EPTIf this looks like a sheep and a massive contradiction to what i've been saying , that's because it is.
##Vote: Qatol
Newbie Student Mafia XXIX - Page 18
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
If this looks like a sheep and a massive contradiction to what i've been saying , that's because it is. ##Vote: Qatol | ||
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
On September 12 2018 01:12 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Oh shit lul | ||
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
On September 12 2018 01:13 Qatol wrote: rayn, I haven't forgotten you. I think you overstate your case a little bit, but you have a couple of good points. You've played enough games to know that people will sometimes vote for the person that was being accused by the night kill target. I can absolutely see a townie voting for Sergio based on Koshi's posts (even though I think Koshi's argument has fallen apart). I don't think he ever said he was voting Sergio based on HF's reads (though why isn't he looking at HF's reads more closely if he thinks HF is a better player than Koshi? just because of the night kill?) Easily your strongest point is this: I absolutely agree on this point and would like Kelsier to explain the logic behind this point. At the end of the day, everyone in this game signed up to play. If they are at all interested in playing more in the future, why wouldn't they try to dodge a modkill? This looks to me like a push to, at best (assuming proportional inactives between the mafia and town), to take a shot in the dark prayer, hoping to hit mafia. I would like to see Kelsier respond to some of these points before I vote him though. On a related point, I strongly disagree with anyone who thinks that lynching an inactive at this point is the best policy. We have no way to identify whether they are town or mafia whatsoever, except by process of elimination. Plus we know that at least someone from the mafia is participating in the game (or there wouldn't have been a night kill). The odds are simply not behind a blind shot in the dark. it's not a strong point and I already explained it. I voted sergio at the start of the day when I had my own feelings and some vote logic. However as the day has progressed circumstances changed and I decided to change my vote. So I voted someone I was planning on lynching and unvoted when I wasn't. If rayn had bothered to ask i'd have explained it then. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
Ok I think the early Kaley votes were stupid, I'd say people who went after Koshi D1 look ok since scum don't usually like to shoot into someone they're trying to mislynch. I really really want to feel good about Qatol but its been so long since I've seen him play or read any games with him.. Depending on how much time I have to read today before the cycle ends I may end up picking a Koshi read and sheeping that. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
On September 12 2018 01:17 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Game started Ok I think the early Kaley votes were stupid, I'd say people who went after Koshi D1 look ok since scum don't usually like to shoot into someone they're trying to mislynch. I really really want to feel good about Qatol but its been so long since I've seen him play or read any games with him.. Depending on how much time I have to read today before the cycle ends I may end up picking a Koshi read and sheeping that. You think the votes on the person who has flipped town were incorrect? wow you are some sort of mafia wizard. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
On September 12 2018 01:18 KelsierSC wrote: You think the votes on the person who has flipped town were incorrect? wow you are some sort of mafia wizard. Oh lol I must have missed the night post when I was skimming. Give me one second, I have an idea. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
Rels fits the profile for lurking scum for several reasons. Firstly he's active enough to avoid people hunting for inactives, secondly, he has a habit of calling lots of people town but in a very noncommittal manner. The biggest example of this is how he finds all three of Koshi, Sergio, and Rayn town: On September 08 2018 23:17 Rels wrote: Sergio is almost lock town for me rayn Koshi and KSC look town too I want to lynch Kaley This sticks out since all three were fighting with each other. Usually townies will get a gut feel that one guy is right shares that opinion but Rels is content to say "well they're all probably town." At the end of this post he also, without any real explanation, announces his intent to kill Kaley. It's not for another five hours until we get some reasoning and it's simply this: On September 09 2018 04:27 Rels wrote: During those 30 minutes I read the game. Sergio's angryness makes no sense as scum in my opinion. Kaley has chosen to play in a way that makes her very hard to read. Fair enough. But when pushed for it, she doubled down and did it more strongly. I can see this strategy coming more from scum (kinda like "they wouldn't believe scum would continue roleplaying in my position"). Could also come from stubborn town but for now she's the more likely to flip scum. His reasoning for lynching Kaley is that he/she was hard to read? That's just lazy town play, not scumhunting. Killing someone for roleplaying is a super low percentage policy lynch move which is both apathetic and ineffective as it gives no real information. But it sure is an easy position for a scum to hop on and defend bc they wanted to "punish poor town play." But folks our goal is to catch mafia, not punish bad townplay. I'm also really not a fan of Rels' final post: On September 09 2018 04:28 Rels wrote: rayn not interacting with me feels weird Why is it weird Rels? I fucking hate when players do this 'soft pressure' bullshit or whatever. Why is it weird? What were you expecting? Does this mean rayn is scum? All these questions would help substantiate this post if Rels was town, instead it feels like scum trying to signpost in case the town turns on rayn and Rels want credibility to jump on the bandwagon. Rels hasn't been active in three days and while I obviously am not someone who should be talking about activity (Sorry Kita!), it is still worth noting that mafia don't need a thread presence right now since town has been fairly good at killing themselves. Rels took a safe vote on a lynch gathering steam for incredibly weak reasons, does not provide concrete opinions on conflicts within the thread, instead preferring to hand wave them away as all likely town, and has made little marker posts which I usually associate with scum. Gonna go vote now ##Vote: Rels | ||
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Vivax
22245 Posts
MZ reconsider for a moment. What are the odds that Rels is lazy townie vs scum? What are the odds that Damdred is lazy townie? As townie at least you should have a partial interest into solving the game, so why does Rels at least show a bit of that (even though his arguments leave to wish for) contrary to Damdred while being more likely mafia in your eyes? One does a bit of stuff that looks like it can come from mafia but the other does something (pretend to be active and promise more activity) and then does nothing which is more likely to be mafia behaviour in my opinion. And Qatol my vote on RoL was a throwaway vote cause I didn't feel like voting kaley and pushing you wouldn't have felt right considering you were being an active player and also I wasn't feeling confident about you being mafia beyond the little I had expressed. I was unwilling to flesh out a scumread on you up until this day. Why RoL out of everyone? Pretty much for what prplhz said about him. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
In this case I will show that Vivax has shown out of game knowledge of alignments that could only come from scum. In post #89 Vivax explains a town read on Kaley that comes mostly “from the gut” while also trying to give real reasoning for it I.e. that Kaley is attacking Rayn. But in post #119 Vivax says that he isn’t sure if Kaley is genuinely pushing Rayn and that he hasn’t read her full post. Therefore the alignment read that Vivax had on Kaley didn’t come from an actual read but was instead manufactured by Vivax ## Vote: Vivax Somewhat tangentially I also believe that, assuming I’m right and Vivax is scum, the other two scum will be very in active as his claim of being role blocked is high reward/high risk as any counter claim would instantly put Vivax on the chopping block while a lack of one could lead towards a ‘confirmed town’ status for Vivax. Assuming a Scum!Vivax I believe the d3 lynch should be RoL since he is an inactive and Vivax put an inexplicable d1 vote on him. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
This vote (#285) strikes me as a pressure vote rather than scum trying to start a d2 mislynch though, there are other easier targets for an early d2 push given that the two flipped townies both town read me right before they flipped. I think scum would be more aware of that and your follow up posts on the vote suggest an attempt at pressuring me to read my alignment rather than a true attempt to get a mislynch. Kelsier stays in the town column for me, I especially like his post #304 it lays out a very townie thought process. His mindset makes sense coming from town and in a game with this few active players I am strongly opposed to a lynch on one then then who is making good posts. Also, although it isn’t a great heuristic, Kelsier has a three page filter in a 16 page game which indicates to me that he is involved in the day to day going’s on in the thread. | ||
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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
Just consolidate votes because right now mafia just vote on whichever rando target isnt them and this lynch is a crap shoot. HF and Koshi both had Qatol as scum, looking at the night kills koshi is a great one for qatol to make but he didnt count on hf being shot. it's a genuinely solid lynch and should be a good one. The AFK lynch is a crap shoot and any votes there are bad and make you instantly scummy, any "reason" for rels or damdred or RoL or prpl at this point is sort shitty. You can pick another person if you legitimately make a good case on them, fuck you can think rayn is right and vote me I wont give a shit just dont vote on an AFK and peace out. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
I think what you meant was that no pushback = town!kaley which is a fine argument to make but your post still gives me the heebie-jeebies and I just can’t explain why. Qatol’s post #286 shows that he successfully read Koshi as blue d1. Given that Koshi was pushing two townies, HF and myself, as red for most of n1 I can’t think of another reason for scum to kill Koshi besides his role. (I can’t expect any of you to share my read of this necessarily at this point since I haven’t flipped but you’ll have to trust me on this or return to it after I flip). Based on my gut feelings and this potential scum slip Qatol is second priority for the lynch. Though his push on Vivax has me going back and forth in my head since I happen to think Vivax is scummier than Qatol and I do not think they are scum together since I believe that Vivax’s RB claim is too high risk for a scum team with multiple active members in this town. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On September 12 2018 00:45 Vivax wrote: I already think we should lynch Damdred for the empty promise. You aren't here on D1? Okay. But you are here on D2 and then you deliver an empty promise? That's not ok. You should usually be capable of doing at least a tiny little bit more as town. And I know you tend to give yourself away as mafia with posts that contain a lot of things that superficially look good and in depth turn out to be extremely inconsistent with each other. Maybe you know that, maybe you avoid posting for that reason. Either way, as town you usually have the drive to put out at least a minimum of thoughts when you say you would. So for me, you wander right into scum pile with the little I have read and think you should be today's lynch. ##Vote Damdred I like you and I think Damdred is more likely to get lynched today. ##Unvote ##Vote Damdred | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
Please provide the reasoning you had for reading Koshi as town, I am still interested in hearing your thoughts. As to Kelsier’s push on me rather than Vivax that you reference in #308 I think it’s clearly a pressure vote rather than a lynch vote. He isn’t pushing my lynch at all, he is discussing it in such a way that appears to be attempting to illicit a reaction from me. Considering his actions from a townie perspective and they follow an internal logic, considering his actions from a scum perspective and they don’t. I don’t like this post by Rayn or his d2 push on Kelsier. I don’t think Rayn is good lynch today but if he survives into d3 I’ll need to reconsider. Again though if Vivax is scum I have a hard time seeing Rayn as his partner. | ||
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
On his own he is my third in line for the lynch. Though the Prplhz sheep of Vivax makes me uncomfortable I still think Damdred looks scummy on his own. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On September 12 2018 04:29 Sergiovan wrote: Damdred: I would be content with a Damdred lynch. He appeared in the thread promised to be useful and then hasn’t reappeared. On his own he is my third in line for the lynch. Though the Prplhz sheep of Vivax makes me uncomfortable I still think Damdred looks scummy on his own. So Vivax is voting for Damdred and you are voting for Vivax. However, you would be comfortable with a Damdred. That is if it weren't for the fact that now I am voting for him. Shouldn't the vote of your biggest scum read deter you more than my vote? | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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Sergiovan
90 Posts
Damdred is scummy on his own. He is third in line for lynch in my mind. I also didn’t like how you sheeped Vivax. Those are unrelated thoughts. You’ll note that I’m not pushing a Damdred lynch because he isn’t my top scum read. | ||
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