EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 6
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Sigh. Why couldn't I get shot instead! It takes forever for me to read through filters and come out with reads. Very well though. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
One of the things that I wanted to look at is Yellow getting shot. Case about Yellow getting shot. + Show Spoiler + Eden's been pushing for Yellow the whole game, save for a tiny bit where he thought Yellow might have been town. Yellow got shot during the night, as I'm sure Bunny made it clear that she thought Yellow was town. I also felt that Yellow was town, so there was little chance Yellow would be lynched. Here are the scenarios for me. 1.) Eden shot Yellow, as Yellow was sure to vote for him had he survived. Bunny would have jumped on that vote just as well, as she's been suspecting Eden for much of the game too. 2.) Bunny shot Yellow, as nobody would have voted for Yellow because he was read as town for much of the game. The only person that didn't read him as town was Eden, who would have likely voted for him in this scenario had Yellow survived. Yellow would have then voted on Eden, and Bunny would have jumped on the Eden vote. OR 3.) Bunny shot Yellow to frame Eden in the first scenario, had any of us thought of it and recognized it. I wish there were more of a use in analyzing Yellow's death, but it really doesn't help, as I think both scenarios 1 and 3 are equally likely. You know what, I had a TON of stuff written down that Drav and dfs had on Bunny and Eden, but nothing about their interactions with Eden jumped out at me. The biggest thing that I could find was that Bunny was cleared under some questionable circumstances by dfs and Drav. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2014 03:23 dravernor wrote: I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me. My 'most likely' scum list right now, as I said above : Epishade and/or sqrt. On the fence : bunnies, tamb, Yell0w, maaaaybe Eden Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini Drav might just not really know what the different roles in this game actually do, but her inexperience in this game shows by clearing Bunny as town based on faulty understanding of the game. I find it a little suspicious for Drav to clear Bunny for a reason that she doesn't fully understand herself (town jailkeeper roleblocking Bunny to keep her safe that is). In the same post, though, she places Bunny as fence. Yet, in her next post about Bunny, she posts with Bunny in her town list, with no explanation of the move. Maybe she didn't feel it needed an explanation as everyone was just reading Bunny as town so it felt alright to place her in the town list? Idk, but she says this after she posts her list: On May 07 2014 02:42 dravernor wrote: I actually agree. I think Meat is town. I think dfs is town. I think bunnies might be town. I think tamb is town. I think Epishade is scum. I think Eden might be scum. I think ahs might be scum. I think Yell0w might be scum. If there are 4 mafia and 9 of us, then one more mislynch means GG?  I'm going to have to post my expansion on these points after dinner (family birthday so helping cook etc), and had a super long day. I'm scared of losing bunnies because she has shown she can be useful. Same with Eden, but I am hesitant of him because I also think he might be dangerous. Eh. Be back just now. Sounds a little off to me to be afraid of losing Bunny and Eden, but then placing more emphasis on losing Bunny over Eden being worse. I wouldn't have paid it any attention if it weren't down to us three now, but every detail matters now. dfs' posts are a lot more sparse and difficult to get information from. There's not much to say about most of what he says, but I did find one thing that stood out to me. On May 07 2014 02:21 dfs wrote: mtamburini - wasn't roleblocked, which is interesting, because when it was clear that he's going to shoot Yell0w he was blocked, but when he expressed his thoughts on being paranoic and wanting to shoot Bunny he wasn't blocked (instead it looks like the block was used blindly in the hopes to hit another power role, because no one else called their roles). Simple conclusion from that alone: Yell0w - mafia. Bunny - town. Meat - can be either. Tamburini wasn't actually seriously considering shooting Bunny during the night. He made a single post expressing suspicion about Bunny, and dfs wants to clear Bunny from this Tamburini not getting blocked. They also share a scumread on Yellow for much of the game, which is about the only thing I can find that links them to Eden. Really, I have a few things I can say about Bunny that make her a bigger scumread than Eden for me. Bunny has miraculously avoided getting shot at every single night. I don't know why, either, as she's been coasting as a town player the whole game since the beginning. This is one of the most suspicious things I can find about her. Her tracks are fairly covered, as she initiates conversations with Drav and dfs to find their reads and also places both of them in her scumlist at various times throughout the game, which Eden also happens to do. I misread Ahs, with one of the reasons being a lack of conversation between him and Drav/dfs. I know I didn't really attempt any communications either with Drav/dfs (actually I think Drav in the beginning a bit), but other than that, not much. Eden has had no direct conversation at all between dfs/Drav (unless I missed something), but my misread on Ahs makes me reluctant to use this information against Eden. If it weren't for random chance that Drav decided to talk to me in the early game too, I wouldn't have had any conversation with them either. Bunny was quite active at the beginning of the game and then started posting less and less. She was established as town at the beginning of the game and, I guess after being town-read by everyone, felt the need to stop contributing as much. Her contributive posts don't match up to the amount of effort and digging that Eden's and mine does. I feel that Eden could have just as easily hung back and still lynched another townie, but he went through a TON of effort in coming up with several of his posts trying to figure out the game, like these: + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2014 05:23 Eden1892 wrote: ##UNVOTE ##VOTE Yell0w I reread his filter and I don't like it at all. I put my vote down while I was writing this. Here's what I've got. N.B.: I've only thoroughly read his filter so far, haven't fully caught up in the thread proper. I've read a few things here and there to get context on his posts, but that's about it. - Initial interactions with bunnies: Upon rereading his filter, I don't like the tone of this post: bunnies certainly didn't seem to think the issue was resolved, for one. Seems like he's a little eager to sweep aside bunnies's initial prodding. His reaction also doesn't line up with his words before. He called bunnies "insane" for her line of questioning, then is immediately okay with her 20 minutes later. There's some other stuff that's wrong too, namely... Please. "I think X is more likely than Y, X clears me, therefore I'm statistically innocent" is a self-evidently terrible argument. This an agonizing 30 minutes before townclearing her, and 10 minutes before telling Amiko that he thinks she's town. This guy is way too defensive in the face of a bad initial argument from bunnies. - Worrying Way Too Much About Being Suspicious: I'm of course referring to this post. Who cares? What good does it do to know what rikory wanted to hear? If you're town you shouldn't care. It gets worse in his next post: So for one, straw men like "didn't know asking questions was frowned upon" raise my red flags immediately. This isn't a genuine question or remark at all. Secondly, again, why is he so worried about what ritoky thinks? This is silly if he's town (as it's distracting from scumhunting with useless conversation) and sensible if he's scum (as it's attempting to gauge why ritoky finds it suspicious in order to change behavior and become less suspicious). It gets better, believe it or not... Now he's whining about how bunnies isn't getting asked about the same thing, as though (a) both questions are the same in the first place and (b) in all other respects their play has been identical. I think the questions are similar but coming from different places -- bunnies is wanting to know why I'm not getting negative attention for my votes when people are calling pressure voting suspicious (town-motivated), Yell0w is just whining about how people are paying attention to him (scum-motivated or at best not-pro-town). bunnies has also separately been very proactive, Yell0w isn't (see next point). - Reactive Behavior: Yell0w hasn't done anything to be proactive this game. Part of it is being on the defensive early, but he's had plenty of time since then to build his own cases or even question people without being questioned first. This hasn't happened as an overall trend. He's hopped on the "Eden is weird" bandwagon, conveniently mentioning that he thought me "most suspicious" last night without doing any questioning either to develop his suspicions into a coherent case or to dispel them. Just like his "suspicion" of bunnies which was dropped in about a half hour (see above), he goes from "Eden was my top suspect last night" to "His behavior was really... weird [...] but it doesn't necessarily strike me as being mafia plays, so I don't know" in about an hour. Then immediately afterwards he jumps on "Sweetfrost is weird" when Epishade said it. This post is terrible: He "wanted to add" this factoid about Sweetfrost not reading the thread, but at the same time he doesn't actually do it until someone else expresses suspicion of Sweetfrost. OK. And then this passage at the end is just full of applause lights. tl;dr: - interaction with bunnies isn't good at all - way too defensive - not proactive or scumhunting at all Vote Yell0w. On May 01 2014 09:16 Eden1892 wrote: Why mtamburini Is Serial Killer Serial Killer vs Mafia Specifically reading someone as a serial killer as opposed to mafia on the first day is typically pretty difficult. The main long-run pattern that distinguishes the serial killer from a mafioso is that the serial killer doesn't coordinate with a team; you're only going to catch them purely by scumhunting in their actions specifically, as opposed to teasing them out as hypothetical teammates. On the first day, however, you can't really tease out mafia teammates definitively because you don't have any flips yet. All this to say that on the first day, behavioral analysis can tell us if someone is not town, but not if they are mafia or serial killer, because on the first day their behavioral incentives are largely the same. Usually, on the first day, that's enough of an obstacle to prevent being able to zero in on the serial killer. However, if the person in question talks enough about mechanical factors -- like roles -- as opposed to behavioral reads, certain divergent incentives can be parsed out which allow us to make the distinction between serial killer and mafia successfully. I intend first to prove that mtamburini's behavior is misaligned with town incentives and aligned with scum incentives (whether mafia or serial killer) and second to prove that mtamburini's role discussion doesn't align with mafia incentives but with serial killer incentives. This in turn will demonstrate that mtamburini is the serial killer. Why mtamburini Isn't Town Buddying mtamburini has been buddying 27ninjabunnies a lot throughout the game. It started during the joke phase, which is fine enough, but it continued on after bunnies started serious talk in this post -- directed, no less, at him. She calls him scum for trying to establish himself as town leader, which to me indicates drawing a clear line in the dirt saying "the game starts now." Here's a list of his posts buddying bunnies: - Here he says he REALLY hopes they're both town, invites her to rewatch an epicmafia game. The latter game is completely off-topic and we've moved on from the joke phase. The phrasing of that post is also bothering me. - Here is some completely useless filler cheerleading bunnies's pressure on Yell0w. Well, not totally useless. He's communicating to us that he saw this going down and didn't feel like commenting on it or developing it in any way. - Here, my god, what? His point on Yell0w is decent, but why the hell does he need bunnies to hold his hand while he votes for Yell0w? Is bunnies his seeing-eye dog, guiding him to the polling booth so that he can fulfill his civic duty to vote? - Here he takes up for bunnies in response to Yell0w's question. This isn't too bad and in isolation I wouldn't bother pointing it out. I made the same point. But in combination with these other examples it's clearly revealing a trend. - Free prize inside, he's buddying dfs here instead. Talking About Irrelevant Shit The title says it all, a good quarter of this guy's filter has nothing to do with the game. - No one cares about his past games. - No, really, no one gives a shit about his past games. - I can't tell what's worse, his ability to stay on-task or his music taste. - Is moose in this game? - Is moose a codename? Your favorite animal? What does this have to do with the game??? I was fair about this assessment and only took the posts from after the point I previously determined to be the beginning of "serious mode." You can see from the timestamps that this wasn't some isolated event, the guy went on like this for quite some time. Not Scumhunting This one might be a little bit of a surprise. He's pushing hard on Yell0w, right? So how can we write him up for scumhunting? Except that if we understand "scumhunting" to mean "an individual questioning or engaging suspects on a substantial level in order to develop his or her own case for killing a certain player," mtamburini hasn't really done anything like that. Let's look at his posts on Yell0w and see whether he qualifies or not... - Here he makes a good start, buddying of bunnies aside. Yell0w is indeed suspicious for worrying as much as he is about being townie. But he literally doesn't do anything to develop this point any further. Yell0w and I, for example, talked for a few posts back-and-forth about this point and what it means. mtamburini doesn't engage Yell0w on this at all: he never asks Yell0w why he was so worried about looking townie, nor does he respond to anything Yell0w said to me or to others about this same point when we did press Yell0w on it. - Here he adds "sarcasm" as a reason to lynch Yell0w. Not only is this point independently terrible, he does nothing to develop it further, and he commits the same behavior he says is indicative of scum, then when Yell0w calls him out on it, he doesn't even bother to handwave it, he just ignores Yell0w's point completely. - Here he says that Yell0w's defense has been "WIFOM" and not-game-related. Please. This coming from the king of off-topic nonsense. And simply handwaving everything someone says as "WIFOM" is utterly unconvincing. - Here in his role claim he says "I like tunneling its fun." At this point he's openly admitting that he's not trying to find mafia. Tunneling isn't trying to find mafia. mtamburini is scum because he's been buddying heavily, he's posted a lot of contentless trash and he's not actually scumhunting, just finding an excuse to park his vote on someone and ride out the phase. Why mtamburini Isn't Mafia mtamburini says that he claimed in order to dispel any confusion about there being multiple kills tonight, arguing that it's common practice in video mafia. For there to be any confusion about kills tonight, the number of kills in the night would have to subvert our expectations regarding the number of deaths. That means there would need to be more or fewer kills. mtamburini is telling us there will be more (he specifies two kills instead of one). If he were mafia, then he would have no way of assuring us that there's an extra kill, and he would have needlessly put himself in the line of fire on day two because he would have had to argue that the person he shot was separately shot by the mafia. This only works if he's the vigilante or the serial killer. The second thing pointing to him being the serial killer is his argument about the parity cop. He says that the parity cop should check him first then someone else n2, so that the parity can have perfect information about his scans. This would effectively turn the parity cop into a normal cop, which substantially increases the power of the cop. Doing this as mafia doesn't make sense; as soon as someone flips the wrong way, he's caught. This only works if he would actually scan as an innocent. He would scan as an innocent if he were the vigilante, the godfather, or the serial killer. Even if he's the godfather, though, this is a very bad strategy because the parity cop scanning the godfather as innocent still gives perfect information to the town; if the parity cop happened to scan his scumbuddy next, the scumbuddy would be lynched and flip guilty. This makes a lot of sense if he's a serial killer planning to take investigation immunity, however. In that case, anyone who scanned opposite to him would get lynched, which advances his agenda of killing off the mafia. Furthermore the mafia can't afford to nightkill him n1 because if he does take investigation immunity, he's effectively "upgraded" the parity cop to a normal cop. And if the mafia aren't going to nightkill him, and he's the serial killer, he doesn't have to worry about being nightkilled, so nightkill immunity isn't helpful anyway. He has no reason not to take investigation immunity here. mtamburini is the serial killer because his proposed strategy regarding his role and the parity cop doesn't make sense unless he's either the serial killer or the vigilante, and he's not town (see first half of case). mtamburini is the serial killer. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE mtamburini Though, again, I didn't agree with the vote, I feel that Eden felt he was advancing town in this scenario by getting rid of a potential extra kp in the night. Mafia wouldn't have an incentive to lynch a serial killer in most circumstances I think, right? So then it just depends on whether or not Eden actually believed Tamburini was serial killer, or if Eden was fooling us into believing he thought Tamburini was serial killer, when he actually believed the vigi claim. But still, that's a ton of effort that went into this post, linking everything Tamburini said in various places and what-not. For some reason, I feel that mafia wouldn't care to make as much effort as Town would to figure this out. Eden has also been on the case of people who have been outlier voting the whole game. On May 03 2014 06:51 Eden1892 wrote: Vote Count Sweetfrost (4): 27ninjabunnies, Epishade, Amiko, sqrtofneg1 mtamburini (3): MysteryMeat1, Eden1892, Yell0w Epishade (1): dravernor Yell0w (1): mtamburini sqrtofneg1 (2): Sweetfrost, dfs MysteryMeat1 (1): ahswtini ahswtini (1): ritoky Outliers from Group II: - dravernor - mtamburini - Sweetfrost - dfs - ahswtini - ritoky dravernor didn't do anything to try to get people to vote for Epishade, but I understand he's having internet access and time issues. He literally didn't post for 48 hours after he voted Epishade. I'm not taking him off the list of suspects here but it's too hard to tell right now whether or not he's mafia parking on an outlier or whether he's just being strangled by internet access problems. mtamburini, as I previously observed a full two days ago now, hasn't been scumhunting and didn't develop a real case against Yell0w. I could maybe find it in my heart to look at him less negatively if he had, after being called out for not scumhunting or making a case, cleaned up his act and worked harder on making his case. Reading through his filter since he acknowledged my post against him, he made exactly one reference to Yell0w since, and that was only to declare him as the target he would shoot tonight. I don't see him being town-motivated here; even if you want to shoot Yell0w tonight, why aren't you making your vote count, and why aren't you trying to find other scum? I think his focus is obvious, he's the serial killer and he's preoccupied with keeping his story straight instead of scumhunting. Sweetfrost flipped town. dfs doesn't post much at all, but his style is reminding me of RolandJarvis's from Newbie LIV. It's significantly less thorough, but it's also nothing that I find particularly suspicious right now. And to be fair, sqrt *might* have been a viable wagon if the votes were even a little different. But I don't really see where dfs did much at the end to create that wagon. (cf. me trying to recruit people to kill mtamburini) I need to see more from him because what he HAS said is fine, but he hasn't said enough and I don't feel he tried hard enough to get his preferred candidate lynched. ahswtini voted MysteryMeat1 because his posts didn't have a lot of content to them, which he felt was scummy. I kinda see the logic to it, but I'm a little confused why he said he "has no scumreads" literally the post before he declares Meat scummy. My main problem is that he says he "can see the case for Sweetfrost [...] and so [he doesn't] want to just jump onto that vote." He then says, next sentence, that the "votes ARE dangerously spread out." He says this while actively contributing to the spread. I'm sure someone's going to say that's too dummy to be scummy / mafia would never be this blatant / etc. but I'm going with the straightforward answer here, he's mafia. ritoky fits as a possible partner of ahswtini despite voting for him. Why? Because he didn't make any effort to get ahswtini lynched. But his other posts seem to be trying to figure things out, and don't seem to be especially scum-motivated. I'd like ritoky to explain why he didn't work very hard to get people to kill ahswtini if he thought ahswtini is scum, and we'll go from there. This action moves him back to null because while everything he posted before then sounds good, his actions wrt voting don't look good, and I think that in the end you're going to catch scum not by whether their words seem townie or scummy but rather by how well their actions line up with what they're saying. ritoky did argue against both lynches, but he didn't argue in favor of his. If he's mafia, then knowing neither lynch candidate is mafia, he looks good objecting to both while parking his vote on a suspicious teammate. === I'm running out of time with this post, but there's two suspects (ahswtini and ritoky) if I die tonight. Tomorrow I'll work on cutting into the people on the major wagons and teasing out more possible suspects and interactions. On May 13 2014 08:03 Eden1892 wrote: Some more thoughts: - I went back and looked at the dfs lynch. The only outlier at day's end aside from dfs himself was ahswtini voting for 27ninjabunnies. Check the votes today, and ahswtini, with a far better chance of getting bunnies lynched... is voting for me, and not commenting on bunnies at all. Please. - Aside from that, and assuming there is another mafia teammate out there, we know dfs's teammates bailed on him. Thus, what we should not be looking at is when people voted for dfs, but why. People who either built a decent case on dfs, or voted dfs after asking him some questions and trying to discern his alignment, or otherwise showed clear deliberation about the dfs lynch, are town. People who just parked a vote on dfs and peaced out are scum selling out their teammates. Here's a breakdown of everyone's thoughts on dfs last turn correlating to their vote: Yell0w: Parks vote on dfs, only posts one more time in the thread to whine at me for finding him suspicious. He claims to have "already made a case on dfs," but I can only find posts here and here that even approach the level of "making a case," and in neither instance do they satisfy my understanding of what a case should be. The first post is "well no one will go on my REAL scumread, and I really don't want to lynch dravernor [editor's note: who was scum], so I'll vote for dfs instead." That's not a case. The second post is a decent point about the shady interactions between dravernor and dfs, but not exactly what I'd call a "case." Recall that at the time we only knew dravernor was scum, and dravernor didn't have significant interactions with anyone. If I were in Yell0w's shoes looking at the same data, I would be asking more questions or at least listening to others' posts on the matter; hell, Yell0w himself is incriminated by the same logic, since dravernor didn't significantly interact with anybody and Yell0w didn't significantly interact with dravernor except to do anything in his power not to vote for dravernor the day she was lynched. There's a pretty good case for Yell0w busing dfs for credit here, because he made an appeal to a by-no-means conclusive case against dfs and bailed on the thread for the day after that. bunnies: More or less just followed Epishade's case onto dfs here. Also fits the bill for "busing teammate," though she stuck around afterward to talk to people and further develop her reads. Of the two I think it's obvious that Yell0w is the more likely scum candidate. Epishade: Makes his case here. Self-explanatory, this is clearly the result of reasoned, deliberate detective work, not a bus. Eden: Finally votes for dfs here after looking for reasons not to vote dfs here. If dfs was deliberately bused for town credit, this ain't it. Eden has no reason to do this, having already spearheaded the dravernor lynch, and being on the tail end of a scum lynch doesn't get you town credit anyway. I don't think this makes Eden more town, just that it makes him an invalid candidate for the whole "dfs's teammates sold him downriver" idea. So the plausible candidates for a fourth mafia, to ahs's third, based on last turn are Yell0w or, less likely but still possible, bunnies. I think it's obviously Yell0w of those two. - Yell0w's arguments against me are manipulative and wrong: 1) He says he wants to kill me because meat said so. He's ignoring -- and hoping you'll all ignore with him -- the fact that meat said to kill ahswtini first, and that ahswtini is voting for me and was voting for me when Yell0w put his vote down. This is the main thing that's driving me to think that Yell0w and ahswtini are partners and that we have four mafia. If Yell0w were really following meat's reads like he's insinuating he is, why isn't he going in the order that meat said? The obvious answer is that it's LYLO, he and ahs are teammates and he knows that he can win it this turn by getting me killed instead of his teammate. And if he's really town following meat's reads, why isn't he really skeptical about the fact that meat's top scumread is voting for me? 2) He says I'm "not even trying anymore to give reasons to lynching [him]" and then goes on to name the reason I voted to lynch him. Please. He's acting like "not trying to find the mafia" isn't a valid reason to kill someone at LYLO. It's completely valid, I've made the case nearly a week ago now for that and he still hasn't found the time to rebut it satisfactorily. He says he's not mafia because he lead the vote on dfs, when that's demonstrably not true; I've covered this earlier in this post. Most damning to me is the line after that: "I know I didn't post much yesterday, but dfs was mafia and he was getting killed, there was nothing else to say." You're kidding me, right? There's at least one mafia and very likely two mafia still out there, and this guy says there was nothing else to say. This proves to me that Yell0w was just busing dfs for credit. If he were actually town and sure about dfs getting lynched, he would spend the remaining time trying to find the other teammate(s) hiding out. 3) He says I just voted dfs because I didn't have a better target. Yup, after a lot of thinking about the game and finding myself unable to convince people to vote for my main suspects -- and I certainly tried; I thought the fact that the people everyone was scumreading just piled onto dfs was sketch and I pointed it out, no one responded to it -- I went on dfs over bunnies. I think that was an obvious choice regardless of my alignment. I'm not going to argue this makes me more townie, only that it's manipulative to say it makes me scummy. It's null. The choice was too clear no matter what. 4) He says I bused dravernor for town credit. Again, please. Where's the proof of this? Epishade's already addressed this point pretty well I think, you'd have to argue that dravernor was playing her entire game from D1 just to set herself up for me to bus her on D3 because we were scumreading each other the whole game. That argument that can only come from trying to make a retroactive justification for a conclusion you've already adopted. Any honest assessment of my interactions with dravernor and dfs has to conclude I'm obviously town. tl;dr: read it If I move off Yell0w, I'm only moving off of Yell0w to prevent vote-splitting. I'm the current lynch target which means all three of Epishade/bunnies/me need to unite our votes. If bunnies and Epishade won't vote Yell0w but will vote ahswtini, I'll move to ahswtini, because I think Yell0w and ahswtini are scum. If they won't vote either, we lose anyway. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. A lot of what Eden brings up feels like someone who's really trying to figure things out. His posts are methodical and he really goes in-depth in them. More in-depth than I think a mafia would be willing or capable of doing. Bunny was also willing to talk during the night, at a point where I feel that town had no benefit of talking during the night. Had I raised suspicions on Yellow, there's a chance Yellow might still have been alive, and Eden might have been shot instead. Talking during the night in the situation that we were in would only give mafia a better idea of who to shoot, based on who has suspicions on which people. I could see that. Maybe Eden could see that too (as opposed to not talking to appear more townie as mafia). Of all people, I'm surprised Bunny wasn't able to think that one through. Maybe we all have slip-ups and that was just one of yours? It's a little difficult for me to say I'd believe that was a slip-up though. For Eden, the main suspicious thing I find about Eden is his scumread on Yellow the entire game, when I feel that Yellow was a strong town-read for me. Another thing I have on Eden was his asking Tamburini who he was going to shoot. He admitted he didn't think that one through. The last one was asking us if either of us were parity cops. Idk what he would have done with that information if one of us had answered yes lol. Certainly wouldn't believe it if either of us said yes, and no way to check either. It's a little weird at this point to be asking that I thought, but it might have been a trap. If Bunny or I were mafia though, I don't think we'd be dumb enough to fall for it. If one of us said yes to that, we'd never be able to explain our actions throughout the course of this game as being the second worst parity cop in all of TL mafia. On the flip side, in one of the posts spoilered above, Eden counters Yellow's point that in order for himself to have been mafia this game, Drav would have had to have been setting herself up to be bussed from day 1. It's not something that I can likely see happening in this game. I think I feel that, right now, Bunny is more worthy of getting voted from me. Sorry Bunny. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 16 2014 02:11 27ninjabunnies wrote: Eden- Tbh- Eden was pretty town d1. His push on yell0w wasn't too hard to seem scummy, but it wasn't too soft ether. He gave reasonings that were actually pretty good. His switch onto tamburini was weird, even if tamburini was serial killer. His reasonings were too. + Show Spoiler + On May 01 2014 11:51 Eden1892 wrote: You're not assessing this properly. Take a look at my incentives with each alignment. Town: I want to kill the serial killer and the mafia if I believe both to be in the game. I think mtamburini is fakeclaiming as serial killer because his claim only makes sense in the scenario I described in my big post. He's just making himself the n1 kill if he's actually the vigilante, which is colossally stupid. It's better for me to kill the serial killer over a mafia because removing the serial killer takes away 1 of the 2 anti-town kp. If I killed, say, Yell0w and he flipped scum, we've caught a mafia, but we're equally close to winning (as in either case we've killed 1 anti-town player), and we still have 2 anti-town kp instead of one to deal with. The serial killer is always the better kill. Mafia: I can just shoot mtamburini tonight without drawing any attention to myself if I think he's actually the vigilante. If I'm mafia and I come out with this big case saying that the vigilante is actually the serial killer, and I don't get him lynched, I'm getting shot that night. If I do get him lynched, I'm getting myself lynched the next day. In both cases I'm needlessly throwing away my life to get rid of a vigilante I could just shoot that night at no cost. You could also, as mafia shoot the serial killer, because serial killer always has the chance of shooting your mafia partners. However, that is neither here nor there. The fact that Eden doesn't even bring up the possibility ofa roleblocker makes me think that he is more town in this instance. Wouldn't that imply that he knew serial killer wouldn't have taken the immunity from 1 kp during the night? If Eden were mafia, I don't think he'd risk wasting a shot on serial killer at night. Regardless of that, your implication that just because Eden doesn't bring up there being a potential roleblocker makes him more town doesn't seem like a good reason to me. It's a minute detail that Eden could have left in or out regardless of his alignment and it would mean nothing. It seems to me that you are forcing cases to make Eden seem like town so that you can vote for me instead. Eden scum reads both mafia all days that he gives his reads. That is some major bussing there if he is mafia. Eden's posts are actually consistant with finding mafia. So my read has flipped. Epishade is probably the mafia out of you two. I agree here too. I don't think Eden is mafia because of the bussing that would be necessary from day 1 if he were. He's been scumreading them both as mafia for most of the game, something that, I'll admit, I haven't done all that much. But Drav and dfs have been hard scumreading me the entire game, and Eden for the most part too. What sense would it make for both Drav and dfs to scumread me from Day1 for the whole game if I were their partner? Then they turn around and clear you as town, sometimes for odd reasons, like in the post that I made before. Eden also drove the wagon on Drav too at a time when he probably could have switched to Meat and saved a potential teammate. Eden's not mafia for me, which only leads to you then. Epishade So the only thing that Epishade has going for him is that he was townread by basically the entire town, including me and Eden, though Eden was iffy on him at one point, but switched his read on him. Also, ritoky, (something Eden pointed out in one of his reads) is really sure that epishade is mafia here. Not sure if it is something fully we need to look at. This was something I said to Meat, too, and was why I questioned Meat to begin with. I'll post my response to Meat as it ties in here: I don't think many people here suspected Ritoky as being scum. (I may be wrong, I'm going off memory here and don't want to look through the whole thread to see people's thoughts on Ritoky) So it's not entirely unlikely for mafia to kill Ritoky as he was town-viewed by many people and probably wouldn't have ever been a lynch candidate. However, I think it's interesting to note that you think Ritoky was killed because he viewed me as scum, instead of the above, that he was town-viewed by majority. What about a scenario like this: Ritoky thinks I'm scum. Mafia kills Ritoky. Someone (mafia) steps up and says that Ritoky must have been on the right path to have been killed. Person that steps up thinks it's suspicious of me since Ritoky died and he suspected me most. Now, I made that post before I realized something. I didn't catch this until an hour or so ago, but you made some posts here. On May 06 2014 10:06 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay, so I got roleblocked once again in the night. I wanna say that since Ritoky brought up the idea of jailkeeper, and that I could have been blocked by the JK, then I'm asuming he was the one wh blocked/saved me. So if mystery AND tamburini got blocked as well, then we are looking at a town and mafia roleblocker left. Ok, so you've figured out that Ritoky is likely the jailkeeper since he brought up the possibility of a jailkeeper protecting you. Assuming you're mafia, you know you don't really need the protection. You have no reason not to kill him next, as he is a blue role that could potentially negate one of your shots. If you're not mafia, and you're actually town, then this was a bad post. You're alerting mafia to the chance that Ritoky is jailkeeper. No reason to figure out blue roles like that in this game and then say who you think it is to town. Then you have this post after Ritoky gets shot and Tamburini asks why he shouldn't shoot people. On May 08 2014 14:13 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay, tamburini, you shouldn't shoot me because I was obvious town being roleblocked by the jailer, which mafia confirmed by killing off of ritoky, who pretty much claimed to roleblock me. Not only this, but I have been seemingly town, trying to figure out game, and though I have pushed mislynches on several people, did push the lynch on dravernor yesterday, when I could have easily voted off meat and (probably) lost town the game. Also, because I am no longer being protected by jailer in the night, I'm more than likely going to be killed in the night. So here is who I would shoot. I would shoot between Ahs, dfs, and Eden, in that order. I can give information as to why but I'm mostly using process of elimination. Obviously, if you are vigi, you and I are town. I find Epishade and Eden more townie than not though I am wary that one of them might be a very good mafia scum leading more noobish mafia team, however, I wouldn't shoot them just yet. If you weren't blocked in the night, more or less we must believe meat's claim, or atleast for now. So he is off the table until tomorrow. Yell0w, although while I was initially d1 scumreading because of how he was trolly and claimed mafia, I believe he is town as he has been trying to figure out the game. Good luck gentlemen. Isn't it a bit strange to be clearing yourself as town just because you were protected by the jailkeeper? Sure, everybody saw you as town at this point, but I would in no way clear even myself just because I was blocked by jailkeeper. Nobody has any clue that jailkeeper actually was doing the right thing by blocking you. Ritoky just happened to believe you were town at risk of dying in the night, so he protected you. To claim that mafia confirmed your townieness by killing off Ritoky after protecting you doesn't make any sense. You didn't need the protection anyways because you were mafia. Of course you were going to kill Ritoky as soon as you figured it out, which you did in the post above this. The fact that Dravernor and dfs were both mafia here, puts pretty high suspicion on Epishade. Meat also died in the night, and had a scumread on Epishade, dravernor, and dfs as the mafia trio. Meat had a scumread on Drav, dfs, Ahs, and Eden, in that order when he died. I wasn't in his scumread, but I still don't usually think you should take into account the reason somebody died being their previous thoughts on people. I happened to move forward with the Ahs lynch after Meat died not just because of Meat's trap, but also as a result my own detective work. Ahs was a special circumstance that in that I did include information that Meat had gathered in weighing my decision to vote for him. SO for me, it seems as mostly the data points to epishade here. Also, someone pointed out, that epishade and I seemed to be buddying. Either epishade jumped in my pocket, or my into his. I think it's the latter because of how townie I was reading him, and the fact I think he is mafia. I find it weird here that Epishade puts dravorner as neutral read, and votes yellow. I do suppose that is a read I have going against me. I wanted to go in-depth on my read on Drav, but by the end of making the whole post I realized I was inconclusive. There wasn't enough evidence to push Drav one way or the other at the time for me. I voted Yellow at the time because, though I didn't think he was scum, I didn't think anybody else in particular was scum either. I'd rather vote on Yellow and get solid information out of it, since he's been the center of attention, than some random person and get nothing. So epishade reads: Had Dravernor as slight town d1, gave no read on dfs except that he talked a bit.Scum reads on and off on dfs and dravernor in the following days Both of you are fantastic players (definitely not newbie, especially if Eden's playing in that champions game haha), and for whoever is mafia, I commend you on a job well done. I am town here, is the best I can say. If anyone has any questions feel free to ask ##Vote: Epishade Same. I'm still not convinced not to vote for you though Bunny, sorry. ##VOTE: 27ninjabunnies | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
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And I personally don't think Ritoky reading you as town matters much at this point. Everyone read you as town back then. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
I disagree with Eden about Bunny freaking out disproportionately. I don't think that indicates a caught mafia. She has a right to be freaked out about being lynched, but mafia or town regardless would (or rather, should) have the same reaction. If anything that just means she's passionate about the game. I wouldn't indicate that as a particular alignment trait. And Bunny, I'm sorry, but continuously telling us that you're town doesn't help. Mafia would be saying exactly the same thing in your situation. The only thing I can do is look at the evidence for you and Eden. And it doesn't point in your favor. If Eden is in fact mafia and we lose, I know I'll have looked at all the evidence and came to my best decision I could have made with what I found. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 15 2014 17:20 Eden1892 wrote: Nah I was just asking because I thought for sure there was a parity cop in the game and I wanted to save myself some time. I'd have believed either of you claiming it. Looks like we don't have one though. Erm, why would you have believed either of us claiming it if we had? Wouldn't that just mean you don't really care which one of us gets lynched? Say Bunny said that she was cop. Does that mean you'd believe her and just vote for me? | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 16 2014 08:47 27ninjabunnies wrote: I still don't see how it doesn't point in my favor. I have multiple CONFIRMED TOWN reading me as town. One of them, being tamburini, saying NEVER lynch me this game. The highest point each of you have on me is that 1, my posts have been lacking towards the end of the game, which I've already pointed out reasons for, and 2, that scum read me as town. Well guess what, SO DID THE ENTIRE TOWN. Also, name a place where my reads havent been conistant or have had back up to? I voted dravernor, and told him/her to speak, in which dravernor did nothing to prove otherwise he was town. So I kept my vote on him. Sure, I didn't give an elaborate reading on her for the lack of her posting. She only had 2 pages of filter!!! And dfs only had 3! I voted on both mafia. Why would I buss in that instance, lose 2 mafia partners, when I could have jumped on the yell0w bw? Or meat bw? When those votes were going through. If I was mafia, we COULD HAVE WON by now if I had placed my votes elsewhere. But n, instead i vote off 2 of my mafia partners? Please. I LED on 1 mafia, and voted the other. Confirmed town reading you as town means nothing. Town doesn't know who's actually mafia. Confirmed mafia reading you as a particular alignment means a heck of a lot more. They know each alignment. Their reads are a lot more reliable in regards to actually catching mafia. Them scumreading me and Eden, and townreading you leads me to believe that you're the mafia of the three of us. And then you claiming that Drav was scumreading you in your earlier post, when, in reality that was only for a very short time before she cleared you as town, also adds to your scummyness for me. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 16 2014 08:56 27ninjabunnies wrote: Also, look at my post on the previous page. I pointed out multiple posts, over multiple days, where Drav had either fenced me or scum read me, then changed his read. All over a couple of days. So you are both wrong. Let me recheck then. Hold on. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
@Eden, just how would she have proven her claims that you'd have been willing to believe them. Nobody's here to refute them. How could they have checked out? She could have just made up anything and you'd have no way of telling that she was lying or not. | ||
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Epishade
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On May 16 2014 09:32 27ninjabunnies wrote: it means I am mafia WE GOT'EM! | ||
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Epishade
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On May 16 2014 09:17 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay, the reason why I said the yell0w thing is because of this. I had no idea which one of you it is, but yell0w was my top town read. If you were town, Eden, and yell0w pointed you out as his number one scum, epishade would have kept yellow alive, because he knew he would go on you, and therefore he could pass off as town, and get you ml. However, yell0w died, which points to you being mafia anyway. Also, tbh, I forgotten days are 48 hours and not 24 hours until someone pointed it out, so you may think that my defense is too defensive for right now, but I told you why I am getting defensive. Because i am town, and we need to find the actual mafia here. I already looked at this before. Case about Yellow getting shot. + Show Spoiler + Eden's been pushing for Yellow the whole game, save for a tiny bit where he thought Yellow might have been town. Yellow got shot during the night, as I'm sure Bunny made it clear that she thought Yellow was town. I also felt that Yellow was town, so there was little chance Yellow would be lynched. Here are the scenarios for me. 1.) Eden shot Yellow, as Yellow was sure to vote for him had he survived. Bunny would have jumped on that vote just as well, as she's been suspecting Eden for much of the game too. 2.) Bunny shot Yellow, as nobody would have voted for Yellow because he was read as town for much of the game. The only person that didn't read him as town was Eden, who would have likely voted for him in this scenario had Yellow survived. Yellow would have then voted on Eden, and Bunny would have jumped on the Eden vote. OR 3.) Bunny shot Yellow to frame Eden in the first scenario, had any of us thought of it and recognized it. I wish there were more of a use in analyzing Yellow's death, but it really doesn't help, as I think both scenarios 1 and 3 are equally likely. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 16 2014 09:43 27ninjabunnies wrote: I don't know why ya'll are going back and forth on me being parity cop, when I'm not parity cop. Is there a point to this? My reasoning was that if Eden asked us whether either of us were parity cops, and one of us said yes, he'd believe them and lynch the other person, regardless of actual alignment. I thought he was asking us as a trap at first, to see if either of us would claim, just because I thought it really unlikely for any of us to actually be parity cops and that if we did claim it would be like a trap, making us look scummy. Say you did claim, Bunny. Now Eden before said he'd believe them if they had claimed. The problem is that it is unfalsifiable. You can't prove your parity cop claim to us, yet Eden would be willing to vote for the other party if parity cop would be able to give sound reasoning for each step they took in this game. There's no way that parity cop could actually do that though! His response here is unsatisfactory for me. On May 16 2014 09:40 Eden1892 wrote: Not at all! If she were fake claiming, she'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose. Imagine she claimed normal cop instead of parity cop, and said she had a guilty on me and innocent on you. We can look at her actions this turn -- shifting back and forth between the two of us, unsure who's scum -- and know she's lying. There may not have been a counterclaim, but her scans still have to make sense with what she's said. I'd carefully reread her filter for any reads on the alleged scanned players and see if they make sense. "She'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose." Hell, I could do that too, if I had claimed parity cop. It might take a while, but I'd be sure to tie up any loose ends to make sure that all of my scans made sense. All my votes would match up and everything and you wouldn't be able to tell any difference. On May 16 2014 09:07 Eden1892 wrote: I don't mean that if she just threw out there that she was the parity cop I'd go "okay, I believe this 100%, lynch Epishade gg." She'd have to show how she breadcrumbed her scans, acted in accordance with her scan data, etc. But if the claim generally checked out then yes, even despite how innocent you've seemed this game, I'd have voted to kill you. Think of it as me asking for roleclaims at LYLO (which where I'm from is standard operating procedure if people haven't claimed yet). I just focused on the parity cop 'cause again, with a godfather and miller in the game it's reasonable to expect there to be one. Moot point anyway since no one claimed a PR. And, just because of that, Eden would be willing to lynch the other person. But you can falsely make a claim "check out". From my point of view, it looks like Eden would have been fine lynching the person who hadn't claimed, despite his alignment. The person that had claimed could make up a bunch of lies just to ensure they wouldn't get lynched, and then Eden would have an easier time lynching the person that didn't claim. I got a lot of thinking to do now. Unvoting you for now. I'm back to undecided. ##Unvote: 27ninjabunnies | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Neither of you feel like mafia! But Bunny has more evidence against her as far as I can tell. It's not much, but it's more than Eden has as far as I can tell. I'm still thinking it over. | ||
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Epishade
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He's all like, "I CAN'T BE THE KILLER, THIS IS CRAZY, I DIDN'T DO ANYTHING!" Then Bunny's all like, "I CAN'T BE THE MAFIA, THIS IS CRAZY, WHY AM I BEING PUSHED, I DIDN'T DO ANYTHING!" ^^ | ||
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