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Breshke
The main point against Breshke is the lack of original thought and original pushes from him.
I also notice a lot of instances of Breshke justifying his own play where it isn't really necessary. Townies tend to be overly defensive, so I give him the benefit of the doubt (especially since he's been pushed for much of the game), but it just keeps looking worse and worse to me.
+ Show Spoiler +Here's an example of his first read of the game. On April 21 2015 09:31 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 09:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On April 21 2015 09:24 yamato77 wrote:
I told wave he'd be the day 1 lynch
let's make it happen, people
##vote: waveofshadow I'm ok with any lynch that isn't me since I need to overtake kita in the not lynched as town percentage tab. Therefore, any lynch that is not me furthers this condition and I support this lynch. ##Vote WaveofShadow tentative town read for this post. On April 21 2015 09:34 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 09:32 rsoultin wrote:On April 21 2015 09:31 Breshke wrote:On April 21 2015 09:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On April 21 2015 09:24 yamato77 wrote:
I told wave he'd be the day 1 lynch
let's make it happen, people
##vote: waveofshadow I'm ok with any lynch that isn't me since I need to overtake kita in the not lynched as town percentage tab. Therefore, any lynch that is not me furthers this condition and I support this lynch. ##Vote WaveofShadow tentative town read for this post. lol seriously? xP Yeah haha all jokes aside in my limited experiance with art ive never seen him mention stats before so him referencing town stats and relating it to this game just seems like a weird way for a scum artanis to open. This is obviously very weak hence the tentative part. His read was obviously tentative the first time, he didn't really need to clarify it in the second post. For a read that he seems to feel is this weak, he shouldn't really post it except to generate discussion (in which this final sentence really doesn't need to be added at all). This example alone doesn't say very much, but there are many, many similar examples.
Breshke just doesn't have the content production that I expect from him, either. He's mostly asking questions that don't seem to go anywhere. His questions are okay, but they don't provide enough insight to make up for analysis.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 22 2015 10:50 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2015 06:35 WaveofShadow wrote:
Wtf this pressure on Artanis is fucking weird.
Like I'm super cynical that palmar and BH will ever contribute and I have an idea Artanis knows where I'm coming from, but these points of attack are weird and putting words in his mouth. Yamato what you said doesn't even make any sesne
Can't quote atm cause on phone but how is what you said even remotely what Artanis is doing?
And rsoul you get bored a lot for someone who is talking nonstop. I really really like this post. Wave joins artanis in my "can't see lynching" list. If wave is mafia his frustration this game is from him being wagoned early so being on the back foot trying to survive from the get go. The stuff about yamato's push is not really alignment indicative for him even though I fully agree with his view point. I'm not sure if i can explain this well but the last sentence on rsoul seems like it couldnt come from a scum wave as why would he randomly antagonize someone. Like he is clearly frustrated and if he is frustrated scum he would be trying to make friends not trying to piss people off. What a weird read. Here's his thought process here. I like this post from WaveofShadow, so I don't want to lynch him today. Here's a bunch of reasons that some scumreads on WaveofShadow aren't valid, as they are non alignment indicative. The wording "being on the back foot trying to survive from the get go" seems a bit strange, since town should never be playing to survive, but rather playing to catch scum. And then he actually mentions the quoted post, explaining why he thinks that it makes WaveofShadow town. But it's a rather weak read in my opinion. And this post just doesn't make sense from a town perspective to me at all. I also note that Breshke's explanations for his reads come upon request, generally not at the time he makes his reads. For someone who is so willing to justify himself, and for someone with good townreads, his townreads lack explanation even after questioned, but even moreso before. Breshke's stance on Blazinghand is really weird as well. His vote on Blazinghand is initially a policy vote, and then Blazinghand posts. Breshke's posts focused in "this case is bad, Blazinghand could have created this as scum", and then ended up not pushing Blazinghand at all, asking for more time for the lynch, but still wanting to lynch Blazinghand. I just don't understand how Breshke can want to lynch Blazinghand, but not enough to actually push for it, and want to delay the lynch for more, but not enough to unvote.
I read Breshke's Day 1 filter. And to be honest, I don't really think that I need to read the rest of it. There are many things that I can't see coming from Breshke, and I have a much easier time seeing yamato77's play coming from town.
Breshke and yamato77 are probably the best two lynches, but I think that lynching Breshke is by far the best choice.
I'll try to check in when I can, but I may not be back much until End of Day. Either way, I don't think I want to lynch yamato77 before Breshke anyway, so if me not switching to yamato77 results in another cycle, then so be it.
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I'm back and thought about the game a lot in the car and concluded yamato is roughly 95% mafia. Points to follow, should be in time for lynch but you can move your votes already if you want.
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On May 03 2015 08:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'm back and thought about the game a lot in the car and concluded yamato is roughly 95% mafia. Points to follow, should be in time for lynch but you can move your votes already if you want. Talk quickly? Not sure I have much more time.
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Basic idea is that wave-yamato interactions make a ton of sense for scum-scum as one of them was bound to get lynched that day so they went for max cred. It can be shown that yamato didn't actually care about getting wave lynched over him, just about looking good post flip by the way he was flipping off on me for searching shitty reasons to make a decision as well as not really having an answer to your case.
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Wave-Breshke as scum-scum also doesn't make sense because you have an experienced scum player in Wave and a pretty piss-poor scum player in Breshke and they hard townread each other. Sure, it's potentially a great tactic but how likely is it to actually occur? Not very imo. Also lots of genuine posts by Breshke in retarded things that I've pointed out. One that I haven't pointed out yet is how he instantly mentioned that he read Damdred as blue. I'd imagine scum would be a little more careful with stuff like that.
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Coupled with the already weird Yamato-Wave interactions that Godmar pointed out before.
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On May 03 2015 08:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Wave-Breshke as scum-scum also doesn't make sense because you have an experienced scum player in Wave and a pretty piss-poor scum player in Breshke and they hard townread each other. Sure, it's potentially a great tactic but how likely is it to actually occur? Not very imo. Also lots of genuine posts by Breshke in retarded things that I've pointed out. One that I haven't pointed out yet is how he instantly mentioned that he read Damdred as blue. I'd imagine scum would be a little more careful with stuff like that. I don't have a chance to fact check what you're saying, but I guess that makes sense. Hm, I still think that the Breshke lynch is pretty solid.
Also, I don't think that you can infer much from the high-level interactions between the two players. It's possible that (as mafia) Breshke and WaveofShadow hard townread each other precisely because they didn't think we would expect it.
One thing to check is, WaveofShadow did have an extremely poorly explained townread on Breshke. Did he make it seem more that way when it was getting clear he was dying (thus incriminating Breshke), or was it a weak townread all along? IE does it look like he's trying to incriminate Breshke or desperately defend him?
Be back in a few minutes, then probably out until End of Day.
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On May 03 2015 08:26 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Coupled with the already weird Yamato-Wave interactions that Godmar pointed out before. Yamato77 acted like that to everyone, though. Not specific to WaveofShadow.
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And the fact that Town Yamato is never this careless about getting lynched.
How I read how D2 went down is that Yamato/Wave decided that one of them was likely to get lynched and made two plans; one for each of them getting lynched. The preferred case was likely Yamato (which explains why he didn't really read Wave as much) since Wave's a much better scumplayer in terms of activity. Through Wave hard scumreading Yamato and not considering Breshke, at the time lynchbait, he'd come out looking good enough to potentially secure a mislynch with the help of Breshke on either Trfel, me, or maybe even Rsoultin somehow. After that, he could turn on Breshke, whom still townread him.
The alternative was covered by Wave going hard after Yamato, making him look relatively better post flip. Yamato helped in this by going after the reasons people were using to read them rather than using every ounce to secure Wave gets lynched over him.
This also explains Yamato's lack of motivation later on. He tried pressing something out, but his half-assed towncase on Rsoultin and even more half-assed scumread on Palmar didn't actually contain any critical thought which a Town Yamato determined to solve the game would most certainly have.
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Sorry, gotta go.
I guess I stay on Breskhe for now. If no lynching is necessary for this cycle, so be it.
Lynching Breshke and yamato77 will most likely win the game, regardless of the order anyway. And with that in mind, it's just simpler to lynch Breshke first and not try and wake up Palmar. But don't let that change your decision.
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On May 03 2015 08:28 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 08:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Wave-Breshke as scum-scum also doesn't make sense because you have an experienced scum player in Wave and a pretty piss-poor scum player in Breshke and they hard townread each other. Sure, it's potentially a great tactic but how likely is it to actually occur? Not very imo. Also lots of genuine posts by Breshke in retarded things that I've pointed out. One that I haven't pointed out yet is how he instantly mentioned that he read Damdred as blue. I'd imagine scum would be a little more careful with stuff like that. I don't have a chance to fact check what you're saying, but I guess that makes sense. Hm, I still think that the Breshke lynch is pretty solid. Also, I don't think that you can infer much from the high-level interactions between the two players. It's possible that (as mafia) Breshke and WaveofShadow hard townread each other precisely because they didn't think we would expect it.One thing to check is, WaveofShadow did have an extremely poorly explained townread on Breshke. Did he make it seem more that way when it was getting clear he was dying (thus incriminating Breshke), or was it a weak townread all along? IE does it look like he's trying to incriminate Breshke or desperately defend him? Be back in a few minutes, then probably out until End of Day.
It makes sense to think that way because objectively you're probably right in that it would make us think that way. However, I don't think it's something anyone actually does precisely because they fear people thinking about it this way. It's extremely risky and I don't think it's likely it occurred here.
Wave definitely strengthened his townread on Breshke a lot as he was going down.
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Counting the Votes:
Yamato(1)- Artanis[Xp]
Breskhe(3)- rsoultin, Palmar, Trfel
until the possible day end
With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch
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Trfel, give me a leap of faith and lynch Yamato.
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On May 03 2015 08:35 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Trfel, give me a leap of faith and lynch Yamato.
On the condition that we lynch you and not Breshke tomorrow if you're wrong
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On May 03 2015 08:42 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 08:35 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Trfel, give me a leap of faith and lynch Yamato. On the condition that we lynch you and not Breshke tomorrow if you're wrong
Why would I do that? It's possible I'm wrong. I just don't think it's very likely.
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eh
i dunnae artie. it's plausible. but it's like the very definition of wifom, your entire argument. are you the type of man who would put poison into your own drink
- scum!yamato
or into mine
-town!breshke
obviously wave wanted to take a dive over his scum partner because he was the goon. are you forgetting that? the blue role was still out there at the time
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i really don't see how yamato can't play this was as town. you're going to have to show me how he can't. breshke has never played this way as town in all the games i've played with him, which is why i've been pushing so hard
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On May 03 2015 08:56 rsoultin wrote:
eh
i dunnae artie. it's plausible. but it's like the very definition of wifom, your entire argument. are you the type of man who would put poison into your own drink
- scum!yamato
or into mine
-town!breshke
obviously wave wanted to take a dive over his scum partner because he was the goon. are you forgetting that? the blue role was still out there at the time
Does the other scum even have a role? I figured it would've specified since it just says two red vs one blue 6 town. I'd imagine the other scum is a goon too.
That's also not my entire argument. I think the way Yamato played is unlikely to come from Town Yamato because it felt like he was setting up for post flip much more than actually bothering about who got lynched, plus his demotivation seems much more likely to come from scum yamato that knows he can't win since Palmar and I aren't getting lynched over Town Yamato actually looking to solve the game.
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On May 03 2015 08:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 08:56 rsoultin wrote:
eh
i dunnae artie. it's plausible. but it's like the very definition of wifom, your entire argument. are you the type of man who would put poison into your own drink
- scum!yamato
or into mine
-town!breshke
obviously wave wanted to take a dive over his scum partner because he was the goon. are you forgetting that? the blue role was still out there at the time Does the other scum even have a role? I figured it would've specified since it just says two red vs one blue 6 town. I'd imagine the other scum is a goon too. That's also not my entire argument. I think the way Yamato played is unlikely to come from Town Yamato because it felt like he was setting up for post flip much more than actually bothering about who got lynched, plus his demotivation seems much more likely to come from scum yamato that knows he can't win since Palmar and I aren't getting lynched over Town Yamato actually looking to solve the game.
if there's a flipped doctor, yes, most likely o.0 it's possible for two goons. you've played more games than me, but i've never actually seen that ever in any of mine
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lol >< in all honesty i have yet to see an impressive yamato. it's not the nicest thing to say, but it's certainly the truth
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EPT
