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On August 11 2015 07:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am pretty sure Slam being lynched had little to do with his inactivity.
I'll say this. The slam lynch was an accident that turned out well. Don't get me wrong, Slam was obviously mafia and Clarity wasn't likely town (despite a few people saying otherwise). Town just sort of lucked into that lynch somehow because they didn't want to lynch other people not because they actually gave good reasons for Clarity/Slam to be mafia.
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On August 11 2015 08:33 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2015 07:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am pretty sure Slam being lynched had little to do with his inactivity. I'll say this. The slam lynch was an accident that turned out well. Don't get me wrong, Slam was obviously mafia and Clarity wasn't likely town (despite a few people saying otherwise). Town just sort of lucked into that lynch somehow because they didn't want to lynch other people not because they actually gave good reasons for Clarity/Slam to be mafia.
ITS LIKE WE ACTUALLY HAD TIME TO TALK ABOUT THE GAME AFTER D1 THR MIND MELD IS REAL
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On August 11 2015 08:33 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2015 07:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am pretty sure Slam being lynched had little to do with his inactivity. I'll say this. The slam lynch was an accident that turned out well. Don't get me wrong, Slam was obviously mafia and Clarity wasn't likely town (despite a few people saying otherwise). Town just sort of lucked into that lynch somehow because they didn't want to lynch other people not because they actually gave good reasons for Clarity/Slam to be mafia.
yeah but there were not any good reasons for ANYONE in the game (including Cava) to be mafia at that point soooo....
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
Did town win this game in 2-1 LYLO? Impressive.
On August 11 2015 07:03 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I honestly don't know why I even sign up for these games anymore.
Though I guess I lasted a long time as confirmed mafia.
So that's something.
There's no shame in a close loss like this! You're a capable fellow, OWS and I hope to get the opportunity to play with you again at some point.
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On August 11 2015 08:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2015 08:33 geript wrote:On August 11 2015 07:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am pretty sure Slam being lynched had little to do with his inactivity. I'll say this. The slam lynch was an accident that turned out well. Don't get me wrong, Slam was obviously mafia and Clarity wasn't likely town (despite a few people saying otherwise). Town just sort of lucked into that lynch somehow because they didn't want to lynch other people not because they actually gave good reasons for Clarity/Slam to be mafia. yeah but there were not any good reasons for ANYONE in the game (including Cava) to be mafia at that point soooo....
I disagree. When Damdred posts my D1/D2 analysis, you'll not that on D1 I thought that Clarity was the best D2 lynch. Considering his wasted vote (as there's likely at least 1 mafia off the wagon) in addition to the fact that he hadn't made a single good post all day long, there's good reason to suspect that slot is mafia. My issue with the D2 lynch is that most people touted Clarity/Slam as essentially "Not GB" as I best recall. That's opting into a good lynch for not great reasons. For me, there's a difference between town pushing a good lynch target for a good reason and town pushing a good lynch target for a not very good reason. The fact that it was an accident ended up being quite beneficial if anyone had done vote analysis; IIRC, Palmer even made the "I think 1 mafia bussed D1 and 1 was off the wagon" post that was similar to my thoughts after D1 but never followed up on it. However, the problem is that town felt better about themselves without actually analyzing anything and it, IMO, promoted a series of bad lynches and bad pushes that followed.
Just like when multiple strong players are thinking about/analyzing the game critically and it sharpens each of their points, multiple people not thinking and not analyzing the game always seems to promote that sort of dumbing effect.
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United Kingdom10443 Posts
On August 11 2015 08:59 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2015 08:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 11 2015 08:33 geript wrote:On August 11 2015 07:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am pretty sure Slam being lynched had little to do with his inactivity. I'll say this. The slam lynch was an accident that turned out well. Don't get me wrong, Slam was obviously mafia and Clarity wasn't likely town (despite a few people saying otherwise). Town just sort of lucked into that lynch somehow because they didn't want to lynch other people not because they actually gave good reasons for Clarity/Slam to be mafia. yeah but there were not any good reasons for ANYONE in the game (including Cava) to be mafia at that point soooo.... I disagree. When Damdred posts my D1/D2 analysis, you'll not that on D1 I thought that Clarity was the best D2 lynch. Considering his wasted vote (as there's likely at least 1 mafia off the wagon) in addition to the fact that he hadn't made a single good post all day long, there's good reason to suspect that slot is mafia. My issue with the D2 lynch is that most people touted Clarity/Slam as essentially "Not GB" as I best recall. That's opting into a good lynch for not great reasons. For me, there's a difference between town pushing a good lynch target for a good reason and town pushing a good lynch target for a not very good reason. The fact that it was an accident ended up being quite beneficial if anyone had done vote analysis; IIRC, Palmer even made the "I think 1 mafia bussed D1 and 1 was off the wagon" post that was similar to my thoughts after D1 but never followed up on it. However, the problem is that town felt better about themselves without actually analyzing anything and it, IMO, promoted a series of bad lynches and bad pushes that followed. Just like when multiple strong players are thinking about/analyzing the game critically and it sharpens each of their points, multiple people not thinking and not analyzing the game always seems to promote that sort of dumbing effect.
lol ok
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Well vote analysis are usually shit on D1.
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lol @ calling the slam lynch accidental
it may have been manipulative on the part of the two players pushing it...but accidental? not so much
that's like the one thing i did right all game! \o/
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On August 11 2015 09:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Well vote analysis are usually shit on D1.
Not really. VCA is very good for narrowing a suspect pool and giving you a reason to analyze someone's play. It's playing the statistics of how people act in general. It's good for giving you suspicion but very rarely good for giving damning evidence.
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So where does Clarity/Slam become a "bad lynch" based on vote analysis from D1?
Or if you are going to say they should have been lynched because of the vote analysis why is it EXACTLY their slot that is the mafia off wagon?
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GG!! Yayyy Rsoul looked really towie the last day.
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On August 11 2015 09:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So where does Clarity/Slam become a "bad lynch" based on vote analysis from D1?
Or if you are going to say they should have been lynched because of the vote analysis why is it EXACTLY their slot that is the mafia off wagon?
I think Clarity/Slam becomes a good lynch from the D1 vote analysis. IIRC 3 people threw away their votes: Rsoulin, Clarity and idk Snickers. Tina looked pretty townish D1 and Snickers was town albeit fucking crazy. Clarity was meh.
I'm not making the argument the VCA points to Clarity exactly as scum. Rather, it makes him (and other people) a good suspect for being scum. VCA is not a replacement for analysis; it's a good tool to use to help you find who to look at in a large majority of cases.
VCA of D2 points towards Scott, OWS and Onegu in my experience (D1 bus more common than D2 bus after D1 scum lynch) as all 3 were on the wagon D1 but not on D2. Plus Onegu and OWS had throw away votes on D2.
The point I was making wasn't that Clarity/Slam was a bad lynch; he's quite obviously a decent lynch at worst. The point I was trying to make is that the reasons for selecting the D2 lynch used in the game, were not very good. I can't remember any sort of case even summary from D2 as to why to lynch Clarity/Slam. I don't even remember people giving a reason for calling him mafia except perhaps some comment in passing. It seemed like the D2 lynch came down to, "I think Clarity/Slam is mafia", "Clarity/Slam is mostly inactive," and "GB is a bad lynch/likely town." The second is an ok reason to lynch someone but very coin flippy. The third isn't a good reason to lynch Clarity/Slam, just a good reason to lynch someone else not GB. The first is a fucking opinion. I think licorice is the best fucking candy ever, but it doesn't make it so. I can analyze why the chemical compound of licorice is so fucking tasty and explain how it ends up hitting both the sweet and umami taste buds while also providing a pleasing texture. I'm saying, "Reasons existed for wanting to lynch Clarity/Slam. Despite those reasons, people didn't push them. Rather, they made 'gut calls' on his alignment; which IMO tends to be low accuracy."
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The "not GB" isn't true, geript. If that was so, boxerfred would be dead (as he was going to be), but we actually landed the lynch on clarity. It's NOT because it wasn't me, it was because 5 people thought that clarity was scum and decided to lynch outside the 2 main wagons at that time.
No shenanigans is "an option", IMO
The real problem I saw around N2 was that town never seemed to realize the position that they were in. There's like 10 people; if you find 4 other town (past the NK) you have an autowin. Your goal should as much (if not more) to be unlynchable obvious town than it is to find scum. Like it should be super easy to find 4 other town and convince them that you're town and that they're town too. You still want to his the last scum earlier rather than later; but it really doesn't matter so long as you're able to find 4 other strong town reads on D3, 3 on D4, 2 on D5, etc.
This is very good, but that is basically what town thought. We were lynching by PoE. Obi got to the top townies for most people, so that's why the "series of mislynches" happened. You can see nobody was actually doing work to find the real scum. People were discussing like "ok, I think A B and C are town, who do we lynch today outside of this?"
Obi's play was very good. No matter what people say, not even the obs QT had a consensus.
By the way, can someone explain me the logic behind vote count analysis? Where do you people get the idea that there must be a Mafia bussing and a mafia outside the main wagon?
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The best VCA done is during lylo when there are more than one scum alive. Anything earlier is crapshoot. In this game I just thought bussing day one on the framer was extremely risky unless one of them was a GF. I would have guessed a cop was in the game and if cop doesnt claim on one green check obi might get check or enough green checks to add up to make a difference.
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On August 11 2015 15:19 GlowingBear wrote:Obi's play was very good. No matter what people say, not even the obs QT had a consensus.
By the way, can someone explain me the logic behind vote count analysis? Where do you people get the idea that there must be a Mafia bussing and a mafia outside the main wagon?
1. Re:perspectives. That was mine and iirc Damdred's as well as outside observers. Take that for what it is.
2. Obi's play. In my experience, it was fine from what I saw. In my experience with this type of situation, in LYLO +1 or so (sometimes +2) you need to make a move. You really need to be controlling the lynches because who you NK is relatively set. By this I mean that your kill order needs to be planned out relatively firmly early on; perhaps a bit flexible still, but it's such that around LYLO +1 you're deciding the last few lynches. You don't have to be town leader, but you need to have enough influence. I imagine he might have been able to craft a better 5 to head into LYLO with. I'm not certain on that at all as I haven't read much of the last few days, but that's my initial impression.
3. VCA. It's just experience really. A vast majority of the time when mafia is lynched on D1 in a 3 mafia setup, there is at least 1 mafia on the wagon. I'd even wager that at about a 70% rate on a D1 mafia lynch in a 3 mafia setup there's exactly 1 on and 1 off. I'd potentially exclude newbie games there as newer players act in a less predictable or patterned manner. Over the years I've played that pattern seems to hold true. I think it goes back to the instinctive desire to hide. Mafia feel like associating together too strongly is more likely to cost them the game so they're more likely to split their voting power when all 3 are alive.
The times when this doesn't apply in my experience is the hard bus (where they're trying to buy town cred), when mafia is mostly inactive (and aren't really paying attention to their partners) and newer players (who are less 'molded' and just behave differently). Hard bus tends to leave 2 on the wagon. Inactive can still have the 1-on,1-off split but is more likely to have 2 off.
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On August 11 2015 08:33 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2015 07:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am pretty sure Slam being lynched had little to do with his inactivity. I'll say this. The slam lynch was an accident that turned out well. Don't get me wrong, Slam was obviously mafia and Clarity wasn't likely town (despite a few people saying otherwise). Town just sort of lucked into that lynch somehow because they didn't want to lynch other people not because they actually gave good reasons for Clarity/Slam to be mafia.
that isn't luck, though, that's good play.
if you don't want to lynch a bunch of townies and you can't find a reason not to lynch mafia so you do, that's just good play, even though it looks kinda accidental.
edit: I followed very little of the game, but followed a bit more towards the end. My perspective:
Palmar (before he got killed) was kinda obviously town. I understand I have a particular read on him, but that makes the game easier to me. His points on Snickers and scott were really good too.
So I hadn't read a single one of scott's posts, but I knew his lynch was bad. Palmar told me the framer flipped d1, so:
1. scott was greenchecked after the framer flipped. he's very likely town
2. Palmar gave an amazing reason for scott to be town. he's very likely town.
3. the mafia (whoever he was) NIGHTKILLED PALMAR. If scott is mafia, he decided to shoot the person who had the absolute strongest reason for him to be town. scott never kills Palmar in that spot. He cannot be mafia.
GB was all over the place but productive; town.
Onegu was named VT with only one other blue, didn't read any of his other posts, but v likely town.
rsoultin made several very long posts that actually had direction, this strongly indicates town.
That left Obi. I hadn't really read any of his posts, but you get there by PoE. I saw someone gave a reason about voting one mafia over another early in the game? That's a weak reason for someone to be town. Someone picked up during the scott lynch that Obi was kinda passively saying "why not Onegu?" - this is mafia needing options.
I would say i didn't read many boxerfred posts but the posts I read he didn't seem obviously town, so I could understand town lynching him when they did. It kinda had to be done almost, to get him out the way.
Probably Obi should have killed Onegu over Palmar at some point. He did a great job making it to lylo after the atrocious performance of the rest of his team though.
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Hey guys I just wanna apologize to everyone, especially OWS and HtS.
OWS you played great and you nearly pulled it off somehow which is super impressive, sorry I let you down.
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Onegu was lynchable.
Palmar was not.
You know something is fucked when your idea of winning consists of "lynch the green check, THEN lynch the roleclaim in lylo to win."
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Role/action list updated FWIW.
If anyone has any feedback about the game setup/post-restriction or anything else they want to mention regarding my approach to this game give me a shout. I'm always looking to improve my hosting and I do care about the experience people have playing my games.
I do appreciate everyone staying mostly civil this game, it got a little heated I think D2/N2 but for the most part everyone was cool, and I appreciate that.
I felt looking at Ver's/Palmar's post restrictions and my last Down Under game, 4 pages for m13 per 72 hours I felt was relatively fair, and Ver's idea of max 10 post donations seemed a great way to give some flexibility in the event someone found themselves getting wagoned, etc. I know for Down Under 2, someone mentioned 20 posts for the night phase was too little so giving some flexibility between day and night should have hopefully solved that problem.
I think we had about 6-7 postcount warnings (which is what I would have expected with the given player roster) and there was one day that Snickers reached 118/118 posts after 4 waves of donations but everyone seemed conscious of where they were at even when filters went down with the upgrade.
Also there were some questions regarding setup. I personally wanted a slightly reduced emphasis on roles, which is why I only gave two blue roles and went for a simple DT v framer deal, which gives town 4 mislynches to lose no matter what.
Maybe I should have swapped the named town for a 1-shot something, I've not seen such a role in an m13.
Finally there was questioning regarding the replacement for Clarity. For what I have gathered and based on conversations I've had with other veteran hosts, Night 2 is the latest people will get replaced. That to me would appear relatively standard across the board.
I believe one individual mentioned he didn't like how late in the cycle a replacement could happen and this I know had not come up in those conversations, I believe Clarity was officially replaced out with about 4-5h left. I know I wouldn't have replaced out with less than 2 hours though, but at the time I did feel 4-5h was ample enough time.
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EPT
