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[M][N] Default Suspicions Mafia - Page 45

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
February 21 2014 02:23 GMT
#881
On February 21 2014 11:18 prplhz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 21 2014 11:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
why would Palmar do that as scum.

what do i know maybe he doesn't want to push a guy to a lynch who is town or maybe he likes a toad lynch better or whatever make something up

don't you think it's weird that palmar is making bad associative reads?


I do and I really like this analysis

##unvote
##vote Palmar
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
February 21 2014 02:23 GMT
#882
yeah yeah lets lynch palmar gogogogogo vote.
No gg, No skill.
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
February 21 2014 02:25 GMT
#883
wtf is up with oats
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
February 21 2014 02:26 GMT
#884
we just want an explanation what the hell do you care?
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
February 21 2014 02:27 GMT
#885
I want an explanation from oats. I want his scum reads.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 21 2014 02:28 GMT
#886
On February 21 2014 10:53 Oatsmaster wrote:
why do you care suki?


Can you explain the motivation behind this oats?
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
February 21 2014 02:29 GMT
#887
reading your rather meager filter you're not even pushing for anything else, you're just crapping on us wanting an explanation from palmar
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
February 21 2014 02:33 GMT
#888
this is all too weird

##Vote Oatsmaster
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
Sylencia
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia1057 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-02-21 02:45:05
February 21 2014 02:44 GMT
#889
Current suspicions:

VIVAX420 (1): Oatsmaster, suki, sidesprang, Palmar, prplhz, Balla24, suki
Koshi (0): CuteFluffyPuppy, marvellosity, Koshi, suki, CuteFluffyPuppy
marvellosity (0): raynpelikoneet, VIVAX420
CuteFluffyPuppy (1): prplhz, CuteFluffyPuppy, CuteFluffyPuppy
Oatsmaster (1): Koshi, prplhz
raynpelikoneet (0): Balla24, raynpelikoneet, Toadesstern, prplhz
Palmar (1): Toadesstern, suki
Toadesstern (3): Palmar, VIVAX420, marvellosity, raynpelikoneet, Palmar
prplhz (0): suki, raynpelikoneet
Balla24 (2): suki, sidesprang, Toadesstern, suki
suki (3): raynpelikoneet, raynpelikoneet, Koshi, raynpelikoneet, Oatsmaster
sidesprang (0): Balla24

suki is now set to be lynched!
Next deadline:
Deadline date: Saturday, Feb 22 12:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
February 21 2014 02:47 GMT
#890
On February 21 2014 11:28 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 21 2014 10:53 Oatsmaster wrote:
why do you care suki?


Can you explain the motivation behind this oats?

It seems like suki is set on calling rayn town so I dont see why she cares about what rayn has to say about marv considering its almost certaintly gonna be wrong.
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
February 21 2014 02:49 GMT
#891
On February 21 2014 11:29 prplhz wrote:
reading your rather meager filter you're not even pushing for anything else, you're just crapping on us wanting an explanation from palmar

yes that is correct. How does that make me scum?
Im pushing the smurf/suki/toad bandwagon.
No gg, No skill.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
February 21 2014 02:54 GMT
#892
On February 21 2014 11:18 prplhz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 21 2014 11:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
why would Palmar do that as scum.

what do i know maybe he doesn't want to push a guy to a lynch who is town or maybe he likes a toad lynch better or whatever make something up

don't you think it's weird that palmar is making bad associative reads?

I dont think palmar is making 'bad' associative reads, I think that associative reads day 1 are bad but Palmar is perfectly justified for not being sure when like all of his scumreads jump on someone he thinks is scum.
No gg, No skill.
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
February 21 2014 03:02 GMT
#893
you're saying that you think associative reads on day1 are bad but you don't mind palmar being bad and we shouldn't even begin to question him because you were enjoying the silence
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
February 21 2014 03:06 GMT
#894
On February 21 2014 12:02 prplhz wrote:
you're saying that you think associative reads on day1 are bad but you don't mind palmar being bad and we shouldn't even begin to question him because you were enjoying the silence

I dont think palmar being bad makes him scum, no. We are having a great discussion about this prplhz, glad you brought it up
No gg, No skill.
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
February 21 2014 03:19 GMT
#895
it's not a problem that you don't think it makes him scum

it's a problem that you don't think it requires an explanation
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
February 21 2014 03:20 GMT
#896
even if it's a dumb question you disagree with i don't see why you care about someone else asking it
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
February 21 2014 03:53 GMT
#897
On February 21 2014 12:20 prplhz wrote:
even if it's a dumb question you disagree with i don't see why you care about someone else asking it

What are you referring to?
No gg, No skill.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 21 2014 05:49 GMT
#898
There is way too many people who I can't remember anything they've done. Even the high volume guys. Like rayn and marv you guys have posted a fuckton but I can't even tell who you guys are going to lynch at all, sure you've generated a lot of discussion but it's also a lot of chaos, maybe you guys thrive there...

Anyways, I think prplhz, suki are town for now.

prplhz started off from his very first post trying to start conversation, when that didn't work he tried something else. He has been very active in trying to push the thread in a positive direction and it's pretty clear that has been his goal the entire game based on how he's reacting to the thread on his returns to it:

On February 21 2014 06:24 prplhz wrote:
this game is all over the place


Following that he continues to pressure people and it's pretty clear where he is going to lynch and who he thinks is scum and why. Everything is clear and transparent from him compared to plenty of other guys in this thread who are masking their activities and reasoning. He is also thinking a lot like me, especially recently with his kush and palmar pressure so that's a plus.

suki is also probably town. Even though I don't like her approach to some people like Koshi and rayn, it seems like classic suki. She's hopping around between the people she accuses, reacting to their defenses. She often does that as town whereas as scum she's a lot more rigid with her reads (granted, she only has 1 scum game and that was a while ago). You can see that in Normal Mini Mafia, shadowed (non-reboot).

+ Show Spoiler [reactional suki] +

On January 21 2014 09:52 suki wrote:
You know what, I agree with you Barristan.

I think Zarepath's case on VE is just a list of points that tries to squeeze out any sort of scumminess. It's weak, but he sounds like he's trying so hard to make it work. His follow up posts are all trying to keep up the pressure on VE.

Compared to the filter linked by Barristan, Zarepath's tone has changed completely. In his previous game filter he had no problem listing off a bunch of people who he thought were scummy, and doing a bunch of analysis. In this game he's only talked about VE and no one else, and VE is not the only suspicious person in this game.

##unvote
##vote Zarepath

I'm going to lay off VE for a bit. Pressuring him is going nowhere and I think he's defended well.

On January 22 2014 02:21 suki wrote:
Yeah ok.

Show nested quote +
On January 21 2014 06:31 zarepath wrote:
On January 21 2014 06:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Nobody is lynching you VE.


Could you care to explain why VE is town despite him obsessing with everyone's opinions of him and blatant sheeping?

I made a whole case about him which everyone has completely ignored in the middle of your penis-measuring contest with Artanis.


Re-reading again, this post reads townie to me. Particularly the part where he points out that his case was ignored, I think for scum it doesn't matter if people listen to their arguments as long as a townie is getting lynched, so pointing out his post reads more town.

Tunneling can be done by town, stretching cases too far is also possible for a really tryhard town.

Zarepath's switch to bum doesn't make sense if both of them are scum. And I agree that bum looks scummy.

##unvote
##vote bumatlarge

On January 22 2014 06:00 suki wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 22 2014 05:52 bumatlarge wrote:
I was giving zarepath a free place to put his vote as long as I was intent on lynching VE. His reaction to my unvote has alot of motivation behind it.

At the time, Crossfire was gaining some traction, for an iffy post. Zare could have hopped on him, which I think is worth noting if one of them flips scum. Kush seems somewhat similar, but that was older votes.

I found his vote on me a bit backwards, considering that it was just for not pushing VE some more. I think it would it would be a poor choice for him to make as mafia. But I don't think he seems like he has a lot of experience as mafia.

The second scenario where I am scum and he is town is much more unlikely, because he has been on par with my thoughts the whole game, and he changes his mind to me when I stop pursuing both of our top scum reads. That is much more illogical coming from a townie, rather then what I think would be bad reasoning for him to do that as mafia.


I actually really really like everything here. Many of these things I didn't consider previously.

One other thing I was eyeing was Crossfire's soft defense of Zarepath earlier in the game. Couple this with Zarepath including Crossfire into his list just now (alongside a really stupid desire to lynch WileE)... I think there's a good chance of them being scumbuddies.

##unvote
##vote Zarepath

On January 22 2014 06:56 suki wrote:
##unvote

Zarepath obviously did not have a fakeclaim, his reaction was genuine.

On February 05 2014 02:24 suki wrote:
So right now Oats is super scummy to me.

His "case" against Koshi is bad, and yet he continues to push it. He's also not consistent with his views:

Show nested quote +
On February 04 2014 15:32 Oatsmaster wrote:
suki nullish, dunno why she is attacking you though, bad reasons but not inherently scummy.

Cakeman also null. Same with johnny. i mean, nobody is really pushing shit and its hard to figure out if they are posting for the sake of it or posting to find scum. Literally throughout the whole 7-8 pages there is no concerted effort to push someone by anyone.

Koshi scum for suggesting a really bad policy about post counts and nothing else. It feels like bait for scum to jump on but there is no followup.


Show nested quote +
On February 05 2014 00:49 Balla24 wrote:
On February 04 2014 15:47 Oatsmaster wrote:
Its so bad, so if its town koshi, I assume he doesnt mean it seriously and has some reason for posting it. But no signs of that so far.


Can you explain a bit more?

1. How does Koshi posting something "bad" make it bait for scum to jump on? Basically: what will scum do with it?
2. Did anybody jump on it?
3. Was this your first thought when you read it?



Show nested quote +
On February 05 2014 00:57 Oatsmaster wrote:
1. Scum will go and shit on Koshi for it because its bad and scummy.
2. yeah suki and some other dudes.
3. My first thought was why is koshi proposing such a useless policy.

mannnn Koshi's shitposting is AFTER his first post.


This is almost a scum claim right here. Oats is doing the exact thing that he says scum would do, and yet he's calling other people out for it.

Who is Oats willing to lynch today?

Show nested quote +
On February 05 2014 01:39 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yeah Im not telling you my conclusions because I want to hear what you think without my conclusions coloring your analysis.
I really null on cake, what he posts when he comes back is really important and will probably decided my read. Hopeless is a useless piece of shit that we should lynch.


(... On a side note, I don't approve of the personal attack calling Hopeless a 'useless piece of shit'.)

Anyways. He suddenly thinks Hopeless is super scummy, without any reasoning. This is after LoneMeow has stated suspicions on Hopeless so it feels like a bandwagon. Hopeless was one of the people who didn't shit on Koshi's policy, and said that the policy makes him feel motivated. So this big scum tell that Oats has been pushing the entire game doesn't apply to his choice of lynches?

He reads cake as null and yet it's cake and hopeless who he wants to discuss. Why not me, who you said was scummy for 'jumping on Koshi's policy' or those 'other dudes' that you so specifically called out?

Why is LoneMeow town even though he was the most vocal about probably not meeting Koshi's 40 post policy?

Hm. Also this exchange just leaves a bad taste in my mouth:
Show nested quote +
On February 04 2014 12:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
Hi guys, [jay] probably town

Show nested quote +
On February 04 2014 12:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
On February 04 2014 12:17 suki wrote:
On February 04 2014 12:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
On February 04 2014 12:13 suki wrote:
And what reasons do you have for saying Jay is town?

he's trying to advance the game to find scum duhhhh.


Sorry I must be a bit slow. Can you provide a few examples where you feel that he is advancing the game to find scum?

asking all those questions


Also, why does Oats avoid Balla's question here? He's not being transparent, and if he thinks Balla is town then why throw the question back at him?

Show nested quote +
On February 05 2014 01:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
On February 05 2014 01:53 Balla24 wrote:
Before I answer that can you answer me this:

Am I leaning town or scum? Same for LM.

I thought you disapproved of the asking questions before giving your own answers?




In summary, Oats is calling people scummy for something that he himself is actively doing. His reads on people seem random, rather than thought out. There's no logical progression on why he thinks Hopeless is super scummy and worth lynching (it feels like bandwagoning to try to push an easy lurker lynch). There's no explanation on why LoneMeow is town to him despite the dissonance with his 'Koshi policy' case.

When asked to explain himself he's extremely reluctant. He tries to deflect attention from himself. This all reads as scum to me.

##vote Oatsmaster

On February 05 2014 14:54 suki wrote:
I think Oatsmaster's defense addresses my case sufficiently, and I like the direction he's taken after defending himself. That is, his tunnel on Hopeless.

I've noted that previously as town he correctly called out hopeless for being scum in TL Mafia XLIII: Time to Die, basically for lurking and not contributing. He is doing the same here in his pressure on Hopeless.

I'm still waiting on Hopeless to contribute something to the thread. Most of his posts are defense posts and fluff, he keeps promising content but hasn't delivered.

##unvote
##vote Hopeless1der


At this point I also would be happy to lynch LoneMeow. He's done absolutely nothing this game. I think sidesprang's contributed more to this game in his one big post than LoneMeow has in his entire filter.

On February 06 2014 01:31 suki wrote:
##unvote
##vote cakemanofdoom

Hopeless is making sense.

cake has been wishy washy all game. He bandwagons onto Hopeless, even though he thinks Koshi is mafia. He's ok with voting LoneMeow because LM is lurking.

Like, he's taking the easy path. I read through his filter and I learn absolutely nothing. Like, it seems like he's contributing but when you really look closely he's not really saying anything that progresses towards a lynch. Even his case against Koshi feels non-enthusiastic.



+ Show Spoiler [Confident Scum Suki] +

On January 07 2014 09:49 suki wrote:
Hey guys, I'm back.

First and foremost I think it's prudent to address the person that strikes me as the number one scum in the game:

theDragoon

Show nested quote +
On January 06 2014 15:49 theDragoon wrote:
On January 06 2014 15:30 JonnyLaw wrote:


Excuses, bandwagoning and self doubt in one line.

I'm down to lynch Asuna or OWB at this point.

Dragoon and Chyz read more as if they're trying but misguided.


That's enough of a reason to lynch Asuna? I don't see that as good enough to suspect Asuna of being mafia, unless you know more than what you've said there. Those 3 things you listed there is just a sign of an inexperienced player, it has nothing to do with being a scum.


Show nested quote +
I said that because his reasoning to lynch Asuna was basically due to Asuna's inexperience, which I think is not a good enough reason to be lynched when there are a lot more suspicious people out there. I don't know if Jonny knows more about Asuna, I only thought that because I was not buying his reason to lynch Asuna.


The more I read these posts the more I dislike them. He's basically stating that he knows Asuna's "excuses, bandwagoning and self doubt" are due to her inexperience, and he's not leaving any room to interpret them as scummy. How would a town Dragoon be so sure? I'm more and more confident that the 'knows more about Asuna' line really is a scum slip.

Other things that scream scum to me:
theDragoon's knee jerk reaction to vote OWB because of an incorrect timeline.
- Attacking his attacker for a slight inconsistency.
His statement that Balla is rising up on his suspicions list with Balla's 'immediate' jump to lynch him.
- More of the same
His flip-flopping on Derrida, first saying his suspicion is 'low' and then on his very next post saying Derrida is higher up.
- Scummy enough, and he even admits that he's flip-flopping

His top scum reads are Day_Walker because he doesn't like that Day_Walker has a town read on him (???), and me, because he thinks I'm too eager to scumhunt (also ???). And aside from his knee-jerk suspicions thrown at OWB, Balla and now Derrida he hasn't contributed any other reads.

+ Show Spoiler +

His top 2 scum read post:


I'm not good enough at this game to get scum reads from forum posts. If you REALLY want me to give my top 2 most suspicious people are:

Day_Walker: If I don't buy his town read on me, why should I believe his other reads. I've got the most votes on me right now and I want to see if Day_Walker still thinks I'm a townie.

suki: "Okay then, lets get back to scumhunting :D". A bit too eager to go scumhunting there, don't ya think? Not really a good reason to call him mafia.



And finally under all this pressure then he says his play is due to him being new to the game and self-destructs.

I feel a lot of frustration in Dragoon's most recent posts, and I kind of feel bad for him since he is new to Mafia and this is a really gut-wrenching game, but I really do think his inexperience is his downfall and that there's no way he's not mafia here.

##vote theDragoon

More analysis on its way. If there's anything you want me to answer post it; I'll be here for a bit.

On January 07 2014 15:33 suki wrote:
Mmm.. I'm not biting.

Show nested quote +
From that, your reason to lynch Asuna was basically due to his inexperience. Not a good enough reason to warrant being lynched. It was also something I can relate with as I myself am prone to making excuses, bandwagoning and having self doubt, if I don't want to be lynched because I have those traits, I certainly don't want others to be as well.


This isn't good townie logic. Excuses, bandwagoning and self-doubt may be signs of newbie town, but they are also signs of mafia. You can't excuse someone for displaying mafia traits just because you display them. Again, it feels like you know that Asuna is a newbie town and that's what's suspicious here.

Show nested quote +
Suki to me sounds like a scum trying to take advantage of this situation, to get a townie a guaranteed lynch.

Show nested quote +
I'll have to warn the town about Suki, BigDad, Derrida and possibly Day_Walker (my so called scumbuddy).


The pro-town thing to do in your spot is to post the best analysis you can on the scummiest people you can find. This just feels like a last-ditch attempt to try to throw suspicion on everyone who voted you under the pretense of a "defense post" and see if someone bites.

On January 07 2014 15:42 suki wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2014 15:10 Balla24 wrote:
I can't believe how some of you guys are so confident about how dragoon will flip scum. Suki, Jonny specifically..


I think I was pretty clear in my posts as to why I think Dragoon is scum.

I feel that his defense of Asuna is a major scum slip and the more he tries to justify it the more I believe it.

Dragoon has also not played a pro-town game at all. His only scum reads have been on those who are attacking him, and he hasn't even taken the time to properly form a case. Like, I still don't know why he thinks I'm scummy

Show nested quote +

suki: "Okay then, lets get back to scumhunting :D". A bit too eager to go scumhunting there, don't ya think? Not really a good reason to call him mafia.


I think that's the only reason he's given as to why I'm scum. Here is his defense post on me:

Show nested quote +

@Suki

theDragoon's knee jerk reaction to vote OWB because of an incorrect timeline.
- Attacking his attacker for a slight inconsistency.


I reacted to that inconsistency because he was trying to frame his argument based on the fact that I "changed my mind" about Day_Walker. He said something along the lines of me saying I changed my mind THEN... Day_Walker mentioned something. The only reason why I even mentioned Day_Walker at all is because Balla24 asked me what I thought, then people started putting words in my mouth saying I trusted him.

His flip-flopping on Derrida, first saying his suspicion is 'low' and then on his very next post saying Derrida is higher up.


New information pops up, you reread things you change your opinions. How's that scummy at all?

Suki to me sounds like a scum trying to take advantage of this situation, to get a townie a guaranteed lynch.

there's no way he's not mafia here.


Everyone watch out for Suki, her true nature as a scum will be revealed when I get flipped.



Where is the analysis? He's just blindly attacking me because hey, I straight up said he's the scummiest person in the game. Same with the other people he's called out.

I'd be very surprised if he bleeds green because his play has not been pro-town at all.

On January 08 2014 01:06 suki wrote:
Directed to Balla:

Several recent quotes from Balla:

+ Show Spoiler +

This is the most one sided lynch ever. I'm sorry but this should seriously be making you weary (suki/jonnylaw). The people who are not voting seem to also be tentatively saying that they are ok with the lynch if it were to happen now, besides Day_walker who probably is thinking along the same lines of this tbh.

I'm searching for a new target. I really don't like how hard you lurked today sidesprang, so I'd lynch you just based on that, but other than that, I find Derrida pretty scummy.


Ugh it's just so hard because I totally can see how scum would buss their teammate in this current situation. It's different than other one-sided lynches in the previous games because of how dragoon shut-down. Like I would totally buss him..

If I were scum, I would probably begin to buss him after he self-voted, so i'd look @ Derrida, suki and sidesprang (if im jsut looking at it chronologically, jonnylaw too)



I mean, let's be honest, there is 100% for sure scum in the people who already voted him. Having them have a forced hand on what they think about him might be a good thing. It's gonna be a weight on EVERYONE's back, not just towns.



I agree that the lynch on theDragoon is going smoothly, however that could just be mafia seeing the writing on the wall and deciding not to oppose. I agree that the smoothness of the lynch needs to be considered, however in the end we should still be lynching the scummiest person. Do you disagree?

Also, you were the second person to vote for theDragoon, and your vote hasn't changed since then. I just want to clarify, do you still find theDragoon to be the most scummy?

On January 13 2014 23:43 suki wrote:
Alright I'm here.

I had a reread through TheChyz's filter and I think he's been slipping hard since Day 2 ended.

Here is TheChyz's conversation with Balla during Night 2, bolded parts for emphasis:
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 12 2014 03:52 TheChyz wrote:
Anyways I still want to reread some peoples filters to make sure I didn't confuse things between people and I'll have my explanation before night ends, but can you post yours aswell Balla :
"Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later."

On January 12 2014 03:57 Balla24 wrote:
Also: there's 3 hours left, if I were going to post it I would have plenty of time to post it. I lost faith in the theory anyways.

On January 12 2014 04:03 TheChyz wrote:
And Balla, thats a bullshit reason not to make your post. You said "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later" and since you keep pestering others to explain their thoughts, I expect you to do the same.

On January 12 2014 04:06 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 04:03 TheChyz wrote:
And Balla, thats a bullshit reason not to make your post. You said "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later" and since you keep pestering others to explain their thoughts, I expect you to do the same.


NO fuck that that's so scummy. It's pretty obvious what I had to say was due to night actions. You're pretty silly if you can't see that. So why would I post it 3 HOURS before the night is over and let mafia plan around that.

MOST IMPORTANTLY THOUGH: Why are you pushing me so hard for it? I'm clearly active. This is SO fricking scummy from you Chyz. Do you need it to make a decision on what to do with your scum buddy?


On January 12 2014 04:22 TheChyz wrote:
@Balla
What is so scummy about it, your doing the exact same thing from everybody else and forcing them to explain things, what makes you such a special case that whenever you say something we should just let you pass cause your active? Jonny (i think) said that you are active both scum and town so I find no reason why you felt that posting that you will post your thoughts later and then now not wanting to is scummy from me. Seems like your being very defensive. And you don't have to post now, just before night ends (even if its 1 sec before)

On January 12 2014 04:40 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 03:14 Balla24 wrote:
On January 11 2014 07:06 TheChyz wrote:
Gotta go for a few hours, will be back afterwards. This vote kinda sucks but I think there is quite a wealth of information that can be garnered from it.


What info can be garnered from it? Want your analysis before night ends!


Chyz you skipped this too.

On January 12 2014 05:00 TheChyz wrote:
I didn't skip it, it will be done before the night ends. still got time.



First off, I feel that TheChyz's pressure on Balla is really off. He pressures Balla for not providing his reads, and Balla replies there's still three hours before the night is over. TheChyz calls bullshit on Balla's reasoning. Following that, Balla asks TheChyz for analysis, and TheChyz simply replies there's still time. This inconsistency stands out to me, and I think there's a very good reason for it if you assume TheChyz is mafia - He wants to know what Balla's reads are before he posts his own analysis.

There is no reason to assume Balla is not 1-shot vig as he claimed, and yet TheChyz seems to be getting ready to throw suspicion at Balla. Perhaps if Balla had his reads completely wrong and had posted them early enough, scum may have kept Balla alive. TheChyz posts his analysis at 2:58, 2 minutes before the deadline. Balla posts his at 2:59. The day post is posted at 3:02.

Asuna has also made a strong case against TheChyz, the most striking of which is:
Show nested quote +
Would be pretty funny if that inconsistent choice of tense in your most recent statement was actually a slipup lol.
"when I am scum the easiest thing for me to do was to lurk"


Looking at his 'setup analysis' where he wrongly concludes that there is a SK, it may just have been a ploy to root out the remaining blue role, which he was successful at doing now that Asuna has role claimed.

TheChyz tries to reason his way out by saying it was intentional or that it was due to his english, however I think there's enough evidence to strongly say that he screwed up in Night 2 and Day 3 and revealed himself through his actions and words.

##unvote
##vote TheChyz

On January 14 2014 06:09 suki wrote:
Just popping in to say that if theChyz flips scum in an hour, and I'm pretty sure he will, then BigDad is definitely his scumbuddy. TheChyz has been defending BigDad all game while not being under any pressure himself due to his Day 1 antics. It makes sense for a scum who is treated like a townie to back up his buddy who is under suspicion.

At the beginning of the game BigDad stated a soft defense of TheChyz ("I'm leaning toward Balla and TheChyz being townie"), when TheChyz was under pressure for his antics, but ever since that post BigDad has put mild pressure against TheChyz until his full on bus today. The fact that BigDad has never closely analyzed TheChyz I think makes sense if both of them are scum.

I think we've solved the game guys :D I'm getting jitters anticipating the flip.

Unfortunately I have a dinner with my family so I'll miss the deadline but I'll pop back on as soon as I can.



(Literally just took these from a previous meta case on her which you can read here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=442787&currentpage=50#982, even though the case was wrong for that game specifically, I think a lot of the points hold true)

Another thing is she's has good followups to everything and is not afraid to be engaging the town powerhouses (marv, rayn) in conversation, which I was in my first mafia game together with rayn at least. This point isn't as good without flips though.

Her lightheartedness and frustration that nobody is playing around with her in the opening of the game also feels townie to me. Her activity and pressure is good too, she's actively questioning people and creating a good town atmosphere. Her filter is getting up there which is good considering her last town game (9pages on d1). Beyond the non-questioning of rayn's motives and the weird case on koshi she feels good, and I think at least the rayn motive point is something she would ignore generally.

Kush and Toad are likely mafia I think. I'd lynch both. Everybody else is questionable...

Kush has been pretty inactive for kush first off. From what i've played with him, he always opens asking for people to start shit and calls people out immediately when their posts are useless, he didn't do any of that here and there has been plenty of useless posts, even when people are talking to him. I think his reactions to questioning and pressure are bad and I don't think he has any real reasoning for any of the reads he has given out because they look fake.

On February 20 2014 23:59 VIVAX420 wrote:
eh ill bet anyone toad is town. I dont really get marv's case against him. He's a lynch bait player isn't he? lynch bait players usually look less scummy as town. Plus I don't like the people pushing him.


On February 21 2014 06:57 VIVAX420 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 21 2014 06:56 Balla24 wrote:
On February 21 2014 06:52 VIVAX420 wrote:
balla the only thing ive seen from you in scum games is inactivity. from your activity aloneyou are a pretty easy townread imo.


Hmm. That's not what I remember. You used to scumread me early for "not doing shit" and being a "scumhunter extraordinaire yet not doing anything", I feel like I didn't do MUCH in the early game and other people agree yet this game you are not saying the same thing.

Sure activity ended up being a major factor but still, the early read from you is missing.


yeah but i thought you were better than i now realize you are. suck on that.


on rayn/marv:

On February 21 2014 07:01 VIVAX420 wrote:
because i thoght there arguments looked fake


His only scum reads are rayn and marv because their "arguments looked fake" so it's just straight up associative and has nothing to with them individually, I find it hard to believe that anybody would think that when reading them.

I would have really expected him to be on my case earlier instead of others and especially when others were on my case, the last couple of games he was. He was pressuring me into posting a fuck ton and then when I didn't he decided I was scum. He didn't even comment on me.

Toad's only scum read seems to be me. That's pretty bad... especially considering his case on me was almost solely based on early game meta, and even though I agree that my early game could possibly be interpreted as similar to my scum games, I think he was purposefully misrepresenting both what I was saying in the early game, and the context which you can see what I said about it here:

On February 21 2014 02:22 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 21 2014 02:12 Toadesstern wrote:
On February 20 2014 09:10 Balla24 wrote:
The way I see it is these starting votes dont matter at all and by the time we actually start playing the game it still won't matter. Koshi lets start something gogo~
On February 20 2014 09:25 Balla24 wrote:
On February 20 2014 09:22 suki wrote:
Balla is completely in policy talk mode and hasn't even tried to pressure anyone or start anything even though he is clearly here. He also is not playing light hearted like in the previous game where we bulldozed scum.


So is everybody else, only person that is trying to start stuff is prplhz. I don't see anything else that is pressurable like I have in the past 2 games.


That kind of behavior is incredibly hypocritical but whatever, could be anything, right? I don't see that kind of thing happening in his town game. He just does stuff himself and no "hey let's maybe do some shit, right? right?"

Balla24 needs lynching
##vote Balla24


The rest of the case is meta and I can see what you're seeing but you're also only looking at the first couple posts in the game. So if you play like that fine~

However here what I quoted you're ignoring context. I was asking Koshi to do something because he was saying "hey balla is maybe scum" and I wanted him to post his reasoning so we could get into a shit show and people can start the game based on that... but it turns out he didn't.

I was doing the same thing when Suki was withholding saying why I was scum. I wanted them to post it to start something because they kept hinting that they were going to but not doing it. Prplhz WAS the only one starting anything so I don't see what's red about that...


I find it weird that someone would write a meta case on what LITTLE i had in the thread at that time, especially in comparison to what everybody else was doing in regards to me which was just "wait and see". I think it's a weak attempt to try to draw attention to someone who opened pretty weakly.

I think it's annoying that he focused so heavily on the rayn subject and responding to questioning about it. May not be his fault, but even if I was in his shoes I would have attempted to get my opinions out on somebody else as well. I wasn't around so I don't know how rapid fire this stuff was going on. As soon as it ended he wrote a case on me and then nothing else. Looking forward to his contributions in the rest of the day.

Rayn, marv, CFP are all pretty questionable.
Rayn is obviously hard to read. As either alignment he is balls to the walls with content, calling out every little thing. The trend I see is generally as town rayn has a real reasoning for everything and actually follows through with his reads, whereas as scum he is just picking on every little thing to cause a shit show in the thread and he's also much more abrasive. I can't tell which one he is doing now obviously, but the 2 times he has done a "does anybody see what I'm seeing play" reads townie.

Marv is generating a LOT of content and asking plenty of good questions. But he also seems content to just sit within a shit storm and let it happen/contribute to it which is scummy. He has one instance of trying to move the thread forward during one of those shit storms (during the toad debacle) in which he suggests to move forward since we aren't going to get anything more out of it, however that was way after and was actually producing useful content. I'm referencing things like his conversation with kush.

CFP, one of those players who I was referencing who I can't remember what he's done. Even after reading his filter -_- all I remember is his line of questioning vs palmar. I'd be fine with him dying because of it. His read-through of the thread didn't really produce any good content and he hasn't done anything after that besides bitch about how . I liked his followup to my questions so that's good.


Everyone else I have commented on recently I think and are all questionable.
TLDR: would lynch kush/toad atm, suki and prplhz probably town, would be ok with CFP dying but not high on my priority list, would also be ok with oats dying because i'm always uncomfortable with oats but nothing sticks compared to the norm.




Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
February 21 2014 06:31 GMT
#899
what omgusy cases
##vote Balla
No gg, No skill.
VIVAX420
Profile Joined April 2013
556 Posts
February 21 2014 07:13 GMT
#900
On February 21 2014 15:31 Oatsmaster wrote:
what omgusy cases
##vote Balla


how are those cases omgus at all?? do you know what omgus means?
Kush and Vivax
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