EPTNewbie Student Mafia XXIX - Page 16
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Damdred
15669 Posts
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
On September 11 2018 07:27 Damdred wrote: Hi kel, how are you old feiend? I'm ok, how are things with you? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
 I just woke up, i will be here for a while in approx one hour. | ||
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
H My vote on sergio is just looking at Koshi's reads, Sergio's strange response to HF and the way he went about asking his questions , which felt like "this is how town should play". However again there's a lot of question marks due to the large number of AFK's. RoL and Meapak are pretty much done at this point. But guys like prplhz , rels, damdred havent done anything at all. prplhz especially just looks like spam to avoid a modkill. It feels wrong to lynch someone like vivax or sergio who are playing the game and letting people who aren't doing anything slip through. My plan is to hover around at deadline and look for someone trying to dodge the modkill with some meaningless posts and lynch that guy. Realistically all we have to go on is the mafia kill of koshi. I can see 3 different reasons. 1) They read Koshi as a role 2) Koshi had good reads 3) Koshi is a good player and a good medic dodge. 1) Did Koshi really say anything that screamed he was a role, I don't see it. If you did read him as a role you assume he'd use his power on HF, Sergio or Qatol. That wouldn't necessarily incriminate anyone right as if you think you found a blue you just kill them. Can anyone give me a post from Koshi that looks blue ? The only other option I see is that mafia is good enough or familiar enough with Koshi to read him as blue based on very little , or at least his game being different from town and mafia know he isn't mafia so must be blue. I'd only give Rayn that much credit. 2) Koshi having good reads , well he had HF as mafia and that was wrong but he had Sergio and Qatol as mafia which makes the two of them look bad. I'm not sure of the two of them who it makes worse. 3) If no one is really close to mafia you just lynch a good townie. Rayn and HF are N1 medic targets or rayn could be mafia so you just kill the next best guy which would be Koshi. Sticking point behind a Rayn being mafia theory is that Rayn and Koshi townread eachother pretty hard. So I see two helpful scenaris Rayn is mafia and killed Koshi as they have familiarity etc and potentially rayn could read him as blue Kosih was killed for his reads which would make Sergio or Qatol mafia, of the two i'd prefer Sergio. I've rambled on a lot here as I try to order my thoughts. So my play is to stay active at deadline then lynch into any AFK trying to ninja post/vote. But i'm keeping eyes on rayn and sergio. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
On September 11 2018 22:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: I think i want to lynch Kelsier. cool | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On September 11 2018 22:29 KelsierSC wrote: I am conflicted on who to lynch. Vivax would be a good lynch as he hasn't contributed anything meaningful apart from that bad kaley read which has been talked about. H My vote on sergio is just looking at Koshi's reads, Sergio's strange response to HF and the way he went about asking his questions , which felt like "this is how town should play". However again there's a lot of question marks due to the large number of AFK's. RoL and Meapak are pretty much done at this point. But guys like prplhz , rels, damdred havent done anything at all. prplhz especially just looks like spam to avoid a modkill. It feels wrong to lynch someone like vivax or sergio who are playing the game and letting people who aren't doing anything slip through. My plan is to hover around at deadline and look for someone trying to dodge the modkill with some meaningless posts and lynch that guy. Realistically all we have to go on is the mafia kill of koshi. I can see 3 different reasons. 1) They read Koshi as a role 2) Koshi had good reads 3) Koshi is a good player and a good medic dodge. 1) Did Koshi really say anything that screamed he was a role, I don't see it. If you did read him as a role you assume he'd use his power on HF, Sergio or Qatol. That wouldn't necessarily incriminate anyone right as if you think you found a blue you just kill them. Can anyone give me a post from Koshi that looks blue ? The only other option I see is that mafia is good enough or familiar enough with Koshi to read him as blue based on very little , or at least his game being different from town and mafia know he isn't mafia so must be blue. I'd only give Rayn that much credit. 2) Koshi having good reads , well he had HF as mafia and that was wrong but he had Sergio and Qatol as mafia which makes the two of them look bad. I'm not sure of the two of them who it makes worse. 3) If no one is really close to mafia you just lynch a good townie. Rayn and HF are N1 medic targets or rayn could be mafia so you just kill the next best guy which would be Koshi. Sticking point behind a Rayn being mafia theory is that Rayn and Koshi townread eachother pretty hard. So I see two helpful scenaris Rayn is mafia and killed Koshi as they have familiarity etc and potentially rayn could read him as blue Kosih was killed for his reads which would make Sergio or Qatol mafia, of the two i'd prefer Sergio. I've rambled on a lot here as I try to order my thoughts. So my play is to stay active at deadline then lynch into any AFK trying to ninja post/vote. But i'm keeping eyes on rayn and sergio. What the heck is this? This looks like you restated post #286, except you don't identify the posts where Koshi hinted he had a role (posts 76, 246, and 252). Why is HolyFlare a good N1 medic target? Koshi was sumreading HF really hard. In fact, Koshi thought HF was scummy enough to use a vigi shot on him. Shouldn't that mean "do not shoot HF at all costs?" I'm surprised you group Vivax together with Sergio as "playing the game" but prplhz and Rels as not. I agree Sergio is contributing. The other three seem to have contributed about the same amount to the conversation, unless you count arguing over whether Kaley was a smurf or lightly townreading Kaley without reading. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On September 10 2018 05:23 Sergiovan wrote: Rayn: in post #235 you state that no one but you and Qatol gave reads on Kaley. I clearly stated that I believed her to be town based on her attitude. More importantly though in the above mentioned post you say that “there is no way” that Koshi is scum. Go read my cases against him and explain how that is possible. I freely admit I don’t think he is a slam dunk 100% confirmed mafia but I fail to see how he is confirmed town. what is your read on Kelsier? I can’t decipher it from your post #241. In that same post why are you so quick to defend me? If you are going to tell me you seriously read Kaley as town after maybe 40 hours of D1 then you can die in a fire, because what you posted about him early on in D1 was a complete misconstrue of what he was saying (giving reads as you said -- which he definitely wasnt), especially going later onto D1. My read on Kelsier is coming soon. I am not defending you. I am pointing out irrational behavior by someone else where the target happens to be you, not to even mention HF asked for my read on Kelsier. Right now i don't think you are mafia but even if i did i would point such behavior out just because accusing someone (even someone i read as mafia) based on non-sensical reasons is just BS and points out towards them being mafia. idk if i have to still explain my read ok Koshi, if you think tha's relevant then go ahead and ask me to explain but the point on it is he made some posts that i found out almost impossible to come from mafia!Koshi. I also didn't care to focus on explaining my townread who was never under any threat of being lynched over other thigns i did D1. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ I think Kelsier is mafia basically because especially on D2 (and that Serge read D1-N1) is based on stuff that other people did. What Kelsier has done D2 is that he has created a narrative and for that he calls out some people. He makes an assumption why Koshi died, creates scenarios about what that means, and makes "reads" out of it. Except that nothing in those reads is based on what the person he scumreads actually did. Koshi can be right or Koshi can be wrong, but whatever Koshi said or did is not a reason for anyone to be mafia, otherwise Holyflare should have flipped red. I understand the idea behind Kelsier's mindset, but he is using Koshi as a REASON to read certain people as he does, and that's just lazy, cheap, and wrong. Because that's not how this game works. Other than that, let's go to look at those things, especially Kelsier's last big post. I find out there to be some huge problems: 1) Discounting everything else, why is Kelsier voting for Serge over Vivax right now? After all he has actual reasons to think Vivax is mafia, i mean like almost all his D1 is attacking Vivax and it is 100% certain that 0-posts Vivax doesn't at least look better D2 than he did D1. 2) There is no reasoning on Serge being mafia over Vivax (his top scumread D1) right now that wasn't there already on D1 as per his words, except for the below (which i find not reasonable at all). 3) Kelsier scumreads Serge on D1 for something that was not enough to switch his vote from Vivax. I think that should not be a reason to switch his vote come D2 either since Vivax hasn't made a single post after telling us how he "has a pretty good clue of who is mafia but he needs to wait until D2". Right now he is backing up his read on Serge with "Koshi and Holyflare thought Serge is mafia", which first of all isn't a reasonable reason to call anyone mafia (i talked about this earlier) and also there is the fact that the last posts HF and Koshi made on Serge are: On September 10 2018 06:28 Koshi wrote: Sure. But care levels are low. Good on you to do things. Not reading the things though. On September 10 2018 07:07 Holyflare wrote: Sergio cool now. Now i cannot be sure if Koshi states here he doesn't think Serge is mafia anymore or not, and we unfortunately cannot ask him, but that doesn't sound like a hard scumread anymore. Holyflare definitely doesn't have a scumread on Serge anymore. All this happened during N1. Even the narrative Kelsier is pushing is factually incorrect here. As a cherry on top of the cake he says this: It feels wrong to lynch someone like vivax or sergio who are playing the game and letting people who aren't doing anything slip through. My plan is to hover around at deadline and look for someone trying to dodge the modkill with some meaningless posts and lynch that guy. What's the point of voting for someone who you aren't even planning on lynching????? The pressure factor is gone right here because Kelsier basically said he is going to do something else by the end of the day. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ TLDR: - I think logically town!Kelsier should be voting for Vivax over Serge - I think Kelsier isn't using arguments based on what the person he accuses actually did (or even didn't) - Even his narrative (above) is based on irrational conclusions or missing some crucial posts - He is already backing off from lynching the people he apparently wants to lynch onto an inactive lynch. ##vote Kelsier | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
soooo.... | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On September 11 2018 22:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: I think i want to lynch Kelsier. Make a good case for it and I'll probably back you. That last post doesn't sit so well with me. I'll look and see if I see anything redeeming in his filter. | ||
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On September 11 2018 23:48 KelsierSC wrote: both you and Qatol could just ask for an explanation rather than posting a bunch of insulting stuff which makes you look foolish I never meant to insult you and I sincerely apologize if there's anything I said that did insult you. Please let me know what I said so I can do better in the future. I really do try my hardest to attack arguments, not people. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
The only thing I have to work with is the Koshi night kill so I posted my thoughts on it, even asking for people to link me posts where koshi hinted at blue and I get called mafia and people saying "what the heck is this" I am voting sergio at the start of the day because of the Koshi nightkill and my own thoughts on D1. I still have vivax as scum but im using the new information for my vote. However as there hasn't been anything contributed this day and we have a bunch of AFK's i would rather lynch one of those NOW. I haven't unvoted sergio yet. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
I'm surprised you group Vivax together with Sergio as "playing the game" but prplhz and Rels as not. I agree Sergio is contributing. The other three seem to have contributed about the same amount to the conversation, unless you count arguing over whether Kaley was a smurf or lightly townreading Kaley without reading. This may be true, I was interacting with vivax and he was in the thread earlier than the other two so in my mind he has been a more active participant. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On September 11 2018 23:53 KelsierSC wrote: Nothing is happening in D2, literally no one is posting. The only thing I have to work with is the Koshi night kill so I posted my thoughts on it, even asking for people to link me posts where koshi hinted at blue and I get called mafia and people saying "what the heck is this" I am voting sergio at the start of the day because of the Koshi nightkill and my own thoughts on D1. I still have vivax as scum but im using the new information for my vote. However as there hasn't been anything contributed this day and we have a bunch of AFK's i would rather lynch one of those NOW. I haven't unvoted sergio yet. Okay, my apologies for that comment. You are completely right, I shouldn't have said that. I was just a little surprised because you clearly took quite a bit of time to say almost exactly the same things I did. On September 11 2018 23:54 KelsierSC wrote: and why is HF a good N1 medic target? because he is the best player on the site and mafia usually tries to kill those people. This is also something I wasn't aware of; his first game seems to be ~2 years after I stopped following the site closely. As far as I'm concerned, Ver is still the best mafia player on the site. I am curious what statements from HolyFlare and Koshi you're relying on to vote Sergio. | ||
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