Really Small Mafia II
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GreYMisT
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GreYMisT
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GreYMisT
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GreYMisT
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GreYMisT
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On December 12 2015 08:27 DarthPunk wrote: I think the laughing thing is borderline legit actually. I find mafia are often not carefree enough to insert humor into their posts. Although that didn't make me laugh at all. I hope this interaction wasn't just a roundabout way to tell me I'm not funny. Thanks Darth. Here's a question for you: did you focus on Damdred because he said he liked me in particular, or was it the fact he was saying he liked anyone at all this early? | ||
GreYMisT
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I'm not sure about Darthpunk. I would have probably answered his questions differently if I were him, but admittedly that doesn't really mean anything. I don't have an opinion on anyone else quite yet. It's unusual at least for me, for Marv not to be super active early. But it is just a quarter into the day and he might have changed his marvy ways since I last saw him. In any case, I'll have more detailed opinions later. | ||
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On December 13 2015 00:49 raynpelikoneet wrote: Rels i have a really hard time understanding your thought process atm so could you walk me through it. There are a couple of things: 1) Your read on Greymist. I actually find it one of the weirdest things in this game that he does not have any sort of read on me. Before your posts two of the three people posting in this game besides him and me have stated they have a townread on me. What i would think Greymist would do is to either agree with the read, or disagree with the read (let it be null/scum for him then). Instead he doesn't do any of this. I consider myself the most vocal person in this game so far besides Damdred --> i would think people would have at least some opinion on me. Apparently you do aswell now, everyone else who has posted (after our morning) does, why is it not weird for you that Greymist doesn't? (that goes to Greymist aswell, i would like to hear an explanation to this) 2) Your read on RtaniSoul. You think they are second likely to be mafia (calling marv mafia here is just straight out bullshit), based on the fact all they did is call your #1 scumread scum?!?!?! How on earth does this make any sense at all? 3) Why is your vote on someone you can't possibly have any read on instead on someone who you DO apparently have a read on, and you legitmately, based on you, think is mafia? I don't have time at the moment to post any follow up analysis, so I will only answer the question directed at me. I did not include any thoughts on you, Ryan, in part because you have been vocal. There is a little more for me to have to figure out and I'd like to not post a read on you until I have. It's going to be a couple more hours still before I'm able to actually post a lot again, but I promise I'm reading and can interject if need be. | ||
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The first is in regards to Damdred/Rels. I felt OK about Dam at first, but it struck me as interesting the way he interacted with Rels when Rels votes Marv. He asks why Rels is policy voting someone when he has a scum read on someone else, a sentiment I have no real issue with. What strikes me as strange is the way Dam seems to play up what Rels is doing as a weird play. The interaction covers most of a page when it seemed like it really didn't need to. I am suspicious of players who have lengthy interactions with others while accomplishing nothing. In addition, after this happens, DP essentially does the exact same thing and yet no reaction from Damdred. This strikes me as odd and I'd like to hear damdred's thoights about DP's vote placement. The second thing is Ryan's long awaited analysis of himself, not to be one who disappoints: I am slightly suspicious of Ryan. Here is my reasoning: First I will say that, while I find some conduct of Ryan suspicious, this results from inconsistencies in his behavior. I thought a lot of what he was doing seemed towny, however there are a few things that give me pause. The first has occurred recently- forgive me for not quoting at the moment - when Ryan said he was sure that there could not be scum between DP/Hydra/ and Rels And was "certain" there was scum between myself and Marv. To begin, I don't like when people categorize like this. I feel like it benefits mafia to arbitrarily put people into categories to empose their viewpoint on the town. That isn't the main reason I didn't like the post, however. The problem I have is his sudden change in conviction. Notice before this post he is just asking my opinion, wanting to know what I think of him (I will address this later below). And then, literally the next post he is certain either I or Marv are scum. Also consider that Marv is a guy who has not been here!You cannot be certain that someone is mafia if they have not posted. So basically, Rayn is saying here that he is certain I am mafia. It is this change in attitude, this certainty, and this hiding of his opinion by including Marv in this pairing that aroused my suspicion. Finally, I thought back to Ryan's other posts. They all seemed very towny so I thought to myself: "maybe I'm just chainsaw ing Ryan here, creating a read on him out of spite." Then I noticed 2 minor things which makes me think, perhaps, he could be mafia. First, the way he jumped onto Rels with Damdred seems a bit rushed and oppertunistic to me. As if he is testing the waters to see if he can get something rolling. Finally, Ryan asking my read of him. This strikes me as odd as well because it appears as though he wants to draw some early fire for an easy opportunity to defend himself through activity. A question like "why didn't you analyze me?!" Has bearing on day 2, but not a quarter into day 1 when information is still being processed. There are my current thoughts, more to come. | ||
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allowing essentially a no lynch day 1 with information. Option number 2 is to let the mod kill happen, and go for double. Don't know how you all feel about either option, Something to Regard if people start getting strong feelings about someone . | ||
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On December 14 2015 00:15 RtaniSoul wrote: So here's where we're at right now. We kind of think Damdred and Rayn are easy townreads right now. Damdred for being lighthearted and happy to interact. Rayn for not tunneling and actually attempting to interact with his reads. Kind of leaning town on GreY. Just don't think he'd go after Damdy and Rayn when everyone and their mom is townreading them. Especially if Marv is mafia, he'd actually have to line up mislynches and no one wants to lynch either of them right now. We don't think the post about Rayn being vocal was alignment indicative, and a bunch of things in his big post stuck out as townish. One thing we didn't like though was the marv post and trying to get him modkilled instead, but that would be an easy scum tactic that doesn't make much sense in combination with trying to push damdred/rayn. We think he's just wrong mostly. Marv is clearly scum at this point. ##Vote Marvellosity Which leaves DP and Rels for the last scum. Some of what Rels has posted looks okay and some of it doesn't. There's a few instances where it seems like he's throwing suspicions on people without trying to figure them out like he did The way he approached DP and our slot in a way that seems more focused on burying rather than solving. An exception to that would be this post: Where it feels like he's actually trying to work with GM. Then there was the weird marv vote that also got pinged out by Rayn and Damdred. In the case of Marv being mafia, it gives Rels an excuse to be on him early whilst actually being able to switch to DP as soon as Marv posts. About the reiteration Our concern is essentially what we're outlining below. Not the fact that DP is buddying, or that he's not aggressive in isolation, but that he's a non-entity. Those are distinctly different in our minds than saying oh look! DP is buddying people! He must be scum! Or DP is not being aggressive enough! He must be scum! It is more of an overall feel for his presence (or lack thereof) in the thread. For DP, it feels like he's buddying a bunch of players and the GM scumread seems too easy and shallow. He also spent a lot more time on his townreads than his scumreads. There just doesn't seem to be much drive to find scum in him. It's also telling that we can't really say much about his filter besides a bunch of reasons for people to be town. Town Damdred Raynpelikoneet Leaning Town GreYMisT Leaning Scum Rels DarthPunk Mafia Marvellosity ##Vote: Marvellosity Marv is obviously the vote today. I'm a bit worried because it seems to me that mafia marv would be able to just make token posts to make day1 at least a bit harder for us, but this is immaterial. Also Ritani I disagree with you about ryan. I don't think that interacting with reads and and not tunneling pwople is worthy of being solidly town. Do you have anything else you are basing the read off of that I havnt noticed? On December 13 2015 19:50 Rels wrote: How is it scum indicative ? I'm one of the scumread of Damdred, it's normal he interrogates me on my actions. On the contrary, I think it's town indicative for rayn to share his thought process. It's only scum indicative if you can point how what he posted is not logical or deserves a scum agenda. He explained why he thought that. Can you point what is wrong or scum with his logic ? You seem to consider me town since apparently Damdred / rayn attacked me too easily. Why are you townreading me ? At that time you had yet to post anything game related. in addition, he technically wasnt scum reading you, you were in s a "??" category because you had not yet posted. Because of this, I inferred that he didnt actually have a scum read on you during that time. Also I'm not townreading you. At this point i'm just trying to bring up things as I see them. Nothing in my analysis depends on one person or antother being mafia. | ||
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On December 13 2015 17:56 DarthPunk wrote: Why are you deflecting the decision making onto others here? Do you not have your own opinion on what we should do in this situation? This didn't turn out like I planned becuase I posted from a phone, so to verify this you are going to have to either trust me or check it out on an iphone like device. I posted this "food for though" only to see how people would react to an obviously bad plan to try on day 1. For proof: when I posted this on mobile the letters on the left hand column spelled "A Plan", but here they just say ABA. additionally you can see that the language is a bit weird to fit some of the letters in. Here is what I found: I like DP a lot more for this post. He is the only one to call me out for posting such a stupid alternative plan. That indicates to me that he is trying to find scum. In addition, the way he thought that Rels slipped up relation to this shows me that he is in a scum hunting mood. The other 2 people who commented on the post told me it was a bad idea, this is neither really scum nor town indicative to me. A townie could either not want so a bad plan to stick around in the thread for scum to sieze on, while a scum could use this as an easy way to get town cred. | ||
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On December 14 2015 00:43 Damdred wrote: Well...that's not a bad post. Why is it scum oriented in this case to really just try to find town in this setup though? Marv is obvious scum, wouldn't the optimal plan to be to try to Poe the last one since we still have two lynches? I'm not sure if I said this, maybe you misread? point it out to me if I did. I don't think its scum oriented to find town, im just wary at the moment of using marv "certainly" being scum to get town reads atm because we don't have a flip. | ||
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On December 14 2015 00:57 Damdred wrote: Oh no no, you ninjad between art/rs and my post. That was directed at his point about dp. Sorry for the confussion. But now that we are here in the thread. Do you not see anything Towney in rayns play? And I thought you were complimenting me, how embarrasing! Like I said in my earlier post, I do see towny elements in Rayns play. However, certain things stand out to me as scummy. | ||
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On December 13 2015 18:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: I never said there could not be scum between them. I said i think there is no way BOTH of the scum are between them. I provided analysis on why i reached to the conclusion. I am not arbitary putting people into categories, if you think my analysis is incorrect, please argue about why they are incorrect instead of just creating a narrative on the conclusion. I am not saying it is certain you are mafia. In fact i am far more sure of marv being scum at this point based purely on the fact that he well knows the game has started and has decided to not post anything at all. The conclusion that at least one of you / marv has to be mafia for me is completely logical based on the analysis on other people -- basically it is due to PoE. Again, if you do not agree with this, please point out where i am wrong in my analysis. Then we have something to argue about. Tbf, you can't just say something is scummy / wrong without actually explaining why it is that way. I feel like i have provided my thought process behind every conclusion i have made in this game -- so it would only be natural for you to actually try to disprove my conclusions if you attack my arguments, no? Again, i have already said why i think this is the case. Why is my (and Damdred's) "jump" on Rels "rushed and oppertunistic". I found out Rels' thought process illogical and the things he posted didn't match up with the conclusions he ended up with. I wanted him to elaborate further, and i don't think "that going nowhere" is my fault, since Rels' answer was basically "yeah that's what i think". In my opinion this has bearing when you analyze every single other player who has posted that far in the game. I consider it weird because if you are mafia you would either: 1) correctly call me town -- in which case it hinders your mislynch possibilities 2) incorrectly call me mafia -- in which case your logic is not sound in the first place and someone can catch you for it Furthermore at some point you were saying you didn't have a read on me. But around half of your case (idk.. is this a case?) is based on the timeline when you didn't have a read on me, and is also basically based on everything i did during that time.. How is it possible both of your statements are correct? 1) I missread your first point then, my mistake 2) my issue with your analysis of me being mafia was not the fact that you think so, but the fact you admit it is only based on process of elimination. It is easy for mafia to point out how people are town and then say "well by process of elimination this person has to be mafia." It is far harder for mafia to actually find reasons that a town player is scummy. I like town hunting and using process of elimination to know who to focus on, but that cannot be the main support you have behind someone being scum. At least not on day 1. 3) I didn't go into great detail because I dont think you are for sure scum, just that I was suspicious of some of your actions. If I thought you were the lynch today trust me, there would be much more reasoning. Nevertheless, I thought the reason behind my suspicion was fairly straightforward. Your actions looked to me like a mafia setting up tomorrows misslynch, and not trying to get something done. Thats just what I see. Finally, I dont really understand what you are saying at the end there, but I only posted on 2 players who I was able to analyize fairly quickly, and saved you for later. I am under no obligation to mention every player in the game when I post about someone but you seem to think that I am, at least about you. I think this is weird. I think this is weird becuase, Town rayn would only care about my opinion of him if he wants to see how I conduct my analysis or wants me to give a bearing on how something has gone in the game. This game had only been going on for a page or two at this point so there was nothing pressing to analyze, not a lot of content that needed commenting on, and its completly understandable that people are gathering their thoughts. I therefore think it is more likely that scum ryan would want me to analyze him early. A scum player can survive day one by posting a lot, and basically using that presence to get people to townread him early. When I analyzied two players and didnt analyize ryan, a scum ryan would be a bit worried that his plan to be percieved as town through activity has failed to some degree. I see this request to "analyize me!" as a very low risk attempt to get people to town read him. Basically there is a very small benefit to doing this as town, but a low risk and high reward to do it as scum. | ||
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On December 14 2015 02:28 raynpelikoneet wrote: See, i can't legit understand the arrows with the questionmarks. You had said, after i had done those things that you do not have a read on me. Later on, when you express your scumread on me, part of the reasoning is based on the time BEFORE you said you had no read on me. So, i can't really figure it out why you, as town, would say you don't have a read on me if i have already done something scummy. Or if you re-read and came to a different conclusion afterwards why did you not clearly point that out then? I am talking about these things here: Both of these things happened before you made this post: ...where you literally state you do not have a read on me. The rest of your case i consider answered properly because it is based on you misreading one of my posts, no? Real quick, I think here lies our misunderstanding. I didn't say I had a null read on you. What I meant was that I had not analyzed your posts yet and would later. I didn't go from null read to my analysis, I went from literally no read to my analysis | ||
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On December 14 2015 03:46 Damdred wrote: Super important question I want grey to answer this before he answers anything else. You seem to be still somewhat scum leaning Ryan is this correct? Much less than I did before. I can go into detail why but its based on the misunderstanding we had and I dont think thats the best use of our time; now that Marv is here things have gotten unfortunatly interesting. | ||
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On December 14 2015 05:19 marvellosity wrote: this is kinda my appeal to emotion to you rayn, and also the rest of the players who know me: weekends are ALWAYS fucking shit for me these days. like every game i make excuses about the weekend (and i should have done here but i just didn't). like the shadow QT of my last game is me going "i need to get NK n1 because as usual i am away all weekend" sure being afk is generally a scumtell for me, but being away on the weekend is just a marvtell, and in such a fucking short game, at any point (if i wasn't genuinely afk) and made a bunch of posts that looked fine. except (in this case where i am mafia) i have decided to leave making my posts for like 2 hours before deadline when all the votes on me and it looks kinda hopeless? bleh............... My issue here is that this post didnt come at the start of the game when you said "hey" after the day post. You obviously knew that the game was starting and that it was the weekend. You didnt make any effort to phone post and say, "yo guys cant post, sorry, will do it later" or anything of the sort. Why shouldn't I believe that you are scum marv trying to come in at the last second and sow a little chaos? | ||
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On December 14 2015 05:23 marvellosity wrote: how does it benefit me or my team for me to just get lynched d1? cmon Grey. you've already gotten 1 vote off yourself | ||
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On December 14 2015 02:01 Damdred wrote: factually marv has been spotty as scum lately if he will do anything or not. how do you respond to this statement then? | ||
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On December 14 2015 05:27 DarthPunk wrote: And why am I scum for it when other people have expressed similar sentiments and are town? Like, is everyone who has stated that Greymist is scummy but are not voting for him also scum? That makes no fucking sense. DP has a point here marv, I filtered him and unless im missing something he said im suspicious, never that I was his choice of a lynch to follow you. Why him over Rels if this is the case? | ||
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On December 14 2015 04:21 Rels wrote: Marv still hasn't posted! Good, I don't have to read anything in the few minutes I have. See you all tomorrow, I'll have a lot more time than this weekend Well fuck | ||
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In the meantime im going to look at the other options for lynch. I'm no longer confortable with rayn as a lynch. Thinking about what ritani said about his meta, and clearing up that inconsistancy i thought i saw in his post allieviated a lot of my concerns. I am looking at rels and damdred atm because I am leaning town on DP. | ||
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On December 13 2015 19:43 Rels wrote: But you don't have a read on Damdred after saying rayn's read is godlike ? It's true it sounds like a bad excuse. That agreement with DP at the end strikes me as really weird, but I dont know why. Maybe its becuase its really just meaningless, he doesnt use the time or space to push me or ask a question, and there really is no followup along this line from him. and then there is a possible overreaction becuase i mentioned his name in this post: On December 13 2015 19:43 Rels wrote: But you don't have a read on Damdred after saying rayn's read is godlike ? It's true it sounds like a bad excuse. prompting him to 3rd party defend rayn. maybe im reaching but I'd be ok with a rels lynch if thats the play. | ||
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You guys are right, although a scum or town marv could enter the game like that, its not alignment indicitave. I'm going to vote Rels until we figure out whats what ##Vote: Rels | ||
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On December 14 2015 06:14 Damdred wrote: This post though rayn has me super skeptical on gm here. Myself and you (and policy lynching marv which he somewhat disagrees wirh) are his top scum reads or his strongest ones. Marv seems to ignore his question he asked about his spotty mafia play. Gm doesn't seem to care and basically follows onto Rels who are his top scum reads scum. Then comes up with a reason but then doesn't try to figure more out. Its weird I'd be pusing marv more about it, but right berfore i posted that he said he was leaving and evidently he did. So, like ryan said, we either have to lynch marv because fuck it, or we lynch someone else. I feel weirder about rels than I do about anyone else, for the reasons i pointed out. and am most comfortable with that atm. | ||
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However, Im not sold on Marv being mafia, his focus seemed weird but he did all of that in like a one hour period. Even though it seemed all over the place to me it seemed genuine. | ||
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On December 14 2015 06:45 Rels wrote: Marv not voting me is town indicative. Damdred and rayn were townreads. So scum are between gm dp and rsoul I think. ##Unvote ##Vote arsoultin Did the minimal work while not being under fire. Real fast while I figure shit out. Is this the only reason you had for not voting marv? becuase its the only one I see. | ||
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On December 15 2015 01:02 Damdred wrote: Rayn I do have an issue with that greymist part. He does cast doubt towards Marv, but he drops that doubt pretty quickly even though Marv basically ignored interacting with him. Also for someone who has doubts about Marv refusing to move back to scum Marv and looking maybe to go elsewhere other than Marv and rels is super strange. Like if he's doubting Marv why so staunch on rels? It doesn't make sense And the reason for this was, at the time the chaos started, Marv said he was gone. There would be no more answers or conversations with him. I decided that voting Rels was a better play as I had a day's worth of information, while anything I had on marv was clouded by the fact that he was only here for a very minimal amount of time. | ||
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On December 15 2015 01:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: Greymist too, why didn't you switch back in the end. Can you explain that as well as you can -- let it all come from your heart <3 see above | ||
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On December 15 2015 01:04 Rels wrote: OK if I'm not welcome here I will wait for these to get answers before coming back. GM I'm waiting for you. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/499921-really-small-mafia-ii?page=17#329 (only the 2nd thing) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/499921-really-small-mafia-ii?page=18#344 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/499921-really-small-mafia-ii?page=19#365 1) I dont understand the question 2) it looks like you are panicing and not trying to actually find scum. A town player in that situation would try to help and get the vote off of him, you said "shut up scum" voted rayn, realized that wasnt happening, and voted off. 3) and I think i might have misquoted as you said. I see it as a 3rd party defense because I posted suspicions of ryan, and you came in and broke down the post instead of waiting to see how rayn would react to it, like I would assume a town would who wants more information. | ||
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It means that he had to compact a days worth of mafia play into like 1 hour. I thought that might account for the way in which he seemed to be bouncing back and forth in his analysis. Rels, I'm going to go back and reread that and make sure | ||
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On December 15 2015 01:36 Rels wrote: So you mean it referred to this ? I dont think this is getting us anywhere, but ill try to make this clear for you. And this is the last I'll discuss this for now. I was pointing out a connection between your saying "sounds like a bad excuse" when i made a comment about ryan, and the later post you did commenting on my post about rayn. "Prompting" was probably the incorrect word to use in that case. | ||
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On December 14 2015 05:38 Damdred wrote: Marv is town, the reason I say this is he hates giving town information if he is scum and going to roll over. Two hours and thirty to go and he comes in and tries to fins scum? Maybe he gets lynched maybe not but I he basically Poe town and I don't think scum marv does that on his death bed+ tone. ##unvote However next you say that you use PoE again to get 3 people on the bottom of the list. Maybe I'm confused but it doesnt seem like you can process of eliminate someone as scum when you still have 3 scum reads. On December 14 2015 05:40 Damdred wrote: So Damdred Rayn Marc Hydra Rels/dp/grey Idk what to do maybe Rels today On December 14 2015 05:41 Damdred wrote: The bottom three are pure poe, I think Rels probably has the highest chance of flipping scum to a point. Grey has a few weird things, and I'm just paranoid of dp tricking me again I guess, | ||
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On December 15 2015 01:48 Rels wrote: See, I still have a little bit of a problem. 'cause here is where you attacked my post saying it was a 3rd party defense of rayn: You said I was prompted to 3rd party defend rayn when you mentionned me by name. But you didn't mention me by name in the post I commented on saying it sounded like a bad excuse. Look: So what did you mean by that ? I have already explained this. Prompted was a poor word choice, "connected" is better. I was referring to both posts. I have also explained the last thing. I posted 2 quick reads, saw that rayn had posted a few big posts and decided to hold off on them until later because it would take more to digest. Rels what do you think about rayn? | ||
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On December 15 2015 01:54 Rels wrote: You haven't answer the question. Who is "him" in the sentence: and then there is a possible overreaction becuase i mentioned his name in this post: in that post: Is that me ? Try to read what i have said, I'm going to spend time analyzing and not belaboring this point. | ||
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On December 15 2015 01:53 Damdred wrote: Your time is better used looking at someone other than the guy who hammered mafia when of he's scum could of put us in lylo by killing rels. Anyway not sure what the problem with the statement is, Marv did enough to sway myself and others off of him and at that point he seemed town ina broad sense. that just left three people who I would lynch into at that point,mostly by poe. Ok | ||
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On December 14 2015 05:46 GreYMisT wrote: I found 2 things about rels. first this post sticks out to me: That agreement with DP at the end strikes me as really weird, but I dont know why. Maybe its becuase its really just meaningless, he doesnt use the time or space to push me or ask a question, and there really is no followup along this line from him. and then there is a possible overreaction becuase i mentioned his name in this post: prompting him to 3rd party defend rayn. maybe im reaching but I'd be ok with a rels lynch if thats the play. | ||
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On December 13 2015 09:36 GreYMisT wrote: while reading, 2 stood out to me as interesting: The first is in regards to Damdred/Rels. I felt OK about Dam at first, but it struck me as interesting the way he interacted with Rels when Rels votes Marv. He asks why Rels is policy voting someone when he has a scum read on someone else, a sentiment I have no real issue with. What strikes me as strange is the way Dam seems to play up what Rels is doing as a weird play. The interaction covers most of a page when it seemed like it really didn't need to. I am suspicious of players who have lengthy interactions with others while accomplishing nothing. In addition, after this happens, DP essentially does the exact same thing and yet no reaction from Damdred. This strikes me as odd and I'd like to hear damdred's thoights about DP's vote placement. The second thing is Ryan's long awaited analysis of himself, not to be one who disappoints: I am slightly suspicious of Ryan. Here is my reasoning: First I will say that, while I find some conduct of Ryan suspicious, this results from inconsistencies in his behavior. I thought a lot of what he was doing seemed towny, however there are a few things that give me pause. The first has occurred recently- forgive me for not quoting at the moment - when Ryan said he was sure that there could not be scum between DP/Hydra/ and Rels And was "certain" there was scum between myself and Marv. To begin, I don't like when people categorize like this. I feel like it benefits mafia to arbitrarily put people into categories to empose their viewpoint on the town. That isn't the main reason I didn't like the post, however. The problem I have is his sudden change in conviction. Notice before this post he is just asking my opinion, wanting to know what I think of him (I will address this later below). And then, literally the next post he is certain either I or Marv are scum. Also consider that Marv is a guy who has not been here!You cannot be certain that someone is mafia if they have not posted. So basically, Rayn is saying here that he is certain I am mafia. It is this change in attitude, this certainty, and this hiding of his opinion by including Marv in this pairing that aroused my suspicion. Finally, I thought back to Ryan's other posts. They all seemed very towny so I thought to myself: "maybe I'm just chainsaw ing Ryan here, creating a read on him out of spite." Then I noticed 2 minor things which makes me think, perhaps, he could be mafia. First, the way he jumped onto Rels with Damdred seems a bit rushed and oppertunistic to me. As if he is testing the waters to see if he can get something rolling. Finally, Ryan asking my read of him. This strikes me as odd as well because it appears as though he wants to draw some early fire for an easy opportunity to defend himself through activity. A question like "why didn't you analyze me?!" Has bearing on day 2, but not a quarter into day 1 when information is still being processed. There are my current thoughts, more to come. | ||
GreYMisT
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combine that with the basic grammer rules for pronouns and all of your questions should be answered. All caps will not help you get your point across better btw. Just makes it look like you are trying to get a rise out of me | ||
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But anyway rels, just pretend like I am not mafia for a few minutes. You have a gun, who do you shoot tonight and why. | ||
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On December 15 2015 04:29 Rels wrote: I don't think that makes sense. Watching a movie right now, will get back to it after. I shoot you btw. So if im not mafia you shoot me? Answer the question please. | ||
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On December 15 2015 05:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: I know i have the fucking problem with this: rayn argues Y Greymist thinks Y is in fact X stuff happens Rels makes a point on Y Greymist realizes X is in fact Y Greymist argues Rels is scum because of his response to X pfffffttt... i don't actually know what to think here. That is a mischaracterization and a slight mistake of logic. The analysis has little bearing on the substance of the argument, but the way it was made. And Rels, you literally think everyone else is gold standard town? I find that impossible to believe. | ||
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On December 15 2015 07:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: meh... i tried to look like a medic You were trying to tank a shot? | ||
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On December 15 2015 07:11 raynpelikoneet wrote: RtaniSoul you're actually the medic? And you're blue hunting? | ||
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On December 15 2015 07:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: yes, totally. can you see why it is the correct play to claim? i assure you if you are the doctor the town wins this game 100%. by all means, explain | ||
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On December 15 2015 07:22 RtaniSoul wrote: #teamgirlydrinks yes you are playing together. Can we get back to talking about the game | ||
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On December 15 2015 07:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well Rels is not the doc either so... how did you come to that conclusion? | ||
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On December 15 2015 07:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: he would have not been "self-suicidal" on eod1 if he was. most likely would have claimed instead of posting: thats fair | ||
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On December 15 2015 07:35 raynpelikoneet wrote: successful doctor save puts us at MYLO for the next day anyways if we mislynch. Obviously this means i am town and DP is town but i am 100% sure of myself (i would have really lynched Rels 100% if i was scum with marv -- i can guarantee you that), and i don't see why DP would be mafia tbh. I also lean town on DP but I dont think I share your conviction. Im reading again to see if I get there with you. | ||
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Ive been focusing on the end of day stuff and am having a hard time wrapping my head around marv's behavior. At the point of this entry into the game the only 2 reasons I can think of that people were voting him were inactivity and meta reasons (but based on him being inactive). Regardless of anyone elses alignment, I would have thought the best play for him to survive until next day would be to basically just ask to let him prove it tomorrow and in the night and then try to find a lynch someone agrees with. This isnt what happened. Instead: 1st - enters the game leaning scum on Rels 2nd - votes DP, still has some suspicion of Rels 3rd - you and he have a small discussion and you vote Rels 4th -appeal to emotion 5th - he has an exchange with others 6th - final appeal to emotion All in all his push on DP is really weak, and he ends even with a little note on Rels looking suspicious. The trouble I am having here is, why would he go this route instead? he had 2 "scum" reads, he could have just left it open and said "fine" and voted rels with you by saying it didnt matter to him. I believe he must have weighed the risks and reward and thought he was likely to die, and chose this action on purpose. This leads me to think that either DP or Rels are scum. its not the most watertight analysis but thats what this tells me. what do you think? I just want to put this here, but this underlined and bolded part caught my eye. I have no logical reason why it did but I thought I would point it out nevertheless. On December 14 2015 05:08 marvellosity wrote: maybe Rels is just town for it and it's actually rsoul/Lex and they've managed to make 3 or 4 nice sounding posts and the whole game townreads them for it Rels' play is a lot dirtier than rsoul/lex's which is kinda townie i mean it might make sense for mafia in this setup to distance themselves with bussing maybe? setting up a case on DP. But then if that's the case then he probably should follow through, so it's not even that he's voting an afk over a scumread, ti's the fact that the narrative doesn't make sense. possibly. Alright, I'll be AFK for a bit, just thought id get that out there. | ||
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The Doctor I breadcrumbed it earlier in that plan post I made, quite surprised mafia didnt see it actually. After I made it it seemed far to obvious to me but w/e. I claim now becuase I thought about the plan, and am seeing that if the day proceeds with this idocy we'll get nothing done. | ||
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On December 16 2015 00:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: Greymist, to answer your question about marv's actions: His actions points the most to Rels being mafia. It points the least to DP being mafia (as i have argued). Hydra is somewhere in the middle. But i don't really think this kind of "casemaking" is legit, since people don't really have control over what marv does or doesn't. Like if Rels is town here, he has no way of defending himself against "marv did something" as he has no control over what mard does. It's a cheap way to make a case in my opinion, so that's why i think your question doesn't achieve much. The point of the question was to analyize people's analysis of it, not really to make a case on anyone. Also, just for fun, I was literally (no joke) about to change my save to damdred. I went with someone else, deciding not to try to game the mafia and it turned out wrong. Would have been a sick play. | ||
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Though if you just keep quoting Rtani and saying "conceed" I will quickly reevaluate my position. | ||
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On December 16 2015 00:44 Rels wrote: Do you think it's believable that artasoul saw marv post during EOD1 but didn't bother writing stuff while everyone else was panicking ? It doesnt look good, though its possible, however unlikely | ||
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On December 16 2015 00:47 Rels wrote: Yep doc. Sry for the aggressiveness earlier, I know it's hard to be on the receiving end of aggressive questionning. Even if I don't understand how the fuck you could invent something that didn't exist. Not really, I didnt mind it. I was never going to get lynched this game, doubt I would have even if I wasnt the doc (would have not played as a blue in that case) I have you in one of 2 categories: you are either overzealous town, or new/panicking mafia. To figure out if you are town or mafia I'd like you to just post your thoughts about Rayn, DP, and Rtani. just a paragraph about each is fine, feel free to copy and paste earlier analysis you have done, I just dont want to see "he is scum" be the only thing there. | ||
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On December 17 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Funny fact is Rels... Greymist considers you town and not the hydra. I am not sure at all, if we lynch the hydra, and they flip town, that Greymist is going to make the correct call in LYLO if i get shot (srsly, noone can fucking even assume Grymist didn't protect me on N1 lol). So if you want to live another day please convince Greymist you are mafia. Rayn what makes you think that I dont die tonight? im a confirmed town | ||
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On December 17 2015 01:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: So am i. There is no world where i do not vote for Rels on D1 in this game. While you may not know it everyone else does. The one who is more "capable" of making an incorrect decision lives. yes but you are not capable of saving someone at night if you dont get shot | ||
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Ritani's read on me this game has been a bit weird as well, I was the easy lynch coming into day 2 without the doctor claim, but Ritani has been waffleing back and forth on me the entire day 1 and night 1, but always for very weak reasons. It looks like a scum oriented play to me because it allows them to both switch hard onto me or switch hard off of me whenver the time suits them. Look at the events of today, unlike rels ritani never caught flack for how they thought about me. Also due to some WIFOM night action shenanigans, i think this is the most likely answer as well. I will not reveal my saves for obvious reasons, apart from the obvious person who I didnt save, but ive been telling myself in mafia for a while now that I need to go with my hunches more, they are so often right. ##Vote: Ritanisoul | ||
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I also have something and I want both DP and Rels to humor me, and i'd like rayn to go along with it. I'd like both of you to do your best to make a case on rayn. disregard how unlikly it is, or whether or not its something youu actually believe. ill be here occassionally to respond, but ill mainly be following along and gathering my thoughts for the end of night post. | ||
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On December 18 2015 00:34 DarthPunk wrote: Nope this is super fucking retarded greymist. Explain your reasoning. You are a potential lynch target so you need to back up every assertion | ||
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On December 18 2015 01:02 DarthPunk wrote: Because Rayn being scum makes no fucking sense based on everything that has happened in this game. Why would he lynch fucking Marv instead of just winning the game? He is blatantly town and fucking around making cases that nobody believes in only confuses the actual thinking that needs to happen. And what needs to happen is this: You and Rayn need to filter dive both rels and I and when we vote for each other at lylo whichever one of you is left will need to make a decision. That is the correct play. I will never ever ever lynch or vote for Rayn and I will not read or make a case on him. Thanks, you've given me what I wanted. I'll need time to interpret the information you and rels have both given me. | ||
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I was looking at the end of day 1 and I think Rels is mafia. Here is why. Look at the state of the votes when Rels makes his final vote switch off of rayn to Rtani: On December 14 2015 06:54 Rels wrote: Arsoul is scum that I don't know why everyone is townreading Rayn might be omgus but I don't like this thing Gm is probably scum Here is what I think but I've not read anything that happened today On December 14 2015 06:55 Rels wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote rsoul On December 14 2015 06:55 Rels wrote: Alright this was my last will See you later folks At the point of this final vote, this is the vote count (edited to remove Damdreds vote that came after Rels') On December 14 2015 06:57 LoneMeow wrote: Vote count: marvellosity (2): DarthPunk (1): marvellosity Rels (3): RtaniSoul (1): raynpelikoneet (0): At this point Rels has not posted really aything about Marv, only that he has a townread on him becuase otherwise he would have voted Rels instead of DP (we of course know this to be false). So, as far as Rels knows, he is going to die. And at this point, Rels could have saved himself by voting for Marvellosity, giving marv the new plurality. So the question remains: why didn't rels do this? One argument is that Rels sincerely thought that Rtani was most likely the scum, and that marv is innocent. First off he voted Rtani after recognizing the entire thread was townreading them at this point, so he must have known that there would be no vote switch here. I think if Rels really cared he would have given more of a reason to switch off. Rels argues that he thought Marv was town becuase otherwise Marv would have voted for Rels and tried to secure the lynch that way, however I don't actually think this is likely. Marv actually was scum and he entered the thread not voting for Rels. This is becuase marv's survival strategy at the end of day 1 had to be to show the thread that he is capable and can be an asset day 2, and he did that by coming in with a different lynch target. Thus the fact that he didnt vote for Rels should not have made marv look any more townie. The only explination I can see for why Rels didnt try to save his own life (allegidly a townie) at the end of day 1 by lynching someone who he didnt have a good reason to believe was town, is that both Rels and Marv are scum together. At this point in the game it looked like there would be a decent chance marv would survive the next day, so Rels would not want to hammer his scummate when it looks like Rels himself was taking a lot of suspicion. I think the mafia plan was to actually sacrifice Rels and have him through a bunch of flack around at the end of the day. | ||
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My plan to let marv get modkilled. Here is Rels response: On December 13 2015 19:56 Rels wrote: We do not gain a mislynch from a modkill. With a mislynch + NK we are at 3v2 LYLO tomorrow With a modkill + mafia lynch + NK we are at 3v1 MYLO tomorrow. With a modkill + mislynch + NK we lost. Here is DP's response: On December 13 2015 17:56 DarthPunk wrote: Why are you deflecting the decision making onto others here? Do you not have your own opinion on what we should do in this situation? I talked about my thoughts about these differences earlier, and still think it looks a bit better for DP here. While Rels is quick to jump in and explain why the plan is bad, DP is the only one to attack me about it. This evidences to me that DP was in a scumhunting state of mind when he came upon my post. Regarding Rels, this is more or less neutral. however, I will point out that damdred had already said never play for the mod kill, and Rels swooped in later to basically say the same thing in different words. End of Day 1 Lot of stuff happened here. Here is a breakdown of what Rels did: See previous post. DP: I like what DP did here. He unvotes Marv becuase he gets back, but keeps pressuring him, questioning his reasoning. He ends up coming to the same conclusion I think I did at the end of the day, that lynching marv is a mistake on day 1 (though I believe for different reasons). but then he just turns over lynching power to Rayn, and commits some hours before the day ends as well. Now we of course dont know what would have happened had Rayn not said Rels, but DP would have looked pretty bad had he not gone along with what Rayn said. The whole thing about me on night 1 and day 2 Rels: not going to quote it all To me this exhance is pretty neutral now. He could either be scum just trying to force his read upon the town, or tunnlevisioned town trying to force his read upon the town. However I think something can be said for how, when I wasnt giving him the answers he wanted, he didnt really engage anyone else to try to convince them, he instead just kept pushing me. I would think a town would be more likely to say "fuck it you are scum" and then really only talk to other people and try to get them on board. DP: I like what he did here, he was actually trying to understand what the hell Rels was talking about and voicing his opinion on it. End of day 2 DP tried to get people off of Rtani and even ended the day voting himself. Rels: there is a lot but my hands hurt from typing. I don't like his attidtude at the end of this day. Seems to be putting words and arguments into people's mouths And right now there is this weird as hell "swear your not scum thing" that convinces him that Ryan is scum | ||
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If i do play again itwont be with hydras (nothing against either of you, i simply dont like it) and im policy lynching emotional posts thanks for the invite and the hosting. despite everything it was interesting to get into the swing of things again | ||
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On December 19 2015 02:13 Rels wrote: @rsoul: BUT IF YOU WERE SCUM IT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE BEST SLIP EVER!!!! it looked like you had slipped you actively lurked; when Arta said "so happy to be right; Tina called it when marv first posted in the thread", it reaaaally looked like to me he didn't mean to say you actively lurked which sounded like an awesome find. =D @rayn: sry I'm not home until late at night ... but if you're still there around midnight with pleasure (= Finally: GG. Sry for ruining the game. I really think I would have made this post as scum though; I've made a similar one in resistance where I was scum. But I can see how it's "cheating" in both cases. GG DP. No slip to be found in your filter. A few things blew my mind in my scumhunt beliefs: mainly, I didn't think someone making up an explanation could be town. D2 to D3 I was just mad I couldn't find scum and I think it showed until today, where I was actually relaxed and ready to convince rayn. p: I find slips almost never find scum, and almost always just end up getting a town killed. I always find a person playing too perfectly is more suspicious than a person messing up. | ||
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