Newbie Student Mafia XVII: Fullmetal Edition - Page 14

On November 16 2015 06:24 Trfel wrote:
VisceraEyes

VisceraEyes makes two posts showing suspicion of The Shining.
+ Show Spoiler +
After these posts, VisceraEyes treats The Shining like he is town, specifically by telling The Shining how to properly play as town.
+ Show Spoiler +
Furthermore, Eversince's post on FarahBlackwing has a very large logical flaw, in that The Shining hadn't posted at the time. Eversince is comparing a townread based on actual posts to a vote with zero reason from this game, which does not work. VisceraEyes knows much better than this.

This isn't VisceraEyes pushing The Shining, this is VisceraEyes reading incorrectly and flailing wildly at The Shining with words that don't match his stance.

On November 16 2015 06:39 Trfel wrote:
Either geript knows a whole darn lot that I don't or he's mafia.

I'm reasonably happy with FarahBlackwing and The Shining as town.

On November 17 2015 05:05 Trfel wrote:
VisceraEyes (again)
Note: Eversince will be addressed in a following post

1. On Eversince and FarahBlackwing
Eversince's initial post, voting for The Shining
Eversince's later post explaining the clear flaw in the above argument:
VisceraEyes responds to this is a way that doesn't make sense at all.

Before my case on VisceraEyes and the second post above from Eversince, VisceraEyes posted these posts:

These three posts show that VisceraEyes is treating Eversince's first post seriously. He says that he likes Eversince's argument, and that he's townreading Eversince and scumreading FarahBlackwing because of it. Furthermore, he uses this repeatedly in his argument with The Shining, which apparently leads to a scumread of The Shining, shown by this post (among others):

After my case and Eversince's post, showing that Eversince's early vote on FarahBlackwing had no basis, VisceraEyes says this:Ok, so he wasn't being serious earlier. Not only did he make a joke, but then he defended his joke several times, to the point of scumreading The Shining for it.

I just can't believe this.

---

2. General
For the moment, let's assume that VisceraEyes was in fact joking with his first series of posts, and let's ignore that this makes no sense.

VisceraEyes receives a bunch of town reads after he leaves, notably from geript and ritoky.

Notice how VisceraEyes leaves in the same minute that geript posts a strong townread of him.

VisceraEyes made three posts upon return, shown below:
+ Show Spoiler [VisceraEyes' Posts] +First post is useless and strange. Why does he answer a question directed to someone else, when he's clearly not really sure?

VisceraEyes' next two posts are his thoughts about the game, and the only thoughts about the game that he's posted, assuming that his earlier posts were in jest. He says that he likes most of the people who have been posting (ok, so who doesn't he like then? not useful), and that he doesn't like Fecalfeast.

I personally don't really like this Fecalfeast read, but whatever, it's sort of up for interpretation. But this is his ONLY read.

Note that he spends a fair amount of this post responding to the townreads he's received. He's very aware of them, and this shows in his play. His activity tanked, he's not being useful or constructive, he made the terrible statement "I like most people who posted so far", which a perfect example of useless and lazy play.

---

3. Response to meta reads
+ Show Spoiler +

On November 17 2015 05:12 Trfel wrote:
As for Eversince, the same argument sort of applies. Breshke's post here explains this. Eversince made a post which she (?, sorry if I'm wrong) said isn't serious, and then defended the post on purely logical terms.

But Eversince is on drugs, and readily admitted the mistake.

I'm giving Eversince a pass for now.

I don't like scott31337's posts so far. His late entrance is very strange, I'm not used to him ignoring a game for so long after it began. He also didn't explain his reads, and followed thread sentiment. I don't see any real contributions from him so far. He doesn't seem to be trying to solve the game.

On November 17 2015 05:33 Trfel wrote:
Eh.....

Breshke has a playstyle much like my own. He doesn't post very much, he doesn't lead the thread or push things, but when he says something, it's generally really really insightful and helpful.

Breshke's only made four posts so far this game. The first post was a very good catch, and something that I'm definitely keeping in mind. I do like his read on The Shining, as well. He's also right in that The Shining's "statement of activity" isn't alignment indicative, because The Shining is extremely defensive (even as town) and posts that every single game he plays.

So, his first post is insightful, as is his second post. His third post explains his second post (responding to ritoky's question), and his fourth post is a joke.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at? Am I misunderstanding your post? I don't see how you can say that a player with only four posts is playing "safe" or not?

On November 17 2015 06:24 Trfel wrote:
Yeah, I'm either missing something quite large or VisceraEyes is mafia.

His recent posts point to the former.First post suggests that I'm town, second post suggests that I'm mafia (I didn't post in between). No conclusion at all, no push. No comments on anything else, didn't even respond to my case.

On November 17 2015 07:33 Trfel wrote:
Hm, that's at least partially false based on VisceraEyes' explanation?

I'm rereading his filter with that mindset, and I can sort of see it, but there's still a lot that is suspicious, a lot that doesn't make sense. I'm not entirely sure yet, I think I'll re-evaluate after dinner.

On November 17 2015 08:07 Trfel wrote:
I don't like VisceraEyes, but I don't really feel comfortable with lynching him right now... It's obvious that VisceraEyes hasn't read the thread super carefully, but I don't think that that makes him mafia.

VisceraEyes, when you could get to a computer, if you could post the thoughts you had on the other players, that would be very helpful.

Time to study for that exam.

On November 17 2015 08:18 Trfel wrote:
Not quite what I had in mind, but that works too.

##vote MoosyDoosy

If you ever feel like answering my question, I'm listening.

On November 17 2015 09:27 Trfel wrote:
Ugh, I hate this so much, but I guess you're probably right...

##unvote

Scott31337 or VisceraEyes stand out the most to me right now. Waiting for Fecalfeast to post his filter analysis, though.

On November 17 2015 09:43 Trfel wrote:
You had two scumreads, VisceraEyes and MoosyDoosy. You're no longer scumreading both of them.

I was just wanting your thoughts on that, that's all.

How much past experience do you have with MoosyDoosy?

Anyway, off to my exam.

On November 18 2015 00:55 Trfel wrote:
##vote scott31337

I won't be able to catch up by the deadline. But scott31337 hasn't shown critical thinking, and his activity has been pretty awful. This post shows a lack of critical thinking in particular, he's trying to say stuff, trying to make an argument, but all he really says is that MoosyDoosy is town because he's town, and because he did the same thing last game as town (which obviously does not make him town).

Scott31337 still hasn't taken a stance on me, despite saying that he would many hours ago. Given the lack of original reads and thinking in his posts, I find him getting so upset at MoosyDoosy's play difficult to believe.

On November 18 2015 01:05 Trfel wrote:
I don't want to lynch The Shining. He said that he was trying to do more work right when the game began to make up for not being able to play Monday and Tuesday, and his posting rate was much higher than it generally is. In addition to activity, his posts show attempts to gain information. Many of The Shining's scum games show fewer, larger posts to try and stay alive, rather than trying to pressure things to gain information.

FarahBlackwing's post about The Shining was very good, particularly with regards to The Shining's slight shows of emotion this game. It's very different from The Shining's most recent mafia game.

I could lynch MoosyDoosy, but I'm more confident in scott31337. MoosyDoosy is a wild card, scott31337 generally puts forward a good effort as town.

On November 18 2015 01:52 Trfel wrote:
I'm kind of here, it's a bit complicated, I'd rather not get into it.....

I think that VisceraEyes looks a bit scummy right now, but I would rather lynch scott31337.This post is the thing I hadn't considered, while I don't like the explanation it makes more sense than what I was considering before.

I haven't had enough time to fully re-evaluate VisceraEyes, but given that almost everyone is reluctant to lynch him today, it's kind of an irrelevant point for now.

On November 18 2015 04:21 Trfel wrote:
Wait, what the heck?

This push onto Breshke is so mafia-motivated. I don't trust geript at all here.

Look at scott31337's townread of geript. He just says that geript is a top town.

Notice that he repeatedly says "Trfel could be scum or he could be town" in response to me solving the game and pushing my ideas.

He never describes any difference between me and geript, just uses the fact that I had one good game as scum to avoid townreading me. But geript is better than me at mafia, by far, and scott31337 knows this. It's impossible for him not to know that geript is extremely skilled as mafia.

So now geript comes up with this push out of nowhere to prevent scott31337 from being lynched?

I don't like this one bit.

On November 18 2015 04:42 Trfel wrote:
There is clearly a direction in Breshke's filter, and there are also some very insightful comments. The latter is the huge part of Breshke's town play, and it's very present this game.

Looking through Breshke's filter, here's his direction:

Early question to Eversince, ends in town lean
Townread on The Shining
Town lean on geript and ritoky
Scum read on MoosyDoosy
Investigating VisceraEyes
Willing to lynch MoosyDoosy, Fecalfeast, and scott31337, still trying to figure out VisceraEyes
Votes for MoosyDoosy

The interesting thing here is that he's actually engaging with his scumreads and trying to get more information. He questioned VisceraEyes with a very sensible progression. His reads make sense and his pushes all have a followup.

On November 18 2015 04:43 Trfel wrote:
It's not a lack of time thing. Town with a lack of time doesn't produce scott31337's filter.

Scott31337's filter shows zero thinking and zero desire to solve the game. Town with lack of time produces a short, incomplete filter that attempts to solve the game with limited time. The two are completely different.

On November 18 2015 04:52 Trfel wrote:
Quick Summary of scott31337's Filter

Here's the reads summary of scott31337's first post.Why is the "not lynching right now but want to see more" category even included?

The reasoning is very lacking. "I'm not seeing the spark" for Eversince's posting, but just read any one Eversince post, it's very obviously pointed and shows a unique mindset. This is a really useless phrase and I don't understand how this is true.

This is an extremely useless comment. This says actually nothing. Yet he doesn't unvote until later, and has NEVER come to a conclusion about this. The random unvote timing makes no sense. The lack of analysis of my case makes no sense, he's not even trying.

The fact that he repeats this non-argument, useless comment suggests that he's just trying to avoid my argument instead of address it. He can't scumread me and he knows it, but he's avoiding townreading me and avoiding listening to what I have to say.

Finally, look at his progression on MoosyDoosy.

1. MoosyDoosy is mafia!
2. MoosyDoosy is town for martyring, he did this last game as mafia
3. Votes MoosyDoosy because he wants to kill lazy town

ZERO changed between 2 and 3. Zero. He expected that MoosyDoosy would stop martyring and actually play?

Scott31337 shows zero thinking and zero read progression. This is not a town mindset at all.

On November 18 2015 04:58 Trfel wrote:
In this post, scott31337 is treating MoosyDoosy like 100% town? What?Nothing changed. Nothing at all. Except for scott31337's read, it did a 180.

On November 19 2015 03:26 Trfel wrote:
I'll address the rest of geript's posts later. But this post is the most ridiculous.

Geript's claims are simply not true. I've tried to illustrate that by describing Breshke's thought process and read progression, Breshke's filter shows questions that are probing his suspects. And Breshke is certainly coming to conclusions, "willing to lynch" is a pretty strong conclusion.

Read Breshke's filter for yourself and it's obvious.

On November 19 2015 04:25 Trfel wrote:
Change of plans, I guess I'm not going somewhere at the deadline.

My case on VisceraEyes still stands. VisceraEyes had a sort-of plausible explanation for the main point of my case, however his recent lack of activity is extremely mafia-motivated.

He vanished right after people started scumreading him less, right after he was pretty safe from the Day 1 lynch. And he hasn't come back since. There's no risk of him being lynched tonight, so there's no point in him playing. This feels like mafia who is being lazy and playing to survive, but he knows that he won't be able to survive for too long and that's killing his motivation.

I thought that FarahBlackwing was probably town, but MoosyDoosy's case brought up several good points. FarahBlackwing's response, however, was even more suspicious. FarahBlackwing hasn't shown much determination at all lately, and her unwillingness to seriously answer the case is not at all what I would expect from town. She said she's busy today, I guess I'll give her a day before I make any conclusions.

On November 19 2015 04:57 Trfel wrote:
geript

Early read on The Shining
+ Show Spoiler +

Many of geript's posts are just criticizing others for no reason/bad reasons
+ Show Spoiler +

Finally, geript's reads on Breshke and me don't show anything.

Geript never addressed the points about my case on VisceraEyes, one of his strongest townreads. He just said that my case is awful. When I said that he never addressed my case, he posted criticisms of a few random thoughts on scott31337. He didn't even comment on my more complete case on scott31337, he commented on the extremely brief summary. He also drastically misrepresents my statements.

His read on Breshke involves a ton of claims that just aren't true.Breshke doesn't have questions that go nowhere, and he definitely has drawn conclusions. I described that in the very post that he quoted. Geript just said "no, Trfel is misrepresenting things" without addressing that my argument is based on facts which were clearly laid out in the post.

Conclusion

I'm not completely sure on geript yet. He seems really scummy, but he also has a large ego as town.

Geript, if you are town, humor me for a moment. Explain things in a way that a lesser player (aka the vast majority of this game) can understand (aka no meta, and a clear connection between evidence and conclusions). Why is Breshke mafia? Why is VisceraEyes town? Why are the points that I have brought up invalid? I've demonstrated how my conclusions come from the thread, it's your turn.

On November 19 2015 04:25 Trfel wrote:
Change of plans, I guess I'm not going somewhere at the deadline.

My case on VisceraEyes still stands. VisceraEyes had a sort-of plausible explanation for the main point of my case, however his recent lack of activity is extremely mafia-motivated.

He vanished right after people started scumreading him less, right after he was pretty safe from the Day 1 lynch. And he hasn't come back since. There's no risk of him being lynched tonight, so there's no point in him playing. This feels like mafia who is being lazy and playing to survive, but he knows that he won't be able to survive for too long and that's killing his motivation.

I thought that FarahBlackwing was probably town, but MoosyDoosy's case brought up several good points. FarahBlackwing's response, however, was even more suspicious. FarahBlackwing hasn't shown much determination at all lately, and her unwillingness to seriously answer the case is not at all what I would expect from town. She said she's busy today, I guess I'll give her a day before I make any conclusions.

On November 19 2015 07:10 Trfel wrote:
The fact that she claimed, but didn't bother going through MoosyDoosy's case point by point is really, really suspicious.

I know I'm not the only one who asked for that.

Would FarahBlackwing fakeclaim here as town? I would think not, but am I wrong?

On November 19 2015 07:14 Trfel wrote:
I can't see this coming from a person who would fakeclaim here as town. That settles that.

On November 19 2015 07:31 Trfel wrote:
FarahBlackwing, why do you care so much about figuring out who the vigilante is?

On November 19 2015 07:35 Trfel wrote:
Why does it matter so much to you if the vigilante claims now or not? The vigilante will claim when the time is correct in their own judgement.

Like, imagine that the vigilante claims right now. How does this help you more as opposed to the vigilante claiming later?

On November 19 2015 07:45 Trfel wrote:
Ugh, I hate being sick, it makes it so hard for me to think T.T

I'm really, really considering lynching FarahBlackwing here.

The only reason for her to claim this early is that she doesn't have enough time to properly defend herself.So she's really busy, but she spent time trying to guess who the vigilante is (of all things) instead of responding to the case? Instead of trying to find mafia?
This is in no way a justification for the time spent.

To me, it almost feels like FarahBlackwing's attempts to find the vigilante were to figure out what the thread influence would look like post-claim, which is useful to know if she's mafia. Especially if she's mafia trying to do something like fakeclaim.

Fecalfeast doesn't have a large amount of thread presence, and imagining for a moment that he became confirmed town by claiming vigilante, I don't think that much would change. Meaning that mafia thread influence would be maximized, encouraging a fakeclaim.

On November 19 2015 07:52 Trfel wrote:
Then can you please answer the points that MoosyDoosy brought up?

Can you please explain how it is beneficial to try and figure out who the vigilante is?

On November 19 2015 08:00 Trfel wrote:
Okay, so let's assume for a moment that you're right, and the vigilante is stupid for not claiming.

We find who the vigilante is, then we know who is stupid. Yay?

The vigilante wouldn't avoid claiming if they're under a sufficient amount of suspicion anyway, no matter what. So you can assume that the vigilante isn't that highly suspected. So IT DOESN'T MATTER.

On November 19 2015 08:23 Trfel wrote:
Of course the vigilante will claim if they're at risk of being lynched. That was never in question.

Assuming that the vigilante is not currently at risk of being lynched, which is an extremely safe assumption, why do you care about the vigilante claiming more than you do finding mafia?

On November 19 2015 08:25 Trfel wrote:
Sure.

##vote FarahBlackwing

On November 19 2015 08:58 Trfel wrote:
This post was made 15 minutes before the deadline.

Six minutes after the deadline.

Breshke and Fecalfeast both did not make any posts in between. There is zero reason for FarahBlackwing's read to change.

This is the only piece of scumhunting that FarahBlackwing has done today, if you call it that. She's made a ton of posts trying to find the vigilante, and a ton of posts saying that she isn't going to explain anything or work with anyone. But no time to actually find scum. Or perhaps more accurately, no desire to actually find scum.

I can't really see how there is any doubt.

On November 20 2015 07:50 Trfel wrote:
Ritoky, how stupid do you think I am?

Do you really think that as mafia with a ton of momentum, I'd go into Day 2 and push an un-cc'd blue? Just to back off when they replace out? Instead of all of the other fairly easy targets in the thread?

Like, why would mafia ever do this?

FarahBlackwing's play made no sense at all, I couldn't possibly see it coming from town. I still can't. If Damdred is town, hopefully mafia will kill him soon.

On November 20 2015 07:54 Trfel wrote:
I just don't understand this, at all. This is why I play mafia so infrequently now.

So many people with their stupid unexplained reads. Who don't listen to what I have to say. I get ignored all of the time.

At least people paid a token of attention to me this game, only to blame me for the mislynch and decide that I'm obviously scum because of it. Clearly it wasn't their fault at all for following me.

So.

Dumb.

On November 20 2015 07:56 Trfel wrote:
Like, I'm pouring so much time into this game. During my exam week, when I said I'd be busy.

And now I'm being lynched because "geript said..." When geript didn't do a single towny thing all game long?

I don't care that geript's flipped town, that DOES NOT make him right. AS PROVEN BY MY ROLE PM.

Use a bit of sense.

On November 20 2015 08:55 Trfel wrote:
Fecalfeast

Here the posts that Fecalfeast has made this game that show his read progression.
+ Show Spoiler +
So, there are a few trends shown by the above posts.

1. Whoever posts is town

• Disformation from mafia to null (?) for this post
  
• VisceraEyes from mafia to null due to interacting with him
  
• MoosyDoosy town for being completely obnoxious
  
• Backs off on Trfel because he is angry

Furthermore, all of these are really, really weak. One by one:

The disinformation post that caused Fecalfeast to change his read isn't that great. It's the first actual reads post that disinformation has made all game, and it was only made on request. But this caused a dramatic change in Fecalfeast's read? Enough to make him never seriously discuss disformation again?

The way he downplayed his scumread on VisceraEyes is terrible. "I side with trfel on VE for sure", leading to a townread on Trfel and a scumread on VisceraEyes. Then, "ve seems ok now that i'm interacting with him" and "He's explained his reasoning for voting me further and my earlier scumread was entirely sheeped from trfel". First, VisceraEyes' Fecalfeast read wasn't a part of my case on VisceraEyes. The fact that this is what Fecalfeast mentioned, while also saying that his scumread came purely from my case, does not make sense at all.

For MoosyDoosy, his reasons are debatable, but the important thing is that he voted for MoosyDoosy again later. More on this later.

At the same time as Fecalfeast backed off of me (Trfel), he pushed onto Breshke. And he hadn't mentioned Breshke before. This push came out of nowhere. He said he'd rather lynch Breshke because I was "angry".

Every single time, there's a person who makes some posts, and Fecalfeast removes his scumread on that person. This is every single time that Fecalfeast has removed a scumread on someone. This reeks of "don't hurt me, I'm not scumreading you!"

2. "Decision" about Day 1 lynch target

Fecalfeast first includes MoosyDoosy as mafia in his list (no reason given), then votes MoosyDoosy for martyring. Then he unvotes MoosyDoosy because he thinks MoosyDoosy is just that obnoxious when he rolls town.

At this point, Fecalfeast had zero scum reads. So, he went back and voted for MoosyDoosy again, reasoning being that "giving him a free pass for throwing a tantrum is lame". It's noteworthy that at this time, there was a lot of push for lynching MoosyDoosy. This vote on MoosyDoosy is extremely opportunistic and seems to be a patch for Fecalfeast having zero reads.

Ritoky, one of the game's highest-influence players, then says that MoosyDoosy is exempt from being lynched. Fecalfeast immediately says he will look into scott31337. And then says he could kill scott31337. He doesn't care one bit about who is lynched, which is shown by his post saying that town ignoring MoosyDoosy causes them to automatically lose LYLO if MoosyDoosy is town, but ultimately vote for scott31337 instead of MoosyDoosy with no new reasons presented.

The progression is basically:

• MoosyDoosy is scum
  
• MoosyDoosy could do this as town
  
• I'm going to vote MoosyDoosy just because
  
• Scott31337 could be mafia, I could lynch him
  
• MoosyDoosy should be dealt with sooner rather than later
  
• Votes for scott31337 at deadline

Which makes no sense. Fecalfeast doesn't are at all about his vote. And why should he, when it's between two town players?

3. Other factors

I don't really have time to explain this as in detail, but namely his play on Day 3. He said that he didn't like disformation, but he never followed up on this or explained this at all. He said that I (Trfel) was suspicious primarily because of night kill analysis, but never actually addressed any of my posts or arguments like I asked him to, and like he said he would. Then he moved to Breshke, who he only mentioned once before in his filter, with a TOWN LEAN. Okay.

Conclusion

Fecalfeast is always taking the easy route, always making the easy reads. He's always keeping one scum read and when that stops being easy, he's just moving to the new easy scum read. His apathy towards the Day 1 lynch between two townies and forced read switches are extremely suspicious.

On November 20 2015 09:06 Trfel wrote:
##vote Fecalfeast

Yup.

I guess Fecalfeast is never mafia, because he doesn't have any scumreads, so he can't ever be wrong. Because being wrong makes you scum.

On November 20 2015 12:24 Trfel wrote:
I like how of all people, Fecalfeast chose to make a post on Breshke.

The person suspected by nearly everyone in the game, the person who hasn't posted in 24 hours.

If that's not the easiest push in the world, then I don't know what is.

On November 21 2015 00:15 Trfel wrote:
Either I missed something, or Fecalfeast is mafia. There is nothing in between.

I don't understand how everyone can ignore me, no matter how much work I put in.

On November 21 2015 05:26 Trfel wrote:
I don't see how Fecalfeast can be town here.

Breshke was obviously bussed. My push on Fecalfeast would have given mafia a golden opportunity to switch off of Breshke, but nothing happened.

In addition to all of Fecalfeast's play, that absolutely confirms him as mafia.

On November 23 2015 07:51 Trfel wrote:
To expand:

I've presented a complete argument for why Fecalfeast is mafia. Furthermore, he is basically guaranteed mafia because mafia didn't push onto him and away from Breshke after I posed this argument (the more I think about this, it's not 100% that mafia would do this, but it's extremely likely that they would have pushed it more if they could).

Fecalfeast has not responded to my arguments at all. No one else has suggested why anything is at all invalid, either.

So why are people townreading him?

On November 22 2015 14:29 Trfel wrote:
I honestly don't want to play this game any more. It's miserable.

I get ignored, then everyone calls me scum for stupid nonsense while never responding to anything I'm trying to say. Scum is going to win this game because no one is freaking listening.

Fecalfeast is mafia and needs to be lynched. Onegu is likely mafia as well.

I'll look through ritoky's filter tonight and then disformation's sometime tomorrow.