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Regarding VA I'm meta reading him, and I have yet to play an actual game with a scum VA. After my initial consideration of his explanation for posting early (which he acknowledged), he's hardly done jack all, which I feel is consistent with his town meta. I made the mistake of getting him lynched once for inactivity D1 with several players flying in my face saying "that's his meta" and it was.
I am hesitant to lynch him for that reason, even policy based on what I know of his play.
That said:
On February 15 2015 11:12 Town Puppy wrote:
And I keep commenting on BH's RNG lynch because I don't have a good reason yet to think anything of Vayne. I haven't seen anything to make me think he's town or mafia. There's a pretty real chance that Vayne gets lynched today, so I have to decide for myself if I'm okay with this happening or not. In absence of Vayne being clearly town, figuring out a bunch of townies that aren't Vayne makes me feel better about him getting lynched, because for every person who steps up and shows themselves to be town, that's one more incremental step toward Vayne being mafia by POE.
I think you are in a position to at least give some meta-read of him. You were in NYE party mafia with me, I realise you were mafia in that game, but you should have some comparison between VA's play that game and what he's doing now.
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Canada11355 Posts
On February 15 2015 13:47 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 07:08 Fecalfeast wrote:HtS has trouble reading BH's post where he explicitly admits to forging the read on VA from nothing. Continues to do so for next couple pages. Not sure this is mafia but to keep saying "I re-read twice and BH's filter twice" and not see what everyone else sees is a little strange. Maybe coming from a different viewpoint it really is confusing...  Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 07:08 Fecalfeast wrote:
from my reading I have these reads
rayn - scumlean
palmar - scumlean
LS- town
HtS - scum
puppydog- townlean/null
superbia - scumlean
If I missed any quotes let me know I'm pretty tilted about losing my last post FF, since you're in thread, do answer this: So you're not sure I'm mafia, but then your conclusion indicates you think I am. That really makes no sense. Not sure if you're sheeping others' reads on me but since that's the only thing you cite, that's quite a jump based on what you had said. Care to elaborate?
I'll start by saying that I really did lose that post once so there may have been another quote in there.
That said, yes it was mostly sheeping on top of my curious findings in your filter on top of the miller claim which I did not mention
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On February 15 2015 14:13 Town Puppy wrote:
No, it's not the premise. It's one premise of three (the other two being his pretty sketchy read on Vayne and his relative absence / lack of involvement in the discussion relative to previous games I've seen him play as town).
I need to look more fully into your case, but off the cuff, I am inclined to take his inactivity in of itself as NAI. He announced his engagement to his GF of 4 years in the Void game, so I'm willing to bet that V-Day took a huge chunk of his time away from playing.
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On February 15 2015 14:13 Town Puppy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 13:50 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 13:29 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 13:04 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic: (1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT. (2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2). (3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up. (4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia. (5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine. (6) HTS is town. I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there. What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.) I find it null, and I don't like most of the rest of her play, Eden. 1. I've seen hosts run more than one miller, and this is a 17p game. Debunked. 2. Debunked because of 1. Also, there being the potential of more than one miller makes the play less risky. 3. Debunked because of 1 and 2. 4. Debunked because of 2 (I'm not sure if she takes risks much as scum, having only seen her scum game once.) 5. Not a point if the first 4 aren't valid. 6. See 5. You are not seeing the difference between a 17 player game were HtS claimed miller instantly and there could legitimately be more than one miller in the game, vice a 13 player game where marv was townread for CCing a miller claim which genuinely did run a high chance of seeing him lynched if he was scum fake-claiming. That neither you nor HtS understand this is frankly mind-boggling to me >< and why I think you're full of it. "I've seen it before" doesn't debunk "Hosts typically don't do this." I didn't say hosts never do this. I did say that hosts tend not to do this. Multiple millers in a game is pretty significant cop hate. There's no compelling reason why they can't do this, I just know in my experience that they don't. It just doesn't happen. And where did you see this happen, anyway? I'm not familiar with any games recently that did this, and you didn't raise an example of it when it came up in Horn of Africa (although I guess it didn't matter, given the different context). I also don't think the size of the game makes a big difference, 2+ millers is just awkward and atypical in most games. The part about cc'ing a claim is a pretty good one, maybe I should have been more serious about attempting to cc in the first place. Oops. The boldface part bothers me. If you explained this before, why not just quote it to me so I see it, since I obviously missed it before? If you didn't, why did I have to drag this explanation out of you? In either case, why are you reading so uncharitably into my argument when no one before you had explicitly argued this point with me? I admit though, the point about not cc'ing is a pretty good one, and after I saw the un-cc'd miller play I stopped reading her posts carefully enough to see if I felt her questions were what I expect from her town game. So if she's not auto-town due to miller claim I'm not really sure what she is. Sigh. Can we kill Kelsier now? I'm reading it "uncharitably" because it is the premise you're using to argue that KSC is scum, and because HtS' excuse for claiming miller (marv did it so it must be the ideal play) is inherently false if you were in the game, and you were xP There were multiple millers in Carol, which was a little bigger than this, but not by much. Giving someone a hard townread for a miller claim just does not make sense. Even marv's claim, which was objectively way more townie, you questioned, so yeah, of course it seems like BS to me when you're accepting hers on faith -_- The VA thing with KSC just doesn't read as alignment-indicative to me. I'd be just as happy to vote VA with BH as KSC with you; that's how little impact it makes. No, it's not the premise. It's one premise of three (the other two being his pretty sketchy read on Vayne and his relative absence / lack of involvement in the discussion relative to previous games I've seen him play as town). "inherently false"? Yes, I am being less paranoid about role claims after Horn of Africa, for the obvious reason that marv was clearly town and I spent a shitload of time tilting at windmills that game because I didn't accept pretty clear logic for him being innocent. And uhh... Show nested quote +I'd be just as happy to vote VA with BH as KSC with you; that's how little impact it makes. Huh? If you're saying my case is so bad that I'm as likely to be right as the guy you're scumreading picking a random player, I don't see THAT at all. Are you going to explain how someone describing behavior that's not alignment-indicative as "scummy" (and apparently the most suspicious thing in the game, given the vote) "just doesn't read as alignment-indicative" to you? And do you even think BH is mafia?
Have you read this thread at all, Town Puppy? xP Or my filter, for that matter? My point when I voted him was he was just as good a lynch (30% chance) as his RNGd lynch. I wanted to gauge reactions and didn't take my vote off him until he returned to the thread.
Let me give you a hint: I unvoted BH awhile ago. He's solidly in my null category.
Inherently false: marv CC'd a miller claim as the miller does not translate to all millers should claim in the game right away
It doesn't read as alignment-indicative to me because I don't know which game KSC is referring to where scum got RNGd, joked, then disappeared from the thread. If KSC has been in such a game, I can see that argument coming from town -shrugs-
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Almost 5:30am. I'm going to get some sleep, but will return when I can.
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This miller claim discussion is just meh. The claim means nothing just ignore it.
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On February 15 2015 14:18 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 14:13 Town Puppy wrote:
No, it's not the premise. It's one premise of three (the other two being his pretty sketchy read on Vayne and his relative absence / lack of involvement in the discussion relative to previous games I've seen him play as town). I need to look more fully into your case, but off the cuff, I am inclined to take his inactivity in of itself as NAI. He announced his engagement to his GF of 4 years in the Void game, so I'm willing to bet that V-Day took a huge chunk of his time away from playing.
did not know this, that actually does change my perspective quite a bit
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All the more reason to lynch him
shouldnt let an engaged man play mafia
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United Kingdom10443 Posts
Hello all, Valentines day yesterday and I was unable to really post in the thread.
I'm going togive my thoughts on the significant things in the thread.
The HTS miller claim and subsequent play - I'm not sure of how the mechanics of a miller work out and whether or not the claim was correct however it is believable that marv mentioned something to her, a quote or something would be useful, and it is in the interest of newer players to take the advice of veterans such as marv. Since that point she has been putting input into all parts of the thread and asking a lot of questions, in my opinion some of the questions felt fluffy but it is possible that after claiming a miller role she felt she had to be a town leader and drive discussion onwards, this would also explain why she gave out lots of early reads as she felt her voice needed to be out there. For that reason I think that the miller claim was from a town perspective.
The RNG on VA - I gave my thoughts on this, A lot of people have brought up that VA is lurky d1 , however the game I was in was FFL mafia, ObviousOne got RNG'd, made a joke and then AFK'd. This felt reminiscent of that so he was my early mafia read. He is a lurky player apparently so this isn't a particularly strong read I also like this post he made on BH.
On February 15 2015 09:29 VayneAuthority wrote:
rayn when you read this tell me how similar you find BH to his persona as Old Partner in golden sun. when I read his posts I feel like he is talking to other people and having a laugh. Reminds me of that game with how forced he is pushing this agenda with these long awful posts
This is how I feel about BH at the moment. He had his RNG fun and pushed maths at us. Then again he pushed mechanics with his "lets consolidate wagons." But his solution is just to go back to his RNG lynch. I don't see any game solving or mind blowing posts despite their long length so I think BH could be scum here.
Puppy's scum read on me - I really disliked his early game, he gives a lot of soft town reads. For example
On February 15 2015 03:17 Town Puppy wrote:ugh Also this guy is town because his filter is already longer than it was after one cycle of play in Imperial.
Using imperial d1 as any sort of basis is silly because that was on NYE and activity was very skewed, (like yesterday for me). I think it likely that superbia could be scum
However it is possible that Puppy is not intelligent so maybe he is just a town that loves giving soft town reads and weak mafia cases, it is d1 no mafia case can be that strong but it is an interesting discussion point.
I look at the people who agreed with the case -
Breshke, prphz and liancourt.
I still feel like liancourt is town, I think his wild switch onto FF felt town, he has also been pretty bloodthirsty and not really giving a fuck about his image. Breshke has been defending a lot of people, I think a common mafia tactic is to defend a lot of town but this will come back and bite him later if he is scum and he has no one left to lynch.
I think prphz is the person I want to focus on the most here.
On February 14 2015 23:15 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 22:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Hi purplehaze!
Long time no see. Did you roll town? no i rolled mafia so please help me with the blue hunting. Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 16:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Policy lynch miller claims.
Townies do not fear getting copped.
Also blazinghand probably is mafia. for realsies? Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 22:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like what i basically want to do Palmar, is to figure out blazinghand, robert, and wirh your help prplhz. If we can fiure out those players alignments on D1 the game becomes really OP for the town. why these players?
Sort of weak early questions, no real direction to them.
On February 15 2015 00:26 prplhz wrote:
does anybody know what's going on in this thread
On February 15 2015 00:33 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 00:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:On February 14 2015 18:26 Blazinghand wrote:On February 14 2015 17:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Blazinghand, let's be honest:
Are you forging that read on vayne? The one besides rng? Of course. I don't know the dude's meta at all, but people will probably buy it; people aren't very bright. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11 this really isn't anything
Going through his filter I get the impression of a lot of 'traffic directing' He makes posts along the lines of "this discussion isn't useful" or "you need to get in here and play" Yet despite all of this he has made no impact into the game.
On February 15 2015 00:54 prplhz wrote:
@Alakaslam can anybody on this forum actually read you and who would that person be?
On February 15 2015 00:57 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 00:54 IAmRobik wrote:
Palmar is my top town. If he's not your top town, then you're playing this game wrong could you please outline why i should think palmar is top town
On February 15 2015 03:45 prplhz wrote:
hey puppy!
what do you think about fecalfeast?
more questions that don't have any follow up to them
On February 15 2015 03:53 prplhz wrote:
it's saturday night where is everybody if not at their computers playing mafia
On February 15 2015 09:41 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 09:08 Blazinghand wrote:So, guys. It looks like nobody can agree on any sort of wagon, right? I think it's fair to say that we're in a bit of a disarray. Palmar recently was talking about the importance of sheeping as a skill. You see, with 5 votes on 5 different wagons we're in a bad place. There's no clear town consensus or counterwagon forming, and everyone is pulling every which way trying to make things happen. If like, one scum votes one way then that wagon could jump into the lead or something, and it wouldn't be clear where people stand because none of these wagons are important enough yet (another reason why Majority Lynch is better than Plurality Lynch)... but most importantly, people seem afraid to sheep. Sheeping is important! It's a vital skill. Here, Palmar from the Past will tell you: On March 12 2014 17:57 Palmar wrote:
A little point about this game:
It really, really proves the value of NOT GETTING LYNCHED as town. For some reason staying alive, just like sheeping, is a pretty devalued skill in mafia. Everyone wants to focus on amazing reads and shit, and while those are great, the main job of any townie can simply be to not get lynched. If townies don't get lynched town wins the game by default. On February 03 2015 00:23 Palmar wrote:On February 02 2015 23:12 Damdred wrote:
HTS was pretty towny d1 especially early part when I was talking to her with rsoultin not sure what was going on with that lol. While I'm on the topic of underrated skillsets, HTS has an amazing ability look town when she is. She is just so painfully obviously town that it makes the game so much easier. Like for some reason everyone seems to think the be-all end-all townplayer skill in mafia is to figure out who is mafia, when in reality it's only one of half a dozen or so very important skills that can't exist without each other. The ability to convince, the ability to be townread, the ability to sheep when needed, the ability to control atmosphere and focus discussion etc etc etc. This game was actually a very good example of how unimportant actually figuring out who the mafia is can be. If you polled people in this game, more than half of them would put me in the bottom half for performance as town here. But no one was more right on the mafia than I was this game. I literally tried to kill 3 people day 1 and those were the mafia. However: I was not useful for direction/focus/atmosphere I couldn't convince anyone to follow me Half the players thought I was mafia. I agree! I didn't play this game well at all. And of the two things I did right, only one of them was actually really good, and it wasn't the fact that I went after the entire mafia team. In the end my willingness to sheep Damdred's case and thus make a good judgement call is something I'm far more happy about than being right.So yeah, don't sleep on players even if they are wrong sometimes. The #1 priority of any town player is to not get lynched. So as you can see, we have problems in this thread because our votes are all over the place. People are focussed too much on trying to look good (for example, numerous peoples' extremely wrongheaded attack on my RNG) or like, trying to hunt scum or something, when they should be focused on constructing a solid town discourse. I propose we focus this discourse around my wagon on Vayne. It's the largest wagon by a good amount, and on top of that, despite his protestations Vayne isn't contributing. Oh, he might, and if he's town I'm sure he'll pick things up, but it's not like we lose anything by lynching him, or pushing a lynch on him. Think about all the people who have come out of the woodwork to attack my case, or even worse, to ignore it utterly. What's the agenda here? Clearly scum are afraid. Afraid of the glory of RNG. Now, maybe you have your own cases, or your own ideas, and that's fine. I appreciate that. Maybe that one-vote case on rayn or whatever could be a thing. But right now, we need to focus on the task at hand, which is sheeping me and voting Vayne. It's our best chance to unify this town onto a solid goal, which is lynching according to RNG. Vote Vayne, lynch him for unity and because you understand that sheeping me is an underrated skill. any questions? i have a question are you not aware the the bullshitting phase of this game is long over?
more traffic direction but no substance given.
And finally at the end of all that
On February 15 2015 10:58 prplhz wrote:
I can get aboard a KelsierSC lynch.
##Vote KelsierSC
He hasn't followed up on any questions, just tried to appear town by traffic directing and then throws a random vote on me.
So at this point I have 4 people I think could be scum BH,prplhz, VA maybe Super maybe.
As for people I have as town right now.
Liancourt,HTS,palmar,rayn, rsolutin and Breshke for now.
TLDR -
hts miller was town,
va rng his reaction was poor but he lurks as town so not indicative apparently,
BH has been hiding behind mechanics and still trying to push his va nonsense
eden case on me was weak but he may be stupid.
of the people jumping on the case prplhz seems scummy to me.
Breshke has defended a lot of people
So i'm generally caught up and going to do a bit more digging. Feel free to ask me questions about specific people. I earned a lot of brownie points yesterday so I can be at my computer a lot more.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
when VA flips scum you'll all apologise
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rayn is mafia
Here's a recap on what happened.
1. Palmar does a bunch of townie things (one of those included calling rayn scum for the hts stuff)
2. rayn says "palmar is town"
3. Palmar talks about bluehunting
4. Robik says "palmar is top town because of the bluehunting thing"
5. prplhz points out reading op is not very palmar-like
6. rayn retracts his townread on Palmar
The problem here is that rayn ignored everything that had caused him to call me town in the first place. He overrode all lhis previous notions based on what basically amounts to nothing.
To answer the question about why I remembered it... idk? I just did? I usually have at least one tab open on page 1 for quick access to filters so I do skim the ops quite often through games.
But the important part here is that changing people's mind in mafia is extremely hard. I've gone on rants about how it's always the best idea for mafia to shoot whoever is right because the people who are wrong will keep being wrong. Rayn however seems to have no problem dropping a read that I'd imagine would be pretty central to the way he is approaching the game (he puts value into reading "big name" players) because of basically nothing.
Like when rayn thinks he has something, he doesn't just drop it. There was some game where he was convinced prplhz was mafia (prplhz was town) and it took marv and I fucking forever to convince him to drop it and sheep marv onto someone... Toad I think?
Like if rayn doesn't believe the bluehunting thing makes me town (like robik does) I would expect him to defer to his earlier reads, not just straight up drop his townread on me.
##vote rayn
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you can listen to tina turner's "simply the best" while reading my case and then applying votes as required.
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I feel like that song was written about me.
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United Kingdom10443 Posts
Palmar can you explain the blue hunting thing to me.
Also it depends on what reasons rayn was townreading you for initially
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On February 15 2015 18:59 KelsierSC wrote:
Palmar can you explain the blue hunting thing to me.
Also it depends on what reasons rayn was townreading you for initially
read his filter.
Also, he should be townreading me, that's the default.
The bluehunting thing was basically prplhz claiming mafia and saying he was bluehunting, I sort of took him up on it and said "okay let's bluehunt" then I realized that the blues in this game are actually mafia and I was wondering if prplhz was being intentionally clever with his bluehunt thing or if he (like everyone else at the time) had forgotten and it was just accidentally hilarious.
Mostly pretty irrelevant stuff.
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United Kingdom10443 Posts
Alright so I read through his filter again. He said he has a semi yolo read on you based on your approach this game and that is why he calls you town.
Now I admit i dont have a veteran perspective on this but if he really likes the prplhz quote, which it is clear he does then i font think there is an issue with him retracting his town read. Does he actually call you scum though? Either way i dont think your case on rayn is good. He seems town to me.
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Canada11355 Posts
Im drunk and palmar is smart
[B]##vote rayn[b]
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United Kingdom10443 Posts
On February 15 2015 19:26 Fecalfeast wrote:
Im drunk and palmar is smart
[B]##vote rayn[b]
Can you go into more detail on what you like about palmar's case.
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On February 15 2015 19:12 KelsierSC wrote:
Alright so I read through his filter again. He said he has a semi yolo read on you based on your approach this game and that is why he calls you town.
Now I admit i dont have a veteran perspective on this but if he really likes the prplhz quote, which it is clear he does then i font think there is an issue with him retracting his town read. Does he actually call you scum though? Either way i dont think your case on rayn is good. He seems town to me.
Yes but he later confirmed in his list post that he actually thinks I'm town. There is literally no reason for rayn to doubt I'm town at this point, the fact that I didn't try to bury him regarding the hts/robik stuff should basically give him such a strong townread on me that there is no reason to doubt it, especially the fact that I may or may not read OPs
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United Kingdom10443 Posts
Also palmar what are your thoughts on superbia?
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EPT
