Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 55

On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote:

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Day 1 Analysis:

Basically I'll point out the posts that are great for analysis, either finding reds or greens. In doing analysis most posts will be worthless, it's the gems you want to search for unless you want to do a full analysis profile on that person (dragging up all their posts and looking in context for patterns). That unfortunately takes a lot of time and thus can only be done on a few people at a time. Thus for those stretched on time, it's much easier to look for mistakes/bad posts and then do a thorough inspection of said person. That's how I'll present the red analysis.

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Here is a great example of a mafia slipping up very obviously in day 1.





These are two posts full of flagrant errors. This is the first easy mafia catch the town could've had; let's go through it:

-Note the multiple apologies, excuses, the specific mention that he is still learning, and overall meek tone. Newer mafia players will try to emphasize their inexperience as a way of overcompensating. Think about this from the angle of being a townie: why would you want to say all this? What's the point in painting yourself to be some noob who is useless and shouldn't be listened to? If you want to be of use to the town, apologizing a bunch and acting all sorry for doing nothing wrong is hardly going to make yourself listened to. In fact, it will make people ignore you instead. Someone who can't even convince themself is hardly going to convince anyone else. That would be great for a mafia who wants to hide though, wouldn't it?

On that angle it makes perfect sense from the mafia's perspective. You want to find reasons that make you look less suspicious without looking like you are trying too hard to do so. See how Misder isn't even suspicious before this but he's trying to make himself look less suspicious. That's entirely mafia rationale. A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar. It's a very common pattern that I've seen many, many times.

[[Redacted from post; paragraph was a separate argument against Misder that is irrelevant to Ikidomari.]]

-Lastly, dock another point against Misder for his extremely mild statements about his suspicions and refusal to vote. Why would voting be impulsive?

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On January 29 2016 08:12 Alur wrote:
VCA is hard. How could you do yours so fast Darth.

If we assume mafia helped push the wagon, it would've happened at a point where it wasn't obvious that the lynch would go through, so were talking the first 4 ish votes. Which would be me, Darth, PMT and Trfel. Trfel coming in as the fourth looks pretty suspicious, considering I was leaning towards him being scum.

But then theres this, thing (this is how Trfel acts on the Kura vote)



Followed by:



There is no mafia motivation for saying the bolded part, but when you just "jk" it, it could appear like he's just trying to gain some sort of deniability, especially when combined with the "I think I'm getting cold feet".

But PMT and Darth (who could potentially be pocketing me) aren't clear of suspicion either. I just don't have much to hinge that suspicion on currently.

Also I'm not sure I understand Edens motivation for joining the wagon last minute. He didn't actually need to vote for it to happen. It seems like it could be a ploy to gain some towncred, because mafia don't need to touch the wagon anymore at that point. He also tried to discredit Kuragari's reads (who scumread him).

I think noon actually looks kind of spooky now, in the world where he has too much information his play makes a lot of sense. He was quick to disagree with it being a scumslip (which he was right on), he made a big point of forcing Kuragari to claim (which looks towny, but it's sort of an obvious move). All while his vote was parked on a player (albeit a reasonable lynchtarget) who is one of the biggest lynchbaits. Without really pushing that specific lynch.

I think I kind of like mexican for sticking with his lynch. He presented which players he would be able to lynch, and didn't back down on his reads to join the Kura bandwagon. This also coincides with the fact that he's a townread of mine.

Some of this might be tinfoily, but that's because there aren't any conclusions that are staring me in the face.

On January 29 2016 08:41 darthfoley wrote:
Kuragari Wagon History

Alur #573 - 1st vote Kura

darthfoley #574 - 2nd vote Kura; reasoning explained

PMT #761 - 3rd vote Kura
-immediately unvote

PMT #762 - vote Onegu (Onegu only had 1 other vote at this time, from Shapelog I believe)

PMT #868 hops back on Kura train - still 3rd vote
- no explanation

Trfefl #869 - 4th Kura vote
-Previous post claims that Kura lynch is stupid
-Defending Ikido from wagon
-Switches off Tumblewood
-No reasoning given

VC AT TIME OF PMT/Trfel Votes

4 Kuragari (Alur, darthfoley, PMT, Trfel)
3 JesusIncarnate (Noon, Tumblewood, Ikidomari)
1 Tumblewood (MexicanAlien)
1 Ikidomari (Eden)

Not voted: Shapelog, Kuragari, Onegu, Jesus

Shapelog #871 - vote Ikido (now 4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood)

Shapelog #872 - unvote Ikido (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Tumble, 1 Ikido)

Shapelog #878 - vote Ikido, "going with gut" (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood)

Shapelog #894 - vote Kura (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood)
-Gut feeling = Ikido
-Later blames going with gut on Kura vote

Kuragari #935 - vote Tumblewood (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido)

Eden #958 - vote Kura (6 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido)


How many times did people vote?
Shapelog: 4 (PMT, Onegu, Ikido, Kura)
Eden: 4 (Onegu, Trfel, Ikido x2, Kura)
darthfoley: 3 (Tumblewood, Jesus, Kura)
Trfel: 3 (Onegu, Tumblewood, Kura)
PMT: 2 (Onegu, Kura)
Alur: 1 (Kuragari)

This VCA is not a masterpiece, but I think it clearly throws suspicion on two people specifically: Trfel and Shapelog.

Trfel #866:


Trfel #869:



Notice that he votes literally the post after PMT comes back to the Kuragari wagon, making it 4-3 Kura > Jesus, without giving any explanation why.

Also don't like posts that start like this:



Similarly, Shapelog has been on every wagon in existence: Onegu, Jesus, Ikido, and Kuragari. Gets his gut feeling mixed up (first says his gut is Ikido, later complains how his gut told him to vote Kura).

There is something off about this post. I would've been okay with it perhaps early D1, but this whole "i'm so torn thing!" comes off as fake to me, especially because he only cites other people's reasons... and hasn't made one good case all game.



To me, votes #4 and #5 are the votes that should be analyzed, because at 5-3 Kura > Jesus, no one was going to counter push Jesus. ESPECIALLY with Kuragari voting Tumblewood. Eden voting to make it 6-3 is NAI or maybe even slightly town, because that was the only wagon with momentum at that point. If he had hopped on and Kura had been mafia, it's a different story.

In conclusion, i'm scum reading both Shapelog and Trfel