EPTNewbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 58
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_MexicanAlien
South Africa193 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
On January 30 2016 00:48 nooniansoong wrote: I got him to recant his slander.Why can't a town agree with a scum's case?To be fair I don't think he realized that. When you come into the thread after the fact and start filtering people, it's hard to know when people are saying things. Tumble didn't vote for somone we now know is town. I can see why ikid would think that was town.onegu doesn't have much else to look at no 1. Ok, I read the interaction. 2. I mean i guess a town could. Idk to me it is weird 3. I disagree, then again i guess he could be explain by the fact he is a newbie. 4. He could of looked at Onegu interacting with me and or anything really from early d1 5. Yes.(i can play this game too) | ||
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Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
It might just be a conrisdience that i found. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
On January 29 2016 11:52 Shapelog wrote: Things to do tomorrow that i prob. won't end up doing: Close read Tumble filter, Look at Eden (like someone said we let him be lazy) Investagte trofl scum [Strike]Post reasons why i think Ikido is mafia (or town if by a miracle he convinces me)[/Strike] Going to move on (since Ikido is asleep) and close read Tumble's filter. | ||
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I hadn't thought about Ikidomari that way. I'll need to spend some more time trying to figure him out. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On January 29 2016 13:19 Eden1892 wrote: Two separate issues. I tried to fix one through the other, evidently that didn't work.Also, I'm going to elaborate on what I mean by newer mafia tending to post in the way that Ikidomari did. I cited something from Ver's analysis of Mafia XXX in discussing his post, but I don't think anybody bothered to go read it. I suppose I can't blame you if you didn't bother to go look yourself, but now I'm posting it so you have no excuse. + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote: Day 1 Analysis: Basically I'll point out the posts that are great for analysis, either finding reds or greens. In doing analysis most posts will be worthless, it's the gems you want to search for unless you want to do a full analysis profile on that person (dragging up all their posts and looking in context for patterns). That unfortunately takes a lot of time and thus can only be done on a few people at a time. Thus for those stretched on time, it's much easier to look for mistakes/bad posts and then do a thorough inspection of said person. That's how I'll present the red analysis. Misder : Here is a great example of a mafia slipping up very obviously in day 1. These are two posts full of flagrant errors. This is the first easy mafia catch the town could've had; let's go through it: -Note the multiple apologies, excuses, the specific mention that he is still learning, and overall meek tone. Newer mafia players will try to emphasize their inexperience as a way of overcompensating. Think about this from the angle of being a townie: why would you want to say all this? What's the point in painting yourself to be some noob who is useless and shouldn't be listened to? If you want to be of use to the town, apologizing a bunch and acting all sorry for doing nothing wrong is hardly going to make yourself listened to. In fact, it will make people ignore you instead. Someone who can't even convince themself is hardly going to convince anyone else. That would be great for a mafia who wants to hide though, wouldn't it? On that angle it makes perfect sense from the mafia's perspective. You want to find reasons that make you look less suspicious without looking like you are trying too hard to do so. See how Misder isn't even suspicious before this but he's trying to make himself look less suspicious. That's entirely mafia rationale. A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar. It's a very common pattern that I've seen many, many times. [[Redacted from post; paragraph was a separate argument against Misder that is irrelevant to Ikidomari.]] -Lastly, dock another point against Misder for his extremely mild statements about his suspicions and refusal to vote. Why would voting be impulsive? Bolded for relevance. This is a very common tell for newer mafia players that's been generally true since the dawn of online mafia. You're welcome to disagree that these behaviors make him more likely than null to be mafia, or to think that this behavior is NAI, or what have you, but your opinion flies in the face of actual years of recorded evidence to the contrary. In light of that, Trfel, I still do not understand what you struggle to see in my case, and I certainly do not understand why you felt the need to submit your concern with my case as this apparent grand enigma that makes you unable to understand what I'm doing this game. Such massive overstating of a simple difference of opinion as you "not being able to understand where [I'm] coming from this game," especially when I cite my publicly-viewable source of my tell for you to read, makes me suspicious of you -- you just look like you're trying to paint my argument as this completely unreasonable push and discredit my play this game for it, which sits very poorly with me. Your read seems to be based on two main arguments:
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I don't think I would lynch Ikidomari at this point. The new reads list really cleaned up a lot of issues I had, but it didn't seem forced or anything. Also liked the discussion with noon. I think I would not lynch these people at this point: PepperMintTea Alur darthfoley Ikidomari _MexicanAlien Shapelog I would consider lynching these people, but would need a good reason: nooniansoong And I think these people are good lynches right now: Tumblewood JesusIncarnate Trfel Onegu Notably, I would not lynch Trfel and Onegu, and think Trfel would be a better lynch than Onegu. Onegu wasn't doing much to be very "try-hard" or useful before his oog circumstances took over, and those two can't be mafia together. noon hasn't really done all that much lately and it's starting to bother me a bit. he's still probably town, but I moved him out of my 'unlynchable' pile. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
On January 27 2016 11:30 Tumblewood wrote: Read over the thread, and these are my reads so far: Town: (none yet) Leaning Town: Alur, Trfel Null: PepperMintTea, nooniansong, Onegu Leaning Scum: darthfoley, _MexicanAlien Scum: Shapelog My reasoning on Shapelog: Shapelog has acted generally like a newbie scum player all game. He started the game off with about five jokes and no content. Given that this is day 1, that's not too important. I'm not sure how to feel on the weird read toward nooniansong, because it doesn't necessarily feel scummy or townie, just poorly informed. But the posts that really strike me are: and In both of them, he mentions something about not being scum. Why would a townie ever do that? Why would anyone ever do that? "Unless your scum team kills me," and, "Yet to roll mafia sadly," are things normal townies don't just drop. It just screams to me, "Oh boy, what a shame I'm not mafia!" Also, "I am always Sus. on my D1's" doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but I haven't played with Shapelog before. First post Tumble makes is a List roughly 3-5 hours of the game starting. Nothing inherently bad with making the list, though with it being early in the game it would bond to change in a few hour or two. Still can see someone who comes back to the thread for the 1st doing it. Next thing he does is scum me, Which is actually NAI to me. As mafia would done it since i was the easiest person to scum and would be a good way enter the thread. And as Town since my plays were Anti-Townie. His reasons though behind scumming me though is where I have problems with. It felt like when I first read it that he seemed desperate to scum read me. It is very board, as He says it just like how he thought a newbie player would play. But also very nicpicky at the same time, as he questions why i would ever say something about not being scum and why does a towny do that. And that is the problem, he is all over in the read. He isn't concern about one problem, more like listing all the possible things that could me scum in order to purhapes mislynch me? Also it is funny that his little caption thingy is "Being bad isn't suspicious if that's how I always am" and he scum reads me for saying i am always sus. D1. I know this is unrelated, but it is very funny to me. Then he says he would switch Onegu and Trofl around. Nothing goes off in my head. Then: On January 27 2016 12:50 Tumblewood wrote: and are the relevant posts. I noted these-- the reason for my slight scum read on him-- because of this too. Especially the second one: It's such a nothing post (says nothing of value) and directly alludes to himself being town. The wording is also really weird, too; it almost looks like breadcrumbing but it doesn't say anything. "I can answer your queries without having to worry about scum slipping" is such a weird and unhelpful thing to say that it sounds like an eight-year-old with a good vocabulary was saying it. I do not like the fact he read it on a level on which it he got a "breadcrumbing" feeling from it. That really is sus. to me, Like why is he even considering Bread Crumbs? Also he is scum leaning Darth for the same crap he is scum reading me basically, but I am Scum and Darth is scum lean? Also a lot of his reasoning to lean Darth came from him being a unhelpful town, just sounds opportunistic to me. [QUOTE]On January 28 2016 01:31 Tumblewood wrote: TL;DR I was gone for a while and now I'm trying to catch up. Shapelog still reads scum to me, Onegu and Trfel also look scum to me, Eden, Alur, MexicanAlien look town. I need to read through this again and see what everyone else did because it's sort of lame having null / very weak reads on 6/12 other players.[/QUOTE] Great at expanding on why he things people are mafia in this post. But 2 sentences max about reasons to town read people he didn't scum. He also has 1/2 of the other people in the game as Null/weak reads. I think a Townie would of been able to have more reads. While a Scum (specially a newbie) would have a harder time reading people. Then Trofl asked for a more detailed read and he responds with his post and this pop out: [QUOTE] which reaffirms Alur as town. He's the only one I see in this game making a concerted effort to find scum, besides my other two townreads. I'll be gone for about an hour, stay tuned for my explanation on Eden and darthfoley as town.[/QUOTE] I just don't like how he didn't post at least a small little reason why he is towning them (like maybe a paragraph?) This might be me just nickpicking but he could of done something more. (Tinfoil power says he went with the most popular people as town and easy mislynch bait for scum. Without really being able to town them and he needed time.) So he comes back and whats the first thing he posts? the reads? No, a reason to scum read me. And it is Just like the first one, Board and nickpicky. And i have the same problem with it. Then the rest is him leading up to lynch Jesus basically. [QUOTE]On January 28 2016 14:50 Tumblewood wrote: @Ikidomari: That was not the reasoning behind my changes of opinion. I read too much into the early, early posts and found myself having to backtrack to have opinions that made sense later in the game. I agree for the most part on your other reads, but I'm not quite following what you said on Trfel; it seems like you're saying he both jumped on and started the lynch bandwagon. Could you clarify? ##Vote JesusIncarnate unless I see something that convinces me he's town.[/QUOTE] Hell he never directly says he isn't scum reading me or anything So WHY, if i was his main suspect, did he end up voting for jesus? That makes no logical fucking sense what so ever. It clearly shows him being opportunistic on his scum reads. How does end up voting for jesus when I am his scum read. And he allows himself to get out of the vote because of the bolded line. Let say jesus posts something towny, then Tumble has a way out and can just push me or another person. Or just hop on a wagon. The only reason why he wasn't opportunist for Kura was because he wasn't here b/4 the slip. He prob. would of jumped on it. I think he is a opportunistic scum. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
On January 28 2016 14:50 Tumblewood wrote: @Ikidomari: That was not the reasoning behind my changes of opinion. I read too much into the early, early posts and found myself having to backtrack to have opinions that made sense later in the game. I agree for the most part on your other reads, but I'm not quite following what you said on Trfel; it seems like you're saying he both jumped on and started the lynch bandwagon. Could you clarify? ##Vote JesusIncarnate unless I see something that convinces me he's town. Hell he never directly says he isn't scum reading me or anything So WHY, if i was his main suspect, did he end up voting for jesus? That makes no logical fucking sense what so ever. It clearly shows him being opportunistic on his scum reads. How does end up voting for jesus when I am his scum read. And he allows himself to get out of the vote because of the bolded line. Let say jesus posts something towny, then Tumble has a way out and can just push me or another person. Or just hop on a wagon. The only reason why he wasn't opportunist for Kura was because he wasn't here b/4 the slip. He prob. would of jumped on it. I think he is a opportunistic scum. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On January 30 2016 02:50 Eden1892 wrote: Possible he just saw that it did him no favors to state his reads so passively and gave us the same thing with more definition. Or that he read new material and became more confident in his results. idk. I don't think I would lynch Ikidomari at this point. The new reads list really cleaned up a lot of issues I had, but it didn't seem forced or anything. Also liked the discussion with noon. I think I would not lynch these people at this point: PepperMintTea Alur darthfoley Ikidomari _MexicanAlien Shapelog I would consider lynching these people, but would need a good reason: nooniansoong And I think these people are good lynches right now: Tumblewood JesusIncarnate Trfel Onegu Notably, I would not lynch Trfel and Onegu, and think Trfel would be a better lynch than Onegu. Onegu wasn't doing much to be very "try-hard" or useful before his oog circumstances took over, and those two can't be mafia together. noon hasn't really done all that much lately and it's starting to bother me a bit. he's still probably town, but I moved him out of my 'unlynchable' pile. I generally agree: Wouldn't consider lynching right now: Alur MexicanAlien Eden PMT Would consider, probably not my first targets: Noon Shapelog Ikidomari Onegu (?) Probable lynches: JesusIncarnate Tumblewood Trfel | ||
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Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Eden, you're really confusing me, I was much more okay with Ikidomari before his latest list post.... Anyway, are we so sure that PepperMintTea is town? I had a very strong town read early, but I worry that they have fallen off and have been in the background. Despite pointing out interesting things. I'll be filter diving. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
On January 30 2016 03:13 Trfel wrote: Anyway, are we so sure that PepperMintTea is town? I had a very strong town read early, but I worry that they have fallen off and have been in the background. Despite pointing out interesting things. I'll be filter diving. She never answer/explain why she voted for Kura. She even came on afterwards of my VCA. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On January 29 2016 17:59 PepperMintTea wrote: I don't have anything to say until day starts so just going to read and then get to work. Don't like the vibe from this tbh. You really don't have anything to say about me scum reading Shapelog or Trfel? Or about MexicanAlien or Shapelog scumreading Trfel? Or Ikidomari's or Tumblewood's list posts? I think there are always things to talk about as town. | ||
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Alur
Denmark3900 Posts
This means that the list doesn't take into account the last page or so. I'm happy to elaborate on anything. Reads list: Good chance of being town: Darthfoley – I like his reasons/timing for voting to lynch the best. To me his filter also conveys being interested and paying attention to ongoing discussions.. Townlean: Mexican – Seems lynch oriented, and stuck with his lynchvote even when the bandwagon on Kura hadn't matured. Admittedly has both towny and slightly scummy posts. Noon – Looking back at it, he played well during the Kura lynch. He's also reasonably inquisitive. He's also scumread a fuckton of people, and I think being inherently paranoid is a town trait. But I feel like a tinfoil case for TMI can be made (regarding how he handled the lynch). Null: Onegu – I don't think his day 1 was overwhelmingly scummy or towny, he has explaining to do because of his absense. Note: He just got lynched in the other game he was playing, so I think we can expect more effort and activity from him. Shapelog – I was going to townread him just based on my overall impression of him by reading the thread. But looking at his filter, I'm finding it hard to do in good conscience, because of how reckless he is, like I really don't think he's providing the town with that much. He's alluded to the fact that his play is going to change as the game goes on, I guess I wouldn't mind seeing that. But if you put a gun to my head I'd say town. Eden - He's made cases, the cases seemed reasonably logical, even if I find him overzealous at times that could just be pressuring. Not sure what to make of his pulling back on reads. Aswell as his lastminute joining the bandwagon into saying “Don't feel bad, twas' a reasonable lynch”, could be trying to blend in. But gutwise he might be town. PepperMintTea – (Had a hard time placing this one) Her type of posting activity strikes me as suspicious, same with her history behind her vote. Also not having anything at all to say after a mislynch where you're the third to vote also seems odd. Admittedly her day 1 filter says quite a few things that make sense, case in point #723 Tumblewood – He's the player I feel I know the least about by just casually having read the thread. And reading his filter doesn't give me strong feelings one way or the other. If we were to move on him I would have a hard time formulating a case (as of right now). Scumlean: JesusIncarnate – Coming out cocky while saying close to nothing, followed by making promises he doesn't keep. Can't possibly be the mafia grandmaster he claimed to be. Ikidomari – Arguably attempting to guilt town out of lynching. Overall I thought his defense was quite weak. His night post with reads didn't do enough for me. Probably scum: Trfel – I really think his posting reveals that he is not motivated to read the thread (See the two instances where I called him out for questions I didn't like). He seems out of touch with general town sentiments (See his bizarre hesitation on the day 1 lynch). He's also the player, that when townread on day 1 (which happened a few times), was townread with the least reasoning behind it (imo). NOTE!: It seems very improbable that my 3 most scummy reads are all scum. For example Ikidomari parked his vote on jesus, while also scumreading Trfel. There almost has to be scum in my null/town reads. | ||
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