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On August 26 2014 00:16 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2014 23:29 yamato77 wrote:On August 25 2014 23:24 GlowingBear wrote:
I gave analysis on night 1 kills and my conclusion was that Kelsen is the SK, but it is useless to discuss who is the SK now. Easier to find mafia with the godfather flipped.
We are wasting our times trying to decide who is SK before deciding who is mafia au contraire, killing the SK now is an amazingly good play. It gives town double the effective time to solve the game. Killing is good but identifying the SK is nearly impossible. He is just a mafia without partners. He will probably try to kill mafia so he won't get shot. Mafia will try to kill townies that are right on their reads or, if people are too dumb, they will try to kill SK so they won't take the risk of getting killed. Let them both chase themselves. Just scum hunt for alignment indicative posts. The fact is, scum hunting with the help of the flip is better than being incapable of doing associations with the flip (SK case)
This analysis is off. SK absolutely would not kill mafia at this point in the game since they're outnumbered. Mafia AND SK both have to deal with you and turtle, so why the hell would SK aim for scum? Also I can certainly tell you mafia do NOT necessarily kill townies who are right on their reads. Look what my scumteam did last game where we N1 killed kush who was COMPLETELY off with ALL of his reads and it worked in our favour.
I'm honestly not completely sold on who we should kill today and why. Removing an extra KP is fairly tempting but I can't say I feel as good about hapa as SK as I do about VA scum, and now maybe Onegu as well.
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On August 26 2014 00:43 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2014 00:40 WaveofShadow wrote:On August 26 2014 00:35 VayneAuthority wrote:
onegu is a safe lynch because he hasn't even come back after the lynch, probably just gave up. This game is incredibly easy at this point but people want to make it difficult for whatever reason. I don't mind dying though I at least semi confirmed damdred. Actually it's particularly interesting that Onegu suspected Rayn last before he fucked off---I'm pretty sure nobody expected him to die, least of all scum so as scum it's a 'safe' target to leave suspicion on. Now that Rayn flipped Onegu actually looks worse than I thought. Also VA the fact that you think that was a good use of your role is pretty hilarious well you have to look at it from my perspective I looked pretty scummy but no way in hell did i think people would just start piling on me immediately with no thought, so I thought i would get my 2nd night action off easily. But this put me in a weird situation. if you just look at it from a timelined point of view then it is fine. if you look at it from specifically WTF hes getting lynched why he use that shitty ability? then obviously it looks stupid
The FUCK are you talking about?
How does waiting do get your 2nd night action off have anything to do with anything at all?
It's pretty fucking obvious that your first night action should be some sort of check anyway as it's simply THE BEST OPTION. It has no bearing on 'timeline' or anything. ESPECIALLY since we lynched GF.
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11589 Posts
VA isn't the best town player of all time, Wave. His claim makes sense if you realize that he's playing the game as a solo player basically as a town aligned person. At least his action is consistent with his reads from the previous day.
Onegu is a much better lynch than him IMO. He is likely mafia given his inactivity and his poor reads. He also doesn't seem to be making a return, so at worst we lynch the modkill and stall for time, something that is relatively precious in a 2KP/night world.
OR we could make DA BIG PLAYS and lynch Hapa. Like I said, this requires a pair, but it promises to be amazing.
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On August 26 2014 01:00 yamato77 wrote:
VA isn't the best town player of all time, Wave. His claim makes sense if you realize that he's playing the game as a solo player basically as a town aligned person. At least his action is consistent with his reads from the previous day.
Onegu is a much better lynch than him IMO. He is likely mafia given his inactivity and his poor reads. He also doesn't seem to be making a return, so at worst we lynch the modkill and stall for time, something that is relatively precious in a 2KP/night world.
OR we could make DA BIG PLAYS and lynch Hapa. Like I said, this requires a pair, but it promises to be amazing.
I can't tell if I like or don't like that I'm not angry at you anymore.
Gonna go with like.
BEEG PLAYZ so tempting.
We still have a lot of day left to go so for now my vote sits. Also I'd like to see what hapa himself has to say about today's lynch since:
On August 25 2014 09:30 Hapahauli wrote:So here's the pool of players that are up for lynch tomorrow: Xatalos Wave Damdred Vayne Onegu Kelsier Everyone else is either confirmed town (GB/Turtle), likely town from the lynch (Yamato, JAT) or mentally unstable and probably town (Rayn). So here's where I stand on these players. I think Xatalos is likely town. I've mentioned a lot on Xatalos already, but overall, the lynch yesterday seemed like it was between two townies until Robik got last minute hammered. If you look where Robik's vote was parked, you can see he wasn't very concerned about "saving one of his scumbuddies". Rather, he was blending in. The vote count in general also really points to it being a town-v-town lynch before the last-minute stuff: Show nested quote +On August 24 2014 09:58 Sylencia wrote:
Counting of votes:
raynpelikoneet (1): IAmRobik, Hapahauli, Xatalos, GlowingBear, Onegu
GlowingBear (0): raynpelikoneet
turtlevine (0): GlowingBear
yamato77 (3): Xatalos, Hapahauli, WaveOfShadow, Hapahauli, Xatalos, justanothertownie
Damdred (1): Xatalos, raynpelikoneet, VayneAuthority
Xatalos (3): turtlevine, raynpelikoneet, KelsierSC, turtlevine, Damdred, yamato77
Hapahauli (1): raynpelikoneet, GlowingBear, turtlevine
WaveOfShadow (0): raynpelikoneet, yamato77
Onegu (1): IAmRobik
IAmRobik (3): yamato77, GlowingBear, Hapahauli
Not voting (0):
Deadline is Sunday, Aug 24 1:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ).
yamato77 is set to be lynched. Notify me of any mistakes. A lot of fragmented votes, and it should be pretty clear that one wagon isn't being heavily pushed (which should be the case in a scum v. town lynch). Therefore, it's likely Xatalos is town with Yamato. Even if you don't like meta stuff, I think this is pretty solid evidence. As for Kelsier, I read a lot of what he does as confirmation bias. In his first game on the site, he seems very confident and cocky, which I think is more likely to come from a town player. I don't agree with the way he's approaching the game, but he has had a consistent mentality throughout the game. Onegu is null. He just hasn't posted nearly enough for me to make a read on him. Good cop check here. I think our mafia is between Wave, Damdred, and Vayne, in order of confidence.
His top two most confident scumreads at the time are likely not getting lynched. The inclusion of VA in the original case here seemed weak, not to mention the entirety of case on Damdred to begin with was super weak. He seemed real happy to park on VA.
I want to hear explanations on all of it.
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On August 26 2014 00:30 VayneAuthority wrote:
I dont know if anyone has brought this up but rayn was a very strange night kill, and he said he was going to cop check hapa yesterday. So that is another piece to the puzzle.
Realistically speaking, even assuming hapa is scum, I still don't think hapa killed rayn. It's utterly predictable that following a rayn death, hapa's chance of getting lynched goes up. If Hapa is mafia, then SK killed rayn, and vice versa.
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Your comment is weird. Scum, whether hapa or not obviously didn't kill Rayn. But I don't think anyone thinks hapa is mafia anymore.
Do you have reason to, given the way the end of day went yesterday?
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On August 26 2014 01:47 WaveofShadow wrote:
Your comment is weird. Scum, whether hapa or not obviously didn't kill Rayn. But I don't think anyone thinks hapa is mafia anymore.
Do you have reason to, given the way the end of day went yesterday?
what do you mean, scum didn't kill rayn? how did he die then, if not via scum? You think a vigi shot him?
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United Kingdom10443 Posts
On August 26 2014 01:51 turtlevine wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2014 01:47 WaveofShadow wrote:
Your comment is weird. Scum, whether hapa or not obviously didn't kill Rayn. But I don't think anyone thinks hapa is mafia anymore.
Do you have reason to, given the way the end of day went yesterday? what do you mean, scum didn't kill rayn? how did he die then, if not via scum? You think a vigi shot him?
SK, obviously
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I'm not really into lynching Hapa. He participated in getting the Mafia GF lynched, he scumhunts constantly and he's a likely NK target N2 regardless of his alignment. We should probably lynch VA today and yeah, perhaps Onegu could also be considered. I still think Damdred's vote was awful but he's at least shown some level of thought about figuring out the game so I would put him a bit above VA or Onegu in chances of being town.
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On August 26 2014 01:51 turtlevine wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2014 01:47 WaveofShadow wrote:
Your comment is weird. Scum, whether hapa or not obviously didn't kill Rayn. But I don't think anyone thinks hapa is mafia anymore.
Do you have reason to, given the way the end of day went yesterday? what do you mean, scum didn't kill rayn? how did he die then, if not via scum? You think a vigi shot him?
Dude.
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On August 26 2014 01:54 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2014 01:51 turtlevine wrote:On August 26 2014 01:47 WaveofShadow wrote:
Your comment is weird. Scum, whether hapa or not obviously didn't kill Rayn. But I don't think anyone thinks hapa is mafia anymore.
Do you have reason to, given the way the end of day went yesterday? what do you mean, scum didn't kill rayn? how did he die then, if not via scum? You think a vigi shot him? Dude.
I'm sorry I don't understand.
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On August 26 2014 01:51 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2014 01:51 turtlevine wrote:On August 26 2014 01:47 WaveofShadow wrote:
Your comment is weird. Scum, whether hapa or not obviously didn't kill Rayn. But I don't think anyone thinks hapa is mafia anymore.
Do you have reason to, given the way the end of day went yesterday? what do you mean, scum didn't kill rayn? how did he die then, if not via scum? You think a vigi shot him? SK, obviously
"Sorry, there's no salt on this bagel, just NaCl"
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Do you plan on letting GB play the entire game for you or something?
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On August 26 2014 01:57 WaveofShadow wrote:
Do you plan on letting GB play the entire game for you or something?
Letting GB play the game for me has worked amazingly well so far, I see no reason to stop. 2 scum are dead and it's D2. As my uncle used to say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Then again, he was an alcoholic and beat his kids, so who knows if that guy was trustworthy.
So are you claiming Vigi or do you not have some reason to believe scum isn't behind the rayn kill
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I don't know if VA is scum, I don't like the timing of the claim or the skill he used but I am not positive that its a fake claim.
And everyone keeps pointing to my vote being bad (everyone being a generalization), I had thought process before and after the vote that needs to be taken into consideration. I think its a non reason to push me for lynch.
I would be ok with a hapa or a Oneg lynch today I think depending on how both respond to the thread and how Vayne continues to interact in the thread will determine where my vote goes I think.
Also Xata do you really think that hapas cases are true scum hunting? point me to a strong case I mean one that is really strong.
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On August 26 2014 01:59 turtlevine wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2014 01:57 WaveofShadow wrote:
Do you plan on letting GB play the entire game for you or something? Letting GB play the game for me has worked amazingly well so far, I see no reason to stop. 2 scum are dead and it's D2. As my uncle used to say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Then again, he was an alcoholic and beat his kids, so who knows if that guy was trustworthy. So are you claiming Vigi or do you not have some reason to believe scum isn't behind the rayn kill
What the fuck?
This is the face I am making right now in all honesty.
![[image loading]](http://fairerplatform.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/jackie-chan-what-the-fuck.jpg)
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On August 26 2014 02:00 Damdred wrote:
I don't know if VA is scum, I don't like the timing of the claim or the skill he used but I am not positive that its a fake claim.
Hypothetically speaking, besides the timing of the claim being wrong, or the claim itself and the actions claimed being bad, what other info could possibly convince you that the claim is fake?
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GB: I think KSC is more likely SK than scum, since it feels like he's really going solo and pushing his own reads. He even bases his reads so strongly on how his reads fit with others' reads that it feels unlikely scum would pursue such a weird strategy. There's really no malicious agenda, just his own way of doing things. I'd still say he's more likely town than SK though because his thread presence is so strong. The only time I've played with a SK was when rayn was SK in one of the Titanic games, and his thread presence was really weak (he was mostly going with the flow instead of pushing anything of his own).
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On August 26 2014 01:59 turtlevine wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2014 01:57 WaveofShadow wrote:
Do you plan on letting GB play the entire game for you or something? Letting GB play the game for me has worked amazingly well so far, I see no reason to stop. 2 scum are dead and it's D2. As my uncle used to say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Then again, he was an alcoholic and beat his kids, so who knows if that guy was trustworthy. So are you claiming Vigi or do you not have some reason to believe scum isn't behind the rayn kill
Do you even read the thread?
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EPT
