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On January 29 2016 13:19 Eden1892 wrote:Also, I'm going to elaborate on what I mean by newer mafia tending to post in the way that Ikidomari did. I cited something from Ver's analysis of Mafia XXX in discussing his post, but I don't think anybody bothered to go read it. I suppose I can't blame you if you didn't bother to go look yourself, but now I'm posting it so you have no excuse. + Show Spoiler +On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote:
Day 1 Analysis: Basically I'll point out the posts that are great for analysis, either finding reds or greens. In doing analysis most posts will be worthless, it's the gems you want to search for unless you want to do a full analysis profile on that person (dragging up all their posts and looking in context for patterns). That unfortunately takes a lot of time and thus can only be done on a few people at a time. Thus for those stretched on time, it's much easier to look for mistakes/bad posts and then do a thorough inspection of said person. That's how I'll present the red analysis. Misder : Here is a great example of a mafia slipping up very obviously in day 1. Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 13:13 Misder wrote:@Divenek I'll try to be as active as possible. I was better during the end of that last mafia game. At least I was right for my lynching targets  I'm not used to being active early game, so lets try this out. From my last two games, it seemed like we always tried to vote for inactives, except for the XXIII where town voted for a one liner mistake. We shouldn't do that. Because just because you make one mistake early doesn't mean you are mafia, just more likely. We should always be suspicious, but not impulsive. And the other game was where we had to vote for a mayor and a pardoner, so people had to talk. As for strategies in the beginning... no idea. I'm still learning, (I still haven't done what you told me to do BC sorry!) Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 15:45 Misder wrote:xD I'm sorry! I'll try to post better, but for me, it's hard to post in the beginning of the game... Vote count is: (3) Bill Murray (1) Divinek (1) Misder (1) Chezinu (1) Youngminii On August 06 2010 14:40 larjarse wrote:BillMurray, right after he got his two "random" votes against him wrote:
I proclaim the Random Voting Stage hereby dead.
I am voting not for randomness, An obvious reason to stick with my vote. This leaves my suspicions on BM. If everyone randomized, BM would be more likely to get a higher vote count (due to already having 2 votes on him). I'm not voting yet though; don't want to be impulsive... These are two posts full of flagrant errors. This is the first easy mafia catch the town could've had; let's go through it: -Note the multiple apologies, excuses, the specific mention that he is still learning, and overall meek tone. Newer mafia players will try to emphasize their inexperience as a way of overcompensating. Think about this from the angle of being a townie: why would you want to say all this? What's the point in painting yourself to be some noob who is useless and shouldn't be listened to? If you want to be of use to the town, apologizing a bunch and acting all sorry for doing nothing wrong is hardly going to make yourself listened to. In fact, it will make people ignore you instead. Someone who can't even convince themself is hardly going to convince anyone else. That would be great for a mafia who wants to hide though, wouldn't it?On that angle it makes perfect sense from the mafia's perspective. You want to find reasons that make you look less suspicious without looking like you are trying too hard to do so. See how Misder isn't even suspicious before this but he's trying to make himself look less suspicious. That's entirely mafia rationale. A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar. It's a very common pattern that I've seen many, many times. [[Redacted from post; paragraph was a separate argument against Misder that is irrelevant to Ikidomari.]]
-Lastly, dock another point against Misder for his extremely mild statements about his suspicions and refusal to vote. Why would voting be impulsive?
Bolded for relevance. This is a very common tell for newer mafia players that's been generally true since the dawn of online mafia. You're welcome to disagree that these behaviors make him more likely than null to be mafia, or to think that this behavior is NAI, or what have you, but your opinion flies in the face of actual years of recorded evidence to the contrary. In light of that, Trfel, I still do not understand what you struggle to see in my case, and I certainly do not understand why you felt the need to submit your concern with my case as this apparent grand enigma that makes you unable to understand what I'm doing this game. Such massive overstating of a simple difference of opinion as you "not being able to understand where [I'm] coming from this game," especially when I cite my publicly-viewable source of my tell for you to read, makes me suspicious of you -- you just look like you're trying to paint my argument as this completely unreasonable push and discredit my play this game for it, which sits very poorly with me.
I read that before I started playing forum mafia and I agree with you. The main reason I wasn't in favor of Ikido D1 is because I was relatively confident that Kuragari was going to flip scum. I am more than open to lynching him D2 if he doesn't do anything to change my mind
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On January 29 2016 11:42 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 11:37 Shapelog wrote:On January 29 2016 11:33 Trfel wrote:On January 29 2016 11:27 darthfoley wrote:On January 29 2016 10:22 Trfel wrote:
I mean, don't blame me that you didn't want to lynch mafia. That's on you. We didn't want to lynch mafia? Lol. If you were so adamant against him, why would you just say fuck it and join the wagon? I was scumreading him, so I'm not sure what you're saying? It's just extremely frustrating that everyone is blaming me for the mislynch, when I'm pretty sure that Tumblewood is mafia. Yes, I messed up. But in addition to messing up, I wanted to lynch Tumblewood the entire time, and it was clear that people weren't willing to do so. And now, some of the same people are saying that I defended Tumblewood by lynching Kuragari42. It's not relevant, just very, very annoying. I am not blaming you for the mislynch, Nor do i think you defended Tumbleweed since he wasn't even getting voted by a lot of people. It is weird to me that a player of your skill and playstyle (question based) did not push Kura to give more info about his reads at the time. WHILE you apparently sat by waiting for the lynch. This is the last I'll say about this. My playstyle is not a question based playstyle. My playstyle is non-interactive do analysis and post reads every night while no one else is awake. But that's not fun, so I've been trying to change it. I have been extremely busy all day. I don't have time to make reads on people and go around asking questions to gain information. This is why I spent additional time last night trying to figure things out (I stayed up until something like 4 or 5 am voluntarily last night just because I knew I wouldn't have much time at all afterwards). It's also extremely frustrating when I know that someone is mafia but I can't get anyone to listen, and everyone just calls me stupid instead. Which really kills my motivation to try and carefully figure things out, or try and force a lynch on my target through when everyone is just calling me stupid.
You stayed up that late partially because your roommate locked you out. You aren't some info martyr lol. Last part of this seems like a classic OMGUS so i'm going to check out when it matters (aka votes)
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On January 29 2016 11:52 Shapelog wrote:
Things to do tomorrow that i prob. won't end up doing:
Close read Tumble filter,
Look at Eden (like someone said we let him be lazy)
Investagte trofl scum
Post reasons why i think Ikido is mafia (or town if by a miracle he convinces me)
fixed.
Why do you feel the need to look at Eden when you just posted about how confident you were that his Kuragari vote was a town tell? He was #2 on your 6 person list in terms of towniness.
This post is lol
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Incase anyone is wondering where my post is, I've been working non-stop, didn't even take a lunch break today. Writing this as I grab a coffee
Expect a solid post from me ~2-3 hours from now, I've had a lot of time to think over what's been said and draw some conclusions.
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How are you the type of person that watches all the vods of "the town" mafia event, spends too much time on 4chan and TL, but your IRL schedule is so insanely packed.
Of all the newbies you and me have the most similar mafia experience, but I'm finding it increasingly difficult to relate to you.
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I don't have anything to say until day starts so just going to read and then get to work.
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On January 29 2016 17:53 Alur wrote:
How are you the type of person that watches all the vods of "the town" mafia event, spends too much time on 4chan and TL, but your IRL schedule is so insanely packed.
Of all the newbies you and me have the most similar mafia experience, but I'm finding it increasingly difficult to relate to you.
Quite simple really, over the late november - early january period I was working 3-4 days a week, now I'm working 5-6 days a week, and haven't cut down on the amount of social events.
Typically on a lunch break I'll watch a stream or some VODs, or browse /vg/ if there's nothing I want to watch.
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On January 29 2016 18:16 Ikidomari wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 17:53 Alur wrote:
How are you the type of person that watches all the vods of "the town" mafia event, spends too much time on 4chan and TL, but your IRL schedule is so insanely packed.
Of all the newbies you and me have the most similar mafia experience, but I'm finding it increasingly difficult to relate to you. Quite simple really, over the late november - early january period I was working 3-4 days a week, now I'm working 5-6 days a week, and haven't cut down on the amount of social events. Typically on a lunch break I'll watch a stream or some VODs, or browse /vg/ if there's nothing I want to watch.
Ok. Looking forward to your take on the game.
I will be afk for 5-6 hours. Speaking of 5-6 hours. Jesusincarnate complete failed to deliver on his promise.
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I'm mostly done with my analysis, I've got 4.5 out of 12 reads to go. should be up within the hour unless dinner interrupts.
this is taking longer than I thought to type everything up.
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On January 29 2016 19:10 Ikidomari wrote:
I'm mostly done with my analysis, I've got 4.5 out of 12reads to go. should be up within the hour unless dinner interrupts.
this is taking longer than I thought to type everything up.
We don't care about your reads on yourself or Kuragari42. We want to hear your reads on up to 11 players.
Ok I'm actually leaving now.
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On January 29 2016 19:14 Alur wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 19:10 Ikidomari wrote:
I'm mostly done with my analysis, I've got 4.5 out of 12reads to go. should be up within the hour unless dinner interrupts.
this is taking longer than I thought to type everything up. We don't care about your reads on yourself or Kuragari42. We want to hear your reads on up to 11 players. Ok I'm actually leaving now.
I did 12 reads, there are 13 players, I obviously didn't read myself.
I did a very short (like one sentence) read on Kura for the hell of it.
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I post explanations for some of my reads...
Anyway tumblewood looks Scummy and I haven't even read his latest post yet. He's Scummy for simply how and when he's posting.
Infrequent long posts not during eod.
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Alright here's what I got regarding the votes
Peppermint Tea
Vote Kura, Vote Onegu, Vote Kura.
Total Votes: 3
TumbleWood (I just now noticed it's wood, not weed)
Vote Jesus
Total Votes: 1
+ Show Spoiler +"Vote Jesus unless he posts something to convince me he's town"- Jesus posts nothing to convince anyone he's town, tumble is clean and followed through on what he said, didn't join in any other bandwagoning. This points to town based purely on voting patterns.
JesusIncarnate
Didn't vote. Hasn't posted in over 15 hours, Last post was 300 posts earlier. He did say he would be busy with real life shit until Friday, he doesn't have a country associated with his TL account, so I don't know if Friday is today for him, or tomorrow. I still think he's scum, and I don't regret my vote on him. Unless he posts something really good in the next day, or someone else slips up real bad, my vote is staying with Jesus.
Alur
Vote: Kuragi
Total Votes: 1
+ Show Spoiler +Post 435, Alur says he disagrees with people townreading kuragi
Post 504, Alur calls out kuragi for being scummy
Post 533, Alur says his main scum reads are Kuragi and Trfel
Post 538, Alur explains why he's scumreading Kuragi
Post 545, Alur further explains scumreading Kuragi
Post 573, Alur Votes for Kuragi
Post 767, Alur Says he voted Kuragi because it was the only scumread that he personally thought of himself, and wasn't influenced by other players.
Alur has stuck by his guns the entire time, he was confident in his read, and gave kuragi a chance to defend himself in later posts, which kuragi failed to do. Alur is TOWN
Kuragari
Seems pointless to read into him too much, but anyway here it is.
Votes: Tumblewood
Total Votes: 1
+ Show Spoiler +In one of his posts kuragari said tumble was "slight scum" then eventually voted for him. nothing really interesting that caught my eye, I think the guy just wasn't that invested in this game
DarthFoley
Votes: Kuragari, TumbleWood, Jesus, Kuragari.
Total Votes: 4
+ Show Spoiler +Foley's scum read of Kuragari was highly influenced by Alur's reads - post 537
Foley says he's considering voting Kura - 551
"the only people I'm comfortable voting are tumble and kuragari" - 560
Votes Kura - 574
Kuragari does nothing to defend himself, Trfel posts a read on tumble, DarthFoley immediately loves it, votes for tumble shortly after - 627, 630
DarthFoley makes his own analysis on JesusIncarnate, Votes Jesus Shortly after - 662, 663
Kuragari "slips" as doc, Foley is on it, Revotes Kuragari, 798, 800
All of Darth's votes were relevant to what was going on in the thread at the time, he made his own reads multiple times, all of his flips were justified in my opinion, and he consistently voted on who he thought was scummiest at the time
Foley is TOWN
nooniansoong
Votes: PeppermintTea, Onegu, JesusIncarnate.
Total Votes: 3
+ Show Spoiler +Noon votes for peppermint simply because "I can't understand her reads", even though she explained her reads fairly well, I believe that she believes her reads. Posts 258, 260, 262, 267. Vote happened on 272. very early on
Unvotes because PMT made a good read, Is now very confident in her read, votes Onegu because of PMT
Noon makes a slight scum read on Jesus, Simply because Jesus calls Eden "stupid" and then Jesus says "Eden is u[ in the Air"- 519, again in 623
Votes Jesus in 646
Even though I agree with Noon's read on Jesus, I think his reasoning is weak, and he was just looking for someone to vote for.
Another thing I'd like to point out, Jesus points out that "FYI, Mafia doesn't know the setup" - 268, even though it is clarified in Post#2 by LoneMeow that Mafia WILL know the setup.
I think this is scummy as hell, it would be SO easy for a Mafia player to pretend they don't know the setup, and then get townread for not knowing that mafia know the setup.
this may be WIFOM but Noon seems scummy as hell for me.
Nooniansoong: SCUM
Trfel
Votes: Onegu, Kuraragi, TumbleWood
Total Votes: 3
+ Show Spoiler +
Trfel jokingly calls Onegu Mafia - 184
Trfel questions Onegu heavily throughout the thread, explains that He thinks Onegu is scum because Onegu isn't interested in finding scum, only in 'appearing useful'
Trfel says he was mistaken about Onegu, needs to reevaluate
Trfel Jumps on the Tumblewood Bandwagon, Unvotes Onegu, "embarrassed about newbies getting better scum reads than him" - 563, 571
This screams scummy as hell to me. I not only think that Trfel is Scum, I think that Trfel and Onegu are scum together, and this is a case of "I'm going to put some light pressure on you so people don't think we're teamed up, and then I'm going to jump off your case when there's a better target to reduce suspicion of us"
Trfel slightly defends kuragari in 540
Alur slightly sways Trfel towards Kuragari Scum in 546
Trfel thinks Alur is slightly scummy, at the same time that Alur read Himself (Trfel) as scum, and Onegu as slightly scummy - 722
Trfel says to not lynch kuragari - 866
Trfel realizes that Kuragari is most likely going to be lynched, jumps on the bandwagon for weak reasons- "I was misinterpreting the situation" - 869
Trfel is one of my top SCUM reads. Onegu is up there too, I'll get to that soon.
Onegu
Votes: No-one
Total Votes: 0
+ Show Spoiler +Onegu called out Trfel Scum for only asking questions, confirms it a couple times- 341, 396, 461, 511, 520, Onegu continues to talk to Trfel but doesn't give any more evidence on why he's reading scum so strongly, just keeps saying "you are scum"
this serves purpose to make it seem like onegu and trfel aren't scum together, without actually putting any dirt on Trfel.
this is scummy as hell. Onegu is SCUM.
Unfortunately his kid's in hospital, so he's been a lot less active, and I don't have much else to read into. He's been very short and defensive with other players.
Onegu didn't vote because of his kid in hospital, so I can't read into his votes unfortunately, I assume he would have voted Trfel since there was basically zero chance of Trfel getting lynched anyway, and it would make his story seem more solid.
I genuinely hope his kid is okay, and he's able to rejoin the game soon, but for now I reinforce
ONEGU IS SCUM
MexicanAlien
Votes: Ikidomari, Tumblewood
Total Votes: 2
+ Show Spoiler +Mexican's read on me had a lot of good points, he came up with most of those points himself. He's doing a good job as town, 711, 712
he also calls me out for poor plays in 694, 698
Mexican gets more interested in tumblewood than me, agrees with other player's analysis, swaps his vote to tumble
693, 751, 752, 766, finally votes tumble on 768
Mexican Correctly chose to not lynch town, and voted on who he thought was most scummy at the time, while I don't agree with his reads (obviously), his posts scream town.
Mexican is TOWN
Eden
Votes: Onegu, Trfel, Ikidomari, Unvote / Revote Ikidomari,
Total Votes: 4
+ Show Spoiler +Eden has been one of the most active towns throughout the game, I sincerely believe that he is town due to the sheer amount of content he's posted. I'm not going to list it all here, but if you ask me I'll put in the effort and pick out posts.
His first vote for Onegu seemed to be in a joking manner, telling onegu to drop his tough guy act and play mafia (encouraging town to be more active, or forcing mafia to put in more effort)
in post #589 Eden posts his own reasoning and a good analysis on why he's going to vote for Trfel, then promptly does so, this is a good post and a solid read / vote in my opinion.
Then there's the whole debacle with me appearing scum as hell, eden is very fast to call me out for being scummy, and put on a lot of pressure.
Eden is playing extremely town, and deserves credit for it.
Eden is TOWN.
Shapelog
Votes: PMT, Onegu, Ikidomari, Kuragari
Total Votes: 4
+ Show Spoiler +
Posts a very large post on PMT, several original ideas regarding her being scum, promptly votes- 278
Onegu pushes shape, shape pushes back, calls out onegu for not wanting to solve the game (a fair analysis in my opinion), says he considers onegu more scummy than PMT, votes Onegu.- 416
votes me for obvious reasons, posts a few ideas on why he thinks i'm scummy / teamed up with darth / eden (who gave me a backdoor out) - 769, 782
Shape then reads other people's reasoning behind Kuragai Scum, and sides with them, trusting that if I'm scum I'll slip up and get lynched a day or 2 later.
My honest opinion is that shape is a weak town, his posting is all over the place, he seems to trust other's opinions more than his own, but I don't think he's mafia because of that.
Shape is TOWN, But i'll be paying a lot closer attention to his posts in future, I could easily switch between scum or town on this one.
That's my thoughts on everyone, feel free to call me out, question me further, whatever.
TL;DR
there is no TLDR, this is mafia. read the whole thing.
+ Show Spoiler +I just typed 600'000 words, I'm too lazy to type a TLDR
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It's currently 7pm for me
I'm going to be active from 7 - 11 (maybe 12)
Sleep from 11pm-7am
Work from 8am-6pm
Active from 7pm (24 hours from now) to ~1am
should be relatively active all day Sunday assuming nothing comes up
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My jury's still out on tumblewood.
Townread on MexicanAlien for sticking with the vote on me even as the Kuragari wagon picks up speed.
Why
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Ikid do you have a typo in your read about me?
You said Jesus said fyi mafia Doesn't know the setup.
Did you mean I said that?
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On January 29 2016 21:25 nooniansoong wrote:
Ikid do you have a typo in your read about me?
You said Jesus said fyi mafia Doesn't know the setup.
Did you mean I said that?
Yes, I meant to say that you said that. thanks for picking it up.
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There are probably a few typos, I wanted to get it out ASAP.
I also typed u[ instead of up
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I think our strongest lynch is Trfel. Posting all of the things that make him suspicious would take hours, and probably be repetitive, as people had posted many small posts about his plays.
The way he acts like it he doesn't need any defense leads me to believe he is scum and will convince his scummates to NK the biggest threat to him.
If he was town, he should try hard to defend himself so that we don't lynch another VT. Pretending to not care or saying stuff like "that's all I have to say on the matter" is Trfel's way of trying to close the case against him, so that no new opinions are made.
+ Show Spoiler +BTW I still think Tumblewood is scum.
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If I survive the night, I will push a Trfel lynch.
I have no trouble accepting the role of Trfel's wagondriver. Iknow this is seen as bad, but is actually neutral until the lynched flips.
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EPT
