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On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all
She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic:
(1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT.
(2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2).
(3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up.
(4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia.
(5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine.
(6) HTS is town.
I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there.
What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.)
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Since I'm still in thread...
On February 15 2015 00:12 Half the Sky wrote:
I'm back. Rasputin, in either case, I thought that was what you were supposed to do if you rolled miller. If not, then well, what's done is done, and you, Rayn, whoever else can call my play bad for all I care.
The "that" being claim the miller role first thing.
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On February 15 2015 13:04 Town Puppy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic: (1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT. (2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2). (3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up. (4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia. (5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine. (6) HTS is town. I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there. What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.)
I find it null, and I don't like most of the rest of her play, Eden.
1. I've seen hosts run more than one miller, and this is a 17p game. Debunked.
2. Debunked because of 1. Also, there being the potential of more than one miller makes the play less risky.
3. Debunked because of 1 and 2.
4. Debunked because of 2 (I'm not sure if she takes risks much as scum, having only seen her scum game once.)
5. Not a point if the first 4 aren't valid.
6. See 5.
You are not seeing the difference between a 17 player game were HtS claimed miller instantly and there could legitimately be more than one miller in the game, vice a 13 player game where marv was townread for CCing a miller claim which genuinely did run a high chance of seeing him lynched if he was scum fake-claiming.
That neither you nor HtS understand this is frankly mind-boggling to me >< and why I think you're full of it.
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Canada11355 Posts
On February 15 2015 13:29 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 13:04 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic: (1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT. (2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2). (3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up. (4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia. (5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine. (6) HTS is town. I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there. What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.) I find it null, and I don't like most of the rest of her play, Eden. 1. I've seen hosts run more than one miller, and this is a 17p game. Debunked. 2. Debunked because of 1. Also, there being the potential of more than one miller makes the play less risky. 3. Debunked because of 1 and 2. 4. Debunked because of 2 (I'm not sure if she takes risks much as scum, having only seen her scum game once.) 5. Not a point if the first 4 aren't valid. 6. See 5. You are not seeing the difference between a 17 player game were HtS claimed miller instantly and there could legitimately be more than one miller in the game, vice a 13 player game where marv was townread for CCing a miller claim which genuinely did run a high chance of seeing him lynched if he was scum fake-claiming. That neither you nor HtS understand this is frankly mind-boggling to me >< and why I think you're full of it.
I was just about to make a post regarding the people accepting there is only one miller. In fact I happen to know at least one host (foolishness) that enjoys adding millers to any setup from having talks about balancing metal mini.
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Looking into some of Rayn's quotes after he questioned me on my reads, there are a few quotes of his that have me scumreading Rayn.
I have never played with him so I am disregarding meta.
On February 15 2015 00:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:idk. doesn't make it any better considering the fact LS is town.
How does he know for a "fact that LS is town"? If he's town, he wouldn't know this for a fact.
Next quote: Possible buddying of Palmar? I don't understand as a veteran why he cannot figure out some of these players (other veterans) himself. I have heard in QTs he's a good player (correct me if I'm wrong on this)
Now I know BH has been around, I don't know who he means by Robert, and it would appear prplhz has also been around TL a bit. It seems like it could be a way to use an incorrect Palmar read for a potential mafia agenda.
On February 14 2015 22:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like what i basically want to do Palmar, is to figure out blazinghand, robert, and wirh your help prplhz. If we can fiure out those players alignments on D1 the game becomes really OP for the town.
I also read further on the post that Rasputin mentioned on the flip-flop. I don't understand why he'd ask Palmar for help on reading someone and then through a single post, he not only is confident enough to agree with someone he previously might have needed help reading but then retracts someone he was willing to work with.
Additionally I got a very bad vibe from this as well:
On February 15 2015 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Half the Sky i am really puzzled about the fact we have an argument going on and instead of arguing with me you decide to comment on other ppl's posts. And this is not even the first time you have done so.
Like he's trying to push me when I'd already answered his questions. Looking at the timestamps there were 12 minutes in between I answered his last question and when he said that, so it's not like he missed my questions. It seems like he's trying to reach to call me scum based on this.
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Wait so this is semi open setup that changes evrrything
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To be fair I had already brought up the possibility of multiple millers as well early on.
On February 14 2015 15:25 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 15:11 Half the Sky wrote:
Also Breshke, regarding the CC, I'm no balance queen (yet) but how do you know there cannot be a second miller?
17-player game might be possible. 13-man based on Horn, unlikely. There could be I just think it would be ballsy for a mafia to claim miller this early because if like 2+ other millers out that sticks you in the limelight because it isnt really standard.
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Canada11355 Posts
On February 15 2015 13:40 Half the Sky wrote:To be fair I had already brought up the possibility of multiple millers as well early on. Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 15:25 Breshke wrote:On February 14 2015 15:11 Half the Sky wrote:
Also Breshke, regarding the CC, I'm no balance queen (yet) but how do you know there cannot be a second miller?
17-player game might be possible. 13-man based on Horn, unlikely. There could be I just think it would be ballsy for a mafia to claim miller this early because if like 2+ other millers out that sticks you in the limelight because it isnt really standard.
So you did. I like your rayn post, see also that he spent almost an entire page (game page not filter page) getting upset over the semantics of rsoultin's post that made fun of BH's RNG
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On February 15 2015 07:08 Fecalfeast wrote:HtS has trouble reading BH's post where he explicitly admits to forging the read on VA from nothing. Continues to do so for next couple pages. Not sure this is mafia but to keep saying "I re-read twice and BH's filter twice" and not see what everyone else sees is a little strange. Maybe coming from a different viewpoint it really is confusing... 
On February 15 2015 07:08 Fecalfeast wrote:
from my reading I have these reads
rayn - scumlean
palmar - scumlean
LS- town
HtS - scum
puppydog- townlean/null
superbia - scumlean
If I missed any quotes let me know I'm pretty tilted about losing my last post
FF, since you're in thread, do answer this:
So you're not sure I'm mafia, but then your conclusion indicates you think I am. That really makes no sense. Not sure if you're sheeping others' reads on me but since that's the only thing you cite, that's quite a jump based on what you had said.
Care to elaborate?
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On February 15 2015 13:36 Half the Sky wrote:Looking into some of Rayn's quotes after he questioned me on my reads, there are a few quotes of his that have me scumreading Rayn. I have never played with him so I am disregarding meta. Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 00:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:On February 15 2015 00:35 Palmar wrote:
Why is robik mad at LS for being LS? idk. doesn't make it any better considering the fact LS is town. How does he know for a "fact that LS is town"? If he's town, he wouldn't know this for a fact. Next quote: Possible buddying of Palmar? I don't understand as a veteran why he cannot figure out some of these players (other veterans) himself. I have heard in QTs he's a good player (correct me if I'm wrong on this) Now I know BH has been around, I don't know who he means by Robert, and it would appear prplhz has also been around TL a bit. It seems like it could be a way to use an incorrect Palmar read for a potential mafia agenda. Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 22:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like what i basically want to do Palmar, is to figure out blazinghand, robert, and wirh your help prplhz. If we can fiure out those players alignments on D1 the game becomes really OP for the town. I also read further on the post that Rasputin mentioned on the flip-flop. I don't understand why he'd ask Palmar for help on reading someone and then through a single post, he not only is confident enough to agree with someone he previously might have needed help reading but then retracts someone he was willing to work with. Additionally I got a very bad vibe from this as well: Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Half the Sky i am really puzzled about the fact we have an argument going on and instead of arguing with me you decide to comment on other ppl's posts. And this is not even the first time you have done so. Like he's trying to push me when I'd already answered his questions. Looking at the timestamps there were 12 minutes in between I answered his last question and when he said that, so it's not like he missed my questions. It seems like he's trying to reach to call me scum based on this.
Huh, the quote on getting palmar to help with the other 3 players...that is a very good point, HtS. As for the semantics argument...I pretty much null-read that. People don't understand my sarcasm sometimes xP case and point: ritoky
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On February 15 2015 13:29 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 13:04 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic: (1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT. (2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2). (3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up. (4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia. (5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine. (6) HTS is town. I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there. What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.) I find it null, and I don't like most of the rest of her play, Eden. 1. I've seen hosts run more than one miller, and this is a 17p game. Debunked. 2. Debunked because of 1. Also, there being the potential of more than one miller makes the play less risky. 3. Debunked because of 1 and 2. 4. Debunked because of 2 (I'm not sure if she takes risks much as scum, having only seen her scum game once.) 5. Not a point if the first 4 aren't valid. 6. See 5. You are not seeing the difference between a 17 player game were HtS claimed miller instantly and there could legitimately be more than one miller in the game, vice a 13 player game where marv was townread for CCing a miller claim which genuinely did run a high chance of seeing him lynched if he was scum fake-claiming. That neither you nor HtS understand this is frankly mind-boggling to me >< and why I think you're full of it.
"I've seen it before" doesn't debunk "Hosts typically don't do this." I didn't say hosts never do this. I did say that hosts tend not to do this. Multiple millers in a game is pretty significant cop hate. There's no compelling reason why they can't do this, I just know in my experience that they don't. It just doesn't happen. And where did you see this happen, anyway? I'm not familiar with any games recently that did this, and you didn't raise an example of it when it came up in Horn of Africa (although I guess it didn't matter, given the different context). I also don't think the size of the game makes a big difference, 2+ millers is just awkward and atypical in most games.
The part about cc'ing a claim is a pretty good one, maybe I should have been more serious about attempting to cc in the first place. Oops.
The boldface part bothers me. If you explained this before, why not just quote it to me so I see it, since I obviously missed it before? If you didn't, why did I have to drag this explanation out of you? In either case, why are you reading so uncharitably into my argument when no one before you had explicitly argued this point with me?
I admit though, the point about not cc'ing is a pretty good one, and after I saw the un-cc'd miller play I stopped reading her posts carefully enough to see if I felt her questions were what I expect from her town game. So if she's not auto-town due to miller claim I'm not really sure what she is. Sigh.
Can we kill Kelsier now?
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On February 15 2015 13:47 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 13:36 Half the Sky wrote:Looking into some of Rayn's quotes after he questioned me on my reads, there are a few quotes of his that have me scumreading Rayn. I have never played with him so I am disregarding meta. On February 15 2015 00:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:On February 15 2015 00:35 Palmar wrote:
Why is robik mad at LS for being LS? idk. doesn't make it any better considering the fact LS is town. How does he know for a "fact that LS is town"? If he's town, he wouldn't know this for a fact. Next quote: Possible buddying of Palmar? I don't understand as a veteran why he cannot figure out some of these players (other veterans) himself. I have heard in QTs he's a good player (correct me if I'm wrong on this) Now I know BH has been around, I don't know who he means by Robert, and it would appear prplhz has also been around TL a bit. It seems like it could be a way to use an incorrect Palmar read for a potential mafia agenda. On February 14 2015 22:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like what i basically want to do Palmar, is to figure out blazinghand, robert, and wirh your help prplhz. If we can fiure out those players alignments on D1 the game becomes really OP for the town. I also read further on the post that Rasputin mentioned on the flip-flop. I don't understand why he'd ask Palmar for help on reading someone and then through a single post, he not only is confident enough to agree with someone he previously might have needed help reading but then retracts someone he was willing to work with. Additionally I got a very bad vibe from this as well: On February 15 2015 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Half the Sky i am really puzzled about the fact we have an argument going on and instead of arguing with me you decide to comment on other ppl's posts. And this is not even the first time you have done so. Like he's trying to push me when I'd already answered his questions. Looking at the timestamps there were 12 minutes in between I answered his last question and when he said that, so it's not like he missed my questions. It seems like he's trying to reach to call me scum based on this. Huh, the quote on getting palmar to help with the other 3 players...that is a very good point, HtS. As for the semantics argument...I pretty much null-read that. People don't understand my sarcasm sometimes xP case and point: ritoky
EBWOP:
Also don't see the initial townread in Rayn's filter to somehow justify his calling LS town so definitively when he's responding about Robik.
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On February 15 2015 13:56 rsoultin wrote:
Also don't see the initial townread in Rayn's filter to somehow justify his calling LS town so definitively when he's responding about Robik.
From what I recall from digging his filter, he quoted LS on BH/Palmar IIRC and said "townie pass" but the former statement was still too definitive in my eyes.
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On February 15 2015 13:50 Town Puppy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 13:29 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 13:04 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic: (1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT. (2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2). (3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up. (4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia. (5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine. (6) HTS is town. I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there. What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.) I find it null, and I don't like most of the rest of her play, Eden. 1. I've seen hosts run more than one miller, and this is a 17p game. Debunked. 2. Debunked because of 1. Also, there being the potential of more than one miller makes the play less risky. 3. Debunked because of 1 and 2. 4. Debunked because of 2 (I'm not sure if she takes risks much as scum, having only seen her scum game once.) 5. Not a point if the first 4 aren't valid. 6. See 5. You are not seeing the difference between a 17 player game were HtS claimed miller instantly and there could legitimately be more than one miller in the game, vice a 13 player game where marv was townread for CCing a miller claim which genuinely did run a high chance of seeing him lynched if he was scum fake-claiming. That neither you nor HtS understand this is frankly mind-boggling to me >< and why I think you're full of it. "I've seen it before" doesn't debunk "Hosts typically don't do this." I didn't say hosts never do this. I did say that hosts tend not to do this. Multiple millers in a game is pretty significant cop hate. There's no compelling reason why they can't do this, I just know in my experience that they don't. It just doesn't happen. And where did you see this happen, anyway? I'm not familiar with any games recently that did this, and you didn't raise an example of it when it came up in Horn of Africa (although I guess it didn't matter, given the different context). I also don't think the size of the game makes a big difference, 2+ millers is just awkward and atypical in most games. The part about cc'ing a claim is a pretty good one, maybe I should have been more serious about attempting to cc in the first place. Oops. The boldface part bothers me. If you explained this before, why not just quote it to me so I see it, since I obviously missed it before? If you didn't, why did I have to drag this explanation out of you? In either case, why are you reading so uncharitably into my argument when no one before you had explicitly argued this point with me? I admit though, the point about not cc'ing is a pretty good one, and after I saw the un-cc'd miller play I stopped reading her posts carefully enough to see if I felt her questions were what I expect from her town game. So if she's not auto-town due to miller claim I'm not really sure what she is. Sigh. Can we kill Kelsier now?
I'm reading it "uncharitably" because it is the premise you're using to argue that KSC is scum, and because HtS' excuse for claiming miller (marv did it so it must be the ideal play) is inherently false if you were in the game, and you were xP There were multiple millers in Carol, which was a little bigger than this, but not by much.
Giving someone a hard townread for a miller claim just does not make sense. Even marv's claim, which was objectively way more townie, you questioned, so yeah, of course it seems like BS to me when you're accepting hers on faith -_-
The VA thing with KSC just doesn't read as alignment-indicative to me. I'd be just as happy to vote VA with BH as KSC with you; that's how little impact it makes.
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On February 15 2015 13:56 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 13:47 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 13:36 Half the Sky wrote:Looking into some of Rayn's quotes after he questioned me on my reads, there are a few quotes of his that have me scumreading Rayn. I have never played with him so I am disregarding meta. On February 15 2015 00:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:On February 15 2015 00:35 Palmar wrote:
Why is robik mad at LS for being LS? idk. doesn't make it any better considering the fact LS is town. How does he know for a "fact that LS is town"? If he's town, he wouldn't know this for a fact. Next quote: Possible buddying of Palmar? I don't understand as a veteran why he cannot figure out some of these players (other veterans) himself. I have heard in QTs he's a good player (correct me if I'm wrong on this) Now I know BH has been around, I don't know who he means by Robert, and it would appear prplhz has also been around TL a bit. It seems like it could be a way to use an incorrect Palmar read for a potential mafia agenda. On February 14 2015 22:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like what i basically want to do Palmar, is to figure out blazinghand, robert, and wirh your help prplhz. If we can fiure out those players alignments on D1 the game becomes really OP for the town. I also read further on the post that Rasputin mentioned on the flip-flop. I don't understand why he'd ask Palmar for help on reading someone and then through a single post, he not only is confident enough to agree with someone he previously might have needed help reading but then retracts someone he was willing to work with. Additionally I got a very bad vibe from this as well: On February 15 2015 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Half the Sky i am really puzzled about the fact we have an argument going on and instead of arguing with me you decide to comment on other ppl's posts. And this is not even the first time you have done so. Like he's trying to push me when I'd already answered his questions. Looking at the timestamps there were 12 minutes in between I answered his last question and when he said that, so it's not like he missed my questions. It seems like he's trying to reach to call me scum based on this. Huh, the quote on getting palmar to help with the other 3 players...that is a very good point, HtS. As for the semantics argument...I pretty much null-read that. People don't understand my sarcasm sometimes xP case and point: ritoky EBWOP: Also don't see the initial townread in Rayn's filter to somehow justify his calling LS town so definitively when he's responding about Robik.
Because me and him had the same thought about Superbia he was willing to just call me town for that I guess lol.
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On February 15 2015 14:01 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 13:56 rsoultin wrote:
Also don't see the initial townread in Rayn's filter to somehow justify his calling LS town so definitively when he's responding about Robik.
From what I recall from digging his filter, he quoted LS on BH/Palmar IIRC and said "townie pass" but the former statement was still too definitive in my eyes.
Oh, I missed that.
On February 14 2015 23:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 23:19 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up and saw the RNG lynch plan by BH involving VA and saw Palmar been talking with Palmar about HTS's Miller claim. I also not liking Superbia but it might be paranoia because the last I played with him it was my very first game on TL and he was Mafia and I called him out for his opening being really scummy and I feeling the same way this game. Hmmmmm. I have the exact same feeling. You can have a townie pass sir.
In that case, I don't find the comment on Robik being mad at LS that strange, honestly ^^
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On February 15 2015 13:04 Town Puppy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic: (1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT. (2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2). (3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up. (4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia. (5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine. (6) HTS is town. I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there. What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.)
Don't rely on typicalism, please.
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On February 15 2015 13:36 Half the Sky wrote:Looking into some of Rayn's quotes after he questioned me on my reads, there are a few quotes of his that have me scumreading Rayn. I have never played with him so I am disregarding meta. Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 00:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:On February 15 2015 00:35 Palmar wrote:
Why is robik mad at LS for being LS? idk. doesn't make it any better considering the fact LS is town. How does he know for a "fact that LS is town"? If he's town, he wouldn't know this for a fact. Next quote: Possible buddying of Palmar? I don't understand as a veteran why he cannot figure out some of these players (other veterans) himself. I have heard in QTs he's a good player (correct me if I'm wrong on this) Now I know BH has been around, I don't know who he means by Robert, and it would appear prplhz has also been around TL a bit. It seems like it could be a way to use an incorrect Palmar read for a potential mafia agenda. Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 22:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like what i basically want to do Palmar, is to figure out blazinghand, robert, and wirh your help prplhz. If we can fiure out those players alignments on D1 the game becomes really OP for the town. I also read further on the post that Rasputin mentioned on the flip-flop. I don't understand why he'd ask Palmar for help on reading someone and then through a single post, he not only is confident enough to agree with someone he previously might have needed help reading but then retracts someone he was willing to work with. Additionally I got a very bad vibe from this as well: Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Half the Sky i am really puzzled about the fact we have an argument going on and instead of arguing with me you decide to comment on other ppl's posts. And this is not even the first time you have done so. Like he's trying to push me when I'd already answered his questions. Looking at the timestamps there were 12 minutes in between I answered his last question and when he said that, so it's not like he missed my questions. It seems like he's trying to reach to call me scum based on this.
Rayn always knows everything he doesn't know; best to just grow accustomed to it.
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Going to bed now. When I wake up I will check everything!
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On February 15 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 13:50 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 13:29 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 13:04 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic: (1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT. (2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2). (3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up. (4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia. (5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine. (6) HTS is town. I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there. What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.) I find it null, and I don't like most of the rest of her play, Eden. 1. I've seen hosts run more than one miller, and this is a 17p game. Debunked. 2. Debunked because of 1. Also, there being the potential of more than one miller makes the play less risky. 3. Debunked because of 1 and 2. 4. Debunked because of 2 (I'm not sure if she takes risks much as scum, having only seen her scum game once.) 5. Not a point if the first 4 aren't valid. 6. See 5. You are not seeing the difference between a 17 player game were HtS claimed miller instantly and there could legitimately be more than one miller in the game, vice a 13 player game where marv was townread for CCing a miller claim which genuinely did run a high chance of seeing him lynched if he was scum fake-claiming. That neither you nor HtS understand this is frankly mind-boggling to me >< and why I think you're full of it. "I've seen it before" doesn't debunk "Hosts typically don't do this." I didn't say hosts never do this. I did say that hosts tend not to do this. Multiple millers in a game is pretty significant cop hate. There's no compelling reason why they can't do this, I just know in my experience that they don't. It just doesn't happen. And where did you see this happen, anyway? I'm not familiar with any games recently that did this, and you didn't raise an example of it when it came up in Horn of Africa (although I guess it didn't matter, given the different context). I also don't think the size of the game makes a big difference, 2+ millers is just awkward and atypical in most games. The part about cc'ing a claim is a pretty good one, maybe I should have been more serious about attempting to cc in the first place. Oops. The boldface part bothers me. If you explained this before, why not just quote it to me so I see it, since I obviously missed it before? If you didn't, why did I have to drag this explanation out of you? In either case, why are you reading so uncharitably into my argument when no one before you had explicitly argued this point with me? I admit though, the point about not cc'ing is a pretty good one, and after I saw the un-cc'd miller play I stopped reading her posts carefully enough to see if I felt her questions were what I expect from her town game. So if she's not auto-town due to miller claim I'm not really sure what she is. Sigh. Can we kill Kelsier now? I'm reading it "uncharitably" because it is the premise you're using to argue that KSC is scum, and because HtS' excuse for claiming miller (marv did it so it must be the ideal play) is inherently false if you were in the game, and you were xP There were multiple millers in Carol, which was a little bigger than this, but not by much. Giving someone a hard townread for a miller claim just does not make sense. Even marv's claim, which was objectively way more townie, you questioned, so yeah, of course it seems like BS to me when you're accepting hers on faith -_- The VA thing with KSC just doesn't read as alignment-indicative to me. I'd be just as happy to vote VA with BH as KSC with you; that's how little impact it makes.
No, it's not the premise. It's one premise of three (the other two being his pretty sketchy read on Vayne and his relative absence / lack of involvement in the discussion relative to previous games I've seen him play as town).
"inherently false"?
Yes, I am being less paranoid about role claims after Horn of Africa, for the obvious reason that marv was clearly town and I spent a shitload of time tilting at windmills that game because I didn't accept pretty clear logic for him being innocent.
And uhh...
I'd be just as happy to vote VA with BH as KSC with you; that's how little impact it makes.
(1) Blazinghand - rsoultin
Huh? If you're saying my case is so bad that I'm as likely to be right as the guy you're scumreading picking a random player, I don't see THAT at all. Are you going to explain how someone describing behavior that's not alignment-indicative as "scummy" (and apparently the most suspicious thing in the game, given the vote) "just doesn't read as alignment-indicative" to you?
And do you even think BH is mafia?
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EPT
