raynpelikoneet wrote: That's a poor representation, but sure.Wait so your opinion is i am mafia because i should have no town read on DMB? On December 21 2023 07:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: 1. No response. You can think whatever you want to think, I don't have anything to say.And (1)? (2) and (3). Maybe i can see this. (4) you probably tried or "tried". I know you didnt try after my vote while at least sandroba was claiming to try doing it.. 4. I did try, by the time you came back at the very end of the day I had given up. You came back with not that long until the lynch, yeah I'd given up by then when it had gotten no momentum throughout the day. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 21 2023 11:49 die_meatbaby wrote: A bit, yeah.will you feel stupid when I flip finally Town? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 21 2023 11:49 die_meatbaby wrote: Actually wait, why are you saying here that I am town?will you feel stupid when I flip finally Town? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 21 2023 12:04 die_meatbaby wrote: Nice work, lived a long time and had a lot of people fooled!gg | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Felt like sandroba did an incredible job. Really strong play. | ||
| ||
